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Sat TV Trends: 2nd March 2019

We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, we’ve got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RUK)

2.05 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV4

8/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/9 – Aged 10 years-old
7/9 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
5/9 – Favourites unplaced
5/9 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/9 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/9 – Won their last race
1/9 – Winning favourites
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1

 

2.40 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV4

14/15 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
12/15 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
12/15 – Won over this trip previously
11/15 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/15 – Officially rated 139 or higher
9/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/15 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
7/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
6/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/15 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
2/15 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/15 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/15 - Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/15– Won their last race
Thomas Crapper won the race 12 months ago
Sametegal won the race in 2016
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RUK)

1.50 – 888Sport Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m96y ITV4

Only 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 9 or younger
6/6 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/6 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
5/6 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Finished 4th or better last time out
5/6 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
5/6 – Irish bred
4/6 – Favourites place in the top two
4/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/6 – Ran at Doncaster (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
2/6 – Aged 9 years-old
2/6 – Favourites
2/6 – Won last time out
Brydon Boy won the race in 2017

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2.25 – 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/7 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
4/7 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
4/7 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/7 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/7 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/7 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1

 

3.00 – 888Sport Take ‘Em On Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV4

5 previous running
5/5 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/5– Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/5 – Favourites placed in the top 2
4/5 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
3/5 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
3/5 – Irish bred
The average winning SP in the last 5 years is 9/4

 

3.35 – 888Sport Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV4

14/14 – Aged 8 or older
13/14 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/14 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
11/14 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/14 – Aged 9 or older
10/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Rated 131 or less
8/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/14 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
6/14 – Won their last race
6/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/14 – Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 4 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2


KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)

3.15 – Edinburgh Gin Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV4

10/10 – Aged 7 or younger
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/10 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had raced at Kelso before
3/10 – Winning favourite
3/10 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/10 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 17th Sept 2016

It’s Ayr Gold Cup day at the Scottish venue this Saturday, while the C4/More4 cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 8 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends and stats for each race.

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AYR Horse Racing Trends (More4/RUK)

 

2.00 – William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f More4

12/14 – Previous winners over 6f
12/14 – Finished 4th or better last time out
12/14 – Had never raced at Ayr before
12/14 – Had won once or two times before
11/14 – Winning distance 1 length or further
11/14 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
11/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
10/14 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
9/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Bryan Smart
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1

 

2.35 – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f More4

13/14 – Carried 8-11 or more
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Previous winners over 6f
12/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/14 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
11/14 – Had 5 or more runs that season
10/14 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
10/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
9/14 – Finished 5th or better last time out
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
7/14 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/14 – Trained by David Nicholls
2/14 – Winning Favourites
2/14 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
0/14 – Filly or mare winners
Tatlisu won the race 12 months ago
Huntsmans Close won the race in 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/1

 

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3.10 - William Hill Supports Clic Sargent Ayrshire Handicap Cl2 1m More4

10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Placed 4th or worse in their last race
9/10 – Had won over 1m before
9/10 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won between 2-6 times before
8/10 – Aged 4 or older
8/10 – Winners from stalls 9 or lower
8/10 – Returned between 7/1-14/1 in the betting
8/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
7/10 – Had run at the track before
7/10 – Rated between 89-93
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
6/10 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
2/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/10 – Trained by Michael Dods
2/10 – Trained by Dandy Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
0/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

 

3.45 – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f More4

14/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
11/14 – Failed to win their last race
11/14 – Had won over 6f before
10/14 – Had 7 or more runs that season
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Rated 90-100
9/14 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Carried 9-1 or more
8/14 – Had raced at Ayr before
8/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/14 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (2) last time out
7/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
4/14 – Trained by David Nicholls (won the race 6 times in all)
3/14 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/14– Winning favourites (2 winning favs since 1980)
0/14 – Filly or mare winners
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 16/1

 

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (More4/RUK)

 

1.45 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Registered As The Arc Trial) (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y More4

14/14 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
13/14 – Priced 9/1 or less
11/14 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
8/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/14 – Raced at Newbury before
7/14 – Had won a Group race before
6/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Favourites that won
3/14 – Raced at York last time
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y CH4

11/14 – Won from draw 5 or lower
11/14 – Raced 3 or more times
11/14 – Won over 6f previously
11/14 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
10/14 – Foaled in March or later
10/14 – Favourites placed
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/14 – Won exactly two races before
7/14 – Favourites (or joint) to win
6/14 – Won by an April foal
5/14 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/14 – Won their previous race
4/14 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/14 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/14 – Filly winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 

2.50 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 1m2f6y CH4

12/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/14 – Won from stall 7 or higher
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/14 – Won at least twice previously
9/14 – Won over 1m2f previously
9/14 – Officially rated between 89 and 94
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/14 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/14 – Won by a 4 year-old
8/14 – Won from a double-figure draw
8/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
6/14 – Had raced at Newbury before (2 won)
4/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
What About Carlo won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

 

3.25 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y CH4

14/14 – Raced four or more times that season
12/14 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
12/14 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
12/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/14 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won a Listed or Group race before
10/14 – Won over 5f previously
10/14 - Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Won 4 or more times
6/14 – Previous Group race winners
5/14 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 2 of last 4 winners)
5/14 – Won their last race
5/14 – Favourites (5 of last 6)
4/14 – Mare winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Bandol - Winning pointer, plus track and ground ideal today. Unseated last time at Southwell when hampered, but none-the worse for that. Not the best horse in the yard, but a shockingly bad race and that certainly gives us a decent chance if everything goes right."
Henry Oliver

12/09/16 1st 9/2

"Mad Money - Close third last time here over course and distance. We get in here on the same terms and Richard remains in the saddle. Cheekpieces on to sharpen him up and hoping to ride him a bit more aggressively today. Had 4 weeks off and seems very well - a repeat of that last run would see him go very close."
Tim Vaughan

12/09/16 1st 5/2

"Caspian Piper - A much-improved second last time out at Market Rasen and only just went down in the dying strides. We've given him a month to get over that but seems well at home. A 7lb rise makes life harder but we offset 5lbs of that with Alan's claim so only a few pounds higher here. Slightly shorter trip a plus and expected to be up with the pace again. Hopeful of another big run."
Tim Vaughan

12/09/16 1st 9/2

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