Tag Archive for: TS report

Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/03/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 3.35 Lingfield
  • 3.55 Musselburgh
  • 6.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted a handful of trainers in good 30-day form but just one other runner elsewhere...

As you can see, the Geegeez-sponsored yard of Anthony Honeyball is absolutely flying right now and he sends three runners to Wincanton, but the racing on Wednesday as whole is pretty poor and I'd be wary of putting too much cash at risk anywhere.

But for this column, the show must go on, so I've just selected a competitive-looking A/W sprint with a few relatively in-form runners competing to land the near-£8,000 prize for the 2.30 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a left handed 6f on standard polytrack...

Expert Agent, Two Desserts, Daytona Lady and Rossmore nation all won last time out, whilst Girlswannahavefun and Talamanca both won two starts ago. the latter also won five starts ago, but Beautiful Sunshine and Muy Muy Guapo are both 4-race maidens, but BS has been a runner-up in three of his four starts. Bottom weight Rossmore Nation is the only class mover, stepping up one grade.

Two Desserts makes a handicap debut and Muy Muy Guapo has a second bite of the cherry. Half of these (Expert Agent, Daytona Lady, Talamanca and Rossmore Nation) have already won over 6f, but none of the field have won here at Lingfield. Mind you, only three have been here and two have made the frame.

Talamanca runs for the first time since mid-October and Expert Agent has had an eight-week break, but the other half dozen have all been seen in the last 40 days with Rossmore Nation's win last Tuesday the most recent of all runs. In addition to our four (3 on A/W) 6f winners, we have four winners on standard going and four Class 5 A/W winners and a couple of runners quite heavily penalised for their LTO wins...

Talamanca looks the most unsuccessful exposed horse there and with a 0 from 6 record on the A/W, you've got to think that this is a pipe-opener after a long break so he can be ready for the Flat season with him being 3 from 3 over 6f on turf. One of the two fillies, Daytona lady looks best on those numbers and I'm not too keen on the three with lines of red. of the five with green, Expert Agent and Rossmore Nation will find this tougher than their LTO wins now that they're up 8lbs and 6lbs respectively and with Rossmore Nation also up in class, he'll need to be on his A-game.

He's drawn in stall 8, which in fairness, doesn't have a great record in such contests...

...but considering it's a short race with a bend, there's not as much of a bias as you might expect and stalls 4 & 5 where you might think would be a good starting point, haven't been great either. If you could cherry pick, you'd want box 2 where Two Desserts will come from. he's also likely to want to get out sharpish, if recent efforts are to be relied upon...

...and those races above have lended themselves to early pace...

...which makes this pace/draw heatmap unsurprisingly lop-sided...

...and with our field's average pace scores overlaid...

...you'd probably want to be on Two Desserts and/or Talamanca.

Summary

Looking back to pace/draw with are so important in these non-straight sprints, it was Two Desserts and Talamanca ho caught the eye, but the latter is coming back from a 133-day absence, hasn't run on the A/W for over six months and his record in this sphere reads no win, two places from six efforts. Two Desserts, on the other hand, is in good form and won last time out. He's unexposed, isn't too harshly treated on handicap debut and should go really well at a big-looking 15/2 with Bet365, ideal for an E/W bet if nothing else.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes Expert Agent (who won easily LTO) and Rossmore Nation to be heavily involved. Both are likely to go off sub-5/1 and if running like he did last time, Expert Agent could well be the one to beat, even from an indifferent pace/draw perspective.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/02/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.00 Doncaster
  • 4.20 Ludlow
  • 4.35 Punchestown
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

...but as Sod's Law often prevails, none of my TS qualifiers are in a 'free' race so I'm going to see how trainers Henry Daly and Venetia Williams get on again each other in the first of their two duels, as a small but competitive field is assembled for the 3.45 Ludlow, a 6-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (amateur jockeys) over a right handed three miles on good ground...

HEAD TO THE STARS has only won 3 of 22 over fences to date, but that includes 3 from 10 here at Ludlow and more specifically 3 from 8 over course and distance, but hasn't performed well since a runner-up finish here almost a year. He was beaten here by 27 lengths in late March and beaten by 34 lengths at Aintree in mid-May. After a break, he hit the 2nd fence at Aintree and unseated at the third in mid-November and made a bad mistake here almost seven weeks ago and finished th of 6. Conditions will suit him, but he needs to pick his jumping back up.

ONE TRUE KING won a bumper here on debut just over three years ago, won over 2m7f at Market Rasen (hurdles) and over 2m6½f in a Class 3 chase at the same venue last September, but has struggled since, going down by 49, 46, 21 and 21 lengths. His last run was just four days ago in a Class 1 race at Ascot, so he's down two classes here, but possibly still too high in the weights.

THE BIG LENSE ran his best race for some time when a runner-up over 2m4f at Leicester last time out, but since winning over 3m1f at Kilbeggan in July 2021, his record at this kind of trip reads FPP and he has failed to complete five of his last ten outings.

COO STAR SIVOLA certainly isn't the same horse that won the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival in 2018 but did run well back at HQ in April 2021, when only a length and a half behind the winner of a Class 2, 3m2f chase. He was then off track for 20 months, during which time he moved yards, but has shown very little in two starts for Venetia Williams, going down by 64 lengths in November and by 35 lengths last month, but down in class and weight here, could he have one more decent run in him?

VOLCANO was a runner-up here over course and distance two starts/nine weeks ago when held off by just a neck well clear of the rest of the field and ran better than the bare result suggests last time out. He was, indeed, only 5th of 13 and beaten by some 16 lengths but was running from 10lbs out of the weightin a Class 1 handicap. He's that 10lbs better off here and down two classes, so could be the one to beat.

SEIGNEUR DES AS has yet to win in the UK after 2 efforts over hurdles and 3 over fences and he was 0 from 8 in France, but ran his best race to date last time out. He was rununing for the first time since a wind op and managed to finish 2nd of 4, denied on the line by a nose when 6lb out of the weights. He's 3lbs out here, but that should hap him be more competitive and another decent effort is expected.

Composite relevant chase form is highlighted by Instant Expert...

...where doubts are raised about Head To The Stars on good ground, as he'd definitely prefer it softer, but is excellent here at Ludlow. The Big Lense hasn't won at the trip yet, but he is 1 from 4 at 3m1f, but is much better at 2m4f and Volcano's record at Class 3 isn't great, but he's too good for Class 4, he's in decent form and will have no issues with the trip.

Small fields can be a bit cagey when it comes to pace, but if they all run as they have been doing of late...

...I'd suggest that Volcano will be the one leading them along with possibly/probably Coo Star Sivola next in line. The rest of the field generally seem content to sit things out until later, but I think such tactics might well play into Volcano's hands...

Summary

I've liked Volcano all the way through the process and there's only his poor record at this grade that could possibly be an issue. That said, he's in great form and is too good for Class 4. Only Hills have priced this up, but he's available at 10/3 and that's fair enough, I think. 11/4 or 3/1 is where I'd have been, so he's the one I'd prefer to be with at the expense of  Seigneur D'As who is ready to win, but always seems to find one (or more) just too good on the day.

Mind you, any of these could win here, but the lack of pace amongst the pack might be their undoing, unless one of them is brave is enough to put it to Volcano.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Dundalk
  • 3.00 Hereford
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

And I think I'll see how course 5-year specialist Paul Nicholls gets on with his 5yo Pleasant Man in our 'free' jumps race, the 3.00 Hereford, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m4f on good ground...

My initial thoughts are that this would be a three-horse race between our featured runner Pleasant Man, Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan and in a race with no LTO winners, their runner-up finishes are the best result on offer, whilst Bucks Dream was third LTO. Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan both won two starts ago and of the rest, only Toronto has win in their card-visible form line.

Pleasant Man is up one class here, as are the bottom two on the card, Bucks Dream and Beannaigh Do with the latter making just a second handicap appearance, whilst Highland Frolic and Cabrakan are on handicap debuts. Top weight Forecast is the only previous course winner, having landed a 2m3½f contest here, whilst Bashers Reflection won over 2m3f at Warwick. Elsewhere not much to write home about with regards to course/distance form. All eleven have raced in the past seven weeks or so, with Pleasant Man seen most recently when going down by half a length at Taunton last Tuesday.

Instant Expert backs up this lack of relevant course/distance form and actually paints a pretty dismal picture of how this field has performed under these conditions...

Not good at all, bar Toronto's going/class form, but thankfully the place stats do at least give me something to work with...

At this point, I need to be pretty ruthless and get rid of some of these runners, so I'm going rule out Forecast (class), Astrophysicist (going/class) and Beannaigh Do (generally!), giving me eight to choose from and their recent pace profiles are as follows...

...suggesting Cabrakan as the likely pace-maker with Malaita and probably Highland Frolic tucked in behind. Bashers Reflection does have a 4, but he also has a 1 and he does generally run in mid-division or further back. Vengeance and Toronto look like being our held-up back markers in a race where unusually for an NH contest, there's no great pace bias...

Yes, mid-div runners have fared worse than the others, but had one more of the 41 runners won, they'd also have a win % of  9.76% so I'm not entirely convinced that any running style is that much better than the others here.

Summary

Not all races can be worked out to a degree of clarity using the toolbox and when that happens, like here, you've two choices. One is to just walk away and look at the next race, the other is to go off recent form and your 'gut feeling'.

Walking away is probably the best option/advice here, but if I was to see the process out to a conclusion and abet, I'd have little choice but to go back to my original trio of  featured runner Pleasant Man, Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan, whilst having a second look at Toronto, due to his Instant Expert numbers.

Pleasant Man has finished 322 in three starts this year and is up 2lbs after recent runner-up defeats by a shirt head and half a length, but he is up in class here. Bashers Reflection won by half a length on New Year's Eve and was hit by a 9lb rise. He has since been a 5.5 length runner-up and is up another 2lbs, whilst Cabrakan has finished 212 in his three starts over hurdles with a LCass 2win and a pair of Class 4 runner-up finishes, but he was beaten by 15 lengths last time, racing 3f further than he's gone before and certainly hasn't been treated leniently by the handicapper off an opening mark of 106, just 1lb lower than Pleasant Man and a pound heavier than Basher's Reflection.

Based on that, I'd have to agree with the bookies by saying that I think the 11/4 Pleasant Man should win here ahead of Cabrakan (generally 3/1) and Basher's Reflection who is as big as 6/1 with PP. If he drifts any, he could be a live E/W play.

As for Toronto, he's available at 25's with bet365 (3 places0 and 22's with Skybet for four places but on recent form, that would be a bit of a stretch. He won over 1m7f and over 2m½f on his first and third efforts over hurdles, but since that second win in May he has struggled going down by 19L, 30L, 34L and 28L off decreasing marks of 123, 117, 113 and 109 LTO. He's down another 4lbs here and if regaining last summer's form, could get involved, but he's also another yet to travel beyond 2m1f.

If you want an E/W punt on Toronto, please don't throw too much money at him!



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.15 Fairyhouse
  • 1.45 Fairyhouse
  • 2.30 Ludlow
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...and I think I'll see how the in-form yard gets on against the 1-year course specialist in the 7.00 Kempton, where Olympic Quest and Bernadine from my TS report are two of the nine runners tackling a Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a right handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

An unusual race here in that females outnumber the males with runners 1, 5, 7 & 9 being the boys (only #5 Fully Deployed has been gelded) and it's a race lacking in experience. They've only raced 44 times between them so far and of that 44, numbers 1, 6 & 7 (Outrace, Bernadine & Greavsie) account for 24 with the other six runners out just three or four times. The three most experienced runners are the only previous winners too and all have won here at Kempton already.

Outrace & Bernadine both won over course and distance last time out, whilst Greavsie was a three-quarter length runner-up over track & trip. He did, however, win here over 7f two months ago and has won over a mile at Ffos Las back in September. I suspect that this might become a three-horse race, as the rest of the field haven't even made the frame in twenty combined starts. The three 'most likely' contenders all ran at this grade LTO, as did Fully Deployed but the other five all drop in class and it's a handicap debut for Olympic Quest and Paco's Pride, whilst Fully Deployed and Top of the Class tackle a handicap for just the second time.

The latter has been off the track the longest at 127 days, but aside from bottom-weight Double Down's 10-week absence, the rest have all been seen in the last 25 days with both Outrace and Greavsie running here a week ago. It's the second time in a hood for Olympic Quest and a second race since being gelded for Fully Deployed, whilst the bottom two on the card, Martini Lodge & Double Down will be sporting new headgear in the form of cheekpieces and a visor respectively.

We know that we're not going to get much from Instant Expert, but it's useful to see how many times the field has tackled similar conditions...

And at this point, Greavsie would look the weakest of the more experienced trio. Whilst of those with no data, Top of the Class has only raced at 6/7f in Class 3-5 contests and Paco's Pride has three 7f runs at Class 4/5 to her name as does Martini Lodge.

In past similar contests here at Kempton, stalls 4, 6 and 9 have an inexplicably poor record, but I'm not convinced that there's a huge draw bias here...

...which means that the actual pace of the race might be the aspect to focus on. All nine have had at least three runs to date, so we'll hopefully have enough data to see a pattern forming as to their running style(s)...

...where it looks like Outrace will attempt to set the fractions from stall 4, attempting to get across the likes of Fully Deployed and Double Down in boxes 3 & 1 respectively. Conversely Greavsie looks like he will dropped in at the back for a late surge, but the pace stats for those races above suggest he'd be better off stepping up a gear somewhat earlier...

Summary

I'd be surprised if this race didn't go to one of the three more experienced runners Outrace, Bernadine & Greavsie. Of the three Greavsie has looked weakest on form, Instant Expert and pace and I prefer Outrace over Bernadine on the very same grounds. If none of the less exposed runners break into the top three, then I'd expect an Outrace-Bernadine-Greavsie 1-2-3 but sadly the market agrees with Outrace installed as a 3/1 favourite with my other pair at 4's.

 

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Exeter
  • 2.17 Dundalk
  • 4.02 Dundalk
  • 4.30 Exeter

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on 1 year form and another two runners on 30-day form...

...and as the last of those three 'possibles', Oscars Moonshine, runs in the last of our 'free' races, it makes sense to have a quick look at the 4.30 Exeter, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Sacre Coeur won last time out, Top of the Bill won two starts ago and Ocasrs Moonshine, Sporting Ace and Longshanks have all also won at least one in five. Sporting Ace looks the most consistent on results, whilst Longshanks has failed to complete his last three runs, Padleyourowncanoe hasn't finished either of his last two and Buckhorn George has been pulled up in three of his last five.

Top of the Bill, Astigar, Oscars Moonshine and Longshanks all drop a class, whilst top-weight Padleyourowncanoe drops two levels for his yard debut after leaving the Skeltons. Top of the Bill wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst Astigar has a second crack at a handicap after a 20 length defeat at Cheltenham.

Oscars Moonshine has won here over course and distance with Padleyourowncanoe (2m1f hurdle), Longshanks (2m3f chase) and Chloe's Court (2m6f hurdle) also previously successful at this track, whilst Top of the Bill has won over three miles at Chepstow.

None of the field are turned out quickly and none are coming off long breaks with all having run in the last 24-82 days. We know that we've four course winners, but Instant Expert also highlights four good to soft NH winners, seven Class 4 winners and five who have scored at 2m6f to 3m...

Padleyourowncanoe has a reasonable set of numbers there, but would prefer it softer and comes here on a run of 12 defeats stretching back almost two years, hence him now being 13lbs lower than his last win.

Top of the Bill has a win and a place from 6 over hurdles after placing in four bumpers. He did win over 3m at Chepstow on good to soft in December and although 5lbs higher than that win, he's a class lower.

Sacre Coeur finally got off the mark over hurdles in the UK last time out, but has won over hurdles and fences in France. He's only up 3lbs for that win, but I am slightly concerned at his failure to get round in four of twelve starts.

Astigar is lightly raced under today's conditions, but has a line of red on Instant Expert after failed to win any of five starts. His best run came when second here a year ago, but that was over a trip some 5.5f shorter than today and he struggled to see 2m5f out last time.

Oscars Moonshine has 3 wins and a place from ten over hurdles, but the three wins came in a 12-day purple patch in October 2020, after having failed to make the frame in his first five career starts. He was off a year after those wins and was a runner-up on his return in October '21. He then didn't race for 11 months and has been beaten by 15L and 17L in two races this season. He gets the trip but isn't in form.

Sporting Ace looks the one to beat for me so far and has run consistently well over the last 13 months, finishing 21 in two bumpers and then 11223 over hurdles. Trip is no issue with a 3m win under his belt and a mark of 115 doesn't look stiff. Down 3f today which will also help.

Longshanks is 1 from 5 over hurdles and 1 from 8 over fences and was pulled up & then unseated his rider in his last two chases, before reverting to hurdles at Wincanton in January. He was in the process of going well before falling two out and this inability to complete allied with a step up in trip gives me grounds for concern.

What About Time won on hurdles debut (2m4f) at Uttoxeter in Mid-November 2020 and then had almost a year off followed by two indifferent runs inside a month. Another 11 month break followed and he returned to finish just 8th of 12 at Ludlow last November, beaten by 22 lengths, but showed some positive signs when an 8.5 length runner-up on Boxing Day at Huntingdon. Has potential but lacks consistency.

Buckhorn George hasn't completed six of his last eight starts including a fall here in November 2021 and five times pulled up, He was second at Fontwell almost a year ago, but that run looks to be the exception to the norm in a run of results reading PFPP2P4P (the 4 was 4th of 5, beaten by 19 lengths)

Chloe's Court won here over 2m6f on soft ground just over two years ago, but has only won a total of 2 races from 25 attempts. Her record at Class 4 is abject and she comes here off the back of a 40+ lengths defeat at Hereford.

So far, the three I'm most interested in are (alphabetically) Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill and if recent outings are anything to go by, Sacre Coeur and Top of the Bill will have to launch their bids for victory from the back of the field, whereas Sporting Ace is expected to be one of the front-runners...

...in a type of race that has served front-runners very well indeed...

Summary

Alphabetically Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill are the three I'd want against the field here and with Sporting Ace being in the best progressive form of the three and also having the most suitable pace profile, he'd be the one to beat in my eyes. He's currently 9/2 with Bet365 with the other pair at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively in a tight market.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/01/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.23 Fairyhouse
  • 2.35 Warwick
  • 2.45 Catterick
  • 3.00 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated just one UK qualifier as follows...

30 day form...

...and as the in-form Bolsover Bill runs in a 'free' race, it makes sense for me to take a quick look at the 2.45 Catterick, where I suspect he'll be well fancied to land this 10-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over the thick end of 2m3½f on soft ground...

As seen on the TS report graphic above, Bolsover Bill is in great form and seeks a 4-timer here, but Roccowithlove also won last time out , whilst both McGarry and Ribeye have wins in the recent form line. Dogem by Design looks the weakest on form.

Dogem was pulled up after losing touch LTO and has been beaten by 38, 43 and 74 lengths in his other three UK starts and at 3lbs out of the handicap, I'm happy to cross him off my list on his chasing debut.

The majority of this field all raced at this Class 5 level last time, but three of them drop down a grade; the top two in the weights, Crack du Ninian & Where's Hector along with last year's winner of this race, Relkadam.

That win last year of 8lbs higher than today makes Relkadam one of just two previous course and distance winners, along with featured runner, Bolsover Bill. The only other course or distance success from this bunch was Roccowithlove's win here over 3m1½f thirteen days ago for his first chase success.

I've already discounted Dogem By Design and at 63 days, he's been off the track the longest with the others all having raced in the last month; Relkadam and Roccowithlove have been sighted in the last fortnight.

Dogem by Design is on his second handicap and we've some new headgear on show as the top two in the weights, Crack du Ninian & Where's Hector are first-time wearers of a visor and a hood respectively.

As stated above, we've three course winners (2 at C&D) on show here and we've three winners at 2m2f to 2m4f. We also have four NH winners on soft ground and six with at least one previous Class 5 success, according to Instant Expert...

...which as you might have expected at Class 5 is awash with red! Bolsover Bill and Roccowithlove are the two obvious standouts and warning bells have started to ring about En Meme Temps (going/trip), Relkadam (going/trip, although he won this last year) and Ribeye (class), but it's highly possible that some of these might appear in a better light on place form...

Hmmm, yes, a little but Ribeye's time is up for today, I fear. A win and two places from sixteen career starts doesn't fill me with confidence about his chances on chase debut, so he's now a discard too and if we've now just got the top eight, I have some concerns about McGarry on soft ground with showers forecasted.

I know from looking at Bolsover Bill's recent wins that he likes to set the tempo of the race, but here's how his rivals have approached their last four outings too...

...suggesting that top weight Crack du Ninian might well keep him company up top, whilst Where's Hector and Dogem by Design look like they'll be held up, as might last year's winner, Relkadam who actually raced in mid-division for that race. Our Pace Analyser for this race...

...says that hold-up horses are likely to struggle to win/place and that horses on the sharp end of proceedings fare best of all.

Summary

It's hard to ignore the claims of featured horse Bolsover Bill, isn't it? He's in great form, his yard's in good form, he scores well on Instant Expert and on pace. He's also 2 from 2 under today's jockey and if we return briefly to Instant Expert and look just at chase form...

...he has to be the one, doesn't he? I know he's up 10lbs for a pair of convincing victories, but I think there might be well be a fair bit more to come for this 6 yr old. Nobody's getting rich off his 11/4 early price from Bet365, but I actually thought he might be a bit shorter.

That early market has McGarry at the same price, but a lack of chasing experience and his poor soft ground form make that price a bit skinny in my opinion and I think Roccowithlove might pose a threat. he's 11/2, which isn't long enough for an E/W bet in my opinion, whilst it wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever if Relkadam put another big run in and at 8/1 he could be an E/W possible, especially if your bookie pays four places.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 18/01/23

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Our free feature for Wednesday is the Trainer Stats (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

We also have our usual smattering of free fully functional racecards, but after Newbury's cancellation they just cover...

  • 3.10 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Southwell

My settings for the TS report...

...have sadly generated no horses to look at, so my dislike of Irish racing leaves me with Hobson's Choice, the 6.45 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 5, Fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Finery & Falesia Beach both won LTO and Cailin Saoirse made the frame, beaten by just two necks. She has, however, won two of her last four, butr the rest of the field is winless in five.

Divine Connection and Cailin Saoirse both step up from Class 6, whilst Finery and Theotherside step down from classes 4 and 3 respectively. Falesia Beach wears blinkers for the first time and the entire field has raced in the last six weeks with four of them (Finery, Queen of Burgundy, Divine Connection & Cailin Saoirse) already 'out' this year.

Instant Expert, our collateral form tool, says that all bar Theotherside and Grey Belle have won the A/W previously and of the five past A/W winners, three have won at Class 5, two have won here at Southwell and all five have scored over this trip. Theotherside does have a Class 5 win on turf, but Grey Belle's sole career win from fourteen starts was over a mile on turf...

LTO winner Finery's last seven runs have been on the A/W and she has 3 wins and 2 places from those efforts over the last four months and she's one of just two course and distance winners, the other being Falesia Beach. Finery is up 5lbs for last Tuesday's comfortable C&D success, but she clearly looks the one to beat on both recent form and Instant Expert. Theotherside has struggled here at Southwell, Grey Belle just doesn't win often enough and Divine Connection has too many going/distance failures to her name for my liking.

We have limited draw/pace data for Southwell with the tapeta track being little more than a year old, so we've made some minor tweaks to the filter parameters to get some data to work with as follows...

The basic premise here is that the higher the draw the better for win purposes with mid-draws best for places, but a quick look at stall-by-stall data...

...suggests there's not much in it and the stall 3-6 grouping has fared best. With regards to pace, again we've used the same parameters and again, there's not a great deal in it...

...and the lack of major bias for draw or pace is reflected by how much green there is on the pace/draw heat map...

Our field's last four outings have been run as follows...

...suggesting that Finery and Queen of Burgundy from stalls 2 and 6 might be the ones setting the fractions with Cailin Saoirse the likely back marker and when we put those average pace scores and the draw onto the heat map...

...the four most likely to succeed would appear to be Finery, Falesia Beach, Queen of Burgundy and Divine Connection

Summary

I'm of the opinion that in relatively small fields with little/no bias for draw and/or pace, then the best horses generally win and the two to beat here should be Finery and Falesia Beach and probably in that order.

That then leaves Queen of Burgundy and Divine Connection to fight it out for a place and heat map aside, the latter really doesn't tick any boxes.

Sadly the market has the same 1-2-3 as we've arrived at and they're best priced at 9/4, 7/2 and 4/1 respectively.



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