Tag Archive for: newbury racing tips

Betfair Hurdle Trends

Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair Hurdle is a Grade Three contest run over 2m 1/2f in February each year. First run in 1963, the race is always a hotly-contested race, while some punters might know the even better as either the Tote Gold Trophy or the totesport Trophy, being that’s what the race was called before Betfair took over the sponsorship in 2012.

Despite more obvious Champion Hurdle trials on offer during the season the race has thrown up two horses – Persian War and Make A Stand – that went onto glory at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Hurdle later that season, while the 2013 hero - My Tent Or Yours - went onto be second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The 2003 winner, Spirit Leader, went onto land the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival the following month, while in 2017 the Nigel Twiston-Davis-trained Ballyandy won the race before running fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. More recently in 2018, Kalashinkov won this before running second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

12 months ago, in 2021, we saw the Jonjo O'Neill-trained Soaring Glory landed the prize - their second win in the race after also taking the pot in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2022 renewal – this year staged on Saturday 12th February.

 

Recent Betfair Hurdle Winners

2021 - SOARING GLORY (17/2)
2020 – PIC D’ORHY (33/1)
2019 - AL DANCER (5/2 fav)
2018 – KALASHINKOV (8/1 co-fav)
2017 – BALLYANDY (3/1 fav)
2016 – AGRAPART (16/1)
2015 – VIOLET DANCER (20/1)
2014 – SPLASH OF GINGE (33/1)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (5/1 fav)
2012 – ZARKANDAR (11/4 fav)
2011 – RECESSION PROOF (12/1)
2010 – GET ME OUT OF HERE (6/1)
2009 – No race
2008 – WINGMAN (14/1)
2007 – HEATHCOTE (50/1)
2006 – No race
2005 – ESSEX (4/1 fav)
2004 – GEOS (16/1)
2003 – SPIRIT LEADER (14/1)
2002 – COPELAND (13/2)
2001 – LANDING LIGHT (4/1 fav)

Betfair Hurdle Betting Trends

19/19 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
18/19 – Aged 7 or younger
17/19 – Rated 130 or higher
16/19 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
16/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
15/19 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/19 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
15/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/19 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/19 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/19 – Irish bred
8/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 15)
7/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/19 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/19 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 12)
3/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 8)
2/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 10)
2/19  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/19 – Owned by JP McManus
1/19 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
24 of the last 25 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 14/1

 

To many horse racing fans February is not everyone’s favourite, but in more recent years my view is changing slightly on this.

I’ve also covered the Haydock Grand National Trial and newly-named Coral Chase in this month’s edition, but let’s not forget there’s a top Newbury mid-month fixture (Sat 12th), that supplies us with many Cheltenham Festival clues, that includes the Denman Chase, Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) and the Betfair Hurdle – it’s the last-named I’m going to focus on in a bit more detail.

Generally, one of the most competitive handicap hurdles on the calendar, this Grade Three contest is run over 2m 1/2f and is always well-supported by the big National Hunt yards. Backed up in recent years with the Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Nicky Henderson stables winning six of the last ten renewals between them - while 12 months ago the Jonjo O’Neill yard grabbed their second success in the race when Soaring Glory took the honours.

What are the other main trends to look for?

Weight – Being a handicap then weight carried, of course, has to be high up on the short list to look at. ALL of the last 19 winners carried 11st 8lbs or less, which will be the bulk of the runners, but we can take this trend a bit further with 11 of the last 19 carrying 10st 9lbs or less. Last year, this was another positive with Soaring Glory having just 10st 7lbs on his back. That said, a small word of caution is advised here as this weight trend could be taking a turn in the other direction. It’s worth pointing out four of the last five winners carried 11st 1lb or more, with 6 of the last 10 also ticking that stat.

Age – In short here, horses aged 7 or younger have dominated this race in recent times – winning 18 of the last 19. In fact, a 5 or 6 year-old has won ALL of the last 15 renewals too, so really these two ages look the ones to focus on. Since 1988, we’ve only seen two winners aged older than 7 years-old – King Credo (1993) and Geos (2000).

Recent Form – With 16 of the last 19 (84%) winners having raced in the last 9 weeks, this is another trend to look for, while that same percentage also finished in the first three in their most recent outing. With 8 of the last 19 (42%) winners having won last time out too this is a fairly high percentage for such a competitive race. In summary here, we are looking for horses that have been on the course in the last few months, that either won last time out or finished in the top three.

Betting – Despite the race being ultra-competitive, it’s generally one the punters have done well in. Yes, in 2020 we saw a 33/1 winner in Pic D’Orhy. However, in the last 19 runnings we’ve seen a decent 7 winning favourites (37%), while 50% of the last 19 winners came from the top five in the betting and 79% hailed from the first seven in the market.

Stables To Note – In the intro I mentioned the Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Nigel Twiston-Davies yards, who all have a fine recent record in the race. Twiston-Davies has landed three of the last 8 runnings, so is just edging it, but with five overall successes anything the Henderson camp run should also be respected. Nicholls won the race in 2020 and 2012, so will be eager to add more. The other yards to have on your radar is the Gary Moore camp – they’ve won this three times since 2007 and are sure to be firing a few bullets again in 2022 as they also had Fifty Ball, as runner-up in 2021. The Jonjo O’Neill yard are the final stable to respect having taken the race 12 months ago and also back in 2010, with the popular Get Me Out Of Here.

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 15th May 2021

After a week at York, the ITV cameras head to Newbury this Saturday to cover four races including the Lockinge Stakes, while they are also showing three contests from Newmarket – As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the big race trends and tips……

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

14/16 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
12/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Drawn in stall 3
3/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

Note: The 2020 running was staged at Windsor

 

2.25 - Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

16/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/17 – Drawn 4 or lower
12/17 – Had run at Newbury before
12/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
11/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
8/17 – Aged 4 years-old
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won last time out
3 of the last 12 winners were Godolphin-owned
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

 

3.00 - BetVictor London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

16/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Carried 8-10 or more
13/17 – Rated 90 or lower
13/17 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
13/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

 

3.35 - Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

17/17 – Won over a mile before
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
13/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Group One race before
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
12/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/17 – Winning favourites
10/17 – Having their first run of the season
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
5/17 – Godolphin owned
4/17 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Won by a mare
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
3/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 8 times in all)
1/17 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/3

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.05 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

14/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
12/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/14 – Favourites placed in the top three
12/14 – Had won over 1m or further before
11/14 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Draw 1,2 or 3
9/14 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/14 – US-bred winners
4/14 – Godolphin-owned winners
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained John Gosden
3/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 

2.40 –Betway King Charles II Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Winners from stall 4 or lower
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Won only once before
11/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/17 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
10/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Trained by the Hills stable
2/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 6 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

3.15 – Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
14/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Had won over 6f before
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
11/17 – Carried 8-12 or more
11/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
10/17 – Rated between 91-96
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by a mare/filly
3/17 – Won by the Kremlin House (Varian) stable
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-8
9 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 3-7
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

Lockinge Stakes Trends

The Lockinge Stakes is a Group One race staged at Newbury racecourse and run over a distance of 1 mile.

First run in 1958 the contest is for 3 year-olds and older horses and has been won 4 times in the last 10 years by the Richard Hannon yard. In recent years the race has also been dominated by 4 year-olds, with 12 of the last 17 runnings going to horses in that age group, while 14 of the last 17 winners hailed from the first three in the betting.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at past winners of the race, plus are on-hand with all the key ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 15th May.

 

Recent Lockinge Stakes Winners

2019 – MUSTASHRY (9/1)
2018 - RHODODENDRON (10/3 fav)
2017 - RIBCHESTER (7/4 fav)
2016 – BELARDO (8/1)
2015 – NIGHT OF THUNDER (11/4 jfav)
2014 – OLYMPIC GLORY (11/8 fav)
2013 – FARHH (10/3)
2012 – FRANKEL (2/7 fav)
2011 – CANFORD CLIFFS (4/5 fav)
2010 – PACO BOY (8/11 fav)
2009 – VIRTUAL (6/1)
2008 – CREACHADOIR (3/1 fav)
2007 – RED EVIE (8/1)
2006 – PEERESS (4/1)
2005 – RAKTI (7/4 fav)
2004 – RUSSIAN RHYTHM (3/1 fav)
2003 – HAWK WING (2/1 fav)

 

Lockinge Stakes Betting Trends

17/17 – Won over a mile before
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
13/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Group One race before
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
12/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/17 – Winning favourites
10/17 – Having their first run of the season
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
5/17 – Godolphin owned
4/17 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Won by a mare
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
3/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 8 times in all)
1/17 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/3

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 13th June 2020

Another decent day of LIVE ITV this Saturday as the cameras head to Sandown and Newbury to take in seven races across the two venues. And, as always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends and stats.

At Newbury, the Group 3 Diomed Stakes (3.35) is their feature contest, while at Sandown the sprinters are in action for the Listed Scurry Stakes (2:40).

 

So, put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.

Let’s get started!

 

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Newbury Horse Racing Trends

1:50 - It’s Not Rocket Science With MansionBet Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 1m2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Clive Cox is only 2 from 37 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is only 1 from 24 riding 3 year-olds at the track

 

2:25 - Watch And Bet With MansionBet At Newbury Maggie Dickson Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Winners came between stalls 4-6 (inc)
3/3 – Unplaced last time out
3/3 – Had won over 7f in the past
3/3 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
0/3 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 9/1
Trainer Ed Walker won this race 12 months ago
Trainer Richard Hannon won this race in 2018
Trainer William Haggas has a 37% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Marquand is 0-from-31 riding 4+ year-olds at the track

Note: This race is normally run at Musselburgh

 

3:00 - British Stallion Studs EBF/MansionBet Abingdon Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than twice before
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/10 – Drawn between stalls 1-4
7/10 – Had won over at least 1m before
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Ridden by James Doyle
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

 

3:35 - MansionBet Beaten By A Head Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
13/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Aged 5 or older
11/17 – Had raced at Epsom before
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/17 – Ridden by William Buick
Zaaki won the race in 2019
Century Dream won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

Note: This race is normally run at Epsom

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends

2:05 - Sutton Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is only 4 from 52 (8%) with his 3 year-olds at the track

 

2:40 - Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
10/15 – Came from stall 7 or higher
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/15 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/15 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

 

3:15 - Claygate Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 42% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Jamie Osborne has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is only 2 from 30 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jason Watson has a 30% record when riding 4+ year-olds at the track