Tag Archive for: Northumberland Plate trends

Sat TV Trends: 27th June 2026

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The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to York - plus it’s Irish Derby weekend over at the Curragh, with the big race on Sunday (4:35pm) - as always, Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)

1:55 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV

Just one past running
Trainer William Haggas won the race last year
Trainer William Haggas have a 23% SR with their 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 22% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 11-437 (3%) with their runners at York

2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

Just one past running
Trainer Nigel Tinkler won the race last year
Squealer won the race in 2025
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 11-437 (3%) with their runners at York
Trainer Richard Hughes has a 38% SR (6-16) with his 3yolds at York

2:58 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

22/23 – Won over 7f before
20/23 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
20/23 – Had at least 1 run already that season
15/23 – Aged 5 or younger
13/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/23 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
12/23 – Unplaced favourites
11/23 – Came from stall 3 or lower
8/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 15 runnings)
Trainer John Gosden has won the race 5 times
12 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Jockey James Doyle has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Only 2 winning 3 year-olds since 2004 and 3 since 1996
Note: Was run at Newmarket in 2024

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (Sky/ITV)

 

1:40 – Education Network Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV

9/9 – Aged between 3-7 years-old
9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Won between 1-3 times
8/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
7/9 – Carried 9-3 or more
7/9 – Irish bred winners
7/9 – Won over 7f before
6/9 – Aged 4 years-old
5/9 – Rated 91 (3) or 97 (2)
5/9 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/9 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Thirsk (2) last time out
4/9 – From stalls 1 (2) or 9 (2)
2/9 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 6 winners aged 4
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
Jockey James Doyle has won the last 2
Wathnan Racing have won the last 2
Trainer William Haggas has a 40% with his 4+yolds at Newcastle

 

2:10 – Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

23/24 – Had won over 6f before
21/24 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
18/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/24 – Unplaced last time out
16/24 – Yet to win a Group race
15/24 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
15/24 – Placed favourites
15/24 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/24 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/24 – Aged 5 or older
8/24 - Ran at Ascot last time out
8/24 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/24 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/24 – Won last time out
3/24 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 4)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/24 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (2 of the last 3)
15 of the last 23 winners came between stalls 1-5
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 2
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 3 or lower (6 from gates 2 or 3)
Diligent Harry won the race in 2025
Tiber Flow won the race in 2024

2:40 - Jenningsbet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/10 – Ran in the last 2 months
9/10 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
9/10 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
9/10 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
8/10 – Aged 4 (4) or 6 (4) years-old
6/10 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Winners came from stalls 10-19 (inc)
4/10 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
4/10 - Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
Savrola won the race in 2025
Alphonse Le Grande won the race in 2024
The last 10 winners aged 4-6

3:15 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

23/24 - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
23/24 – Finished fifth or better last time out
20/24 – Came from stall 14 or lower
20/24 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
18/24 – Aged 6 or younger
18/24 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
14/24 – Carried 8-12 or less
14/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/24 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
8/24 – Won by a National Hunt yard
7/24 – Won their previous race
6/24 – Winning favourites
5/24 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/24 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 17 winners)
2/24 – Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 16)
2/24 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 7)
2/24 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 11)
1/24 – Won by a previous winner of the race
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle (moved from the turf)
Spirit Mixer won the race in 2025 and was 2nd in 2022
Other Northumberland Plate Facts
Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Six of the last 20 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
6 of the last 11 winners has carried between 9st 1lbs and 9st 9lbs
Since the race was run on the AW (2016, 9 runnings) 8 winners drawn from stalls 9-17
9 of the last 9 winners between stalls 7-17
13 of the last 15 winner from stalls 14 or lower
11 winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 5 of the last 14
The Paul Cole yard trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

3:45 – Jenningsbet Over 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

Just 9 previous runnings

9/9 - Had won over 6f before
9/9 - Won between 2-5 times
8/9 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
8/9 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
7/9 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
7/9- Unplaced last time out
6/9 - Drawn in stalls 9 or higher
6/9 - Placed favourites
6/9 - Rated between 95 and 99 (inc)
5/9 - Had run at the track before
2/9 - Came from stalls10
2/9 - Winning favourites
5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 9-11
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/1
Trainer William Haggas has a 40% SR with his 4+yolds at Newcastle
Trainer Tim Easterby has won 2 of the last 6
Fivethousandandtoone won the race in 2025

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2025 Northumberland Plate Trends

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Run at Newcastle racecourse over 2 miles the Northumberland Plate is one of the richest staying handicap races in the world.

Formerly known as the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ the contest was first run in 1833 and being over 2 miles can often attract plenty of horses trained by National Hunt stables.

We’ve seen 6 winning favourites in the last 18 years.

Here at GeeGeez we take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and statistics to look out for when going through the race– this year run on Saturday 28th June 2025.

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2024 - Onesmoothoperator (12/1)
2023 - Calling The Wind (14/1)
2022 - Trueshan (3/1 fav)
2021 - Nicholas T (33/1)
2020 – Caravan Of Hope (9/2 fav)
2019 – Who Dares Wins (12/1)
2018 - Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 -  Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Northumberland Plate Trends

22/23  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
22/23 – Finished fifth or better last time out
19/23 – Came from stall 14 or lower
19/23 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
18/23 – Aged 6 or younger
17/23 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
13/23 – Carried 8-12 or less
13/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/23 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
8/23 – Won by a National Hunt yard
7/23 – Won their previous race
6/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/23 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 16 winners)
2/23 – Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 15)
2/23 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 6)
2/23 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 10)
1/23 – Won by a previous winner of the race
Since the race was run on the AW (2016) 7/9 - from stalls 10-17
12 of the last 14 winner from stalls 14 or lower
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle (moved from the turf)

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Six of the last 19 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
6 of the last 10 winners have carried between 9st 1lbs and 9st 9lbs.
11 winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 5 of the last 13
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

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Sat TV Trends: 26th June 2021

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The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, to take in three races.

Did you know - 16 of the last 19 Northumberland Plate winners were aged 6 or younger?

Plus, it’s also Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - Here at GeeGeez we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)


2.05 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

17/18 – Never raced at the track before
16/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
14/18 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
11/18 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
10/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/18 – Came from stall 4 or lower
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
7 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

2.40 - Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

9/10 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/10 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/10 - Won 3 or more times
8/10 - Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
7/10 - Placed favourites
7/10 - Rated 100+
4/10 - Winning favourites
4/10 - Had run at the track before
3/10 - Ran at York last time out
3/10 - Trained by David Simcock
2/10 - Ridden by William Buick
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

3.15 – Close Brothers Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

17/19 – Won over 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
16/19 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/19 – Aged 5 or younger
12/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/19 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/19 – Came from stall 3 or lower
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 10 runnings)
2/19 - Trained by Henry Candy (last 2 runnings)
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
Limato won the race in 2019 and 2020
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.45 - williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
4/4 - Had won over 6f before
4/4 - Won between 2-5 times
4/4 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
3/4 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
3/4 - Drawn in stalls 10 or higher
3/4 - Placed favourites
3/4 - Rated between 97 and 99 (inc)
3/4 - Unplaced last time out
3/4 - Had run at the track before
2/4 - Came from stalls 10
0/4 - Winning favourites
Staxton won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 10/1

 


2.20 – William Hill Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Had won over 6f before
17/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Unplaced last time out
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/19 – Yet to win a Group race
11/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/19 – Aged 5 or older
8/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/19 – Had run at Newcastle before
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Won last time out
Judicial (9/1) won the race in 2020
12 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

 

2.55 - William Hill Pick Your Places Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

Five previous runnings
Mondain won the race in 2020
Cosmeli won the race in 2018
5/5 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
5/5 – Ran in the last 2 months
5/5 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
4/5 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
4/5 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/5 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/5 - Winning favourites
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 9/1

 

3.30 – William Hill Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

18/19  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
18/19 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/19 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/19 – Aged 6 or younger
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
15/19 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/19 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 13 winners)
3/19 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 6)
1/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

 

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 15 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 9
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

 

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (Ire)


3.45 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Colts and Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f

 

18/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
16/18 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
14/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Won a Group race before
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/18 – Failed to win their last race
12/18 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
12/18 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
11/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won the race 14 times in total)
7/18 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/18 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
Ryan Moore has NEVER won the Irish Derby
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 6/1

 

 

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