Tag Archive for: Newmarket Racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 23/06/23

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Apologies for a lack of a column from me yesterday, I was ultimately defeated by technology, logistics and time.

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have, sadly, produced no qualifiers, but our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.45 Redcar
  • 6.40 Musselburgh
  • 7.05 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Down Royal
  • 7.45 Down Royal

...from which the first on the list is clearly the pick, but Matt's team of assembled experts are previewing elsewhere on the site, so this humble little column will turn its attention to Flat Racing HQ for the 7.05 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to firm ground...

Top weight Greysful Storm and the fast finishing Never Ending both won last time out, but the former does now step up a class, as do Golspie and The Jackler, whilst bottom weight Golden Maverick is up two classes.

We've quite a few that are unxposed in handicaps with this being a handicap debut for Golspie, Never Ending and The Jackler, whilst it's only Feud's second attempt.

He's also been off the track the longest, but a 7-week break shouldn't be the reason he can't win here and the rest of the field have all had near enough a fortnight or more to recover from their last run.

The top two on the card are the only ones to have won at this trip and none of the nine have won here before, as shown on Instant Expert, which also shows 3 winners on similar ground conditions and four Class 4 winners...

There's not much data there for us to build up a clear enough picture, so we should switch to the place stats...

...which lead me to suggest that Feud, The Jackler and Golden Maverick won't be featuring much in my thoughts from this point forward. Removing those three from the equation also takes away the two widest drawn runners, which might not be a bad thing based on these draw stats...

...that point to the first four stalls being the preferred place to run from...

...which would be good news for Mighty River, Never Ending and Golspie who occupy the first three stalls. The pace stats for those same races then go on to say that the chances of winning this race increase the further forward a horse runs and that those racing prominently actually make the frame slightly more often than leaders. Based on the field's last few runs...

...I'd expect Mighty River to be bang up with the pace as he shoots out of stall 1 and this pace/draw combination represents the best chance for horses to win here...

Summary

Low draw and fast starts are the order of the day here and that's Mighty River. He's in good nick (2nd over this trip on the Rowley LTO) and has won at the trip, so he'd be the one to beat for me. If he does get out quickly, I suspect he might well drag Never Ending along with him, whilst further down the draw order, the in-form Island Star could very well have something to say in the outcome.

No odds available at 3.10pm on Thursday, so I'll revisit later when I check the price of possible E/W runner John Chard VC who has led in a couple of his last four outings.

Mighty River and John Chard VC opened up at 7/1 and 12/1 respectively, which were decent enough prices IMO.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.23 Cork
  • 2.50 Newmarket
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 5.15 Newmarket
  • 7.25 Doncaster
  • 7.40 Hexham

...from which, I'm heading back to HQ, but not for either of the Appleby/Buick races, but to the 5.15 Newmarket from our 'free' list. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good/good to form ground...

Bottom weight Chasseral won her last outing, Shaquille won his last two (and is three from four) and Expert Agent comes here off the back of three straight wins, whilst only Tenjin and Almaty Star are winless in their recent formline. Mind you, the latter has been placed in two of his three career starts, but the former is winless in eight and has won just one of twelve overall.

Only Tenjin, Shaquille and Ferrous raced at Class 2 LTO, as Brave Nation last raced in a Listed contest (but was last home), as did Bonny Angel (6th of 16). Washington Heights now steps up one class, Expert Angel & Eminency are up two classes, whilst Buccabay, Almaty Star & Chasseral all raced in Class 5 company most recently!

Plenty of these handciap experience, as it's just a second attempt for Washington Heights and Ferrous and it's debut day for Brave NAtion, Shaquille, Buccabay, Almaty Star and Chasseral.

None of these have won here before, mind you only four have raced here, just once each, but all bar Brave Nation, Washington Heights and Almaty Star have at least won over this trip.

Most of the field have been seen in the last four weeks, but Shaquille has been off for five months, Chasseral last raced in September 2022, whilst it's August 2022 that Brave Nation was last seen and six of the field have already scored on good or good to firm ground, according to Instant Expert...

As is often the case with early season three year olds, the place form tells us a lot more about the runners. It doesn't usually highlight a winner off such small pieces of data, but it does 'warn' you of those who might have already been tried and failed ie Brave Nation has toiled on good to firm since winning on debut, Tenjin's 'best' (and I use the word loosely) form has come on the A/W and Expert Agent has also done his best work away from the turf.

I think I've happy to discard all three at this point and Tenjin is unlikely to run after already losing here on Friday!

You'll probably not be too surprised to find there's no discernible draw bias over the straight 6f here...

...and the key to winning those races above has been pretty simple, get out quickly, run as fast as you can and hold on for as long as possible...

...which is ideal for the hat-trick seeking Shaquille from stall 11 of 11...

Summary

Shaquille ticks most boxes here, he's three from four, hasn't been treated too harshly on handicap debut, his jockey is in good form and rides this track well. Shaquille had the most 'green' on Instant Expert and has the best pace profile for this type of race. The only drawback is the 154 day break since his last run/win. That said, he did win on his racing debut and I'd expect him to be the one to beat here.

Sadly, others also expect him to win and the best we can get at 6.25pm is a widely available 3/1, but that's probably just about fair. You can then perm any two from six for the places, but the one that (mildly) interested me was Washington Heights. He probably needed the run when 9th at Thirsk recently after seven months off. Five furlongs was too sharp and he didn't enjoy the soft ground. He had ended last season finishing third of sixteen in a Listed race over 6f at Redcar, a couple of lengths behind a subsequent Group 3 winner and he'd a couple behind him who have also won since. A repeat of that run puts him in contention and 10/1 E/W (generally, but Sky & Coral pay four places) might be a good option.

Please Note : Family duties beckon on Sunday, so my next column will appear on Monday for Tuesday's racing. Enjoy your weekend however you spend it.

Racing Insights, Friday 05/05/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Musselburgh
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Cheltenham
  • 7.55 Newcastle

The first of those is the 'best' on paper as a Group 2 race, but with a small field and a likely short favourite, I'll take the next on the list, the competitive-looking 3.00 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, which is unusual at this level and more surprisingly, only bottom weight Lord Rapscallion made thframe, but even that was at Class 4, as he now steps up two classes. Persuasion and Darkness are both also up from Class 3.

The Gatekeeper did win three races ago and Final Watch won four starts back, but the rest are winless in five. They have all, however, previously won at a trip similar to this one and three have won here at HQ; Accidental Agent scored over course and distance just over a year ago and Final Watch did so almost two years ago (and has won over 7f on the July course), whilst Star Of Orion won here over 6f on debut almost three years ago and has since scored over this trip on the July course.

The bottom three on the card could be excused for needing a run, as Bass Player, Accidental Agent and Star of Orion return from breaks of 22 to 27 weeks. Top weight Persuasion is back from a two-month rest and the other four have all raced in the past four weeks with Darkness & Lord Rapscallion out as recently as last week.

Instant Expert tells us that we have four previous good to firm ground winners, one trying it for the first time and one with a really poor win record! As for Class 2 racing, just two have wins under their belt and two have really toiled...

And with a  0 from 11 record on good to firm and an even worse 0/25 at Class 2, I won't be rushing out to back Lord Rapscallion. He's not great at this trip either, nor is Star of Orion who also has a dismal Class 2 record. I'm fairly sure neither of these would be winning this one. Elsewhere. Persuasion has struggled at the trip, but those 2 wins from 15 are his only two wins in a 21-race career, so I doubt he wins this either.

Yet, his place record at the trip is pretty good and only Accidental Agent's poor place record on good to firm ground stands out as being unwanted...

...he does seem to either win or not make the frame on good to firm!

Unusually for a straight seven furlongs, we do have a slight draw bias and similarly surprisingly, it seems to favour those drawn highest in eight runner contests...

...although the advantage isn't huge. Pace, however, is a totally different kettle of fish...

Those setting the pace make the frame in half of the races, but tend to only win 1 in 14 or so, leaving the door open for the stalking horses to come in and snatch the race late on, even to the extent that hold-up horses can often watch the leaders take each other on, do too much and be left vulnerable to a late run, but for now, a prominent position looks the best option, which based on recent runs...

...might make connections of The Gatekeeper a little wary of his ability to make all from the front. The pace/draw heat map...

...suggests we should focus on...

  • the mid-drawn to high prominent runners
  • or the low drawn leaders.

Summary

Our race pace/draw combinations look like this

...where the Bass Player looks the nearest thing to a mid/high drawn prominent runner, but he has been in such poor form that we might want to wait and see how his recent wind op has changed him. The Gatekeeper, however, does seem to the low drawn leader role and based on his winning run at the start of March, he's probably the one to beat here.

He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills, which I think is more than fair and the one who might cause him most bother is probably Final Watch. The rest are a fairly mediocre bunch for a Class 2 contest and it might well be Accidental Agent or Darkness who complete the frame here.