Sat TV Trends: 26th June 2021 geegeez.co.uk

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, to take in three races.

Did you know - 16 of the last 19 Northumberland Plate winners were aged 6 or younger?

Plus, it’s also Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - Here at GeeGeez we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)

2.05 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

17/18 – Never raced at the track before
16/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
14/18 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
11/18 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
10/18 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/18 – Came from stall 4 or lower
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
7 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

2.40 - Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

9/10 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/10 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/10 - Won 3 or more times
8/10 - Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
7/10 - Placed favourites
7/10 - Rated 100+
4/10 - Winning favourites
4/10 - Had run at the track before
3/10 - Ran at York last time out
3/10 - Trained by David Simcock
2/10 - Ridden by William Buick
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

3.15 – Close Brothers Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

17/19 – Won over 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
16/19 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/19 – Aged 5 or younger
12/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/19 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/19 – Came from stall 3 or lower
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 10 runnings)
2/19 - Trained by Henry Candy (last 2 runnings)
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
Limato won the race in 2019 and 2020
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.45 - williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
4/4 - Had won over 6f before
4/4 - Won between 2-5 times
4/4 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
3/4 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
3/4 - Drawn in stalls 10 or higher
3/4 - Placed favourites
3/4 - Rated between 97 and 99 (inc)
3/4 - Unplaced last time out
3/4 - Had run at the track before
2/4 - Came from stalls 10
0/4 - Winning favourites
Staxton won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 10/1

2.20 – William Hill Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Had won over 6f before
17/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Unplaced last time out
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/19 – Yet to win a Group race
11/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/19 – Aged 5 or older
8/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/19 – Had run at Newcastle before
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Won last time out
Judicial (9/1) won the race in 2020
12 of the last 18 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

2.55 - William Hill Pick Your Places Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

Five previous runnings
Mondain won the race in 2020
Cosmeli won the race in 2018
5/5 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
5/5 – Ran in the last 2 months
5/5 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
4/5 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
4/5 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/5 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/5 - Winning favourites
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 9/1

3.30 – William Hill Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

18/19 - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
18/19 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/19 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/19 – Aged 6 or younger
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
15/19 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/19 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 13 winners)
3/19 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 6)
1/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 15 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 9
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (Ire)

3.45 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Colts and Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f

18/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
16/18 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
14/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Won a Group race before
14/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/18 – Failed to win their last race
12/18 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
12/18 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
11/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won the race 14 times in total)
7/18 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
4/18 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
Ryan Moore has NEVER won the Irish Derby
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 6/1

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