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Dawson living the dream with Zain Claudette

Ray Dawson hopes Zain Claudette has the ability to provide him with the first Group One success of his career – if not in Saturday’s Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes then at some point in the future.

Trained by Ismail Mohammed, the No Nay Never filly has won three of her four starts, including an Ascot Group Three and last time out when taking the prized scalp of Andrew Balding’s Sandrine in the Lowther Stakes at York.

She is doing her bit to propel both her trainer and jockey into the big time, and Dawson has no doubt she belongs at the highest level.

“Zain Claudette’s form going into the race is unreal, and I certainly wouldn’t swap her. Going into it I’m very excited,” he said.

“I think the Rowley Mile will suit her, and that it won’t bother her at all. She is very balanced, and you wouldn’t even notice her change her legs because she does it so quickly, and the stiff finish there will suit her.

A big smile from Ray Dawson with Zain Claudette
A big smile from Ray Dawson with Zain Claudette (Nigel French/PA)

“We’ve worked her on the Watered Gallop – and although it is a bit different, she flies down it.

“No matter what happens on Saturday we know that she is good enough to be a Group One filly at some point next year, which is great.”

Dawson – who last year spoke candidly about his battles with addiction – added: “Going to the Cheveley Park with her on Saturday is weird, because last season was what I describe as my first proper one riding, and here I am just over a year later I’m now riding a horse that is near favourite for a Group One.

“I’ve put down the drink for good this time and got the proper help and continued to get the help. Once I could live a life without needing a drink on the weekends to deal with life, I was able to give my career a proper shot.

“I’m trying not to think about the result on Saturday – if it doesn’t happen you don’t want to be too disappointed, but it would be incredible if it happened.

“I don’t mind talking about my back story, but when I ride a winner I would like people to concentrate on the winner at that time to help me move on.”

Zain Claudette floors Sandrine in Lowther

Zain Claudette emerged as a 1000 Guineas contender as she gave Ray Dawson his biggest career success in the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes at York.

Dawson stood up in the irons to celebrate as he crossed the line, accounting for the previously unbeaten Sandrine in the Group Two over six furlongs on the Knavesmire.

The Ismail Mohammed-trained filly had given Dawson his first Group-race winner in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot last month, and the 6-1 shot proved a length too good for Sandrine, the 6-5 favourite, to land the spoils.

Racing under a penalty for her win in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket, Sandrine was slowly away as her Andrew Balding-trained stablemate Nymphadora made the running with Outside World, Zain Claudette and Nazanin prominent.

Zain Claudette was well positioned and quickened in the closing stages to score from the staying-on Sandrine. Desert Dreamer was third.

Mohammed said: “At Ascot she was in stall seven and was number 11 and today the same – these are my lucky numbers!

“After how she worked last Sunday, I was more than happy and came here confident.

“She is the best I have trained up to now.”

The trainer confirmed the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes as the next port of call for his stable star and feels she has the potential to make up into a 1000 Guineas contender next season.

He added: “We will go to Newmarket now. She has won three times now over six furlongs, but I don’t think she is only a sprinter.

“I asked the jockey if she could stay further and he said ‘no problem’, so next year, we will go for the 1000 Guineas.”

A jubilant Dawson – who lost his claim just a week ago and last year spoke candidly about his battles with addiction – said: “She’s improved with every run and she deserved to win that on her performance.

“Going forwards, Group One is definitely not out of the equation, she’s just so straightforward and you can see she’s so relaxed.

“It’s just an absolute pleasure to be a part of it.”

Anna Lisa Balding, assistant to her husband, said of Sandrine: “We knew it would be difficult under a penalty, but she was only beaten three-quarters of a length.

“She slightly stumbled coming out of the stalls, but you can’t take anything away from the winner who has done it well.

“We’ll stick to Plan A and head to the Cheveley Park next. The only reason we came here with the penalty was because we felt it was just too long between races, we had to do something.

“She’ll have a little bit of a freshen up now. David (Probert) said she ran really well it was just the penalty that beat her. She was also having to come widest of all.

“She’s done little wrong, is a lovely filly and while it is always sad when you lose an unbeaten record, they have to be beaten sometimes.”

Zain Claudette edges thriller in Princess Margaret

Zain Claudette just got the better of Desert Dreamer in a thrilling finish to the Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes at Ascot.

Sent off a 15-2 chance for trainer Ismail Mohammed and jockey Ray Dawson, Zain Claudette cost just £20,000 as a yearling last September, but she has more than repaid that modest price tag with Group Three glory.

Crazyland raced keenly through the early exchanges, with Nazanin also happy to be on the front end as the eventual major players took up waiting positions further back in the 10-runner field.

It looked as though Oisin Murphy had timed his challenge to perfection in delivering 9-4 favourite Desert Dreamer on the far side of the track in the last of the six furlongs, but Dawson had other ideas on Zain Claudette.

She was flying on the near side of the track, with the pair neck and neck in the shadow of the post – and Zain Claudette edging it by a nose in a photo.

Delmona raced between the duo, eventually finishing a further neck down in third.

Zain Claudette (right) and Desert Dreamer were split across the Ascot track
Zain Claudette (right) and Desert Dreamer were split across the Ascot track (Nigel French/PA)

Mohammed said: “She’s a lovely filly and is doing very well. She worked very well last week.

“With each of her runs, she is improving. She’s had three runs, a second and two wins.

“We’re planning to go for some big races with her now – she’s already won a Group Three, so we’ll be looking higher than that.”

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.50 Bath : Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by Vet ; Lame)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.10 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard, which shows two of my own angles...

...and a 6 yr old gelding who won LTO 15 days ago (over 8.5f here at Wolverhampton). That win took his career A/W record to...

...from which he is...

  • 7/43 (16.3%) in handicaps
  • 7/32 (21.9%) within 15 days of his last run
  • 7/22 (31.8%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 6/35 (17.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/26 (19.2%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) in cheekpieces
  • 5/20 (25%) at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.1%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1/1 (100%) under jockey Ray Dawson (from LTO)

And now to my two saved angles, starting with "TapSprSire", which is basically a collection of sires whose offspring fare well in shorter races on the Tapeta. In today's case, the sire is Art Conoisseur and the angle is...

...and these include of relevance today...

  • 10/51 (19.6%) at odds of 3/1 to 14/1
  • 9/67 (13.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 9/64 (14.1%) from males
  • 8/45 (17.8%) during 2018-20
  • 6/35 (17.1%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 6/32 (18.75%) over 7f
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for trainer David Loughnane
  • 5/31 (16.1%) at Class 6
  • 3/16 (18.75%) from 6 yr olds
  • 2/6 (33.3%) from jockeys claiming 5lbs
  • 1/1 (100%) for jockey Ray Dawson

And finally to my cunningly entitled "Wolv" angle, which you might have guessed revolves around this course and here we're looking at trainer stats, namely...

...including...

  • 40/264 (15.2%) in handicaps
  • 33/229 (14.4%) in 9-12 runner contests
  • 31/143 (21.7%) at 3/1 to 11/1
  • 29/189 (15.3%) during 2019-20
  • 28/203 (13.8%) from males
  • 16/123 (13%) at Class 6
  • 15/100 (15%) over this 7f C&D
  • 11/79 (13.9%) in fields of 12 runners
  • 10/60 (16.6%) during August/September
  • 5/24 (20.8%) with a jockey claiming 5lbs
  • and 4 from 21 (19.1%) with 6 yr olds

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!