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Racing Insights, 23rd September 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab in the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view.

The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating.

The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be

  • 1.25 Perth
  • 2.15 Listowel
  • 3.20 Newmarket
  • 4.05 Pontefract
  • 5.25 Wolverhampton

One of our five free races is a Listed race, so we'll look at that here. It's the 3.20 Newmarket, where 10 runners will race over two miles on good to soft ground for a prize of almost £29,500...

Only Max Vega, Morando and Nayef Road are without a relatively recent win, whilst both island Brave & Rhythmic Intent were winners last time out. Both LTO winners are stepping up from Class 2 today, as are Max Vega and Roberto Escobarr, whilst all the field have raced in the last six weeks, with four (Nayef road, Rhythmic Intent, Eileendover & Crowns Major) having been seen in the past fortnight.

The age spread is 4 to 8 and if this was a handicap, Nayef Road would berst in at the weights with Noonday Gun worst off, rated some 19lbs inferior.

Positive trainer stats for Roberto Escobarr, Rhythmic Intent and Sleeping Lion on recent form plus Morando and Sleeping Lion for course records. Nayef Road's jockey is in good touch as re the riders of Morando, Noonday Gun and Sleeping Lion, but Jamie Spencer (Crowns Major) is struggling right now. The jockeys highlighted for good course records are aboard Max Vega, Morando and Sleeping Lion, but Shane Kelly (Eileendover) has toiled here of late.

Roberto Escobarr won a Listed race at York in June and was only beaten by four lengths in a Group 3 at the same venue four weeks later. He wasn't at this best when 6th in the Ebor, but was second of all those drawn in the first eight stalls. It'll be interesting to see how he copes with 2m for the first time, but his two Class 1 York runs suggest he could get involved.

Crowns Major stayed 2m½f on his Irish debut five months ago, landing a 22-runner bumper at Punchestown and was also a half-length runner-up of 19 in a soft ground handicap at Galway in late July, so trip and going should be fine, but this is a big race for a UK debut.

Island Brave is arguably better on the A/W (7 from 22) than on turf (4/22), but landed a Class 2 handicap over 1m6f at Haydock earlier this month, bringing to an end a run of seven runs without making the frame. He stays further than and whilst maybe not as good as some of the others, he'll still be running when many are struggling. Could make the frame here, especially as....

Max Vega looked really useful in his first three races, some two years back, culminating in a Group 3 win here at Newmarket over 1m2f. Since then, he has only raced six times, finishing 502075 and was well beaten on his only crack at two miles. He finished strongly in the Ebor last time out, but I have doubts about him getting the trip here, despite...

Morando is a respectable 7 from 28 on the Flat, but is winless in nine since landing a Group 3 race at Ascot almost two years ago. He did, however, look like he was coming back to form when third of seven at Chester last time out, beaten by just over a length in another Listed contest and if the rain comes, he'll be happier.

Nayef Road won a 2m½f Group 3 race at Newcastle last summer before being beaten by only the mighty Stradivarius in a pair of Group 1 stayers at Ascot & Goodwood. he hasn't quite been as good this term, unfortunately, but was third of six and only 6.5 lengths behind 'Strad' again in the Doncaster Cup last time out. That's no disgrace and this is a drop in quality for a horse that stays, won't mind a bit of dampness underfoot and likes coming here...

Noonday Gun is just 2 from 11 at Class 4/5, but did tackle a Listed race at Chester last time out finishing 5th of 7 in a tight finish where he lacked closing speed over 1m6½f and was more than a length and a half behind the re-opposing Morando who was third that day. I'd be surprised if he was anywhere near the reckoning here, despite the form of his jockey...

Rhythmic Intent is probably more reliable/workmanlike than he is a superstar, but he plugs on and runs his race more often than not, making the frame in 12 of 22 on turf. Soft ground doesn't faze him, he goes best within a month of his last run and was a winner of a Class 2 handicap at Doncaster less than a fortnight ago. This will be the furthest trip he's tackled, but if 'getting' it, he could surprise a few by making the frame at a price.

Sleeping Lion last won on turf a little over two years ago and hasn't made much impression in six efforts since, making the frame just once. He did, however, land a Class 2 A/W handicap at Kempton at the start of the season, but his three runs since then have seen him finish 12th of 15, 4th of 12 and 7th of 8 and that's not good enough for a race like this, even if...

Eileendover is the only filly in the race and only made her debut in November of last year. She kicked her career off with a hat-trick of bumper wins, the last of which was a Listed race over 2m1f on heavy ground in January. That should assure us of her stamina if nothing else.She hasn't quite hit those heights on the Flat yet, but has run consistently well in five efforts. She has won once in a Class 2 handicap here at Newmarket over 1m6f and her average margin of defeat in the other four is only around 5.5 to 6 lengths, so I'd expect her to be there or thereabouts without actually doing enough to win.

And now, our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

My take on the above win/place graphics is that Roberto Escobarr and Crowns Major are in largely new surroundings. Island Day and Noonday gun don't look well suited right now. The winner might well come from Max Vega, Morando, Nayef Road and Rhythmic Intent based on those numbers, whilst we don't really have enough relevant form about Sleeping Lion and/or Eileendover, although the former does like the trip.

Many flat races are heavily influenced by pace, draw and the interaction between the two. Regular readers will know that I don't set as much aside for the draw in these long distance races as I do for the sprints etc, but that doesn't mean the draw stats have no validity and with only a small number of similar races to consider, we should tread carefully, but...

...the initial inference is that those drawn highest fare best and when we look at the data stall by stall...

...horses drawn in 1-7 have 5 wins from 63 (7.94%) with 18 (28.57%) making the frame, but those drawn 8 and higher are 4 from 18 (22.22%) with 8 (44.44%) making the frame. These are small sample sizes, of course, but those drawn 8 and above seem 2.8 times more likely to win and 1.6 times more likley to place, which could be good news for Crowns major, Island Brave and Rhythmic Intent.

The pace stats seem more clear...

...with the basic premise being sit and wait. As you're probably aware, we log the running styles of all horses, awarding them a pace score of 1-4 where 1 = held up, 2 = mid-div, 3 = prominent and 4 = led. A horse with a 4-race score of 4 is a confirmed hold-up horse and one with 16 is an out and out pace-setter. This is how our ten runners have raced most recently...

We actually have no out and out pace or hold-up horses here, but Max Vega has two scores of 4, whilst Nayef Road, Noonday Gun and Island brave have all made the pace once recently. Max vega is a strange one, as he's also been held up twice, as have Island Brave, Crowns Major, Morando and Sleeping Lion.

We can then combine pace and draw as follows...

...that's a fairly telling picture, as long as we remember that it is only based upon nine races and when we add our runners to that heatmap...

...Nayef Road and then Roberto Escobarr are best suited of those drawn low or even in stalls 1-7. Those in 4 to 7 don't have a favourable make-up at all, but those in the high draws are sitting nicely in the green. And I think that those in stalls 1, 2, 8, 9 and 10 are the half of the field I want to be with here.

Summary

So, at this point, I've already set aside those in stalls 3 to 7 and I now just need to take two more out before deciding whether to have a bet or not. Crowns Major is probably the weakest of my five and this represents a huge step up for his UK debut, so he's out of my reckoning and then based on pace/draw, I'd say Roberto Escobarr is worst off there of my four survivors, I don't have enough collateral form data about him and he's conceding weight all round, so he's the final evictee.

That leaves us with Island Brave, Nayef Road and Rhythmic Intent as my three against the field and I prefer Nayef Road to the others. His perennial fly in the ointment, Stradivarius, isn't here for once and it could well be our boys day. He's 7/2 here, which is borderline acceptable, but very skinny indeed.

Island Brave looks set fair for a place ahead of Rhythmic Intent, but with the pair of them priced at 11/1 and 14/1, they might make for nice E/W bets, especially if Nayef Road shortens any further.

 

 

Racing Insights, 28th August 2021

It's Bank Holiday Weekend and Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users.

Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This TJC report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

In addition to that report, we also offer the following free races...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 3.55 Newmarket
  • 5.05 Newmarket
  • 5.40 Redcar
  • 6.10 Redcar
  • 6.45 Redcar

The first of those races is the best of the bunch as a Group 3 contest, but it only has 5 runners and a likely odds on favourite, so next best is the first of the two from HQ, the 3.55 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 2, Flat handicap for 3yo+ horses over 1m6f on Good to Firm (good in places) ground and these are the contenders for the £20,616 prize...

FORM : Live Your Dream and Dancing Harry bring the best recent results to the table and both seek a hat-trick here. Lucky Deal look most likely to struggle despite making the frame LTO.

CLASS : Lucky Deal, Speedo Boy and Dancing Harry all step up in class from Class 3 LTO

COURSE / DISTANCE : Speedo Boy and Byron Flyer have yet to win either at Newmarket or over this 1m6f trip. The other five have all won at this distance, with three of them (Live Your Dream, Hochfeld and Dancing Harry doing it here at this venue.

LAST SEEN : All have been seen in the last seven weeks and Hochfeld (10 days) aside, all have had at least a fortnight's rest.

Live Your Dream has never been out of the first three home in seven starts and has won four of his last five at Classes 2, 3, 4 and 5, culminating in a course and distance success here at this grade last time out. He won by three quarters of a length that day and a 7lb rise in weight makes this tougher.

Hochfeld has certainly been busy this season with this being his 13th start. Sadly he has only won one of twelve this season and just two of his last thirty-six. He did run a good 4th of 14 at York last time out, but still carries too much weight for my liking. Perhaps his jockey's 7lb claim will help?

Lucky Deal is better on the A/W (5/13) than he is on turf (3/22) and although he was third here over course an distance last time out, that only tells half the story. He was actually 3rd of 4, behind the re-opposing Dancing Harry by 8 lengths in a lower grade. A 2lb drop in weight probably doesn't help him enough here in his bid to win on turf for the first time in just over 27 months.

Speedo Boy has won on turf, A/W and over hurdles and comes here in good nick (2212) albeit in lower grades. In those four runs, he beaten by a neck twice at Goodwood (C3, 1m6f) and Chester (C4, 2m) before landing a Class 3, 2-miler at Ascot. He was then beaten by just a nose conceding 16lbs to winner Byron Hill (C3, 2m) at Nottingham next/last time out. Stamina won't be his undoing, but up in class and weight to a mark of 92 leaves him little room for error.

Byron Flyer is, at the age of 10, the old-timer in this field. He comes here on a 14-race losing streak since winning over fences (2/2 in chases) at Ludlow in early October 2019 and his record on the Flat is 12 defeats since a win in early October 2018 when he completed a Class 2 hat-trick off marks of 95, 98 and 102. He's a stayer, for sure and now off 89, he'd have to have a chance here, if only he wasn't 10 and in such poor form.

Dancing Harry was 1 from 13 six weeks ago, but has won his last two both over this trip off marks of 78 and 80, the latter being a 5 length success here over course and distance. Those wins will make him popular here, but excitement should be tempered by a 5lb rise in weight allied to a step up to Class 2, where he is 0/3.

Indigo Times has won four of his seven starts this year, but his form on turf reads last of eight, 4th of 8, last of six and 8th of 10. He's vvery good on the A/W with 6 wins, 2 places from 13 runs and he's probably better remaining there.

Win & Place form relative to the task in hand is available via the Instant Expert tab...

..where Hochfeld  and Dancing Harry would appear to be best suited to take the favourite on.

As with most longer Flat races, there's not a massive draw bias to be had here...

...and the main takeaway from the pace stats are that you don't want to be backing hold-up horses

and when we combine pace and draw, we get...

However, I'd not take the Mid-Div/High 100% strike rate too seriously, as it's based on just one runner, as is the Mid-Div/Low at 0%. The other two 0% combos are real, though : Mid/led are 0 from 5 and Low Hold Ups are 0 from 9. We know where our seven are drawn and we know how they've ran recently so we can put them on that heatmap, as follows...

It looks like there could well be a frantic start here with Dancing Harry, Speedo Boy and Hochfeld all liking to get on with things. The favourite's tactics are usually to wait and then pick off the tired front runners and that could happen if the front three burn each other out. That said, they might just build an unassailable lead and turn it into a three-horse race.

Summary

Despite the pace/draw heatmap above, this really should be down to the fav Live Your Dream to win/lose. I fear a frenetic pace will rule many of these out by giving them too much ground to make up and if the fav doesn't win, then one of the three pace options should step up. Of those, I think Dancing Harry might tire under added weight and his record at this level isn't good, so he's not for me.

As for Speedo Boy/Hochfeld, I don't have much between them on my figures and it might well come down to who gets the best ride from their jockey. Hochfeld's jockey is a 7lb claimer with a sub-10% strike rate in the last two months, whilst William Buick (Speedo Boy0 has won 26 of his last 100 rides on this track alone, so Speedo's Boy gets the nod.

Speedo is a reasonable 4/1 right now and that might drift a little if more money comes for the 6/4 fav. I can't back the fav at 6/4, because I don't think it's that clearcut, even if he is the best here. I will, however, have a little nibble at Speedo's 4/1

 

Racing Insights, 13th August 2021

War Brave finished stone last of seven this afternoon at Ffos Las, but second pick Great Havana justified favouritism to win under the red-hot David Probert at 10/3, a more realistic price than last night's 5/2. It might sound like shoulda, woulda, coulda but I'd have taken 10/3 about the winner. I did also say..."I have Great Havana marginally ahead of Whispering Winds"... The latter was the 14/1 runner-up, just half a length back.

So, financially not great for me, but we were in the right ball park for identifying possibles. Perhaps we'll get closer still on Friday, where the free feature is the Horses For Courses (H4C) report which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting.

In addition to this, we also have a selection of free races, of course and for Friday, they are...

  • 1.30 Wolverhampton
  • 2.00 Wolverhampton
  • 5.00 Newmarket
  • 5.10 Tramore
  • 5.35 Newmarket
  • 7.00 Curragh

My settings for the H4C report are fairly demanding...

...meaning I've no qualifiers for Friday, so I'll take a look at one of our free races from above and the one that looks the best to analyse is the 5.35 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, Flat Handicap over 6f on Good To Firm ground and it's worth £5,400 to one of the following...

Able Kane has been running well for some time now with three wins and three runner-up finishes from his last eight outings and was a good second of 25 at Goodwood last time out when beaten by less than two lengths in a £26k Class 2 handicap on heavy ground. Down two classes and back on his favoured quicker ground, I'd expect another bold run.

Pistoletto last won way back in May 2019 and as a result, his mark has come down from 98 to today's 85. He also drops two classes to run here after being beaten by just over 7.5 lengths at Ascot last month. This is easier (on paper) and he's down 4lbs from that run, his jockey is riding well (4 from 14 in the last fortnight) and he could well threaten the places.

Raatea is a consistent enough sort who always seems to run his race, but a record of just one place from six starts on Turf is a concern. He's rarely beaten by far, but di go down by 11 lengths after a dreadful start at York last time out. He's probably best left alone until he's back on the A/W if truth be told, although his yard have 3 wins and 2 places from 15 here over the last five years and his jockey has 8 wins and 4 places from 39 here over the past 12 months.

Phoenix Star's form has been pretty solid for some time now, finishing in the first four home 14 times from his last 15 outings (4 x 1st, 5 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd, 4 x 4th). The bulk of his racing is done on the A/W, but he did win a Class 3, 5f handicap at Sandown two starts ago and now down in class, he's just 5lbs higher here, so has a chance of being involved.

Yimou is similar to the horse above in that he drops in class here after a fairly consistent bout of form, although he hasn't actually won since landing a Class 3, 5f sprint at Windsor off a mark of 83 last July. That said, he has made the frame in seven of those eleven subsequent defeats and now down in class after a 1.75 length defeat as a runner-up here over C&D a week ago, could well make the frame again.

Al Saariyah is another in decent form, who since finishing 6th on her debut at Leicester 14 months ago has two wins and three runner-up finishes from seven outings. She won by a length at Windsor over this trip last time out and despite being raised 3lbs for the win, should be there or thereabouts again, especially with her useful 4lb weight for age allowance.

Triggered has won just 3 of 24 races to date and that's despite winning on both his third and fourth starts. He then waited almost three years for another win on his 22nd run, when wearing first-time blinkers. On a positive note, all his wins have been at this trip, on good ground or quicker, he's 2 from 3 in the month of August and the blinkers are still on, but I doubt he's getting close here.

Recall The Show has a very healthy place record of 10 from 17, winning three times, all in a 5-race spell from mid-September 2020 to the end of this April. The last of those wins moved his mark up to today's 79 and he hasn't quite been able to run to that mark just yet. He hasn't been too far away of late, but others hold more appeal here on current form.

Hyde Park Barracks is the other 3yr old in the race and he, too, receives 4lbs for that, but I think he's likely to need far more to get involved here on his yard debut for Michael Wigham after leaving Aidan O'Brien for just 6,000 Guineas. He was 8th of 12 and 8th of 13 in his last two runs in Ireland (Sept/Oct '20) and is best watched after a break of 294 days, although jockey Josephine Gordon is riding well right now (4 wins and 4 places from 19 in the last fortnight) and his new handler has six wins and a place from his last 25 runners here.

Legende Dart ran really well to finish as a runner-up in a 7-runner maiden handicap at Yarmouth, beaten by just three quarters of a length eight days ago. But that was off his mark of 61 and he's 5lbs out of the weights here off an assumed/imposed 66. He's also up two classes here and you've got to think he's likely to be out of his depth in this one.

Jack Ryan shares some similarities with the runner above, as he is also up two classes from a runner-up finish over 6f last week, when he took advantage of a tumbling handicap mark that had dipped as low as 52. Having to carry a stone more than that mark here makes life really tough for him and I'd be surprised if he isn't last home.

So, that's brief overview of the runners with a little bit of personal interpretation/opinion thrown in and now it's time to focus in upon the actual race here. Just to recap, it's a 6f, Class 4 handicap on good to form ground and Instant Expert will show us how they've performed in similar contests...

As with all traffic light systems (aside from the Government's confusing/ever-changing travel advice), it's pretty straightforward with green being the optimum colour followed by amber (proceed with caution). On good to firm ground Al Saariyah, Recall The Show, Yimou and Able Kane catch the eye with Al Saariyah and Yimou the pick at this grade.

None of the field have won here, but both Yimou and Recall The Show have raced here unsuccessfully on four occasions. The field has a combined 18 wins at today's trip, including 16 in handicap company whilst Yimou actually runs off a mark lower than his last win. Mind you, that was just over a year ago and the more in-form runners aren't too much higher than their own last wins.

According to the Geegeez course guide, the July Course is notoriously good for front runners but with the rails constantly moved on the July Course too there’s no measurable draw bias to go by.

We can look back over similar past races to verify that claim and here are the draw stats...

And although odd stalls here and there haven't provided as many winners/placers as others, there's no actual "corridor" of stalls that are to be wished for or avoided. It's a straight 6f, so there's no need to jockey for a position on a bend etc, if all horses run straight, they've all the same distance to run and this helps to negate the draw to an extent. Obviously stall 1 has the rail to keep him/her straight, but generally I'd say there's no draw bias here.

Pace, however, is a different kettle of fish. As per the guide, it pays to lead with front-runners wining more than double the races you'd expect. Those racing in mid-division also fare better than expected...

...but hold-up horses have really struggled. 200 hold-up horses have managed a dozen wins, equal to the number of wins from 65 front-runners and the place results follow similar pattern. And if we look at where the leading/mid-division winners have come from, it's quite interesting. Leaders win most often from a middle draw, then a low draw, whilst mid-div winners come from high draws then middle draws...

The racecard tells us the pre-determined draw, this is common knowledge, but Geegeez also log the running style of every horse in every race and we can see how each runner has gone in each of their last four outings...

Leaders score 4, 3 for prominent runners, mid-div = 2 and hold-up horses are scored at 1, so you can see that Jack Ryan and Raatea are confirmed hold-up horses which will make life difficult here and we can also see that there's no out and out front-runner, but based on their last two outings, Able Kane, Al Saariyah, Hyde Park Barracks and Recall The Show might be the ones to set the pace.

Those four are drawn in stalls 2,3,4 and 9, so the pace is likely to be on the lower half of the draw. There's very little pace in stalls 5 to 8, so Able Kane in box 9 will probably come across to join the other three likely pacemakers to make it a 4-way go.

Summary

Pace is the key here and I expect Able Kane, Al Saariyah, Hyde Park Barracks and Recall the Show to be the ones setting the fractions. Hyde Park Barracks is coming off a long lay-off and wasn't really all that before his break, so he's off my list. Recall The Show looks like the assessor has him right now and although running his races well enough, does manage to get beat off this current mark, so he's not for me either.

As for Able Kane and Al Saariyah, both of them are in really good form, they're going to be up with the pace and I'm having those as my 1-2, especially with Able Kane having ran so well at Class 2 last time out. As for the final place, you could make a case for any of Pistoletto, Yimou, Phoenix Star and Raatea : I think it's going to be a tight contest, but I think I've got them in that order. Pistolette is rarely held-up, unlike the other three and could well take advantage of a dropping handicap mark and a double drop in class to nick a place here.

The opening shows also suggest a tight encounter with my preference Able Kane priced at 11/2, whilst Al Saariyah is a 4/1 shot. Bet365 offer 14/1 about Pistoletto which might be a nice E/W or place bet too.

Racing Insights, 6th August 2021

Friday's free feature is the fabulous Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your own discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting.

We also have half a dozen full free racecards for you and they are...

  • 4.10 Brighton
  • 5.00 Tipperary
  • 5.52 Haydock
  • 6.38 Newmarket
  • 6.52 Haydock
  • 7.00 Tipperary

My fairly exacting criteria for the H4C report mean that I've no qualifiers for Friday, so I'll revert to the free races for my column today and and the best of the UK races (on paper, at least) is the one from HQ, the 6.38 Newmarket. It might well only have 6 runners, but it's a £13,500 Class 2 3yo+ flat handicap on ground expected to be good to firm, as you'd hope for in early August. They're watering to keep it that way and here are the six (was seven) runners racing over a mile and a half for the prize...

A good-looking, if small, field for this one and all six have recent wins to their name, but the lower half of the card appears to be in the better form and Volcanic Sky's three donuts look a worry at first glance. Boss Power and State of Bliss both step up in class and the latter was seen most recently, having raced just a week ago. The others won't be rusty though, as all have been out in the past 20 to 37 days.

Bottom weight State of Bliss receives 18lbs from Zabeel Champion thanks to a huge 10lb weight for age allowance, something trainer Mark Johnston often exploits, whilst our Geegeez SR figures suggest a tight battle. The list of trainers looks like a mini-who's who and all have green positive icons by their names, whilst the jockeys aboard Zabeel Champion & Makram race well here and are in good nick.

Zabeel Champion has 6 wins and 2 places from 11 on the Flat and despite a big (21L) defeat last time out at this trip/class, will be a contender here. He has raced on soft/heavy on his last two outings but prior to those he landed a hat-trick of wins culminating with a C2, 1m4f win on the Rowley track here at HQ. Now back on quick ground (2 from 3 on Gd to Fm), we should see him in a truer light.

Global Heat proved he was no mug in the winter of 2018/19 finishing 2321 and then was only beaten by a neck over 1m2f at Chelmsford last September coming back from 496 days off track. Sadly, he was then off track for another 266 days prior to being pulled up in this year's Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot and then finished last of 12, beaten by 37 lengths last time out. He'll be nearer the back than the front, I suspect.

Volcanic Sky is also likely to be at the wrong end of the results sheet, based on his form since coming back to the UK. He actually won a Group 3, 1m6f race at Meydan just over five months ago, but in two UK runs this summer, was last of 13 (52 lengths) in the (Listed) Wolferton Stakes at Ascot and then 11th of 15 over 1m6f here four weeks ago.

Boss Power is 2 from 4 this year so far, but that's 2 A/W wins and 2 turf losses, although he was a runner up over this trip in a Class 3 contest at Leicester off a mark of 89 four months ago. His win last time out was a career best at Kempton, but he might now be vulnerable up in class and weight (+5lbs) to a mark of 96 after winning by a length and a quarter.

Makram had a good 2020, winning two of five starts with a runner-up finish on debut for good measure. He looked like he needed the run when beaten by a couple of lengths over a mile here at HQ (Rowley, though) in April after 234 days rest, but has 2 runner-up berths and a win since that day, staying on well over 1m2f in all three. The step up in trip should suit him, but he too is up 6lbs, but did win in this grade fairly comfortably LTO.

State of Bliss is the only 3 yr old in the contest and as such receives a whopping 10lbs allowance, but I fear he'll need it if he's to win here. He landed a 7.5f novice race at Chester second time out, last September but is winless in six since, but always in the first three home. He has that unlikeable knack of finding one (or two) just a little bit too good for him, as typified by his three runner-up finishes in July, beaten by half a length, a short head and a neck respectively. His last runs have been off a mark of 84, but he's now up to 86 despite not winning and I suspect he'll find one or two to beat him again here.

That's a general overview of the runners, littered with some stats and my own thoughts, but relevant race data in similar races looks like this...

You don't need me to tell which one catches the eye there, so my other observations are that Makram & Volcanic Sky haven't quite got on top enough at this grade, although the former has been placed in two of his three defeats. State of Bliss is 0/4 at both the going and the field size, but has actually finished 3322 in them. Zabeel Champion and Makram are 3lbs and 6lbs higher than their last wins, which is understandable but there are three huge differentials of 16 to 25lbs on that graphic, because they date back to last turf wins. They've raced and won off higher marks on the A/W but that TLD column deals with whatever surface the current races are on.

The pace here on the July course in 1m4f handicaps is very important. You essentially want to lead or be very close to the leaders, as seen here...

...where prominent runners/leaders have landed 23 of the 28 contests. As for the draw, there general feeling is that a low draw works best, but you don't want to be trapped on the rail. I've expanded the field size parameters to 5-7 runners to give me a slightly bigger sample size...

...as usual, I'll treat stalls 6 and 7 as one entity with 11.11% winners and 26.67% placers and the takeaway here is that you ideally want boxes 2 to 4 or possibly 2 to 5. This draw bias allied to the need to race up front is best shown in the pace/draw heatmap as follows...

..whilst the corresponding chart showing the draw for this race and our runners' past running styles looks like this...

It looks like Zabeel Champion and State of Bliss will attempt to force the pace. There are three horses between them, so I suspect Zabeel might well drift slightly away from the rail, whilst Bliss will come across to join him. It could then be a bit of a bunfight in behind them, but Makram has raced prominently in the past, so he might want to keep a closer eye on the leaders here.

Summary

All the way through, I've favoured Makram, Zabeel Champion and State of Bliss as my 1-2-3 here, but I'm now thinking that back on quicker ground off an unchanged mark and looking likely put some distance between him and Makram that Zabeel Champion might well be the one to side with here. I can't advise State of Bliss, as losing becomes habit-forming and despite receiving weight, he might not repel Makram late on either.

Either way, I expect a tight affair, but if I stick my neck out it's Zabeel Champion for me and close for second between Makram and State of Bliss. Much will depend on how far back Makram sits.

Zabeel is a 3/1 shot and I think that's fair, whilst State of Bliss' 13/2 ticket is almost tempting enough for a small E/W or place bet.

Racing Insights, 9th July 2021

England duly won last night and then Sir Ron Priestley made all as expected today in the the Princess Of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes and the 1/2 fav (yes, 1/2!) Al Aasy just couldn't quite reel him in, giving us a very nice 11/2 success. Those who followed the summary and went for the exacta made another winning bet at 5.7/1, but the value of course was in the straight win bet. I think Sir Ron had been underestimated by plenty of people, but he beat Pyledriver and the Geegeez tools made him hard to ignore : hats off the remarkably powerful tools suite Matt has put together, I'm merely showing you how to use them!

Anyway, Chris, you're already a few hours behind schedule, so stop waffling and crack on with Friday's preview, where feature of the day is the fabulous Horses For Courses (H4C) report, which shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is initially sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting.

As well as the feature of the day, we have the following six free races of the day...

  • 1.40 Ascot
  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 7.15 Chepstow
  • 8.05 Kilbeggan

And although I've actually got four qualifiers on my H4C) report,

...we've got another Group 2 contest on the free list, so it makes sense to stay at HQ for the 2.25 Newmarket aka the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, which is a Group 2 race for 2yo fillies over 6f on Good to Firm ground. There's another decent pot on offer, as £51,039 will wing its way to one of the following...

Now, I'm not making excuses, but I normally shy away from 2yo races, because I rely heavily on data for my betting and there's often very little to work on with juvies. In fact, these eight have only raced 21 times between them, but having only missed the frame four times between them, they've a place strike of almost 81% and have won twelve times (57.1%). All have won at least once and none have raced more than four times. Only Ellade (C2) and Sadmah (C5) didn't race in a Class 1 last time out, whilst all bar Honey Sweet have already tasted success over this 6f trip. Sandrine's OR of 105 makes her best off at the weights from those with a mark, whilst both Ellade and Honey Sweet are both rated some 23lbs lower.

We've plenty of in-form and/or course specialist trainers and jockeys, check the green icons and even Frankie's here with his impressive Class 1 record!

Desert Dreamer started her career with back to back Class 4 ins over 5f and then 6f on the Rowley here at HQ, before finishing 10th of 21, beaten by six lengths in the Gr2 Queen Mary Stakes at Ascot last month. She bounced back well though, to only go down by a neck here over course and distance in a Listed race last time out and a similar run gives her an outside chance of making the frame.

Ellade had two wins and a 4th of 6 in three Class 5 contests before being beaten by a head as the runner-up in a Class 2 contest last time out. Neither of her wins were convincing and this is a tough task up in trip.

Flotus won a Class 4 maiden on debut and her only other run was a 13 length defeat in the Gr 3 Albany Stakes where she was 13th home of 15. She's probably better than that and has Frankie Dettori on board, but this is another small step up and she's never raced on ground quicker than soft, so I'll give her a wide berth today.

Hello You is, like Flotus, a twice-raced filly whose last outing was in the Albany, but she was the runner-up at Ascot, headed inside the final furlong, whilst her maiden outing saw her stroll to a 6.5 length success at Wolverhampton in May. She's one to consider here.

Honey Sweet won a 5f soft ground maiden at Nottingham to kick off her career, but could only manage 7th of 15 (bt by 3.5L) here over course and distance in the same Listed race as Desert Dreamer was the half-length runner-up.

Oscula was only headed late into her debut at Kempton in May, but won her next two races at Class 5, then Class 2 before becoming another of this field (four in total) to run in the Albany at Ascot three weeks ago. She was third that day, two lengths behind Sandrine, half a length behind Hello You and 11 lengths clear of Flotus. She's got a bit of ground to make up here, but stands every chance of another podium finish.

Sadmah will win races, but I suspect this won't be one of them. She looked pretty green on debut at Haydock a month ago and the fact that she won that Class 5 Novice race by 0.75 lengths probably says more about that race than it does about her. It was a poor race that she struggled to get to grips with. The penny dropped late on, suggesting better times are ahead, but this looks a giant leap in terms of quality.

Sandrine is, on what little form we have to go off, the one to beat here. She stuck to her task when winning a Class 5 A/W novice race on debut, before going on to land the Albany last time out. She won by a length and a half and you sensed she had more to give and the only fly in the ointment for is whether she handles quicker ground, but you could say that about most of these here.

*

At this point, it's a 4-horse race in my head already. I don't like Ellade (unconvincing wins and up in class/trip), Flotus (well behind the re-opposing 1-2-3 from the Albany), Honey Sweet (behind Desert Dreamer LTO) nor Sadmah (not ready for this yet), leaving me with Desert Dreamer, Hello You, Oscula and Sandrine.

Instant Expert shows the past form under today's conditions and whether they've actually faced these conditions before...

Of the four, only Desert Dreamer has raced on Good to Firm before and she's 0 from 2 (runner-up once), but both she and Oscula are 2 from 2 on good ground. Sandrine's win in the Albany makes her the only Class 1 winner, but the other three have all been placed at this level. Desert Dreamer's 2 from 3 at HQ includes 2 from 2 on the Rowley, but she was a runner-up here on the July course and they've all won at this trip with all four of them having a 10% place record over 6f.

To be honest, we've not learned much new there, but Sandrine's win in the Albany continues to stick out, whilst a quick look at sire data told me that both Hello You & Oscula are by stallions whose offspring have gone well on good to firm ground.

From the draw, stall 2 has done OK, but the place to be in similar 8-runner contests is in the higher half (5-8) of the draw...

...as that half has 23 wins to the low half's 11 and the place stats go the same way, making it better news for Sandrine & Hello You over Oscula & Desert Dreamer, whilst the pace stats are also very clear...

...get out quick, grab the lead and hold on. If you can't get the lead, get as close to the lead as you can and hope the leader can't hold on. Leaders make the frame almost half of the time and the further back you race, the harder it is to place. So, if you already like Sandrine or Hello You from the high draw, you'll be wanting them to get out sharpish, because...

and here's how my quartet have tended to race in their short careers so far...

Oscula looks set to attempt to make all and that's her best strategy from a poor draw, but you suspect Sandrine will run her down. Hello You will probably get towed along by Sandrine, whilst Desert Dreamer looks worst off of the four.

Summary

I've just seen the market for the race and I'm a little disappointed. Not disappointed in my process or the outcome I've arrived, but because the market agrees with me and we've not got one over on them.

The Albany finished Sandrine / Hello You / Oscula and I think those three finish that way again today. The question was going to be if Desert Dreamer could gatecrash the party, but all things being equal, I fear she just misses out. The best market prices for my 1-2-3-4 are currently (8.15pm)  9/4, 11/4, 11/2 and 12/1.

I'm happy that that's the order I want, but I still think that Desert Dreamer might just be worth a small E/W tickle at 12's, it only takes one of the other three to not get the speed of the ground 😉

 

July Cup Trends

The July Cup is a Group One contest is run over 6f at Newmarket racecourse and is one of the highlights for the best sprinters all around the world each year.

Run on the final day of the three-day Newmarket July Meeting the race is worth around £225,000 to the winner.

We take a look back at the recent winners and give you some key trends ahead of the 2020 renewal, this year run on Saturday 10th July.

Did you know - 18 of the last 19 July Cup winners were aged 5 or younger?

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2020 – Oxted (12/1)
2019     Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018     U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017     Harry Angel (9/2)
2016     Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011      Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010      Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009      Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008      Marchand d'Or (5/2 fav)
2007      Sakhee's Secret                (9/2)
2006      Les Arcs (10/1)
2005      Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004      Frizzante (14/1)
2003      Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002      Continent (12/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

18/19 – Aged 5 or younger
17/19 – Had won over 6f before
16/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
15/19 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
14/19 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
14/19 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
11/19 – Placed last time out
9/19 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
7/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 3 winners)
2/19 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/19 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019)

Racing Insights, 8th July 2021

Fingers crossed for England at the Euros on Wednesday evening, but before I can settle down in front of the telly with some cold refreshments, there's the small matter of Thursday's racing to deal with, because the show always goes on here at Geegeez!

Every day we open up a feature and a selection of races free to all readers, irrespective of their payment/Gold status and for Thursday, the free feature is the Instant Expert tab...

...which is by far the most popular tab in the geegeez racecards. The reason? Its ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

And that tab is there for all races everyday for Gold members, including the afore-mentioned free races of the day, which for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 6.20 Newbury
  • 6.30 Epsom
  • 8.50 Newbury

The first on that list is by far the best race on paper and although there are only 5 runners and we'll have an odds on favourite, it's still worth looking at, because (a) I expect the Instant Expert tab will hold lots of information and (b) we might find a decent priced E/W option to the fav, so let's head towards the Princess Of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes, which is a 5-runner, Group 2 contest over a mile and a half for horses aged 3 or over. Despite recent poor weather across the country, we're still expecting good to firm ground for the 3.35 Newmarket, which is worth a cool £65,216 to one of this quintet...

All five come here with some decent recent form, as you'd expect for a race at this level, but only Al Aasy has won on the July course at Newmarket before, although Sir Ron Priestley has won on the Rowley here. All bar Bangkok have won over today's 1m4f trip, but he's only tried twice and was prolific over 1m2f. Star Safari looks like he's up 3 classes today, but that's the difference from his last UK run : he has been running at Class 1 in Meydan recently and his trainer, Charlie Appleby has positive icons for both recent form and course form.

Trainers of both Al Aasy and Highest ground also look to be in decent nick, whilst Sir Ron Priestley's yard have a good course record, as do the jockeys aboard Al Aasy and Star Safari, but Franny Norton (Sir Ron Priestley) is having a rare dry spell and is 0 from 27 over the last fortnight (before Wednesday's six rides at Yarmouth, that is). Al Aasy is best off at the weights based on official ratings and although Sir Ron Priestley concedes 3lbs to the field, he's next best at the weights ahead of Bangkok, Star Safari and then Highest Ground.

Sir Ron Priestley carries top weight here and had seven wins and a runner-up finish from nine starts from mid-April 2019 to his win in the Gr2 Jockey Club Stakes on the Rowley here on the 1st May when he beat Pyledriver (who then beat Al Aasy in the Coronation Cup) by 2.25 lengths. he was too keen at York just 13 days later and then next/last time out, he really wasn't suited by tackling soft ground for the first time at Ascot, beaten by over 7 lengths in the Hardwicke. He's back on preferred Good to Firm ground, he excels in small fields, gets the trip easily enough and has a great record with today's jockey. We should see him back to something like his best here.

Al Aasy is clearly the one to beat here and prior to going down by a neck in the Coronation Cup last time out, he had won four of his five previous starts. He's 3 from 4 at Gr3, but hasn't yet raced at Gr2, but that Coronation Cup run says he's more than up to it. If I have any reservations about him here, it's the quick ground. Most of his racing has been done on ground softer than Good and his only previous good to firm effort saw him beaten by over 10 lengths on the Rowley here last summer.

Bangkok won a Gr3 on good to firm ground at Sandown way back in April 2019 and it's over a year since his last effort on ground this quick, when he was last home of seven at Sandown. In his defence he was only 7 lengths or so off the winner and it was the Gr1 Coral Eclipse, where he carried 3lbs more than the runner-up Enable who was rated 14lbs higher than Bangkok, but only beat him by 5 lengths, so it wasn't a bad run. That said, his best form has been on the all-weather, but he does get this trip even if all his best work has been at 1m2f.

Highest Ground, like Sir Ron Priestley, seems to love this quicker ground, having won both efforts on good to firm so far, whilst he's only 1 from 5 elsewhere. He hasn't won anything higher than a Class 3 contest and was well beaten (10.5L) in the Gr2 Hardwicke LTO, but again soft ground was at play. We should get a better idea of where he's at here, but I'm undecided about him so far.

Star Safari completes the line-up and his UK form loks a bit bare. 10th of 18, beaten by over 10 lengths in a Class 4, 1m maiden on the Rowley in late September 2018 was followed 13 days later by a win in another C4 maiden, but over 8.5f at Nottingham and that's his entire UK career. Since then, he was beaten by three lengths in a Listed race at Deauville before finishing 131 in three handicaps (1m2f, 1m2f & 1m4f) at Meydan. He then won a Gr3 over 1m2f there and his last race was just over three months ago, when beaten by six lengths over today's trip in a Gr1 contest. The only question here is can he bring that Meydan turf form to the UK?

Based on the above, I think that we lack in terms of quantity, we've made up for quality and none of these are no-hopers and Al Aasy isn't a shoo-in at this point either (not for me, anyway!). Now to the feature of the day, Instant Expert, which will hopefully corroborate much of what I've just written!

And Bangkok's lack of Flat success is clearly highlighted above, as is Star Safari's pure lack of UK action. We said Highest Ground hadn't won beyond Class 3, which is worrying. Al Aasy is largely untried on quick ground and Sir Ron Priestley might never get a more favourable set of conditions to race under. If only he wasn't conceding 3lbs to the field...

As for the draw...

I expect the going to be towards the good side of god to firm and have adjusted my setting accordingly and in 29 previous similar contests, the stats suggest that the higher the draw, the better chance there is for both winning and finishing as runner-up, which doesn't bode particularly well for Bangkok or Star Safari, but better for Al Aasy, Sir Ron Priestley & Highest Ground.

As regards to the pace/race positioning of those 29 races above, those who have led and set the fractions have done far better winning 31.1% of the races from just 21.5% of the runners. Prominent racers have scored slightly above par providing 44.8% of the winners from 42.4% of runners, whilst hold-up horses haven't done nearly as well with a third of the runners only contributing 24.1% of the winners. We've only had 4 mid-division runners in those 29 races, so those figures for that style are inconclusive at best...

When we look at how these five have raced in the past...

Sir Ron Priestley looks like he's going to be the one to set the pace here with the fav biding his time. And when we combine those running styles with the pace stats and the draw data, we can order the field into stalls and get an overview of how we see those pieces of information working with each other as follows...

None of the five look massively inconvenienced here on pace/draw make-up. The Johnston horse looks set to be afforded a soft/easy lead and that could be dangerous for Al Aasy, as Franny Norton is an excellent judge of the pace from the front and if they approach this like they did the Jockey Club Stakes in May, they might not get caught!

Summary

Al Aasy is the one to beat here, but he's certainly no shoo-in like the 8/13 price tag would suggest he is. He's unproven on the going and might have a lot of ground to make up, so I can't/won't be backing him here. Bangkok is better on the A/W and Star Safari's ability to transfer form from overseas is questionable. That leaves me with Highest Ground and Sir Ron Priestley. Highest Ground will also be held up with Al Aasy and although he'll "get" the ground, he hasn't won beyond Class 3 and I don't see him beating the fav.

So, Sir Ron? Yes!
Instant Expert says yes.
He beat Pyledriver : another yes
Drawn high? Yes
Likes to lead? Yes

Lots to like about Sir Ron Priestley here, I'm concerned about the extra 3lbs, of course, but at 11/2 in a 5-horse race, there could be some real value there. Al Aasy will come at him hard late on, but I hope he can hold the fav off. Sir Ron should make the frame, I hope he wins and for those that way inclined a back to lay option might be on the cards?

PLEASE NOTE : I'm out on family business for most of Thursday, so my preview of Friday's racing will appear later than usual!

Racing Insights, 26th June 2021

My last piece of the week, not sure where the days are going right now! We're assisted by free access to the excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo report, whilst our free 'races of the day' are scheduled to be...

  • 1.00 Newmarket
  • 2.55 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Newcastle
  • 3.50 Newmarket
  • 4.40 Newcastle
  • 5.20 Windsor

I don't like having too many runners to sift through from the reports each day, so I do set fairly stringent criteria, but my settings for the Trainer/Jockey Combo report throws up one possible from the 5 yr handicap figures who also runs in one of our free races, so it makes sense to look at the 3.50 Newmarket, which features...

The race itself is a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ fillies over a mile and a half on Good to Firm ground. It's worth £6,210 to the winner, who will be one of the following...

We'll look a little more closely at the Appleby/Doyle combo a little later when I do the horse profiles, but we'll run through the card first, where only Carnival Craft is without a recent win and By Starlight, Quenelle D'Or, Sayyida and Franklet all won last time out.

Only Almareekh ran at this level last time out with the other eight all stepping up in class. Quenelle D'Or is having her second try at handicap racing, whilst Sayyida, Franklet & Carnival Craft are all on handicap debut with the latter the only runner here not to have raced in the last seven weeks, having been absent for almost six months now and has also moved yards during her layoff.

The bottom five on the card are all three year olds and get a massive 14lbs allowance from the 4 yrs olds, meaning that bottom weight now carries a huge 22lbs less than top weight, despite the official ratings having them just 8lbs apart.

Almareekh is highest rated at 86 and carries top weight of 10 stones here and she won three times on the spin last July/August, the last being at this class/trip off a mark of 81. She was sixth of seven at a lower grade last time out, looking like she needed the run and at 5lbs higher than her last win, others appeal more, although...

End Result also steps up in class here and this progressive-looking runner won a heavy-ground handicap at Newbury over 1m2f in October. Has ran respectably in two third place finishes this season so far, but that result off this mark in a Class 4 doesn't suggests she wins a Class 3 now.

By Starlight was a winner over this trip just 22 days ago when last seen getting home by 1.25 lengths at Goodwood. Up to classes and 5lbs makes this much more difficult, of course, but she could only beat what was in front of her and she'd something in hand at the close. That said, she'd not be one I'd expect to win this, although...

Lady Pendragon ended her 2020 campaign with back to back Class 5 handicap wins over 1m2f at Lingfield on the A/W before taking a 145-day rest. She then returned at Windsor almost seen weeks ago to run a very creditable third of seven over 1m3½f, but still at Class 5. Up two grades off the same mark makes this tough, considering she was 5 lengths adrift LTO, but in Hayley Turner, she does have a jockey who won't give up...

Quenelle D'Or has raced just five times so far and was the runner-up in each of her 2yo efforts, only beaten by a neck and then by a head. She returned from a 133-day absence to win over 1m3f at Kempton and although last home of seven, beaten by 17 lengths, in a Chester Listed race last month, she still went on to win again next/last time out on handicap debut over this trip at Goodwood 22 days ago, some 3.25 lengths ahead of the re-opposing End Result. She's up 5lbs and up in class, but she looks like a filly on the rise and could go well again here for an in-form partnership...

Sayyida is, of course, the horse featured on my Trainer/Jockey Combo report and that's because the Appleby/Doyle/Newmarket handicaps data was so strong. You've got the overall 5yr record above, but on the July course since the start of the 2017 season, the pair have teamed up 10 times, making the frame on 7 occasions and going on to win five (50% SR, A/E 2.27) times. And of those ten runs, they are...

  • 4/7 on good to firm
  • 3/6 with 3yo runners
  • 2/2 at Class 3
  • 1/1 with females

They've not featured in June or over this trip, but the numbers above are strong and the horse herself now makes a handicap debut at Class 3 after winning a Class 4 novice event quite comfortably at Nottingham six weeks ago. However, despite the third placed horse from that just about scraping home in a Class 5 maiden, the form hasn't really worked out with four others having reappeared at Class4 and none made the frame. That's not to say Sayyida isn't any good, but caution is required with these inexperienced fillies.

Franklet is, as the name gives away, a daughter of the great Frankel and although she never raced as a 2yo, has progressed quickly this year, as her 321 form line would suggest. She's up in class for her handicap debut off a not too onerous mark of 80 after winning over this trip 18 days ago, staying on well and looking like she'd plenty in reserve (wonder where she gets that from?). Everyone knows about the Gosden team's record here at HQ, so I won't bore you with the details, but there are some other interesting stats at play here...

Something Enticing has been kept busy with seven runs under her belt since the start of December and after the novice outings, won her first two starts in handicap company taking her mark from 67 to 77 and she has found life a little tougher since, finishing second and third off 77 and 78 respectively. She ran well enough LTO to be fair and was only beaten by a neck and a head here on this track over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground 8 days ago. Improvement is needed here though, as she's now up in trip/class/weight, but she is running consistently well.

Carnival Craft completes the line-up and she's carrying practically no weight at all (8-6 off a mark of 78). She was a half-length runner-up in a poor novice race at Wolverhampton over this trip, but two classes lower in early January and that was the last time she was seen. Now coming back from 175 days off the track, up in class, on handicap debut and having changed yards, A watching brief or total avoidance is my advice here, but credit given where it's due, jockey Nicola Currie is no mug...

Hopefully that gives you an overview of each runner's career to date, but the form under today's conditions is easiest highlighted by our Instant Expert colour coded chart...

I opened the class parameters to include Class 4 form, as only Almareekh, End Result, Quenelle D'Or and Something Enticing had raced at this level before. All had just the one start and none of them won, although End Result & Quenelle D'Or did make the frame. Based on the above allied to the write-ups, By Starlight and Carnival Craft are ones I'd remove from my list of possibles here.

The Draw Stats...

And for pace...

Leaders do pretty well with an IV of 1.24, but those sitting back off the pace (but not too far off!) have done best with mid-div runners having an IV of 1.81, suggesting they're winning almost twice as often as you'd expect, mainly at the expense of the prominent runners doing too much too soon on this fast strip.

Pace/Draw is obviously the combination of that data above and like Instant Expert gives a really quick overview on how you can win or lose a race by the way it is run...

...and working on the "Green is Good" assumption, the suggestion here is that you can pretty much win from anywhere, but low drawn prominent runners have really struggled, winning just once from 40 attempts! We know the draw for this race already and our behind the scenes work logs the running style of every horse in every race and we can then produce our own version of that heatmap tailored towards this race in draw order, as follows...

Quenelle D'Or is an out and out pacesetter and if applying those tactics here, could well have the run of the race. Jockey Oisin Murphy is an excellent judge of pace and if allowed to dictate, they might be difficult catch. TJ Combo horse Sayyida looks well placed on the heatmap despite the wide draw. Almareekh was closer to the lead for her three wins and she might well revert to that tactic here and By Starlight has also been know to try and kick on.

I suspect they'll not want Quenelle to have all her own way and we could have three going for it early with stalls 2,3 and 9 forming the mid division with 4, 7 & 8 bringing up the rear.

Summary

Each section of my analysis leaves a number of runners with questions to answer and none of these nine have stood out overall. Sayyida was the feature horse, but this is far tougher than her last effort and she's not a gimme on her opening mark. Her last race was a poor one and I'm not sure she'll make the frame here. She's clearly entitled to could easily prove me wrong, but I like Franklet, Quenelle D'Or and Something Enticing more than I like her for this one.

Of the three I'm going with, I'd say Franklet edges it overall. She's progressive, has excellent breeding and looks well treated off 80 for her handicap debut. 7/2 about her is fair, but not generous and I'll have a nibble at that in the hope she can catch and pass Quenelle D'Or, who is currently a 5/1 shot with my third choice trading at 11/2.

Sayyida is the 11/4 fav right now, so there's no E/W ount today, sorry.

 

Racing Insights, 24th June 2021

Thursday is Instant Expert day, where we open up our unique relevant form tool to ALL readers for ALL races including, of course, the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 2.00 Newcastle
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 8.15 Leicester

The race at HQ looks the best of the quartet, so today's focus falls upon the 4.10 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ Flat handicap over 7f on Good ground. Top prize is £10,800 and these are the horses trying to land it...

Slightly different approach today, but hopefully arriving at a satisfactory conclusion. I'm going to use the card and toolbox to quickly eliminate runners from my consideration, leaving me a hopefully short list of horses to choose from. There is, of course, always the danger of discarding the winner at an early stage and the equally possible prospect of me not liking any of them!

Just looking at the card, I'm immediately going to discard three of the bottom four runners, starting with No Nonsense, who throws the occasional good run in, but comes here after finishing 12th of 14 two classes lower than this and his last 2.5 seasons don't suggest that he's up to much.

Also coming here after finishing well down the field last time out is Shark Two One, who hasn't reproduced his form as a juvenile and also steps up in trip...

And the third discard is going to be Sun Power, who like No Nonsense above, steps up two classes after a poor run LTO, he's 0 from 9 on the Flat and is running for his third trainer in ten months and has only had a couple of decent runs in the last year...

Once I remove those from my thoughts, my card looks like this...

You can remove any runner from the card by clicking the X icon. I've got a mild reservation over Albadri's 113 day layoff, but I'll let that slide for now, whilst I look at Instant Expert, our feature of the day...

Ametist is the standout horse here and I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't a fairly warm favourite, so it might serve us well to look at the place stats, both for general form...

and more specifically in Flat Handicaps...

Albadri's general record is modest, albeit at mainly higher levels than this. His only handicap run was a win on the A/W at Class 3, but has been well beaten twice since, so he's out of contention for me here too and Keyser Soze will also depart at this point. His record at Class 2 is pretty poor and whilst he has proven he gets 7f, he's not good enough for me off his current mark and would need to go back down to Class 3.

All of which leaves me with the following in draw order (as that's where we're heading next!)...

So, we've runners in stalls 1, 3, 4, 7, 9 and 10 and the draw stats don't actually suggest too much of a bias from a win point of view...

...but a low draw is definitely beneficial for place purposes. As for pace, there's a definite pattern forming...

The IV figures are the easiest way to make a deduction with 1.00 being par or what you'd expect. Leaders win significantly more often and have the best place stats. Hold-up horses are next best on both sets of figures with those caught between the two faring worst. We can combine draw and pace together to show what has worked best here in the past...

And when we overlay our six remaining contenders onto those heatmaps, they look like this...

From the two charts there (win on the left, place on the right), the two least likely to succeed are Fox Champion and Equiano Springs, so I'll remove them from my list now. This now takes us down to a final four without even looking at the horses. It's a risky ploy, but you can do the above in your head in less than a minute, enabling you to quickly look at he shortlist you've created before moving to the next race. This is handy when there's plenty of racing on.

In fact, based on the above, I'm going to put Dulas as fourth place or first reserve if one of my top three pull out.

Summary

We've very quickly got ourselves three against the field, we'll have a quick look at them and then decide whether to play or fold.

Ametist is 3111 in his short career so far and that simple look at his form explains why he'll be popular with punters, but closer inspection shows that his first three runs were at Class 5, before landing a Class 3 handicap here at Newmarket last time out. He was sent off at Evens that day off a mark of 87 and just about hung on to win by a nose. He's got the rail draw to help him here, but he's up three pounds and one class for that narrow win and that leaves no margin for error.

Kimifive hasn't won any of his last 20 races stretching back to early May 2019, which doesn't immediately inspire confidence, but he has made the frame several times during that run and only lost last season's Stewards Cup at Goodwood by a head. His form this season is much improved, though, finishing third on both occasions (both C2 hcps) and he's now a pound lower than when losing by less than two lengths LTO.

On A Session toiled on the soft ground at Ascot in the Victoria Cup early last month, but has run well in his other three Class 2 handicap outings this season, making the frame each time. He stumbled at the start last time out and conceded too much ground, but still recovered into the race enough to finish third. He goes off the same mark here, but now has the benefit of the 3lb claim held by the talented and in-form Marco Ghiani and he could well spring a surprise here.

I'm actually pretty happy at taking these three from the eleven we started with, so let's make a decision.

I'm not convinced Ametist wins here, based on how tight his last race was and he's up in class and weight. Two firms are open and he's 5/4 and 13/8 and I really don't want to know at that price. I don't think Kimifive wins here either, he seems to have forgotten how to. He looks a solid placer to me, but odds of 11/2 and 15/2 aren't quite long enough for me to go E/W on him, but you'll have your own cut-off point, I'm sure.

All of which brings me to On A Session and I'm siding with him to win this. He managed to defy a really poor start to still make the frame and the booking of Marco Ghiani could just swing it. He's 8/1 with Bet365, so you could even go E/W if you wanted.
 

Racing Insights, 15th April 2021

Wow! I said today's race would be a tight affair and it couldn't have been much tighter than it was. Sadly we narrowly missed out twice in a race where the first five home were separated as follows... neck, nose, nose, head! Our pick King of Stars was the 15/2 runner-up beaten by a neck, whilst the 12/1 E/W shot Muscika was fourth, a neck and two noses away from winning, but not even making the frame.

The other horse I suggested that would be a bad E/W bet either, Music Society, was fifth home at 16/1. So, although I drew a financial blank here, I'm pleased at how close we got and the only blot on the day was the poor run from eventual favourite Jawwaal, who faded away late on and probably wasn't quite as ready as he'd like first up.

On Thursdays we open up the informative Instant Expert to all readers for all races, including, of course, our free races of the day, which are set to be...

  • 1.55 Limerick
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Limerick
  • 5.50 Limerick
  • 5.55 Newcastle

The race at HQ is easily the "best" of those races and although there's going to be a very short favourite, we might well be able to find a decent E/W shot for the forecast. So, today's piece centres around the 3.00 Newmarket, the 7-runner Group 3 bet365 Abernant Stakes for 3yo+ horses over 6f on ground that is set to be good (good to firm in places). The top prize is £25,520 and these are the seven hoping to land it...

Five of the seven have at least one win in their last four outings, Summerghand is the only LTO winner in the field, though and he's one of three stepping up in class. All seven have either won here or have won over this trip, whilst two (Oxted & Jouska) are course and distance winners.

Oxted is the likely short-priced favourite and he's very much well in at the weights (at least 11lbs). Five of this field have raced in the past month and only Jouska returns from a long lay-off. Now we'll look at each of them a little closer...

Emaraaty Ana won the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes in 2018 but hasn't quite hit those heights since, although he was third (beaten by 4.75 lengths) in this race last year. He was gelded and had a breathing op during the 31 week break he had before returning to action at Doncaster 19 days ago when a creditable second in a Listed race. This is much tougher, though and I think he might struggle.

Exalted Angel won a Listed race on the Polytrack at Lingfield two starts and almost 10 weeks ago, just getting home by a neck and he was then a runner-up over the same course and distance a fortnight ago on Championship Day when beaten by Summerghand who re-opposes today. He's more effective away from grass and I'm not sure he could reverse those placings.

Oxted is the likely odds on fav here and is very much best off at the weights. He won this race last year before going on to land the Group 1 July Cup. He then took 14 weeks off before going down by just over a length in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes where he ran out of steam on unsuitably soft ground. He hasn't been seen in the UK since that mid-October run, but has had a pipe opener on the dirt in Riyadh in the past eight weeks, so should be ready for this.

Shine So Bright has been a runner-up in each of his last three starts, albeit on the all-weather at Classes 2 and 3. He hasn't actually won any of his last nine since winning the Group 2 City of York Stakes in August 2019 and although he clearly has ability, he's going to need to up his game to feature here.

Summerghand ditched his usual cheekpieces in favour of a first visor and was a winner on A/W Champions Day last month, pipping the re-opposing Exalted Angel in the process. It was a welcome return to form for this 7 yr old who now makes his 48th start here and has interestingly made the frame in 60% of them, this could be another if he runs like LTO.

Jouska is one of two fillies (both are 4yr olds) in the race and she could only manage 15th of 16 when last seen at Ascot six months ago. In her defence, that was the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes that Oxted was beaten in. She has won here over course and distance in a Listed event, but this is much tougher and she may need the run after such a long absence.

Marly is the second of those 4yo fillies and the last listed on the card. Just two UK runs to date and she hasn't set the world on fire in them, going down by a couple of lengths at Classes 2 and 3. She was a three time winner in France, but looks outclassed here and would probably prefer the ground to be a fair bit softer.

Thursday's free feature is, of course, Instant Expert, so it would be remiss not visit it here...

As expected, there's no getting away from Oxted here, proven in every category, We've plenty of amber elsewhere for the going, we've five Class 1 winners, Summerghand has a fantastic 11 wins at this trip and loves the smaller fields.

So far I've seen little to suggest the jolly will get overturned, so it might just be the runner-up we're looking for, so from a place perspective, Instant Expert looks like this...

And Summerghand looks the likeliest from that, although Exalted Angel is interesting off very few runs and wasn't far behind Summerghand last time out.

From a draw perspective, past data would tend to suggest a low (pref #1 or #2) draw is the favoured place to be, although widest of 7 has also worked out well for runners, as we can see here...

As for pace, leading seems to be the way forward here, whilst prominent runners run to par with an IV of 1. Mid-division runners have fared worst of all, but from a very small sample size, so that might not be entirely reliable, whilst held-up runners are also very close to par.

When we combine running style with draw, the ideal scenario is a low drawn leader (for fairly obvious reasons) and aside from a poor return from a small number of mid-div runners, low drawn runners fare the best full stop. High drawn mid-div runners are fourth best.

So the likes of Exalted Angel and Summerghand in stalls 1 and 2 would be best off if they tried to set the pace early doors, whilst the fav Oxted in stall 7 could let them get on with it and pounce later. This (in draw order), however, is how they've all tended to run...

Neither Exalted Angel nor Summerghand look particularly well suited, but I'm not convinced about the mid-div stats as they're based on such a small sample size and likewise for Jouska, but she has a poorer draw. The other four are probably in as good a zone on the graphic as they could be.

Summary

I don't see anything beating Oxted here based on last year's race and what I've documented above. Whether he's worth backing at 8/11 is up to you, I fully expected him to be around 4/6, so the market is about right.

If you don't want to back him at those odds and you want an E/W bet or a placer to go in a forecast etc, then everything I've written points to Summerghand and Exalted Angel being "best of the rest". They're very closely matched and were only a head apart last time out. The former, however, is a better performer on the Flat than the latter, so it's Summerghand to reconfirm his narrow superiority over Exalted Angel for me in the bid to chase Oxted home, although at odds of 13/2 and 12/1 respectively, the Angel looks a more attractive option on potential returns!

 

Racing Insights, 13th April 2021

We were right to oppose the 5/6 fav Kettle Hill this afternoon, as he failed to even make the frame, but our preferred pick Dawaaleeb was beaten by a neck after ditching his usual front-running tactics. This left our other identified pacemaker, Defence Treaty, with the opportunity to set the fractions and he hung on grimly to secure the win at 20/1, just holding our pick off.

Not our day, but we'll have other opportunities and I'll be keeping an eye out for Global Spirit next time. As I thought he might, he faded late on, but ran well for a long way, so would be of interest on his next appearance.

Now, to Tuesday, where The Shortlist report is our 'feature of the day' and our free races are as follows...

  • 1.00 Newmarket
  • 1.15 Newton Abbot
  • 2.35 Southwell
  • 2.45 Newmarket
  • 4.30 Newmarket

There's not a lot catching my eye from The Shortlist report for Tuesday, so I'll turn to our handful of free races for today's and seeing as the fourth on that list is not only the "best" race of the five, it also features a runner from our 2021 Flat profiling community project. So, without further ado, let's focus on the 2.45 Newmarket, which is a 9-runner, Class 2 Flat handicap for 4yo+ horses over a mile on Good ground, that might well be firmer in places. Top prize is £10,800 and it will go to one of...

We've no LTO winners in the filed, but seven of the nine have won at least once in their last five outings. Six ran in this grade last time out, but Makram is up one class whilst both Overwrite and Madame Tantzy ran in Class 4 contests. Only Maxi Boy and Rhythmic Intent are without a win at this trip, whilst we've four course and distance winners.

The Geegeez ratings are fairly close between Madame Tantzy (99), Rhythmic Intent (95), Hortzadar (91) and Scottish Summit/Dogged (both 87),  suggesting a tight affair, whilst the middle of those five, Hortzadar is the Flat profiles horse, more on that very shortly. Four of the field have raced in the past 17 days, whilst the other five have been off track for at least 12 weeks with Dogged now re-appearing after a break of almost 40 weeks!

Oh This Is Us carries top weight of 9st 12lbs off a mark of 102. He's a former course and distance winner but has laboured on the all-weather this spring finishing 9th of 13 off 104 and 9th of 14 off 103. he's back on turf and down another pound, but has no 5lb claimer on board today to reduce his effective mark below 100. He's 2 from 6 here at HQ, but hasn't won on the Flat for over 31 months and although his yard are in good form right now, I think he'll fall short again here.

Hortzadar was put forward for the Flat profiles by Gold subscriber andynic with the following short note...Distance 7f-8f, no of runners 2-10... He's 5 from 5 under those circumstances, including 4/4 over 1m, 2/2 at Class 2, both over a mile. So, conditions look ideal and he's only 3lbs higher than when last winning at Goodwood in September at this class/trip and made a promising reappearance to finish third, just 2 lengths adrift in the Lincoln last month despite a 161 day absence. He looks the one to beat.

Maxi Boy was a promising 2 yr old who won on debut and was third in a Group 2 race here in July 2019. he struggled next time out in another Group 2 race and then wasn't seen for 455 days. The break didn't appear to affect him too much as he came within two necks of winning a Class 2 handicap on his return. The fact he hasn't raced in the 166 days since then suggests something might not quite be right with him and although he clearly has ability, I'm concerned that 1 run in 22 months isn't enough.

Rhythmic Intent had a good start to his 2020 campaign with two wins and a runner-up finish from his first four seasonal outings, so he'd be expected to be ready to go here, despite a 5 month absence. He acquitted himself well on his final run of 2020 with a good 2nd of 23 in Doncaster's Class 2 November handicap when a length and three quarters behind a winner who has won twice since. Definite chances here.

Scottish Summit is possibly better than recent form might suggest, as he went pretty well for much of his run in the Lincoln at Doncaster last month before weakening late on. He made the frame in 7 of his 9 Flat runs last season, winning twice (the last of which was here over C&D) and whilst he's possibly a tad high in the weights, could well nick a place at a decent price.

Overwrite was certainly kept busy last season, racing 11 times in 21 weeks, getting home first in two of them (won one and was disqualified in another after hanging right). He struggled in the Spring Mile last month and was beaten off this mark on the A/W at Newcastle in a Class 4 last week. This is much tougher and I think mid-division is about as good as he'll be.

Makram is a prime example of why you need to loo beyond form figures. Finishes of 21818 from his five career runs to date would spark interest, but closer analysis shows he won a Class 5, 7f, A/W novice race by half a length and a Class 4 Flat handicap by a length and a quarter. He was then 8th of 13 on his Class 3 debut last time out and although he didn't have the best of draws, he was never really in the race and now going off that same mark and stepping up another class after a 234-day absence, I'd want to look elsewhere.

Dogged won a Class 2 nursery here over course and distance back in September 2019, but has only raced three times since then and results have been disappointing, although a 5th of 10 here over C&D last time out suggested there might be something about him. He has been gelded during his long layoff and it is hoped that will spark some improvement, but even if it does, I think he'll need the run.

Madame Tantzy is an interesting sort at the foot of the weights. The only mare in the race was a winner two starts ago when landing a Class 3 handicap over course and distance last September, prior to a five length defeat on the A/W at Kempton. She's probably a little high in the weights still off 79 and will probably need a run, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her winning at Class 3 off a lower mark this summer.

We know that Hortzadar should have conditions to suit here, but Instant Expert can quickly highlight how his rivals have also fared in past Flat handicaps...

Makram and Madame Tantzy look high in the weights based off their last win, whilst Oh This Is Us is the standout horse for me from the above. Rhythmic Intent and particularly Scottish Summit are solid placers who haven't converted enough good runs into wins, whilst Dogged's figures are good from small sample sizes from a fairly long time ago.

In 47 past contests of this nature, the suggestion is that you either want to be in stall 1 or drawn high. I know that seems a little incongruent, but that's what the data tells us...

Further analysis of those 47 races says the further forward you can race, the better with 34 of the races going to leaders/prominent runners, despite them only representing less than half of the runners.

That, of course, doesn't mean that low drawn runners or those who race from further off the pace can't win here, but if you race mid-division, you need a low draw, whilst hold up runners need to be away from those first three stalls. Highly drawn prominent runners just about shade it here...

...and this is how these nine runners have raced in their last four outings. We've superimposed them in draw order onto that heat map above and Overwrite / Dogged look best suited from that.

Summary

We started with Hortzadar and his record under similar circumstances and I suggested he's the one to beat. He isn't particularly well off on the pace/draw chart, but he does have that stall 1 to his advantage. All things considered, I still think he's the one to beat here. 10/3 is a little shorter than I'd hoped for, but that still might end up being a good price.

That's the easy bit done in a way and I'm tempted to say good night at this point, but I know you like a top three and the possibility of a cheeky E/W punt, so here's where I'm at.  I like Rhythmic Intent best of the rest, he goes well fresh, tends to do his best work early season and could well run Hortzadar close, but at 11/2 is too short for an E/W bet for me.

That leaves me with one to find and this is where it's tricky. I actually think there are a couple of over-priced runners here in the shape of Scottish Summit (16/1) and Oh This Is Us (12/1). The above data and write-ups would tend to suggest the latter would be the better option of the two, but something is nagging at the back of my mind to go with Scottish Summit.

All of which is suggested to you with one caveat...Maxi Boy is a potential fly in the ointment. I suspect he's going to need the run after being so inactive for a long time, but he's certainly good enough to win a race like this. I just hope it's not this one!

Newmarket TV Trends: Fri 9th Oct 2020

More LIVE ITV action on Friday 9th October 2020 for day one of the two-day Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket.

Plenty to get stuck into with the Group One Bet365 Fillies’ Mile the clear feature race, but with the Cornwallis Stakes, Oh So Sharp Stakes and Challenge Stakes supporting then there is a lot to look forward to.

As always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

 

1.50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV3

15/17 – Had won over 5f previously
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
13/17 – Rated 98 or more
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 ½ or less
13/17 – Won at least twice or more before
12/17 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/17 – Had raced 5 or more times
11/17 – Foaled in March or later
10/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
8/17 – Filly winners
6/17 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Kingscote
2 of the last 6 winners trained by Jonathan Portman
2 of the last 11 winners trained by Kevin Ryan
2 of the last 11 winners ridden by Jamie Spencer
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 3
3 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 11 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

 

2.25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV3

15/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Had between 1-2 wins already
14/16 – Had between 1-3 career runs
13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
12/16 – Won last time out
12/16 – Foaled in March or later
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Had won over 7f or further before
8/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/16 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3 winners)
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

 

3.00 – The Godolphin Stud & Stable Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV3

17/17 – Won a Listed or Group race previously
17/17 – Won over 7f previously
17/17 – Raced 3 or more times that season
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Won 3 or more times previously
14/17 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
13/17 –  Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/17 – Officially rated 113 or higher
11/17 – Priced 7/1 or lower
9/17 – Placed in their last race
9/17 – Favourites placed
8/17 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
6/17 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Goodwood (2) last time out
5/17 – Won their previous race
5/17 - Favourites that won
2/17 – Trained by Henry Candy
1/17 – Filly/Mare winners
Limato has won the race in 2017, 2018 and was runner-up in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

 

3.35 – Bet365 Fillies´ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV3

16/16 - Finished in the first three last time out
16/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
15/16- Yet to win a Group 1
14/16 – Finished in the first two last time out
14/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
14/16 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
12/16 – Had won between 2-3 times before
12/16 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Had won a Group race before
9/16 - Foaled in Feb or March
7/16 - Raced at Doncaster last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
7/16 - Winning favourites (or joint)
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
4/16 - Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – US bred
3/16 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4 of the last 6 winners have been Irish-trained
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

4.10 – Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV3

6 previous runnings
5/6 – Had won at least twice before
5/6 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
5/6 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
4/6 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/6 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/6 – Priced 8/1 in the betting
2/6 – Ridden by William Buick
2/6 – Came from stall 17
1/6 – winning favourites
Trainer Ralph Becket won the race last season
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 13/1

 

 

 

 

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Racing Insights, 3rd October 2020

Friday's race was a really interesting affair, with just half a length separating the first six home.

Our highlighted runners went well too. Be Proud did indeed go off as favourite, but at 3/1 I felt he was too short and left him alone, leaving us with Another Angel , who was third at 9/1 whilst the one I liked most, Young Tiger was a runner-up at 14/1, beaten by just a head.

Both highlighted placers finished well and had Young Tiger not dwelt at the start, it could have been a winner. Hopefully, those of you who did have a dabble went E/W and got something back. Next up is...

Saturday 3rd October

Feature of the Day is the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, which is free on Saturday to all registered subscribers. Register here if you need to.

Saturday's free Races of the Day are

1.15 Tipperary
1.40 Newmarket
3.20 Newmarket
3.55 Newmarket
4.04 Fontwell
6.30 Wolverhampton

So, I'm going to discard the 1.40 (too many runners) and the two maiden contests (3.55 & 6.30), leaving me with three to choose from and I'm going with...

3.20 Newmarket : a 7-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Soft ground worth £27,390 to the winner.

This race features two runners (Inclyne & Hyanna) on the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, so let's take a look at those two and see if we can predict how they'll get on tomorrow.

We'll start with the racecard and the relevant Trainer/Jockey records...

Georgia Dobie has 16 wins from 76 (21.05% SR) for Eve Johnson Houghton over the last twelve months at an A/E of 1.63 and an IV of 2.11 and together the pair are 2 from 6 (33.33% SR, A/E 2.63 & IV 3.04) here at Newmarket over the last five years.

Whereas William Buick is 4/11 (36.36% SR, A/E 1.45 & IV 3.64) for Andrew Balding over the last year and together, their 5-year Newmarket record stands at 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) at an A/E of 1.60 and IV of 3.42.

Neither of those records would put me off, so what about the pace/draw aspect?

This is more problematical, as neither are particularly well drawn for their running style, but this is a 1m4f contest and in a small field, tactics might well be changed to suit the occasion and with Hyanna being closer to the green on the heat map, I think she shades this one.

If we refer back to the racecard and the Geegeez ratings, Inclyne is well clear of the pack on 88, whilst Hyanna is joint worst at 66 and then I'd like to look at past performances under today's conditions ie...

Venue : Hyanna is 1/4 at Newmarket, whilst Inclyne is 1/3
Going : 1/4 on Soft against 0/3
Trip : 3/14 against 1/2
Jockey : Hyanna is 2/10 under Georgia Dobie, whilst this is William Buick's first ride on Inclyne
Number of runners : Hyanna's 4/9 in fields of 1-7 runners is excellent, whilst Inclyne is 0/1
Class : 2 from 12 for Hyanna at Class 2 versus Inclyne's first step up to this grade
Days Since Run : 4 from 15 at 16-30 dslr against 8/1 at 8-15 dslr

Summary

Other than the Geegeez Speed Rating, Hyanna looks a safer option than Inclyne and her experience at this level might prove beneficial in a contest where five of her six rivals are having to step up in class.

I'd be inclined to have a small win bet on her with a couple of caveats. I'd prefer the ground to be a bit drier and I'm a little worried about her shouldering top weight, so I'm going to suggest a 20/80 bet on Hyanna with Betfair or another exchange with 0.2pts on the win and 0.8pts on the place.

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : Laafy @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders centre group, pushed along and outpaced when groups merged over 2f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong )

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 5-runner, Group 2, Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes for 2yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56,710 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard, one report and one of my own angles...

...followed by the pace/draw heat map...

...and finally the speed ratings...

All the above, bar my own Frankie Dettori angle should be self-explanatory, but briefly we've an in-form 2 yr old hailing from a yard with a good record at this venue (C5). Our pick will be ridden by Frankie Dettori who himself is in good form (14, 30) and also rides well here (C1, C5).

Please note the 14, 30, C1 & C5 are all detailed via clicking the trainer and/or jockey form icon under the horse's name.

As all the above is readily available to you all, I won't patronise you by going over them and I'll spend my time briefly touching on that Sire snippet before explaining my Frankie Dettori angle.

This is the first season for offspring of sire New Bay and with 12 wins from 49, they've made an impressive start and all I'd want to add those numbers is that if you just backed those sent off at 10/1 or shorter within 45 days of their last run, you'd have 10 wins from 25 (40% SR) and profits of 21.1pts at an ROI of 84.4%.

And now that Frankie Dettori angle. Frankie needs no introduction from me, of course and as one of (if not) the best in the business, but as such his rides tend to be overbet making it difficult to profit from him. In fact, backing him every time since the start of 2016 looks like this...

...and 2.76pts profit from 1311 bets just doesn't float my boat, so I apply these simple / logical filters...

to get me to this point (the racecard version includes his two rides today, hence the difference in the total number of runs)...

which I then take to this point before further deeper analysis...

...and those 574 rides include of relevance today...

  • 142/549 (25.9%) on the Flat
  • 139/526 (26.4%) at Class 1
  • 123/388 (31.7%) from those placed LTO
  • 92/268 (34.3%) in fields of 8 or fewer runners
  • 91/249 (36.6%) from LTO winners
  • 43/145 (29.7%) during September/October
  • 37/123 (30.1%) in Group 2 races
  • and 22/100 (22%) here on the Rowley...

...whilst LTO winners in Class 1 Flat contests of 8 or fewer runners are 43 from 107 (40.2% SR), including 10 from 23 (43.5%) at Group 2, 9 from 16 (56.25%) in September and 4 from 7 (57.1%) at Group 2 in September...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 12.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

2.05 Pontefract : Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Made all, ridden and ran on, winning by 2.5 lengths easing down)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Laafy @ 3/1 BOG

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Eqtidaar Godolphin Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground worth £17,013 to the winner...

Why?...

Like yesterday, we'll start with the horse's suitability for today's conditions as highlighted in the Shortlist report, where green is good and grey is unproven/unknown...

And here's how the colours translate into numbers. From a Flat record of 4 wins from 11 starts (36.4% SR), this 4yr old gelding is...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f
  • 4/8 (50%) in fields of 10 runners or less
  • 3/7 (42.9%) wearing a visor
  • 3/6 (50%) when not the favourite
  • 2/5 (40%) over this 1m4f trip
  • 2/4 (50%) in August/September
  • 1/2 (50%) on Good ground
  • and also 1/2 (50%) in non-handicaps

Next we turn to the racecard itself...

...which shows a well-drawn, 4 yr old gelding in decent form and rated top on our Speed Ratings. His yard and jockey are both also in good nick as denoted by the 14 & 30 icons, whilst rider Ryan Moore has a good long term record at this venue C5 (full details of all those numbers can be seen by clicking the trainer or jockey form boxes).

What I want to focus on are the two subsequent reports relating to the trainer/jockey combo and the sire stats. So, in that same order, we can see that Messrs Stoute and Moore have been amongst the winners of late, but more long term in decent races, they have done very well with favoured horses, as in...

...from which, those 53 are...

  • 26/49 (53.1%) on the Flat
  • 21/36 (58.3%) were placed LTO
  • 13/23 (56.5%) from 4 yr olds
  • 11/21 (52.4%) won LTO
  • 10/18 (55.6%) at 1m4f
  • 10/16 (62.5%) in fields of 6 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) on Good ground
  • 6/10 (60%) in Listed contests
  • 6/8 (75%) stepping up a class
  • 4/6 (66.6%) in races worth £17k-£20k
  • and 3/3 (100%) with runners rated (OR) 95-105

And now to those Sire Staying numbers, where I want to focus on this angle...

...which has produced...

  • 7/20 (35%) from males & 6/14 (42.9%) on the Flat
  • 6/9 (66.6%) at odds shorter than 5/1 & 4/11 (36.4%) over a 1m4f trip
  • 4/10 (40%) from 4 yr olds & 4/6 (66.6%)  from horses rated (OR) 100-110
  • 3/6 (50%) in non-handicaps & 3/3 (100%) in races worth £13-25k
  • 2/5 (40%) in fields of 3-6 runners & 2/5 (40%) in September
  • 2/4 (50%) on Good ground & 2/3 (66.6%) at Class 1
  • 1/1 (100%) in Listed contests & 1/1 (100%) at Newmarket

...all of which led me to... a 1pt win bet on Laafy @ 3/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS