Tag Archive for: warwick horse racing tips and trends

Saturday TV Trends: 7th Feb 2026

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We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick.

The Denman Chase, William Hill Hurdle and William Hill Game Spirit are the feature races at Newbury, while the ITV cameras also head to Warwick to take in three more races that include the Kingmaker Novices' Chase.

As always, we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends.

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:35 – William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl3 3m52y ITV

18/20 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
16/20 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
15/20 – Carried 10-13 or more
15/20 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
15/20 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
13/20 – Aged 7 or younger
13/20 – Carried 11-0 or more
11/20 – Unplaced last time out
11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/20 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/20 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (1 winner)
7/20 – Aged 7 years-old
3/20 – French bred
3/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Winning favourites (1 in last 9)
3/20 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Trained by Alan King
7 of the last 8 winners aged 6-8
5 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

2:10 – William Hill Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

18/22 – Rated 150+
18/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/22 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
17/22 – Placed favourites
17/22 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/22 – Aged 8 or younger
13/22 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
12/22 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
11/22 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
10/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Irish bred
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
8/22 – French bred
6/22 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/22 – Returned a double-figure price
4/22 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 in total)
8 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 years-old
Just one winner aged 11+ since 2000
Venetia Williams has won 2 of the last 10
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

2:45 – William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV

18/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Placed favourites
16/20 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
16/20 – Aged 8 or younger
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
15/20 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
14/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/20 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (6 winners)
11/20 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
11/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – French bred
6/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/20 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/20 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/20 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 5)
2/20 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Master Chewy won the race in 2025 (Libberty Hunter 2nd)
Since 1953 only 2 winners aged 5 (Don’t Be Shy, 2006, Master Minded, 2008)

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

3:20 – William Hill Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

23/23 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
22/23 – Aged 7 or younger
20/23 – Rated 130 or higher
20/23 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
19/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/23 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
18/23 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
18/23 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
18/23 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
17/23 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
14/23 – Placed favourites
13/23 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
12/23 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/23 – Irish bred
8/23 - Won last time out
8/23 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 19)
7/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 7 times in all)
4/23 – Owned by JP McManus (including last two years)
3/23 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/23 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 12)
2/23 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 16)
2/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 13)
2/23 - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/23 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
28 of the last 29 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The last 5 winners aged 6 or 7
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

 

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:15 – Get The Best Odds With Oddschecker Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV

9/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
9/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
5/10 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had run at Warwick before
4/10 – Rated between 140 and 149
Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 11 runnings

1:50 – Bet Smarter With Oddschecker Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

12/13 – Aged 7 or younger
12/13 – Won over 2m fences before
11/13 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/13 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
8/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Rated between 137-147
3/13 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 9 winners have been 6 year-olds
Last 4 winners have been odds-on
8 of the last 9 winners aged between 5-7
Dan Skelton (Harry Skelton) have won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown and 2024 meeting was called off

2:25 – Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (9yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV

Just one past running
Le Milos (5/4 fav) won this in 2025
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 25% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 38% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track

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Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 10th Jan 2026

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Some nice jumping cards to look forward to this Saturday from Warwick and Kempton, with nine races being shown LIVE on ITV across the three tracks - weather permitting.

The clear highlights on the day are the Grade 3 Classic Chase at Warwick– a race trainer Paul Nicholls has won three times since 2006, and at Kempton the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle - a prize that the Nicky Henderson yard have landed three times since 2013 - is their showcase event.

As normal, here at Geegeez, we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2:05 – Coral “New" Horse Racing Bet Builder Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

11/11 - Aged 8 or older
11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Had run at the track before
9/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/11 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
7/11 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
6/11 – Unplaced last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by James Bowen (2 of the last 4)
5 of the last 8 winners aged 8
James Bowen has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

2:40 – Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

9/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
8/10 - Aged 8 or older
6/10 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Had won over fences at the track
5 of the last 6 winners aged 8
Harry Cobden has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2022, 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2020, 2021 and 2023
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Pic D’Orhy won this race in 2023
Banbridge won this race in 2024

 

3:17 – Coral Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

23/23 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
20/23 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
20/23 – Aged 7 or younger
18/23 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
17/23 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
17/23 – Irish (11) or French (6) bred
16/23 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
16/23 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
14/23 – Carried 10-11 or less
13/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/23 – Aged 6 years-old
11/23 – Placed favourites
9/23 – Won last time out
9/23 – Had run at Kempton before (6 won)
5/23 -  Winning favourites
4/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 12)
3/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/23 – Trained by Dan Skelton (last two)
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (42 runnings) 36 winners have been aged 7 or younger
A claiming jockey has won 7 of the last 11 runnings
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
Note: the 2006 running was a dead heat between Rayshan & Buck Whaley and run at Carlisle

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1:15 – William Hill Racing Bet Builder Handicap Chase Cl4 (5yo+ 0-110) 2m4f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Jane Williams has a 33% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 29% strike-rate with her chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brendan Powell has a 31% strike-rate riding over fences at the track

1.52 – William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Hampton Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

16/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/16 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
15/16 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
14/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/16 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Aged 7 years-old (last 3)
11/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 4)
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
2/16 – Trained by Dan Skelton (last 2)

2:25 – William Hill Racing Each Way Extra Handicap Hurdle Cl4 (4yo+ 0-110) 2m ITV4

Just one last running
Donnacha won the race in 2024
Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 29% SR with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 26% SR with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Warren Greatrex is 0-21 with his hurdles at the track

2:55 – William Hill Half A Mill Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV

17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
15/19 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/19 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
14/19 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
13/19 – Officially rated between 129-140
13/19 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
13/19 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
13/19 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
12/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
12/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/19 – Favourites placed
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price
8/19 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
6/19 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/19 – Won their last race
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Trained by Alan King
3/19 – Trained by Emma Lavelle (3 of the last 11)
11 of the last 14 Classic Chase winners aged 9 or younger
Just two winning favourites in the last 19 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 10/1

3:32 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m 1f ITV4

18/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
16/18 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
15/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/18 – Officially rated between 125-142
14/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
11/18 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/18 – Placed favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/18 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
Glimpse Of Gala won the race in 2023

Wetherby Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV) 

*ABANDONED*

1:25 – William Hill 1461 Chase (Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) 2m 31/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 21% SR with his chasers at the track
Trainer Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith have a 21% SR with their chasers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 21% SR with his chasers at the track
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 20% SR with his chasers at the track

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