Tag Archive for: Pace tab

Racing Insights, Monday 27/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.35 Ludlow
  • 3.05 Kempton

The first is a maiden hurdle, so let's try the 3.05 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m5f on good/good to soft ground...

THELASTHIGHKING finished 211 in his last three runs of the previous season and returned to action here at Kempton five weeks ago with a great run to finish second of seven despite being raised 5lbs and being off for 193 days. He could well strip fitter for the run, but does step up in trip and is up another 5lbs.

BEFORE MIDNIGHT hasn't won any of his eleven races over the last two years since winning by a short head at Ascot on November 2021 and was beaten by 39 lengths as 9th of 11 at Cheltenham last month, but does drop a class here.

GLOIRE D'ATHON has made the frame in 6 of 10 efforts over fences (5 wins) and his results in the 16 months from April '22 read 22111211, but was pulled up at Newbury earlier this month on his return from a 4-month break.

OUR JET looks like the first pick of the two Dan Skelton runners in the field and he was 3rd of 10 at Newbury earlier this month when returning from almost seven months off the track (had a wind op in that time). He was well beaten that day, though, coming home some 32 lengrths behind the winner of a well strung-out field. He now sports cheekpieces for the first time and could be of interest off this mark.

MULLINAREE makes a chase debut here 45 days after contesting a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Chepstow, where he was 5th of 7. Prior to that run, his career had been revitalised by wearing a hood and tongue tie during five successive wins over 2m3½f to 2m5½f on ground ranging from good to heavy, so going and trip shouldn't be his downfall here, but will he take to the bigger obstacles?

AMOOLA GOLD is the second of the Skelton duo and he receives weight all round. He's the sole LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three, albeit both over hurdles wither side of finishing last of six (beaten by 58L) over fences at Haydock in March. His last chase win was a Listed contest at Ascot, but it was over two years ago and his form over fences since then reads 2643847736.

Instant Expert says that all five to have raced over fences have won at least once on good or good to soft ground and four of them have won at Class 3. Only three have been chasing at Kempton before and they're a collective 0 from 4, whilst Gloire D'Athon seems best suited to the trip...

Before Midnight has poor win records at both Class & trip, whilst Amoola Gold has a similar record over the distance. On base stats alone, Gloire D'Athon looks of interest. He normally runs in mid-division or slightly further forward, according to his last four outings and if all six run as they have been doing of late, he's likely to take third rank early doors...

...with chase debutant Mullinaree and Skelton second-stringer Amoola Gola the more likely front-runners. Should Gloire D'Athon want to make the frame or even go on to win, then his prominent running style might just bear fruit if this track/trip's results are anything to go by...

Summary

The Lasthighking is probably the best horse in the race and if he comes on for having had the run and reverts back to front-running like he did two starts ago, he'll be very difficult to beat. He is, however, as low as 13/8 and only as high as 15/8 and there's no guarantees that he won't be held up and he is up another 5lbs here, so whilst he's probably the one to beat, there's no value on the price.

Our Jet could go well if not left with too much to dao, but this isn't really a race I want to bet heavily on and I think for interest, I'll have a small E/W wager on Gloire D'Athon to outrun bet365's 16/1 price ticket. He'd not be an obvious winner, but his suitability for the test says he's too big at 16's.

Racing Insights, Monday 29/05/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.30 Leicester
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.00 Redcar
  • 4.25 Huntingdon
  • 4.30 Ballinrobe

...the best of which looks like being the 4.00 Redcar, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think that it's a fairly tight call between five runners, but let's make out own mind up about a field that has two LTO winners in the shape of City Streak (the form horse here) and Pillar of Hope, whilst of their rivals only Cap Francais, Baryshnikov and bottom weight Highwaygrey are winless in at least five.

War In Heaven and City Streak both step up a class here, but Pillar of Hope and Highwaygrey and up two classes here, which can't be good for the latter on a losing run. Conversely, Oviedo is our sole 3yr old and sole class dropper; he's also on handicap debut here. His opening mark of 97 is probably fair, but the 14lb weight allowance should be more than useful here.

All bar Cap Francais, War In Heaven and Oviedo have already won at this trip, but only Pillar of Hope has a Redcar victory on his CV after winning over course and distance last September.

Eight of the nine runner hve already raced this season (inside 52 days), but it's possible that Kitsune Power might be in need of a run after an eight month break since trailing home last of 28 in the Cambridgeshire.

Elsewhere, according to Instant Expert, six of the field have already scored on good to firm ground and three are former Class 2 winners...

Baryshnikov looks vulnerable on good to firm ground, whilst Cap Francais' best work has been at Classes 3 & 4. Even before we look at place form, I prefer the look of others, especially with Cap's 0 from 6 return at the trip. The returning Kitsune Power is 6lbs higher than his last win and he floundered off this mark last time out.

Now for the place stats...

...which also do little for bottomweight Highwaygrey and I think I'm going to need persuasion on pace and draw to look twice at him, Baryshnikov, Cap Francais or Kitsune Power. Which brings us neatly to the draw and having looked at past similar contests, I'm not convinced that the draw alone could make or break a runner's chances...

.and that it is the following pace data that should define a contest here at Redcar...

Leader win more often (2.5 times the expected) and make the frame more often than the other three running styles. Prominent runners just about achieve par score, but anything further back in the pack is going to struggle. Cue 'feature of the day' the racecard pace tab...

...which suggests the pace in the race is going to come from the inside four stalls, particularly from War In Heaven.

Summary

War In Heaven is sure to try and win this from the front, but he's on a mark that's too high for him, he hasn't raced on turf since last September (10 starts ago) and has yet to win on the Flat and I doubt he's winning here. Next off the rank for pace is likely to be Pillar of Hope, who comes here in good nick and is only up 2lbs for a win last time out. That would normally stand him in good stead, but he did only win by a head and it was down at Class 4. His yard/jockey won this race last year, but they might have to settle for the places here.

Which brings us to City Streak, the form horse who has eight successive top 3 finishes over the last year and three weeks, including two wins from the last five and impressed last time out by managing to win at Chester, not only from stall 8 but also from a poor field position and I have to agree with the market, who have him as the 7/2 favourite to win. He'd be my pick here.

Pillar of Hope (above) has a great chance of making the frame, but 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me and I see challenges coming for him from the likes of Turntable and Oviedo with that weight allowance. The bookies have spotted Oviedo and have him at 4/1, so no E/W bet for me there either, but both Bet365 & 888Sport have Turntable at 11/1 and he might just be the E/W punt here.