The World Cup is more than a fortnight past and I'm itching for the domestic action to get going once again. With Ay Curumba Cup (or whatever it's called now) first round matches preceding the opening weekend of league games, there's a little extra time to wrangle with your permutations: I don't expect those knockout results to have a significant bearing on ante post prices for the main action.
As ever, allow me to preface with the fact that I know little more than some of you, and considerably less than many of you, about footer so the usual 'buyer beware' caveat is watermarked across all of what follows.
2025/26 Season Review
Let's first have a squint at how last season went. I was late to the party and, as a result, a number of the prices on teams I wanted onside had been snaffled (mainly due to the Racing Post's excellent pullout leaning in similar directions before my tardy publication). As a risky workaround and a slightly desperate attempt to claw back some of the lost price juice, for the first time I added a couple of bankers to all tickets.
Mercifully, both PSG (1/8) and a Kane-inspired Bayern Munich (1/3) won their domestic divisions which added a 50% kicker onto the cumulative will pays of all tickets.
But, it's worth repeating, if either had failed to land the odds, the game would have been up. There are no certainties and it was a risky play.
Further down the slips came the English picks: two chances for promotion from the Championship, a single promotion guess in League One, and one each - to win and to be promoted - in the National League.
Championship: Ipswich / Sheff Utd
League One: Stockport
National League: York City win / Carlisle promotion
It's fair to say that no part of it was 'eased down' with three matches to play, except Bundesliga Bayern. Having put themselves in a very strong position, draws away at West Brom and, less frustratingly, a front foot Southampton, meant Ipswich needed a win on the final day at home to QPR. Two early goals all but sealed the deal as they secured the runner up spot behind Coventry City.
Sheffield United endured a luckless season, falling out of the blocks and then succumbing more than almost any side in the section to the dreaded xG variance. In the xG table, they were fifth for goals scored and sixth for xG difference. In the actual table, they finished 13th. Sigh. This pick was not nearly as bad as it might have appeared, for all that we'd have still needed a bit of luck to get into the playoffs on xG performance.
If we were a touch unlucky with the Blades, we probably got what we deserved with Stockport. Third over 46 games, without getting close to the top two, County beat Stevenage home and away in the playoff semi-final before getting found out at Wembley by Bolton. As I mentioned in emails at the time, however, this did offer us an opportunity to hedge a bit of our potential winnings. I hedged £300 on this.
And then there was the National League. With hindsight, this was a poor bet even though we nearly got both right. For a fun play, it's important to have as many avenues open as possible; so, while the Championship and League One offer two automatic promotion places and playoffs down to sixth, and L2 has an extra auto with playoffs down to seventh place... the National League has a single automatic spot for the winner and a sole playoff spot for the best second to fifth placed team. That's notably less scope for retaining the interest and I won't be in a rush to return south of League 2.
That said, York City did win the division - just! And Carlisle finished a snug third, well placed for a playoff run against a dejected Rochdale who'd missed out on auto by a nose. But the Cumbrians were poor at home to their long-distance-travelling semi-final opponent Boreham Wood, and were fortunate even to take it to extra time before giving best.
Meanwhile, 'dale's late drama extended to the playoff final, and positively this time, as they snatched an equaliser in the 97th minute before prevailing on penalties to earn a deserved promotion.
In the end, then, I returned £468.92 off a stake of £240, so a profit of £225 or so. And a season's worth of fun and games along the way... If you didn't follow my Stockport headging advice/lead and instead let things ride, you would have lost about 30% of your initial investment. Not catastrophic on a fun long range bet, but also not as good as getting a few beers out of it.
You can review last season's thinking here, if you'd like to...
Let's roll on to the new season now.
2026/27 Preview
There is a key change to be aware of this season, relating to the Championship playoffs. Starting now, teams from third to eighth will be involved in playoff matches: the winners of single match shootouts between 5th vs 8th and 6th vs 7th will play two-legged ties against the third and fourth placed finishers to decide who goes to Wembley. From a promotion bet perspective, then, that's slightly more hedging wriggle room if our pick doesn't get it done automatically.
As a final aside, if you might be interested I've added a few further thoughts in a p.s. at the very bottom of this post.
Championship Promotion
I was really tempted to include West Ham to get promoted at 8/15, and I think they will. But... there are reasons to believe they'll have a choppy start. Off field issues with ownership might be compounded by a super tough opening four fixtures that include Burnley and Watford away, and Wolves at home. My feeling is that they'll probably drift a bit, maybe to 4/6 or so, by early September. That could be a time to include them in a rollup based on what has been learned across the early weeks.
Anyway, so much for who I'm not including. First name on this year's team sheet is Middlesbrough to be promoted. They've finally lost talisman Hayden Hackney but have also belatedly addressed an attack that has fallen just a little shy of what's needed. Defensively Boro were solid last season, conceding very close to a goal a game, a record as good as Coventry, Ipswich and Millwall - and a key to getting promoted. But they scored 25 fewer goals than Cov. Out went Hackney then (no other notable exits to date), but in comes the wing wizardry of Sarmiento and the potential goal output of Lankshear, a young 'sniffer' who, on loan from Spurs, suffered from lack of creativity behind him in a relegated Oxford side. They've also added proven Championship talent in Kyle Joseph from promoted Hull and a couple of lads from the MLS about whom I know nothing.
Their xG was bang there in the second half of last season when very often they were battering teams without winning. That sort of variance normally resolves itself soon enough and, because of West Ham's legit claim to bounce back, every other team is a square price. Middlesbrough are 3/1 in places, 11/4 generally and will be the sole stab in the Championship because of the Irons imponderable.
My working out includes not being sold on Wolves at the price, that Saints will start on -4 and might get a further deduction (it's a big ask already, even allowing for their blistering finish to last season), and that Burnley are likely to be thereabouts. Sheff U could sneak into the frame if their financial situation is sorted pronto, but that looks a big 'if'; and I don't really see the case for celebrity US-owned Birmingham or Wrexham, which is not to say that won't show me the case!
League 1 Promotion
We're definitely not going back down the Stockport route this season. Under new manager Jim McNulty, poached from National League runners up and now L2 Rochdale, the squad is in transition and it doesn't look strong enough this time.
The elephant in the L1 room is a fox, or an earth of foxes more accurately. Leicester City's squad and manager tower over this division. Russell Martin got Southampton promoted from the Championship to the Premier League, and has lots of experience; and his squad has shed a few - but surprisingly few (so far) - of the relegated collective. Off went Fatawu, Winks, Daka and El Khannouss along with some older and more expensive wage contributions. In come Conor Chaplin and Liam Cullen, while still at the club are the likes of Mavididi, de Cordova-Reid, Skipp and Choudhury.
However, all those named are attacking talents and last season's big problem was defensive: they shipped 58 goals against an expectation of 65 on the quality of the chances they gave up. They were really poor at the back. Naturally, attackers in League One are a level below those in the Championship, but still work is needed. City have recuited Alex McCarthy, well known to Martin from their time at Southampton, to challenge for cat duties and they've had an excellent pre-season. At 4/5 and 8/11 they are very short but they're not the wrong price and could even be a smidge of value. And they will doubtless give us something to cheer for a large part of the season at least.
I'm not at all sold on the Lazarus case for Sheffield Wednesday, preferring the prospects at bigger prices of Plymouth and Blackpool; but, slightly more than that pair (who are playable in promotion singles if you fancy it) I like Luton Town. Unexpectedly (for me anyway), Jack Wilshere did pretty well after joining the Hatters in mid-October and led them to a win in the EFL Trophy as well as 7th in the league - just missing the playoff spots. They finished unbeaten in their last twelve matches, eleven in the league, a run that included nine wins.
Wilshere has made some good looking acquisitions: striker Callum Marshall scored 9 in 43 in L1 two years ago aged 19; right back Harrison Ashby had 42 Championship appearances in the past couple of seasons; and both Gideon Kodua and Kasey Palmer have signed permanently after strong scoring loan spells last season. I expect Lu'on to at least make the playoffs, their promotion odds being 11/4 in places and 5/2 generally.
League 2 Promotion
After last season's flirtation with the National League we revert to League 2 to round out the wager. On the plus side there are three auto spots and playoffs down to seventh. Consequently, however, prices are a little less juicy - we can't have our cake and eat it!
Over the last ten seasons, 40 teams got promoted. A quarter of them had been relegated from L1 in the previous campaign (40 such teams), a quarter were beaten in the previous season's playoffs (30 such teams), and a half went up from 'the rest' (170 such teams).
That means that relegated L1 sides made up 25% of the promoted teams from a cohort of 16.7% of all L2 teams. Beaten playoff sides made up 25% of promoted teams from 12.5% of all L2 teams. And teams finishing 8th-22nd in L2 (18) or promoted from the National League (2) were responsible for 50% of promoted teams from 70% of all L2 teams.
Still with me? The management summary is hardly earth-shattering: sides dropping down and, especially, those who almost got promoted the year before accounted for half of all promoted L2 teams in the past decade, from slightly less than 30% of teams in the division. Of course, that's hardly lost on a market which has many of those sides to the fore in its ante post lists.
Salford make perfect sense and they're credible favourites, but they fall into the MK Dons bracket for me: expensive to follow even though you know that eventually - as MK did last season - they'll get promoted. Apprehensively, I'll step over them. Barnet were good - and unlucky - last season, just missing the playoffs, but they've lost the goal threat of Stead (their top scorer) and creativity of Glover (most appearances, assist machine) which tempers enthusiasm for a repeat bid.
I'm taking a chance first off with one of the playoff teams from last season, Grimsby Town. The Mariners have finished ninth and seventh in their last two League Two campaigns and this is a team with continuity at its core. Manager David Artell has been in charge for more than three years and they've retained all of their attacking options from last term. They boasted the highest xG in the league as well as the highest xG difference, and if they can convert those 'quality of chance' superiorities into a couple more wins they'll be right in the shake up at around 5/2 or 11/4.
For the second pick in this section I was mulling between the trio of Bristol Rovers (top manager, strong end to last season), Chesterfield (beaten in playoffs, a lot of ins/outs this summer) and Port Vale (massive player turnover). In the end, I've plumped tentatively for the Gas. I very much like the case for teams that a) finish the previous season strongly, and b) have a high degree of continuity in personnel to offer hope that more of the same will follow.
Rovers are managed by 'been there, done that' Steve Evans and they retain their two major goal outlets in Cavegn and Harrison; the former is a rising force and the latter a proven if not prolific scorer at L2 level. They won eight of their last ten last season, drawing the other two, and - though they have a tricky opener - look to have a nice run of fixtures to establish a front rank position through September. They're 2/1 or so for promotion, which gives us the cheer down to seventh spot.
The Bet
So it's a perm trixie - doubles and trebles.
Sixteen bets, so for 50p's it's £8, and fingers crossed we can at least get an automatic double and a playoff hedge chance somewhere in their midst.
365 are top or equal top price on almost all picks, so no messing/shopping around this time...
Here's my ticket:
So that's what I'll be cheering from the cheap seats this season. But what about you? Can you make a case for or against any team, or perhaps a cheeky under the radar exotic market play somewhere?
If I've annoyed you with what I've said about your team, tell me why I'm wrong (I probably am!) - just leave your comment in the box below.
Good luck!
Matt
p.s. as mentioned earlier, a few other things I'm thinking about.
Barcelona (4/5) will probably beat Real Madrid again to win La Liga.
Bayern Munich are very short this year, especially with Harry K-nackered up top. They'll likely just win the Bundesliga once more, but 1/8 is tight enough.
PSG at a similar price (as big as 1/6) look as close to a good thing as there is. Barring a points deduction or some such, they'll win Ligue 1 again.
Hull simply must be relegated and 1/4 is fair enough about a team that fluked into the top tier and haven't bothered reinforcing, appearing to accept the overwhelming likelihood of their fate.
It might be one of those years where the three promoted to EPL get relegated again, but I think Sunderland at 4/1 to go down is a very good bet. They over-performed significantly last season against xG, they had half their squad at the World Cup and so less rested, and they have Europa League as a distraction this time around. Though it pains me to say it, 10/1 Bournemouth might give you a relegation run by a similar rationale.
4/7 Celtic will win the Scottish Premiership again.
Parlaying Barca, Bayern, PSG, Hull and Celtic comes to about 7/2, pretty much all of which is on the coin tosses in La Liga and the Scottish Prem (apols to Jambos). You'll get a run for the pennies even though a lot needs to go right for a payout and only one thing wrong for a kicking...
One last thing. The Premier League is comfortably the deepest talent pool in the world and, as such, our teams have outstanding chances in both the Europa and Conference Leagues. I'll backing those dashing Cherry Reds to win the Europa League at any double digit quote. It would truly be the most ridiculous story ever to be told in our other great game...
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