Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/03/24
The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where Lough Leane would be of most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...
- 2.45 Wetherby
- 3.15 Wetherby
- 3.45 Wetherby
Lough Leane is definitely worth a look at, but having won his last three, I'd guess he's going to be fairly short in the market, so I'll revert to the 'free' races, all of which have at least one runner on The Shortlist too and the best of the three races to analyse is likely to be the last of them, as Shortlist 11pts Shighness takes on five rivals in the 3.45 Wetherby, a Class 3, 5yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 3m 87yds on soft ground...
TOP OF THE BILL had a rare off-day when well beaten over 3m½f at Exeter last time out, having won his previous two efforts, both over the same course and distance. He had been raised 8lbs for the race and the assessor has relented slightly by dropping him back 2lbs here. If that run was a one-off, he'll be right in the mix here.
COLLECTORS ITEM takes a drop in class here in a bid to arrest a run of seven defeats, three over hurdles and four over fences. He hasn't managed to make the frame over fences yet and was well beaten last time out. He was a decent hurdler, so maybe it's just taking him a while to adjust, but others make more appeal to me here.
DONNY BOY won his sole bumper, won on hurdles debut and was a runner-up in successive chases in October/December last year. Ran well enough at Doncaster last time out, but was only 4th of 7, beaten by over 8 lengths and now has a 52-day layoff to contend with.
LORD OF KERAK is the only LTO winner in the field, but that was a walkover at Leicester 11 days ago, where he just had to jump the fences and trot round. Prior to that, he was a runner-up in two of his last three races and is now on his lowest chasing mark. He's not an obvious winner, but has made the frame in half of his races.
CERENDIPITY had no joy in a pair of bumpers, but won at 2m3½f over hurdles 14 months ago. His recent chase form was good (313) last winter before being pulled up at Haydock and then falling at Doncaster prior to only finishing third of five last time out. He's genuine enough, but this is a major step up in trip that will test his unproven stamina.
SHIGHNESS wears cheekpieces for the first time here, as she edged right when beaten by 11 lengths at Carlisle a month ago. She had been running well prior to that race, finishing as a 2-length runner-up over this course and distance two months ago and then winning a 4-runner 3m1½f contest at Catterick at the start of February. has also ran well (14143) over this type of trip over hurdles, so the distance won't be an issue if she can run/jump a bit straighter here.
Instant Expert says that Donny Boy hasn't raced on soft ground in the last two years, (although he has ran badly in two heavy ground efforts), but that all of his rivals have won at least once...
Donny Boy certainly looks the weakest across the board here, whilst wins have also been hard to come across for Lord of Kerak over this trip and Cerendipity at this grade, but Lord of Kerak does look to be on a workable mark of 120 and his place stats look like keeping him in contention for a place...
...whereas Donny Boy & Cerendipity still look at sea in this grade. This pair are likely to take very different approaches to this race if their recent histories are anything to go by...
...as Cerendipity looks like he might be the one to challenge confirmed front-runner Top Of The Bill for the early lead, whilst Donny Boy looks like he'll have to come from the back of the pack if he wants to win here, which might be easier said than done, according to our Pace Analyser...
Summary
Donny Boy is the current (Monday 3.55pm) 11/4 favourite with Bet365 (5/2 with Hills), but unless I'm missing something that doesn't seem like great value about a horse placed just once in five starts over fences, whose 'best' work has been at Class 4 and doesn't seem suited by the pace profile. Instead, I'd prefer to be with Top of the Bill at 9/2 after winning two of his last three, he scores well on Instant Expert and will be up with the early pace, if not setting it.
The Shortlist horse Shighness should obviously relish the conditions here and give his usual running but at a best price of 4/1 would be too short for an E/W bet, even if he will be up with the pace. If I was to go for a longer-priced horse to make the frame, I'd be tempted by the 7/1 (or hopefully bigger later) offered about Lord of Kerak. He doesn't win many, but makes the frame in half of his races, has been in decent enough recent form and is on a dangerously low mark.
