Tag Archive for: Windsor Castle Stakes

Wild Tiger roars for Saeed bin Suroor in Royal Hunt Cup

Wild Tiger made it four wins from four outings on British soil after coming out of the pack to strike for Saeed bin Suroor in the Royal Hunt Cup and give Oisin Murphy a double on day two of Royal Ascot.

Metal Merchant was the first to lay down a challenge as the race entered the halfway stage down the centre of the track, but Murphy and Wild Tiger were prominent as he stalked his rival.

The Frankel gelding – a half-brother to Dubai World Cup runner-up Algiers – followed up wins at Yarmouth and Goodwood this season as he took an advantage entering the final furlong before being chased down by the fast-finishing Sonny Liston, who had occupied the runner-up berth 12 months ago.

But the line came in time for the Godolphin-owned five-year-old to come home by a head as the 11-2 joint-favourite and give the popular Bin Suroor a 39th Royal Ascot winner, and another Hunt Cup winner in quick succession after Real World in 2021. Perotto stayed on for third, a further three-quarters of length adrift.

“I always liked him. Last year he had some tiny problems and I stopped running him. I don’t think he is going to be a handicap horse, we will be looking for Group races, Group Three, but I think we will still be at a mile as he has plenty of speed,” said Bin Suroor, who these days does not have the firepower of old at his disposal.

“The numbers are down from 250 horses to 40 horses, but luckily we still have luck with some of them. Last year we had Mawj who was the 1000 Guineas winner but also she won in America, a Grade One.

“Always we are searching for something, it’s not easy. We have to keep a small number, but we have to think they could do something, it is not easy for the stable, luckily this horse has done good for us today. It’s a big thing for the stable.

“It is not easy, but we do it because we have to do it, we have no options.”

He added: “We have to keep up her enthusiasm for it because we don’t have a choice, we have to do our best with what we have, but winning a race at Royal Ascot makes it easier! I am always happy when I win a race with a class horse.

“I said to Oisin, keep out of the way of the others! I said that this was my chance to have a winner here. He’s a top-class jockey and he did it very well.”

Paying tribute to Bin Suroor, Murphy said: “Saeed provided me with my first Royal Ascot winner (Benbatl) and he’s given me another one today.

“He’s been integral in my career. I’m very grateful to him and his Highness Sheikh Mohamed, and all the people who work for Godolphin. It’s a huge operation and these successes are important.

“He got the mile well, he relaxed brilliantly. He had the perfect preparation and Saeed was very confident – he told me I’d win and I’m glad we got it done.”

Doha came with a late charge to collar favourite Hopeful in the Kensington Palace Stakes.

The daughter of dual Arc heroine Treve followed in the slipstream of the market leader before launching her challenge inside the final furlong.

Hector Crouch timed his run to perfection and the Ralph Beckett-trained filly just got up to win by a head at 10-1.

Beckett said: “It’s been a bit of a circuitous route, we dropped her back to a mile because we thought there was a winnable maiden.

“Then this spring, Royal Ascot is obviously a big deal for Sheikh Joaan and Al Shaqab. It just occurred to me that dropping back to a mile at a track like this where they go a strong gallop might just play to her strengths.

“Obviously she’d bred to get a mile and a half, and more, but it was a roll of the dice. It was worth doing and it worked out.”

Crouch added: “She’s got improvement to come, it’s only her second time trying a mile and it’s her first time on good ground. They pulled a long way clear of the third and she should be one to keep on the right side of.

“This is the biggest week in British racing and Sheikh Joaan, to ride a winner for him, he’s been a massive supporter of the sport in years gone by and it’s great that he’s having a resurgence in England. It’s a massive honour and privilege to ride for these people, and to ride them a winner on the biggest stage is what we want to be doing.

“She’s a special horse to Sheikh Joaan, who owned Treve. She hasn’t quite sparkled at stud so far so it’s lovely that one of her daughters is going on to do good things.”

The Kevin Ryan-trained Ain’t Nobody followed up his debut win at Carlisle when striking late to win the Windsor Castle Stakes.

North American raider Gabaldon ran a strong race up the near-side rail and led until being run down in the final half-furlong by the Jamie Spencer-ridden 5-1 shot.



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Royal Ascot 2024: Day 2 (Wednesday) Preview, Tips

And so to the second finger of the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot KitKat: no Saturday here, that's for you. As you'll hopefully know by now, this week we're featuring guest previews from some trusted friends - and fine judges - alongside yours truly, starting today with John 'Victor Value' Burke in the Wednesday curtain-raiser, the...

2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Queen Mary Stakes is one of the most prestigious races for two-year-old fillies at Royal Ascot. First run in 1921, this race often features the most precocious and speedy fillies of the season, and many past winners have gone on to achieve significant success in their racing careers.

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Stall 17+: 4 winners from 37 runners +4.5, 9 places. (Stalls 1-16: 1 winner from 74 runners -68.5, 6 places).

Odds: 9/1 or shorter: 4 winners from 21 runners +7, 11 placed.

USA Trained: 2 winners from 11 runners +4.05, 4 placed.

The Listed Marygate Stakes at York’s Dante Meeting has been a good pointer to the Queen Mary producing three winners since 2008. This year’s race was won by Betty Clover who takes her place in the line-up.

Surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien has never won the Queen Mary.

Top Contenders:

Make Haste heads the ante post betting after creating a good impression when successful on racecourse debut at Naas last month. A speedy daughter of Blue Point she produced a good change of gear to win at Naas and is open to further improvement. Could have handy draw in stall 18.

Aidan O’Brien saddles Truly Enchanting who overcame greenness to win at Tipperary (soft) on debut 22 days ago. Strong at the finish last time the daughter of No Nay Never should be fine on quicker ground and looks a good prospect. Can she give her trainer a first Queen Mary success?

Leovanni, trained by Karl Burke, looked a smart prospect when winning a Nottingham maiden 14 days ago. Capable of better, it was good to firm that day so quick ground won’t faze her and she should go well.

Enchanting Empress made it 3 from 3 when winning the Listed National Stakes at Sandown (soft) last time. A reproduction of her Sandown form would probably be good enough to place in an average Queen Mary. Yet to race on ground better than good to soft but if she handles it she won’t be far away from stall 25.

Betty Clover was a winner at Bath on her racecourse debut  and returned to winning ways in the Listed Marygate Stakes last time. Came from off a strong pace to win at York and should benefit from Ascot’s stiffer 5f.

Ultima Grace, trained by Wesley Ward, looked speedy when winning on the dirt on debut at Keeneland (4 ½ f) in April. A daughter of American Pharoah, she’s likely got the scope for further improvement and shouldn’t be underestimated for a trainer who has won the race three times since 2015. Said by Ward to have worked well on grass and could be nicely berthed in stall 17.

Miss Rascal built on her racecourse debut promise when winning a course and distance maiden last month. Looked very professional when successful last time which will hold her in good stead here. Tom Marquand stays in the saddle. Likely to go well if stall five isn’t an inconvenience.

Queen Mary Stakes Verdict:

The Queen Mary Stakes promises to be an exciting sprint with a blend of precocious talent and potential future stars. Based on pace maps, the race is likely to be strongly contested from the start. Ascot’s five furlongs favours those who race prominently, so I’m focusing on horses who are likely to be close to the speed.

Ultima Grace has shown good early speed and should thrive on fast ground, and Miss Rascal impressed with her recent win over the course and distance. But Make Haste has garnered significant attention with connections turning down substantial offers, indicating their confidence in her potential.

Betting Advice:

My main selection is Make Haste but I’m having savers on Miss Rascal and Ultima Grace

• Make Haste: £16 win @ 6/1 with William Hill
• Miss Rascal: £2 win @ 10/1 with William Hill & Ladbrokes
• Ultima Grace: £2 win @ 11/1 with William Hill & bet365.

 

3.05 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

I’m gunning for HIGHBURY in this race, at around 7/2…

As always, let me start with some stats and trends… a historical ‘race profile’ points to previous winners having finished top 2 at least once on their last three starts, top 3 last time out, 0-2 runs this season, and having run over 1m4.5f or shorter last time out… this would have found 13 of the previous 16 winners, and 11 of the last 12.

IF this profile holds again, we’d be looking at a shortlist of just four… Illinois, Highbury, Grosvenor Square and Mina Rashid

It may also be worth noting that 15 of the last 16 winners were sent off 15/2 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger in the period a miserly 1/143, 20p.

To the trainers…

Those handlers to have won this race in the last 16 renewals, and represented today, include Andrew Balding (Mina Rashid), John & Thady Gosden (Pappano) and of course Aidan O’Brien, who leads the way with six winners from 28 runners, 13 places (inc. the winners), four of those sired by the late great Galileo, who is the daddy of all four of Aidan’s runners this year.

Staying with Aidan for the moment, his runners sent off 5/2 or shorter ISP are a perfect 3/3, which as I type is a positive for Illinois, but maybe he and Highbury will flip around, we shall see. Those sent off 10/3 or shorter ISP are 5/9, 5p +10 BFSP. Aidan was responsible for the only 8/1+ shot winning in the period.

Evidently there are no issues with the yard form. I’m writing this before the team’s Day 1 runners strut their stuff, but in the previous 14 days the Master of Ballydoyle is 11/23, 15p, 79% of rivals beaten. They’re firing on all cylinders and couldn’t be entering the week in much better nick, no excuses on that score.

Highbury

He ticks a lot of boxes for me here and at 7/2 or so offers a shade of value, to my eyes at least. In truth I do not know if Ryan Moore had the choice here, he usually does however Wayne Lordan has been on for both his career runs, evidently knows him best and is 7/13, 8p when riding for his boss in the previous 14 days. He couldn’t be coming here in much better form, as now stable #2. Aidan’s ‘second’ and ‘third’ string jockeys have won this race a few times and it will be interesting to see what the market does as race time approaches.

Of all the O’Brien runners in the Queen's Vase this year, he has least to prove on the ground, supposedly Good to Firm when bolting up at Leopardstown 38 days ago over 1m4f. He travelled comfortably and won easily in a race that is working out very well: six horses have since run and all have either won or placed. He’s well drawn to race prominently, and the Geegeez Pace Map suggests team Ballydole may dominate from flag fall. I’d certainly expect Highbury to be in the top four after a furlong, in the perfect spot to pounce. There looks to be so much more to come from him, and he’ll no doubt relish this further step up in distance and bounce off the ground, which is a question for some. I’d make him favourite.

 

 

Ryan More rides Illinois, possibly why he’s favourite -I suspect were he on Highbury, they’d be the other way round. Or so I keep telling myself! That may be indicative of what the team expects but I’m not sure. In any case, Illinois looked uncomfortable around Lingfield on faster ground, his previous runs on a softer surface. He hung up the straight with an awkward head-carriage, and on that basis, at 2/1 or so, I wanted to oppose.

Maybe it was the undulating course, or an off day, but he looked far from happy and stayed on at the one pace, for all he beat the rest easily; and, of course, he bumped into The Derby runner-up. I wasn’t convinced he was crying out for further either, but I’m prepared to eat humble pie on that score. Aidan’s other two have questions on fast ground also, and I’d like to think that both the stable #1 and #2 can’t be wrong here, for all it’s happened before.

Having said that, Grosvenor Square has it in him to run into a place, entitled to improve on his effort at Chester which was his first start of the season. He shaped there as if he’d relish a stamina test, if handling Good to Firm, and I’d expect him to take a fair step forward. He may also be happier around this more galloping expanse.

Birdman could be staying on into the places if handling the ground, an unknown, but historically this goes to horses stepping up further in trip from their last start, who haven’t yet shown their hand over 1m5f+, which he did when winning a Listed race last time. Those running over such a distance when last seen are 0/29, 5p in this race, but that's clearly a stat which is there to be broken. I just feel there’s a chance he’ll lack the tactical pace required.

Mina Rashid could also make the frame for all, as previously discussed, historically this hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for bigger priced horses. The form of Chester is yet to be tested and I don’t like the fact he wears a hood – that suggests he could get worked up pre-race in this carnival atmosphere and you do not want to be pulling on your first start over 1m6f, in a Royal Ascot Group 2. It looks a fair step up, but Andrew Balding knows what’s needed to win this race - he took it with Dashing Willoughby in 2019 - which is worth something and, if settling, he could run a nice race if you prefer an each-way stab at something. At least we know he’ll handle the ground and he shapes like a stayer in the making. I wasn’t too taken with any others.

The more I look at this race, the more bullish I become on 7/2 Highbury’s chances, what could possibly go wrong?! Maybe Grosvenor Square or Mina Rashid will chase him home, for those who like to play the forecasts, but I'm try to get the current favourite beaten!

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3.45 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies and mares)

Preview by Matt Bisogno.

The Duke Of Cambridge, formerly Windsor Forest, Stakes is a mile Group 2 usually run on the straight track for older fillies and mares. This year, it moves to the round course. Since its inception in 2004, 17 of the 20 winners were four-year-olds and only Aljazzi in 2018 has won for five-year-olds and up since 2008. This is interesting because the current joint-favourites are both aged five.

They are last year's winner Rogue Millennium and the Gosdens-trained Laurel. Let's cover the Rogue first. Naturally, course and distance are no problem but she came into the race in much better form twelve months ago; then, she was dropping back a quarter mile in trip having run second at a big price in the G2 Middleton Stakes at York. That extra stamina proved to be the clincher as she ground down Random Harvest by a neck at the line. This season, she's run just once, a taking enough prep at the Curragh over a mile (G2, good) when never nearer than at the finish; the stiffer test here will suit better and she ought to come on for the run, but with so many less exposed fillies in opposition she's hardly a value price.

In her third season racing and with just five career starts under her belt, one couldn't describe Laurel as a hardy type (see what I did there?!) but she is commensurately unexposed. Those five starts comprise a Newmarket fillies' novice debut score, two Kempton all-weather wins (one at Listed level), a close second in the Group 1 Sun Chariot and a clunk when last seen in the 2023 Lockinge. So, we've not witnessed her on track for over a year and she has only a single piece of form to justify her price; granted, it's a strong piece of form, but it was recorded in October 2022.

Let's cast the net across the four-year-old cohort as they're 8/1 and bigger as I write. And, with this stiff mile taking some getting, I like the 'turn back' angle: horses shortening in trip from their last run. Historically that has most often brought into play the Princess Margaret Stakes at Epsom and the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket. A filly who stepped out in both is Running Lion, who was a fair second on her seasonal bow at HQ having over-raced in that small field, before enduring a hideously luckless passage down the inner at Epsom on Derby day.

Trained by John and Thady, and ridden by Oisin, Running Lion hasn't tried as short as a mile in her last six outings but she was previously unbeaten in three at the trip. With enough pace around to help her settle and with the slightly wider track at Ascot to mitigate for traffic problems, she's an interesting player.

It might be that the Epsom race is queenmaker in this year's Duke Of Cambridge, with three of the first four home - respectively the winner, 3rd and 4th, Breege, Royal Dress and Julia Augusta - as well as Running Lion re-opposing. It was an archetypically messy race on the Epsom cambers and bears reviewing. The first image below is just inside the final quarter mile with Running Lion (all green) locked up on the rail, the yellow of Julia Augusta and the light green with lilac cap of Breege in the clear; red striped cap is Royal Dress having a shoulder barge with Chic Colombine, also in the highlighted box...

 

 

And this is at the furlong pole: Running Lion eased off, Julia Augusta no more to give, Breege - unimpeded - falls in for the win from the fast-finishing Chic Colombine and Royal Dress.

 

 

The question is, how would things have panned out granted smooth transit for all runners? It's a puzzle and obviously somewhat subjective; my feeling is that Royal Dress would have won. Placing Running Lion, beaten less than four lengths, is nigh on impossible. What is easier to posit is that Julia Augusta and Breege were least inconvenienced, the winner not being far enough clear of the third (and the eighth?) to expect to confirm placings. Claro?!

In any case, Breege's best form has come with some give and, as you can probably tell, I'm looking elsewhere for my play. Royal Dress, by Night Of Thunder out of a Dynaformer mare, is unexposed at a mile and her pedigree says she ought to keep rolling all the way to the Ascot lollipop. A slow maturing type she doesn't have an admirable win record but may have been waiting for a stiffer test of this nature. Having won a mile soft ground Listed race at Goodwood on her four-year-old debut she would have arrived here unbeaten in 2024 in more fortuitous circumstances.

The other 'turn back' filly is Sea The Lady, trained in France by Christopher Head (formerly of Big Rock and Blue Rose Cen fame). In what seems to be something of a carousel of comings and goings at Head's yard, this filly arrived from Yann Barberot's over the winter and ran an encouraging stable debut when third in a Longchamp Group 3 at ten furlongs. She travelled well and exhibited a nice gear change before flattening out there: perhaps that was lack of race fitness, perhaps stamina running out, perhaps the very soft ground, and most likely a combination of those factors.

Back in trip, with a race under her belt and for a trainer who has shown he can target big pots at Ascot, she's at least an interesting runner. There is the niggle, however, that having been bought by UK breeders for €300,000 as a broodmare prospect she could be a(n expensive) ticket for the very good owners' luncheon. In short, she's hard to weigh up, the balance of her form likely not good enough.

One to have plied much of her recent trade over further is Novus, beaten a whisker by Royal Dress last time in that Goodwood Listed contest. She has form to put herself on the podium but probably would have preferred softer turf. While, of the recent pure milers, Ocean Jewel won a Group 2 at the Curragh last time and was unlucky in the run on her first try at this trip in the G1 Matron Stakes last September. Unlucky she may have been but she was nearly ten lengths behind the winner, with Rogue Millennium some way ahead that day. Still, she's quite lightly raced and unexposed at a mile and, consequently, a player.

Orchid Bloom wasn't too far behind Ocean Jewel last time but I don't see why placings should be reversed, all other things being equal.

In the end, I'm going back to the beginning, and the Princess Margaret form: I think 12/1 Royal Dress and 14/1 Running Lion are both backable at those prices.

 

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4.25 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

With warmer temperatures and a receding rain threat ensuring quick ground at Ascot, it’s hard to see a shock in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. The front pair in the market stand out on official ratings and both have shown their very best form on fast turf; so, while it’s tempting to find an each-way angle into races at the Royal meeting, sometimes you have to simply play the cards you’ve been dealt. In short, this looks a shootout between Auguste Rodin and Inspiral, and the former edges the verdict at the current prices.

White Birch seemed to beat Auguste Rodin on merit in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but while Joseph Murphy’s star is best with some cut in the ground, Auguste Rodin’s best form last year came when the turf was very quick. All three of his blowouts came on good or softer, including on watered turf at Meydan, whereas four runs on good to firm or firm resulted in wins in the Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Turf. That’s quite a haul for a “twicer”.

It's hard to be certain that the ground is the reason for Auguste Rodin’s inconsistency and he obviously won the Group 1 Futurity on heavy as a juvenile; but it’s also tough to deny that his firm ground efforts have been those of a superstar, his form on softer of late not in the same class. He can have no excuses, it seems.

Inspiral has been rerouted here from the Queen Anne, and while I think that’s the right call given she seems best around a turn, there has to be some debate about her stamina for a stiff ten furlongs. She won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over this trip at Santa Anita, again showing her liking for fast turf and a turning track, but the sharp circuit in California would place less emphasis on stamina than Ascot’s more demanding track.

Her best form gives her every chance and her draw is a positive as long as Kieran Shoemark has the confidence to keep her wide, but I wonder whether the tactics will be to tuck in at the back of the field in order to attempt to conserve her stamina. I suspect that will indeed be the case and I’m not a fan of dropping in from a wide draw at this track, as it makes you a hostage to fortune.

Talking of the jockey’s confidence, I wonder whether Shoemark has had his dented by defeats on Inspiral in the Lockinge and Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup. He was outmanoeuvred tactically in both races but was riding mares who – by their trainer’s admission – were not fit to do themselves justice. Shoemark is filling big shoes at Royal Ascot this week, and I’d have preferred to see him ride a big winner to get the proverbial monkey off his back. I’d be genuinely pleased to see him do that here but the percentage call in a situation like this is to side with Ryan Moore, who certainly won’t be second guessing what defeat might mean.

Recommended: 1pt win Auguste Rodin @ 7/4 (William Hill)

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5.05 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

My biggest headache for every Ascot meeting is the straight track draw - and, in truth, I’m no closer to figuring it out. I will go through the data shortly but there is only so much it can tell you. Last year, and in 2021, the places were dominated by very high drawn horses, yet the winners in those years came from stalls 7 and 4.

Gone are the days where anything can be confidently ruled out because of the draw, but is there any advantage at all?

 

 

Concentrate on the blue line on the first graph above, taken from the geegeez racecard DRAW tab, which shows the PRB3 (average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) in big field mile handicaps on good or better ground. There are some peaks and troughs but the overall feel I get is that you can run well from pretty much any draw.

What we see in the draw and pace combination graph is far more interesting and useful. This shows that there is a significant pace bias towards those that are held up but it also tells us that if you are held up, or race in mid division, the draw seems to have almost no impact on your chance overall. That’s not to say that in every race the low draws have the same chance as the high draws, it’s more a case of the high draws are favoured just as often as the low draws. That’s an important distinction and it’s an acknowledgement that there can be biases from race to race, but they are difficult to predict.

The other takeaway from the above graph is that prominent racers and front runners tend to perform worse when drawn higher. My guess at an explanation for that would be you tend to see slightly more runners come near side and that perhaps creates more pace pressure and competition for the lead amongst those drawn higher. That may or may not be a factor.

There may be some draw bias clues from Tuesday’s races (the second and third races in particular) but without having seen those races at the time of writing, the best clue we may get about the draw bias is to see where the pace is positioned on the track. Here is the geegeez racecard PACE map for the Royal Hunt Cup.

 

 

It is interesting that there are only two real pace angles in here and the fate of the low drawn horses may well rest with what Neil Callan decides to do aboard The Gatekeeper from stall 14. Hollie Doyle is expected to simply pop Regheeb out from stall 31 and go straight forward, near to the near side rail, but Neil Callan will either stay in the middle or go nearside (he surely won’t switch to the far side?). If he traverses to the near side then the low draws are in very big trouble as they could end up in a small group headed by Thunder Ball and all the real pace will then be near side.

So, looking at the pace map, I wouldn’t be surprised if the middle and stands’ side groups merge into one in the final few furlongs (similar to 2022) and in that year the middle-ish draws seemed to do well with draws on the flank slightly underperforming.

If The Gatekeeper comes near side then I can see lower draws struggling so I’d say the safest area of the draw might be around the 19 mark, as that covers middle and high, but I may be wrong!

I’m never keen on unproven stamina in this race and that means I’m immediately putting a line through Wild Tiger, even if stall 20 might end up the almost ideal position. I also think Real Gain might be a little too slow for this and ideally suited by further so I’m against him too.

Things finally fell right for Sonny Liston last time out for him to get an overdue success but he’s 11lbs higher than when runner up in this last year so I’ve got question marks over how well handicapped he is now. He’s in stall 19 so could be well placed.

The ground might have been a bit too testing for Coeur d’Or in the Balmoral here last season but I’d still have expected him to perform better given he wasn’t far from the pace in a race where there was a massive bias in favour of those up there early on, so I’m not convinced he’s got what it takes to win this either.

Metal Merchant surely wants softer and Streets Of Gold looks a proper 7f horse to my eye whilst Aerion Power is 5lbs higher than when 4th last year and possibly badly drawn in stall 1. That’s quite a few of the fancied horses with some sort of negative against them (in my opinion).

I do like Beshtani, given he was beaten just a short head by a subsequent winner at Epsom and gets to race here off the same mark. He looks a winner waiting to happen but I think there is a bit of risk attached backing anything drawn in single figures here, although stall 9 is obviously the highest of the single figures. This will be the fastest ground he’s faced and he was ridden fairly prominently at Epsom, which could be a negative here, but I like his general profile. If I was having a a third bet in the race, he would be it, but he’s short enough so I’m going to recommend two ‘punts’ at bigger prices.

PEROTTO was sent off favourite for this last year off a 5lb lower mark and it’s not difficult to see why. He won the 2021 Britannia Stakes off 99 and, having lost his way under Marcus Tregoning, he’d made a promising debut for Roger Varian in the Victoria Cup off a mark of just 97 and been dropped a pound since then.

He was ridden too close to the pace in last year’s race and didn’t really fire, although finishing 10th wasn’t a terrible effort. He ran better in a first time hood on his next start at Sandown when winning a good handicap off a 7lb lower mark than today. The next three home all won shortly after so that was a very good effort.

He got bogged down in soft ground in the Golden Mile at Goodwood next time (also drawn badly in that race) but still ran okay, and then he showed his true form on better ground on the round course here on Shergar Cup day, doing well to chase down the leader in a very steadily run race.

He’s gone up 3lbs for that and hasn’t been seen since as he reportedly had a setback in the Spring, but Roger Varian has stated he’s happy with him and his runners don’t normally need a racecourse outing before they show their form so he should be fit enough. Stall 17 is probably a good draw but I’d definitely be going win only as he obviously comes with risks attached.

Hopefully Tom Marquand switches him off early and allows him to come through horses and if that happens the top price of 20/1 could look very good, with the more generally available 14s and 16s just about acceptable. If going win only though, you’ll likely get a much bigger price on the Exchanges (available at 25 at the time of writing).

One at a very big price I wouldn’t mind having a small each way bet on is SILENT FILM. He’s run some decent races here in the past, finishing runner up off a 2lb higher mark in a 7f cavalry charge just under 2 years ago and finding himself too poorly placed when 4th to Perotto at the Shergar Cup over the round mile last season.

He was 2nd to Ouzo in Meydan in January, who won again next time out, and I’m particularly interested in his 10f 3rd at Epsom in April in a race where the 1st and 5th have both won since and the runner up has filled that same spot again in a big handicap on Derby day.

It does concern me that his worst efforts have all come on good to firm but all his winning has been on good so I’m not sure if that’s just a bit of a weird coincidence. Something always tends to run into the frame (at least) at 33/1+ so I wouldn’t put anyone off a small bet at that price (50/1 top price).

In summary, all draws being equal, I’d say 12/1 Beshtani is the most likely winner of this year’s renewal but in search for a little bit of ‘value’ I’m going for a small win only wager on 20/1 Perotto (will be bigger on the exchanges) and a small each way bet on 50/1 Silent Film.

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5.40 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Preview by our own David Massey

Two things you really should take note of when looking at this year’s renewal of the Kensington Palace Stakes are - one, it will take place on the straight course, which isn’t usually the case; and because of that, two, you’ll have had a pretty good clue as to whether there’s any draw biases as the Hunt Cup is the race on the card before this.

I suppose there’s a third thing as well, and that’s that there’s not a lot of pace on here, not on paper at least. Timeform suggest a very strong pace, but I don’t think it will be any more than evenly run. The geegeez pace map is below with, essentially, no horse in the 'led' column (which is to say, no horse has on average led in its last three starts - Moonspirit and Doha are the closest to that profile).

 

 

Top of my list is Ed Bethell’s Elim, who was progressive on the all-weather throughout the winter of 22/23 and came back from a year’s absence to be sent off favourite for what looked, at the time, an ordinary Redcar handicap a month ago. She did nothing wrong in finishing a close fourth, travelling well but just getting a bit tired late in the piece, looking very much like the run would bring her on.

As it turns out, that handicap has worked out better than expected, with winner Ron O following up in a warm race at York last week, and second, Arctic Mountain, after winning at Lingfield on next start, being sent off a very short price from a 5lb higher mark to also win at York last week. Sadly, tack issues meant we couldn’t see whether Arctic Mountain was well handicapped or not as he didn’t complete, but what we do know is that Elim races off the same mark as Redcar and looks potentially well treated here.

The nicely-bred Summer Of Love will probably want a bit further in time, but this stiff mile will suit, and don’t be put off by the fact she’s only seen the all-weather so far. I wrote an article last week about where last-time-out winners at Ascot come from, and the all-weather - particularly Newcastle and Kempton - comes out as a positive. All the same, 8-1 looks the rock-bottom price given her form is by no means the strongest in the race, and she does need to improve again.

Instead, let’s finish off with a couple of flyers at huge prices.

Farhh To Shy is going to be a 40-1 chance, give or take, and that’s the sort of price that, for a horse that will travel as well as anything, is going to give you a bit of excitement deep into the race. Watch her finish third to Cell Sa Beela here last October - sent off 14 on Betfair, she trades 6-4 at the furlong pole and you’d think it was a matter of how far she wins by. Sadly, she finds little off the bridle, not for the first time (or the last) and she does no more than hang on for third.

It was a similar story back at Ascot here in May, where again she travelled up like a good ‘un, but found three-fifths of naff all off the snaffle, and ended up sixth after looking like a place was far more likely. In truth, she’s a back-to-lay here for those so inclined, but one of these days she’s going to win a race without coming off the bridle and if there is more pace on here than I think there is, that can only be a help.

At 66-1, Canoodled is getting a fiver each-way lobbed in her direction too. There are too many moderate efforts on her report card to be confident about her chances, but there’s no way she can be the price she is based on her fourth in the aforementioned Ascot 7f handicap that Cell Sa Beela won last season (Farhh To Shy third), beaten just half a length and if it had been a mile and not 7f, I rather suspect she might have won. You can argue it was a muddling contest but she shapes like this stiff mile on quick ground is what she wants to showcase her talents. She ran on from the back at Epsom last time to finish midfield, but that track didn’t play to her strengths at all, whereas this will.

 

6.15 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Since being upgraded to Listed status in 2004 all 20 winners have been male (just 2 fillies placed from 56 runners) who had run 1-3 times (44 losers had run 4 or more times) and had run in the last 43 days (23 losers had not). They had all finished top six last time out with all 20 horses that finished 7th or worse last time out also finishing unplaced here.

Only one winner had their last run on the all-weather (from the 34 to have tried) when the maiden Flashmans Papers caused a massive shock at 100/1 in 2008. He had though made his debut on turf at Windsor.

Maiden winners aren't that uncommon however with, as well as that 2008 winner, the 1997, 1999, 2002, 2019, 2020 and last year's winner Big Evs all scoring for the first time in the Windsor Castle. It's worth noting that they had all finished either second or third last time out. The last horse to win on debut was the Sir Michael Stoute filly Dazzle who scored as the 7/2 favourite back in 1996 when the race was run as a Class 2 contest.

15 of the last 18 winners had suffered a defeat at least once in their career with all 3 exceptions coming into the race having won their only start. The last 18 runners to have won both their last two starts have been beaten with just two making the frame.

Wesley Ward has won the race twice but all of his other 15 runners have finished unplaced including his last 12 runners (he last won the race in 2014), all of his 10 fillies and 13 of his 14 runners that were 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

Shocks are common in the Windsor Castle with the aforementioned Flashmans Papers at 100/1 and Wesley Ward's Strike The Tiger at 33/1 being the biggest priced winners this century. We've also had two 16/1 winners, three 20/1 winners and a 22/1 winner since 2006.

Horses drawn 12+ have won 10 of the last 14 renewals with three of the four exceptions coming from either stall 1 or 2.

Runners from Sandown's National Stakes have a good record since 2015 (32121400) with both 2017 winner Sound And Silence at 16/1 and 2021 winner Chipotle at 22/1 having competed in that contest. In fact in 2021 the Sandown race provided the 22/1 winner and 4th at 66/1 from just two qualifiers.

Inexplicably the 2nd and 3rd from the 2023 National Stakes disappointed badly in this race last year but I'm going to keep the faith with that trial race and go with a horse that will hopefully be going the other way round i.e. run well here having disappointed badly in this year's National Stakes.

Richard Hannon's HAWAIIAN was a ready winner of a maiden first time up at Newbury despite stumbling at the start. That race couldn't have worked out much better with the runner up winning by four lengths next time, the 3rd finishing second to Epsom Woodcote scorer Teej A on his next start, the 4th winning next time out before running third in a Listed race at York and the 5th came out to run The Actor to a neck in what has turned out to be a very hot Newmarket maiden. No wonder he was sent off a short priced favourite for the National where he was no bigger than 6/5 but ran no race at all and was beaten by the furlong pole. The trainer was happy to blame the soft ground that night and if we can strike a line through that run he could be a very big price given the form of his previous effort.

I'm also going to suggest a small bet on the Kevin Ryan runner END OF STORY who was another to win a maiden that has worked out very well but flopped next time when well supported in the betting. That run came in the Woodcote at Epsom where he led for a long way but didn't seem to see out the 6f and was beaten by the time they entered the final furlong. Back to a more conventional track and over 5f I think he could be worth another chance at a massive price.

SELECTIONS: HAWAIIIAN 1/2pt EW 18/1 / END OF STORY 1/4pt EW 50/1 (4 places)

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And that's half time in our quartet of daily previews. Hopefully we've - and you've - hit the target in the first half but, if not, there are 14 more conundrums to work through on Thursday and Friday. Join us for those!

Good luck.

Matt



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Big Evs makes it a big day for Mick Appleby in Windsor Castle

Mick Appleby registered his first Royal Ascot victory when Big Evs stormed to glory in the Windsor Castle Stakes.

It was also only a second winner at the Royal meeting for jockey Jason Hart who had the once-raced son of Blue Point always to the fore in the five-furlong Listed event.

Although only second on debut at Redcar, he took a huge step forward on this occasion and appeared to have plenty in the tank as Hart asked his mount to make his bid for home passing the two-furlong pole.

He soon displayed both a phenomenal turn of foot and strong staying power as he drew clear of his pursuers in the closing stages, with the 20-1 winner finishing three lengths clear of the 100-30 Aidan O’Brien-trained favourite Johannes Brahms and Ollie Sangster’s first Royal Ascot runner Inquisitively a further three-quarters of a length back in third.

Appleby said: “He’s won really well. He worked with Annaf (third in Tuesday’s King’s Stand) so we knew he was good. We really fancied him today, to be honest.

“Well done to all the team at home as they are working hard all week so I can come and enjoy it here.

“I’m not really surprised he’s won like that because he’s got so much speed, I’ve never had a two-year-old as quick as him.

“I’m not really sure where we go now, they will be big targets though so we’ll just see where we go with him.”



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Royal Ascot 2022: Wednesday (Day 2) Preview, Tips

Day Two, Wednesday, at the Royal Ascot meeting sees the quality decibel level eased just a soupcon. But there's still the magnificent Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes around which to build a sextet of supporting skirmishes, in particular a trio of Group 2's, the Queen Mary, Queen's Vase and Duke Of Cambridge Stakes. Add the Royal Hunt Cup handicap to the mix and it's a giddy afternoon of sport, though winners may be hard enough to come by.

Proceedings commence at the usual half-past-two with the...

2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo fillies)

The first two-year-old fillies race of the week is the Group 2 Queen Mary over five furlongs, first run in 1921. Attraction, the 2003 winner, was only the second filly - and the most recent - to go on to 1000 Guineas glory, though plenty of top class sprinters have announced themselves on this stage.

Wesley Ward has won the Queen Mary four times, and three times in the previous seven years, so his Love Reigns, who is favourite, needs close scrutiny. Here's her maiden score over the extended five furlongs at Keeneland:

It's hard at this stage to know what was in behind her that day, though the seventh placed horse has won since from three I could find with subsequent form (other two well beaten). What we do know is that she saw out this trip - half a furlong beyond five - well. And she has a turf pedigree, being by US Navy Flag out of a Pivotal mare. And she looks pretty rapid!

What we don't know is how she's handled the transit from America (usually Wesley's do that well) and, more importantly, how she will cope with a stiff straight track as opposed to a relatively easy turning track. As can be seen from the video, she's fast early - another typical WW runner trait - in a race not overburdened with gate speed. She is expected to lead and there's a good chance she'll still be in front at the finish.

What of the home defence? They may be headed by the similarly unbeaten-in-one Dramatised, who missed the break a touch on her sole start in a Newmarket maiden but was quickly into the vanguard; by the line she'd asserted her superiority by four widening lengths. The second has won both starts since, with the third almost six lengths away from the winner. She's similarly inexperienced to the favourite but brings plenty of speed and a bit of class to the party.

The National Stakes at Sandown has been a precursor to Queen Mary winners in the past, Rizeena and Bint Allayl both doubling up; so Maria Branwell - winner of both starts to date, most recently the National - is interesting. She showed tenacity to score in a big field on her debut before adding a dash of class to further steel at Sandown. Although her winning margin over the favourite that day, Crispy Cat, was only a neck there were fully six and a half lengths back to the third. I like the fact Maria won't be right on the speed early but ought to be close enough to have a crack should the fast gate horses waver up the hill.

Another two-from-two filly is Clive Cox's Katey Kontent. Cox was, of course, responsible for 150/1 bomb Nando Parrado in the 2020 Coventry - but also took the prizes with Heartache (2017 Queen Mary) and Reckless Abandon (2012 Norfolk) - so knows how to prepare a juvenile for the Royal meeting and, indeed, for this race. Heartache had won just a Bath novice on firm ground before blitzing a field of 23 in the Queen Mary - Wesley odds on favourite wilting in second - so it's reasonable to expect CC has KK ready to roll in the QM.

There are other unexposed fillies lining up, including Omniqueen, whose sole run and win was over track and trip, and Lady Tilbury, who has seen out five furlongs as though an uphill finish off a strong gallop is tailor made. A mention also for the Amy Murphy-trained Manhattan Jungle, whose three-from-three record has been achieved entirely in France, sent out from Murphy's satellite yard near Chantilly. That hat-trick was achieved on soft turf but we don't yet know that she won't handle faster terrain.

I've backed 10/1 Maria Branwell, 10/1 Katey Kontent and 16/1 Lady Tilbury already - more juvies in one race than in all the other Royal Ascot two-year-old races put together - but I've not really beaten the market. They're all playable each way with extra places, or splitting a single win unit across the trio. It's that sort of race.

3.05 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)

The Queen's Vase is named after a gold vase donated for the race by Queen Victoria in 1838. It became a three-year-only event from 1987 and was truncated in trip from two miles to a mile and three quarters in 2017. Those recent changes have seen the Queen's Vase emerge as a St Leger trial with both Leading Light and Kew Gardens doing the double in the past decade.

Mark Johnston and then Aidan O'Brien have largely shared ownership of the Vase since 2001, Johnston attaining seven wins up to 2014 and O'Brien recording the same number of victories with the most recent in 2020. The former is without a runner this time while O'Brien saddles just one of his quintet of five-day entries, Anchorage, who was only third choice amongst them at that stage.

Like three of the last seven Queen's Vase winners, and five in total, Anchorage is a son of Galileo but he's not obviously loaded with the requisite stamina for this 1m6f affair. Still, he must have been showing something to be the card played. Good enough to win a mile nursery off 88 last October, he ran a touch flat in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes over ten furlongs four weeks ago; or perhaps he just needed that first run for seven months. Either way, he was keeping on at the finish which at least offers a sliver of hope that he will see out the extra half a mile of the Vase. Cleveland's recent massive distance move to win the Chester Cup also suggests Team Ballydoyle know how to gauge such things. They know how to gauge most things.

Al Qareem is an improving type and was impressive when making all in a 0-90 handicap at York last time. He kept on well that day and should handle the extra quarter mile with the short straight expected to help, too. Syndicate manager Nick Bradley suggests this is their best chance of a winner all week.

Numerous of these are stepping up in distance a fair whack, and that includes likely favourite, Hafit. He's not won since his debut five runs ago, finishing second or third in each start since. He was outpaced as the 3/10 favourite in France last time when upped to a mile and a half, and connections clutch at further distance and first time cheekpiece straws now. He cost over two million as a yearling but this all looks a bit desperate even if he is the highest rated in the field.

Trainer Charlie Appleby also runs Nahanni, who is turned around quickly after a staying on midfield effort in the Derby 11 days ago. He'd been progressive prior the big day at Epsom and probably ran a little better again there; with stamina and 1m6f winners in the pedigree, he should see the trip out.

It's quite hard to assess the level of Eldar Eldarov's ability: unbeaten in a mile Nottingham maiden and a ten furlong Newcastle novice, this well bred (Dubawi out of a Listed-winning Sea The Stars mare) colt probably beat little when hosing up that first day but he did it in a fast time. And his Newcastle win is working out well enough, too: third placed Honiton has scooted in by nine lengths since; the fifth, Thundering, ran second next time; while the seventh and ninth both won on their subsequent starts.

Perfect Alibi is a runner for The Queen, and is trained by William Haggas. She'd looked a little shy of this level in a couple of mile and a quarter maidens but made all over an extra quarter mile last time when giving the impression she could go further. She might need more than just the three pounds sex allowance to beat all of the boys here, however. Baltic Bird is a Frankel colt who was bashed a dozen lengths by Nahanni on his debut. Since then he's progressed to a neck second and, most recently, a near four length score in a Yarmouth maiden. That's not obviously a stepping stone to Pattern glory but he's trained by the Gosden duo and so has presumably been shining in the three weeks since last sighted in public. Frankie rides.

Trying to project which of these will improve the most, and from what level of current ability they will do it, is as challenging as it sounds. The one with a good starting point in terms of talent, and bundles of upside for both the longer range and scope to progress is Eldar Eldarov and he's my idea of the best guess in the race.

3.40 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)

The highlight of day two is the Prince Of Wales's Stakes, first run in 1862. Fun fact: there was no Prince Of Wales's Stakes between 1946 and 1967 because there was no Prince Of Wales! The race resumed in 1968, a year prior to Prince Charles' investiture, at which point the distance was changed to its current 1m2f.

This year's renewal is a little light on numbers, perhaps, but it's fair overloaded with intrigue. Runners from France and Japan, as well as the expected Anglo-Irish entries - a couple of which are globe-trotters - make for a fascinating clash of the world order.

The market is headed by a rather more run of the mill horse - in terms of indigeneity at least. Bay Bridge was born and raised on these shores and has raced exclusively here, too; but let that not detract from his ascendant star, marked with panache in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at the end of last month. There, in what looked a strong field, he sailed five lengths clear of Mostahdaf, himself a progressive chap, with aging rocker Addeybb a further length back.

The visual boys (and girls) were getting a juice on about that performance but one does need to try to pick holes when pondering a large play at a short price. So let's try and poop the party. It is tricky, in that Bay Bridge has now won his last five starts, progressing from novices through handicaps and Listed class to that seasonal bow in Group 3 company. But perhaps the runner up is not quite as good as we thought: after all, though he won a similar race over course and distance in April, that was a muddling three-runner affair; and his only try beyond G3 level was when just about last in the St James's Palace Stakes a year ago. He was only 10/1 that day so better was expected.

Addeybb may have been prepping for a bigger summer target on his first run for seven months, which all of a sudden - while not detracting from the visual performance - raises questions about the underlying substance.

I'm certainly not knocking Bay Bridge, and I hope he wins in style... if the horse I bet doesn't win; because I can't bet BB, who I feel is too short in a field stacked up with proven G1 performers.

Of those storied horses in opposition, perhaps the main interest is with the Japanese star, Shahryar. Winner of the Japan Derby this time last year, he was later third in the Japan Cup before winning the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Dubai. Those races were all over a mile and a half and in big fields, conditions which contrast with this small field ten furlong event: it will be interesting to see whether Shahryar has the dash for the job.

State Of Rest has been a superstar for connections, racking up the air miles with G1 victories in America (Saratoga Derby), Australia (Cox Plate) and France (Prix Ganay). Three Group or Grade 1's all at or around ten furlongs, all in smallish fields, and on a variety of going puts this Starspangledbanner colt in the mix; and he was a touch unlucky not to reel in Alenquer and the front-running High Definition in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last time: he'd have probably won in another three strides. In spite of all that, he has a bit to find on ratings, with the short Ascot straight not necessarily playing to his strengths.

The 2020 Prince Of Wales's Stakes was won by Lord North, who missed the party last season but is back again now. Last seen when dead heating in the Group 1 Dubai Turf, a race he also won in 2021, he's failed to win in his five other races since that Royal triumph two years ago.

Another whose form is hard to accurately peg is French visitor, Grand Glory, Group 1 winner of the Prix Jean Romanet last August. She ran a cracker in the G1 Prix de l'Opera on Arc weekend, falling short by just a nostril on heavy turf. A trip to the Japan Cup elicited a fifth place finish, two spots behind Shahryar and, so far this season, she's beaten the same filly - Burgarita - in both Listed and Group 3 company. Ten furlongs is her trip, she seems versatile regarding ground as long as it's not very fast, and she has a gear change which may be the key requirement (as well as class) in this race.

It's a really tricky race to work out with the merit of so much overseas form hard to fathom. There is no obvious pace angle which further muddies the water. I have backed Shahryar but somewhat gone off his chance since striking the wager, and I'm really not inclined to go in again. There's a decent chance that Bay Bridge just wins, but he's fairly cramped odds given this first step up to G1, and it wouldn't be a total shocker whichever horse wins. In that context, it may be worth lobbing a shekel at either State Of Rest or Grand Glory. Or *takes deep breath* just watching the race uninvested.

4.20 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies and mares)

One of the newer races at Royal Ascot, the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes was inaugurated in 2004 as part of a programme designed to keep fillies and mares in training beyond their three-year-old season. It is run on the straight mile.

Aidan O'Brien hasn't pointed many fillies or mares in this direction and he's yet to fare better than I Can Fly's third placed finish in 2019 from four attempts. That may not stop Mother Earth, who when she's good is very, very good. Examples of that include her straight mile G1 score in the Prix Rothschild last August (soft), her straight track mile second in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket (G1, good to firm), and of course her straight track mile win in last year's 1000 Guineas (good to firm). She handles conditions well, then, but her overall form is hit and miss, as evidenced by down the field efforts in the Lockinge last time and the Breeders' Cup Mile four back. On a going day, she has the assets to contend.

Saffron Beach was bought for 55,000 guineas - not a snip but hardly a king's ransom in the context of these equine bluebloods either. She's since netter five grand shy of half a million for her lucky/shrewd (both, in fairness) owners and given them unforgettable days including a Group 1 win in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket last October. Fourth place in the Dubai Turf last time added another £185k to the kitty and she comes here fresh from the exertions of overseas travel and racing. She's the highest rated filly in the field.

The German filly, Novemba, ran a bold race from the front in last year's Coronation Cup, eventually finishing a two length fourth in that 3yo Group 1.  She's not been in quite the same form since, but will probably lead the charge again, a run style not especially suited to this stiff straight mile.

Bashkirova is another Cheveley Park filly, trained by William Haggas this time, and she does have the winning habit: in just six lifetime starts, she's come home in front four times, the latest of which was in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Epsom only eleven days ago. If she's recovered sufficiently on this tight turnaround, she recorded a career best that day and is entitled to continue to improve. Moreover, her midfield run style might fit the race setup though she will probably need to break more alertly than at Epsom. She has a good bit to find strictly on the numbers but is progressing whereas others are largely treading water ability-wise.

The cheval noir (she's actually a bay but you know what I mean) in the field might be Sibila Spain, trained in France by Christopher Head. A winner of four of her eight races, including a Saint-Cloud Group 2 last time out, she stays a little further (has won over ten furlongs) and handles good ground. It's hard to know how she'll be ridden: historically she was a front-runner but she was smuggled into the race from the rear last time and that worked out very well, so I'd imagine she will again be waited with.

Also raiding from France is the Mickael Barzalona-ridden Kennella. She has form over seven furlongs and a mile, most of it on soft ground, including a third in the French 1000 Guineas last May. Her best runs were at a mile and she could conceivably improve for faster turf. In what might be a fairly well run race, her late running style and turn of pace could see her perform better than quotes of 25/1.

The Duke Of Cambridge Stakes is another very difficult race from a betting perspective. Saffron Beach and Mother Earth both have cases to be made for them but neither is particularly consistent. The rest need to bring more to the table, some of them having suggested they can. Given all the question marks, the French horses, Sibila Spain and Kennella, may be worth tiny bets at around 8/1 and 25/1 respectively. But this is really hard.

5.00 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap)

Considered by many to be the toughest handicap puzzle of the entire flat season, the Royal Hunt Cup - first run in 1843, when there was a three way dead heat for second - is a 30-runner cavalry charge down the straight mile. Clearly, it's not a straightforward task to deconstruct a field like this, so perhaps some trendage will assist.

Four- and five-year-olds have dominated the top step of the podium, winning 22 of the last 25 Royal Hunt Cups, and winning all bar five renewals going back to 1971. It is therefore no shock to note that those age groups make up the bulk of the runners, yet they still outperform older horses two to one in terms of runners to winners, and roughly the same in the last 25 years in terms of placed horses to runners. Eleven of the last 15 winners were aged four: less in the book, more to come - you know the drill.

Since the race returned to Ascot in 2006 after its one year sojourn at York only one winner was rated outside of the 93-103 official figures zone. Again, that doesn't remove too many from consideration but it looks faintly material. Hold up horses have a great record in big fields over a mile on the straight track at Ascot, so let's use that to cut to the chase.

Dark Shift is anything but a dark horse, having headed the ante-post betting for some while; and that's because of the strength of his case, naturally. To wit, he has won three of his last four races, two of them here, one over a mile. Meanwhile, his defeat in that sequence was when drawn on the wrong side in the seven furlong Victoria Cup on the same straight piste as this.

Although only 11th of 27, he was fourth of those to race up the centre: held up early, sectionals tell us he made a big move between the two and one furlong poles and couldn't quite see it out under those circumstances. With an extra furlong to travel, the onus should be more on a gradual positional improvement rather than singular acceleration and, with his draw in 15 - bang centre - ought to at least make the extended places frame.

Astro King was second to Real World a year ago and has been largely nowhere since.  There was a bronze medal in a big field York handicap at the Ebor meeting amidst the no shows and it doesn't take Einstein's intellect to work out that this has been the target for some time.

Fantastic Fox is less obvious. The son of Frankel won a couple of small field mile races as a three-year-old last term but was seemingly outclassed in the nine furlong Cambridgeshire at season end. Gelded over the winter, Roger Varian's charge has run reasonably well on both spins in 2022, first when midfield but not beaten far at Haydock and then when a staying on third of 15 over the fast nine at Epsom. He looks attractively handicapped off 98 and could be sitting on a big one: he'll be played late.

Varian also saddles the unexposed and impeccably bred Legend Of Dubai: he's a son of Dubawi out of a mare called Speedy Boarding, who was herself a dual Group 1 winner. Legend Of Dubai has had just five races to date, winning his last two, first over a mile and a half and then dropping all the way back to a mile seven weeks ago. In spite of being held up in a small field that day, he waltzed home by better than four lengths; he has class, stamina and more to come.

Irish trainers have won the Royal Hunt Cup twice since 2016, from just ten runners, and my eye is drawn to Bopedro, trained by Jessica Harrington. Winner by two and a half lengths of the 27-runner Irish Cambridgeshire over a mile (good) last summer, he fair surged clear of his field that day after which he seemed to run out of track over seven furlongs next time. Since then, it was a similar story in a couple of Listed contests before what looked like a prep for this in another mile Premier handicap at the Curragh. He's a strong traveller with a bit of class so, while the nine pound hike since his big win is unhelpful, he's priced (28/1) to take a swing at.

Nine of the last 14 winners were returned 16/1 or bigger - all 33/1 or shorter, too - so perhaps we should be tilting at a windmill or two. The Fantastic Fox fits this bracket, Bopedro, too, and so also does Rebel Territory, trained by Amanda Perrett. The trainer won the 2017 Royal Hunt Cup with Zhui Feng and this progressive four-year-old may not be done improving yet. He's prevailed in three of his last four races, including the two most recent, and has a nice knack of getting up late and thus hiding the extent of his ability from the handicapper somewhat. He is yet another interesting runner in a field full of 'em.

There are as many as eight places on offer with some firms. If that's the good news, you've still got to beat 22 runners to get paid on the place! Hold up horses have had the best of it in this straight mile cavalry charge and, with that front of mind, I'll try Bopedro with only six places in order to get the 28/1 top price. And I'm going to chance the Varian pair, 11/1 Legend Of Dubai and 33/1 Fantastic Fox, as well. The placepot is likely to have at least a dozen more numbers etched on the ticket!

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)

Inaugurated in 1839, the Windsor Castle Stakes is the five furlong two-year-old contest in which Wesley Ward first advertised his abilities with fast juveniles to the British racing crowd. It was Strike The Tiger, in 2009, who made us all ask, "Wesley who?" - there is no such uncertainty about the American now, of course, and he is again well represented across the two-year-old races.

Wesley has Seismic Spirit this time, ridden by the brilliant but untried at Ascot, Irad Ortiz, Jr. He's just about the best American rider right now and how he fares on the straight track sprinters this week will be fascinating. This Belardo colt was beaten on debut but must have been showing plenty since to have earned his plane ticket, with his sire faring much better than many expected: he has a couple of juvenile Group race winners on his roster already (Elysium and Isabella Giles) as well as Lullaby Moon, who won the Listed Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar in 2020. QED, Belardo can get fast two-year-olds. And so can Wes. A player, though I always wonder about Ward speedballs in the final 100 yards.

There are loads of rapid unexposed babies in opposition, as is the Windsor Castle wont. Let's rattle through a few of them, starting with Little Big Bear, the favourite. He didn't quite get home over six furlongs on debut and, with that experience behind him, was an emphatic three length scorer on his only subsequent run when dropped back to this range. By No Nay Never, he could end up being a very quick horse and is the right market leader.

Far Shot was a fast breezer who sold after his racecourse audition for £160,000. Turned out by Team Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori, he has the right connections, and he was a competent if not wow factor winner of his debut. That was on soft ground and it might be that this 'terra firmer' will suit much more. It will need to as he's behind plenty of his rivals on the clock at this very early stage. Like Far Shot, Bolt Action was also a £160,000 breeze up purchase, by first season sire Kessaar. Unlike Far Shot, he was impressive in hurtling four lengths away from a small field at Leicester a fortnight ago. Naturally, he'll step forward for the experience.

A third breezer, this time 'only' costing £90,000, is Chateau, who put a respectable midfield debut behind him when claiming the Beverley Two-Year-Old Trophy in good style. Though the margin of victory was just a neck, Chateau was hemmed in at a crucial stage and did very well to get up, having had to take back and circle most of the field with about a furlong to run. He's miles better than the bare wining distance, as is his trainer with Royal Ascot juveniles: since 2017, he's run eleven two-year-olds at the meeting, notching three winners, a 3rd, and a 4th (of 21).

The filly Union Court is two from two, both at this five furlong minimum, both by daylight and, most recently and under a penalty, by almost four lengths. Those were Class 5 races, however, due to her purchase price of a relative bargain 18,000 guineas (£18,900, a guinea being £1.05, in case you didn't know and were interested), and this is a quantum step up in grade. Who is to say she's not ready for it?

The joint-most experienced horse in the line up is Donnacha O'Brien's Wodao. As with most from the yard, he's taken a little time to figure out this racing lark and he probably wasn't helped by bumping into Norfolk fancy The Antarctic twice prior to seeing off Studio City last time. He's pretty quick but not as rapid as some of these, as well as perhaps not being so open to improvement.

It is quite likely that Little Big Bear 'just wins', and I have backed him to get my stake back - plus the price of a sticky bun. The stake I'll get back if the jolly wins, is on Chateau, who I'm chancing each way. It will not be sticky buns, but cream cakes if the latter prevails: Chateau for the gateaux, you might say (you might also say, "crowbarred lame gag", and I'd fully accept that!)

What else but Chateau could one back in the Windsor Castle?! Groan, let's move on, rapidement, to the nightcap...

6.10 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

A brand new race last year, The Kensington Palace Stakes is a round mile handicap for older fillies and mares. As with most of the handicaps at major festivals, it is likely to be the case over time that unexposed horses - those with fewer runs from which to reveal their ability to the handicapper - will prove advantaged. With that in mind I'm siding with the four-year-old brigade, mindful that such half-cooked folly may have jettisoned the entire podium without further consideration!

Last year's winner, Lola Showgirl, was out of trouble in front from start to finish - and, in a field of 18 or so, a trouble-free passage will be needed by all aspirants. One who got too far back was Roger Varian's Waliyak, eventually running on for third, and connections go again this time with Mobadra. Lightly raced after just five starts, including two second places and two wins, this Oasis Dream filly showed good speed over Kempton's seven furlong oval when last seen in November 2021. She's entitled to have improved for another winter break and, if fit enough on her annual bow, can be involved.

The Joseph O'Brien-trained Haziya is favoured at time of writing. She was last seen running on into third in a huge field Premier Handicap at the Curragh four weeks ago, and had previously won a big field Leopardstown handicap; both of those races were over a mile, the win achieved on a turning track. If she hasn't already used up her luck in running vouchers, she'll go close.

Ffion is 8lb higher than when second in the race last year primarily because she comes here off the back of a win on her 2022 debut. That was on soft ground over seven at Chester but it was good to firm at Ascot a year ago so she should handle any terrain. She's also versatile tactically, having won when held up at Chester but previously scored with a prominent run style and when making all. She's a super consistent filly - three wins, four seconds and two thirds from eleven races - and ought again to give it a good go. She's 16/1 and that, each way with five (or more if you can find them) places, will do.

Good luck if you're playing this one.

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And that brings us to the two-fifths point of the week, but half way on the geegeez previews with yours true traditionally too cream crackered after going through 28 races to face the Saturday card. It could well be that that comes as a blessed relief by then!

Good luck.

Matt



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