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Well I Declare: 27th October

Well I Declare: 27th October

Well I Declare: 27th October

Plenty of action to take aim at today, with meetings scheduled for Aintree, Chepstow, Doncaster, Newbury, Stratford and Wolverhampton, so here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's preview of...

...SATURDAY 27/10:

Aintree:

General stats: Here’s an unusual name for you to note, because James Bethell has saddled two of his three runners at Aintree to winning effect in recent years.

Class 3 handicap hurdle over seventeen furlongs scheduled for 1.50: Philip Hobbs has saddled the winner of two of the last three renewals and Philip held two options at the five-day stage.  Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 11/2, whilst two favourites have prevailed thus far.

Monet’s Garden Chase scheduled for 3.30: Only one favourite has obliged via eight renewals to date.

Novice handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.00: Peter Bowen has saddled three of the last six winners and Peter only had Catch The Fire involved at the five-day stage.  Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last six renewals.

Class 3 two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 4.35.  Four of the last six market leaders have won during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 6/1.  Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners and the trainer was only represented by Unioniste at the time of writing.

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 5.10: Jonjo O’Neill’s only entry at the five-day stage was Tominator who finished third in the Cesarewitch the other week, a horse which reached three figures on the level.  Jonjo has won the race three times in the last eight years.

 

Chepstow:

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General stats: Keith Goldsworthy matches more obvious trainers at the low-end of the twenties in terms of strike rates at Chepstow.

Persian War hurdle scheduled for 3.30: Paul Nicholls held one option (Wonderful Charm) at the time of writing for a race he has secured three times in the last five years.

 

Doncaster:

General stats: Sir Henry Cecil had won with three of his last seven runners at the time of writing and boasting a 25% strike rate at Doncaster in the last five years, Henry’s lone entry on the card (Tiger Cliff) would be an interesting runner if offered the green light.

Class 2 five-furlong handicap scheduled for 2.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests.  Five renewals have slipped by since a successful favourite was recorded, whilst the last three winners have scored at 25/1-10/1-9/1.

Racing Post trophy scheduled for 3.05: Aidan O’Brien was responsible for six of the fifteen runners at the penultimate stage, having saddled four winners of this Group 1 event during the last eleven years.  Seven of the last ten renewals have fallen the way of favourites.

Conditions event scheduled for 4.45: The last seven contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being registered.  The biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 10/1 (last year).

 

Newbury:

General stats: Mahmood Al Zaarooni boasts a 30% strike rate via 6/20 figures and in a week in which the trainer excelled last year, more winners could be on the cards at the Berkshire venue.

‘Horris Hill’ juvenile event scheduled for 2.15: Just one favourite has prevailed during the last eleven years.  Richard Hannon has saddled 14/1 and 7/1 winners during the last three years and the trainer was responsible for three of the eighteen five day declarations.

Group 2 St Simon Stakes scheduled for 2.45: Three and four-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals between them (juniors lead 4-3).  Ten of the last eleven winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include three winners.

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 3.45: Three-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a five timer.  Four of the last eight renewals have been won by favourites of one description or another which is terms of the competitive nature of the race, is a very decent record.

 

Stratford:

General stats: John Berry has won with four of the nine runners he has saddled at Stratford in recent times.

Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 3.20: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests.  Four years have drifted by without a successful market leader being recorded after the first three renewals were secured by favourites.

Class 5 Handicap Chase over seventeen furlongs scheduled for 4.30: The last eleven winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less (four winning favourites).  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last five contests.

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 5.05: The last eight contests have been won by four and five-year-olds with the juniors having secured five of those renewals.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Keith Dalgleish went through a quiet spell as all trainers do recently, though his yard is firing in the winners again and his 19% strike rate (backed up by an LSP reading of forty-four points) make for good reading at Wolverhampton.

Well I Declare: 8th September

Well I Declare: 8th September

Well I Declare: 8th September

There's a busy racing prograame today and whilst Mal Boyle's main focus is on events at Haydock (including a detailed look at the Group 1 action scheduled for this afternoon, we've also got some information and pointers to help you make your picks at Ascot, Thirsk, Kempton, Wolverhampton and Stratford!

SATURDAY 08/08:

Ascot:

General stats: It is very difficult to achieve good figures at Ascot given the competitive nature of the sport at the royal venue.  James Fanshawe has achieved quite a feat in recent times by securing a 20% strike rate (via ten winners) which is backed up by twenty five points of level stake profits. 

 

Haydock:

General stats: Favourites in the non handicap sector have performed well (as is usually the case) in two and three year-old events at Haydock this year.  47% of the juvenile events have been won by market leaders, whilst favourites have secured 53% of three-year-old non handicap contests.

Group 1 six furlong Sprint Cup (3.25)--Statistics for the potential 18 runners at the time of writing:

Bated Breath: Haydock record: 3/4----Group 1 record: 0/8

Confessional: Haydock record: 1/6----Group 1 record: 0/1

Dandy Boy: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/2

Elusivity: Haydock record: 0/4----Group 1 record: 0/0

Genki: Haydock record: 1/4----Group 1 record: 0/7

Gordon Lord Byron: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/0

Hawkeyethenoo: Haydock record: 0/1----Group 1 record: 0/1

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Hitchens: Haydock record: 1/2----Group 1 record: 0/5

Kingsgate Native: Haydock record: 1/4----Group 1 record: 2/17

Majestic Myles: Haydock record: 0/2----Group 1 record: 0/0

Mayson: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 1/1

Society Rock: Haydock record: 0/2----Group 1 record: 1/8

Soul: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/3

Strong Suit: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/6

Es Que Love: Haydock record: 0/1----Group 1 record: 0/1

Reply: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/4

Ortensia: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 3/16

Wizz Kid: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/4

Three favourites have won during the last six years, though six of the ten winners in the last decade have been returned in double figures.  Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-3 over the last ten years. Five of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.


Other races at Haydock on Saturday:

Listed juvenile event over one mile scheduled for 1.45: Three of the four favourites (via three renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include one successful (even money) market leader.

Class 2 five furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 2.15: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals during the last decade, statistics which include two successful market leaders (within the last four years). Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests.

Listed ‘Superior Mile’ due to be contested at 2.50: Four-year-olds had won the previous three renewals before two three-year-olds outgunned the best placed four-year-old bronze medallist twelve months ago.  Six of the nine favourites have finished in the money via eight renewals, statistics which include three successful market leaders. Sir Michael Stoute is the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions and Tales Of Grimm was Michael’s only option earlier in the week.  Dank (7/2) was a winner for the service last week following similar comments relating to the same trainer.

Fourteen furlong Class 2 handicap event scheduled for 4.00: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourites have prevailed via nine renewals during the last decade.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).  Mark Johnston held five options for the race at the time of writing having secured three of the last eight contests. Six of the nine winners carried a minimum burden of nine stones

Six furlong Nursery event due to be contested at 4.30: Only two of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (7/2) successful favourite. All five winners have carried 9-2 or less, as have thirteen of the fourteen horses which have finished in the frame.

 

Thirsk:

General stats: Tony Coyle saddled a 10/1 winner on the first day of September and Tony’s record at Thirsk makes for decent reading.  Tony has saddled three of his eleven runners at the venue to winning effect in recent times, whilst securing fifteen points of level stake profits. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: William Muir’s outsiders are worth a second glance at Kempton given his fifty seven point LSP figure via twenty three winners during the last five years. 

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Keith Dalgleish has saddled eleven winners at Wolverhampton this season via a 20% strike rate which has realised seven points of level stake profits. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: I noted that trainer Anthony Honeyball was singled out as a trainer to watch in one of the Geegeez blogs recently and readers of this service will know that I have talked about Anthony’s recent success rate at length.  Anthony’s strike rate here at Stratford stands at 38% via five winners, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of twelve points. As the blog suggested, Anthony’s runners tend to perform well a long distance from home, albeit Stratford is too far away from the trainer’s Dorset base.  Rachel Green (Anthony’s partner) is one of the unsung heroes of the turf (note the politically correct writing) and long may that continue whereby we ‘shrewdies’ can avail ourselves of decent prices relating to her mounts.

Well I Declare: 30th August

Well I Declare: 30th August

Well I Declare: 30th August

Mal's still away for a few days yet, but I've brought you a quick reminder of his insights on today's racing from Hamilton, Lingfield, Kempton, Fontwell, Hereford and Stratford...

THURSDAY 30/08:

Apologies for the lack of a main meeting on which to offer stats and facts.  Every now and then (because of Bank Holiday schedules usually), a day occurs when ‘new meetings’ generally rule the roost whereby no trends are in place….and this is one such occasion. Lingfield ‘ripping up their carpet’ did not help on this occasion!

 

Hamilton:

General stats: William Haggas has saddled five of his twelve runners at Hamilton to winning effect thus far, whilst Jeremy Noseda’s 2/5 ratio is worth noting. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Derek Haydn Jones boasts 3/7 figures in recent years, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of ten points. However, Roger Charlton record of 7/17 during the last five years makes for even more impressive reading.

 

Kempton:

General stats: The yellow and blue stars colours of Pearl Bloodstock have been prominent at Kempton in recent years, claiming eleven successes from just twenty-three runners.  The stats have helped to achieve a level stake profit of thirty-five points. The other positive factor is that the colours are easy to spot, even in a big field!

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Nicky Henderson (38% strike rate) and Donald McCain (33%) lead the figures of the potentially represented trainers at Fontwell on Thursday, whilst Renee Robeson’s (2/8) runners might be worth a saver.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Jim Best will not want this venue to close down, given that the trainer boasts figures of 7/21 (eight points LSP) whilst John Ferguson’s rare visits have paid via 2/4 figures. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: I hope I have alerted you to the training talents of Richard Woolacott in recent weeks and months and this is one of the venues to focus on given Richard’s 2/4 ratio.

Well I Declare, 16th August

Well I Declare: 16th August

Well I Declare: 16th August

Thursday looks a busy day with no less than six meetings on the horizon. I've just brought you a quick recap of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the scheduled action from Beverley, Chepstow, Newmarket, Salisbury, Fontwell & Stratford. All taken, of course, from Mal's comprehensive Tuesday morning's Well I Declare article.


THURSDAY 16/08:

Beverley:

General stats: Only one of the seven races went the way of a market leader on the Thursday card last year, the other six winners ranging in price between 6/1 and 33/1. 

 

Chepstow:

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General stats: Punters are due a better day than on this card last year as the winners scored at 28/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-13/2-11/2-11/4* on what was perfect (good) going whereby there were no excuses made on account of the ground. The toteplacepot dividend of £2,421.40 told the story as just two favourites finished in the frame via the opening six races.  Sir Mark Prescott and Peter Chapple-Hyam lead the percentage table of the potentially represented trainers on Thursday.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: This is the start of a three-day meeting which produced a strike rate of 35.0% of winning favourites (7/20) twelve months ago.  Peter Chapple-Hyam (22/1 & 6/1) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1 & Evens--17/1 double on the final day of the fixture) were the only trainers to saddled two winners.  All seven winners on the first day were recorded in single figures, ranging between 8/11 & 9/1.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Richard Hannon saddled a winner on each day of the meeting twelve months ago, opening the two-day fixture with a successful 15/8 favourite before winning the penultimate race on the Thursday via an 8/1 chance. 

 

Fontwell:

General stats: We have been starved on NH action of late whereby I will report the leading trainers (ratios) in August according to my records: 5/11-Tim Vaughan---3/16-Lucinda Russell---2/6-Donald McCain---2/4--Richard Woollacott---2/5--Philip Hobbs

 

Stratford:

General stats: Thursday was not a fortunate day for the majority of punters twelve months ago because alongside the poor results at Chepstow, all six favourites were beaten at Stratford, with winners going off at 33/1-25/1-8/1-11/2-5/1-7/2. Charlie Longsdon boasts a 34% strike rate at the track, statistics which have produced nearly twenty-two points of level stake profits.  Daniel Mark Loughnane has scored with both representatives at the track thus far, securing an LSP figure of twenty-one points.  Daniel held two options earlier in the week for this meeting.

Well I Declare, 2nd August

Well I Declare, 2nd August

Well I Declare, 2nd August

It's Thursday and Day 3 at Glorious Goodwood and I'm just here to bring you a reminder of Mal Boyle's thought for the day's action. He's also got some information on the meetings at Epsom, Ffos Las, Nottingham and Stratford on what promises to be yet another enthralling day in our beloved sport.

THURSDAY 02/08:

Goodwood:

General stats: Sir Michael Stoute secured a 24/1 double on the card on the Thursday of the meeting last year.

Ten furlong three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.15: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whilst Mark Johnston is looking for his fifth winner in the race in the last fourteen years.  John Gosden has won three of the last nine contests, whilst favourites have won six of the last eleven renewals of this opening event on day three of the meeting. Ten of the last fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions.

‘Richmond Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.45: Richard Hannon has secured the last four renewals of this Group 2 Richmond Stakes and with four penultimate stage entries, Richard was obviously intent on saddling another winner.  Five winning favourites to report in ‘recent’ seasons (2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 & 1999), whilst nine of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years.

‘Goodwood Cup’ scheduled for 3.15: Favourites have won six of the last eight contests, whilst nine of the last 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

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Fourteen furlong Group 3 ‘Lillie Langtry’ event scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer whilst three of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner) via nine renewals.

Seven furlong juvenile (‘New Ham‘) event scheduled for 4.20: Golden Causeway is my speculative juvenile to look out for in the two-year-old division at ‘Glorious‘ Goodwood this year.  I made the point twelve months ago that Amber Silk could be backed at an each way price and the Barry Hills raider finished second at 20/1.  Barry had won a few renewals shortly before his retirement and it’s worth noting that Charlie Hills has, without question, waited for this event to saddle his Giant’s Causeway filly.  Charlie named the January foal as one to watch in a stable tour earlier in the year. Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fifteen years.  Nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 2 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 4.55: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more to victory. No favourite has prevailed during the study period (fourteen years), whilst seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Eleven furlong Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 5.25: We still await the first successful favourite following seven renewals, four of the winners having been returned at odds ranging between 14/1 & 25/1.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Medicoe (scheduled to run in the 6.55 juvenile event) holds three entries this week but if lining up here, Sir Mark Prescott’s raider will be hoping to improve the 3/8 tally for the stable in two-year-old event at Epsom in recent years.  Mark’s 42% strike rate across the board makes for great reading, though Medicoe is Mark’s only potential runner on the card. 


Ffos Las:

General stats: Strategic Heights has been declared for the scheduled 8.50 event by trainer Liam McAteer who has saddled three of his six runners at the venue to winning effect.


Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor (37% strike rate) and Michael Appleby (36%) potentially head the represented trainers at Nottingham on Wednesday. 

Stratford:

General stats: Kielan Woods is already booked aboard Gougane (4.30), the jockey having ridden five of his eleven mounts to winning effect at Stratford! A level stake profit of thirty-three points adds icing on the cake.

Trainer Stats: 17th May 2012

Nicky Henderson is one of many NH trainers taking advantage of the current wet conditions around the country. Read more

Trainer Stats: 29th March 2012

Sue Smith Is In Red-Hot Form At Present

Sue Smith has fired in SIX winners since Andy Newton mentioned her last week, so see who's on his trainers 'hot list' this week. Read more

Trainer Trends – 20th Oct

Training GallopsWith the jumps season starting to hit top gear find out which NH handlers are hitting the ground running, while there’s a high-profile flat trainer who is on the cold list and heading for his worst campaign for over 20 years..... Read more

Well I Declare, 13th July 2011

Gay Kelleway has a chance at Lingfield today

Gay Kelleway has a chance at Lingfield today

Well I declare……

I hope you latched on to several winners last week which included those returned at 25/1 and 10/1! Read more