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Racing Insights, 15th April 2021

Wow! I said today's race would be a tight affair and it couldn't have been much tighter than it was. Sadly we narrowly missed out twice in a race where the first five home were separated as follows... neck, nose, nose, head! Our pick King of Stars was the 15/2 runner-up beaten by a neck, whilst the 12/1 E/W shot Muscika was fourth, a neck and two noses away from winning, but not even making the frame.

The other horse I suggested that would be a bad E/W bet either, Music Society, was fifth home at 16/1. So, although I drew a financial blank here, I'm pleased at how close we got and the only blot on the day was the poor run from eventual favourite Jawwaal, who faded away late on and probably wasn't quite as ready as he'd like first up.

On Thursdays we open up the informative Instant Expert to all readers for all races, including, of course, our free races of the day, which are set to be...

  • 1.55 Limerick
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Limerick
  • 5.50 Limerick
  • 5.55 Newcastle

The race at HQ is easily the "best" of those races and although there's going to be a very short favourite, we might well be able to find a decent E/W shot for the forecast. So, today's piece centres around the 3.00 Newmarket, the 7-runner Group 3 bet365 Abernant Stakes for 3yo+ horses over 6f on ground that is set to be good (good to firm in places). The top prize is £25,520 and these are the seven hoping to land it...

Five of the seven have at least one win in their last four outings, Summerghand is the only LTO winner in the field, though and he's one of three stepping up in class. All seven have either won here or have won over this trip, whilst two (Oxted & Jouska) are course and distance winners.

Oxted is the likely short-priced favourite and he's very much well in at the weights (at least 11lbs). Five of this field have raced in the past month and only Jouska returns from a long lay-off. Now we'll look at each of them a little closer...

Emaraaty Ana won the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes in 2018 but hasn't quite hit those heights since, although he was third (beaten by 4.75 lengths) in this race last year. He was gelded and had a breathing op during the 31 week break he had before returning to action at Doncaster 19 days ago when a creditable second in a Listed race. This is much tougher, though and I think he might struggle.

Exalted Angel won a Listed race on the Polytrack at Lingfield two starts and almost 10 weeks ago, just getting home by a neck and he was then a runner-up over the same course and distance a fortnight ago on Championship Day when beaten by Summerghand who re-opposes today. He's more effective away from grass and I'm not sure he could reverse those placings.

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Oxted is the likely odds on fav here and is very much best off at the weights. He won this race last year before going on to land the Group 1 July Cup. He then took 14 weeks off before going down by just over a length in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes where he ran out of steam on unsuitably soft ground. He hasn't been seen in the UK since that mid-October run, but has had a pipe opener on the dirt in Riyadh in the past eight weeks, so should be ready for this.

Shine So Bright has been a runner-up in each of his last three starts, albeit on the all-weather at Classes 2 and 3. He hasn't actually won any of his last nine since winning the Group 2 City of York Stakes in August 2019 and although he clearly has ability, he's going to need to up his game to feature here.

Summerghand ditched his usual cheekpieces in favour of a first visor and was a winner on A/W Champions Day last month, pipping the re-opposing Exalted Angel in the process. It was a welcome return to form for this 7 yr old who now makes his 48th start here and has interestingly made the frame in 60% of them, this could be another if he runs like LTO.

Jouska is one of two fillies (both are 4yr olds) in the race and she could only manage 15th of 16 when last seen at Ascot six months ago. In her defence, that was the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes that Oxted was beaten in. She has won here over course and distance in a Listed event, but this is much tougher and she may need the run after such a long absence.

Marly is the second of those 4yo fillies and the last listed on the card. Just two UK runs to date and she hasn't set the world on fire in them, going down by a couple of lengths at Classes 2 and 3. She was a three time winner in France, but looks outclassed here and would probably prefer the ground to be a fair bit softer.

Thursday's free feature is, of course, Instant Expert, so it would be remiss not visit it here...

As expected, there's no getting away from Oxted here, proven in every category, We've plenty of amber elsewhere for the going, we've five Class 1 winners, Summerghand has a fantastic 11 wins at this trip and loves the smaller fields.

So far I've seen little to suggest the jolly will get overturned, so it might just be the runner-up we're looking for, so from a place perspective, Instant Expert looks like this...

And Summerghand looks the likeliest from that, although Exalted Angel is interesting off very few runs and wasn't far behind Summerghand last time out.

From a draw perspective, past data would tend to suggest a low (pref #1 or #2) draw is the favoured place to be, although widest of 7 has also worked out well for runners, as we can see here...

As for pace, leading seems to be the way forward here, whilst prominent runners run to par with an IV of 1. Mid-division runners have fared worst of all, but from a very small sample size, so that might not be entirely reliable, whilst held-up runners are also very close to par.

When we combine running style with draw, the ideal scenario is a low drawn leader (for fairly obvious reasons) and aside from a poor return from a small number of mid-div runners, low drawn runners fare the best full stop. High drawn mid-div runners are fourth best.

So the likes of Exalted Angel and Summerghand in stalls 1 and 2 would be best off if they tried to set the pace early doors, whilst the fav Oxted in stall 7 could let them get on with it and pounce later. This (in draw order), however, is how they've all tended to run...

Neither Exalted Angel nor Summerghand look particularly well suited, but I'm not convinced about the mid-div stats as they're based on such a small sample size and likewise for Jouska, but she has a poorer draw. The other four are probably in as good a zone on the graphic as they could be.

Summary

I don't see anything beating Oxted here based on last year's race and what I've documented above. Whether he's worth backing at 8/11 is up to you, I fully expected him to be around 4/6, so the market is about right.

If you don't want to back him at those odds and you want an E/W bet or a placer to go in a forecast etc, then everything I've written points to Summerghand and Exalted Angel being "best of the rest". They're very closely matched and were only a head apart last time out. The former, however, is a better performer on the Flat than the latter, so it's Summerghand to reconfirm his narrow superiority over Exalted Angel for me in the bid to chase Oxted home, although at odds of 13/2 and 12/1 respectively, the Angel looks a more attractive option on potential returns!

 

Racing Insights, 13th April 2021

We were right to oppose the 5/6 fav Kettle Hill this afternoon, as he failed to even make the frame, but our preferred pick Dawaaleeb was beaten by a neck after ditching his usual front-running tactics. This left our other identified pacemaker, Defence Treaty, with the opportunity to set the fractions and he hung on grimly to secure the win at 20/1, just holding our pick off.

Not our day, but we'll have other opportunities and I'll be keeping an eye out for Global Spirit next time. As I thought he might, he faded late on, but ran well for a long way, so would be of interest on his next appearance.

Now, to Tuesday, where The Shortlist report is our 'feature of the day' and our free races are as follows...

  • 1.00 Newmarket
  • 1.15 Newton Abbot
  • 2.35 Southwell
  • 2.45 Newmarket
  • 4.30 Newmarket

There's not a lot catching my eye from The Shortlist report for Tuesday, so I'll turn to our handful of free races for today's and seeing as the fourth on that list is not only the "best" race of the five, it also features a runner from our 2021 Flat profiling community project. So, without further ado, let's focus on the 2.45 Newmarket, which is a 9-runner, Class 2 Flat handicap for 4yo+ horses over a mile on Good ground, that might well be firmer in places. Top prize is £10,800 and it will go to one of...

We've no LTO winners in the filed, but seven of the nine have won at least once in their last five outings. Six ran in this grade last time out, but Makram is up one class whilst both Overwrite and Madame Tantzy ran in Class 4 contests. Only Maxi Boy and Rhythmic Intent are without a win at this trip, whilst we've four course and distance winners.

The Geegeez ratings are fairly close between Madame Tantzy (99), Rhythmic Intent (95), Hortzadar (91) and Scottish Summit/Dogged (both 87),  suggesting a tight affair, whilst the middle of those five, Hortzadar is the Flat profiles horse, more on that very shortly. Four of the field have raced in the past 17 days, whilst the other five have been off track for at least 12 weeks with Dogged now re-appearing after a break of almost 40 weeks!

Oh This Is Us carries top weight of 9st 12lbs off a mark of 102. He's a former course and distance winner but has laboured on the all-weather this spring finishing 9th of 13 off 104 and 9th of 14 off 103. he's back on turf and down another pound, but has no 5lb claimer on board today to reduce his effective mark below 100. He's 2 from 6 here at HQ, but hasn't won on the Flat for over 31 months and although his yard are in good form right now, I think he'll fall short again here.

Hortzadar was put forward for the Flat profiles by Gold subscriber andynic with the following short note...Distance 7f-8f, no of runners 2-10... He's 5 from 5 under those circumstances, including 4/4 over 1m, 2/2 at Class 2, both over a mile. So, conditions look ideal and he's only 3lbs higher than when last winning at Goodwood in September at this class/trip and made a promising reappearance to finish third, just 2 lengths adrift in the Lincoln last month despite a 161 day absence. He looks the one to beat.

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Maxi Boy was a promising 2 yr old who won on debut and was third in a Group 2 race here in July 2019. he struggled next time out in another Group 2 race and then wasn't seen for 455 days. The break didn't appear to affect him too much as he came within two necks of winning a Class 2 handicap on his return. The fact he hasn't raced in the 166 days since then suggests something might not quite be right with him and although he clearly has ability, I'm concerned that 1 run in 22 months isn't enough.

Rhythmic Intent had a good start to his 2020 campaign with two wins and a runner-up finish from his first four seasonal outings, so he'd be expected to be ready to go here, despite a 5 month absence. He acquitted himself well on his final run of 2020 with a good 2nd of 23 in Doncaster's Class 2 November handicap when a length and three quarters behind a winner who has won twice since. Definite chances here.

Scottish Summit is possibly better than recent form might suggest, as he went pretty well for much of his run in the Lincoln at Doncaster last month before weakening late on. He made the frame in 7 of his 9 Flat runs last season, winning twice (the last of which was here over C&D) and whilst he's possibly a tad high in the weights, could well nick a place at a decent price.

Overwrite was certainly kept busy last season, racing 11 times in 21 weeks, getting home first in two of them (won one and was disqualified in another after hanging right). He struggled in the Spring Mile last month and was beaten off this mark on the A/W at Newcastle in a Class 4 last week. This is much tougher and I think mid-division is about as good as he'll be.

Makram is a prime example of why you need to loo beyond form figures. Finishes of 21818 from his five career runs to date would spark interest, but closer analysis shows he won a Class 5, 7f, A/W novice race by half a length and a Class 4 Flat handicap by a length and a quarter. He was then 8th of 13 on his Class 3 debut last time out and although he didn't have the best of draws, he was never really in the race and now going off that same mark and stepping up another class after a 234-day absence, I'd want to look elsewhere.

Dogged won a Class 2 nursery here over course and distance back in September 2019, but has only raced three times since then and results have been disappointing, although a 5th of 10 here over C&D last time out suggested there might be something about him. He has been gelded during his long layoff and it is hoped that will spark some improvement, but even if it does, I think he'll need the run.

Madame Tantzy is an interesting sort at the foot of the weights. The only mare in the race was a winner two starts ago when landing a Class 3 handicap over course and distance last September, prior to a five length defeat on the A/W at Kempton. She's probably a little high in the weights still off 79 and will probably need a run, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her winning at Class 3 off a lower mark this summer.

We know that Hortzadar should have conditions to suit here, but Instant Expert can quickly highlight how his rivals have also fared in past Flat handicaps...

Makram and Madame Tantzy look high in the weights based off their last win, whilst Oh This Is Us is the standout horse for me from the above. Rhythmic Intent and particularly Scottish Summit are solid placers who haven't converted enough good runs into wins, whilst Dogged's figures are good from small sample sizes from a fairly long time ago.

In 47 past contests of this nature, the suggestion is that you either want to be in stall 1 or drawn high. I know that seems a little incongruent, but that's what the data tells us...

Further analysis of those 47 races says the further forward you can race, the better with 34 of the races going to leaders/prominent runners, despite them only representing less than half of the runners.

That, of course, doesn't mean that low drawn runners or those who race from further off the pace can't win here, but if you race mid-division, you need a low draw, whilst hold up runners need to be away from those first three stalls. Highly drawn prominent runners just about shade it here...

...and this is how these nine runners have raced in their last four outings. We've superimposed them in draw order onto that heat map above and Overwrite / Dogged look best suited from that.

Summary

We started with Hortzadar and his record under similar circumstances and I suggested he's the one to beat. He isn't particularly well off on the pace/draw chart, but he does have that stall 1 to his advantage. All things considered, I still think he's the one to beat here. 10/3 is a little shorter than I'd hoped for, but that still might end up being a good price.

That's the easy bit done in a way and I'm tempted to say good night at this point, but I know you like a top three and the possibility of a cheeky E/W punt, so here's where I'm at.  I like Rhythmic Intent best of the rest, he goes well fresh, tends to do his best work early season and could well run Hortzadar close, but at 11/2 is too short for an E/W bet for me.

That leaves me with one to find and this is where it's tricky. I actually think there are a couple of over-priced runners here in the shape of Scottish Summit (16/1) and Oh This Is Us (12/1). The above data and write-ups would tend to suggest the latter would be the better option of the two, but something is nagging at the back of my mind to go with Scottish Summit.

All of which is suggested to you with one caveat...Maxi Boy is a potential fly in the ointment. I suspect he's going to need the run after being so inactive for a long time, but he's certainly good enough to win a race like this. I just hope it's not this one!

Newmarket TV Trends: Fri 9th Oct 2020

More LIVE ITV action on Friday 9th October 2020 for day one of the two-day Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket.

Plenty to get stuck into with the Group One Bet365 Fillies’ Mile the clear feature race, but with the Cornwallis Stakes, Oh So Sharp Stakes and Challenge Stakes supporting then there is a lot to look forward to.

As always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

 

1.50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV3

15/17 – Had won over 5f previously
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
13/17 – Rated 98 or more
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 ½ or less
13/17 – Won at least twice or more before
12/17 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/17 – Had raced 5 or more times
11/17 – Foaled in March or later
10/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
8/17 – Filly winners
6/17 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Kingscote
2 of the last 6 winners trained by Jonathan Portman
2 of the last 11 winners trained by Kevin Ryan
2 of the last 11 winners ridden by Jamie Spencer
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 3
3 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 11 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

 

2.25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV3

15/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Had between 1-2 wins already
14/16 – Had between 1-3 career runs
13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
12/16 – Won last time out
12/16 – Foaled in March or later
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Had won over 7f or further before
8/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/16 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3 winners)
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

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3.00 – The Godolphin Stud & Stable Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV3

17/17 – Won a Listed or Group race previously
17/17 – Won over 7f previously
17/17 – Raced 3 or more times that season
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Won 3 or more times previously
14/17 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
13/17 –  Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/17 – Officially rated 113 or higher
11/17 – Priced 7/1 or lower
9/17 – Placed in their last race
9/17 – Favourites placed
8/17 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
6/17 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Goodwood (2) last time out
5/17 – Won their previous race
5/17 - Favourites that won
2/17 – Trained by Henry Candy
1/17 – Filly/Mare winners
Limato has won the race in 2017, 2018 and was runner-up in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

 

3.35 – Bet365 Fillies´ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV3

16/16 - Finished in the first three last time out
16/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
15/16- Yet to win a Group 1
14/16 – Finished in the first two last time out
14/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
14/16 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
12/16 – Had won between 2-3 times before
12/16 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Had won a Group race before
9/16 - Foaled in Feb or March
7/16 - Raced at Doncaster last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
7/16 - Winning favourites (or joint)
6/16 – Irish-trained winners
4/16 - Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – US bred
3/16 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4 of the last 6 winners have been Irish-trained
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

4.10 – Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV3

6 previous runnings
5/6 – Had won at least twice before
5/6 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
5/6 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
4/6 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/6 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/6 – Priced 8/1 in the betting
2/6 – Ridden by William Buick
2/6 – Came from stall 17
1/6 – winning favourites
Trainer Ralph Becket won the race last season
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 13/1

 

 

 

 

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Racing Insights, 3rd October 2020

Friday's race was a really interesting affair, with just half a length separating the first six home.

Our highlighted runners went well too. Be Proud did indeed go off as favourite, but at 3/1 I felt he was too short and left him alone, leaving us with Another Angel , who was third at 9/1 whilst the one I liked most, Young Tiger was a runner-up at 14/1, beaten by just a head.

Both highlighted placers finished well and had Young Tiger not dwelt at the start, it could have been a winner. Hopefully, those of you who did have a dabble went E/W and got something back. Next up is...

Saturday 3rd October

Feature of the Day is the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, which is free on Saturday to all registered subscribers. Register here if you need to.

Saturday's free Races of the Day are

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1.15 Tipperary
1.40 Newmarket
3.20 Newmarket
3.55 Newmarket
4.04 Fontwell
6.30 Wolverhampton

So, I'm going to discard the 1.40 (too many runners) and the two maiden contests (3.55 & 6.30), leaving me with three to choose from and I'm going with...

3.20 Newmarket : a 7-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Soft ground worth £27,390 to the winner.

This race features two runners (Inclyne & Hyanna) on the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, so let's take a look at those two and see if we can predict how they'll get on tomorrow.

We'll start with the racecard and the relevant Trainer/Jockey records...

Georgia Dobie has 16 wins from 76 (21.05% SR) for Eve Johnson Houghton over the last twelve months at an A/E of 1.63 and an IV of 2.11 and together the pair are 2 from 6 (33.33% SR, A/E 2.63 & IV 3.04) here at Newmarket over the last five years.

Whereas William Buick is 4/11 (36.36% SR, A/E 1.45 & IV 3.64) for Andrew Balding over the last year and together, their 5-year Newmarket record stands at 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) at an A/E of 1.60 and IV of 3.42.

Neither of those records would put me off, so what about the pace/draw aspect?

This is more problematical, as neither are particularly well drawn for their running style, but this is a 1m4f contest and in a small field, tactics might well be changed to suit the occasion and with Hyanna being closer to the green on the heat map, I think she shades this one.

If we refer back to the racecard and the Geegeez ratings, Inclyne is well clear of the pack on 88, whilst Hyanna is joint worst at 66 and then I'd like to look at past performances under today's conditions ie...

Venue : Hyanna is 1/4 at Newmarket, whilst Inclyne is 1/3
Going : 1/4 on Soft against 0/3
Trip : 3/14 against 1/2
Jockey : Hyanna is 2/10 under Georgia Dobie, whilst this is William Buick's first ride on Inclyne
Number of runners : Hyanna's 4/9 in fields of 1-7 runners is excellent, whilst Inclyne is 0/1
Class : 2 from 12 for Hyanna at Class 2 versus Inclyne's first step up to this grade
Days Since Run : 4 from 15 at 16-30 dslr against 8/1 at 8-15 dslr

Summary

Other than the Geegeez Speed Rating, Hyanna looks a safer option than Inclyne and her experience at this level might prove beneficial in a contest where five of her six rivals are having to step up in class.

I'd be inclined to have a small win bet on her with a couple of caveats. I'd prefer the ground to be a bit drier and I'm a little worried about her shouldering top weight, so I'm going to suggest a 20/80 bet on Hyanna with Betfair or another exchange with 0.2pts on the win and 0.8pts on the place.

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : Laafy @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders centre group, pushed along and outpaced when groups merged over 2f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong )

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 5-runner, Group 2, Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes for 2yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56,710 to the winner... 

Why?...

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We start with the racecard, one report and one of my own angles...

...followed by the pace/draw heat map...

...and finally the speed ratings...

All the above, bar my own Frankie Dettori angle should be self-explanatory, but briefly we've an in-form 2 yr old hailing from a yard with a good record at this venue (C5). Our pick will be ridden by Frankie Dettori who himself is in good form (14, 30) and also rides well here (C1, C5).

Please note the 14, 30, C1 & C5 are all detailed via clicking the trainer and/or jockey form icon under the horse's name.

As all the above is readily available to you all, I won't patronise you by going over them and I'll spend my time briefly touching on that Sire snippet before explaining my Frankie Dettori angle.

This is the first season for offspring of sire New Bay and with 12 wins from 49, they've made an impressive start and all I'd want to add those numbers is that if you just backed those sent off at 10/1 or shorter within 45 days of their last run, you'd have 10 wins from 25 (40% SR) and profits of 21.1pts at an ROI of 84.4%.

And now that Frankie Dettori angle. Frankie needs no introduction from me, of course and as one of (if not) the best in the business, but as such his rides tend to be overbet making it difficult to profit from him. In fact, backing him every time since the start of 2016 looks like this...

...and 2.76pts profit from 1311 bets just doesn't float my boat, so I apply these simple / logical filters...

to get me to this point (the racecard version includes his two rides today, hence the difference in the total number of runs)...

which I then take to this point before further deeper analysis...

...and those 574 rides include of relevance today...

  • 142/549 (25.9%) on the Flat
  • 139/526 (26.4%) at Class 1
  • 123/388 (31.7%) from those placed LTO
  • 92/268 (34.3%) in fields of 8 or fewer runners
  • 91/249 (36.6%) from LTO winners
  • 43/145 (29.7%) during September/October
  • 37/123 (30.1%) in Group 2 races
  • and 22/100 (22%) here on the Rowley...

...whilst LTO winners in Class 1 Flat contests of 8 or fewer runners are 43 from 107 (40.2% SR), including 10 from 23 (43.5%) at Group 2, 9 from 16 (56.25%) in September and 4 from 7 (57.1%) at Group 2 in September...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 12.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

2.05 Pontefract : Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Made all, ridden and ran on, winning by 2.5 lengths easing down)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Laafy @ 3/1 BOG

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Eqtidaar Godolphin Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground worth £17,013 to the winner...

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Why?...

Like yesterday, we'll start with the horse's suitability for today's conditions as highlighted in the Shortlist report, where green is good and grey is unproven/unknown...

And here's how the colours translate into numbers. From a Flat record of 4 wins from 11 starts (36.4% SR), this 4yr old gelding is...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f
  • 4/8 (50%) in fields of 10 runners or less
  • 3/7 (42.9%) wearing a visor
  • 3/6 (50%) when not the favourite
  • 2/5 (40%) over this 1m4f trip
  • 2/4 (50%) in August/September
  • 1/2 (50%) on Good ground
  • and also 1/2 (50%) in non-handicaps

Next we turn to the racecard itself...

...which shows a well-drawn, 4 yr old gelding in decent form and rated top on our Speed Ratings. His yard and jockey are both also in good nick as denoted by the 14 & 30 icons, whilst rider Ryan Moore has a good long term record at this venue C5 (full details of all those numbers can be seen by clicking the trainer or jockey form boxes).

What I want to focus on are the two subsequent reports relating to the trainer/jockey combo and the sire stats. So, in that same order, we can see that Messrs Stoute and Moore have been amongst the winners of late, but more long term in decent races, they have done very well with favoured horses, as in...

...from which, those 53 are...

  • 26/49 (53.1%) on the Flat
  • 21/36 (58.3%) were placed LTO
  • 13/23 (56.5%) from 4 yr olds
  • 11/21 (52.4%) won LTO
  • 10/18 (55.6%) at 1m4f
  • 10/16 (62.5%) in fields of 6 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) on Good ground
  • 6/10 (60%) in Listed contests
  • 6/8 (75%) stepping up a class
  • 4/6 (66.6%) in races worth £17k-£20k
  • and 3/3 (100%) with runners rated (OR) 95-105

And now to those Sire Staying numbers, where I want to focus on this angle...

...which has produced...

  • 7/20 (35%) from males & 6/14 (42.9%) on the Flat
  • 6/9 (66.6%) at odds shorter than 5/1 & 4/11 (36.4%) over a 1m4f trip
  • 4/10 (40%) from 4 yr olds & 4/6 (66.6%)  from horses rated (OR) 100-110
  • 3/6 (50%) in non-handicaps & 3/3 (100%) in races worth £13-25k
  • 2/5 (40%) in fields of 3-6 runners & 2/5 (40%) in September
  • 2/4 (50%) on Good ground & 2/3 (66.6%) at Class 1
  • 1/1 (100%) in Listed contests & 1/1 (100%) at Newmarket

...all of which led me to... a 1pt win bet on Laafy @ 3/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.50 Chelmsford : Huraiz @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, unable to challenge winner, stayed on and closing close home but failed by a neck)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Matewan @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

A consistent sort whose SR rating of 85 is a good way ahead of his rivals here today. Those last 5 runs shown above (22221) were all on the All-Weather over today's trip immediately following a win at Ripon, also over this trip on good to soft ground. He has one win and one runner-up finish from two runs on this track, he has three wins and four runner-up places from eight efforts at this trip and of his overall four career wins...

  • all were at 4/1 or shorter
  • all in fields of 6-9 runners
  • all in handicap company
  • three at Class 4
  • three in cheekpieces
  • three going right handed

My other area of interest here is the jockey booking, because although Adam Kirby doesn't ride many of Ian Williams' horses, I'm going to suggest it's not because they don't work well together, because they've actually got a great record of...

from which...

  • male runners are 20/58 (34.5%) for 30.46pts (+52.5%)
  • those competing for £2k to £8k are 20/49 (40.8%) for 39.46pts (+80.5%)
  • those sent off shorter than a 6/1 official SP are 19/40 (47.5%) for 33.24pts (+83.1%)
  • 3 to 5 yr olds are 15/38 (39.5%) for 33.06pts (+87%)
  • those racing against 4 to 8 rivals are 13/32 (40.6%) for 14.07pts (+44%)
  • class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 6.12pts (+61.2%)
  • and here on the July course : 1/1 (100%) for 0.77pts (+7.7%)

...whilst Williams + Kirby + males + 6/1 max SP + sub-£8k winner's prize produces...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Matewan @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!