Tag Archive for: Trainer Jockey Combo Stats

Racing Insights, Saturday 26/03/22

Saturday's free GOLD feature is the very popular Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users. Basically, many trainers turn to preferred riders when they have one ‘ready to win and this report quickly identifies those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

These are the settings that I apply for my TJC report searches...

...as I'm far more interested in quality over quantity, but sadly I have neither today because I've no qualifiers at all! Now, if I wasn't a Gold subscriber, it might seem as I've been stymied, but fear not! There's always the daily free races to tilt at and they are...

  • 1.25 Curragh
  • 3.20 Kempton
  • 3.28 Stratford
  • 3.46 Kelso
  • 4.16 Curragh
  • 4.55 Wolverhampton

And of those, I'm going to tackle the one from the Scottish Borders. It might only have a handful of runners, but it's a competitive-looking stayers handicap, but the best (on paper) of our free races is the 3.46 Kelso, a 5-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle (13 flights) over a left-handed 3m2f on good ground. It's worth a cool £18k to one of these...

All five have displayed some type of decent form in their latest races, all have won at least once in their last six outings with the top two on the card (Sultan's Pride & Wakool) looking the best with four wins from six with the former winning seven of his last ten!

Sultan's Pride is one of two (Kaizer) former course and distance winners, but only Wakool is without a win at a similar trip as Teescomponents Lad and Small Present have both won over 3m1½f at Catterick.

We should have no rustiness here with all five having raced in the last three to seven weeks, but none are turned out very quickly. Sultan's Pride is out only LTO winner, having beaten Teescomponents Lad by 2.5 lengths.

SULTAN'S PRIDE
Has shown almost continuous improvement since returning to action in October 2020 after a 7.5 month break, winning by 20 lengths at Hexham on that comeback run. He's 6 from 9 since then and 3 from 3 since Christmas, all at Doncaster. He's up 5lbs for his latest win taking his mark to some 39lbs higher than his October 2020 comeback run, but still looks the one to beat under an in-form jockey, Theo Gillard...

WAKOOL
Another progressive type who has made the first three home in each of ten starts over the last seventeen months, winning four times and has scored at classes 4, then 3, then 2 so far this season. Had to settle for second LTO denying him a four-timer as he was unlucky to run into The Big Galloper at Musselburgh. He's bang in form, as are both yard and rider together and individually and as a 'son' of Motivator is expected to be a decent hurdler (his 3-6 yr old hurdlers are 21 from 105 since 2018)...

TEESCOMPONENTS LAD
Ran consistently well during the last third of 2021, finishing as runner-up three times before winning over 3m at Market Rasen in November before a third of ten at Carlisle in December, despite a 6lb rise. Not the same in his first two runs this year as 6th of 8 (17L) and 3rd of 5 (13L), but did show signs of recovery back down in weight when a 2.5 length runner-up to Sultan's Pride LTO.

SMALL PRESENT
Came alive around this time last year, winning at Catterick, Doncaster and Haydock at four-week intervals before a seven month and an ill-fated (10th of 11, 61L) solitary attempt over fences. Won over hurdles on his return to Haydock two months ago, but will ned a bounce back here after a poor run there a month ago, when 6th of 9, beaten by 16 lengths.

KAIZER
The first three months of 2022 have been the best spell of form for this 7yr old since back to back wins inside a week in Sept/Oct 2019! Only beaten by a length and a quarter at Class 4 over 3m½f at Newcastle in mid-January, he hen stepped up in class/trip/weight to win a Class 3 here over course and distance by a comfortable 15 lengths that really could have been any margin. That didn't fool the assessor and he was raised 9lbs for the win for next/last run, which saw him finish second of ten also here at Kelso three weeks ago, where it was the sharpness of a 2m5f trip that was more to blame than his mark of 115. Now back up in trip.

At this point, I'd have to say that likely favourite Sultan's Pride is the one to beat, but if you're undecided or disagree, then Instant Expert might sway you...

Yes, he's another 5lbs higher than his latest win, but that isn't much more than the rises for Small Present, who was poor LTO and Teescomponents Lad, who he beat LTO. Kaizer & Wakool, on the other hand are much higher than they've previously won at. Elsewhere, not too much red around, thankfully, but Kaizer's 0/8 at Class 2, 1/7 at Kelso and his 1/13 in smaller fields makes him the worst on that graphic. Wakool is 0/3 on good ground, but that doesn't tell you that he made the frame in all three.

It might well be that tactics decide this competitive event and based on their most recent efforts, I'd expect the likes of Kaizer and Teescomponents Lad to set the tempo, whilst the two form horses, Sultan's Pride & Wakool are the ones who'll be waited with...

Sadly, we don't have enough data about the pace in small field stayers hurdles at Kelso, but I do know from my own visits that those trying to win the race from the front have often failed, but you'll have to trust me on that one 😉 If my memory serves me correctly, then that's a further blow to the chances of Kaizer and Teescomponents Lad.

Summary

From the start Sultan's Pride and Wakool were the two that stood out. I have them in that order on form, overall record and Instant Expert. They're closely matched on pace and I expect/hope they'll be the first two home with Sultan's Pride leading the way.

So, they're my 1-2 and I've got them at 2/1 and 3/1 respectively, so I'm pleasantly surprised to see Bet365 offering 5/2 about the fav, so that's where my money is going (plus the reverse forecast, of course!) today. Wakool is a solid 3's in most places.

 

 

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 05/03/22

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report , bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

We also have a selection of free functional racecards on offer to non-Gold subscribers and they will cover...

  • 1.40 Navan
  • 2.55 Doncaster
  • 3.30 Doncaster
  • 3.43 Kelso
  • 5.15 Doncaster
  • 7.00 Southwell

My settings for the TJC report have generated the following for course 5-year handicaps...

and these for 1 year (anywhere) handicaps...

...but I want to focus on the free races today, because the two back-to-back Doncaster offerings are both decent-looking Class 2, soft (heavy in places) ground, 5yo+ handicap chases. The first is a 7-runner affair over 2m½f worth just over £15.6k, but I want to look at the 3.30 Doncaster, because it has 8-runners (better E/W possibilities), the trip is 3m2f (I love the stayers) and it's worth just over £28.6k to the winner, who'll have successfully negotiate 19 fences on a left-handed track and here are the runners...

We have three LTO winners on show here in the shape of Soyouthinksoagain, Powerstown Park and Le Milos. The latter is actually on a hat-trick and won in this grade LTO, making him probably the form pick as the other two are now both stepping up in class, as is Legends Gold. Cloth Cap, Mister Malarky and Storm Control, on the other hand are all dropping down from Class 1 (Lst, Gr3 & Lst respectively) action.

Mister Malarky makes a debut for his new handler here and it's his first run since a wind op. Storm Control is the only previous course winner, albeit at a trip 7f shorter than here, but he has also won over both 3m1½f and 3m2½f, whilst Cloth Cap, Undersupervision and Powerstown Park are winners at 3m2f, whilst Soyouthinksoagain has scored at 3m1½f. No real negatives from trainer/jockey form, so let's look at the horses...

CLOTH CAP
Won back to back Class 1 races last season, including his first run of 2021 almost a year ago. This season hasn't quite gone to plan for him and hasn't really seen races out properly and refused to jump the last at Ascot last time out. He is a pound lower than his last win, but has a poor record on soft ground.

LE MILOS
Switched to chasing at the start of 2021 and has finished 313211 since. He gamely made all at Sandown a month ago and was all out to hang on by a head, but now he's up 4lbs and this is 2f further than LTO/he's ever gone, which makes life tough, but he is 2 from 2 on heavy ground. Might have more to come?

MISTER MALARKY
A winner of 3 Class 1 chases (Lst, Gr3 & Gr2) in 2019/20, but his form since landing a Listed race in mid-December 2020 reads 73P050 and has been heavily beaten in each of his last three outings. Hasn't raced for 14 weeks now, so might need a run anyway and this is his first outing since leaving the Tizzard yard.

STORM CONTROL
Was more comfortable than half a length might suggest when winning at Newbury in mid-January despite idling on the run-in, a tendency that cost him next time out 10 days later, when throwing a 5 length lead away and getting caught in the last half furlong by Windsor Avenue in the Sky Bet Chase here over 3m five weeks ago. Up 4lbs and 2 furlongs here, will find this a tougher task and hopefully he'll be kept working to the line. Should that happen, he has every chance.

UNDERSUPERVISION
Will get the trip and loves heavy ground, but hasn't quite managed to reproduce his hurdling form over the bigger obstacles. He wasn't outclassed at Sandown recently but was still beaten by some 12 lengths and will need to improve to get involved.

SOYOUTHINKSOAGAIN
A reasonable hurdler (2 wins and 4 places from 11) who has really taken to chasing, finishing 2161 in four starts and on bare results, you'd give him a chance, but he's up in class, up 4lbs and is unproven on soft/heavy ground. I suspect he'll go well for much of the race, but find it a bit much when push comes to shove.

POWERSTOWN PARK
Has landed two nice victories at Hereford from his last three outings either side of being pulled up at Market Rasen on Boxing Day to get off the mark over fences, having won each of his last three efforts over hurdles last March. A gutsy likeable sort, who recovered from a couple of mistakes last time out to still win and although he's up in class and weight, the trip's no bother and better jumping might carry him through.

LEGENDS GOLD
Started the season well, finishing 332, albeit beaten by 11 and 14 lengths in the latter pair of those races. Didn't go at all last time out at Wincanton, though and was always struggling before being withdrawn 5 out. A 10-day break might not have been enough that day, but he fact remains that she's still only 1 from 9 over fences and despite receiving weight all round and liking soft/heavy ground, the sole mare in the field might find this too much.

Although this field have made the frame in 71 (46.1%) of their combined 154 previous outings, winning 36 (23.4%) of them, soft/heavy ground and a fairly lengthy (3m2f) trip often sorts out the wheat from the chaff, so we turn to Instant Expert for a breakdown of how they've fared under expected conditions...

...and this happens quite often in such races, one horse will have a far better record under the conditions than the rest of the field and I'm really interested in Storm Control at the moment from a win perspective. Let's look at the place results to see who might challenge...

Well, there's not really a lot there if truth be told. Le Milos and Legends Gold are probably the best of the rest, based on that evidence. If we revert back to Storm Control, his recent efforts suggest he fares best when up with the pace and might well decide to try and win this from the front...

...which based on the data from our Pace Analyser could well be the right tactic to employ...

Le Milos who scored better than most on Instant Expert is also likely to be in the ascendency early on, improving his own chances, as will Cloth Cap.

Summary

The three most likely to take it on, Storm Control, Cloth Cap and Le Milos are probably the ones to focus on here. I was rather hoping that Powerston Park would have a stronger pace profile, because I did quite like his chances p to that point, but I'm reluctantly setting him aside and hoping I don't rue the decision.

Of the three I am going with, it's hard to get away from Storm Control's chances here, he has ticked more boxes than the others all the way through and although he can be lazy late on, the better quality around him could just spur him on and based on that, I think that Bet365's price of 11/2 is quite generous and at least a full point more than I expected, so I'm on!

As for the other pair, I've little/nothing between them on my own ratings, but Le Milos is probably a better horse in better form and will get the ground more readily, so I'd say Le Milos beats Cloth Cap here for silver.