Posts

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.45 Taunton : Orchardstown Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 6/4 (Mistake 1st, held up behind, headway and in touch 10th, went 2nd before 4 out, led after next, driven clear after 2 out, stayed on well, comfortably clear by 8 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flashing Glance 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 2m on good ground, worth £6563 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is a former course and distance winner and comes here off the back of a decent run at Cheltenham 25 days ago, when third in a higher grade of contest than this one he faces today.

His trainer, Tom Lacey, has hit the ground running after the resumption of racing last week landing 4 wins from 10 runners (40% SR) for level stakes profits of 4.12pts (+41.2% ROI) for his followers. Amongst those 10 runners, hurdlers are 3 from 6, handicappers 2 from 5 and handicap hurdlers winning 2 of 3.

And it's with Tom Lacey we stay for our main chunk of data, as since the start of 2016, his hurdlers are profitable to backed blindly at 63 from 274 (23% SR) for 236pts (+86.1% ROI) and these impressive figures include the following of relevance today...

  • males are 45/206 (21.8%) for 193.7pts (+94%)
  • handicappers are 40/150 (26.7%) for 121pts (+80.7%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/78 (30.8%) for 116.6pts (+149.4%)
  • those ridden by Richard Johnson are 19/65 (29.2%) for 79.9pts (+123%)
  • over this 2m trip : 10/50 (20%) for 70.1pts (+140.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/42 (21.4%) for 38.2pts (+90.9%)
  • those dropping down a class are 10/23 (43.5%) for 58pts (+252.4%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 3/13 (23.1%) for 4.8pts (+36.9%)

...and male handicappers placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 48pts (+145.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Flashing Glance 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.15 Taunton : Capeland @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway before 3 out, blundered 3 out, kept on and held towards finish, going down by half a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Grade 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £33762 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar quality Grade 3 handicap chase here at Cheltenham over 3m3.5f when last seen 27 days ago, so stamina shouldn't be an issue today, which isn't surprising considering that offspring of Shirocco are 14 from 115 (12.2% SR) for 21.5pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly at trips of 2m6f to 3m3.5f since 2015, from which...

  • those competing for prizes below £35k are 14/108 (13%) for 28.5pts (+26.4%)
  • males are 11/98 (11.2%) for 22.2pts (+22.6%)
  • 11-45 days since last run = 10/75 (13.3%) for 14.1pts (+18.8%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 11/71 (15.5%) for 36.4pts (+51.2%)
  • on Good / Good to Soft : 11/71 (15.5%) for 33.8pts (+47.6%)
  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 11/69 (15.9%) for 32.1pts (+46.5%)
  • in 2018 alone : 7/42 (16.7%) for 26pts (+62%)
  • and at 3m1.5f to 3m3.5f : 4/21 919%) for 25.4pts (+120.9%)

Our trainer is Philip Hobbs (so you won't be surprised to see Richard Johnson in the saddle, but I won't bore you by repeating the well known/worn trainer jockey stats!) and Mr Hobbs is in good form again right now, with 13 winners from 44 already this month and that 29.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of some 109.4pts (+248.6% ROI) to betfair SP, including...

  • at odds of 9/1 and shorter : 12/35 (34.3%) for 31.7pts (+90.5%)
  • chasers are 7/18 (38.9%) for 117.5pts (+625.8%)
  • Sub 10/1 chasers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 34.8pts (+248.6%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 5/8 (62.5%) for 24.7pts (+309%) (all were chasers)
  • and sub-10/1 runners at 3m and beyond = 5/7 (71.4%) for 25.7pts (+367.4%)  (all were chasers)

And finally, a quick look at Philip Hobbs excellent record here over fences at NH HQ, particularly with those with a bit (but not too much!) of market support behind them. What I look for is a Philip Hobbs Cheltenham handicap chaser sent off longer than 3/1 but still at single digit odds and in numerical terms, we have...

...Hobbs + Chelts HC Chasers @ 10/3 to 9/1 = 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 61.7pts (+112.2% ROI) since the start of 2012 and these include of relevance today...

  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 12/39 (30.8%) for 59.2pts (+151.7%)
  • previous Chelts winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 26pts (+100%)
  • Class 1 = 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+97.9%)
  • aiming at prizes of £25k to £35k : 9/23 (39.1%) for 54.8pts (+238.2%)
  • Grade 3 = 5/18 (27.8%) for 29.5pts (+163.9%)
  • 8 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 28.2pts (+166.1%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 24.2pts (+268.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG, as offered by Hills, Ladbrokes & Coral at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.00 Fakenham : Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, not fluent 5th, ridden and headed bend approaching last, soon weakened) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, apologies for the slightly tardy write-up, I do aim to have this online by around 9am, but I had some stuff to deal with at my daughter's school this morning. Anyway, on with the details!

This 8 yr old gelding was a class, course and distance winner here LTO 22 days ago despite coming off a break of almost 6 months. He benefited from an excellent tactical ride from Richard Johnson (who retains the ride), doing just enough to win with enough in hand whilst protecting his mark for next time out. The result is a mere 3lb rise in weight, but he should also strip fitter for having had the run.

He's the only previous course and distance winner in today's contest, he loves some cut in the ground and has an excellent 30% strike rate in handicap hurdles, after winning 6 of 20 so far, including of relevance today...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) with a tongue tie
  • 6/15 (40%) going left handed
  • 5/6 (83.3%) in the final third of the year
  • 3/4 (75%) at Class 4
  • 2/4 (50%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/3 (100%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 (66.6%) off a mark of 110-120
  • 2/2 (100%) in November

His trainer Martin Keighley is 22 from 83 (26.5% SR) for 71.4pts (+86% ROI) with LTO winners since the start of 2015 and these include...

  • in handicaps : 16/59 (27.1%) for 64.3pts (+109%)
  • over hurdles : 16/49 (32.7%) for 71.9pts (+146.7%)
  • in handicap hurdles : 12/33 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+202.6%)
  • with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO : 11/22 (50%) for 53.1pts (+241.4%)
  • and with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO 6-25 days earlier : 9/15 (60%) for 49.8pts (+332.1%)

Martin also has a decent record record here at Chepstow, despite not actually having all that many runners come here. Since 2011, his handicap hurdlers have won 7 of 33 (21.2% SR) for 36.5pts (+110.6% ROI) profit, from which...

  • those last seen in the past 25 days are 5/18 (27.8%) for 40.44pts (+224.7%)
  • over this 3m C&D : 4/18 (22.2%) for 33.9pts (+188.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.1pts (+101.1%)
  • and at Class 4 : 4/12 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+142.2%)

And finally, I'll wrap this up by sharing one of my micro-systems that Solstice Star also qualifies from today...

...UK NH Hcp Hurdles + 2011-18 + LTO winner of a same class, course and distance hcp hurdle = 110/419 (26.3% SR) for 152.2pts (+36.3% ROI)...

In the interests of time, brevity etc, I'm not oing to drill down into that micro today, but it is worth noting that at trips of 3m to 3m2f, those 419 runners are 23/82 (28.1%) for 48pts (+58.5%) and those racing on Good to Soft are 17/68 (25%) for 49.5pts (+72.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Hills & Sky at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.30 Leicester : Lady Alavesa @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Behind, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led at post) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner on his only previous effort over fences and that was at Ayr back in May. He reappeared 11 days ago for a sharpener over hurdles, but was expectedly found out/outpaced over a much shorter trip, but the run will have done him good after 165-day absence. Back over fences and back up in trip, this should be more to his liking.

His yard is in great form of late with his stablemates winning 10 of 38 (26.3% SR) over the last 30 days, including 3 from 4 over fences, whilst in the last fortnight, they are 5 from 20 (25%) with a 2 from 3 record in chases.

In fact, it's less than 16 months since Olly Murphy had his first runner, but in that time he has quickly established a reputation as a decent trainer and although they do tend to attract market support, you can actually just about turn a small profit from blindly backing his chasers, as his 16 from 65 (24.6% SR) record has generated 1.16pts profit at Betfair SP at a modest ROI of 1.78%.

All 65 were males and whilst the returns are small, they're an excellent starting point and I'd never advocate blind backing anyway! Yet, of the Olly Murphy chasers so far...

  • handicappers are 14/58 (24.1%) for 2.44pts (+4.2%)
  • Class 4/5 runners are 15/51 (29.4%) for 10.22pts (+20%) you could actually stop here and do nicely!
  • after a break of 11-45 days : 12/47 (25.5%) for 8.71pts (+18.5%)
  • Class 4/5 handicappers : 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.49pts (+23.3%) another possible stopping point?
  • on Good ground : 9/34 (26.5%) for 9.1pts (+26.8%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 7/2 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.5pts (+38.3%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 7/25 (28%) for 4.41pts (+17.6%)
  • 8 yr olds are 4/14 (28.6%) for 0.32pts (+2.26%)
  • in October : 4/7 (57.1%) for 4.65pts (+66.4%)
  • and after a break of 11-15 days : 2/4 950%) for 1.47pts (+36.7%)

...and a handy composite micro from the above?

Well, it's probably a micro micro, but Olly Murphy's Class 4/5 handicap chasers priced at 10/3 and shorter just 11 to 45 days after their last run are 8 from 15 (53.3% SR) for 9.87pts at an ROI of 65.8% with Richard Johnson riding 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 9.64pts (+120.6%)...

...and Dicky himself is in good touch right now winning 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) in the last fortnight, including 7 from 14 (50%) over fences, whilst the last 7 days have seen him win 13 of 27 (48.2%) with a 5 from 7 record in chases.

And although the Murphy/Johnson/hcp chase angle hasn't seen much action in the last couple of months, it's still worth noting that it's good for 7 winners from 22 (31.8% SR) for 7.41pts (+33.7% ROI) and interestingly 5 of those 22 chasers ran in a hurdle race last time out. Two wins and a place from those five and a £100 outlay (5 x £20 straight win bets) on them would have made you £158.60 profit at an obvious ROI of 158.6%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

Your first 30 days for just £1

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2018

Thursday's Result :

5.55 Chelmsford : Roy's Legacy @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 I'll add the report later...

Next up is Friday's...

4.50 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thomas Patrick @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 3, 3m6.5f handicap on soft ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding with 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes in his last five starts, who jumped superbly and looked a natural when winning on his chasing debut last time out winning by 5 lengths at Chepstow three weeks ago on heavy ground.

That was not only his chase debut, but also the first time he'd been ridden by today's jockey Richard Johnson. He's also got past wins here and on soft and heavy ground in favour too, as well has having the benefit of being trained by Tom Lacey, whose runners are 50/256 (19.5% SR) for 203.3pts (+79.4% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • males : 40/207 (19.3%) for 200.2pts (+96.7%)
  • handicaps : 26/107 (24.3%) for 77.2pts (+72.2%)
  • on Soft ground : 15/77 (19.5%) for 41.7pts (+54.2%)
  • raced in past three weeks : 17/67 (25.4%) for 82.7pts (+123.5%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 15/65 (23.1%) for 42.4pts (+65.2%)
  • Class 3 : 7/45 (15.6%) for 48.9pts (+31.9%)
  • Exeter : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.66pts (+77.7%)

Whilst more generally, since the start of 2014 in UK Class 2/3 Handicap Chases, horses priced shorter than 8/1 running 6-30 days after winning a Novice Chase last time out are 79/291 (27.2% SR) for 62.4pts (+21.5% ROI), from which...

  • won by 5L or more LTO : 45/130 (34.6%) for 57.4pts (+44.2%)
  • on Soft : 27/92 (29.4%) for 49.03pts (+53.3%)
  • 3m2.5f to 3m6.5f : 3/12 (25%) for 10pts (+83.3%)
  • and at Exeter : 4/11 (36.4%) for 14pts (+126.9%)

...suggesting...a 1pt win bet on Thomas Patrick @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

1.45 Leicester : Head To The Stars @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 6/4 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, went 2nd 6th, led before omitted 3 out, headed after 2 out, no impression on flat, wearily beaten by five lengths...

We start the new month with Thursday's...

3.35 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m5.5f on Heavy ground worth £15,335 to the winner...

Why?

Philip Hobbs' 7 yr old gelding has 4 wins and 3 places from 10 starts so far, having previously won in bumpers, over hurdles and also over fences where he has 2 wins and a place from just four efforts including a win last time out. That was 26 days ago also here at Wincanton, also on heavy ground and although he's being asked to run an extra furlong today, he has previously won at this trip and further.

He has three wins from four heavy ground runs and has made the frame in each of the four races with Richard Johnson on his back, winning twice and with a good record in small fields (3 wins and a place from 4 in fields of less than 7 runners), there shouldn't be any fear of the unknown today.

Since 2011, the Hobbs/Johnson partnership is 66 from 352 (18.7% SR) for 79.4pts (+22.5% ROI) in Class 2/3 handicap chases, all with male runners and these include...

  • 7 to 9 yr olds at 47/222 (21.2%) for 83.7pts (+37.7%)
  • from November to march : 41/185 (22.2%) for 117.8pts (+63.7%)
  • 21-45 days since last run : 30/154 (19.5%) for 33.6pts (+21.8%)
  • and those dropping in class are 19/90 (21.1%) for 50.4pts (+56%)

This drop in class is also quite significant, as Philip's NH Handicap class droppers are 44/241 (18.3% SR) for 95.9pts (+39.8% ROI), which alone would have made the horse of interest, even more so when those last seen 21-45 days earlier are 23/13 (20.4%) for 99.7pts (+88.2%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2018

Wednesday's Result :

6.45 Kempton : Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 7/2 Slowly into stride, towards rear, stayed on inside final furlong, never nearer...

Next up is Thursday's...

2.35 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Handicap Hurdle over 3m1.5f on Soft ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has made the frame in four of his last five starts, winning twice including last time out seven days ago over 3 miles on soft ground at this grade. Despite easing down on the run-in, he was still home a good 13 lengths ahead of his nearest rival to whom he was conceding 25lbs.

He comes from a yard in great form, as Henry Daly's runners have 3 wins and 2 places from 9 starts over the past fortnight with 2 winners and a placer from five over the last week. Jockey Richard Johnson is also in good nick, having ridden 9 winners from 40 in the fortnight.

Meanwhile, here at Warwick, Henry Daly is 15/112 (13.4% SR) for 14.04pts (+12.5% ROI) since 2009, whilst Richard Johnson's record over the last 6yrs here stands at 38/170 (22.4% SR) for 0.19pts (+0.11% ROI), showing that his success seems to attract punters' money.

On top of all the above, Mr Daly's handicap hurdlers are 46/291 (15.8% SR) for 96.2pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2012, including...

  • at Class 3 : 12/86 (14%) for 32.9pts (+38.3%)
  • 6-25 days since last run : 18/77 (23.4%) for 30pts (+39%)
  • with Richard Johnson : 12/67 (17.9%) for 22.6pts (+33.8%)
  • and in January : 8/29 (27.6%) for 18.6pts (+64.1%)

...whilst over the last 2 years alone, his LTO winners are 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 13.14pts (+29.2% ROI)...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG which was available from half a dozen outlets at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd December 2017

Friday's Result :

7.15 Wolverhampton : Gracious John @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 Half reared start, chased leader, led 4f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely, all out to win by a short head.

Last one before Christmas is Saturday's...

2.45 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m7.5f on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

...and an ultra-consistent 9 yr old gelding with plenty about him and his trainer to like under today's conditions.

He was a decent 4th of 14 on debut almost 3 yrs ago and in 11 subsequent races has notched up 10 top 3 finishes (PU in the other!), winning on 6 occasions so far. He's 3 from 7 over fences, winning 3 of his last 5 over the past 21 months. He won here at Haydock on heavy ground by 13 lengths in a Class 2 contest 13 months ago, before ending that campaign with a follow up win by 13 lengths at Newbury last December.

He made his reappearance in a Grade 3 race at Cheltenham last month over a longer trip than usual/today and wasn't disgraced in finishing third. In his defence, he was running off the back of a 339-day absence, but now has the benefit of a run under his belt and drops down in both class and trip.

Now, shall we have some numbers? To date, this one has achieved the following of relevance today...

  • 3/8 on soft/heavy (1/4 over fences)
  • 6/7 after a break of less than 6 weeks (3/4 over fences)
  • 4/7 going left handed (2/3 over fences)
  • 3/6 under jockey Richard Johnson (all over fences)
  • 3/4 at Class 2 (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/4 in fields of 8-11 runners (1/2 over fences)
  • 2/3 over a 3m trip (all over fences)
  • 2/3 here at Haydock (1/1  over fences)
  • 2/3 in cheekpieces (all over fences)
  • and 1/4 on heavy (1/2 over fences)

And what of his trainer? Well, step forward Philip Hobbs, whose NH handicappers running on heavy during the main jumps season (Oct-Apr) are 22/110 (20% SR) for 29.3pts (+26.6% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • those priced at 5/2 to 10/1 : 18/72 (25%) for 58.5pts (+81.3%)
  • chasers are 11/57 (19.3%) for 17.1pts (+30%)
  • under Richard Johnson : 12/56 (21.4%) for 12.5pts (+22.4%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m1f : 6/30 (20%) for 9.98pts (+33.3%)
  • and at Class 2 : 5/24 (20.8%) for 8pts (33.3%)

Plus, it's a Saturday... And that's the day the big guns come to play and the best/most competitive racing takes place, making it generally harder to find a winner. Yet Mr Hobbs' Class 2 handicap chasers are 24/134 (17.9% SR) for 44pts (+32.8% ROI) on Saturdays since 2010 and that's more than his fair share of winners and a decent chunk of profit. In respect of today's contest, those 134 Saturday runners are...

  • 17/68 (25%) for 38.4pts (+56.5%) under Richard Johnson
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 56.1pts (+130.5%) over 2m7.5f to 3m1f
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.55pts (+59.6%) on heavy ground.

Want/need more convincing? OK, I've plenty, but I'll cap this off by reminding you that our boy drops down in class to Class 2 today, because since 2011, the Hobbs' Class 2 to 4 handicap chasers dropping down in class are 38/217 (17.5% SR) for 55.8pts (+25.7% ROI), including...

  • with Richard Johnson in the saddle : 26/117 (22.2%) for 65.6pts (+56%)
  • over 2m6.5f to 3m1f : 15/71 (21.1%) for 72.3pts (+101.8%)
  • and over 2m6.5f to 3m1f with Richard Johnson in the saddle : 10/42 (23.8%) for 56.1pts (+133.6%)

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Hills & Ladbrokes at 6.00pm on Friday with plenty of acceptable 10/3 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Jump Jockeys: How Are The Mighty Fallen?

How are the mighty fallen in the midst of the battle!

- Samuel, 1:25

Perhaps more so than the terrific performances at Cheltenham this past weekend, or the death of National Hunt benefactor Alan Potts, jump racing's headlines have been hogged in recent days not by horses or owners, nor even trainers; but, rather, by the riders.

First Paddy Brennan was sensationally 'jocked off' Cue Card, sweetheart of so many fans of the winter game, after a tumble too many; then Sam Twiston-Davies broke his elbow in a fall at Sandown before, this past Saturday, Ruby Walsh broke his leg in what was, remarkably, his third fall of the afternoon.

It is of course the very essence of the National Hunt jockeys' existence to face down danger between ten and twenty - and as many as 32 - times per race. In that context, falls are a natural by-product of race outcomes. But what is a reasonable rate for a rider to become separated from his or her equine partner?

Let the data speak.

 

Fall/Unseat Rates: The Five Year Macro Data

Below are the faller rates for the last five years in UK/Irish chases by a number of the top jockeys, one notably since retired. To be clear, this is for steeplechase falls and unseats (FU's) only, and the table is sorted by number of rides.

 

Jockey Rides FU's FU %
R Johnson 1552 88 5.67%
S Twiston-Davies 1484 93 6.27%
N Fehily 1003 59 5.88%
P Brennan 999 56 5.61%
D Russell 800 57 7.13%
B Geraghty 740 40 5.41%
AP McCoy 724 41 5.66%
R Walsh 651 53 8.14%
J Kennedy 258 24 9.30%

 

To add more global context to this subset of superstars, the average fall/unseat rate in the last 10,000 starters in UK and Irish chases has been 6.59%. Solely in Irish chases, the last 10,000 starters there fell or unseated at a rate of 7.84%, presumably because of the heavier turf on which they predominantly race (a subject for another, wetter, day). It may then be fair to say that anything lower than that is outperforming the average, and anything higher than that is under-performing against the average.

But not all chase rides are 'average'. The likes of Ruby Walsh and Jack Kennedy are more frequently engaged in the kind of skirmishes for victory which may demand firing a horse at the last, or an earlier fence, in a more aggressive fashion than, say, a rider popping round for fourth place.

If that is to mitigate, the disparities in the table cannot be so simply swept from view.

We can see i the table that, on a large number of rides, many of them with winning chances, Richard Johnson, Sam Twiston-Davies and Noel Fehily have all kept their fall/unseat rate below 6.5%. So too have Paddy Brennan, Barry Geraghty, and the now retired Tony McCoy.

But across the Irish Sea, look at Davy Russell, who leads the Irish jumps championship this term, and his hitherto closest pursuer, Ruby Walsh. Note also Jack Kennedy, number one jockey at Gordon Elliott's powerfully ascendant yard.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Russell's tumble rate of 7.13% is on the high side compared with Britain, but not wildly out of kilter with the pan-national average and in the green zone against his domestic peer group. The same cannot be said of Jack and Ruby. Although the former is young and arguably still learning his trade - arguably because he's had many more rides than plenty of jockeys five years his senior - the latter especially looks a surprisingly precarious pilot. Now, before the hate mail starts, obviously I recognise that Ruby Walsh is one of the great jockeys of our time and that this is but one barometer of a jockey's ability.

But, all the same, if I want to bet at a short price - and his rides are almost exclusively offered at prohibitive odds - I need to know that I have to factor a higher than average likelihood of my selection not passing the post in a chase with the rider on its back. With Jack Kennedy, he's almost 20% more likely to be dumped on the turf than the Irish average.

Let me be clear again: this is not about Ruby or Jack or anyone else. I'm far too selfish for that. No, this is about me as a punter knowing what I'm up against. About being forewarned and, therefore, forearmed.

 

Fall/Unseat Rates: The One Year Snapshot

Five years is a long time and it makes for some statistically significant (in the context of racing's generally small samples at least) inferences. But how do we compare jockeys with themselves? One way is to look at a snapshot - a subset - of the overall dataset. For punting purposes, the most current subset seems the most sensible. Below then are the last twelve months for the same jockey grouping, again sorted by number of rides.

 

Jockey Rides FU's FU %
R Johnson 301 20 6.64%
S Twiston-Davies 300 16 5.33%
D Russell 210 9 4.29%
N Fehily 206 12 5.83%
P Brennan 182 7 3.85%
R Walsh 124 13 10.48%
J Kennedy 123 12 9.76%
B Geraghty 105 9 8.57%
AP McCoy NA NA NA

 

Whilst even more care needs to be taken not to make bold claims on the basis of flimsy sample sizes, there remain elephants in the room.

First, let's look at Paddy Brennan, recently relieved of his supporting role atop the gorgeous Cue Card. His 3.85% fall/unseat rate in the past year is comfortably the lowest in the group and almost 1.5 times better than his five year average. Was he thus unlucky to lose such a coveted ride? That depends entirely on whether you're a macro sort of guy or you have the nuanced eye to make decisions based on the specifics of a handful of rides. I certainly don't consider myself qualified in the latter context and can see arguments for and against the rider switch.

The British Champion Jockey, Richard Johnson, has seen his tumble rate increase in the past twelve months, though possibly not materially. It has crept above the 10,000 runner average of 6.59% by a tiny margin: Johnson's renewed appetite to forage for every ride will have introduced a greater element of quantity over quality to his diet and the variance may perhaps be explained in such a way.

Noel Fehily has been remarkably consistent while Sam Twiston-Davies, who amazingly (to me at least, he seems to have been around for a long time) has only just turned 25, has retained his partnerships on a notably more frequent basis according to the most recent evidence. Tough luck then to break his elbow earlier this month; he actually rode in a subsequent race, attesting to the no-safety-net trapeze swing between heroism and stupidity that many in the weighing room unquestioningly fling themselves.

Meanwhile, Ireland's champion jockey-elect, Davy Russell, is 27 winners clear of his nearest challenger if one excludes the sidelined Walsh from calculations. Russell is approaching veteran status, though still in his late thirties, and has courted controversy this year in the manner with which he attempted to correct a recalcitrant mount. That episode deserves no more than a footnote in a piece the focus of which is elsewhere, and it will indeed be a shame if a man shunned by his major employer less than four years ago does not receive the praise he deserves if/when winning the jockeys' championship. Fair play to him.

To the elephant or, more precisely, the trio of elephants, in the room. Barry Geraghty first. He is one of the best jockeys I've seen and, in his time at Nicky Henderson's, was a man never to be dismissed. But, since taking the green and gold coin of Team JP, misfortune has followed him like a very bad smell. Since last July, he has broken both arms, in separate incidents; cracked a rib and collapsed a lung on another occasion; and recently (late August) fractured a shoulder blade. You have to be tough to be a jump jockey - far tougher than to look at numbers and write words about the subject - but my admiration starts to wane when riders persist in the face of mounting fragility.

It's no more my place to suggest to a rider about when to retire as it is for a rider to enquire on the number of winners I've ridden. So I won't. All I'll say is that I imagine the partners and families of jump jockeys rejoice the news of their loved one's cessation of getting legged up in a similar vein to that of the partners and families of professional boxers on hearing of gloves being hung for the final time. And I sincerely hope BJG has a long, uninterrupted and fruitful spell between now and whenever he pursues alternative employment.

Yet still we've to address the figureheads of Closutton and Cullentra, Ruby and Jack. In the last twelve months, Kennedy has come unstuck a dozen times from 123 chase starts. That's as near to ten per cent, and as near to 25% above the Irish average, as doesn't matter. Walsh has fallen or unseated once more than Kennedy, from one more ride, in the same period, a ratio above 10% and almost 33% greater than the norm.

It seems churlish to kick a man when he's down - Ruby faces a race against time to be back for the Cheltenham Festival and, like all fans of the sport, I hope he makes it - so I'll let those data speak for themselves. All I will add is that, to my eye - and keep in mind I've never ridden a winner - Ruby takes too many chances with fatigued animals late in races. Mounting (or, cynically, dismounting) evidence seems to support that.

The pressure in the Elliott and Mullins camps must be enormous, not just from the trainers, but from owners, other jockeys in the yard and, increasingly, the omnipresence of (social) media. Much of the latter is unworthy of attention, but when you're accustomed to being told how good you are, the sharper brickbats probably leave a weal.

 

Final Thoughts

There is an inherent selection bias in the tables above. Each of the jockeys therein has earned his place by being at the top of his peer group; such elevation comes only from taking chances when they're presented, and occasionally fashioning them when they may not absolutely be there.

As sports gigs go, riding 600kg animals over five foot fences (apologies for mixed metric-phors) around fifteen times per race on average is down there with the worst of 'em. It would never be for a wuss like me. Although not big on machismo either, I have a robust respect for these turf-eating gladiators as a collective.

But when the wallet comes out, they are individuals. And I want to know which individuals will support my bottom line, in the same way that these jocks want to know which horses will provide the winners to propel them up the championship table. It's every man (and woman) for themselves. Nobody is more or less selfish than the next, either in the punting or riding ranks; and nor should they be.

To that end, the frailties of otherwise tremendous jockeys with enormous (and, in the main, well deserved and hard earned) reputations are power to the contrarian punters' elbow.

Ruby has won aboard 30% of the chasers he's ridden in the last five years. That's open water clear of the next best (McCoy 22%, Daryl Jacob and Noel Fehily 20%, Sam T-D and Paddy B 19%, Richard Johnson 18%). But, from a punting perspective, his negative ROI of 18.86% at SP during that time is surpassed by absolutely nobody in his Premier League peer group. Some of that, of course, relates to his stable's form with chasers, most of it to the over-exposure of the Mullins/Walsh/Ricci PR machine; that's neither here nor there in terms of wagering.

Meanwhile, on the flip side, the unfashionable Paddy Brennan not only wins at a 19% clip, he's also secured a profit of almost 60 points at SP in the same time frame, regardless of the Cue Card fallout.

Backing horses is not a beauty contest, nor is it about fashion. On the contrary, the value lies wherever the spotlight doesn't. And, even in the halogen glare of the media beam, punting pearls are left for those with peripheral vision. Always be asking questions, take nothing on trust. The data is here. Use it. It rarely lies.

I genuinely hope Ruby gets back in time for the Festival, and I further hope he has a fantastic time of it. But I'll not be touching his chase mounts there, or pretty much anywhere else. That's unlikely to trouble him, of course. Devil take the hindmost!

Matt

Monday Musings: Title Settlement

 

Bank Holiday Mondays allow me a little flexibility in terms of deadline, writes Tony Stafford. I know this because the Editor takes longer than usual to acknowledge receipt of these jottings. Saying that, he will probably have been awake early as the sun peeped across the horizon well before 6 a.m. the time today when I finally realised what the topic would be.

By a circuitous route, having started out with the Henderson-Nicholls and Mullins-Elliott season-long scraps finally decided and the likeliest subject, I landed on June 11 2006 at the picturesque Perth racecourse.

That day an unknown young Irish trainer travelled over his recent acquisition, a horse called Arresting, to Scotland and, ridden by Richard Johnson, Arresting was an emphatic winner, backed in to 7-2 favourite. He had won at the track on his previous appearance, on his sole run for Gavin Cromwell, but joined Gordon Elliott, according to official records, six days before the June 11 landmark.

Elliott, a graduate of the Martin Pipe stable, had yet to win a race in his home land, but Arresting gave him two more victories in the UK that summer, stopping off in between without success at the Galway Festival.

Thirteen horses took part in that first race and the lists of trainers and riders illustrate how quickly the pendulum swings in racing, like life really. Stuart Coltherd, Jim Goldie, Geoff Harker, Diane Sayer and Grand National winner Lucinda Russell remain active, while the remainder, including recently retired Keith Reveley have either handed in their licences or, in the case of doubly-represented Peter Monteith, died.

Of the 13 jockeys, only the relentless Johnson; James Reveley, then a 7lb claimer, now France’s jumps champion; and Paddy Aspell, still ride over jumps, although he has gradually switched more to the Flat. Graham Lee finished runner-up here two years after his Grand National triumph on Amberleigh House, who died last week aged 25. Now he rides exclusively on the level.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Michael McAlister, then a 5lb claimer, had his last rides, winning one of six in the season ending last April, while Richie McGrath, Jimmy McCarthy, Phil Kinsella, David da Silva and Peter Buchanan have all retired after varying degrees of success.

Tony Dobbin, 45 years old today and another Grand National hero, almost a decade earlier on Lord Gyllene, the only Monday winner, is now assistant trainer to his wife Rose, while Kenny Johnson has taken over his father Bob’s small yard in Northumberland.

There is another name from the race which has forced itself into the racing consciousness, particularly over the latest season. Neil Mulholland, unplaced in that Perth race, won 54 races over a ten-year span in the UK, again with a Martin Pipe connection, before starting out as a West Country trainer in the 2008-9 season.

He was an immediate success with 16 victories in his initial campaign, before collecting between that figure and 21 in the next four years. More recently, Mulholland has found acceleration and expansion, almost Gordon Elliott-like, with 31, 51 and 60 wins before the latest awesome tally of 108 wins from 129 horses. His list of owners makes impressive reading, dozens and dozens of names, with Bob Brookhouse, one who is always ready to pay plenty at the sales, a notable major operator for the yard. Big-race wins, usually in staying chases have come via The Druids Nephew, The Young Master and Pilgrims Way, while he’s also proved a dab hand at winning Flat-race handicaps with some of his lesser jumpers.

Gordon Elliott’s narrow failure to dethrone Mullins after their final day denouement at Punchestown cannot alter the fact that he has become the big name going forward. He did something nobody – to my limited knowledge anyway – has matched, to win a Grand National before winning a Rules race in his native country. Silver Birch, a Paul Nicholls cast-off, won ten months after the first of the three Arresting victories and it was not until later that year that the Irish explosion began.

After two blank seasons, Elliott had six wins in his third, then 14, 26, 62, 40, 54, 56, 92, 123 and a mammoth 193 from an astonishing 285 horses, 101 more than Mullins up to Saturday. As the still-champion Willie lost 60 of the Gigginstown horses – not all of which ended with his protagonist – it was indeed a doughty effort to stay ahead but a team of 184 active horses is hardly negligible.

The next three home in Ireland were Henry de Bromhead, Jessica Harrington and Noel Meade, all with big teams, Harrington benefiting from the Ann and Alan Potts defection from de Bromhead with the other pair similarly indebted to the Mullins split with Gigginstown.

Of the trio, only Mrs Harrington is seriously involved in the Flat with 47 three-year-olds and juveniles listed in the latest Horses in Training book. She was at it again last week, winning five races at Punchestown while yesterday, she had a winner each at Limerick and Gowran on the Flat, beating horses trained by Aidan and Joseph O’Brien respectively.

Gordon Elliott sent out a remarkable 1,234 domestic runners last season, even more than Richard Johnson rode in his second-busiest season; 188 wins from 1,026 compared with easily his best, 235 from 1,044 the previous winter when he collected his first title after 20 years’ wait for A P McCoy to retire. Since 1996-7 Johnson has posted a century of winners every season, with between 102 and 186 until the last two. The McCoy retirement has brought an average of 200 extra rides, a good few of them horses McCoy would have partnered.

Johnson shows no sign of slowing down, bar injury or illness, so there is little chance he will fail to complete the hat-trick as he intends to mirror McCoy’s annual tactic of a fast start during late spring and summer.

Nicky Henderson’s stable stars contributed greatly to his fourth trainers’ title, but it also helped that he had more individual horses (173) to run than anyone other than Dan Skelton (202). Henderson and Nicholls had an almost identical win average, around 25%, a figure which only Harry Fry, among the leaders, with 23%, could get anywhere near. Fry’s Punchestown double last week confirmed his status as a future potential champion trainer.

Team Tooth had a first Flat runner (two getting-handicapped Winter AW runs apart) at Yarmouth, and Stanhope as usual suffered an element of bad luck as he finished a close fourth.

It seems he’s a horse that finds trouble, but when he doesn’t it finds him, as when at Sandown, a golf ball from the inside-the-track course flew up from a rival’s hoof and hit jockey Charlie Bennett a resounding bang on the helmet.

Here, Pat Cosgrave had just moved him into a gap to challenge, when it closed. In a desperate attempt to get home in front, Jamie Spencer launched his whip right handed, twice hitting Stanhope on the head. First you can see him flinch right, then more dramatically back and left, so it was brave of the horse to nick fourth under hands and heels after recovering. Pat says he’s stronger this year. He’ll need to be!

 

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2017

Friday's Result :

3.10 Kempton : Vyta du Roc @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 15/8 Tracked leaders, mistake 10th, jumped left and hit 3 out, no impression next, blundered last.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Vieux Lille @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner-up over this same trip on soft ground in a Class 2 contest when last seen 8 weeks ago at Haydock, beaten only by Yala Enki who has since stepped up to finish fourth in a Grade 3 race off a mark of 141, whilst our runner now drops down in class to C3 to run off 133 here.

Trainer Philip Hobbs is in decent form with 9 winners from 34 (26.5% SR) over the last fortnight and here at Newbury since 2011, he has had 29 winners from 175 (16.6% SR) for excellent level stakes profits of 237.6pts at an ROI of 135.8%.

These 175 runners include the following of interest today...

  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 26/116 (22.4%) for 271pts (+233.6%)
  • in chases : 15/77 (19.5%) for 60.1pts (+78.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/72 (18.1%) for 104.8pts (+145.5%)
  • on soft ground : 12/57 (21.1%) for 79.1pts (+138.7%)

And more generally, the Hobbs handicappers dropping in class are 39/218 (17.9% SR) for 94.4pts (+43.3% ROI) since 2014, from which...

  • those dropping 1 class are 29/157 (18.5%) for 91.3pts (+58.1%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45.2pts (+42.6%)
  • those dropping from Class 2 are 12/63 (19.1%) for 14.3pts (+22.7%)
  • and on Soft ground : 11/52 (21.2%) for 72.4pts (+139.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Vieux Lille @ 10/3 BOG which was available with both Bet365 & BetVictor at 8.10pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.15 Lingfield : Barye @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 - Mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.05 Hereford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Uncle Jimmy @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding last won 6 starts and over 2 years ago, but was a decent third (his second such finish in his last three outings) at Newbruy last time out, over this trip and also on soft ground.

That was, however, a Class 2 hurdle and now for his second crack at the largewr obstacles, he drops two classes to run here, where conditons look favourable at the very least, because so far, he is...

  • 4/10 in fields of 7 to 12 runners
  • 3/10 under Richard Johnson
  • 3/8 on soft ground
  • 2/5 at Class 4
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 at 3m1f

As suggested above, he'll be ridden by Richard Johnson, who has a good record riding for Philip Hobbs and of particular interest to me here in the following angle...

...Hobbs / Johnson / Class 3&4 / Novice Chase / 2010-16 = 38/147 (25.9% SR) for 22.9pts (+15.6% ROI), including...

  • males : 36/142 (25.4%) for 23.1pts (+16.3%)
  • 11-45 dslr : 25/84 (29.8%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%)
  • 1-4 previous chase runs : 25/71 (35.2%) for 23.3pts (+32.8%)
  • 3m to 3m1.5f : 13/44 (29.5%) for 20.1pts (+45.7%)
  • on Soft : 6/29 (20.7%) for 5.73pts (+19.75%)
  • at Hereford : 1/1

And it's also worth adding the fact that Philip Hobbs' chasers on a losing run of 1 to 8 races and now with an Official rating lower than their last win are 32/154 (20.8% SR) for 58.7pts (+38.1% ROI) since 2012, of which...

  • at trips of 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f : 19/83 (22.9%) for 72.5pts (+87.4%)
  • at class 4 : 15/38 (39.5%) for 48.1pts (+126.7%)
  • on soft : 8/37 (21.6%) for 10.3pts (+27.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Uncle Jimmy at 9/2 BOG with Bet365 and/or BetVictor who led the way at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Hereford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.15 Lingfield : Barye @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 - Mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.05 Hereford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Uncle Jimmy @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding last won 6 starts and over 2 years ago, but was a decent third (his second such finish in his last three outings) at Newbruy last time out, over this trip and also on soft ground.

That was, however, a Class 2 hurdle and now for his second crack at the largewr obstacles, he drops two classes to run here, where conditons look favourable at the very least, because so far, he is...

  • 4/10 in fields of 7 to 12 runners
  • 3/10 under Richard Johnson
  • 3/8 on soft ground
  • 2/5 at Class 4
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 at 3m1f

As suggested above, he'll be ridden by Richard Johnson, who has a good record riding for Philip Hobbs and of particular interest to me here in the following angle...

...Hobbs / Johnson / Class 3&4 / Novice Chase / 2010-16 = 38/147 (25.9% SR) for 22.9pts (+15.6% ROI), including...

  • males : 36/142 (25.4%) for 23.1pts (+16.3%)
  • 11-45 dslr : 25/84 (29.8%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%)
  • 1-4 previous chase runs : 25/71 (35.2%) for 23.3pts (+32.8%)
  • 3m to 3m1.5f : 13/44 (29.5%) for 20.1pts (+45.7%)
  • on Soft : 6/29 (20.7%) for 5.73pts (+19.75%)
  • at Hereford : 1/1

And it's also worth adding the fact that Philip Hobbs' chasers on a losing run of 1 to 8 races and now with an Official rating lower than their last win are 32/154 (20.8% SR) for 58.7pts (+38.1% ROI) since 2012, of which...

  • at trips of 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f : 19/83 (22.9%) for 72.5pts (+87.4%)
  • at class 4 : 15/38 (39.5%) for 48.1pts (+126.7%)
  • on soft : 8/37 (21.6%) for 10.3pts (+27.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Uncle Jimmy at 9/2 BOG with Bet365 and/or BetVictor who led the way at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Hereford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard