Racing Insights, Monday 29/05/23 geegeez.co.uk

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

2.30 Leicester
3.40 Leicester
4.00 Redcar
4.25 Huntingdon
4.30 Ballinrobe

...the best of which looks like being the 4.00 Redcar, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think that it's a fairly tight call between five runners, but let's make out own mind up about a field that has two LTO winners in the shape of City Streak (the form horse here) and Pillar of Hope, whilst of their rivals only Cap Francais, Baryshnikov and bottom weight Highwaygrey are winless in at least five.

War In Heaven and City Streak both step up a class here, but Pillar of Hope and Highwaygrey and up two classes here, which can't be good for the latter on a losing run. Conversely, Oviedo is our sole 3yr old and sole class dropper; he's also on handicap debut here. His opening mark of 97 is probably fair, but the 14lb weight allowance should be more than useful here.

All bar Cap Francais, War In Heaven and Oviedo have already won at this trip, but only Pillar of Hope has a Redcar victory on his CV after winning over course and distance last September.

Eight of the nine runner hve already raced this season (inside 52 days), but it's possible that Kitsune Power might be in need of a run after an eight month break since trailing home last of 28 in the Cambridgeshire.

Elsewhere, according to Instant Expert, six of the field have already scored on good to firm ground and three are former Class 2 winners...

Baryshnikov looks vulnerable on good to firm ground, whilst Cap Francais' best work has been at Classes 3 & 4. Even before we look at place form, I prefer the look of others, especially with Cap's 0 from 6 return at the trip. The returning Kitsune Power is 6lbs higher than his last win and he floundered off this mark last time out.

Now for the place stats...

...which also do little for bottomweight Highwaygrey and I think I'm going to need persuasion on pace and draw to look twice at him, Baryshnikov, Cap Francais or Kitsune Power. Which brings us neatly to the draw and having looked at past similar contests, I'm not convinced that the draw alone could make or break a runner's chances...

.and that it is the following pace data that should define a contest here at Redcar...

Leader win more often (2.5 times the expected) and make the frame more often than the other three running styles. Prominent runners just about achieve par score, but anything further back in the pack is going to struggle. Cue 'feature of the day' the racecard pace tab...

...which suggests the pace in the race is going to come from the inside four stalls, particularly from War In Heaven.

Summary

War In Heaven is sure to try and win this from the front, but he's on a mark that's too high for him, he hasn't raced on turf since last September (10 starts ago) and has yet to win on the Flat and I doubt he's winning here. Next off the rank for pace is likely to be Pillar of Hope, who comes here in good nick and is only up 2lbs for a win last time out. That would normally stand him in good stead, but he did only win by a head and it was down at Class 4. His yard/jockey won this race last year, but they might have to settle for the places here.

Which brings us to City Streak, the form horse who has eight successive top 3 finishes over the last year and three weeks, including two wins from the last five and impressed last time out by managing to win at Chester, not only from stall 8 but also from a poor field position and I have to agree with the market, who have him as the 7/2 favourite to win. He'd be my pick here.

Pillar of Hope (above) has a great chance of making the frame, but 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me and I see challenges coming for him from the likes of Turntable and Oviedo with that weight allowance. The bookies have spotted Oviedo and have him at 4/1, so no E/W bet for me there either, but both Bet365 & 888Sport have Turntable at 11/1 and he might just be the E/W punt here.

Membership Login

Summary

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

You might also like