Tag Archive for: Trainer Jockey Combo Stats

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/07/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report are fairly restrictive...

...and they haven't actually generated any runners for me to look at, so it's a good job that as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 2.15 Beverley
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 4.35 Beverley
  • 5.58 Bellewstown
  • 8.00 Bellewstown

The pick of these is undoubtedly the Old Newton Cup but 17-runner handicaps tend not to be my thing, so I'll stick to the next best and first of that list, the 1.30 Haydock, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

We've no LTO winners to discuss today, but Due for Luck was third of nineteen in the Epsom Dash at the start of the month, beaten by a length and a half with the re-opposing Curious Rover a further 2 places and 2.25 lengths further back. Curious Rover has raced again since and was also third last time out, beaten by 2.5 lengths at Chester in an eleven-runner field and he's now a pound better off with Due For Luck.

All seven runners here have won at least one of their last seven races and all bar Fools Gold have had at least one outing in the last five weeks, but he hasn't been seen for nearly ten months since being well beaten (10 lengths) in a Group 2 race at Doncaster, when seventh of eight. He has been gelded during his layoff but will probably need the run here on his handicap debut.

He's down three classes here today, as none of this field actually raced at Class 4 last time around; Vince L'Amour, Lady Pink Rose and Moonstone Boy all raced at Class 2, whilst Due For Luck and Curious Rover both competed in Class 3 handicaps. Only bottom weight Cloud King steps up in class here.

Only Curious Rover and Due For Luck have raced here at Haydock before with the former winning a Class 2 Nursery over course and distance last September in a race where Due For Luck was last home of the four runners, almost seven lengths down and it's this pair that lead the way on Instant Expert...

Vince l'Amour and Moonstone Boy have done well over this trip too, although the former's best runs have come on soft and heavy ground and this might be too quick for him. From the above, it's Due For Luck who has had the most success turning those placed efforts into wins...

You wouldn't normally expect much of a draw bias in a small field over a straight 5f on good ground, but the results from similar past races doesn't bode well for the chances of Cloud King and Moonstone Boy drawn higher than stall five...

I must admit that I didn't expect that, but I wasn't surprised to see the following pace data from those races above...

... which then generated this pace/draw heat map...

Fools Gold only has three previous runs under his belt, so it's probably fairest to just analyse the field's last three runs and here's how they've approached then from a pace perspective complete with the corresponding pace/draw heat map for this contest...

Summary

For me, it's a two-way battle between Curious Rover and Due For Luck and I feel they're very closely matched. The former leads the head to head by 2 to 1, the latter had the better win record on Instant Expert. Both are drawn well, both made the frame last time out and both had good place record on Instant Expert, but Curious Rover likely to attempt the control the race from the front, he'd be my marginal pick here at 4/1*, which offers better value than the 2/1* ticket on Due for Luck.

Only 2 places on offer today, sadly, but 10/1* outsider Moonstone Boy could easily outrun those odds and he might be the one who'd take advantage of any slip up from my 1-2.

*odds taken from Bet365 (only book open) at 4.40pm Friday.

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.55 Newcastle
  • 1.05 Chelmsford
  • 1.30 Newcastle
  • 3.05 Aintree
  • 6.10 Wolverhampton
  • 7.20 Dundalk

...gives me a grand total of thirteen races to cover, including two Class 1 contests from the Grand National meeting. It'd be rude of me not to cover one of those (even if others more qualified to do so will be doing elsewhere on Geegeez) and if I'm going to do one, I might as well do the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle! It's on your cards as the 3.05 Aintree and 12 runners (4yo+) will tackle 13 hurdles over a left-handed trip of 3m 154yds on soft ground in the aim of winning £140k...

Botox Has, Hewick and Hiddenvalley Lake all won last time out, whilst Flooring Porter was second only to Teahupoo in the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in a race featuring five of this field. Strong Leader was also in the frame on his last run, but is the only runner here not to win any of his last five starts.

All twelve raced in Class 1 races last time around and most have raced at least once in the last two months, but Champ & Strong Leader haven't been seen for eleven weeks, Hewick's last outing was his win in the King George on Boxing Day, whilst Proschema hasn't re-emerged since being pulled up before three out in this very race last year.

That race was won by Sire du Berlais, as it was in 2022 so the Elliott/Walsh Trainer/Jockey Combo will be seeking a hat-trick today and this triple Grade 1 12yo comes here off the back of a fine run at HQ. Champ has also won over this course and distance, whilst Crambo, Dashel Drasher, Proschema and Strong Leader have all also scored on this track, but the latter is the only runner here without a win over a similar trip...

...whilst Buddy One, Dashel Drasher, Proschema and Strong Leader have found top-level race wins hard to come by. Sire du Berlais' back to back wins in this race are reflected in the track stats and Flooring Porter has an excellent record over this type of trip. At first glance, Monkfish would be of interest, but he struggled in the Gold Cup last time out and wa susbsequently found to have bled, so I'd not be too keen on backing him here.

If truth be told, our pace analyser doesn't have much data for today's expected race conditions...

...but does seemingly suggest that a runner willing to take the race on would be of interest, which is good news for the likes of Flooring Porter...

...amongst a group who like to race prominently. Sire du Berlais, however, has taken to racing in the rear of late and this might prove his undoing (as well as his age etc) in his bid for a third successive win.

Summary

For me, this is Flooring Porter's race to win/lose. Second only to Teahupoo last time out, he looks set to control the tempo of the race from the front here and I think his current (3.15pm Friday) 7/2 odds look more than fair.

As for the places (and bookies will pay four here), I'd want at least 8/1 about a horse to make me interested, so let's look at the market...

To be honest, the first four in the odds could very well be the first four home, but it rarely works out that way. I don't rate Champ or Proschema's chances so if I was to take an E/W punt on one (or more) of...

...I think I'd probably put Botox Has ahead of Buddy One and Dashel Drasher. Strong Leader and Hewick are a little short at 9's and 11's for me, whilst Monkfish's run at the Gold Cup puts me off.

Racing Insights, Saturday 03/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day overall form...

1-year overall form...

Course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.50 Epsom
  • 1.50 Musselburgh
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.45 Stratford
  • 6.10 Lingfield
  • 8.00 Tramore

...and although the Epsom 'freebie' is a Group 3 contest, we do have a qualifier from my TJC Report running in a 'free' race, so we're heading twenty miles South East of the Downs for the 6.10 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard polytrack...

Featured horse Citizen General is the only LTO winner in the field, having won here over slightly further (1m5f) three weeks ago, taking his current run to three wins and a runner-up finish from his last five outings. Of his rivals, only Appier had a top 3 finish on their last run and he also won two starts ago. Open Champion, Arcadian Friend and Night Eagle are the others with a win inside their last five runs.

Citizen General is up in class here, as are Nawras, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King, but top-weight Open Champion actually drops down a level here from a ninth place (of 10!) finish at Epsom 39 days ago. That break is the longest of the six to have had a recent run, but Bright Start, Nawras and Arcadian Friend might be a little rusty coming off respective absences of 132, 203 and 255 days.

Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have won at neither track nor trip, but the other six have done both with four (Open Champion, Appier, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King) having won over course and distance at the same time. This will be Nawras' handicap debut after just four stats, whilst it's Liseo's seventh outing, but only his second in a handicap and his first in cheekpieces.

Aside from not winning here or over this trip, Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have no A/W wins yet, according to Instant Expert...

It turns out that the trio are actually 0 from 20 between them and despite making the frame in 5 of his 10 starts, the winless Bright Start must be vulnerable here and if I was to discard any runners here, if would be the bottom foru on the above graphic, leaving me with (in draw order)...

Arcadian Friend is probably the weakest of the five on that evidence and carrying 10lbs more than his last win might prove difficult here, but he is drawn highest of my quintet for a race that has favoured those drawn highest, especially for the places...

...but as you all probably know, I'm not a massive fan of the school of thought that says the draw can't kill you before you stat over trips like this, so we should focus on tactics/race positioning ie pace and those races above haven't been overly kind to pace-setters or dwellers...

...with those racing just off the pace or in mid-field reaping the most rewards, which might suit the bottom trio on this graphic more than the two above them...

...with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that Open Champion could be well suited here...

Summary

Open Champion looks well placed to bounce back to form after struggling on unsuitably soft ground LTO and he did won over course and distance on his only other previous visit to Lingfield. He's currently priced at 10/1 with Bet365 and I think that's a decent price for an E/W tilt.

I say E/W, because I think featured horse Citizen General and Appier tick more boxes for me based on the evidence/data above and whilst I doubt there'll be much between them, Citizen General won last time out and he won here, so he just edges it for me. The bookies also think it'll be tight and they've gone 10/3 joint favs on the pair.

Good Luck and have a great weekend.

Chris

Racing Insights, Saturday 29/04/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a pair of qualifiers solely on the 1-year form filter as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Sandown
  • 2.35 Punchestown
  • 3.45 Haydock
  • 4.10 Ripon
  • 7.15 Doncaster
  • 8.15 Doncaster

...and my rules of no Irish and no Flat in April has somewhat backed me into a corner, leaving me with only the 2.15 Sandown to consider. This has 18 runners, taking me out of my comfort zone and my aim will be to find myself an E/W bet or two after If Not For Dylan was a 22/1 winner for us on Friday. This race is an 18-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase (24 fences) over 3m4½f on good to soft ground that will be soft in places and here's the card...

Annsam, Moroder and Coolvalla all won last time out, whilst Kitty's Light, Broken Halo and Mucho Mas come here seeking a hat-trick of wins. Annsam is actually 2 from 3, Certainly Red is 3 from 4 and 4 from 6, Revels Hill has 2 wins and 4 places from 6, Moroder is 5 from 7, Coolvalla is 5 from 6 and with only Tea Clipper, Enrilo and Red Happy on fairly lengthy losing runs of 8, 8 and 11 races respectively, there's a fair amount of horses in form.

That said, two thirds of the field are up in class here as only half a dozen ran at Class 1 last time out, the highlight being Kitty's Light's success in the Scottish National at Ayr just a week ago. Of the class risers, four (Annual Invictus, Moroder, Organdi, Musical Slave) are up from Class 2, half a dozen (Annsam, Certainly Red, Revels Hill, Coolvalla, Broken Halo, Mucho Mas) raced at Class 3, whilst both D'Jango and Red Happy might struggle after being well beaten in Class 4 handicaps!

Court Master runs for the first time since a wind op and he's been off the track the longest at 307 days. Organdi returns from a six-month break, but the others have all been out in the last nine weeks, with Kitty's Light turned back out just a week after that triumph at Ayr and he'll probably be grateful for the half-mile step back in trip!

Revels Hill is the only one to win at this trip before, landing a chase at Taunton in mid-March 2022 four starts ago off 9lbs lower than today. We do have six former course winners, though, in the shape of Frodon (2m7f chase), Certainly Red (2m4f chase), Enrilo (2m4f hrd), Broken Halo(3m½f chase), Musical Slave (3m chase) and Mucho Mas (also 3m chase).

Further to the above details, Instant Expert informs me that Tea Clipper, Annual Invictus, D'Jango and Red Happy are a combined 0 from 27 over fences on good to soft / soft ground and that Organdi has never tackled such conditions. We're also told that aside from Frodon's brilliant record of 13 Class 1 chase wins, only four of his rivals have won at this grade, once each...

And on the simple basis of green is good and red isn't, there are concerns about Tea Clipper (going/class), Kitty's Light (class) Annual Invictus (going), Enrilo (class), Musical Slave (class), D'Jango (going) and Red Happy (going). Conversely, the likes of Annsam, Certainly Red, Moroder and Coolvalla should like the underfoot conditions and whilst Frodon clearly isn't the force he was, now that he's 11, he's certainly proven at this level.

However, as I'm looking for some decent priced E/W plays, we need to look at the place stats...

... I think it might serve us well to isolate the categories here as follows...

...where the names cropping up most are Kitty's Light, Musical Slave, Frodon and Revel's Hill, whilst the likes of Broken Halo, Certainly Red, Coolvalla, Enrilo and The Goffer all score respectably and it's this group, that I want to focus on from here...

Sadly, we again have little pace data to to work with here...

...but the small number of horses setting the pace have done pretty well, but I wouldn't be hanging my hat on those stats too much right now, although, it suggest that the veteran frodon might well enjoy himself again, based on my shortlist's recent performances...

Frodon looks like the one most likely to set the pace here and in a race where the bookies are paying six (yes, 6!) places, he has every chance of hanging on, especially coming here with a win and three third place finishes from his last five.

Summary

If i was a sentimental type, I'd be backing/willing Frodon to win this at a generally available 14/1 (5 places) or 12/1 (6 places), but I think he'll get beaten by the two market principals Kitty's Light and Revel's Hill, but I'd be happy to back the old warrior E/W here.

As for the others on my shortlist, I'd discount Enrilo on form, Broken Halo mighty struggle up two classes and 5lbs, but Certainly Red, Coolvalla and The Goffer all look more than capable of making the frame at 14's, 10's and 9's respectively, whilst Musical Slave might be the best value at 20/1 if he runs like he did when runner-up in this race last year, half a length ahead of Kitty's Light. I'll have a couple of shillings on him too.

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/03/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a pair of runners for both the 1-year form and course 5-year filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 3.05 Hereford
  • 3.55 Ayr
  • 4.20 Gowran Park
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...and with a couple of my TJC Report qualifiers running in 'free' races it makes sense to focus on one of those. The Sandown race is clearly the better standard, but 17-runner novice handicaps aren't really my bag, so let's focus on the 3.55 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good/good to soft ground...

Joint youngest (with Donna's Double) Readysteadybeau is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Glittering Love was a runner-up beaten by just a head. Cash To Ash, Strong Economy, Glittering Love and Crixus's Escape are all winless in five and the latter in one of a few with plenty of letter in their formline, as his last seven races contain 4 x pulled up and a last of seven. Perversely, he was a runner-up in the other two!

Plenty of Class movement here, as only top-weight Fortified Bay, Donna's Double, Strong Economy and Readysteadybeau ran at Class 3 LTO with Just Don't Know and Niceandeasy both dropping down a class and Cash To Ash, Glittering Love & Crixus's Escape all up from Class 4, which doesn't inspire confidence in latter who has failed to complete his last two at a lower grade.

LTO winner Readysteadybeau wears a visor for the first time here, whilst bottom weight Crixus's Escape returns from an eight break during which he had wind surgery, but he's not the one who has been away from the track the longest as Niceandeasy (71 days), Strong Economy (122d) and Glittering Love (72d) all come off 10+ weeks absences. The rest of the field have raced in the last 24-40 days and they might well have the edge being more "match-fit" to steal a footballing term.

All of them have had some success at course, distance or both. Fortified Bay is the only one yet to win here, but has won at Newcastle over three miles. Of the remaining eight runners, all bar Donna's Double and Readysteadybeau are former course and distance winners, with Niceandeasy winning this race last year and Cash To Ash winning the year before! Donna's Double dis win a 2m4½f chase here whilst Readysteadybeau has won a 2m5½f chase here and a 3m½f hurdle at Haydock. As for their records over fences on similar ground conditions and class, we always have Instant Expert...

...which as well as highlighting lots of great course form does ask some questions about several of these. This race was a Class 4 contest when Niceandeasy and Cash To Ask won it recently and neither have won a Class 3 chase yet and are a combined 0 from 11, but that's not as bad as Strong Economy & Glittering Love's total of 1 win from 16. These numbers put all four at risk here and Cash To Ash's record over this trip is pretty poor too at 2 from 16, as is the 1 from 7 scored by Crixus's Escape, whose form has been so bad (11 without a win) that he's now some 22lbs lower than his last winning mark.

In terms of the ideal pace profile here, we're looking for a horse that likes to be up with the pace if this is anything to go by...

...with those running in mid-div or further back winning just 6 of 108, as opposed to 20 front-end winners from 105 winning almost 3.5 times as often and that's going to suit the likes of Just Don't Know, Fortified Bay, Cash To Ash and Readysteadybeau, based on recent outings...

Summary

The pace angle is going to be so important here and I think the top four on the pace chart is the place to start. My first job, of course, is to get rid of one of them for my top three shortlist and it's a pretty easy call to eject Fortified Bay from proceedings based on his inconsistency (3 x PU in his last 7)and the fact he's top weight.

So, we have three and whilst Cash to Ash is still in my mix, I don't see him repeating his 2021 success this time. He's only 2 from 23 over fences but has made the frame 11 times (47.8%) showing that he's essentially a near-miss type generally worth backing E/W or for a place, but not a winner. He's currently 7/1 here, which is borderline for my own E/W confort zone, but you can make your own call on the price.

All of which brings us to Just Don't Know and Readysteadybeau, who'll both be very prominent here and there's not much between them, but Just Don't Know runs off the same mark as LTO (Ready is up 2lbs), JDK scored slightly better on Instant Expert, drops in class and is a former course and distance winner and I think that his current (4.25pm) 5/1 price with both Bet365 & Hills represents better value than his rivals 5/2 & 3/1, so it'd be Just Don't Know for me here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 25/02/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers solely on the 5-year course form filter as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.35 Fairyhouse
  • 1.57 Chepstow
  • 2.05 Lingfield
  • 3.07 Chepstow
  • 5.10 Chelmsford
  • 5.20 Kempton

Jockey Stan Sheppard has a good record on Tom Lacey's horses at Chepstow and they team up in just one handicap on Saturday, a race that also happens to be on the free list. Now, it's a bigger field than I'm generally comfortable with (12 is my usual limit), but let's see how Operation Manna might get on in the 3.07 Chepstow and whether there's also an E/W bet or two to be had from this 15-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap hurdle. The trip should be just over 2m7½f, but a 200 yard rail movement has extended it to 3m½f on good to soft ground that is quicker in places and is being watered to stop it turning "good"...

FORM : Ballybegg, Kings Keeper, Top of the Bill and The Kniphand all won last time out. Operation Manna is three from five and Kings Keeper/Top of the Bill/Take Your Time/The Kniphand are all two from five with the latter on a hat-trick. Surrey Quest/Bells of Peterboro/My Bobby Dazzler/Thanksforthehelp are all winless in five. LTO winner Ballybegg has failed to complete three of five and Southfield Harvest/Take Your Time have two incomplete runs.

CLASS : Bells of Peterboro is down one and Bear Ghylls, Ballybegg, Southfield Harvest, Kings Keeper, Surrey Quest, Take Your Time, My Bobby Dazzler and Thanksforthehelp are all up one class. Top of the Bill, The Kniphand and Operation Manna are all up two classes with just three (Jon Snow, Galileo Silver & Dubrovnik Harry) running at this Class 2 last time.

WHAT'S NEW : Top weight Jon Snow makes a handicap debut on his first start for George Baker, Bear Ghylls is in first-time cheekpieces as are Surrey Quest & Thanksforthehelp (who runs for the first time since wind surgery) whilst Southfield Harvest is blinkered for the first time

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Southfield Harvest (2m bumper) and Operation Manna (2m4f hurdle) are former course winners and Jon Snow, Galileo Silver, Southfield Harvest & The Kniphand have all won over a similar trip to this one whilst Bells of Peterboro, Toip of the Bill and Take Your Time are all former course and distance winners.

LAST RUN : Take Your Time has had a 12-week rest, Top weight Jon Snow has been off nearly five months and it has been eight months since Galileo Silver was last seen. He was in fine form, though when signing off with a run reading 11P2212. The rest of this field have all raced at least once in the last two months, but all have had a fortnight or more to get over their latest effort.

Suitability for expected conditions is quickly and easily shown via Instant Expert...

There's not actually masses of experience of these conditions when all is said and done with Bells of Peterboro's eleven attempts at similar trips the most we've got in any section. Some have, of course, fared better than others and Top of the Bill is probably the eye-catcher on wins to runs. I suspect that many of these will look better if we just considered place form...

...which might help to form an E/W bet later. Weight might be an issue for many of these with seven of them carrying 6-9lbs more than their last win with one at +4lbs and another at +5lbs. Take Your Time, however is now 3lbs lower and represents a yard that won this race in 2021 (& 2016), whilst last year's race was won by the trainer of Top of the Bill and The Kniphand.

Past large field races over this going/course/distance have favoured those brave enough to attempt to set the pace and those keeping handy to the pace have also done well here...

...which based on the more recent efforts from this field...

...suggests we might well have a proper battle on our hands with so many of these preferring to race prominently with only Top of the Bill and out and out hold-up horse.

Summary

The Kniphand looks like the 'form' horse here and he's two from two at the trip, he's going to be up with the pace and despite being raised another 7lbs here for his most recent win, that might not be enough to arrest his progress. He's still unexposed after five starts and there's probably more to come from him. He'd be the one to beat in my book, but 5/1 in a 15-runner race hardly sets the pulse racing.

Of the rest, there are a few that I like the look of ie Dubrovnik Harry, Bells of Peterboro, Galileo Silver, feature horse Operation Manna, Kings Keeper and Top of The Bill. In a race where the bookies are paying four places, I'd not be surprised if the four placers are in those seven I've listed, but I wouldn't back The Kniphand or Operation Manna at just 5/1 and I'd be concerned about Top of the Bill trying to come from the back of the pack, if there was plenty of early pace.

This leaves me with possible E/W bets. I'm not sure which Dubrovnik Harry turns up here, though. If he races prominently, he would be a decent pick at 11's, but he has been held up in two of his last three and I wouldn't want that here.  Kings Keeper has never been beyond 2m4.5f and although he stayed on well last time out, he's up in class, trip and 6lbs, so I' want more than 17/2 about him.

And so, almost by default, we're at the 12/1 Bells of Peterboro and the 9/1 Galileo Silver. Both will be up with the pace and both are attractively enough priced for an E/W bet. Bells wasn't disgraced last time out and this former course and distance winner now drops in class. He had a full line of green on the place side of Instant Expert and could well be worth a 12/1 play. The fly in the ointment with Galileo Silver is a 224-day absence, but he was in great form last winter and travels/jumps well. He has finished fourth and second after breaks of 187 & 190 days respectively, so the lay-off might not be an issue and a 9/1 bet might just see a small profit from the race.