Racing Insights, Saturday 07/10/2023
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...
1-year form...
course 5-year form...
...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...
- 1.50 Ascot
- 2.55 Curragh
- 3.35 Ascot
- 4.00 Fontwell
- 6.00 Wolverhampton
- 7.30 Wolverhampton
...the best of which, on paper at least, is the first on the list, the 1.50 Ascot, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed Flat race over a straight 5f on good ground...
Glamorous Breeze and Korker both won last time out, but the former steps up from Class 4 to run here, whilst the latter is up one class, as is fellow joint top weight Chipstead, who now wears cheekpieces for the first time. The other joint top weight, Emaraaty Ana is the highest rated and is at least 3lbs 'well-in' with all his rivals, but is one of only two runners (Rage of Bamby being the other) without a win in his recent formline, but he has been second and third in two Listed events in his last two outings.
Zudu Spirit makes a UK debut here and will sport a first-time tongue tie on his opening effort for new trainer George Boughey some two months after his last French run for Mauricio Delcher-Sanchez at Deauville; the rest of the field have all raced in the last month or so with only Rage of Bamby yet to win over today's trip. With regards to previous Ascot runs, only Rage of Bamby and Zudu Spirit have yet to run at Ascot, but Instant Expert says the other half dozen runners are a combined 0 from 15 here!
Zudu Spirit has no previous UK form, hence the blank line of data. Elsewhere Emaraaty Ana looks weak, but does get the trip with only Chipstead having a better strike rate over 5f. For consistency, Nymphadora probably shades it, but there's not much to writhe home about from those win stats, so let's check place form...
...which represents a complete turnaround for Emaraaty Ana, who now looks the one to beat on the above data with Designer now looking the weakest. I often revert to place for if there isn't much 'green' on the win stats!
The draw stats for the small number of previous past similar races suggest that there is very little/no advantage in being drawn in any particular stall from either a win or place basis...
...whilst the pace stats for those races say that leaders do very well at making the frame but are often beaten by those racing prominently just behind...
...as only 10% of the leaders who made the frame managed to hold on to win, whilst 61.5% of the prominent running placers managed to beat the leader home. If we look at the field's recent outings...
...it looks like Emaraaty Ana and Nymphadora might well be allowed to dictate terms here with not many of the others looking like they'd want to go with them and based on those pace averages above, our pace/draw heat map looks like this...
Summary
For me, Emaraaty Ana and Nymphadora are the best two runners in the race and they look like they'll control things from the front. The former holds the advantage in terms of ratings to weight carried, but hasn't won for a while, whilst the latter won a Listed race recently and was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in a Group 3 last time out.
On that basis, Nymphadora looks better value at 11/2 than Emaraaty Ana does at 9/4. As for a third horse for the frame, I fancy Rage of Bamby and Korker to go well and I'd probably sway towards the former based on ratings/weight, even though the latter won last time out. This pair are 6/1 and 4/1 respectively so no E/W pick there.
If I was to try and highlight one that might go well at a bigger price, then maybe Designer at 12's might be the one, but she'd need some luck to get ahead of a couple of the others I've mentioned.
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