Each day of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race.
Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival for you!
The 'day two' feature is the Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Nicky Henderson has won six times.
You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2026 below.
Cheltenham Day One Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2026
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026
Wednesday 11th March (Old Course & Cross Country)
1:20 – Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV
2025 Winner: THE NEW LION (3/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
UK/Irish: UK
Pluses….
• 19 of the last 21 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 13 of the last 17 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 21 of the last 25 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 25 of the last 31 winners won last time out
• 30 of the last 31 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 23 (10 of last 12)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• 14 of the last 17 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
• 26 of the last 31 winners (including last 14) had won at least one bumper race
• 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6
• In the last 14 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 29 of the 42 top 3 places
• 25 of the last 27 were NH bred
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (9 of the last 15 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 7 winners in last 18 years (5 of the last 12)
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
• Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times (1993, 2004, 2013)
Negatives….
• Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 39 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 21 of the last 22 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten – The New Lion (2025) bucked the trend
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten 0 from 31 in the last 19 years)
2:00 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV
2025 Winner: LECKY WATSON (20/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Sean O’Keefe
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• The last 24 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 18 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
• 27 of the last 31 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 16 of the last 19 (21 of last 26)
• 14 of the last 20 winners won last time out
• 8 of the last 16 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 9 of the last 18 winners had won a bumper before
• 9 of the last 19 favourites won
• 16 of the last 19 winners aged 7
• The last 11 winners were rated 150+
• 12 of the last 14 winners returned single-figures in the betting
• 22 of the last 25 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 23 from the last 29
• 13 of the last 19 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 9 of the last 17 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (7 wins) and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (12 of the last 21 between them)
• Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 5 winners
• 27 of the last 33 were novice hurdling last season
• 7 of the last 16 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (57 of the last 59 winners had)
• 14 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
Negatives….
• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 4 of the last 26 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
• French bred horses are 2-from-46 (last 18 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse and 2024 winner Fact To File were French-breds)
• The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 14 years
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 26 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race (last 28 runnings)
• Horses in headgear have a poor record
• Drinmore Novice Chase winners are 0-10
• Gordon Elliott runners are 0-11 since 2011
2:40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV
2025 Winner: JIMMY DU SEUIL (16/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Danny Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 21 were 2nd season hurdlers
• 19 of the last 25 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
• 13 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before (11 had top 4 finish)
• 12 of the last 16 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 12 of the last 17 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 16 of the last 26 winners aged 6 or 7
• 12 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 21 of the last 31 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Dan Skelton (2 of last 3), Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (9 wins in last 16 years)
• 11 of the last 24 winners were French-Bred
• 15 of the last 32 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (8 of the last 17)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (15 of last 17 winners)
• 18 of the last 21 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 15 runnings
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 12 (4 in total)
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
• 4 of the last 7 winners wore headgear
• The last 29 winners aged 9 or younger
• The last 10 year-old winner in 1995
Negatives….
• Just one winning favourite in the last 22 years (2020)
• Only 6 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 313 to even place since 1999
• Just 6 winners since 2000 aged 8+
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 & 2025, plus had the second in 2019, but overall has an average record – 56 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (2 wins Jimmy Du Seuil 2025 & Bleu Berry, 2018)
3:20 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV
2025 Winner: STUMPTOWN 5/2 (fav)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• The Irish have won 17 of the last 20 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 17 of the last 20 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 23 of the last 27 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 11 of the last 20 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
• 14 of the last 20 ran in either the Nov or Dec Cross Country races
• 16 of the last 20 winners had run on the course before
• Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (5 wins in total)
• 16 or the last 20 winners were aged 10 or younger
• 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or 9
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 8 runnings
• 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
• 10 of the last 20 winners had run in the NH Chase before
• 6 of the last 10 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
• 7 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 12 winners wore a tongue-tie
Negatives….
• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
• Just 4 of the last 15 winners won their last race
• Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
4:00 - BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV
2025 Winner: MARINE NATIONALE (5/1)
Trainer – Barry Connell
Jockey – Sean Flanagan
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 13 of the last 25 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 13 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 26 of the last 41 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 26 between them
• The last 5 winners were trained in Ireland
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 14
• 31 of the last 39 winners aged between 7-9
• 50% of the last 12 winners ran in the Shloer Chase (Cheltenham)
• 14 of the last 24 winners won last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 20 of the last 23 winners had run that calendar year
• 42 of the last 44 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 18 of the last 26 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 9 of the last 19 winners were French-bred
• 13 of the last 23 winners were second season chasers
• 18 of the last 20 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 23 of the last 27 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 18 of the last 26 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
Negatives….
• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
• Just 1 winner in last 21 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
• Just 3 of the last 24 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-6 (last 2 winners beaten in that DRF race)
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 50 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 46 years
• 7 of the last 8 odds-on favourites have lost (over the last 10 years)
• Just one mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)
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4:40 - Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV
2025 Winner: JAZZY MATTY
Trainer – Danny Gilligan
Jockey – Cian Collins
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or more
• 18 of the last 22 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 22 winners ran in the previous year’s renewal
• Irish have won 6 of the last 13 runnings
• 11 of the last 16 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 17 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners aged between 6-8
• 14 of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 22
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
• 13 of the last 15 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 7 of the last 17 runnings
• 5 of the last 11 winners won after a 91+ day break
• 12 of the last 14 winners were rated between 135-147
• 12 of the last 15 winners rated between 138-150
• 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or more in weight
• 22 of the last 26 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
• Course form is often a big plus
Negatives….
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 33 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
• Trainer Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 18
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 2 from 37 since 2005 – but last year’s winner Jazzy Matty was 6 and returned 15/2
• Only 2 of the last 21 winners were favourites
• Just 3 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
5:30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV
2025 Winner: BAMBINO FEVER (4/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Miss J Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 31 of the last 33 had won last time out (all of last 22)
• 26 of the last 33 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (26 from 42)
• 24 of the last 33 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 25 of the last 33 were Irish-bred
• 13 of the last 25 winners were second season horses
• 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 22 of the last 33 winners aged 5 years-old
• 22 of the last 24 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 12 of the last 23 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 16 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (14 winners) – 5 of the last 6
• The Irish lead the British 27-7 in the race history
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
• 14 of the last 23 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• Mares are 4-23 in the last 20 runnings (Total Enjoyment, Fayonagh, Relegate, Bambino Fever)
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run in February
• 3 of the last 7 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud
Negatives….
• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• Just 2 of the last 15 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
• Only 4 of the last 15 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 71 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
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Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- 2026 Greatwood Gold Cup Trends
- 2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 10th March 2026)
- 2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2026)
- 2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2026)
- Sat TV Trends: 21st Feb 2026
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