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Sat TV Trends: 1st July 2017

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh -  As always we've got all the key trends & stats to help you narrow down the fields, and hopefully point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Saturday 1st July 2017

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RUK)

2.05 - Betway Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Had between 0 and 2 previous runs that season
12/15 – Didn’t win their previous race
12/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/15 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
9/15 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/15 – Won by the Kremlin House stable
Bateel (8/11) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

2.40 – Betway Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Never raced at the track before
13/15 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
13/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
9/15 – Didn’t win their previous race
9/15 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
7/15 – Came from stall 4 or lower
5/15 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by the Hannon yard
Nations Alexandar (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

3.15 - Betway Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

13/15 – Won over 7f before
13/15 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
13/15 – Had at least 1 run already that season
11/15 – Aged 5 or younger
10/15 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/15 – Came from stall 3 or lower
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
4/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 6 runnings)
Breton Rock (11/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - Betfred ‘Celebrating 50 Years Of Success’ Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

15/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
12/15 – Had won over 6f before
11/15 – Had won between 1-4 times before
10/15 – Rated 90 or less
10/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
9/15 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/15 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/15- Ran at York last time out
2/15 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/15 – Won last time out
Amazour (6/1) won the race 12 months ago
11 of the last 13 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
6 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 10-15

2.25 - Betfred TV Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Had won over 6f before
14/15 – Unplaced last time out
13/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
10/15 – Yet to win a Group race
9/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/15 – Aged 5 or older
7/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/15 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/15 – Won last time out
Markaz (9/2) won the race 12 months ago
Danzeno won the race in 2014 and was third 12 months ago
9 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)

3.00 - Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y ITV

One previous running
Dannyday (7/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Marco Botti has a 25% record at the track with his older horses
Trainer Keith Dalgleish is only 3 from 53 (6%) with his older horses at the track Jockey
Paul Hanagan has a 20% strike-rate riding older horses at the track Jockey
Paul Mulrennan has just a 5% record riding older horses at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves has just a 4% record riding older horses at the track

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.30 – Stobart Rail Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

14/15  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
14/15 – Finished fifth or better last time out
13/15 – Came from stall 14 or lower
13/15 – Aged 6 or younger
11/15 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
11/15 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/15 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/15 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/15 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/15 – Won their previous race
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 9 winners)
3/15 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/15 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 14/1
Note: The 2016 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)

5.20 - Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR  (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

14/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
12/14 – Won by an Irish-based yard
12/14 – Won a Group race before
12/14 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
12/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Failed to win their last race
10/14 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
10/14 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
8/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 11 times in all)
7/14 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/14 – Previous Group 1 winners
2/14 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 4/1

 

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 25th June 2016

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse - running on their AW track for the first time, while the C4 cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - as always Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

tvtrends-300x73


 

 


Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4 and RUK)


2.45 - Tangent Office Furniture Supporting The AHT Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4

14/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had between 0 and 2 previous runs that season
11/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
11/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
9/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Won by the Kremlin House stable
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

3.20 - Cambridge Magazine Supporting The AHT Empress Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

14/14 – Never raced at the track before
13/14 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
12/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
8/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/14 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
7/14 – Came from stall 4 or lower
5/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by the Hannon yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

3.55 - John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4

12/14 – Won over 7f before
12/14 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
12/14 – Had at least 1 run already that season
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/14 – Came from stall 3 or lower
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
4/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 5 runnings)
3/14 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
Markaz won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2


Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)


2.30 - Betfred Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f CH4

14/14 – Had won over 6f before
13/14 – Unplaced last time out
12/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Yet to win a Group race
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/14 – Aged 5 or older
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/14 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/14 – Won last time out
Danzeno won the race in 2014 and was third 12 months ago
8 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just won winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings (and only 3 horses placed)

Note: Used to be run on the turf

3.05 - Betfred TV Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

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14/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Had won over 6f before
10/14 – Rated 90 or less
10/14 – Had won between 1-4 times before
9/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
8/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/14 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/14- Ran at York last time out
2/14 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/14 – Won last time out
11 of the last 12 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
6 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 10-15

Note: Used to be run on the turf

3.40 - Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y CH4

No previous runnings


4.15 – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y CH4


Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Northumberland Plate Trends

13/14  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
13/14 – Finished fifth or better last time out
12/14 – Came from stall 14 or lower
12/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
11/14 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/14 – Carried 8-12 or less
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/14 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/14 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 8 years)
3/14 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 14/1

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 10 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Eight winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

Note: Used to be run on the turf


Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)


5.20 - Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f


Recent Irish Derby Winners

2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

13/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
11/13 – Won by an Irish-based yard
11/13 – Won a Group race before
11/13 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Failed to win their last race
9/13 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
9/13 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
8/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 11 times in all)
6/13 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (2 winners, Australia & Camelot)
3/13 – Previous Group 1 winners
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/13 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 4/1

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Coiste Bodhar - Will certainly want the ground to ease further as I feel he is best suited to good-to-soft, or softer. Didn't handle the track at Newcastle and it wasn't soft enough at Nottingham when he was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Well at home and if the ground is on the slow side he would have a decent e/w claim."
Scott Dixon
14/06/16 1st 16/1

"Sarabi - Ran a solid race over 6f last time out after a break. Looks like she will appreciate the step back down to 5f and the ground is of no concern today. Currently looks good each-way value."
Scott Dixon
14/06/16 2nd 20/1

 

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Sat TV Trends: 27th June 2015

The Northumberland Plate is the big race at Newcastle, while the C4 cameras are also at Newmarket, plus, don’t forget, it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh – We’ve got all the TV races covered….

Find those TV winners!

Newmarket (C4 and RUK)

2.15 - Marshall Maserati Supporting The AHT Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4

13/13 – Won over at least 1m2f before
12/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/13 – Had between 0 and 2 previous runs that season
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
8/13 – Won a Listed (or better) class race before
8/13 – Won over 1m4f before
7/13 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/13 – Favourites (2 joint)
2/13 – Won by the Kremlin House stable
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

2.50 - Betfair Supporting The Animal Health Trust Empress Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

13/13 – Never raced at the track previously
12/13 – Won over either 5 or 6f previously
11/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
8/13 – Didn’t win last time out
8/13 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
7/13 – Came from stall 4 or lower
5/13 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/13 – Favourites
4/13 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
3/13 – Trained by the Hannon yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

3.25 - John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4

12/13 – Won over 7f previously
12/13 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
11/13 – Had at least 1 run already that season
10/13 – Aged 5 or younger
9/13 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
7/13 – From stall 3 or lower
7/13 – Favourites Unplaced
4/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/13 – Favourites
3/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 4 runnings)
3/13 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

Newcastle (ATR/C4)

2.00 - Betfred Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f CH4

13/13 – Won over 6f previously
12/13 – Unplaced in their last race
12/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Yet to win a Group race
10/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Won at least 4 times before
8/13 – Aged 5 or older
8/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/13 – Raced at Newcastle previously
5/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/13 – Won their last race
Danzeno won the race 12 months ago
8 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just won winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings (and only 2 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

2.35 - Betfred Half Time In-Play Boosts Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

13/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Had won over 6f previously
10/13 – Rated 90 or less
9/13 – Won between 1-4 times previously
9/13 – Unplaced last time out
9/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Raced within the last 2 weeks
7/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/13 – Aged 4 years-old
7/13 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/13 – Raced Newcastle previously
3/13 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/13-  Raced at York last time out
2/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Trained by Tim Easterby
1/13 – Won their last race
10 of the last 11 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
6 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 10-15
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 9.5/1

3.10 - Betfred Membership "Play Your Way" Handicap Cl2 7f CH4

13/13 – Won over 7f or a mile previously
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Won over 7f previously
10/13 – Rated between 80-90
10/13 – Ran within the last 2 weeks
10/13 – Won between 2-5 times previously
9/13 – Raced at Newcastle previously (2 won)
9/13 – Aged 5 or younger
8/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
7/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
5/13 – Favourites
5/13 – Price 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/13 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/13 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
Five of the last 11 horses from stall 11 have been placed
9 of the last 10 winners came from either stalls 1-5 or 10-12
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 6/1

3.45 – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y CH4

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

12/13  - Won over at least 1m4f previously on the flat
12/13 – Placed fifth or better last time out
11/13 – Winners from stall 14 or lower
11/13 – Aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
10/13 – Won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
10/13 – Placed in the top three in their previous race
8/13 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
7/13 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/13 – Won by a National Hunt yard
3/13 – Raced at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 7 years)
3/13 – Won on the flat at Newcastle previously
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 14/1

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last nine winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Eight winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985
Trainer Paul Cole had the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

Curragh (ATR)

6.30 - Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR  (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

12/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Won 3 or more times
11/12 – Won by an Irish-based yard
11/12 – Won a Group race previously
10/12 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
10/12 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
8/12 – Never raced at the Curragh previously
8/12 – Raced in the Epsom Derby last time out
8/12 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 11 times in all)
5/12 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (2 winners, Australia & Camelot)
3/12 – Previous Group 1 winners
2/12 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/12 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 12 renewals is 9/2

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Akavit: Ran a nice race last time, despite losing his winning sequence. Still think he's capable off this mark - but is there something lurking with a better handicap mark?"
Ed de Giles

22/06/15 1st 10/1

"Layline: Dropped in grade so every chance of going well. Trip, mark and AW all fine, just hoping for a bit of a change of luck as not a lot going right at the moment!"
Gay Kelleway

22/06/15 1st 8/1

"El Fenix: Hopefully the drop in trip might bring out some improvement in him which will give him a reasonable chance."
Gary Moore

19/06/15 1st 4/1

"Goolagong Girl: Won well last time - up in the ratings, but the horse is in great shape and we come here hopeful of another win."
Jane Chapple-Hyam

19/06/15 1st 8/1

"Injun Sands: Has done really well since the win at Lingfield and the form is very good. Just concerned about a fast track - it seems by the times the surface has firmed up."
Jane Chapple-Hyam

18/06/15 1st 7/2

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Northumberland Plate in 60 Seconds…

Northumberland Plate Trends 2014

Northumberland Plate preview and trends

Northumberland Plate preview

All of the below are since 1997.

17/17 ran between eight and sixty days ago

14/17 winners finished in the top five last time out

14/17 ran over two miles or more last time out

13/17 won or were beaten three lengths or less last time out

11/17 had won at the distance (just 3% of non-two mile winners prevailed - 6 from 196)

Four of the ten horses since 1997 to run in a National Hunt race last time won this (+65 points) and another two were placed!

Those satisfying the main trends are Angel Gabrial and Noble Silk.

Those satisfying the main four (i.e. not the 'won at distance' trend) are Suegioo (won Chester Vase over 2m3f) and Nearly Caught (2nd to Noble Silk over two miles last time)

The National Hunt last time out pair are Buthelezi and Mawaqeet

Although both are potentially sub-optimally drawn, I'm siding with Noble Silk and Suegioo.

Northumberland Plate value picks:

Noble Silk 16/1 Skybet FIVE places

Suegioo 12/1 Skybet FIVE places

Tiny nibbles:

Mawaqeet 33/1 Skybet FIVE places

Buthelezi 40/1 Skybet FIVE places

Click here for the Northumberland Plate card