Tag Archive for: Newmarket Racecourse

Tix Picks, Friday 27/09/24

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Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Haydock, Newmarket, Wolverhampton & Worcester.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at HQ once again, where the Rowley course is said to be soft for our races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 1.50 Newmarket, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m...

Doom started the season with three placed efforts at Gr 2/3, but seems to have lost her way lately finishing last of nine and sixth of seven. This is a slight drop in class, but others arrive here in better nick. Sirona also started her season with a pair of Gr 3 placed finishes going sown by no more than a length each time, but after finishing 5th of 7 in a Gr 1 race here at Newmarket, was only 6th of 8 at Ascot last time out.

Spiritual was a Listed class runner-up at York in mid-May and then a winner at Sandown seven weeks later where she made all, but couldn't repeat the feat last time out when upped to Gr 3, finishing 4th of 9. Arisiag's best effort to date is a narrow Class 3 handicap win at Goodwood three starts ago and whilst she's probably going to be a decent handicapper, she might be out of her depth here.

Fair Point looks progressive and after finishing in the first three home in all seven career starts (2 wins), she comes here off the back of a Class 2 handicap win at Ascot where she made all on soft ground. Yes, she's up in class here, but could well be suited to the task. Rolica won a Class 2 maiden here over 7f and was then thrown straight into the 1000 Guineas over this course and distance in early-May, where she wasn't disgraced going down by three lengths as 6th of 18, but couldn't replicate that effort next/last time out when a Gr 3 5th of 9 at Sandown, a place and two lengths behind Spiritual, although she's 3lbs better off here.

Sirona, Spiritual and Fair Point have all won on soft ground, Spiritual has a Class 1 turf win, Rolica has won on this track, whilst Spiritual, Arsaig and Fair Point are all one-mile winners on the Flat, whilst place form looks like this...

Arsaig is probably the one I'm least keen on here, but you could make a case for any of the other five. However, after looking at the pace data and seeing that front-runners fare best, this...

...leads me to picking (3) Spiritual and (5) Fair Point

Leg 2 : 2.25 Newmarket, an 8-runner, 3yo+ fillies and mares Group 3 contest over 1m4f...

Mistral Star has won three of her last seven, including a 1m4f Listed success on the July course here two starts ago and this should represent a slightly easier task than her last race, when 4th of 8 in the Gr 1 Yorkshire Oaks. Time Lock actually won this race last year, but hasn't reproduced the same form in four subsequent races at Gr1 & Gr 2, but the ability to win this is certainly there.

Elsewhere Sea of Roses won a soft ground Listed race last time out, Divian Grace won a Listed race on the July course here two starts ago and the unexposed 3yo Place of Safety was second in the same race, a length and a quarter behind Divina Grace, but remains open to improvement.

Sea of Roses has won two of four on soft ground, but her 1 from 10 record at Class 1 is a worry, mind you Time Lock is also 1 from 10 at Class 1, but has won twice here at Newmarket and twice over this trip, as has Mistral Star, whilst the place stats suggest the top half of the card is the place to be...

(2) Mistral Star is the horse I'd back here if I was looking to find the winner, so she goes on the ticket and from that graphic above, I have to take last year's winner (4) Time Lock who is now down in class with (1) Divina Grace the outsider option.

Leg 3 : 3.00 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 2yo fillies Group 2 race over 7f...

AP O'Brien sends both Bubbling and Ecstatic over for this one and I think I marginally prefer the former to the latter. Bubbling was denied a clear run at Leopardstown last time out, but was still 3rd home of 9 in that Listed race, beaten by less than a length. A clearer run here could be all that it takes for her to land this, although Formal looked very impressive when winning on soft ground at Leicester last time out. She looked strong, made all and had the race wrapped up with a furlong to go. She's up in class here, of course, but looks really progressive. Duty First is also of interest, having finished a Group 3 runner-up on soft ground at Goodwood last time out and as a confirmed front-runner is of obvious interest here.

Runners (1) Bubbling, (3) Duty First and (5) Formal for me here in a bid to cover most bases!

Leg 4 : 3.35 Newmarket, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over a mile...

Ice Max has won three of his last four including a soft ground Group 2 success at Goodwood over today's trip last time out, beating the re-opposing Poker Face by a length, although Poker Face is now 5lbs better off today, so he could reverse those placings today. Lead Artist is possibly the one to beat here. He has been in the first three home in all five career starts to date, won a Group 3 race two races ago and was a Gr 2 runner-up behind the experienced Kinross at Doncaster last time out.

Of this three-runner shortlist, Instant Expert suggests that Poker Face might be the weakest of the trio under today's conditions...

...and with him being closely matched with Ice Max, I'll side with the latter and take (3) Ice Max along with (5) Lead Artist here

Leg 5 : 4.10 Newmarket, a 13-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 7f...

Seven of the thirteen have yet to race and of the six who have, Seaplane sets the standard with a pair of runner-up finishes, the most recent by just a neck in a higher grade at Ascot with the re-opposing Frankini a length and a half further back on his debut and with Frankini's yard having a 43.2% place strike rate with runners making their second start, he's of interest here...

Archivist was also a runner-up last time out, beaten by a length and a half at Leicester after a slow start and if he gets going a little quicker here, should also be in the mix. Of the debutants, William Buick has chosen Secret Theory over Music of Time from the Appleby-trained Godolphin pair, so that might be a pointer here too.

And in a safety first approach to a field of unknown quantities, I'll take all four from my shortlist ie (1) Archivist, (5) Frankini, (10) Seaplane and (11) Secret Theory

Leg 6 : 4.45 Newmarket, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m4f...

Military Academy is 2 from 2 and Lucentio has won his last three, but this Gosden-trained pair are both significantly up in class today, although they do both get weight all round from their rivals. Quietness has five wins and a runner-up finish from her last six.

Ziggy's run of eight top-three finishes (2 wins) was ended when he was 13th of 20, beaten by 7.5 lengths in the Ebor last month, whilst stamina shouldn't be an issue for Epic Poet who won the Old Borough Cup at Haydock over 1m6f last time out, staying on well and was 4th in the Ebor over the same trip on his penultimate run. Bigger fields don't faze him either.

My shortlist is completed by Aimeric, who landed a pair of Class 2 handicaps 252 days apart in September '23 and May '24 before a four-race run at Class 1 and whilst not winning any, has run his race each time as a runner-up in back to back Listed races beaten by 2.75 lengths and then by a neck. He was beaten by just over three lengths in a Group 3 race at Goodwood before going down by less than half a length to Sea of Roses (runs in the 2.25 here) in a soft ground Windsor Listed race last time out. An unlikely winner here, but definitely in contention for the frame.

Of this half dozen, only Lucentio has won on soft ground, whilst Aimeric is 4 from 8 at the trip and Quietness is 3 from 3.

Our pace/draw heatmap suggests that the winners comes from (4) Epic Poet and (9) Military Academy...

...so I'll take both of them along with a longer-priced runner in the shape of  (7) Quietness from the place heatmap...

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 3 & 5

Leg 2: horses 1, 2 & 4

Leg 3: horses 1, 3 & 5

Leg 4: horses 3 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 5, 10 & 11

Leg 6: horses 4, 7 & 9

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris



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Tix Picks, Thursday 26/09/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Newmarket, Perth, Pontefract and Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and I think we'll head to HQ, where the going is expected to be predominantly good for...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Newmarket, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m

Not the easiest start to a placepot with seven of the eight on debut! Seacruiser is thew only one with a run under his belt, having finished 5th of 10 in a Class 2 maiden at Goodwood just over three weeks ago. He was beaten by 4.5 lengths that day after being sent off as the 5/2 fav. He should find this easier today, having had that experience and he also drops two classes. The two horses immediately in front of him have both won next time out, so that's a good sign.

Of ther debutants, Naval Command is a half-brother to St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov and has already got a Group 1 entry for the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster in October, so his team must think he has something and with William Buick riding him over stablemate Present Times, you could assume Naval Command is the Appleby first-string?

That said, due to bloodlines, you can never safely rule out Goldolphin 2 yr olds on debut, so Present Times is still in the reckoning, despite Mr Buick choosing Naval Command (James Doyle is no mug in fairness), as is the Gosden trained Devil's Advocate.

I'd hate to crash & burn on leg 1, so it's a safety-first approach with runners (1) Devil's Advocate, (4) Naval Command, (5) Present Times and (6) Seascruiser taken for the ticket builder and I'm still worried!

Leg 2 : 2.10 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 1m

Another tricky inexperienced field to deal with here, as only Jack Andrea has raced in handicap company before and after only finishing fourth of six at Sandown recently, is now fitted with cheekpieces.

Celeborn and Louie the Legend are the only two with wins under their belt so far. The former took a while to settle on debut at Leicester back in June but once the penny dropped, he stayed on really well to win by 1.5 lengths. He was then gelded during a three month break and returned with a more than creditable third place at Salisbury a fortnight ago.

Louie The Legend has got progressively better in his three runs, finishing 4th of 8 (4.5 lengths down) over 7f at Newcastle on debut at the end of June and then 2nd of 12 (2L) at Chelmsford in early August, before winning at 7f maiden at Chepstow on his turf debut a month ago in a 15-runner field.

Elsewhere, Olympus Point looks reasonably well treated off a mark of just 78 despite making the frame in all three career starts and never beaten by far and the same could be said about Gap Year off a mark of 72. Three of his four starts have been at Class 2 and he drops two classes here having finished 2nd of 15, 3rd of 10 and 4th of 11 at that higher grade. Throw in a 4th of 15 at Class 3 and it could well be that he's better than the assessor thinks.

These four would be my shortlist here, but I don't want to take four from seven from each of the first two races. (1) Celeborn and (2) Olympus Point are definite picks for me based on the above and of the other two, I'll take (3) Louie The Legend, because he won LTO, but might be a longer price.

Leg 3 : 2.45 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 6f

Another tight-looking race here, but one I should be more comfortable with all seven runners having raced at least five times and all having won at least once. That said, none of them even made the frame last time out, which os a negative, as are the 139 day and 209 day layoffs for Geologist and Kinta.

Bottom weight Dance and Romance has two wins and two places from her five career starts, whilst Funny Story has seven top-three finishes from her last eleven starts. Seven of her last eight runs have been in Listed company and with a string of results reading 2712234, you'd have to think she could be a bit better than Class 2?

If I'm against Geologist and Kinta (even if Kinta did win this last year) due to their lay-offs, then Instant Expert suggests that Executive Decision is the most vulnerable of the remaining five contenders...

Of the four still under consideration, recent form is against both Pinafore and Sophia's Starlight, so I'll just take (1) Funny Story and (7) Dance and Romance (who might try to make all here) from this one.

Leg 4 : 3.20 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 2yo, Group 3 contest over 7f

Diego Ventura is two from two so far, both over 6f, but doing his best work late on which suggests the step up to 7f will suit him. Huscal has won each of his last, also both staying on over 6f, but the step up from Class 4 company is huge.

Monumental was a runner-up over 6f and a winner over 7f in Ireland recently before a UK debut saw him finish second on the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster less than a fortnight ago, beaten by just half a length (behind Bay City Roller) and the strength of that run alone makes him the one to beat here

In a similar vein, Symbol of Honour was a clear winner of a Class 4 maiden in mid-May before going down by less than a length in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Ascot a month later. He then took three months off before returning to action as a Listed class runner-up beaten by half a length at Doncaster a fortnight ago. The re-opposing The Waco Kid was third on that race a further 0.75 lengths back and whilst the latter is a contender here too, he'd have to improve more to be ahead of Symbol of Honour, but he makes my 5-runner shortlist.

Of the five, Huscal steps up three classes and The Waco Kid is held by Symbol of Honour, so I'll omit those two to take (3) Diego Ventura, (5) Monumental and (6) Symbol of Honour here.

Leg 5 : 3.55 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 2m

In racecard order, I suspect that this might well be a four-horse race between Harbour Wind, Al Nayyir, Night Sparkle and bottom-weight Fighter which would also represent the views of the handicapper. I know it's not a handicap, of course, but if it were, then Al Nayyir would be well in at the weights along with Fighter.

Harbour Wind's half length defeat as a runner-up on his second outing is his sole defeat in five starts and he comes here off the back of Listed class wins at both Leopardstown and Limerick, but he does concede weight all round today.

Al Nayyir was last seen pushing Irish St Leger runner-up Vauban all the way to the line in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at York five weeks ago, going down by just a short head, matching his result in March's Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan and those runs make him the one to beat here on form.

Night Sparkle has won three and been runner-up in four of her last ten on the Flat, but is winless in seven and with her 2024 form reading 272242, she screams 'consistent, but not quite good enough to win' She was 4th in the Lonsdale (above) a further two places and four lengths behind Al Nayyir and although 2lbs better off here and Group 2 runner-up LTO, I still don't see her beating Al Nayyir, but she might get closer than their last meeting.

As for Fighter, this Frankel colt is a bit of an unknown in the UK, he's getting weight all round and has won both his last two starts (Curragh & Leopardstown), but is now asked for three furlongs more than he's ever raced. That's a tough ask, but he's by Frankel and represents the O'Brien/Moore combo, so you never know.

Instant Expert suggest all four might go well here, as could Samui...

And unusually over a 2m trip, front-running has been beneficial here at Newmarket, albeit off a small sample size of races, which could benefit Fighter more than the others...

Overall, I see (2) Al Nayyir battling with (6) Night Sparkle for the win and whilst I like the breeding and the Trainer/Jockey combo behind Fighter, I think this is a big step up in both class and trip, so I'll take the ultra-consistent (1) Harbour Wind to complete my picks for this race.

Leg 6 : 4.30 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

Baltic is 5 from 5 in handicap company and that has elevated his mark by some 24lbs, but he remains the one to beat here, especially with his yard's record with LTO winners...

Candyman Stan has improved with each run and made all to romp home by nine lengths at Lingfield recently and an opening mark of 80 doesn't look too punitive. Fighter Command drops in class here after a win and three places from his five starts, whilst Woner Kid has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four and drops two classes here.

Elsewhere Macari has made the frame in his last two, but as a 4yo is 7lbs 'wrong' here with most of the field being 3 yr olds. Instant Expert leans towards the top of the card too...

..as do the pace scores...

I'd definitely want to take (1) Baltic and (4) Candyman Stan here and it's a bit of a toss-up for the final pick and although I do like the look of Fighter Command, I think (2) Wonder Kid might be better than his last result suggests.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 4 , 5 & 6

Leg 2: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 3: horses 1 & 7

Leg 4: horses 3, 5 & 6

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris



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Tix Picks, Saturday 21/09/24

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Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Chester, Newbury, Newmarket & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I think we'll head to the Rowley at HQ where the ground is expected to be good (firmer in places) for our six races today, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo fillies novice stakes...

Of the four with racecourse experience, Fool Again and Sea To Sky are ther obvious picks after runner-up finishes on debut three weeks ago. Sea To Sky was second to Flight, whose career form reads 2213 after she subsequently finished third in a Group 2 race.

Sea To Sky also drops two classes here and with her yard in such great form right now...

...she'd be my main pick here, but I'd also take Fool Again on the back of her run at Beverely. She was slow away but soon got the hang of things, gave chase, stayed on and ended up a runner-up beaten by just half a length. Maywedance was 3 places and 7 lengths further back and she has gone on to make the frame since.

Of those making their debut today, Pearl Of Hope would be the one for me. She's a half-sister to a Group 1 winner and there's a stack of stats to suggest she might go well here...

I'll take runners 2, 6 & 7 here.

Leg 2 : 2.10 Newmarket, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over a mile...

You could make a case for several of these in an open-looking race. Reach looked like she needed the run at York last time out, but had three wins and two places from her previous six outings and she's down two classes here. Surveyor has two wins and two runner-up finishes (inc LTO) from her last six, has already won over today's trip and also drops in class. Get Jiggy With It is another class-dropping LTO runner-up and she has made the frame in ten of her twelve career starts and overall I suspect we'll be making our selection from the top half of this graphic...

...and on the basis of this, I'll stick with my in-form class droppers Reach, Surveyor & Get Jiggy With It, aka runners 1, 4 & 11 with Sea Regal the obvious danger.

Leg 3 : 2.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

King of Charm won last time out, as did Kracking, whilst Musical Mystery and Bell Shot were runners-up and Kodiac Thriller finished third and on form, they'd be my shortlist here. Of those, Kracking is stepping up two classes here, so that makes life more difficult for him, but he is 2121 in his last four and looks perfectly poised on the pace/draw heat map to make the frame chasing Bell Shot home perhaps?

...whilst Instant Expert for my shortlist looked like this...

All five are easily good enough to make the frame, but I need to make a decision and I'm going to side with Bell Shot, King Of Charm and Kodiac Thriller here, runners 4, 6 & 8. I did like Kracking too, but the two class rise and that IE graphic have tempered my enthusiasm a little, but he'll probably give it a right go up front.

Leg 4 : 3.20 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Regal Envoy was a runner-up last time out, whilst both Ingra Tor and Angel Shared finished third. Miss Show Off ran really well at Sandown three weeks ago and despite finishing 4th of 10 was within three quarters of a length of the winner and a nose behind the above-mentioned Ingra Tor despite not having raced for 14 months since winning at Newbury in July 2023. Equiano Springs won this race in both 2021 and 2022, but the 10 yr old is on a 9-race losing streak.

From a pace perspective, it has paid to race in advance of mid-field here over the straight six, which gives an advantage to Dashing Dick, Miss Show Off, Regal Envoy, Angel Shared, Jungle Land, Spring Bloom and Ingra Tor (just!)

...whilst Instant Expert points to the following...

On countback of positive mentions, the closely-matched pair of Ingra Tor and Miss Show Off feature most, so I'll take both of them here with Spring Bloom as a backup plan ie runners 2, 8 & 9

Leg 5 : 3.55 Newmarket, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 2m2f...

Bringbackmemories won last time out a week ago for a second win in three starts (but last home of 16 in between the wins!). Story Horse, Robert Johnson and Premiere Ligne were all runners-up with the latter finishing 31222 in his last five whilst both Diamond Bay and bottom-weight Yorkindness has finished 323 in her last three. Elsewhere Tactician has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings and as the sole 3yo in the race will get a more than handy 11lbs weight allowance.

All bar Story Horse of the above seem well suited to the task ahead according to Instant Expert with the addition of Trooper Bisdee...

..and as earlier, I could sit and make a case for all of these, but based on form/Instant Expert, I'm going to go with Bringbackmemories, Premiere Ligne & Tactician, numbers 4, 6 and 10 on your racecards.

And we close with Leg 6 : 4.30 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m2f...

Speriamo won two days ago in a race I covered and didn't pick her! Dubai Melody and Milliterries also won last time out. Ciara Pearl is 1223 in her last four, Chorus won two starts ago and Mrs Twig is two from four and three from six, but needs to bounce back from a couple of disappointing Class 3 outings, whilst Dayzee might need the run after 204 days off, although she does seem to have the ideal pace profile...

...along with Ciara Pearl who is the pick of the pack on Instant Expert...

...making her my first choice here and with both Chorus and Dubai Melody dropping down two classes and receiving 5lbs allowances as 3 yr olds, my picks here are runners 2, 4 & 5.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 2, 6 & 7

Leg 2: horses 1, 4 & 11

Leg 3: horses 4, 6 & 8

Leg 4: horses 2, 8 & 9

Leg 5: horses 4, 6 & 10

Leg 6: horses 2, 4 & 5

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



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Racing Insights, Thursday 11/07/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Carlisle
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Doncaster
  • 6.25 Newbury
  • 8.30 Leopardstown

...the best of which has to be the 3.35 Newmarket aka the Prince of Wales' Stakes, a 6-runner, Group 2 flat race over a right-handed 1m4f on what looks like being good to soft / soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this should be Hamish's race to win/lose with (in card order) Giavelotto and Arrest the best of the rest and most likely to challenge, but let's see...

GIAVELLOTTO was last seen eight weeks ago winning the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup at York for the second year running. He carries a 3lb penalty for that win, but does drop back 2f in trip. He has won three of his last seven races, has a career place strike rate of 75% (9 from 12) and was a winner here over 1m6f back in August 2022 in what was his last handicap run.

OUTBOX is one of three Frankel offspring in this race along with Arrest and Time Lock and is a confirmed front-runner, as demonstrated when he won the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes on the Rowley track here at HQ on his last UK run (3rd May) beating the re-opposing Time Lock by 2½ lengths) to end a run of 14 consecutive UK defeats. Has finished 9th of 10 and last of 7 in two runs in Europe since and could well struggle here.

ARREST has won four of ten starts, making the frame is half of his six defeats, including two runner-up finishes in his three runs (one of which was the 2023 St Leger!) since winning the Gr 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last August. He also won the Gr 3 Chester Vase in May '23 and ran a decent race at Chester again last time out.

HAMISH won the Gr3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester just over two years ago and since then has finished in the first two home in nine successive races, winning six times taking his last ten finishes to read 1212111112 culminating in a one length defeat in the Gr 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom, when probably given too much to do late on. I can't seen him not finishing in the first two here yet again.

MAXI KING is probably way out of his depth here if truth be told. His best result to date is a Class 2 handicap win over this trip on the Rowley Mile in May but was only 11th of 16 in another Class 2 handicap at Ascot last time out.

TIME LOCK won a Listed race at Craon in France last September before going on to land the Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes on the Rowley Mile here last September and was also a 2½ length runner-up behind Giavellotto in the Jockey Club Stakes on her return from over six months off the track. She disappointed in the Coronation Cup last time out, when last home of five, beaten by the best part of 24 lengths and 23 lengths behind Hamish, so she has plenty to find here based on that result. The going is also against her here, as her two wins in the UK came on Good to Firm ground.

Instant Expert also puts a tick next to Hamish's name based purely on win stats under today's expected conditions...

...with Arrest probably next in line, although Giavellotto's place figures would appear to be better than Arrest's and the chances are that these are both vying for second place if truth be told...

...and Outbox looks hard to back/recommend!

As you'd expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a trip of a mile and a half in a small field, but if there is anything to be gained, then the lower half of the draw has prevailed most often, not withstanding a freakish result for stall 5, which might give more hope to followers of Giavellotto...

If a horse does want to gain an advantage, there is a way and that's by dictating the pace of the race from the front as leaders here have done far better in those races above from both a win and place perspective, than the other three running styles...

...which might just give Outbox a chance of competing if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

So, Outbox is drawn low and has the ideal pace profile here in a race that lacks other genuine front-runners, but he's in poor form right now and I can't see Ryan Moore (on Time Lock) letting him get as far clear as he did in the Jockey Club Stakes in May, especially as Time Lock is 3lbs better off here. What I suspect will happen is that Outbox will be sent out to win from the front the other five will race together and slowly reel him in.

Summary

I still can't see Hamish getting beaten here and whilst I'm not normally a fan of backing shorties, his current (5pm Wednesday) price of 10/11 might even represent some value, as he has been sent off shorter than that in three of his last six Group 3 contests. So I suppose, it's just a case of ho comes second and that's still down to Giavelotto / Arrest for me. There's not much to choose between them, if truth be told, but Giavelotto has a better place record than Arrest and his 6/1 ticket offers more value than the latter's 7/2 and could well be an E/W option at 1/4 odds.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 27/06/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.00 Newcastle
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 4.30 Newmarket
  • 9.00 Leicester

...from which we're off to the July course at HQ for the 4.30 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3 , 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

...a field where all bar Ararat have raced in the last four weeks. He returns from a nine-month absence but is the only LTO winner in this race. Elsewhere Mitrosonfire was a recent runner-up and both Benacre and Darkness made the frame on their last outings. The field are, however, a little shy of wins in their recent form lines as only Havana Blue (2 from 6), Persuasion, Ararat (2 from 4) and Lord Rapscallion have managed to win any of their last seven races.

Mitrosonfire, Able Kane and Waiting All Night might struggle to end their losing runs as they now step up a class here, as do LTO winner Ararat and bottom weight Lord Rapscallion, but Persuasion drops down a level.

Waiting All Night is the only runner in the field yet to win over this trip, as his sole win in 18 races to date was over 5f at Wolverhampton and he's 0 from 14 on turf but Darkness has won over a mile here at Newmarket, whilst Havana Blue, Ararat, Mitrosonfire and Able Kane are all former course and distance winners.

Instant Expert shows us quite clearly how difficult this field has found it to win over the last two years...

...with the returning Ararat probably the pick of the pack. I'm hoping that the place stats suggest that some of these have been unlucky, because I'm already getting question marks about Toimy Son (trip), Persuasion (class. track and trip), Mitrosonfire (trip), Darkness (going, class and trip), Able Kane (class & trip), Waiting All Night (trip) and Lord Rapscallion (Generally!); it might have been easier to say who I didn't have too many concerns about.

We'd better check those place stats!

...and they certainly show a few of these in a different light, especially Persuasion and Darkness. Their win stats make them hard to back outright, but they're certainly to strangers to making the frame. Benacre loves the trip and has placed here too, so these three could be a second look later along with Ararat (from the win stats) and maybe Havana Blue.

Benacre was a Listed class runner-up, beaten by just three quarters of a length over this trip on the Rowley track here last summer and that should stand him in good stead today as he lines up closest to the rail, now that Arabian Storm (who had been drawn in stall 1) has been withdrawn. That said, I don't think there's much to be gained from stalls position here today

...although those drawn higher have made the frame slightly more often, but there's really not a great deal in it and I suspect that much more will depend on race tactics, because the pace stats for those near-150 races above tells a pretty clear story...

...that being up with the pace is key here from both a win and place perspective. Leaders make up approximately 13.3% of the runners in those races, but have accounted for 28.5% of the winners, which speaks for itself and this looks like more good news for Ararat, Benacre and Darkness if their last few runs are anything to go by...

Summary

The above stats say that pace wins the race here over 7f and alphabetically Ararat, Benacre and Darkness are the three most likely to set the tempo of this contest. Ararat was the sole standout on the win side of our daily feature, Instant Expert, whilst Benacre and Darkness both had good place records, so I think that they're going to be my three against the field.

It's a bit of a gamble that Ararat will be race-sharp after nine months off, but if pushed to pick a winner, it'd be him and Hills were offering 7/1 at 4.15pm on Wednesday, which is bordering on E/W territory, never mind a win bet! Darkness and Benacre were trading at 11/2 and 6/12 respectively, so neither would take my fancy as an E/W bet, but I expect both to give a good account of themselves.



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Racing Insights, Friday 17/05/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have generated no runners for me to consider but thankfully, this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.15 York
  • 3.53 Newmarket
  • 4.25 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Newmarket
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.30 Leopardstown

...from which, I'll take a look at the 4.25 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on the good to firm Rowley course...

Iron Lion and true Courage both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three, as has Composite. Most of the field have won at least once in their last five but The Whipmaster and Moktasaab are on losing runs of seven and twelve races respectively whilst Swiss Money has been beaten in all seven UK starts.

It also looks like he's up two classes here, but that's from a hurdles run, his last Flat race was at this level, but Iron Lion, Composite (second handicap run today), The Whipmaster (new trainer licence name, NOT new trainer but does wear first-time tongue-tie) and Moktasaab are all up one class for this one.

Most of the field have raced in the last five weeks, so should be race fit and Moktasaab should also be OK after an eight-week rest, but top-weight Fox Journey might well need a run, having not raced since October 2023. That said, he did win here at Newmarket (1m2f) this time last year on his combeack from a 190-day absence, so maybe 205 days won't be an issue.

He's the only previous course winner in the field and like Iron Lion, Composite, Vaynor and True courage, he has already won over today's trip elsewhere...

Instant Expert doesn't give us too much assistance on the win front today, but it does suggest that The Whipmaster might be up against it having failed at class and distance half a dozen times. Vaynor prefers good ground or an artificial surface, whilst Iron Lion and Fox Journey are both a fair bit higher than their last winning marks. The corresponding place stats from those races above show that both The Whipmaster and True Courage usually go pretty well on good to firm ground...

...but the doubts about the former's ability at this trip remain.

Similar past races here at HQ suggest that stalls 2 to 5 might be the place to be, although there's not a great deal in it...

...and I suspect that race tactics/positioning might be more important today, as those races above show a distinct advantage for those willing to take it on...

...and this is reinforced by the pace/draw heat map...

We already know the draw, so let's look at how these runners normally approach their races to see if there's a pattern...

To be honest, it doesn't look like there's much pace in the race at all and this could lead to a falsely-run affair, which would play into the hands of those who come here in the best form and those who would normally struggle if there's early pace. Vaynor has led a couple of times recently and he's probably going to end up doing so again today, but he wouldn't normally feature too high on my list of 'possibles'

Summary

In card order, I'd be quite surprised if the first three home didn't come from Fox Journey, Iron Lion, Composite and True Courage, from which I think I'd side with the returning Fox Journey. I expect a tight battle, though and of the other three runners, I suspect Iron Lion will offer least value.

I'd no odds available at 3.20pm on Thursday, but I'd hope for 3/1 or bigger about Fox Journey, but I doubt I'll get viable E/W odds about any of the other three.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/10/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Worcester
  • 3.45 Fontwell
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.28 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted Charlie Appleby's record at HQ over the last 5 years and he runs a trio there on Wednesday...

...of which one runs in one of our free races, so let's have a closer look at Mountain Song and the 4.10 Newmarket in general. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat race over a straight mile on soft ground...

Karmology is our sole LTO winner and she's unbeaten in her two starts so far. Zouzanna (a winner in two of her last five), Orzo (won on debut), Prisha (won two starts ago) and Bint Al Daar ( a win and three places from her last five) were all in the frame on their last outings; Rocha Do Leao is the only one yet to win.

Many of these are short on handicap experience and this is just a second effort for both Rocha Do Leao and Prisha, whilst it's handicap debut day for Orzo and hat-trick seeking Karmology. Just two of this field, Morning Poem and Orzo are older than 3 yrs old, so they're technically 3lbs worse off at the weights and the former is now blinkered for the first time, but she does drop down a class here.

She's the only class dropper, as Rocha Do Leao, Prisha and Bint Al Daar all step up a level, whilst Karmology and Orzo are both up two classes. The latter is one of just two (along with Rocha Do Leao) yet to win over a mile. We've no previous course winners, but the field haven't been here that often. Most of them have had an outing in the last month or so and Prisha raced just over seven weeks ago, but featured runner Mountain Song has been off the track for nearly fifteen weeks and Orzo might well beed the run after a 28-week break.

Past form under today's conditions is brought to you by Instant Expert, as usual...

That was always going to look a little sparse with nine runners sharing just fifty-four previous outings, but it's good to see that Choisya has a Class 3 Flat win and she gets the trip. She is, however, 6lbs above her last winning mark and Morning Poem is 7lbs above here. No real causes for alarm here, but Bint Al Daar's record over the trip isn't the best, but the graphic below suggests that she's a regular placer...

...and aside from not having raced in this grade, her place credentials are the best on offer as her Flat form reads 3361322. She did win over a mile here on the July course in August, but is now 8lbs higher that that win, which is probably why she's not winning! Her soft ground form might well be the key here, though. She'll run from stall 3 of 9 here and over a straight mile, you wouldn't expect much of a draw bias, but previous similar races seem to have favoured those drawn higher...

...but I still suspect that pace will be the key here and those races above have been won by a bigger percentage of front-runners/leaders than any other running style...

...although horses racing in mid-division seem to come strong late on to make the frame. This apparent bias towards those willing to take it on early looks like good news for three or four of this field based on recent outings...

If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...

...with the ideal scenario being the high-drawn leader. Choisya and Karmology look like being the front runners and although stalls 5 and 6 aren't exactly high, the latter is only one berth away from the optimum combination.

Summary

I'll be honest and admit that I'm still a little sceptical about draw bias on a straight track and I'll virtually always veer towards pace as my helper in these situations and as the graphic above shows, there are four best suited by the pace here; Karmology, Choisya, Mountain Song and Orzo and they occupy stalls 4 to 7, so at least none are exactly drawn low.

It's these four that I want as my shortlist, even if Bint Al Daar's place record is excellent. I don't fancy her to win here and at 7/1 I can't back her E/W, although I would be tempted if she drifts.

As for the winner here, Karmology is the horse in form and whilst it's easy to just back the 7/2 fav, I do think she'll go on to win this. the others in that trio are priced at 6/1, 11/2 and 6/1, so that shows how tight this might be and I won't be backing any of them E/W. Again, like Bint Al Daar, I want at least 8's to get involved.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 28/09/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.40 Bellewstown
  • 2.10 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Clonmel
  • 4.30 Pontefract

The three free UK races above are a Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, a 4-runner affair and a Nursery respectively and none of those appeal to me at all, so with feature of the day in mind, I'm looking elsewhere and I've spotted something that piqued my interest.

The 7yr old mare Gale Force Maya was withdrawn from a race I covered last week, but she's set to re-appear in the 3.00 Newmarket on Thursday a race she won in 2021 and Instant Expert suggests she'll have favourable conditions (more on this shortly, of course!) again.

The race itself, is an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground that will be good in places due to the showers forecast...

Frankness is our sole LTO winner, but Al Simmo was a one-length runner-up behind her that day and Minnetonka also finished second on her last run. All bar featured horse Gale Force Maya, Sweet Harmony and Ivory Madonna have won at least once in their last seven outings, but this trio is winless in 7, 9 and 9 days respectively, the latter still being a maiden after 9 efforts.

In a bid to break her cold spell, Gale Force Maya will wear blinkers for the first time, whilst Kinta and Ivory Madonna will have their first outings in a hood and a visor respectively. The latter steps up one class here, as do River Pride and Alcazan, whilst Urban Decay is up two levels. Sweet Harmony, however, steps down to Class 2 after running in a Listed race at Ayr last week.

At 6 days rest, she's turned back out the quickest, although all the field bar Gale Force Maya (33 days off) have raced in the last three weeks. The latter's success in this race two years ago makes her the only previous course (and CD) winner, but all of her rivals except River Pride, Ivory Madonna and Urban Decay have scored over today's trip, as shown by Instant Expert...

Gale Force Maya is far more experienced under these conditions, but has a good set of results behind her and at 7lbs lower than her last winning mark, could well be dangerously weighted here. The only cause for concern from that data above is Alcazan's 1 from 9 on the going, but she has at least made the frame in two of the eight defeats, putting a slightly better perspective on her place stats...

...which again point to a big run from Gale Force Maya. Al Simmo's place percentages are even better than GFM's, though and if she's likely to do well, then we also need to add Frankness into the mix, as she beat Al Simmo last time out, but she is 3lbs worse off here. This trio are drawn pretty close together in stalls 4, 6 and 7 and our draw analyser suggests that Al Simmo (in #4) might have a bit of an advantage over the other pair...

...and this will be of interest to followers of River Pride, who has the rail and a decent set of Instant Expert place stats, but he'll have to be away sharper than he has in his last two outings...

...because those races I've used for the draw analysis have favoured those setting the pace...

...meaning that ideally we'd be on one drawn relatively low with a penchant for early speed...

...and with our race's heat map looking like this...

...some clearly make more appeal than others.

Summary

For me, based on the data above, it's Al Simmo for me at 5/1. She's in good nick and only lost narrowly last time out. She scored well on Instant Expert and seems to have the best pace/draw make-up of the field.

If Al Simmo is my pick, then Frankness won't be too far away based on their match three weeks ago. Gale Force Maya was the pick on Instant Expert, has won this race before and looks dangerously weighted, whilst Executive Decision has three wins and a runner-up finish from her last six efforts over a similar trip, so she can't be discounted either.

Al Simmo and this trio should contain the first three home and the challenging trio are currently 7/2, 7/1 and 7/1 respectively, so I wouldn't be suggesting Frankness as an E/W option.



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Racing Insights, Friday 18/08/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one Irish 'possible'...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Newbury
  • 3.45 Newbury
  • 4.45 Epsom
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 4.55 Newbury
  • 6.43 Tramore

...from which there's not much to excite me, so I'm going to foocus on the day's highest rated handicap race, the 8.05 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

The form horse would appear to be bottom-weight Sudden Ambush who won last time out and is two from three and three from six. As a 3yr old, he's getting a 6lbs weight allowance here as are Finn's Charm and Lose Your Wad.

Bear Force One is two from four, but his recent results look binary (1010) and Finn's Charm, Arqoob, Repertoire & Lose Your Wad have all won at least one of their last five. The entire field have won at least once over this trip, but only Bear Force One has won here at Newmarket, having scored over course and distance way back in July 2020.

LTO winner Sudden Ambush wears a tongue tie for the first time here and is up one class, as is Azano, whilst Repertoire is up two classes despite finishing 8th of 9 at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Arqoob have raced in the last eight weeks or so, but he's been off for 111 days, during which time he has moved from Lucy Wadham's yard and now debuts for William Jarvis.

As well as possibly needing a run, Arqoob is going to have to run better on good ground than he has previously, because Instant Expert highlights the going as one of his weaknesses...

Azano is another with a low win percentage on good ground and he looks very weak right across the board, which isn't too surprising for a horse with just 3 wins from 32 outings. Intellogent and to a lesser extent Lose Your Wad also look pretty weak under these conditions. Sudden Ambush looks decent albeit off a small sample size, whilst Bear Force One looks consistent if unspectacular from a win perspective and he also has decent place stats too...

...where Azano remains weak on class/distance. Bopedro, Bear Force One and Sudden Ambush seem the ones to focus on from Instant Expert and they're all drawn fairly close together in 3, 4 and 6 with Azano the filling in the sandwich in that central cluster that seems to have avoided the lower stalls that our Draw Analyser suggests is a poor place to run from...

...but I'm not entirely convinced by that set of figures, but I wasn't surprised to see that the Pace Analyser show that those races were won by horses keen to get on with things...

...generating the following pace/draw heat map...

...where the mid-drawn hold-up horses aside, the greens are where you'd expect them to be based on the above data, but do we have a mid/high drawn leader in our pack?

This suggests that the pace will come from stalls 3 to 7 with Azano leading the charge, as he has done in ten of his last eleven races. That said, he hasn't really looked like winning any of them and I don't expect that to change here. Finn's Charm looks like the next cab off the rank, but was last of four and 25th of 29 either side of a runner-up finish in the German 2000 Guineas in May and was then beaten by almost 20 lengths last time out, so it's probably not going to be his day either.

My feeling here is that Azano and Finns Charm will tow Sudden Ambush and Bear Force One into the race and that this latter pair will end up being the ones to beat.

Summary

Sudden Ambush and Bear Force One now look the ones to be with here and the early (3.10pm friday) market has them at a best-priced 10/3 fav and 7/1 respectively with Hills and I think that's probably the right way round, although there might not be much in it and the latter might well be the value play here, especially if he drifts any and we can go E/W.

As for one for the frame, I can't put Azano, Finn's Charm or Intellogent forward based on the above. Repertoire and Bopedro look to have too much to do from the back, whilst Lose Your Wad is out of sorts and poorly drawn.  This, almost by default, puts Arqoob in the spotlight and if he gets the 'new trainer bounce' that many runners do get, he's only 3lbs higher than his last win and was in good form over hurdles in the winter. And at 17/2 or bigger later, he mightn't be a bad E/W pick here if the return to Team Jarvis works.



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Racing Insights, Friday 11/08/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded an interesting pair of qualifiers for this Friday...

...whilst I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Tipperary
  • 5.10 Thirsk
  • 5.40 Haydock
  • 6.15 Haydock
  • 7.15 Wexford

...and I think I'll have a look at Equiano Springs from the H4C) report in the 8.20 Newmarket. He has won 4 of 6 races over 6f on the Rowley course and is 2 from 2 over this course and distance which is a straight 6f on the July course. This Class 4 race has eleven runners aged 3 and over and they'll be racing on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this could be a shootout between the oldest runner, top weight and featured horse Equiano Springs and the bottom weight 3yo filly Lady Dreamer, but let's see.

Golden Duke and Equiano Springs both won last time out with the latter scoring here over track and trip at this class. Champagne Sarah is 112 in her last three and all bar Rathbone, Tolstoy and Dashing Dick have won at least one of their four outings, but this trio have lost their last 13, 18 and 16 races respectively and that alone is enough for me to say no, thank you!

Of the eight that remain, Prospering and fast-finisher Distinguished Lady both drop down a class for a race that will be the latter's debut for Darryll Holland, having left Alice Haynes' yard in the last month. LTO winner Golden Duke goes the other way and steps up from Class 5.

Ice Cool Harry makes just a second handicap appearance, as does Lady Dreamer and as 3 yr olds they receive a useful 4lbs weight allowance, as do Distinguished Lady, Champagne Sarah (first-time cheekpieces here) and Prospering.

The entire field have raced in the last six weeks already, but all eight under consideration have been rested for at least a fortnight. Equiano Springs is 2 from 2 over 6f on the July course and he's the only previous course winner, but all of his rivals bar Flying Secret have at least one win over today's trip.

Equiano Springs, as you'd expect, dominates Instant Expert...

...but there are some good shout on place form from the likes of Distinguished Lady, Golden Duke and Lady Dreamer...

...and at this stage, I'd expect them to be the biggest danger to the top weight runner, Equiano Springs, whose berthing in stall 2 looks quite favourable, according to our Draw Analyser...

...although there's not a huge deal in it and it's likely to be the pace approach that settles this one...

...with the pace stats and the pace/draw heatmap suggesting that if Equiano is up with the pace, he stands a great chance here yet again...

...so if he's averaging around 3.00 or even better, then he's surely the one to beat...

Summary

Featured horse Equiano Springs has to be the one to beat here and having gone through the analysis above, the only surprise to me is that he can be backed at 4/1. The tissues range from 7/2 to 9/2, so 4's is about right, although I see him as a 3/1 or even shorter bet, so I'm on.

Lady Dreamer is 6/1 second favourite and she's probably right to be there, but I think Champagne Sarah is very interesting at an eachway-backable 8/1. The pace might do away with Distinguished Lady's chances, but if the race falls apart then her 14/1 odds might begin to look very big indeed.

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 29/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.30 Gowran Park
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 3.02 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 7.15 Salisbury
  • 8.30 Windsor

I do like to try and 'marry up' our free feature with the daily race list, but the 3.00 Ascot featuring Star of Orion from the TJC Report is a 26-runner affair and I just don't get involved in such races, so I'm turning my attentions to the 4.10 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to soft ground...

Of the ten, only Coco Bear comes here after win and he has actually won his last three, but hasn't been seen for eleven weeks, whilst all his rivals have raced in the past four weeks. Bernardo O'Reilly was in action on Thursday of this week, whilst Chairmanoftheboard ran as recently as last Friday, when a runner-up at a higher grade, making him the only runner, other than Coco Bear, to be placed last time around.

Chairmanoftheboard isn't the only one dropping in from Class 2, though, as the other two runners, Silver Samurai and Hierarchy, from the top three in the weights both make the same step down. Three (Tiger Crusade, Spring Bloom & bottom weight Sir Oliver) ran at this level last time out, but Bernardo O'Reilly, Justcallmepete, Priscilla's Wish and the returning Coco Bear all step up from Class 4.

Spring Bloom is the only one yet to win at this trip, but only Chairmanoftheboard has won here at Newmarket, courtesy of a course and distance success just over three years ago and he has ditched his usual cheekpieces here but wears a visor for only the second time and the first since May 2019 some 31 races ago!

Instant Expert suggests that good to soft ground might not be the ideal metier for him from a win perspective, but he wouldn't want it any quicker than this and the same report shows how poor Spring Bloom's record is at this trip...

Spring Bloom has had thirteen attempts at winning over 6f on turf, which isn't very good at all, but he does have a 64% place strike rate on the Flat over his career and this is reflected in the place stats below...

Chairmanoftheboard's record at Class 3 is a little surprising, as he has made the frame in 8 of 17 runs at Class 2, so he's certainly not out of his depth here and aside from Bernardo O'Reilly not seeming to run well here, there aren't too many grounds for concern about those place records above.

Somewhat surprisingly, there does seem to be a bit of a bias towards those drawn lowest in previous similar contests...

...but over a straight 6f on what should be one of the best tracks in the country, I still think that any advantage wouldn't be that pronounced and that we should read more into how those races above have been won and our pace analyser says that half of those who lead go on to make the frame and that 1 in 5 leaders win with the general advice being to race as far forward as you can...

...which based on recent outings would tend to put the likes of Silver Samurai and Bernardo O'Reilly at a disadvantage...

...but Justcallmepete could relish the opportunity of a potential soft lead from a relatively low draw.

Summary

For me, Chairmanoftheboard and Coco Bear are the best two horses in the race with me preferring the former. He ran well last time out and now drops in class, whilst the latter is up in class and hasn't raced for eleven weeks, although he did win his last three races, all on soft ground. He actually won three starts ago after a six-month lay-off, so this recent break might not make any difference, but up in class mon a career-high mark might just stop Coco Bear from beating Chairmanoftheboard.

As for a placer or E/W bet, Spring Bloom caught the eye on Instant Expert but he does blow hot and cold, whilst front-runner Justcallmepete might prove hard to catch in a race with no other real pace.

No odds on this one at 3.30pm Friday, so I'll have to revisit this later.

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 14/07/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just two qualifiers for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 3.50 York
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 5.35 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Chepstow

...and whilst the field is a little larger than I'm normally comfortable with, it makes sense to tie the daily feature in with the free races, so we're going to have a look at Final Watch and the 4.45 Newmarket, a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

FORM : Amber Island won last time out, as did Under The Twilight, whilst Final Watch, Razeyna and Waiting All Night all had top 3 finishes. Street Kid, Maxi Boy, Persuasion and Waiting All Night have failed to win any of their last 8, 12, 17 and 11 races respectively.

CLASS : Tiger Crusade and Street Kid both drop down a class, but Amber Island, Maxi Boy, Love de Vega (on yard debut here) and Waiting All Night are all up a level, whilst Under The Twilight is up two classes after his LTO win.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORD : All bar Maxi Boy and Waiting All Night have won over 7f and we've two course winners in the shape of Final Watch and Love de Vega who have both scored over course and distance.

LAST RAN : Love de Vega might well be in need of a run after nearly nine months off the track, whilst all his rivals have been out in the last two months. Waiting All Night ran as recently as last Friday!

Our two LTO winners are the only females in the races and we've a pair of 3 yr olds, Harry Magnus & Waiting All Night, at the foot of the weights thanks partly to their 8lbs weight for age allowance.

Instant Expert identifies nine past good to firm winners and seven who scored at least once at Class 3 on turf. The graphic below also suggests that this trip hasn't been an enjoyable one for the likes of Lyndon B (1 from 12) and Persuasion (2 from 18) and although Final Watch is on the horses for courses list, he has struggled at Class 3, winning just once in seven starts...

Tiger Crusade is now 11lbs higher than his last Flat win, but he did score at Lingfield on the A/W at 4lbs higher than today, just three starts ago, but Under The twilight really is 12lbs higher than when she won almost four weeks ago! Persuasion is the one dropping down the weights, but has run well in defeat off marks of 86-89 in recent outings.

As you're probably aware, I'm not always sure about the effects of the draw over a straight race and on the face of past similar contests...

...you'd say that the lower you were drawn the better, but the PRB3 stats say that the centre of the stalls is where you want to be...

...whilst I can't help but feel that the LOW / MID /HIGH stats are a bit skewed by an unusually large number of winners from stall 1...

...so I'll park the draw for now and file it as unresolved today, but what I am pretty sure about is that you don't want to be backing hold-up horses here in a competitive big-field contest on quick ground...

...and if you can identify a front-runner, you could be quids in, Thankfully, we can quickly make an assumption as to how the race might progress by looking at the field's last few runs and they look like this...

...which is great news for me, because I liked Mister Bluebird before I started writing the piece! Harry Magnus has that supposedly plum draw in stall 1, but won't get to take advantage of it and he'll have a wall of runners ahead of him. The other 'pace' runner in the field is Love de Vega, but he somewhat lost his way last season and hasn't been seen since last year. And more on pace, this is how they might break out in draw order...

Summary

Mister Bluebird is likely to lead and I much prefer him as my front-runner than the rusty Love de Vega. Mister Bluebird isn't drawn far from the centre, which PRB3 says is the spot to be in and he has gone well in all four starts this season. He might not be an obvious pick as a winner, but with most bookies paying four places (Sky go 5, as ever!), I'd be happy with a 9/1 E/W punt here.

Prior to doing the analysis, I liked Lyndon B and H4C horse Final Watch as possible E/W candidates too, but I fear the pace will kill their chances here, so I'm going to put them in the "every chance but not carrying my money" category. Street Kid, however, might outrun his 18/1 price ticket and make the frame if not ridden too aggressively this time, he's down in class and trip and has a better jockey on board than last time, so he could be involved. Just small stakes, though!



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Racing Insights, Thursday 13/07/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.45 Doncaster
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 5.20 Newmarket
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 7.50 Newbury

...from which the best on paper is arguably the first on the list, but only four are set to contest the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes, so I'll take a look at the last on that same card, the 5.20 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to firm ground...

This has the feel of a pretty open contest and I can already make a case for four or five of them, but only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out and Greatgadian, Darkness and Soar Above have no wins in their last six (12, 15 and 9 actually!) outings.

I'm going to be fairly ruthless at this point and discard all three as they are 1 from 15, 0 from 15 and 1 from 13 on the Flat and I just know that I couldn't be tempted to back them.

Of my remaining seven runners, all are moving in class to run a Class 3 today. Titian, Good Karma and Bodorgan all drop in from Class 2, whilst Sirona's last three (of a 4-race career!) have all been in Listed company. The other three runners (United Front, Glenfinnan and Bling On The Music) were all in Class 4 action when last seen, which in Glenfinnan's case was ten months ago and that might be an issue. Titian has been off for ten weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to seven weeks.

Glenfinnan is hooded for the first time and actually makes a handicap debut here, as does Sirona and it's Good Karma's second attempt in handicap company. We have four three year olds in the field (Sirona, the sole filly in the race, Good Karma, Glenfinnan & Bodorgan) and they will receive a very handy 9lb weight allowance for their age, which should make them very competitive, even if they lack a little experience.

Instant Expert says that only two of the remaining seven runners have won on good to form ground and that only one has won a Class 3 flat race, mind you only three have tried! Bodorgan is our sole course winner, whilst only Glenfinnan has scored over a mile on turf...

Bling On The Music may have own on good to firm, but a 1 in 7 record isn't great, nor is his 0 from 5 at the trip, although United front has gone one race more on that score. The absence of green above suggests we might (or might not!) learn more from the place stats. There's only one way to find out!

Sirona is pretty much untested in these conditions, but both Titian and United Front have gone well at this grade previously. The latter has also shown a liking for good to firm ground. Don't get me wrong a win and two places from five efforts isn't much to crow about, but his Flat record on other going is just 0 wins and 2 places from 11 starts, so good to firm might well be his thing and both he and Titian seem to 'get' the trip.

Those two are drawn pretty wide with only Glenfinnan and top weight Greatgadian outside of them, but I doubt that the draw is going to make or break a runners' chances here over a straight mile and that's how it has been in the past here...

...whereas the pace profile of those races tells a different story and the emphasis has been on taking or getting close to the lead...

...which isn't great news for Bling On The Music or Good Karma, based on their last two or three efforts...

...so much so that I'm ready to discard that pair too, giving me just five to focus on.

Summary

3pm : I like Glenfinnan and the way he won his maiden last September, but he's up in class and hasn't raced since. That said, he is likely to make the running here and if allowed a soft lead, he could well run away with this one, as he did at Yarmouth. He's hardly thrown in off a mark of 91 and I'd be wary of backing him at that weight, but I suspect the 9lb allowance will be the key here and I'd say he's the one to beat.

I don't know enough about Sirona, other than that she lacks relevant experience under these conditions and has been well beaten in her last three outings. Both Titian and United Front scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and both look well set to play a major part here again, if only because the rest of the field might not be good enough, whilst Bodorgan receives weight all round and wasn't beaten by far in two recent runs at a higher grade.

I won't get involved with Sirona, until I know a bit more about her, but any of Titian, United Front and/or Bodorgan could chase Glenfinnan home and make the frame.

5.30pm odds check : The market goes 9/2 Glenfinnan & Bodorgan, 7/1 Titian and 20/1 United Front! So, I'd back Glenfinnan and take an E/W punt on both Titian and United Front. Skybet are paying four places here and still offer 14's about United Front and that might well be a nice bet.



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Racing Insights, Friday 30/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded a couple of qualifiers...

...and this report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 6.05 Curragh
  • 7.00 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Newcastle
  • 7.25 Chester
  • 7.50 Curragh

...and of the four 'free' UK races and the two on my H4C list, the highest-rated is the 8.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (+25yds for rails) on ground that is currently good to soft...

The early (3.30pm) show from the bookies suggested a three horse race between Peace Man (2/1 fav), Like A Tiger (4/1) and First Sight (also 4/1) with no other runner shorter than 17/2. The bookies may well be right, but there's also the chance of an E/W bet from the challengers, so let's dive in...

Peace Man and First Sight both come here on a hat-trick, so at least one winning run will end here. None of the others managed to win last time out, but all bar Cap Francais have won won at least one of their last five runs.

Plenty of these are class movers today with only four (Gloucestershire, hat-trick seeking Peace Man, Queen of the Skies and bottom weight The Parent) having raced at Class 3 last time around. Of the other eight, three (Turntable, Encourageable & Cap Francais) drop down from Class 2, whilst Like A Tiger and Regal Empire were both last seen in Listed company. Two then step up in class here; Inigo Jones and hat-trick seeker First Sight, who move from Class 4 and 5 respectively.

Not only is First Sight up two classes here, this will be his turf debut after winning two from three on the A/W and this is his handicap debut. It's a second handicap run for Queen of the Skies and Like A Tiger, whilst Inigo Jones runs for Alice Haynes for the first time since leaving Jamie Osborne. Cap Francais aims to get off the cold list by wearing first time cheekpieces.

First Sight returns from 22 weeks off the track and both Gloucestershire and Inigo Jones also come off 100+ day breaks, but the rest of the field have been seen in the last eight weeks; The Parent raced as recently as the 17th of this month.

Turntable is the only previous course winner, having scored over a mile here back in July 2020, but has won over 1m, 1m1f and today's 1m2f trip on the Rowley course! Peace Man, Queen of the Skies, Inigo Jones, Like A Tiger and First Sight have all also won over a similar trip before now.

We have four three year olds in the race here and they're the four lowest weights (ie last four on the card, thanks to a very useful 12lbs weight for age allowance which moves Like A Tiger from 1lb shy of top weight all the way down to 8th in the weights, which could be very handy for him, First Sight, Regal Empire and The Parent.

It is, of course, First Sight's turf debut, so he has no stats to show on the following Instant Expert graphic, which also highlights three previous winners on good to soft ground and five Class 3 winners as well as the course/distance victors mentioned earlier...

There's not actually that much data to work from here and First Sight's lack of Flat activity is probably no worse than having tried and failed. He runs for the in-form (as always!) Charlie Appleby who has a great record here at HQ, so there's no doubt that the horse will have been well prepped. I'm not taking much from that graphic above, other than making a note of Cap Francais' poor record at the trip, but I will just have a quick look at place stats before moving on to the draw...

Cap Francais hasn't been that unlucky over the trip either and The Parent looks better suited at class 4, where he finished 313, as opposed to his three runs ending 463 at this level (3rd of 7 LTO). Turntable has fared better over 1m and 1m1f, but his record here at Newmarket is excellent and he really gets the good to soft ground. He's drawn quite high in 8 of the 11 stalls and this track/trip has favoured those drawn little lower in the past...

You'll notice that I've had to tweak a criteria a little to give myself some data to work with, but the stall by stall numbers seem to back up the graphic above...

...but whilst you'd want stalls 1 to 5 (good for the two jt 2nd favs), there's not a huge bias at play here, especially on the place stats and as is often the case in races beyond a mile the pace of the contest becomes more of a key factor and those races above have favoured those setting the fractions...

...which, based on the field's recent efforts, would appear to be more advantageous to Peace Man that for example Cap Francais...

Summary

Sadly I concur with the bookies and Peace Man is the one to beat here. he ticks the box on form, won at this grade LTO, gets the trip and is likely to lead. Stall 9 isn't ideal, but if you're good enough, you're good enough. He was still 2/1 with Hills at 4.40pm, when I checked back and that was the Oddschecker tissue price, so I suppose that's fair.

The two 4/1 shots Like A Tiger and First Sight will need their 12lb weight allowance to stay competitive here, as I'm not sure they're as good as the fav and one or both might well make the frame. I'm not sure they would without the allowance and if one/both falter, I'd probably side with bottom weight and Frankel-offspring The Parent to take advantage as my E/W possible at 17/2. Turntable would need to up his game here, but that's not beyond the realms of possibility and for those brave enough to back him, 16/1 could be a great price, especially with some firms paying four places.

I apologise for the predictable outcome, but sometimes you have to agree with the bookies!

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 29/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.00 Newmarket
  • 2.10 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newmarket

...from which, the 'best' looks like the 4.20 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these won last time out, but Urban Sprawl was an excellent 3rd of 29 off this mark in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last week and also won three starts ago, both at a higher grade than this. Elsewhere wins are sparse, but Final Watch won five races ago whilst Chola Empire & Dancinginthewoods both won six back.

Urban Sprawl's excellent showing at Ascot was at a class higher than today and he now drops down, as does Final Watch from a run here at HQ on the Rowley when last home of eight. The bottom two on the card, G'daay and Dancinginthewoods, both step up a class, despite failing to make the frame at Class 4 LTO.

The latter of those, Dancinginthewoods, has been off the track the longest at 112 days and Final Watch's last run was eight weeks ago, but the other half dozen have all raced in the last three weeks with Urban Sprawl rested for just a week, of course. He runs off the same mark here and as the sole three year old in this field, gets a very handy 9lb weight allowance if that Ascot display wasn't impressive enough!

All eight have already won over this trip with both Mitrosonfire and Final Watch having scored over course and distance, whilst Dancinginthewoods is a 6f winner over the July course, but according to Instant Expert, his turf record at Class 3 and 7f leave quite a bit to be desired...

...but he is 6lbs lower than his last win. Able Kane has also toiled in this grade and G'daay is yet to set the world alight on turf over 7f, but Mitrosonfire has some respectable numbers to support his case and he probably catches the eye most here, whilst the place stats suggest that Final Watch might go well off the same mark as his last win...

Only Chola Empire has failed to register so far, but having made the frame 7 times from 8 A/W starts over this trip (inc 2 wins), I wouldn't necessarily rule him out just yet, so I approach the draw stats with a full complement of eight runners to choose from and our Draw Analyser (and PRB3 stats in particular) say there's very little advantage from any stall...

That's not entirely surprising though, really. A straight track shouldn't really favour any part of the draw. Stall 1 often does better because they have the rail to keep them straight and I'm guessing that those drawn widest (8 of 8 and 9 of 9) don't do as well because they've nothing on the other side of them to stop them straying. They do, however, make the frame as often (if not slightly more) as expected. This lack of any real draw bias thus shifts the emphasis onto running styles/tactics etc aka pace and my guess would be that over a straight 7 on quick ground, you want to be up with the leaders if not actually leading and this theory is amply backed up by the data from our Pace Analyser...

...which heavily favours those racing prominently and/or leading. Leaders don't always hold on to see the winners' enclosure, but over 45% of them make the frame, whilst almost 42% of those prominent runners making the frame go on to win, a very healthy conversion rate.

So, we're not too invested in the draw, but we would like a runner that 'gets on with it' and if we look at the field's most recent outings...

...it's another tick for Urban Sprawl with Mitrosonfire and Able Kane the ones most likely to try and keep him company. Final Watch may well have good place stats on Instant Expert, but he's going to struggle from so far off the pace.

Summary

It has to be Urban Sprawl, doesn't it? A Class 2 winner at Goodwood at the end of May and third in a big field at Royal Ascot last week off this mark, he's in great nick. He has a 9lb weight allowance and is the likely leader here. If he runs anything like he did last week, he could well tear this up. Sadly he's already priced at 5/4 with Bet365 and I'm not usually playing with big enough stakes to make those odds worthwhile, but if you're not averse to shorties, there might still be some value in the price, as he might well go off at odds on.

Of the rest, I'd love Chola Empire to replicate his 7f A/W form onto grass, but a best price of 9/2 gives me nothing to work with for an unproven turf runner. Final Watch could have been an E/W possible, but again 13/2 is too short for a hold-up horse, but I quite like the chances of Mitrosonfire here. He scored well on Instant Expert and probably needed the run at Goodwood last time out, but was only 5.5 lengths off the winner despite being off for six months and at 9/1 here could be worth an E/W play, whilst Able Kane is also interesting at 10's with the tongue tie back on and down below his last winning mark. Statistically, he's well suited to make the frame based on the going, his mark, the field size, the number of days since his last run and it being a straight track.



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