Royal Ascot 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips

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On we go, to the fourth day of Royal Ascot and the final day of our full preview coverage. Win, lose or draw, I hope you've enjoyed the contributions of our assembled panel. Victor Value, aka John Burke, and Gavin Priestley would very much appreciate you checking out their pages (through the banner images in the post) if you'd liked their style/work.

Let's go to Friday's card!

2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Victor Value

The Albany Stakes is a Group 3 contest open to two-year-old fillies only. It’s a relatively new race to  Royal Ascot being first run in 2002. Initially Listed status, it became a Group 3 in 2005.

Some useful fillies have won the race before going onto better things including:

Samitar (2011) - Went onto win the following year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas.

Cursory Glance (2014) – Won the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes later that season.

Brave Anna (2016) – Landed the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes that year.

Porto Fortuna (2023) – Proved even better as a 3-year-old winning three Group 1’s including the Coronation Stakes here.

 

Trends to Note

Taking a quick look at the ten-year trends, unlike some of the juvenile races at the meeting there hasn’t been a real surprise result. Horses sent off 22/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 86 runners, 3 places.

The ten most recent winners all shared the following trends:

- Won their last start (non-winners last time out are 0 winners from 60 runners, 6 places)
- Returned 17/2 or shorter on their previous start (those sent off 9/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 42 runners, 3 places)

Finally, delving into the draw, winners have come from all over the track in the past ten years. However, if you we look at the last five years in isolation, 10 of the 15 placed horses were drawn in stalls 1 to 8 including four of the five winners.

 

Contenders

Seventeen were declared for this year’s race.  Despite the size of the field, I like just five.

Balantina stepped up markedly on her debut run when making all to win Curragh maiden 26 days ago. Connections won that Curragh race with Porta Fortuna in 2023. I doubt she will prove as good as that multiple Group 1-winning filly, but she has each way claims from stall 4.

Signora was weak in the betting when a 2½ lengths 3rd of 6 to the useful Lady Iman in a Group 3 at Naas on her racecourse debut last month.  Tenderly handled in the closing stages there, she can win races on the evidence of that run. Her dam won the 2017 Queen Mary Stakes and trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2016. Strong claims from stall 11.

Green Sense was a winner on her debut at the Curragh in April and improved again when a ¾-length second to Lady Iman in that Naas Group 3.  She’s likely capable of a bit more improvement albeit might not have the upside of the third.

Oisin Murphy rode Balantina and Fitzella last time and has opted for the latter. The daughter of Too Darn Hot built on her racecourse debut promise when winning at Haydock 28 days ago. That performance marked her down as a useful juvenile prospect and she should be in the mix.

Gold Digger was an expensive (260,000gns) purchase at the Craven Breeze Up sales in April. The daughter of Starman overcame a slow start to win at Yarmouth on her debut 37 days ago. Well backed last time, like many of the fillies in the line-up she’s capable of more improvement.

Albany Stakes Verdict

Aidan O’Brien has already landed two of the Royal Ascot juveniles - prior to racing on Thursday - so one must respect the claims of Signora who was thrown in at the deep end on her racecourse debut. Balantina bids to follow in the hoofprints of stablemate Porta Fortuna who won this race two years ago. I think she's a solid each way chance. Fitzella and Gold Digger might prove the best of the British-trained fillies.

Selection: Try Balantina each way at 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

 

3.05 THE COMMONWEALTH CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A whopping 22 runners for this fantastic addition to the racing calendar generally, and to Royal Ascot more specifically. It's already produced some terrific races - and winners - and this year's renewal looks likely to continue in that vein. However, is it an open and shut case?

The favourite, at shorter than 2/1, is Guineas third and dual juvenile Group 1 winner including at 6f, Shadow Of Light. He shaped like a non-stayer at Newmarket, the mile always being the question mark (along with whether he'd trained on), but ran a cracker before fading in the final half furlong or so. This stiff straight six ought to be ideal, and stall 19 is probably helpful, too. He has a very obvious chance.

Against him are massed ranks, led by the filly Babouche. Classics were never entertained for this Ger Lyons-trained juvenile G1 winner, and she stepped up on a seasonal debut effort when winning the Group 3 Lacken Stakes, comfortably from Whistlejacket, last time out.

Whistlejacket reopposes here, and was also second the day Babouche bagged her Group 1, in the Phoenix Stakes over this trip. He's a very consistent horse, a G1 winner himself in France, and his form ties in closely with both the filly and Shadow Of Light for all that he's been beaten respectful distances by both as his head to head record shows:

 

 

Jonquil's profile is slightly different. Lightly raced, he's run three times at seven furlongs - winning either side of a Listed flop, firstly in a maiden and most recently in the Group 3 Greenham on seasonal debut - before stepping up to a mile last time. That was in the Poulains, the French 2000 Guineas and he was but a head shy of Henri Matisse, so the question is whether he has the speed for this assignment. He will be staying on when others can't but I'm not sure about the trip for all that he's clearly classy and progressive. Connections had Field Of Gold for the St James's Palace or presumably he'd have gone there.

The consistent Ides Of March could easily be on the premises again, but he's got a bit to find with a couple other than Shadow Of Light; ditto Big Mojo, who I half expected to go up in trip this season: this stiffer track will certainly suit - he's a course and distance winner from the trial race earlier this year - and his trainer is a master at getting the best out of sprinters.

The raiding party are headed by French-trained Rayevka and the US sprinter Shisospicy. The former has raced exclusively on the soft side of good and produced a huge career best last time in a Chantilly G3; that form, or a bit more if the faster ground helps, could grab her a podium spot.

Shisospicy has no going concerns, but will be running in a straight line in a race for the first time. She has a stone to find with Shadow Of Light and, though I'm glad she is here to add to the international flavour, I don't fancy her chances especially.

Of the rest, it's always dangerous writing off an Adrian Murray-trained sprinter, and Arizona Blaze was third in the Norfolk last year and ran a slightly unlucky second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's a well drawn pace angle and can take them along to the quarter pole and beyond - holding on to the finish will be trickier, of course.

Two more worth a mention are last year's Queen Mary winner, Leovanni, and the Nick Luck and Kevin Blake co-owned Lady With The Lamp. The first named is probably better at five furlongs and may not have trained on - bit too early to say - but she obviously fared well here previously; the latter has been unfancied, to some degree at least, on her most recent pair of starts, rallying from far back each time to score. She'll get a similar setup here and may not be a forlorn hope: it's hard to peg the form of deep closers.

It's a cracking race and one that revolves around SHADOW OF LIGHT. I think he probably just wins, tracking Arizona Blaze in the adjacent stall, and finishing strong. He's probably not even a terrible price given there's plenty of dead wood in the context of the grade in this field. A far more speculative each way alternative is Rayevka: she'll need the ground to eke out a bit more but, as a 'now' filly - coming off a big career top - a small win/place play might reward.

Suggestion: Back SHADOW OF LIGHT to win at 2/1 or bigger. Try a tiny e/w on Rayevka at 22/1 with all the extra places.

 

 

3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

There’s a growing sense of déjà vu here. Having suggested that high was the place to be in the King George V Handicap on Thursday, I ploughed into stall 17 as a win bet only to watch Sing Us A Song ruin his chance with a dreadful beginning, only made worse by seeing stalls 20 and 21 land the exacta. Arrrgggh!!

Here we are again, then. A big-field handicap where those who can finish off up the centre of the track are at an advantage, and I might just narrow the runners with a view to getting the exacta – or the swinger for the less adventurous (surely the swinger should be for the more adventurous?! No sniggering at the back!)

Long List: Horses who could reasonably be described as hold-up types drawn 12 or higher are as follows:

War Rooms
Siege of Troy
Teumessias Fox
French Duke
Mount Atlas
Stressfree
Flight Leader

Of that group, I have a clear preference for French Duke who I thought was unlucky here last year in the King George V Handicap, while I’d happily throw out Teumessias Fox who has been well beaten twice before at this meeting.

War Rooms represents last year’s winning connections and is worth including as he will be suited by a very strong pace having proven his stamina over further, while Siege of Troy is dropping in class having run in Listed and Group 3 contests. She’s exposed but a tongue tie could help here and I’m loth to throw her out.

Mount Atlas is probably too high in the weights, with a course and distance win coming off 15lb lower. He’ll run his race but might find at least two better at the wire. Stressfree has a win and a second from two runs over the trip this term and definitely merits his place, leaving Flight Leader of those drawn high. He has the draw and the run style, but his form is at shorter and I’m not sure he has the requisite stamina for the job.

 

Wildcards:

I’m never entirely sure about front runners from wide draws, but Almosh’her is unexposed and coming off a career best at the trip. Beaten by only one horse in his career, he’s widest of all in 22 and ticks enough boxes to make himself indispensable. Hand Of God came high, wide and handsome when winning over 1¼m here last year and should progress further. I’m not certain he wants 1½m but he was strong at the finish 12 months ago and merits respect as a previous Royal Ascot winner.

 

Verdict:

Perm the following in the exotic of your choice, depending on how risk-averse you are, included in order of preference:

French Duke
Stressfree
Almosh’her
War Rooms
Hand of God

 

4.20 THE CORONATION STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The traditional clash of the 1000 Guineas fillies from across Europe. With the Newmarket and Curragh winners, Desert Flower and Lake Victoria, both absent, it falls to promoted Pouliches scorer Zarigana to uphold the Classic form.

In that French 1000, she got the nod in a highly contentious stewards' decision from the syndicate-owned Charlie Fellowes-trained Shes Perfect. I've watched that replay from all angles countless times, and it genuinely felt like a stitch up to me for all that we know the French interference rules are far stricter (and, in my view, better) than ours. Anyway, to the form more generally. It's hard to say that that Classic race hasn't worked out because the disqualified winner and third and fifth all went up markedly in trip for the Prix de Diane. They made little impression there, shaping like none of them stayed. Still, Zarigana has won her last three races by a nose, a neck, and minus a nose! She looks one to take on at the prices.

Falakeyah is unbeaten in her two starts to date, both this season, and she's no sort of profile fit for a Coronation Stakes. But her form is a) good and b) very likely less than she's capable of. She laughed at Life Is Beautiful in a Listed race at Newmarket last time - that one was only two lengths behind the second in the Ribblesdale yesterday. While LIB stepped up a quarter mile, Falakeyah steps back the same distance and, on a turning track with a short straight like Ascot, which places more emphasis on speed than stamina unless they go a million, that's a niggle. Owen Burrows is highly selective and rarely places his horses in the wrong slot, but she again looks short given those reservations.

Another lightly raced unbeaten filly with form tie ins to Life Is Beautiful is Kon Tiki, trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam. Three from three so far, most recently in the mile Michael Seeley Memorial at York (Listed), she's got plenty more to offer but is a stone behind the highest rated on her performances thus far.

Ralph Beckett sends Chantilly Lace, lobbed in at the deep end in the manner of a Mexican cliff dive last time when going from Newbury novice to the 1000 Guineas. She ran a belter there to be two and a half lengths fifth, and has every right to make further progress here on just her third lifetime start.

January's juvenile form was strong - twice getting close to 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower - but she flopped on her seasonal bow and comes here needing to show she's trained on. The fact Ballydoyle have myriad fillies to pick from and Ryan lands on her implies she had; if that's right, and you can forgive her Irish Guineas flop, she's a fair price.

Stablemate Exactly has a higher rating than January, courtesy of her length defeat by Zarigana in the French 1000; it must be noteworthy that Ryan has shunned this one having ridden her in Paris. Exactly's form profile does hint that a softer sward would be preferable.

Ollie Sangster's 2-3 from Newmarket's 1000 Guineas ran 6th and 11th in the Curragh follow up, and perhaps Flight is the one that will prefer these rapid conditions. It was good to firm when she was second at HQ and she ought again to finish in front of Simmering, who will be having her fourth run of the campaign.

At a massive price, Duty First took a step forward from Newmarket (9th, beaten 12 lengths) to the Curragh (4th, beaten less than five lengths) in two Classic outings, and had earlier won the Fred Darling on her first 2025 outing. Archie Watson has an excellent Royal Ascot record so this filly could be a small bit of value at 66/1.

I'm not sure the market has this race right yet, and I was not surprised that the three I think are over-priced (or three of the four excluding the massive outsider) are showing blue on the odds grids. Still, you can have 8/1 about January, 11/1 Chantilly Lace, and 16/1 Flight. 66/1 is the price for Duty First and she's getting a tiny speculative from me also.

Suggestion: Split a point or two on January at 8/1 and Chantilly Lace at 11/1. Split a penny win and place on Duty First at 66/1.

 

5.00 THE SANDRINGHAM STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which are a bit sparse as far as strong patterns go.

 

Market Rank

Six wins for favourites and three for second favourites so despite having big fields generally (10 of the races with 20+ runners) the market has proved a good guide.

 

Weight Rank

Eight of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4th). This equates to 53% of the winners from just 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 15 were placed.

 

Position LTO

Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 27% of the total runners.

 

Price LTO

14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 8/1 or less LTO (from 200 runners). A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 17/2 or bigger LTO have won just once from 128 runners (11 placed).

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated massively between 15 and 30 runners so for my draw analysis I am doing what I did yesterday, using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Draw position in relation to stands rail PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5  stalls away 0.51 0.56
6 to 10  stalls away 0.52 0.57
11 to 15  stalls away 0.52 0.52
16 to 20  stalls away 0.42 0.42
21 or more stalls away 0.51 0.62

 

These figures give us a real conundrum as there is no clear pattern. It does seem that more fancied horses furthest away from the stands rail (the low draws) have performed the best.

 

Run Style

Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last 15 years. The splits are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.36 0.48
Prominent 0.44 0.46
Mid Division 0.49 0.52
Held up 0.59 0.62

 

A clear edge to hold up horses – a pattern we have seen before this week in the mile handicaps. In terms of wins we have seven wins for hold ups, six for mid pack runners and one apiece for prominent /early leaders.

 

Form Preview

I have four runners in this year's field that I particularly like:

Supermodel – Two wins from three starts including a comfortable success on seasonal reappearance at Nottingham. All three starts the horse has been held up which, as the trends show, has been a strong positive. Trainer William Haggas has not had the greatest record in handicaps at this meeting but in each of the last three years he has saddled one handicap winner, and I think Supermodel could make it four years running. Drawn 3.

Better Clover – She has run twice as Ascot, finishing eighth in the Queen Mary last year and then second beaten a neck a month later in the Group 3 Queen Margaret Stakes. She has run three times this year and shaped with promise in each, finishing fourth, second and third. The last run in France, in Group 2 company, was an eye-catching effort. William Buick was booked early for this one so I am guessing Eve Johnson Houghton  is very hopeful. In terms of run style Betty Clover tends to race mid pack or further back early which is ideal. Drawn 23 and second in the weights is a plus from the 15-year trends.

Silver Ghost – Is two from two this year with wins at Newmarket and Goodwood. She has gone up 8lb for that Goodwood win but that was impressive, especially considering that her draw may have been lower than ideal: she was in stall 6 and horses finishing second to seventh were drawn 12, 9, 16, 10, 13, 15; those finishing eighth to last were drawn 1, 5, 2, 7, 8, 4, 3. Drawn 20 here. In both of her wins this year she has been held up in rear early.

Miss Nightfall – She finished second to Silver Ghost at Goodwood. She was well beaten that day but would have finished closer if granted a clearer run between the one and the two pole. Drawn 28 and looks a lively outsider.

 

Suggestion

Try Supermodel to win at 8/1 & Betty Clover e/w at 12/1 (several bookies going six places again, Sky Bet seven)

 

5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

For the purposes of the trends we'll overlook the result from 2020 because, due to Covid, the Derby was actually run after Royal Ascot that year.

So, as is usual for this race we have a field made up of a couple of also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable, a couple of winners stepping up from novice company, and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some black type and place money.

Traditionally sandwiched in the middle of the Epsom and Irish Derby's, the 'Ascot Derby' is a poor shadow of either of those Group 1's and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time. However, the Epsom second did run, and win, in 2023. In fact, 5 of the last 8 winners had their last start at Epsom where they had finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th (twice).

This year we have just two runners from the Derby taking part, Nightwalker and Green Storm, neither of whom looked like getting competitive at Epsom. The pair had met previously when a distant 3rd and 4th in the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket back in April with Nightwalker doing best there but it was Green Storm who won their private battle at Epsom when finishing 7th. As a 2yo Green Storm had finished within 2 lengths of the likely favourite here, Amiloc, in a Kempton maiden and was 1 1/2 length behind the Derby 3rd Tennessee Stud in a French Group 1 at the back end of last season.

Of the two that ran in the Derby I'd side with Green Storm to do the best and he does look a pretty big price if able to reproduce some of that 2yo form. He hasn't managed it yet but the stable remain convinced he's still got it in him and this is nowhere near as competitive as that headline G1. I'd expect him to seriously outrun his current 40/1 odds and I'll probably have a little side bet on him.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race with a top four finish (unless it was the Epsom Derby). All of the last nine winners were rated 103+ and interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had yet to win a Group race. It also hasn't paid to get too fancy in this race recently with all of the last 7 non-Covid renewals having gone to horses at 6/1 or under from the top three in the betting.

Which leads me to the selection. I'm going to make my main bet another horse that looks majorly overpriced. In fact, his odds look so wrong it's making me think I've missed something because in my mind there is no way this horse should be 14/1 on what we've seen from him so far this Season. I'm expecting him to be gambled on and go off at single figure odds.

CONVERGENT has had three races, two novice races at Redcar that have worked out very well with multiple winners coming out of both races, and the Group 3 Chester Vase where he ran 3rd to the Aidan O'Brien trained Lambourn: the same Lambourn that skated home in the Derby where he beat the Chester Vase second Lazy Griff. Not only have the front two from that race confirmed the form in the best possible way, the 15 length 6th from the race has also come out and won a Group 3 since. 14/1 is massive for a horse who ticks the boxes, has the ideal profile for this race and has top form to back it up. Clifford Lee is back onboard, who has a 100% 2-2 record on him, and the trainer has been knocking on the door with a few of his runners this week. Everything is in place for a big run... Non-runner, aaaargh

SELECTION: CONVERGENT 1pt EW 14/1 (Paddypower) Small each way on Green Storm at 40/1

6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

I’ve enjoyed doing these write-ups for Geegeez this week but there’s not been a lot of big-priced ones that I’ve fancied for readers to get stuck into. Well, it might have taken until Friday, but I’ve found three I like and if I can bag the winner from them, I’m hopeful I might get called back to have another go next year… [you're in! - Ed.]

I started by looking at Redorange, trained by Clive Cox, as he’s a gelding I’ve been keen on since I saw him win at Yarmouth last year. He won well that day, and I decided he’d be a horse I’d follow this year. I wasn’t the only one, as he was backed off the boards to win at Chester on his second start of the season, the 9-4 in the morning evaporating to just 11-10 at the off. Chester suited him down to the ground; in greyhound parlance, quickly away, early pace, led late on, always doing enough. 

I wonder whether Ascot will suit him as well, and in any case let’s revisit Redorange’s first run of the year at Sandown where he still ran well but only finished third. In front of him that day in second was Brosay, who finished off well and, whilst not an unlucky loser, jumping the path late on certainly didn’t help his cause. He finished ¾ length in front of Redorange there, yet is 7lb better in here, and is over twice the price. That, to me, makes no sense, and given Ascot should suit, and the fast ground will hold no fears, at 20-1 and bigger he heads up my list. 

The other two both come from the Queen Mary last year, and both look overpriced, given Royal Ascot form - much like Cheltenham Festival form it often translates well from year to year. 

Karl Burke’s Miss Lamai finished fourth to Leovanni last year, and the theory was that she’d be a speedy 2yo and no more. To be fair to her she was highly tried after that, taking in a couple of Grade 3s in France and, whilst not disgraced in either, it did look as if that might be her lot. 

However, on her latest start, in the Westow Stakes at York, she took a good step forward running on in taking style to finish third to the useful Tropical Storm and in front of good sorts like Aesterius and Mr Lightside. It would appear, on that, she’s not done yet, and I can see this test suiting her well. We know she acts on fast ground at Ascot so that’s not a concern, and with the handicapper leaving her alone after York when he could have very easily given her another couple of pounds, 25-1 looks a price I can get involved with. 

And finally… We come to the 2024 Queen Mary third Maw Lam. Now, at first glance she’s a harder one to love, as her form this year hasn’t been as good as it was last year; but I think you can find excuses - not that she needs one for her seasonal reappearance, a fifth in the Fred Darling, a perfectly acceptable effort. At Cork next time, she didn’t get the best of runs as she came from the rear but still finished sixth, and at Haydock last time she ran too free, and was a spent force late. With Jack Nicholls taking a useful 7lb off, she looks on a fair mark and, like Miss Lamai, we know these conditions suit her well. 40/1? Yep, add her to the shortlist…

Three against the field: Brosay 22/1, Miss Lamai 18/1, Maw Lam 40/1

 

Royal Ascot 2025: Day 3 Preview, Tips

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Into 'hump day', better known as Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3 - we go. The marathon Group 1 is the feature and, with the weather set fair it will be riding quick, so let's get straight to it.

2.30 THE NORFOLK STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Victor Value

The Norfolk Stakes is a Group 2 run over five furlongs. First run in 1843, it was renamed in 1973 in honour of the 16th Duke of Norfolk, Queen Elizabeth II’s Representative at Ascot from 1945 to 1972. The race achieved its Group 2 status in 2006.

Trends to Note

In recent years, this race has sprung the odd huge surprise. The Ridler (2022) scored at 50/1, and the following year Valiant Force (2023) won at 150/1!

I’m not digging deep into trends today, but from a draw perspective it’s worth noting that horses drawn 11+ are 0 winners from 37 runners, 6 places. That’s an interesting trend given the Exp/Wins=3.28 for those runners.

Contenders

Sixteen have been declared for this year’s Norfolk Stakes, and the first thing that stands out is that short-priced favourite Charles Darwin is drawn in stall 15.

After a good look, just four runners have made my final shortlist:

Charles Darwin: Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the son of No Nay Never has made all to win his last two (of three) starts at Navan. Looked a high-class juvenile last time, visually impressive, and the time backed that up. At a best-priced 13/8 on Tuesday afternoon, he looked value based on form good enough to win the last five renewals. The only negative is his high draw.

Sandal’s Song: Overcame a slow start to show good speed when winning on debut at Gulfstream Park (firm ground). A sprinting type on looks, he’s been purchased by Wathnan Racing, and if he handles a straight track, I think he’ll go very close. Triner George Weaver saddled the 2023 Queen Mary winner, subsequently bought by Wathnan, so he knows what is required to win a Royal Ascot juvenile contest.

Naval Light (Karl Burke): Bought for 360,000 gns at the Craven Breeze-ups by Wathnan Racing. Finished second to Old Is Gold in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley on racecourse debut. He was slowly away that day and ran green in the early stages of the race but once the penny dropped, finished off well. Burke won this last year with a colt who had won the Beverley race. Retained jockey James Doyle opts for him over Sandal’s Song with James McDonald riding the latter which is no negative.

Afjan: The speedy son of Mehmas overcame greenness to win on debut at Chantilly 18 days ago. He produced a high-class turn of foot to win that day and is open to plenty of improvement. I was impressed with this success, and I think the stiffer Ascot 5f will suit.

Norfolk Stakes Verdict

I only fancy four of the 16 runner’s - cue a big- priced winner like The Ridler or Valiant Force!  I will be quite surprised if one of that quartet doesn’t win. Charles Darwin’s form is rock solid and he’s a worthy favourite. However, I want to take him on because of the draw and his price. His nearest market rival is Naval Light who will win races this season and most likely at Group level.  However, I was hoping for better than a best priced 4/1.  At bigger odds I prefer American challenger Sandal’s Song - he looks a big price to me - and French-trained colt Afjan.

Selection: Afjan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Despite being over a mile and a half and with the low stalls on the inside these days (it wasn’t ever thus), there is no advantage to be drawn in single figures in the King George V Handicap (or the Duke of Edinburgh over the same track and trip for the three-year-olds); and, to demonstrate, I’ve compiled the results by draw since 2001, which shows that nine horses have won the race from single figure draws, but that ten have won from stall 15 or higher in the same timeframe. So punters should consider those drawn high to be at some sort of advantage, for all that may seem to defy conventional wisdom. In reality, the stiff track confers no advantage to front runners, and those coming from off the pace tend to fan out from the inner rail in the straight, with travelling a little further no hardship in the grand scheme of things.

That isn’t to say that you can’t win from a low draw, but those who do are rarely helped by a position near the rail, except in the rare circumstance where the fastest ground is on the far rail, as it was in 2022, when the race was dominated by those who sat handily. The first six home in the Norfolk Stakes that year were all drawn low, and if that is repeated then you should take note. When the draw on the straight course favours high numbers, then that tends to be repeated on the round course, too, and early signs are that will be the case this year.

It's possible to make all from a wide draw, although those who have done so have tended to keep off the inside rail until near the turn, and recent years have shown a bias towards strong-staying hold-up performers from high-to-mid berths. Last year Going The Distance (stall 18) beat Neski Sherelski (19) and if you listened to Simon Holt’s commentary, you’ll notice that they are called as the last pair to reach the home turn. In 2023, Desert Hero (21) had three or four behind him on the home turn before winning. In contrast the last three positions that year were filled by horses drawn wide who were up with the pace.

On the face of it, Sing Us A Song is likely to be one of the front runners here having made all to win on his handicap debut at Sandown last time, but I think that James Doyle will be more patient than Hector Crouch was there. Sing Us A Song gallops like a stayer and Crouch took him forward last time to utilise his stamina over a trip which is a minimum for him, fending off challenges in the straight and never stronger than up the climb to the line at Sandown.

Given the extra demands on stamina here, there is no need to be aggressive on Sing Us A Song, who strikes me as the type to take another leap forward in form terms for this stiffer test and I hope that Doyle allows him to find his stride in the early stages before launching a bid from off the pace. He is a full-brother to the ill-fated Sir Erec, who was placed in the British Champions Long Distance Cup as a three-year-old and a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, but sadly broke a leg when favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. His dam is also a half-sister to Mahler, who was placed in the St Leger and Melbourne Cup, so all the signs are that this trip and further are going to bring out the best in him. I like him a lot.

Recommendation: Sing Us A Song (Win/Each-way) at 8/1 with bet365 (5 places)

 

3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A mile and a half for three-year-old fillies - an Ascot Oaks if you will. Being so close to the original (and still the best) Epsom variant means we only have one filly - Go Go Boots - coming here from there, and she's not especially fancied by the market. The top three from the betting lists have fared well enough - bagging eight of the last twelve Ribblesdales between them - but the jolly has only two wins in that time.

Aidan and Johnny G (now with Thady G as well) have won most of that dozen, three-quarters in fact, the Ballydoyle man owning most recent bragging rights as he and Ryan Moore have paired up to take the most recent two renewals. Not since Lady Cecil's Riposte won in 2013 has a filly unraced at two won the Ribblesdale, which might be a concern for the top two in the current lists, Serenity Prayer and Catalina Delcarpio.

Serenity Prayer is trained by Andrew Balding and won a traditionally strong Newbury fillies' maiden on debut before beating all bar Whirl in the Musidora, the key Oaks trial, at York last time. Nevertheless, she was more than five lengths inferior to the winner on the Knavesmire though it should of course be noted that Whirl all but won the Oaks, beaten just a neck. After just two starts she can be expected to stride forward on what she's shown to date.

Go Go Boots was only a neck behind Serenity Prayer at York and, if she just didn't handle Epsom, she is over-priced.

The same is true of Catalina Delcarpio whose form figures of 12 mirror Serenity's. She's trained by Paddy Twomey, and also won a maiden easily - at Leopardstown in her case - before running second in a Group 3. That form has not worked out well, though the winner was fourth at Epsom and most of the rest were beaten far enough.

The Moore / O'Brien axis is represented by a far more experienced filly in Garden Of Eden. She's been second and first in a brace of Listed contests either side of her winter break, but was well enough beaten in a couple of mile Group 3's at the start of this term. Stepping up to ten furlongs last time, she led all the way in the Naas Oaks Trial; her pedigree hardly screams she wants to go further but who am I to second guess the great man?

John and Thady run two more candidates as well as Go Go Boots, led by Life Is Beautiful. Thrice raced, she won a Kempton maiden on debut before running second to a nice filly in a novice back at the same track (both mile races). Upped to a mile and a quarter last time saw her run up again, behind the unbeaten Coronation Stakes favourite Falakeyah.

Understudy may be just that here. She's got a lovely staying pedigree - by Sea The Stars out of a Selkirk mare - but this is huge leap in grade from a Class 5 Southwell novice. Still, she's bound to be capable of better in time.

Charlie Johnston saddled Caspi Star to be third to Oaks winner Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks. She was beaten half the distance Serenity Prayer was by Whirl, with Minnie Hauk edging that one out, so 10/1 this lass feels more attractive than 3/1 the jolly. She's improved a stone and more in two runs since getting bested by Lady Vivian, though that one has also stepped forward and doubled up in a handicap at the Chester May meeting last time.

Aidan O'Brien also runs Ecstatic and Island Hopping, the former another experienced filly for whom excuses can be made the last couple of starts: messy race, no run at Newbury and may not have handled the soft turf at Navan the time before. She does need them, however. Island Hopping was behind Garden Of Eden in Listed class last time but may be slightly more stoutly bred and may also be enlivened by the first time blinkers.

Suggestion: I think the percentage play is Garden Of Eden at around 5/1 win only despite the stamina reservation. She did seem to improve for the extra quarter mile last time and, if she can do likewise for a further two-eights, she's value against the inexperienced pair atop the market. Caspi Star at 10's might be an interesting small each way play based on her Chester run..

 

4.20 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A smallish field of eight line up for the Blue Riband and, in the absence of the sadly retired Kyprios, it's a more open contest than might otherwise have been the case. The question is, does Aidan O'Brien have a ready made replacement for his injured star stayer in the shape of Illinois?

Four-year-old have won all bar four of the last dozen Gold Cups, and of the quartet of older winners, three were repeaters who'd won prevoiusly aged four - Kyprios once and Stradivarius twice. Without a repeater, the youngest eligible age group looks the right focus. It's another race where Messrs O'Brien and the Gosdens have something of a hegemony with both well invested this time around.

The favourite, Illinois, comes from Ballydoyle and is from the penultimate crop of mega-sire Galileo. Winner of the Queen's Vase this time last year, he finished the season with second in the St Leger; this season's pipe opener was a cosy success in the Ormonde Stakes and he comes here in fine fettle, the second from Chester going a place better at York last weekend. This is, however, a step up in trip and in class, Illinois never having raced beyond the extended mile and three quarters of the St Leger. He seems an uncomplicated sort so ought to give himself every chance of relaxing into a good rhythm, though he does usually race handily.

Second choice is the Gosdens' Trawlerman, a perennial forward goer. He stays well and acts on quick turf as he showed when a length behind Kyprios in the race last year, a repeat of which would likely be good enough to take top honours this time around. He won by five lengths on his return from Dubai, in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. He's likely to bid to make all but, at seven years young, time may not be on his side against less exposed rivals.

One of those is the French raider Candelari, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard. He made his debut on the all-weather through the winter before seamlessly reverting to turf; his second grass spin, last time out, was a staying on win in the almost two miles Prix Vicomtesse Vigier, a Group 1. A feature of his races is switching off and rattling home late: he'll not have too much time to gather his thoughts in the short home straight at Ascot but he looks like he'll relish the extra range. This will be just his sixth career start so there's probably more in the lockeur.

It would be a shock, to me at least, if any of the rest were to win. Sweet William was five lengths behind Trawlerman last term and is a year older now; Wonder Legend improve 16lb on the all-weather through the winter but this is big ask (he's vaguely interesting e/w); and I don't expect the veterans Coltrane, Yashin or Dubai Future to, well, have a future, in the context of this G1 at any rate.

Illinois might be the one but he's a fair bit to prove at his sub-2/1 quote. I think Trawlerman likely just sets it up for a younger closer - though fair play to him if I'm wrong on that; and so the one I'm siding with is Frenchie Candelari, whose chance will depend to some degree on Mikael Barzelona getting his fractions right. He doesn't always. Will it be Ooh la la! or Zut alors?!

Suggestion: Back CANDELARI to win at 10/3 (or 3/1 or better).

 

5.00 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

The Thirsk piece of form where Terroom beat Parole D’Oro is where I’m going to start this form guide for the Brittania, as the pair of them feature highly towards the top of the market, and I think it might be a strong piece of form. 

Terroom came out on top by ¾l that day, but Parole D’Oro travelled like the best horse (traded 1.03 in the run) and just couldn’t quite finish the job off. Terroom went on to show the form as solid by winning again at Haydock, beating Tilted Kilt ¾l.

Going back to Thirsk, Parole D’Oro was giving Terroom 2lb that day, yet gets 4lb today, plus there’s the addition of a tongue tie, which you’d like to think would help him see it out a little stronger. That 6lb turnaround in the weights makes me think Parole d’Oro can reverse form today, and I like where he’s berthed, in stall 24, with a potential pace angle in The Lost King next door in 25 to give him a tow into it.

At 33s and bigger, despite what looks a moderate draw, Mr Chaplin has to be on the shortlist too. We liked him a lot, physically, when winning a nursery at Glorious Goodwood last year (paddock pick) and, off the back of that, he took his chance against The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court in the Group 3 Acomb at York. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he was unable to land a blow against such classy opposition but ran respectably and was spotted running on late. He tried making all in the Flying Scotsman on his final start of last year and on the figures ran his best race of the season to finish fourth. 

He didn’t reappear until May this season when eighth at Goodwood but that doesn’t begin to tell the story, as he was in a good position to challenge two furlongs out but was constantly denied a run up the rail - a horror story we’re all too familiar with at that track - and in the end, Richard Kingscote accepted the situation and allowed him to come home in his own time. He lost multiple places late as a result, and to me he shaped as if he retains all of his ability. A mile today is a new test for him but the way he finished off at Goodwood when winning over seven suggests he might even improve a bit for it. If the draw does beat him today, keep him in mind for something similar in the near future. 

Middle draws certainly didn’t hamper the chances of anyone on Day One, and Raafedd’s stall 14, smack in the middle, looks a very good place to work from. You couldn’t help but be impressed with the way he beat Accentuate at Newbury last time out, leading a full two furlongs out, then powering clear and geared down to win two lengths. The second did the form no harm when scoring by three lengths at Windsor last week, giving the form a very solid look, and the time figure for Raafedd’s win at Newbury was good too. 

This step up to a mile will surely suit him even better, and there has to be more to come from this son on Teofilo, you fancy. He rounds out my three against the field for the race. 

Three against the field: Parole d'Oro 11/1, Raafedd 11/1, Mr Chaplin 33/1

 

5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

TRENDS

A typical Hampton Court winner has yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners), has an official rating of 103+ (14/15), has raced 3-6 times in their career (14/15), came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15) and returned less than 8/1 (14/15). 13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).

3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).

In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2, and all 6 horses that last ran on the all-weather have been beaten.

RACE ANALYSIS:

A cracking looking race with the Aidan O'Brien French Derby 4th Trinity College heading the betting. With the first six home that day finishing in a heap, and with just a length and a half covering them all, it's hard to say what the form's worth. On his previous start Trinity College had been beaten by the now re-opposing Sea Scout at Epsom and, with that rival trading as a 66/1 outsider here, that's either a great price on him or a worthless piece of form. With Sea Scout subsequently finishing 8th in the Dante and 11th in the Derby I'm leaning towards the latter.

Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but failed to get home.

One horse who the latter definitely applies to is the 2000 Guineas 4th TORNADO ALERT who looks an absolutely massive price if over his Derby exertions from just 12 days ago. A staying on 4th at Newmarket over a mile, where he was just four lengths off Field of Gold, he was doing some good work late on and caught the eye of a lot of expert judges. His trainer was happy to talk up his chances for the Derby but, on the day, the 1m4f trip seemed to find him out and he patently didn't stay the last couple of furlongs.

He looks sure to appreciate the drop back to this intermediate 10f trip and he is one of the few runners in the field with genuine Group 1 form. He scores highly on the trends and his trainer won this in 2017 (stable have had just one runner in the race since) with a 113-rated horse that came here on the back of a 5th in the Derby. Top international jockey James McDonald is booked and there's so much to like about his chances I'll be shocked if he isn't involved at the finish.

SELECTION: TORNADO ALERT 1pt EW

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6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2010 to 2014 and 2020 to 2024.

10-year trends

Market

Just one win for horses from the top four of the betting. (English Oak last year when fav).

Six winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.

 

Age

4yos have won five of the last ten but they have provided 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (double other age groups combined).

7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 47 runners.

 

LTO Price

Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from 40% of the total runners.

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 runners so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last 10 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account,  so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Draw position in relation to stands rail PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5  stalls away 0.58 0.59
6 to 10  stalls away 0.61 0.64
11 to 15  stalls away 0.45 0.49
16 to 20  stalls away 0.47 0.48
21 or more stalls away 0.42 0.44

 

As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years.

 

Run Style

Now I am looking at the PRBs for each run style group based on the last ten years. The splits are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.49 0.49
Prominent 0.37 0.42
Mid Division 0.52 0.53
Held up 0.57 0.58

 

Based on these past figures, hold up horses have had the edge here, followed by mid pack runners. Indeed, eight of the last ten winners came from one of these two run styles.

Onto my favoured candidates:

Never So Brave – Now with Andrew Balding having formerly been with Sir Michael Stoute. He has had one run this season at Chester where he pulled far too hard and then had to be switched just over a furlong from home. Was the fastest finisher in the field that day running 0.23 secs quicker than anything else in the final furlong. Finished second but should have won. He has been raised 4lb which looks fair. Is drawn next to English Brave in 28 and has the assistance of the excellent Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Often races prominently but hopefully he will be ridden with a little more restraint.

English Oak – He won this race last year extremely impressively off a handicap mark of 99. He is one 1lb higher here. That performance was rated at 114 by Racing Post Ratings. Since then, he has failed to register a win in seven starts but his last run when sixth at Newbury showed some promise in a race that was slowly run. Last year, this race was run at a very strong pace and despite there being no genuine front runners in the field one would expect the same again here which will play to his strengths. Draw 27 should be OK.

No Retreat – He ran well at the start of the year in Dubai winning a decent handicap at Meydan in February before finishing a neck second to Silver Sword at the same track in an even better handicap three weeks later. He was down to run in the Victoria Cup last month but was withdrawn on the morning of the race. He then went to Haydock where he finished a decent third. No Retreat has been very consistent, always making the top three throughout his career. He races off 97 which is 3lbs higher than his Dubai second mentioned above and he looks overpriced at around 25/1. The draw in 1 though is a concern, unless earlier straight track races suggest otherwise. Has raced midfield / near the back in four of his last five runs so hopefully we see the same tactics employed here.

Gorak – At a big price Gorak is interesting. He ran in the race in 2023 and 2024 finishing 12th both times. However, he had valid excuses both times. In 2024 he was badly drawn but was a close up second on his part of the track. In 2023 he stuck to the stands rail and finished first of six in his group, but the centre of the course was strongly favoured that day. If he gets a run he will be drawn 10 which is still lower than ideal, but the likely price will compensate.

 

Conclusion

English Oak would win this easily if back to last year’s form but at 5/1 or thereabouts the price is just too tight IMO.

 

Suggestion

Never So Brave e/w at 8/1 and No Retreat e/w at 25/1

If Gorak runs has a small e/w saver at around 33/1

Several bookies are going six places (Bet 365, Betfred, Boyal Sports, Corals, Paddy Power to name but five), seven places with Sky Bet.

 

 

Royal Ascot 2025: Day 2 Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

It's Day Two, Wednesday, at the Royal Ascot jamboree and we're blessed once more with a magnificent seven races headlined by the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes for older horses over a mile and quarter. As with each weekday of the Royal meeting, I'm sharing preview responsibilities with a collective of talented and shrewd racing writers. Still, it's me on the kick off legs and we start with some classy young fillies in the...

2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A massive field of 25 juvenile fillies go to post for the five furlong Queen Mary Stakes. Most have had just one, or perhaps two, runs so form is thin on the ground; virtually all of them will be capable of more than they've shown so far. So how do choose among them? We could try some trends.

The first thing I noticed was a draw angle. In the last ten years, field sizes have ranged from 17 to 26. The winner in 2023 was drawn 26 of 26. The year before she was in 17 of 21; in 2021, she was 21 of 21; in Covid year, of course, the winner was drawn 1 of 18!; and before that, 22 of 25, 16 of 22, 20 of 23, 14 of 17, and 17 of 20. These are 'actual' stall positions after accounting for non-runners.

Last year's winner, Leovanni, exited stall 10, and the second - a 50/1 shot - departed from stall 22 of 24. It probably helps to be high, or at least close to either rail (though, given jockeys tend to race together, that probably still means high). Clear as mud?

In spite of the enormous fields, the first or second favourite has won six times and returned a profit on level stakes.

An American-trained filly has won four times in the last decade, most recently George Weaver's Crimson Advocate in 2023. Karl Burke has won two of the last three Queen Mary renewals, and his three entries were 3rd/5th/7th of 26 in the non-winning year.

The last eight winners all had a prominent run style, and the other two in the ten year trends led.

Five of the last ten winners were unbeaten in one before the race; only the Wes Ward speedball Lady Aurelia, in 2015, had yet to win, and even three outsiders (18/1, 22/1 and 25/1) were last day scorers.

Those are some reasonable angles to go at. The high drawn last day winners are America and Viamarie, both big prices. The top two in the market are Zelaina, trained by Karl Burke for last year's winning owner, Wathnan Racing, and American raider Lennilu, trained by Pat Biancone. Both fancied fillies are drawn middle, which didn't stop Leovanni last year but may be sub-optimal. I'll also throw in Secret Hideaway and Harry's Girl, whose form looks strong.

Karl Burke runs two this time, Zelaina being much the more obvious. As a £650,000 breeze up purchase she's entitled to be fast and she lived up to that billing when sprinting away from her field on debut at Nottingham, eventually scoring by almost three lengths. The time wasn't dazzling and she got a highly efficient ride (finishing speed percentage was 100.85%) but it was visually very impressive: quick from the gate, travelled strongly, pulled clear. She's just not much of a price.

The US filly, Lennilu, started with a win on the slop at Keeneland before shipping down to Florida for a turf stakes race. She showed good early speed there - perenially a feature of American entries at Royal Ascot - and galloped right through the line. That was a flat five around a bend, however, and this is a straight five with a stiff finish. I expect she'll be typically front rank through three furlongs and then who knows? Luis Saez, one of the world's best riders, makes his British debut.

While we're guessing as to the substance of the form with those once raced fillies, Harry's Girl has run twice and winners have emerged from her encounters. Of the two runs, her second in the Marygate has been advertised with the three subsequent runners - having finished 6th, 8th and 9th at York - all winning. But the Marygate winner and third, Secret Hideaway and Love Olivia, the latter being Burke's other entry, also rock up for this dance.

Love Olivia blazed the trail in the Marygate but was spent by the time Secret Hideaway, trained by Adrian Keatley, wore down Harry's Girl (Richard Hannon) in the last strides having been off the speed for much of the race. It's likely the winner is the best of the three and I'm a little surprised she's a longer price than the filly she beat. They're drawn adjacent, in 18 and 19, which is ostensibly a positive for both. It's worth noting that the Marygate winner has won the Queen Mary four times since 2006.

In the long grass - it's a race that has rewarded such boldness on occasion - Viamarie comes from the Kempton poly to the Ascot turf which can kindly be described as an unfashionable route. But she showed a lot of late speed that day having been slowest from the gate. She'd need to improve her start, which she ought to given the benefit of that experience, and she'll be running on late, though perhaps/probably too late.

Brian Meehan has run 26 juveniles at Royal Ascot since 2009, winning twice (including 80/1 Rashabar in last year's Coventry) and notching a second, three thirds and a fifth placed finish. As such, his America is not without hope. She was only third on debut, in a 6f Yarmouth maiden, seeming not to quite get home. The fourth and seventh, as well as America herself, have won since. Dropped to the fairly stiff five furlongs at Bath last time, she showed good mid-race speed to take the lead and ran on gamely. The second won next time. Stall 24 might help her cause.

True Love's form was given an almighty boost yesterday, with her last day conqueror and stablemate Gstaad bolting up in the Coventry. She was only three-quarters of a length behind him, a literal interpretation of which means she's home for all money. But Aidan has not fared well in the Queen Mary: it's one of the few Royal Ascot non-handicaps he's never won.

Society Kiss, a maiden winner over course and distance, and Staya, another punchy breeze up purchase who won her sole start, at Yarmouth, are others to consider in a race where we'll all be wiser afterwards!

Suggestion: Try small win savers on Lennilu at 15/2 and Staya at 12/1, and a slightly bolder each way play on Secret Hideaway at 22/1 (5 places with Sky/PP). Hail (Queen) Mary players could do worse than throw a miniscule dart at America, 40/1 with 5 places. Naturally, the short-priced favourite might beat them all.

 

3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A baker's dozen is entered for the 1m6f Queen's Vase, Group 2 for three-year-olds. The race was run over two miles prior to 2017 when it also upgraded from Listed class to its current status.

Aidan O'Brien has won half of the most recent twelve renewals, though Illinois's win last year was the Ballydoyle maestro's first since 2020. Ryan Moore has ridden four of Aidan's five winners since 2015.

The longest priced winner since the race changes eight years ago was Kemari in 2021; he returned 15/2 second favourite. The top three in the betting have had the top spot on the podium in a scarcely relenting half nelson since 2003, only Sword Fighter - Aidan's non-Ryan-ridden winner - returning north of 15/2. For completeness, the 2007 winner, Mahler, was fourth favourite when winning at 7/1. The other 20 of the last 22 winners were all top three in the market.

Aloft in 2015 is the only winner since 2002 to start from a double figure stall, exiting 'actual' stall 10 of 13. Five of the last 12 winners were drawn 2-5.

Only two of the last twelve winners were held up, with two - including last year's scorer - making all and five more racing handily (three were mid-division).

So, on recent evidence, we're after a fancied horse from a lowish stall with a bit of tactical speed to hold a position in the front half of the field. The two which most obviously fit the bill are Shackleton and Carmers.

Shackleton is the Aidan/Ryan entry and about as obvious a bet as you will find all week. A son of Camelot, he's stepping up fully half a mile from a couple of ten furlong races where he was outpaced. He ought to have the gears to find a handy slot early from stall three and, though stamina is unproven, connections' fingerprints are all over this one.

Paddy Twomey send Carmers, an inexperienced but highly progressive sort who is two from two, both this season. He started out in a Ballinrobe maiden and followed up in a Navan Listed contest, easily by three lengths - both races so far over a mile and five. So no stamina doubts, some proven class and lots of upside potential. This is a bigger field, though, and a third career start in six weeks. He has a very similar profile to the 2023 winner, Gregory.

Francis-Henri Graffard sends the Aga Khan Estate's Sottsass colt Asmarani across la Manche, and he's another which was unraced at two. In three goes this year, he was second either side of a Saint-Cloud maiden score, most recently in a Group 3. All three runs were on soft or very soft, but it is presumed that the trainer believes he'll improve for better ground. He'll need to on the face of it.

The Gosdens have Devil's Advocate, a staying on fourth in the Dante at York when last seen. He's another for whom stamina is not assured, being by Too Darn Hot, a reasonable miler influence. His damsire is Nathaniel, which offer plenty more hope, and his half-brother was second at a mile and a half. Still not sure! Nevertheless, that Dante run is probably the best form shown so far notwithstanding that many will improve for the longer distance here.

I'm keeping this fairly simple and siding with SHACKLETON, with a small saver on Carmers. I'll let the rest beat me, which they very well might do...

Suggestion: Back Shackleton at 3/1 or bigger. Save on Carmers at 5/1 or bigger.

 

3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

You have to say that, even with a 3lb penalty to carry for her Dahlia Stakes win, Cinderella’s Dream is going to be hard to beat here. 

She panned Elmalka 4½ lengths there and even though the latter is dropping back to a mile, which will help, it’s hard to see how she turns that form around. In any case, that was Cinderella’s Dream merely backing up what she’d shown in two previous starts, and she looks every bit as good at 4 as she did last year. She probably needs no more than a repeat of that Dahlia effort to come out on top, with her nearest rival on ratings, Fallen Angel, looking to bounce back after a lesser effort in the Lockinge. She looked very much in need of the run beforehand and sweated up badly,  so can possibly be forgiven, but you’d not want to see similar behaviour today. She’s going to be tried in a pair of cheekpieces after that below par Newbury effort, which might help her cause, but she just has a few question marks over her at present. 

Running Lion is of some interest now she drops back to a mile. Winner of this race last year, beating Laurel a ready two lengths, she’s been running perfectly well over further, her second in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day as good a piece of form as anything she’s shown; but I think she’s best around this sort of trip, rather than further. Her form is very hit-and-miss, so the addition of cheekpieces could be a catalyst for her to return to her best, which would give her a fair chance. Definitely not an each-way bet, but a small saver on her at 8-1? I couldn’t put you off. 

One Look keeps progressing with every start and her ½ length second to Porta Fortuna in the Lanwades Stakes rates a very good effort. She tries hard, which I always think is half the battle won with fillies, and might not have finished improving yet. She’s been highly consistent, which isn’t something you can say for many of these, but the one time she tackled good to firm ground was a disappointment, so she does have that question to answer. 

Of those at double-figure prices, Soprano, who can’t have it quick enough, is probably the one that appeals most. There’s no doubt she has to take another step forward form-wise, but she at least comes here fit and running well after her win at Kempton in the Listed Snowdrop Fillies Stakes. She’s a keen-going sort and could be vulnerable late, but on what promises to be rattling fast ground, she could be a danger to all if allowed to bounce along on the front end with a soft lead. 

Selection: Cinderella's Dream at 2/1

 

4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Always one of the classiest contests of the entire week since being renewed in the late 1960’s, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes isn’t a race to look for shocks, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear won at 20/1 in 1999 for David Elsworth and owner Raymond Tooth.

Continuous is likely to go to the front, but it’s far from certain he will make it an end-to-end gallop, as stablemate Los Angeles is at his best when close to the front end himself, and it’s likely Continuous will set easy enough fractions if allowed, with a view to allowing Los Angeles to get to the front early in the straight where he can get his challengers lining up for a fight. He was seen to excellent effect in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, leading two furlongs out and battling back after being headed by Anmaat.

He relishes a head-to-head and Ryan Moore would love a repeat of the tactics which saw him win at the Curragh, with Ascot’s stiff finish suiting the strong-staying Los Angeles down to the ground.
Anmaat won the Champion Stakes over C&D in the autumn and was having his first race since when narrowly denied by Los Angeles at the Curragh, and he could come forward for the run, which gives him claims of turning the tables. He travels strongly for all he can take a bit of time to hit full stride and although he was a 40/1 shot when scoring here in the autumn, there was no hint of fluke about the result, and his Group 1 record now reads two wins and a close second from three runs, having also taken the Prix d’Ispahan in 2023. He is a danger if Jim Crowley can keep Los Angeles and Ryan Moore in his cross-hairs.

Facteur Cheval has been placed in six of his 11 starts at the top level, but his only win in those races came in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last year. He was unplaced in the latest running of that race, and may not be quite the force of old at the age of six, so is passed over. Sea The Fire, on the other hand, looked better than ever when running away with the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York last time, and has been supplemented for this race at some cost. She has place claims, but seven runs at Group 1 level have failed to reap any reward, and that counts against her win claims.

Map of Stars has yet to race on ground quicker than good (according to Timeform) but ran well when second in the Prix Ganay last time and is another with place claims if handling slightly firmer turf. Ombudsman is stepping up in class after losing his unbeaten record in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time and isn’t the easiest to weigh up. He is hard to dismiss given his largely progressive profile, and is worth including in exotics.

Win: Los Angeles
Exotics: Los Angeles & Anmaat (Reverse Exacta)
Los Angeles/Anmaat over Sea The Fire, Map of Stars, Ombudsman (Trifecta Box)

 

5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

Let me start by examining the 15-year trends for the Royal Hunt Cup.

 

Market factors

Four single figure priced winners, eleven double figure priced winners, nine of which were 16/1+ and six were 20/1+.

 

Weight

In terms of weight carried the ideal has been to be at the mid to lower end of the weights. If you work the average weight of the runners each year, horses carrying the average weight or lower have won 11 of the last 15 renewals.

 

Age

4yos have 10 wins from 184 runners (5.4%); 17% placed.

5yos have 3 wins from 105 runners (2.9%); 15% placed.

6yo and older have 2 wins from 140 runners (1.4%); 9% placed.

4yos clearly have the best record.

 

Draw

The draw in big field handicaps at Ascot on the straight track can really play a part, but this is the first big field handicap of the week so at this stage there are no strong clues. Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the ‘rags’. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account,  so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

Stalls PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5 0.44 0.44
6 to 10 0.47 0.53
11 to 15 0.52 0.59
16 to 20 0.59 0.63
21 to 25 0.48 0.53
26 to 30 0.49 0.51

 

It seems that middle draws of 11 to 20 have done best especially those drawn 16 to 20.

 

Run Style

I have taken a similar approach for run style looking at the PRBs for each group. These are:

 

Run Style PRB (All) PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group 0.40 0.44
Prominent 0.42 0.45
Mid Division 0.53 0.57
Held up 0.57 0.60

 

7 of the last 15 races have been won by hold-up horses and they have the best PRB figures too. This is the type of race where a midfield or back of the field sit early is preferable.

 

Recent form trends

11 of the last 15 winners finished in the top four LTO.

Horses that have won at least once in their last five starts have been twice as likely to win compared to those who have failed a register a win in their last five runs.

 

Analysis

I backed Volterra a few weeks back, but he has not been declared. Below are what I feel are the main players.

My Cloud – He has never been out of the first two in his five careers starts and is two from two this year. He is clearly progressing and despite being 15lb higher than the beginning of the year there is probably more to come. The price though is short for such a competitive race with a such a big field. Drawn 32.

Fox Legacy – He was a 12-length winner over 10f last year when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and he has switched to the Andrew Balding yard for this season. He won well on his reappearance over 9f at Newmarket and despite being raised 6lb he may have more to come. Tends to adopt a midfield run style which is a positive.  He has yet to win at a mile but four of the last eight winners of this race also had not won over this trip. Drawn 11 which should be ok.

Greek Order – Back in the UK after an unsuccessful time in the States, Greek Order has strong claims on his best form. His second in the 2023 Cambridgeshire when trained by the Charlton stable highlights his ability and his potential claims here, especially if adopts his normal hold up style. He is now with Michael Bell who is having his best season by far for many years. I noted money at 70s on Betfair in the not-too-distant past but that was immediately snapped up and the price has just continued to drop and drop. Drawn 30. Based on the current price it is not a bet for me anymore, but I expect a decent run.

For those looking for a huge price that may offer each way value there are two that I can see running well.

La Trinidad – La Trinidad tends to ply his trade in handicaps up North. His record on good to firm ground is four wins and three placed from 12 runs and amazingly he is five wins from six in the month of June. He is now an 8yo which is a negative race trend, but he actually seems to be improving. His two runs this year have seen two decent third placed efforts, and last year he won off 92 and 96 – his two highest winning marks. His hold up style is a positive and looks well berthed in 18. With plenty of bookmakers offering extra places, he may sneak into one of those at big odds.

Epictetus -  He was rated as high as 113 in 2023 when trained by the Gosdens and won a Group 3 and was not disgraced in a couple of runs at Group 2 level. 2024 saw him run just twice and both were disappointing. Now with Jamie Osborne he was 5th to My Cloud LTO beaten around 5 lengths on his reappearance in May. He’s down to a mark of 101 so if he comes on for that run then as with La Trinidad, at big odds, he looks to be one for those bookies offering extra places. Drawn in 29 and he is likely to be played late by Saffie.

 

Suggestion

Half stake on

Fox Legacy e/w at 12/1

Split the other half of the stake into two smaller punts on

La Trinidad 40/1 & Epictetus 50/1 both e/w

Most bookies are going 6 places, 7 with Sky Bet/Paddy Power.

 

5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

A new handicap introduced to the meeting for the first time in 2021 for four-year-old and upwards fillies and mares. We have just four years of data and I'm wary of using such a small sample size but if we include the first four home in the four runnings it gives us a bit more information to work with.

Looking at these 16 runners we can see that 4yo's won all 4 renewals and fill 14 of the 16 win and places
All 16 win and places went to horses that had run at least 4 times and all 16 had finished top 8 last time out
All 4 winners and 13 of the 16 win and places had raced in the previous 45 days with just 1 placer from 11 runners who had been rested more than 50 days
All 13 of the runners that last raced on the AW have been beaten (3 placed)
The 3 British trained runners had their last run in a class 3 or 4 race and were stepping up or dropping down in distance (from 7f & 1m2f) while the Irish trained winner last ran in a 7f Listed race
All 37 horses that had their last start over a mile have been beaten although 7 have been placed

Using these trends would lead us to a shortlist of fpur runners including a couple of outsiders who last ran 4th and 5th in a Listed race over 10f at Haydock. Francophone is tried in first time cheekpieces and Charlie Johnston's 4yo filly was an easy winner of a handicap the last time she ran over a mile. She hasn't been getting home over the longer trip in her two starts this year and is an interesting contender back over a mile at around 40/1.

The other runner from that Haydock race, Ambiente Amigo, won a Listed race at Nottingham earlier in the season (well beaten 5th won a handicap next time out) and was 13 lengths adrift of See The Fire in the Group 2 Middleton at York but was within a length and a quarter of the highly rated second (113) and third (107) that day. She had led at the two-furlong pole before she, and the rest of the field, were readily brushed aside by the runaway winner and she could appreciate the drop back to a mile. Her trainer puts up a 7lb claimer who has incredibly won on three of her last four rides (including for this trainer) and she's another who could outrun her odds.

Roger Charlton's Arolla split a couple of 107 and 106 rated fillies in a Listed 7f contest at Musselburgh 11 days ago on her seasonal reappearance; she raced prominently there and kept on well through the final furlong. She'd won her maiden over a mile and was a very easy winner of a novice event on her next start so she's another who should appreciate returning to a mile, although a 4lb rise for that Listed 2nd last time means she races off 100 for this which looks a little high to me for her handicap debut.

The fourth filly on the shortlist is Andrew Balding's Miss Information who was a beaten favourite at the Epsom Derby meeting under a 5lb penalty for winning at Newmarket on her start before. She has raced mainly over 7f and was a well beaten favourite on her only try at a mile to date and, while the ground will be no problem, she has struggled when racing off a rating in the low 90's. Her 3rd in a big field big pot 7f handicap at York last August was very decent form that would give her every chance, but with doubts about her getting the trip and her current rating I'm going to pass.

From the four fillies that made the Trends cut I'm going to take a chance on the James Owen 4yo AMBIENTE AMIGO, under her in-form jockey. This filly will go on the ground and, you could also argue, is quite well treated on some of her form earlier in the season. The drop back from 10f is the big imponderable but she's been bang there at the mile before fading out of the running on her last two starts over further. At odds of around 33/1 I'm willing to take the chance she won't be inconvienced by the trip too much.

SELECTION: AMBIENTE AMIGO 1/2pt EW 33/1 (5 places)

 

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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Victor Value

The Windsor Castle Stakes concludes Wednesday’s card at Royal Ascot, and I was able to find the winner last year so let's hope for a repeat.

Trends to Note

The ten-year stats (based on 239 qualifying runners) reveal a few interesting patterns:

The market holds up well. Big shocks are rare. Horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger are 0/142, with just 6 places.

Draw bias exists — unlike Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes, there’s a clear edge for those drawn in the first or final quarters of the stalls. Runners drawn in the middle two quarters are 1/125, with 11 places.

Only 4 of the last 10 winners had won on their previous start. Interestingly, last-time-out winners have underperformed by 44% compared market expectations.

Another solid angle: since 2015, all winners had started 9/1 or shorter on their most recent run. Those who went off 10/1+ last time out are 0/46, with 5 placing.

Contenders:

Twenty-four runners go to post but, despite the field size, just five caught my eye.

Rogue Legend made it 2 from 3 when making all at Tipperary 22 days ago. He tops the Racing Post Ratings coming into this, and his form would have been good enough to win the last five renewals of this race. This is his first run on ground quicker than good, but if he handles it, he’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.

Old Is Gold built on debut promise (behind Military Code) here by landing the bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley 25 days ago. He travelled well and ran on well and I was taken with his performance. Now running in Wathnan Racing colours and trained by Andrew Balding, who won this race in 2020. Big player.

Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2015 and runs two, Kansas and First Approach. Ryan Moore rides Kansas, which looks the yard’s number one. He’s hit the frame on all three starts without winning, but he’s shown plenty of speed. If Moore can settle him in this big field, he’s in the mix.

First Approach beat Kansas at Naas in May, though had fitness on his side. Well beaten in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time (possibly didn’t stay 6f), and Moore siding with Kansas says plenty for me.

Havana Hurricane looked useful when winning on debut at Goodwood and improved again when runner-up in the Woodcote Stakes (6f) at Epsom. He made a bold move 2f out, but his effort flattened out inside the final furlong. The drop to 5f looks a good move. He may come up a little short class-wise but should run well.

Utmost Respect was a 220,000 gns Craven breeze-up purchase I April, and I was impressed with him physically when I saw him prior to his debut at York’s Dante Meeting. He was a clear eye-catcher that day having repeatedly not got any sort of run between the final two furlongs. Once in the clear he hit the line strongly to finish ½ length second to Ballistic Missile. Open to plenty of improvement, and I am hoping it’s significant that Richard Fahey throws him straight into deep end for his second start.

Windsor Castle Verdict:

Rogue Legend’s form is already good enough to win the race, and he might be capable of an even bigger performance. For me he’s a worthy favourite and if you fancy him, I wouldn’t put you off. Old Is Gold impressed with his attitude when winning at Beverley last time and is a big contender. Despite being a three-race maiden, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Kansas just yet and given his yard’s record in the race, he’s got to be respected. I think Utmost Respect is set for a very big run for a trainer who has won 2-year-old races at Royal Ascot in the past.

Selection: I might have saver on Rogue Legend if he drifts out to 6/1 but for now, I’m with Utmost Respect each way at the 20/1 available with Bet365.

Utmost Respect: 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)

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Royal Ascot 2025: Day One Preview, Tips

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Royal Ascot 2025: Day One Preview, Trends, Tips

And so to the most international race meeting in the British calendar, Royal Ascot. The 2025 edition looks as star-studded as ever and continues to bask in its royal patronage, one of the features of the opening day named in honour of our current reigning monarch.

For the most part there's quantity as well as quality, which doubtless means winner-finding will be tough; but in what follows, I've assembled some of the sharpest quills in the inkpot for, primarily, your entertainment and enlightenment. Naturally, a winner or three will not be unwelcome.

Side note: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Tuesday trends page here, and my Day 1 Tix Picks here.

A quick note that our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race (*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

2.30 THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Dave Renham

I have the honour of kicking off Royal Ascot 2025 for the Geegeez tipping team solet’s see if we can start off on the right foot.

Queen Anne Trends

I'll start by looking at some race trends for the last 15 years of this four-year-old and up mile Group 1 contest:

Age

4yos recorded 11 wins from 81 runners (13.6%); 31% placed.

5yo took 3 wins from 59 runners (5.1%); 24% placed.

6yo and up hadjust 1 win from 37 runners ( 2.7%); 11% placed.

Based on these figures, 4yos have been by far the dominant group from a win perspective and, to a lesser extent, a placed perspective.

Market factors

9 wins for favourites

Horses priced 6/4 or shorter were 8 wins from 10

However, since 2018 there have been three big-priced winners – two at 33/1 and one at 14/1.

Course form

Course winners secured 9 wins from 58 runners (15.5%) with 34.5% placed.

Those without a course win had 6 wins from 119 runners (5%) with 19% placed.

A win at the course has definitely been a positive over the past 15 years.

Position LTO

9 winner also won LTO from 48 runners (18.8%).

Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO were 6 from 129 (4.7%).

LTO winners performed well from a smallish sample.

Course LTO

9 winners ran LTO at Newbury from  67 runners (13.4%) with almost all of them (65) having raced in the Lockinge. Hence, the Lockinge has been by far the best trial for this contest in recent years.

Race Class LTO

13 of the 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race LTO. LTO Group 1 runners have provided 55% of the total runners in the race and just under 87% of the winners.

Career win percentage

Horses with a career win percentage of 60% or more provided 8 winners from just 21 runners (38.1%) for a BSP profit of £34.62 (ROI +164.9%).

Queen Anne Preview

The first four home in the Lockinge - Lead Artist (1st), Dancing Gemini (2nd), Rosallion (3rd) and Notable Speech (4th) - reoppose here. In that race the first two home had the benefit of a previous run, while the third and fourth were making their seasonal debut.

Logic dictates that both Rosallion and Notable Speech will come on for that run and the trainers of both have made comments in the press to that effect. Also, I felt that Lead Artist and Dancing Gemini had the run of that race, always being up with the pace.

There are potentially two ways to approach the Queen Anne – one is playing the win market, the other looking for an each way runner at a price. In terms of the win strategy, the first one I’m drawn to consider is ROSALLION. He heads the market and looks a worthy favourite to me. Two from two at Ascot, including a win last year at the Royal meeting in the St James’s Palace, he is also the only one of four horses mentioned so far to have a career win record of over 60%. He ticks most of the trends except for winning LTO, and is also the joint highest rated in the race on official ratings.

Notable Speech is the other joint top rated in terms of ORs and he is a bigger price than Rosallion. Third in the Breeder’s Cup Mile suggests he has the class to go close, but the issue for me is his Ascot run last year in the St James’s Palace where he was a well beaten 7th. As illustrated earlier, course winners tend to out-perform non-course winners.

I am expecting Dancing Gemini to reverse form with Lead Artist and if this was being run anywhere else, I would be very interested in his chance. However, in two runs at Ascot Roger Teal's four-year-old has been some way beliw his best, albeit one of those runs was only his second career start. He does seem to have improved his form this season, but that Ascot runs are a concern.

Sardinian Warrior is 4 from 6 in his career so that is positive on the trends. He won here earlier this year in the Listed Queen Anne trial (Paradise Stakes) and followed that up with a decent second in France in soft ground over 9f. Back to a mile here, he has sound claims.

For each way players it is possible to make a case for Lake Forest, and to a lesser extent Carl Spackler and Diego Velazquez.

However,  Docklands, who I believe is best on fast ground, has some appeal based on his price. On official ratings he has a bit to find, but he was the lowest rated runner in this race last year when finishing second of 13. His record at Ascot is excellent with two firsts, three seconds and one third from six starts, and his PRB at the course stands at 0.94. I think he is a 6 to 8lb better horse here at Ascot. He was second to Sardinian Warrior in that trial here in April, beaten half a length, and is around 25/1 compared with Sardinian Warrior at around 7/1. At the time of writing, he is 25/1 with a few firms who are offering 4 places, which looks real value to me. Crack Australian jockey Mark Zahra gets the ride: he's inexperienced at the track but a top rider in his country with two of the three Melbourne Cups since 2022 to his name.

This is a cracking race to start the meeting off with very few runners that could comfortably be written off.

Suggestion:

1pt win  Rosallion at 11/4

0.25pts each way Docklands 25/1, 4 places

 

3.05 THE COVENTRY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Victor Value

It's great to be back on the team again and, just like 12 months ago, I'll be covering four of the juvenile races at Royal Ascot.

I know it’s heresy for jumps fans, but Royal Ascot beats Cheltenham for me: it’s more competitive, it’s global, and it doesn’t need “Festival” added on — it’s the original.

The Group 2 Coventry Stakes is one of Royal Ascot’s most prestigious juvenile races and often a launchpad to Group 1 glory. First run in 1890, it’s been a nursery for top-level sprinters and milers.

Recent winners include:

Bradsell (2022) – Went on to win the King’s Stand/Charles III (2023) and Nunthorpe Stakes (2024)

Caravaggio (2016) – Won the Commonwealth Cup the following year

Dawn Approach (2012) – Unbeaten as a juvenile and won the 2,000 Guineas in 2013.

Henrythenavigator (2007) – Won the following year’s 2,000 Guineas, St. James's Palace Stakes and Sussex Stakes.

Coventry Stakes Trends

While field size and inexperience make it look wide open, punters have generally had the edge in the race. That has changed a bit with the 150/1 shock of Nando Parrado in 2020 and Rashabar’s 80/1 win last year. But before that, in the 12 renewals from 2008 to 2019, horses sent off at 12/1 or bigger were acombined 1 winner from 155, 7 places.

15 of the last 17 winners won on their previous start. The two exceptions? Nando Parrado and Rashabar.

Another good angle: winners since 2008 were all 9/1 or shorter on their most recent start. Those returned 10/1+ were 0 from 50, with just 1 place.

Is there a draw bias? Not really. Winners have come from across the track. Stall 1 is 0 from 10, 3 places over the past 10 years, but stalls 2 and 3 have both produced winners so that's nothing to be concerned about. More generally over six furlongs on quick ground/big fields, there's a pretty even distribution of winners and placed horses.

Coventry Stakes Contenders

Here's a summary of the Coventry Stakes key contenders.

Postmodern – Overcame greenness to make a winning debut at Yarmouth last month. Visually impressive and a comfortable winner. He looks a good juvenile prospect and is effective on quick ground.

Military Code – The unbeaten son of Wootton Bassett made it 2-2 over 5f when winning a novice here 38 days ago. The step up to 6f should unlock further improvement.

No Albert Einstein, the early hot ante post favourite, means Aidan O’Brien relies on Gstaad and Warsaw. Gstaad came home well when making a winning debut at Navan (6f) last time. He beat a better fancied stablemate that day and is open to further improvement with racing. Warsaw has just had the one run, which was a winning one, also at Navan (5f), 10 days ago. Like Warsaw, he’s sure to improve but Ryan Moore has opted for Gstaad. Has Ryan chosen the right one? He usually does in this race but I wouldn’t be so sure; regardless, I am not convinced either will be in the winner’s enclosure.

Power Blue – Was only beaten ¾ of a length by Albert Einstein in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time. Given the latter was 6/4 for the Coventry when he became a non-runner, and the form looks strong, the 16/1 available at the time of writing makes him look overpriced.

American Gulf – A Class 4 novice winner at Windsor on debut and could hardly have been more impressive, a performance backed up by the clock. Oisin Murphy, who won on him at Windsor, stays in the saddle. There should be plenty more to come from him with racing. Trainer and owner had the third in 2022, and have had seven of 18 finish top five in Royal Ascot juvenile races since they scored in the 2013 Chesham with Berkshire.

Underwriter – Won well on debut on quick ground at Ayr. Retained jockey James Doyle rides favourite Postmodern, but Colin Keane is an excellent deputy. Archie Watson knows how to prepare one for the race having trained Bradsell (2022 winner) and lost out by a nose with Electrolyte 12 months ago. That was agony for me as I had tipped him here. Underwriter is open to as much improvement as any in the line-up and I’m expecting a big run from the colt.

Kolkata Knight – Looked professional and was backed when winning on debut at Hamilton. Open to further improvement and could outrun big odds for a trainer - Tom Dascombe - who has enjoyed previous Royal Ascot success, including a juvenile winner in the Queen Mary Stakes.

Coventry Stakes Verdict

Postmodern was an impressive debut winner and is firmly in the 'could be anything' category. That sentiment applies to Underwriter, in the same ownership, and he looks the better value of the pair given his trainer’s fine record in the race.

Neither of the Aidan O’Brien pair of Gstaad and Warsaw have got my pulse racing, but the trainer has won ten Coventry Stakes so we still need to respect his runners.

Military Code is unbeaten and improving and can get into the money, but I fancy there are better prospects in the line-up. Power Blue’s form with Albert Einstein stacks up well and he looks overpriced on that run. The market has seemingly ignored his form and he’s a tempting pick.

American Gulf impressed me when winning on debut and he’s another where we're guessing at how much more is under the bonnet. I like the fact that Osin Murphy stays in the saddle and he’s a playable price at 12/1.

Coventry Stakes Selection

American Gulf: 1pt win – 10/1

Underwriter: 1pt win – 12/1

3.40 THE KING CHARLES III STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

With a big field declared for the King Charles III (formerly the King’s Stand), pace and draw are likely to be a decisive factor in the way the race develops. Traditionally that means that the higher numbers (stands side) are favoured, but the best of the pace appears to be in the middle, suggesting that the high-draw bias could be diluted to some extent. That said, I’d still rather be very high than very low.

Believing ran a stormer last year from stall 1, so while that is arguably the worst of the draw, she has proven she can overcome that obstacle to be competitive, and she looked at least as good as ever when winning the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan last time by ½ length from Win Carnelian and Regional. She was a little frustrating last season but seemed to get some bad luck with draws and is sure to be competitive for her new connections.

Asfoora is the defending champion, and the seven-year-old mare won at Morphettville in April before finishing seventh over 6f there last time. She showed last year that 5f on an English track suits her better than 6f in Australia, so merits respect in her bid to win this again for the Aussies. Her age would normally be a concern as few top-class mares retain their ability for as long as she has, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration. She got her eye in last year with a spin in the Temple Stakes before coming here, but she’s been in action recently enough to think that fitness won’t be a concern and she’s drawn between the more obvious pace angles in the race.

REGIONAL comes here after an excellent third, beaten little more than half a length in the Al Quoz Sprint won by Believing, and he has fared better with the draw than her this time. Berthed in 17 and with pace on his inside, he’s in a similar position to last year when he was beaten a length by Asfoora - the Australian mare exited 17 that day and Regional was close by in stall 15. Looking at the shape of the contest, I would argue that his draw is almost perfect, both in terms of historical perspective and where the pace is likely to be concentrated here: it looks to be immediately to the left, with Frost At Dawn in 15 as likely a leader as any, and those drawn 9 through 12 all having shown a tendency to push the pace.

He will hopefully have enough cover without having to fight for room, and he is ideally suited by 5f on quick ground as he showed when second last year. His form figures at this trip on good or faster turf are 21152 and the only unplaced effort came when beaten 2½ lengths in the 2023 Nunthorpe, his first run at Group 1 level.

The other one worthy of a mention is Night Raider, who blazed away in the Duke Of York last time but couldn’t last out the 6f trip there. He’s likely to be at his best on turf at this trip given a sound surface, and he’s the pick of those who will go forward from a single-figure draw. Stall 7 looks far from insurmountable and he can lead his group for some way, although he may just find a couple too strong at the finish.

Recommended: Back Regional e/w at 7/1

Exotics: Include Regional/Asfoora/Believing/Night Raider in exacta/trifecta permutations.

 

4.20 THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

A small but well formed septet head to post for the one mile St James's Palace Stakes, typically a clash of the 2000 Guineas winners from across Europe. And so it is that we welcome said Classic scorers from the English, Irish and French versions, including a grudge rematch (of sorts) from Newmarket. Let's put some names to faces.

Cast your mind back - not far - to the opening Saturday of May and the 2000 Guineas. On that day, Field Of Gold was only 15/8 to fill one of the remaining empty spaces on the senior member of Team Gosden's lustrous palmarès. Godolphin's Ruling Court got first run and scampered clear under Buick; Field Of Gold, and Kieran Shoemark, were blindsided, flatfooted and, arguably - at least according to the trainer - outwitted.

The runner-up rattled home late, but too late, and was beaten a half length at the line. Too bad, said Johnny G, and it was the end for Shoemark. Harsh it might have been but in stepped Colin Keane, subsequently announced as first choice rider for Juddmonte, Field Of Gold's ownership entity, for the Curragh gig in the Irish 2000. Keane made no mistake - and nor should he in what was a slightly thinner looking affair, albeit that some of those inflated juvenile ratings were still suggesting otherwise.

This, then, can be seen as a decider, Ruling Court having snubbed his Derby invite at the eleventh hour as conditions went against him (and, perhaps, as connections realised that they were needlessly blotting a top Darley stallion prospect's copybook in a race that annually crowns Coolmore National Hunt daddy's). If Ruling Court had run at Epsom, there would surely not have been time to prepare him for this job a mere 11 days later. The Downs' loss is the Heath's gain.

As mentioned, this is no two horse race. There are 28 equine legs entered, and at least twelve of them are strong contenders; let's address the mystery four, which belong to Poules d'Essai des Poulains (or French 2000 Guineas, if you prefer) winner, Henri Matisse. To Juddmonte and Godolphin we add Coolmore's lads. Henri was a very good juvenile, running second in the G1 National Stakes before winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; and he's trained on well, collecting a trial at Leopardstown en route to Paris and the Poulains.

A feature of this fella's performances is his ability to quicken. He was more than six lengths back at Del Mar before rattling home; and he ran two sub-11 second furlongs in the last three-eighths of the French Guineas.

The other four in the field should be discussed for all that my feeling is that a seven-runner race where they bet 25/1 bar three offers little of note outside win only wagering.

Rashabar showed a liking for this track when winning last year's Coventry. He proved that was no fluke by finishing very close seconds in two Group 1's later that season, and has again run well - although less eye-catchingly - in a brace of defeats this term. The latter, when five lengths behind Field Of Gold at the Curragh, gives him plenty to find; but this turning track might help him narrow the gap: he's looked like a doubtful stayer at a mile to my eye.

Officer's form heretofore is a stone below the top ones but the case for him is that he is less exposed and was certainly unlucky to some degree in the Irish 2000. Sent off only a 9/2 shot there, more was expected; but Moore has deserted and this looks a tough ask for the Ballydoyle second string. Their third dart is the maiden winner - at the fifth time of asking if you don't mind - First Wave. My assumption is that his is a pacemaking role.

That leaves a second Juddmonte runner, Windlord, beaten eight lengths in that Curragh Classic and surely also setting things up tempo-wise for his teammate.

Cast assembled, how does this act play out? It seems, on paper at least, to be run at a reasonable clip, with both Windlord and First Wave presumed hares. As always in such scenarios, though, there is the danger that the main trio mark each other and ignore the front end sizzle. That could lead to potential traffic problems, even in a small field (nothing more annoying as a punter!), and a dash for the line.

My suspicion is that the one most compromised in that situation would be odds-on jolly Field Of Gold, who has seemed to need a moment to get rolling, and he's opposable on that basis. If there is a genuine even tempo and he gets clear passage, he'll probably win; but I don't want to wager that where I'm getting less back in premium than I've shelled out in policy.

I've got a bit of a problem with Ruling Court as well. His mile form is top notch, as you'd expect for a Newmarket Guineas winner. But he was being trained to run a mile and a half at Epsom; that's a different regime, emphasising relaxing and stretching out over the greater speed requirements of top division miling. As with the favourite, I don't feel that's fully factored into his early quotes south of 3/1 for all that he's about as far from a shock winner as you'll get.

Which brings me to HENRI MATISSE. I'm not sure he's the best horse in the race - indeed, I think he's likely not (at this stage anyway) - but I do feel he's the most adaptable, and likely to handle the setup however it plays. And he has Ryan Moore steering. Nearly 5/1 looked very fair and 4/1 is still playable.

The rest don't really count but, for prayer mat punters, I could see Rashabar being closest to the front end nutjobs and making a bold dash for glory. It's far from 25/1 that he's on the lead at some point in the final quarter, before probably getting mown down by one or more of the trio atop the markets. Perhaps it's not Rash to include him 'underneath' in exactas and/or trifectas.

Suggestion: Try Henri Matisse at around 4/1 win only.

 

5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

Ascot Stakes Trends

All of the last 18 winners had raced at least 11 times in their career (NH & Flat)
All of the last 17 winners carried 8-13 or more(before jockey claims)
All of the last 18 winners had raced 3 or fewer times that turf flat Season
All of the last 13 winners were rated 88-100
13 of the last 14 winners had run in the last 60 days (NH & Flat) – exception 2020 (covid)
13 of the last 15 renewals have been won by NH/Dual Trainers
17 of the last 18 winners had been rested at least 16 days (NH & Flat)
17 of the last 18 winners had their last run in a class 2-4 race (NH & Flat)
13 of the last 18 winners finished top 4 on their last run (NH & Flat)
11 of the last 15 winners were aged 5-7yo (exceptions 1x4yo, 2x8yo & 9yo)
Last 4yo winner before 2024 was in 2009
All 14 horses to have run on the All Weather last time were beaten. 2 placed.

Ascot Stakes Preview

A 0-100 handicap, a maximum field of 20 runners, and two and a half miles of stamina-sapping Berkshire turf that brings the National Hunt boys out to play at the Royal meeting. In fact 13 of the last 15 winners were trained by NH or dual purpose trainers. The flat boys and girls have had the odd winner here and there over the century, and have struck back recently having won two of the last three renewals, but on the whole it usually pays to stick with those trainers holding a jumps licence.

Despite the dominance of the NH horses it is interesting that only 8 of the last 28 winners had their last run over jumps with the other 20 having had their prep on the flat (what is more important to note is that all 25 runners since 1998 to have had their last run on the all-weather have been beaten). All 31 runners that last ran in a class 5 or 6 race and all 28 runners that last raced over 3 miles or further have been beaten also but age seems to be irrelevant with all age groups winning this century from 4-9yo (last year's 4yo winner was the first of that age group since 2009 but 7 of the 9 winners from 1998-2006 were 4yo).

The Irish challenge is strong this year with most of the top stables represented by at least one runner and, looking through the field, the eye is immediately drawn to the Willie Mullins-trained Triumph Hurdle winner PONIROS (East India Dock third) who sits right at the bottom of the weights and has William Buick on board (jockey has won 2 of the last 4 renewals). I sense this has been the plan with him ever since he rounded off his short jumps campaign with a second in the 4yo hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, and the master trainer has kept his horse fresh and penalty-free by not taking in the Chester Cup.

Mullins himself has won this race four times since 2012 and had three runners-up since 2019. He's particularly adept with horses in the bottom half of the handicap with a recent record of those carrying 9-06 or less at 10/1 or under of 2710314222. Poniros showed himself a top class juvenile hurdler but he also had some pretty decent flat handicap form last season including running second to Queens Gambit in the London Gold Cup at Newbury last May and being sent off favourite for the Cambridgeshire late in the season after finishing third in a big handicap at Ascot. He was a no show in the Cambridgeshire, looking like a horse needing a longer trip, and subsequently left Ralph Beckett to join Mullins.

I'm really confident of a big effort from this 4yo with the only caveat being that he probably won't want the ground too firm. I'm just hoping the Ascot watering policy will ensure they have taken the sting out of the turf and that enables him to run to his best.

As the ground could majorly affect the chances of my main bet I'm also going to have a small each way bet on the Harry Eustace 7yo DIVINE COMEDY who was runner up in this race last year under a 5lb claimer from just a 2lb lower mark. He began this season with a short head second to Al Qareem in a Listed race at Nottingham and the winner did that form no harm when running second to Illinois in the Ormonde Stakes and then winning a York Listed race from Absurde under a 5lb penalty. Divine Comedy followed up that run with a close third in the Sagaro Stakes before running down the field in the Chester Cup. Dropped 2lb since then he looks a massive price for a horse who has already shown he handles conditions and has begun this season in great form in a better class of race. His trainer has two winners, two seconds and a third from just eight Royal Ascot runners to date.

Ascot Stakes Selection

Try PONIROS at 11/2 and/or DIVINE COMEDY e/w at 25/1 or bigger

P.S. One final thing. Win, lose or draw it's always worth noting that if any of the runners from this race turn up again later in the week for the Queen Alexandra Stakes (final race on Saturday) then they deserve the utmost respect. In truth, not many try it these days but, since 1998, of the 17 to have attempted the double four have won, including two of the three Ascot Stakes winners that turned out quickly, and another four made the frame (at odds of up to 20/1). That's a place percentage of 47% and backing them all showed a Level Stakes Win Profit of +13.25pts thanks to winners at 11/4, 11/2, 6/1 and 12/1.

 

 

5.35 THE WOLFERTON STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Formerly a handicap the Wolferton became a conditions race in 2018, although that has done little to improve its scrutability with three of the last four winners returning 14/1 or bigger. Roger Varian has two wins since 2020 and John (now with son Thady) Gosden has enjoyed five wins and five places from 20 entries. Both are represented this year.

Let's first look at the race setup. There is a draw bias in big fields on fast ground on the turning ten-furlong course. In the chart below, focused on PRB3, a smoothed metric showing the percentage of horses beaten by a stall and its immediate neighbours, we can see that the dark blue line - representing the race conditions (field size, going, all races) - is above the 50% lighter blue line up to around stall eight. In a field of 16, the implication is that it's harder to run well from wide.

 

Wolferton Stakes 2025: Draw and Run Style Bias

Wolferton Stakes 2025: Draw and Run Style Bias

 

The lower half of that image is a heat map overlaying run style onto draw thirds. It tells us that early speed is often cheap speed, and that the optimal position is low to middle with a midfield sit in the early part of the race. Einstein is not required for us to also figure out that luck will also be needed by those adopting such a passage. Perhaps we're starting to see why big-priced winners are a feature of the Wolferton...

On Official Ratings just 4lb separates all bar one of the 16 runners, further attesting to the trickiness of the race. Still, with older horses and a big field, we can probably put a few profile elements into play. Below are the geegeez.co.uk Instant Expert grids for, first, placed performance, and then win only. There's a sea of green on the place, implying lots of these are well enough suited by conditions.

 

 

The grid is ordered by current odds at time of writing; and the well touted Sons And Lovers is one I'm personally fielding against. The form of his run behind Los Angeles has been trumpeted but it's worth noting he only had two behind him there - and one of those was a 100/1 shot. He's failed to make the frame in six races at the trip and in eight races in Pattern company so, while he might perform better from stall 1 and with Grandmaster Moore in the driver's seat, he just doesn't look particularly solid.

Enfjaar heads the betting parade. He has an ostensibly good draw in 2, is trained by that man Varian and this is his trip. Highly progressive in handicaps last term, including in the hurly burly of big fields, he's sure to step forward a bundle from his prep in the Brigadier Gerard. A player, no doubt, but skinny enough in the book.

Haatem has a tidy line of green on the place, and plenty of green and amber on the win view (see below). He has a blank for the trip because he's stepping up from mile races; his pedigree (Phoenix Of Spain out of a Cape Cross mare) offers hope that he'll stay without being conclusive. He was classy enough to run second to Rosallion in the Irish 2000 Guineas last season before taking the 7f Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting, and is another that can be expected to bound forward from his seasonal bow. Still, Jersey Stakes hardly screams a horse wanting a mile and a quarter.

 

 

Richard Fahey sends Ecureuil Secret and bids to become the fourth Yorkshire-based trainer to win the Wolferton after Kevin Ryan, Tim Easterby and Mark Johnston. A four-year-old son of Wootton Bassett, he's been hyper consistent on both sides of the English Channel, and won an Epsom handicap by fully four lengths last time. He's a handy racer, making all that last day, and might just be a sitting duck in this deeper and classier contest.

Godolphin's Military Order looks better on the all-weather, or at least softer turf, and he's readily (and perhaps recklessly) overlooked; while the likes of King's Gambit and Liberty Lane both have it all to do from their wide posts. Each has form claims but getting a run might not be easy.

Let's revisit the heat map, this time with the runners, and their draws and recent run style preferences, overlaid. I've used some very high tech (!) coloured squares to highlight various things. First, those high numbers might have it to do. Second, low to middle looks good - but probably only if not too close to the pace (even allowing for the fact the race doesn't look swamped with early speed).

The Fahey horse will probably go on, and I'd imagine that Haatem - with his unproven stamina - might be ridden more patiently. Doha and Galen are others expected to be to the fore.

 

 

James Owen is winning everywhere just now but it will be a rabbit from a hat job if he can get the stayer Ambiente Friendly to win at this range. He could potentially also go forward in a bid to make it a truer test of stamina: if it's tactical he's surely got little chance.

Wathnan are an emerging force in ownership and they've targeted this meeting the past couple of seasons. Four horses carry their silks in this, including the aforementioned Haatem - the mount of retained rider James Doyle - and the wide-drawn King's Gambit. Their other pair are perhaps the more interesting ones. Haunted Dream is a big price and has done most of his recent racing in the Emirates, his last run there being a fourth of ten in the uber-valuable Neom Cup (£960,000 to the winner) in Saudi Arabia. Mikael Barzalona will probably ride him cold at the back of the field and have licence to thrill (or frustrate) with the route he plots, and he's kind of interesting from a throwaway dart perspective.

More obvious is Torito, representing that five-time winning and five-time placing axis of the Clarehaven Gosdens. He gets a plum draw, has an optimal running style and was third in the race last year when perhaps given too much to do. Colin Keane takes the reins so, while fitness must be taken on trust on this first start since last year's race, the fact he's here and is the sole Gosden entry in a race they've farmed offers plenty of hope.

It's a fascinating race but not an easy one to unravel - and I'm not inclined to play at short as a consequence. Enfjaar has an obvious chance but is commensurately well found in the markets; Haatem has stamina to prove and is too short in that context (though a steadily run race might aid his chance); and I have reservations about the next four in the market. Those reservations extend to Torito and to Haunted Dream, but a combination of the available odds and the perceived run of the race mean I'll split my stakes between them, and between the win and place pools.

Suggestion: Back either Torito e/w at 11/1 and/or Haunted Dream e/w at 14/1 or bigger.

*

6.10 THE COPPER HORSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by David Massey

Last year - 16 runners, first four drawn 14-16-12-13

2023 - 16 runners first four 7-10-3-13 (Vauban, would have won from Car Park 6, frankly)

2022 - 16 runners, first four 7-9-14-5

2021 - 15 runners, first four 9-4-3-1

French Master is the correct favourite for this. He looked in need of the run first time up (and still showed signs of greenness) at Newmarket and was still only beaten by El Cordobes (who was the paddock pick) and then last time out, despite constantly coming on and off the bridle and racing less than economically, was a neck too good for Story Horse. He's up 4lb for that but frankly was value for an awful lot more, and he looks a class stayer in the making. He’s still learning his trade and that, to a certain extent is the concern here - that he finds the occasion a bit too much at present - but I’ve little doubt he’ll be a lot higher than a 100-rated horse by the end of the season. On go the blinkers, which is hardly a surprise after Goodwood, either. 

Caballo De Mar has been a favourite of mine for some time, a Trackside success story as he was flagged up early last year as one that would keep improving as he went up in trip. All he’s done is progress, and I loved the way he fought them off at Haydock last time, going to the front a full three furlongs out and just galloping his rivals into submission. He’s up another 4lb for that (which he needed in order to get a run here) but this extreme stamina test will suit him well and he might not have finished improving yet. He's a horse that simply tries hard and knows how to win, which is half the battle with stayers. Drawn in the middle in stall 9, which has thrown the winner up recently (and a place), he’ll do nicely for me here. 

My Mate Mozzie was third in the race last year and is following a similar pattern en route as then: last season it was Cheltenham, this time around Aintree, as a prep, and on neither occasion did he cover himself in glory, so I’d not be worrying about that too much. Gavin Cromwell has enlisted the services of the excellent Warren Fentiman to take 5lb off his back and there are pros and cons regarding that (last five runnings have all been won by professional jockeys). He’s one to consider as an each-way poke with extra places, for all that he doesn’t actually get his head in front that often - just one win from eleven flat starts, but six places as well. He's certainly one to include in exactas and trifectas, as he’s more likely to be there at the business end of proceedings than a few of his opponents. 

Willie Mullins has won this for the last two years and he runs Charlus, who is impossible to weigh up (for me, anyway). Three times a winner for Jean-Claude Rouget at trips up to 10f, he won a maiden hurdle for Mullins on his first start at Naas back in January before, perhaps unsurprisingly, finding the Triumph Hurdle a step too far on his only other hurdles start. His breeding sends out some mixed messages as to whether he’ll stay or not, although the dam being a half-sister to the very useful Drill Sergeant, who many will remember as a tough, staying sort for Mark Jonhston back in the day, gives plenty of hope; and the booking of Ryan Moore is obviously a huge plus. But look, those bookmaker chaps are already reaching for the tin hats, putting Charlus towards the head of the market, so it’s not as if he’s sneaking one in under the radar here. It may also be that stall 1 is not the best of draws for him either.

Suggestion: Back Caballo De Mar e/w at 6/1 with all the extra places

Royal Ascot 2024: Day 4 (Friday) Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

And so to the fourth and final quarter of the geegeez.co.uk daily race previews, Friday, Day 4. Two Group 1's, led out by the relatively new Commonwealth Cup and followed up with a cracking Coronation Stakes, are the features but there's plenty to go at from start to end, beginning with the...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

It's hard to believe we've already reached the fourth day of Royal Ascot — time certainly flies when you're having fun. This is my final day of previewing a daily race for Geegeez, and I've genuinely enjoyed it. I hope you've found my musings on the various contests both insightful and enjoyable.

On Wednesday, I tipped a 20/1 winner for Victor Value subscribers. Interestingly, if I hadn’t been previewing the juvenile races for this site, I probably wouldn’t have even looked at that race. So I owe a big thanks to Matt Bisogno for pushing me in the two-year-old direction. [You're welcome, John - just wish I'd given you the Windsor Castle for Wednesday! - Ed.]

Today, let's talk about the Albany Stakes, a prestigious Group 3. Here are some key details about the race: Run over six furlongs the Albany Stakes was inaugurated in 2002, making it one of the newer races at the Royal Ascot meeting. Initially classified at Listed level, it was promoted to Group 3 status in 2005, reflecting its growing importance and quality of participants.

Over the years, several winners of the Albany Stakes have gone on to achieve greater success in their racing careers, enhancing the race's reputation as a launchpad for future champions. For instance, the last two winners, Porta Fortuna (2023) and Meditate (2022), both went on to achieve Group 1 success. Winning or performing well in the Albany Stakes can significantly enhance the reputation and value of a filly, both in terms of racing and breeding potential.

The Albany Stakes continues to maintain its status as a key early-season race for two-year-old fillies.

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Last Time Out Track: Naas – 2 winners from 5 runners +40, 3 places

Last Time Out Placing: 1st - 5 winners from 86 runners, 15 places (non-winners last time are 0 from 33 runners, 4 places)

Key Contenders:

Fairy Godmother

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Fairy Godmother built on her debut promise by defeating five rivals in the Group 3 Fillies' Sprint Stakes at Naas last time. The daughter of Night Of Thunder is bred to be speedy and sets a high standard.

Heavens Gate

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Heavens Gate won a Curragh maiden over the distance 26 days ago. Like Fairy Godmother, she is open to further improvement. She has the rail draw in stall 17.

Mountain Breeze

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Mountain Breeze looked impressive when winning at Newmarket last month. The daughter of Lope De Vega is now two from two and is poised for a big run, posing the main threat to the favourite in my view.

California Dreamer

Trainer: Adrian Murray. California Dreamer finished a length third to Fairy Godmother at Naas. This was a significant improvement from her Dundalk debut, indicating she has more to offer, although beating Fairy Godmother will be tough.

Twafeeg

Trainer: Archie Watson. Twafeeg showcased her speed by winning on debut at Doncaster 20 days ago. There is more to come from her, and an Archie Watson juvenile should never be underestimated at Royal Ascot.

Simmering

Trainer: Ollie Sangster. Simmering showed plenty of promise on her debut at York, finishing third behind Arabie, who has since won a Group 3 at Chantilly. Sent off the 3/1 favourite at York she must have been showing plenty at home. While beating top contenders like Fairy Godmother and Mountain Breeze will be tough, Simmering has room for plenty of improvement. With Jamie Spencer on board, she could get into the places.

Albany Stakes Verdict:

Fairy Godmother sets a high bar and will be tough to beat, but Mountain Breeze is also a strong contender and should provide a stern challenge. Twafeeg, coming off a recent win at Doncaster, has solid each-way claims. The most intriguing runner in the line-up is Simmering, who arguably has the most potential for improvement among the 17 fillies.

Betting Advice:

My idea of the winner is Fairy Godmother and 13/8 looks a fair price about her chance but if you’re looking for an each-way play at big odds I would consider Simmering if you can get 25/1 and four places.

Simmering: £2 each way – 25/1 @ bet365 (paying four places)

 

3.05 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

Introduced in 2015, this six furlong Group 1 for three-year-olds only is a terrific addition to the Royal Ascot menu. It's been a slot where failed Classic aspirants have rediscovered their top class mojo over a more suitable trip; and where genuinely fast horses can show their (go faster) stripes. In its nine years to date, no trainer has taken the prize more than once, and no horse has returned greater than 12/1 in spite of big fields being commonplace.

Sheikh Obaid has a strong hand with, at time of writing, the first two in the betting. Inisherin was supplemented at some expense, even by a Sheikh's standard, after an easy score in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. He'd previously led the 2000 Guineas field to the quarter pole before the lactic acid kicked in and he checked out. Remarkably, and atypically, he'd never run shorter than a mile prior to the Haydock race. That's a bit of a question mark given it was soft ground there, and so more of an emphasis on stamina, whereas it will be fast turf here. Moreover, leading against milers who are saving something for the final two furlongs is different from trying to best the fastest and classiest speedsters of his generation. He has an obvious chance to win but looks opposable at the prices.

Arrow number two in Sheikh Obaid's quiver is Elite Status, who lived up to his name when hacking up in a Listed race over this trip at Newbury last time. Trained by Karl Burke, who has trained a Commonwealth Cup winner, he's had plenty of experience, with four wins from seven starts thus far. They include a second Listed score as well as a Group 3 but he was thumped in both the Prix Morny and Middle Park (both G1) at the end of last season. You could argue that he was over the top for them, but it is also not unreasonable to take a less charitable view of those no shows. Perhaps he's not quite at this level.

Jasour was beaten in that same brace of top level two-year-old sprints, and also bookended those heavy defeats with Pattern class wins: in his case he preceded them with a G2 victory and debuted this campaign with a G3, over course and distance in the trial race to boot. That was a notable career best and it's perfectly plausible that he's improved plenty from two to three. This, of course, will be the acid test. His trainer, Clive Cox, has, like Burke, won this race before so knows the formula.

Third to Big Evs and Valiant Force, both 2023 Royal Ascot winners, in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Starlust showed there that he could handle very fast ground. He was staying on over that turning five furlongs but has beaten plenty of times (eight, to be exact, from a dozen starts). Moreover, his best form is mostly at the minimum and he looks exposed in comparison with some of his rivals. That said, he does bring the highest official rating into the race, his 114 being earned with a nine pounds hike for an easy handicap verdict last time.

Givemethebeatboys was due to run in that Breeders' Cup race but was scratched by the Santa Anita vets the day before the race, a deeply frustrating experience for all involved, no doubt. Before then, he'd run creditably in the Phoenix and Middle Park Stakes, and holds Elite Status and Jasour on literal analyses of that form. He began 2024 with a Listed win at Navan before just failing to pass the intended but now absent Bucanero Fuerte in a Naas Group 3 last time. This stiff six looks ideal though he'll need to improve a good bit.

Archie Watson has an excellent record at Royal Ascot - three wins last year, just failed in the Coventry over course and distance on Tuesday - and saddles Evade, winner of the 7f Surrey Stakes last time. Trained prior to that Epsom race by Andre Fabre, he'd finished 2023 with a distant view of Rosallion's rump in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. But it was a big step forward on Oaks day, where he was tardy from the gate but showed plenty of speed to move to the front of the field; he then battled gamely while seeming unbalanced on the camber and can arguably be marked up a touch.

Classic Flower runs for Patrice Cottier, who saddled Horizon Dore to run third in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes on Wednesday. In the same ownership, this daughter of Calyx has been second on all three starts in '24, all on very wet turf. Her trainer must fancy her to show more on terra firmer, and she did win a Group 2 on good to soft last October. Her form is hard to peg - likely a beat below the pick of her rivals - but she is consistent, could conceivably step forward for fast turf, and her trainer is respected.

The rest of them probably have too much to find but I want to mention two highly progressive runners who wouldn't be total shock winners. Firstly, Stuart Williams trains Pandora's Gift, a filly that has raced exclusively on all-weather surfaces heretofore. Second on her debut as a 20/1 shot, she's won her other four starts, most recently when waltzing away with a Listed prize at Chelmsford. Prior to that she won in a manner rarely seen in a valuable all-weather handicap. She went up 12lb for that win and another 11lb for her Listed victory. If she can translate that level to turf, a further similar bound forward would put her bang there. If.

The twice-raced Kind Of Blue is the other worth noting. James Fanshawe has had some very good sprinters - remember The Tin Man? - and while it's very early to include this colt's name in the same sentence, he looked very good in the second of two novice stakes wins last time. That was good to firm ground on Doncaster's straight track, so no conditions fears, but this is a chasmic class rise. One to keep on side going forwards and it will be interesting, though not wager worthy, to see how he goes in this G1.

This is quite difficult. I want to be against Inisherin, whose ability to lead may be compromised against genuine top class sprinters. Obviously, I expect him to win now. Elite Status made a big jump on figures on his sole three-year-old start and may have matured into a far better model, with similar comments applying to the slightly more lightly-raced Jasour; the latter is a bigger price and appeals as a bit of value at around 6/1. And at Hail Mary prices, I want to take penny flyers on the two fillies, Classic Flower and Pandora's Gift. There are reasons to believe both could step forward a chunk on what they've achieved under these markedly different conditions and, while they might fail badly, the price justifies small interest. Two fillies have won this in its short history so there are no reservations on that score: it's 'simply' whether they'll be remotely good enough!

If I'm wrong about the Sheikh Obaid pair, so be it, but it looks a more open contest than the top two to me...

Suggestion: 80% of a unit win Jasour at 6/1, 5% e/w Classic Flower 33/1 and 5% e/w 25/1 Pandora's Gift

 

3.45 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

Preview by Rory Delargy

Donnacha O’Brien’s Porta Fortuna is arguably more exposed than a few around her in the market for the Coronation Stakes, but she is proven at the highest level and her form stacks up well given she has previous at the track and the likely fast ground suits her ideally.

Porta Fortuna was a decisive winner of the Albany Stakes here twelve months ago, where she impressed with the way she moved through the race before taking it up at the furlong pole and repelling the challenge of Matrika. She was below form on softer ground in both the Phoenix Stakes and the Moyglare Stud Stakes (5¾ lengths joint-third to subsequent Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel) but belatedly built on her Royal Ascot win when clocking a smart time in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket at the end of September, beating Rubies And Pearls by a length and a half on ground Timeform called good to firm.

She then ran a screamer in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf on her first try at a mile, and again shaped really well after an absence when second in the 1000 Guineas on good ground. She was forced to go earlier than ideal there in pursuit of Ramatuelle, and that pair gave Guineas winner Elmalka a target to aim at, with the margin between the trio at the line very small. The closing sectional suggesting that the winner was favoured by making her move latest of all.

The pair she split are both respected but I’m more than happy to continue to support Porta Fortuna, who has more than once shown herself to be very game under pressure. The fact that she is proven on track and ground is a big positive and the turning mile should suit better than the straight one at Newmarket given her tactical speed.

Ramatuelle could be considered an unlucky loser at Newmarket with plenty blaming Aurelien Lemaitre for kicking too soon but, while Lemaitre has made a couple of high-profile errors, I thought he gave the Justify filly an excellent ride, maximising her superior speed at a crucial part of the race and almost stealing it as a result. My view is that she barely stays 7f and that she will be vulnerable here where she has a draw in stall one which means she must either be ridden aggressively to get track position, or hope that others give her room which is far from certain.

Elmalka is unexposed and will be fancied by many to progress again, but we saw Notable Speech fail to match his 2000 Guineas effort in the St James’s Palace earlier in the week, and Ascot does present challenges of its own. As mentioned, I thought that while the ground she made up late looked remarkable she happened to be in the right part of the track the way that race unfolded, and I’m not sold on her superiority on the day.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Porta Fortuna @ 7/1 (general)

 

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4.25 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is probably my favourite race of the week and one of the best course and distances to have a bet on in big fields. That’s because there is a strong draw bias that is largely overlooked in the betting.

 

 

The line graph above shows the PRB3 performance by draw. It’s quite clear that the bottom eight or so stalls perform far worse than any higher stall and this trend is repeated with the win and place data too. The lowest seven stalls have won four handicaps on good or better ground whilst the next eleven stalls have won twenty times in the same time period.

The heat map shows draw and pace in combination and this is even more enlightening. There seems to be a fairly significant advantage in racing prominently or in mid-division from middle to high draws. Those run styles/draw combinations have accounted for 14 of the last 20 handicap winners in these conditions.

The only other ‘positive’ draw and run style combination is leaders from middle draws. The worst performing combinations are high drawn front runners and low drawn hold up performers.

It’s relatively easy to explain this draw bias. Big field mile and a half handicaps here can be really rough races where those on the rail often don’t get anything resembling a clear run. They don’t get long to sort themselves out in the straight so the horses that are a bit handier, and on the outside, are well positioned in relation to the lead and are pretty much guaranteed a clear run.

Fortunately, the one I’ve liked for this since the declarations first came out is a prominent racer and drawn high, which should see him to maximum effect. For quick reference, you can use the Geegeez Gold pace map below to see which horses fall into the likely advantaged category here.

 

 

On Tuesday I was strongly against Belloccio in the Copper Horse Stakes because Willie Mullins needed to suddenly improve the horse by 10lbs+ on turf for him to figure. Mullins worked his magic and the horse won well. My gripe with the Mullins horses is we know from previous experience that they are very likely to win or run well. At the same time, they often come here unproven over the trips at which they are running, unproven on the ground and their handicap marks are usually complete guesswork. That’s not the case with Ethical Diamond who ticks all those boxes and also even boasts some of my beloved ‘hot form’.

As a 3yo, before moving to Mullins’ yard he improved for the step up in trip from 10f to 12f, when beating a subsequently 94-rated runner up by 2 lengths giving her 5lbs. That run alone makes him look well treated as he is also rated 94 now himself.

He didn’t really fire over hurdles for Mullins but the ground was testing on all three occasions and he was very highly tried. The return to the flat in May did the trick, though, as he was beaten just a short head over 10f at Leopardstown. The winner has since won a handicap off an 8lb higher mark (admittedly over further) whilst the 3rd has since won a 19-runner handicap (admittedly over shorter).

Ethical Diamond has unfortunately gone up 5lbs for that effort but the form looks strong and he’s almost certain to improve for the step back up to 12f here. He likes to race prominently and is drawn in stall 18 (will probably be 16 by the time the reserves come out) so the only thing not to get excited about is the price. He’s around 5/2 at the time of writing and although that might seem short in a big field handicap, it looks pretty fair given how lightly raced he is and the scope there is for more to come stepping back up in trip.

If the race doesn’t go to Willie Mullins, it still looks more than likely it will go back to Ireland as they have a strong grip on this. Crystal Black is a very progressive rival, winning four of his last five starts. He’s been winning over a mile and also 10f and having that mile pace suggests he might not see out this trip. He’s also drawn in stall 4 which is another reason I'm happy to take him on.

Deakin represents last year’s winning trainer, Joseph O'Brien, and he was a neck behind Crystal Black over 10f last time out. Unlike Crystal Black, he’s very much proven over this trip and should have a good chance of reversing that form here considering the extra trip and also the fact he’s drawn in stall 21 (will be 18 after the reserves come out). He’s unproven on fast ground but has coped fine with good and looks a likely player.

Behind Crystal Black and Deakin last time out was Safecracker and he looks overpriced at 16/1 or so. He’s proven over this longer trip and, crucially, is also proven on fast ground. His run style isn’t ideal for the round course but I wouldn’t be surprised if he too reverses form with Crystal Black.

The home challenge is headed by Shadow Dance, a Roger Varian-trained 4yo who hasn’t run since finishing runner up in the Old Rowley Cup in October, traditionally one of the stronger 3yo races of the season (last year’s renewal has produced future winners yet again). Varian’s horses have generally been running to form first time out this season and Perotto had the same prep before finishing 3rd in Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup. He’s likely to be seen to best effect over further in future and I think he might end up poorly positioned so I’d be slightly again him here, but I fancy his chances of winning a decent 14f handicap before long.

La Yakel also reappears here after a break and, given he’s generally looked better over shorter and on softer turf, he is opposable from stall 1. Fairbanks and Sea King are both progressive and in form but stalls 2 and 6 could be a disadvantage for that pair. In any case, Fairbanks probably showed the handicapper too much when winning comfortably on his penultimate start, and Sea King might be better in smaller fields and when fresh.

Bague D’Or was one I liked for the Copper Horse earlier in the week but the main angle with him is his record over 14f on fast ground. Back in trip, I’m far less keen on him.

In summary, I think there is a good chance we see an Irish one-two in this year's Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. I’m pretty keen on Ethical Diamond and I’m not put off by his price. Deakin is my clear next best and I might even have a little go on the forecast/exacta. I can see Shadow Dance and Safecracker finishing well from off the pace but they might be at a tactical disadvantage.

 

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5.05 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

These Royal Ascot handicaps do not get any easier and unfortunately for me it is not the strongest of trends races, not against the sort of pointers I use anyway.

However, it should be noted that the market has been some sort of guide with 13 of the 16 winners sent off 11/1 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger, 3/251, 25p. Having said that, between 2017-2020, three of the four races were won by 20/1+ shots, two trained by Charlie Fellowes, who isn’t represented this year. Over the last three renewals, those sent off 12/1+ are now 0/65, 6p. It would make all our jobs a little easier if the market continued to be some sort of guide, even though I do like the odd big priced-poke in such races.

Ignoring the market for the moment, there are a couple of pointers which can help. Horses that had two or three runs in the previous 90 days, who’d won or placed at least once on their last two starts and who’d run at Class 3+ at least once in their career, would have found 13/15 of the UK/Irish trained winners (Wesley Ward winning this in 2017, not included in these stats).

If that profile was to hold we'd be left with a long list of 12, but without any pointers to narrow it further other than hoping the market is once again a guide. Those twelve are:

Everlasting, Zaynab, Flight of Fancy, Fair Angellica, Battle Queen, Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, Arisaig, Soprano, Marcella, My Margie, Raknah

Looking at horses representing trainers who have won this race previously can also be useful.

- John & Thady Gosden: Cat Ninja, Mrs Morrell, D Fawless, Strutting
- Charlie (and Mark) Johnston: Arisaig
- Johnny Murtagh: Asian Daze

Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, and Arisaig are the three horses to hit my trends profile and which represent yards who know how to win this race.

I'm going for two each-way bets from the trends list, with as many places as you can find, and hope that once again it's the turn of an outsider to take this race.

Arisaig - 25/1 - EW - Charlie Johnston's filly has been in decent form, and his dad knew what was required to win the Sandringham so hopefully that's rubbed off. Arisaig appeared to appreciate more patient tactics when last seen, having been ridden very aggressively at Newmarket the time before, but still running with credit. She showed an impressive change of gear at Lingfield and won like a horse on the upgrade. It was a performance to think that a fast run mile on this straight course with plenty of cover up the middle could be just what she wants. I always like the booking of Jamie Spencer on this track, where you can almost back him blind each way at the Royal Meeting for interest stakes; and he got the job done again yesterday with a 16/1 > 5/1 SP winner. He booted home 90/1 and 140/1 BFSP winners last year. Spencer will switch Arisaig off, get her in a rhythm and allow her to finish her race - I'd like to think that may be good enough to run into the places here, and who knows after that? Evidently she needs to step up again, but she's going the right way and her relative experience could be worth plenty here.

Soprano - 25/1 - EW - George Boughey's filly has been highly tried in her career to date - straight into Group 3s and Listed contests after her Newmarket maiden win - and this is her handicap debut having finished her juvenile season 'winning' her side in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She's been running with credit, but often running on in small fields with the leaders having set sail for home. It's her first attempt at a mile, and trying such a trip here is never ideal, but that's built into the price and is arguably a reason for a jolt of improvement. Like Arisaig, she may relish this strong pace, being covered up and running through tiring horses. She's related to a few milers on her dam side, so fingers crossed she appreciates the extra distance. Billy Loughnane was on the scoresheet on Day 1 and I'm hoping he'll be patient and try and thread his way through. The yard is in fine form also. Soprano has a touch of class and if seeing out the trip can hopefully grab a place at worst. As always, if you can grab a place, you can win, so fingers crossed.

Predicting any draw bias on this straight track appears impossible and so far this week it appears to have been riding fairly, more a case of where the sustained pace comes from. These two will have the option of staying up the middle, though Jamie could go low if he wishes and Billy could go high if wanted, so all bases covered there.

It could be the market has this right again, Indelible stepping out of maiden/novice company, but she does look very short to my eyes. Ralph Beckett is 0/10, 0p in the race also, which wouldn't fill me with confidence if wading in, but maybe she's just a cut above these - the market suggests so and given how good Ralph is generally, and especially with fillies, he will surely win this at some point.

I could name ten more horses and get nowhere near the winner, it's that sort of contest! However, Arisaig and Soprano are two lively outsiders who look overpriced to my eyes. Some bookies are paying as far down as eight places, which could help! Good luck with any bets.

 

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5.40 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

For the purposes of the trends we'll overlook the result from 2020 because, due to Covid, the Derby was actually run after Royal Ascot that year.

Traditionally sandwiched in the middle of the Epsom and Irish Derby's the 'Ascot Derby' is a pale shadow of either of those Group 1's, and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time although the Derby second did run, and win, last year. In fact, five of the last seven winners had their last start at Epsom where they had finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th (twice).

This year we have just two Derby runners taking part: Voyage, who was actually first past the post at Epsom but did so without a jockey having stumbled and unseated Pat Dobbs shortly after leaving the starting stalls, and Macduff who was quietly fancied for the race but pulled too hard and never got himself into a challenging position.

So, as is usual for the King Edward VII we have a field made up of a couple of also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable, a couple of winners stepping up from novice company and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some black type and place money. We do also have a couple of French raiders to spice things up this year, however, including the 5th from the Prix du Jockey Club.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race where they finished in the first four (unless it was the Derby). All of the last nine winners were rated 103+ and, interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had yet to win a Group race. It also hasn't paid to get too fancy odds wise recently with four of the last five favourites winning and eight of the last nine winners returning 7/1 or shorter.

We can knock a few out on the trends for one reason or another but there are still plenty of the field that seem to tick all the boxes so I'm simply going to go with that recent trend regarding the Epsom runners and side with the horse that was down the field in the Derby.

MACDUFF did well as a 2yo and rounded off his season with a 4th in the Royal Lodge before shaping with promise in the Classic Trial at Sandown on his seasonal debut. He was a staying on second there behind Arabian Crown and, on the back of that run, he was nibbled at ante post at big prices for the Derby and was eventually sent off at 14/1. Taking a keen hold he never really got going and raced in rear throughout to come home a disappointing 13th of the 16 runners. Ralph Beckett now reaches for the first time cheekpieces in the hope they'll help settle him (Macduff not Beckett!) and I'm willing to give him another chance based on his earlier form. He wouldn't be the first horse to fail to handle Epsom before winning here, and he does seem a big price on what he had achieved before Derby day.

SELECTION: MACDUFF 1/2pt EW 25/1

 

6.15 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

Pace. It’s important. We’re always told “pace yourself”, whether that’s life in general, or you’re on a three-day bender over a bank holiday weekend. (Please drink responsibly.) Without a certain amount of pace, we’d never get to where we want to go. And if it’s over five furlongs at Royal Ascot, you arguably need a bucketful of it, and that’s what this field has. And in spades, too. Buckets and spades...

Wherever you look here, there’s pace: seven of the nine runners drawn in single figures have led at some point in their last three runs, four from the middle and five from those drawn 20 and above. That’s pretty much half the field that like a view of the front, and unless one of them is an Art Power in disguise - remember him back in 2020, they came here instead of the Commonwealth Cup and he absolutely took them apart with a devastating display of front-running - I cannot help but think this will suit something that can travel in midfield and come through late to win it.

Step forward Blue Storm, who has already taken one big handicap this season after winning the 3yo Dash at Epsom last time out, reversing form with three of those that had finished in front of him at Chester on his seasonal reappearance the time before. He was nicely on top at Epsom late, and this stiffer track should suit even better. A 6lb rise for that is fair, he’s now proven himself in a full field, he’ll travel well in centre pack and has the strength late to play a part. He ticks a lot of boxes for a 14-1 chance, for me, and heads up my list.

Fantasy Master hit the frame in this back in 2021 for Mick Appleby and his Shagraan has a similar sort of profile. You’d be hard pressed to say he was unlucky against Equity Law at Sandown two starts back but I was impressed with the way he travelled there and, once he did find the gaps, he stayed on well for second. I thought at the time this might be the race for him after that effort. He did nothing to dissuade me when third to James’s Delight at Newmarket last time, form that’s already working out, and I think he can reverse placings with second home Two Tribes if given a more patient ride today. Mick seems to have rejuvenated the horse after he left Clive Cox, and I suspect he’s had this race in mind for some time. Stall 19 gives him options, too.

Speaking of Clive Cox, his Symbology is worth a mention at a huge price as well. The negatives aren’t hard to find - she’s not shown much in two starts this year, although in her defence, she’d probably have needed her first start of the year in the Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury after nine months away from the track, and then she got no cover at the weekend when well held in the Scurry Stakes. So, yes, you have to be forgiving, but here’s the figures bit - Clive Cox, when running his handicappers within seven days of their last run, is 9-46, which is pretty good on its own, but even better when the expected winners was just over six.

There’s a lot to take on trust and ideally I’d have preferred another furlong, but at 66-1 we don’t have to pay a lot to find out whether she can bounce back to form on a track for which she’s already shown a liking. (In fact, she’s the only horse in the whole field to have finished in the frame at Ascot previously. Another little plus…)

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And that, dear reader, is that. 28 races covered by seven writers, six of them guests, across four days; and a great smattering of winners already in their midst. Thank you for making geegeez.co.uk a part of your Royal Ascot 2024 experience and, if you like what we do and are not yet a member of our multi-award winning Gold racecards and form tools service, you can take it for a spin for as little as £1 at this link.

Thanks again, and be lucky.
Matt

p.s. What did you think of the previews this week? Did you enjoy them? And what was your personal highlight of the week so far? Please leave a comment below and let us know

Royal Ascot 2024: Day 3 (Thursday) Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

Eyes down look in for another full house: seven more devilishly difficult punting puzzles. And, as is the usual way of it during Royal Ascot, it's quality from top to bottom. The feature race of the day is the historic pinnacle of the whole week, the Gold Cup, a Group 1 contested over two and a half miles. Kyprios is a very warm order in his bid to regain a crown he was unable to defend last year. Before that, though, it's the flying juvies in the...

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

I’m writing this preview having just watched Electrolyte, my pick in the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday go agonisingly close at 40/1 SP. On we go...

The Group 2 Norfolk Stakes kicks off Day 3. It’s one of the highlights of the juvenile races at Royal Ascot, specifically showcasing two-year-old sprinters. Originally known as the New Stakes, it has a rich history dating back to 1843. It was renamed in honour of the Duke of Norfolk in 1973. The race has been a stepping stone for many future stars in the sprinting world. Trainers, such as Richard Fahey, Aidan O’Brien and Wesley Ward have had notable success in the race in the past decade.

Horses that have demonstrated early speed and can break well from the gates are often at an advantage in this fast 5-furlong dash.

The race is a 'Win and You're In' race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Key Contenders:

Thirteen colts and geldings and one filly have been declared for this year’s renewal. We have a short- priced favourite in Whistlejacket. The Aidan O’Brien trained colt is a full brother to Little Big Bear who won the Windsor Castle Stakes for Aidan in 2022. Whistlejacket built on a promising racecourse debut when making all to win a Listed race (5f) at the Curragh. He finished 3¾ lengths in front of Arizona Blaze who has since gone onto win a Group 3 (6f), also at the Curragh. It’s hard to see Arizona Blaze reversing places with Whistlejacket.

Big spending Wathnan Racing have a couple of contenders in Shareholder and Aesterius. Shareholder, the choice of retained jockey James Doyle, looked a very well developed juvenile when overcoming greenness to win the Two Year Old Trophy at Beverley 12 days ago. He’s capable of better and should be in the mix. Aesterius knew his job when winning at Bath on his racecourse debut last month: despite being up with the pace all the way the colt was still strong at the finish. He looked a good prospect in victory and can improve further. Trainer Archie Watson went so close in the Coventry Stakes and Aesterius can do the same for him here.

Moving Force battled on well but was just touched off by Shareholder at Beverley. He was trying to give the winner 7lb so it was a good effort, and he can progress again. Trainer Richard Fahey saddled the winner in 2021 & 2022.

Saturday Flirt, trained by Wesley Ward, is the only filly in the line-up. The daughter of Mendelssohn came from off the pace to win at Keeneland (5½ f) on debut in April. She now runs in the colours of Mrs Fitri Hay and must be respected.

Tropical Storm left behind his debut effort when a much improved neck 2nd of 7 to The Actor at Newbury last month. He’ll need to step up again to win his but could well do so.

Norfolk Stakes Verdict:

It’s possible that Whistlejacket will prove much too good for his rivals. However, he’s plenty short enough for me and I prefer the claims of Aesterius, who is a standout 14/1 with Bet365 / William Hill and worth taking each-way.

Betting Advice:
Aesterius £4 each way – 14/1 @ Bet365.

 

 

3.05 King George V Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

I’d be lost without my own trends and stats for these ‘festival’ handicaps and, having already served me well in this year’s Ascot Stakes with a 20/1 winner, hopefully they can help us out here. That’s even more true with a 3YO only handicap where the majority of runners seemingly arrive in decent form and are open to improvement. Let’s dive in…

16/16 were rated OR 95 or lower (0/38, 10p rated higher, small numbers and the placed horses suggest that may fall sooner rather than later, only three runners this year OR96+)

14/14 (of those with a career win) had won at Class 4 level or higher

14/14 (of those with a career win) had won at least once on their last two starts

Applying those pointers would leave us a short list of six…

Going The Distance, Fouroneohfever, Gallantly, City Burglar, Warda Jamila and Naval Force

I should add two further horses, both rated 95 or lower, who’ve yet to win in their career in the UK/Ireland, (my trends ignore form from other racing jurisdictions) … French Duke and Autumn Winter.

I will add one other stat, mainly as it’s a potential negative for City Burglar, but those drawn in stalls 1 or 2 in the period are now 0/30, 3p. I suspect said horses either use up too much gas trying to get a prominent position early, or end up behind a wall of horses as the race hots up. It’s sure to be broken one of these years, though, and not many fancied horses have had a go.

Now we just need to hope the trends profile holds, as that makes our job easier, with eight horses to focus on instead of twenty. Still, assuming the winner is in those eight, landing on the right one is still a challenge!

Where possible I don’t like applying too many trends to form a shortlist but with 15/16 winners being colts, if upholding that would leave Fouroneohfever, Gallantly and City Burglar, and the two who’ve yet to win a race… French Duke and Autumn Winter. All of those finished in the top three last time out which has been a big positive also.

The trainers…

Given racehorse trainers would tend to be creatures of habit, it can pay to focus on those handlers who have previously won said race, as they know the type required to get the job done and this may well have been the target.

The trainers who have won this race in the previous sixteen renewals, are represented by…
- Aidan O’Brien: Chantilly, Gallantly, Gasper De Lemos, Autumn Winter
- Ralph Beckett: Going The Distance, Poniros, City Burglar
- William Haggas: Glided Warrior

Cross-referencing the stats and the trainers gives… Going The Distance, City Burglar, Autumn Winter and Gallantly

For those of you who enjoy solving the puzzle hopefully the above may help.

So, where have my darts landed?

Looking at this race a couple of things strike me: firstly, no horse has yet won on officially Good to Firm ground and only City Burglar has even placed on such a surface, all bar three horses have yet to encounter fast ground – some of these are going to improve for conditions, and that could be a reason for something in here taking a massive step forward, notwithstanding this may be the most frantic gallop most of these have ever experienced.

The Geegeez Pace map suggests this could be frantically run with a few who like to lead and many who like to race prominently and push the pace. We’ll see how it transpires but this may go to a jockey who engages their brain and sits off the early fractions…

French Duke – 9/1 - the first of the two who are yet to win a race, but in this race that sort is 2/8, 3p +185 BFSP, so it’s certainly been no hindrance, and this son of Sea The Stars did all but win when last seen. He’s one of the few in here who could drop in, he’ll need some luck, but William Buick knows his way around this course and distance (5/26, 8p last five years) as does Roger Varian: while he’s only had two runners in this race previously, he’s 5/16, 6p +14 SP with all runners over this track and trip, and the yard are hitting form. French Duke is thoroughly unexposed, should strip fitter for his return run where he may have done too much too soon, and could improve for fast turf and this further step up in trip. I expect him to be running at them late, we’ll see if he gets the gaps.

Autumn Winter – 20/1 - the other one from my list yet to win a race, but Aidan O’Brien knows what’s required, his one winner of this returning 22/1 SP. The booking of Jim Crowley suggests he’s down the pecking order, but he makes handicap debut here after some promising maiden efforts, all in heavy ground. This Galileo colt could well transform for a sounder surface, and a half mile step up in trip. Given the longer race I hope his rider drops him in behind the pace.

Naval Force – 33/1 - one at an even bigger price here for Donnacha O’Brien, who had a group winner at last year’s meeting. There are plenty of unknowns about this son of Churchill also, his first go on faster turf which I think may well suit him, and again a step up in trip to the longest distance he’s faced. Donnacha wouldn’t send him simply for a day out, and he could be a lively outsider in a race where price has been no barrier to success.

Those three darts will do for me in an ultra-competitive handicap. I may not have mentioned the winner, or indeed picked the right ones from the trends list, but they’re the most interesting to my eyes and with any luck they give us something to cheer.

 

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3.45 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

A Group 2 over the Oaks distance for Classic generation fillies, and a race that Teams Gosden and Ballydoyle have held in a half nelson since 2014. During that decade, only Jessica Harrington (2022) and David Wachman (2015) have encroached upon the duopoly. It may be little surprise then that those two powerhouse yards will saddle five runners between them, three for John and Thady, two for Aidan.

None of that quintet is favoured, however, that honour bestowed upon Diamond Rain, a gorgeous daughter of Shamardal out of Oaks winner Dancing Rain. Trained by Charlie Appleby she was unraced at two and, as a three-year-old this term, is unbeaten in two. The first of that pair of wins was here at a mile, the second a striking saunter in a noted Oaks trial at Newbury, Listed level. She skipped Epsom and steps up two furlongs and two grades to contest this. Drawn inside and a prominent racer last time, she's going to be very hard to beat.

Second in the betting lists is Kalpana, trained by Andrew Balding for Juddmonte. She's another who didn't race as a juvenile, but has had four spins in 2024 starting with a neck verdict at Wolverhampton in January. She then bumped into the very smart Inisherin (6th in the 2000 Guineas and now favourite for the Commonwealth Cup on Friday) over a mile at Newcastle before winning a nine-runner Newmarket handicap by ten lengths. Ten! Upped to Listed class last time, over the same ten furlong course and distance as her handicap stroll, she pulled a dozen lengths clear of the third but couldn't quite reel in Friendly Soul.

Aidan's pair are Port Fairy and Rubies Are Red. The former was just caught by the re-opposing Forest Fairy in the Cheshire Oaks last time; while Port F hasn't run since, Forest F rocked up in the Oaks, finishing 17 lengths behind the winner. That doesn't look like Ribblesdale-winning form even allowing for maybe not handling the track that day. Rubies Are Red was even further back at Epsom and is now a four race maiden, though she did run a solid race in the Lingfield Oaks Trial when second.

Best of the three Oaks fillies to contest this was You Got To Me, who finished fourth. She'd previously won half a length in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, a run that puts her close to Rubies Are Red. I think Ralph Beckett's filly is the better but I'm not totally sold on her stamina.

In third at Lingfield was Danielle, for the Gosdens. That is the best of her four efforts to date and she'd need to improve a stone to win. John and Thady also send Siyola, a twice-raced debut winner who ran third behind Diamond Rain in the Newbury Listed race. She was a bit keen in the race that day and, with this bigger field offering prospects of a bit of cover and settling better, she might be able to get closer to the winner there this time; they are both open to plenty of improvement.

Queens Fort rounds out the Clarehaven Stables trio. Another twice-raced filly, she was fourth in a mile and a quarter maiden here on her first run before taking a mile and a half maiden on the all-weather at Lingfield last time. It's a quantum leap from that to this but she's a Galileo out of a smart mare so she, too, could improve again (and she, too, will need to).

Lava Stream is a different model altogether. Trained by David O'Meara she's had six runs, losing the first three and winning the most recent three. Although not obviously bred for this far - by Too Darn Hot - there is stamina on the dam's side and she needed all of the ten furlongs to prevail at Goodwood last time in Listed class. She's a bit of a 'now' filly, improving fast this season, and I quite like her as a late runner to get into the frame. I can't make a case for any of Je Zous, Higher Leaves or Sheema's Rose, which is not to say they won't win of course.

From a betting perspective, she's not much of a price but 13/8 DIAMOND RAIN has looked all class in two starts to date. There's a very good chance she'll take this further step up - in class and distance - in her ample stride. In the each way markets, I can't resist a small play on 25/1 Lava Stream who was doing all her best work at the finish last time and looks deceptively progressive.

 

4.25 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

Some races are easier to analyse than others, and some are a nightmare, with little form to tie the contestants together. The Gold Cup falls into the first category but is no less intriguing for all that most of the major contenders have intertwined form. The best horse in the contest based on historical form is the 2022 winner Kyprios, but whether you judge him on that form or his runs since returning from an injury last autumn is the key debate to have.

Based on that stellar season where he racked up a series of Group 1 wins, including a career-highlight in the Prix du Cadran which he won by 20 lengths despite literally going walkabout in the closing stages, he will be hard to beat, and his odds are predicated on the notion that he’s as good as ever.

It is possible to argue that two workmanlike wins against inferior rivals this term are a fair bit short of the form he showed then, and he was turned over in the Long Distance Cup by Trawlerman on British Champions Day. The excuses that day were that he had an interrupted prep and that Frankie Dettori outrode Ryan Moore tactically, and there is some merit in both, but excuses are just that. Trawlerman won at level weights when the pair clashed last year and the Godolphin horse has improved markedly in the last 18 months, as shown by his latest third in the Dubai Gold Cup, a race he was well beaten in twelve months prior, before winning all three starts on British soil.

Winner of the 2022 Ebor, Trawlerman showed his liking for Ascot with a close third in the Long Distance Cup later that year, and his British form in the last two years has been progressive since being fitted with a hood, with form figures on home soil reading 113111. He failed to fire in the Middle East last year so his third to Tower Of London in the Dubai Gold Cup was encouraging, especially as he rallied late having been headed. The key feature of his win here on Champions Day was that he also rallied to regain the lead having been headed by Kyprios in the home straight, and he gives the impression that he will be even better suited by the longer trip of the Gold Cup.

I don’t really get why Trawlerman’s stablemate Gregory is a shorter price than him, with his best effort a win in the Queen’s Vase here last year. He’s lost all three subsequent starts by the guts of five lengths each time and while he may appreciate the longer trip, he needs to improve by 7lb to match the leading pair and I'm less convinced than others that he will relish the step up from 1¾m to 2½m at the first try. Vauban was in front of him in the Yorkshire Cup last time, but doesn’t look to be crying out for a stiffer test, and his win here last year was in handicap company over 1¾m which leaves him with a bit to find. It’s a similar story for last year’s Ebor runner-up Sweet William, who does at least hold Caius Chorister on Henry II Stakes form at Sandown.

Coltrane beat Caius Chorister the same narrow margin as Sweet William did when winning the Sagaro Stakes here and there is little between the trio, who have place claims but seem held on collateral form. Ironically, Trueshan proved he didn’t need softish ground when winning the Prix du Cadran last year and he also beat Sweet William at Doncaster prior to that. He could outrun his lengthy odds if allowed to run, for all his participation must be in doubt given previous late withdrawals from this race.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Trawlerman @ 8/1 (general – 3 places)

 

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5.05 Britannia Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

There are some very strong trends associated with the Britannia handicap and hopefully they can narrow down the field sufficiently to help us find the winner. I'm going to ignore the result for 2020, due to the Covid outbreak, as Royal Ascot was run out of order with some of the major meetings that year and without the usual build up to the race for these 3yo's.

The most striking stat from the last 12 non-Covid renewals is that they had all finished top five on their last run (71 losers finishing 6th or worse last time out).

Looking at some other stats we can see that all of the last 12 winners had run in the previous nine weeks (63 days) with all 28 horses trying to defy such a break beaten (just two placed). Other types of runners that we can overlook in the Britannia include those dropping down in trip compared to their last run (55 losers in the last 12 years), those that last ran on the all-weather (34 losers / 4 placed), those that last ran in a maiden (all 17 such runners unplaced) and any rated under 87 or carrying less than 8-04 (all ten unplaced).

Unfortunately, this year those trends don't help us too much with only a handful of runners ruled out; but if we look at the other end of the weights we can see that only one winner has managed to carry more than 9-03 and only one winner has managed to defy a rating of 100+ (Aidan O'Brien's War Envoy in 2015) from the 55 to have tried over the last 12 years. In fact, since War Envoy won in 2015, all eight winners have been rated in the 90's (three of the eight were rated exactly 90).

A typical Britannia winner is also fairly lightly raced with ten of the last 12 winners having raced 3-6 times in their career and when coupled with what has been a fairly significant draw bias in the Britannia (high numbers have dominated this century including nine of the last 10 winners coming from a double figure draw) this would take us down to a shortlist of five: Involvement, Qirat, Artic Thunder, Mickley and Skukuza.

Of the five I quite like the look of ARTIC THUNDER who two starts back got within three lengths of the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech (didn't run his race in yesterday's St James Palace) at level weights, leading that race until the final furlong. He showed that performance was no fluke when going to Ascot to win a Class 2 handicap by a short head with the third horse 3 1/2 lengths back and, despite going up 7lb, could still be well in going by that Kempton run.

The step back up to a mile shouldn't be a problem as he was sticking on well at Ascot and always looked to have the measure of the runner up. It's a big field of mostly unexposed 3yo handicappers but his trainer did win this race in 2014 and the selection seems to fit the profile of a typical Britannia winner. He's worth chancing at the odds.

SELECTION: ARCTIC THUNDER 28/1

 

5.40 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

The only winning favourite in the last five years for the Hampton Court Stakes has been Mohaafeth, who had been due to run in the Derby before a last-minute injury kept him away from the race; but, equally, the biggest-priced winner in that period has been 7-1, which both Claymore (when defeating the long odds-on Reach for The Moon) and Waipiro were when winning in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

So we don’t usually have to look too far down the market to find the winner, and we might not have to look far at all if the fast-improving King’s Gambit takes another step forward after his easy Newbury win last time out.

It was hard not to be impressed with the manner of that win, showing a very smart turn of foot after being produced at the furlong pole, and the way he powered on to pull four lengths clear of the improving Poniros, with previous winner Chantilly back in third, was impressive.

The fact that connections weren’t trying to win clever with him rather suggested that further handicaps weren’t on their minds anyway: just as well as he received a 14lb fine for it, but rather that they knew they have a Group horse on their hands and one that will be stepping up in grade sooner rather than later.

All the metrics of that win stack up, form and time figures both impressive, and now he’s proven himself on quicker ground, it’s hard to find many negatives to his chance.

Technically speaking, First Look’s second in the Prix du Jockey Club is a better piece of form but all of his turf form to date has come on ground no quicker than good, according to Timeform, and by Thursday it’s going to be very quick. (I can tell you from walking the course Tuesday morning there’s no give out there, and it’s only going to get quicker.) That has to be a concern, and for all he’s respected, King’s Gambit looks the better option.

Taraj changed hands for a pretty penny earlier in the week, with Amo Racing going to £480,000 to get him on Monday, and they will be looking for an immediate return. His third to Los Angeles in the Leopardstown Derby Trial reads well enough, but it needs improving upon.

You can, if you are the forgiving sort, make some sort of case for Jayarebe from the outside stall 12, which might suit his front-running style given there's not that much pace on here. He looked a useful sort when winning the Feilden Stakes back in April, for all that Newmarket was suiting front-runners at the time, and it’s worth remembering he had Derby second Ambiente Friendly behind him that day. He ran to a similar level at Chester in the Dee Stakes despite pulling too hard for his own good for the first half of the contest; the key will be getting him to settle in front and saving something for the final stages. Both Brian Meehan and Sean Levey are off the mark for the week, and of those at double-figure prices, he makes a bit more appeal than most.

 

6.15 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

I write this before any races have been run on Wednesday so it’s possible that, 13 races later when it’s time for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, there could be a fairly obvious draw bias. Despite being a little in the dark I’m relatively confident I know which side is going to be favoured here, and it’s not the side most of the market leaders have been drawn on…

 

 

Higher draws do have a better record over 7f here on fast ground but, quite remarkably, the main three pace angles in this race - and possibly the only three pace angles - will be emerging from stalls 1, 2 and 3. Arabian Storm is shown on the pace map as a potential leader from stall 15 but he’s a reserve and probably won’t get in.

Perhaps the ground will be faster on the near side by the time this race comes around and high draws might be favoured but it seems the lower drawn horses are going to get a much better tow into the race and I’m therefore largely attracted to lowish drawn hold up performers.

I do want to have Fresh on my side despite him exiting stall 30. He’s a three-time course winner and has also finished a close 2nd in the Wokingham previously. He might be a little regressive now at the age of 7, which is why he’s so well handicapped on older form (10lbs lower than his last win) but I’m a sucker for horses that perform very well in far from ideal circumstances (which he did), as it’s pretty certain they’ll run even better when getting the ideal setup.

He’s been slow to come to hand this season but he showed much more of his old sparkle last time at Haydock in a steadily run race over 6f where he was only beaten 1.5 lengths, and very much shaped as though a stiffer test would suit. If all the pace was on the near side I’d be having a hefty each way bet on Fresh but I think, in the circumstances, a small win only bet will suffice. Assuming he is drawn on the wrong side, he should be monitored in the near future as I think his turn is approaching.

The horses more likely to be well handicapped all seem to be drawn higher so I wouldn’t be surprised if the places are filled with big prices from the lower half of the draw. I was tempted by Greatgadian at 40/1, who might love a really well run 7f handicap having done most of his racing over further. He would have been a bet on his all-weather form but he does seem a better horse on artificial surfaces and for that reason I’ll leave him out of calculations from stall 4.

I’ve been watching Summerghand find the run of the race against him time and time again this season and the old boy has become extremely well handicapped again. He would have been my bet in the Wokingham had he looked likely to get in but the big question mark here is the trip. He’s always been a 6f specialist, though he was stepped up to 7f last time out at Newmarket and, because of his sole previous effort over this trip in the UK, I thought he had half a chance in that.

All the way back in 2019, Summerghand was 4th of 17 in soft ground in the Challenge Cup here off a mark of 102. Given he’s better on faster ground, that was an excellent effort and seemed to confirm that he gets 7f. But he got disappointingly outpaced last time at Newmarket though over the 7f trip and, whilst he finished well, he was never getting near the leaders. He’ll likely be better at this course but considering the winner was in a similar position to him about 3f out, the pace setup can’t be blamed for Summerghand’s performance there.

Still, I’m not sure the Rowley Mile course suits him so much these days so at 33/1 I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt slightly here from stall 13. He’s finished 2nd once, and 5th twice, in the Wokingham and he’s always been strong at the finish in those so must have some sort of chance from his lowest mark in over six years. If this isn't to be his day - he tends to show his very best form around August time - I expect him to take advantage of his slipping mark very soon.

Tacarib Bay has run in three handicaps at Ascot: he was 2nd to Tempus over a mile two years ago off a mark of 106; in the same year he was 3rd in the Balmoral off 104; and he was 6th (1st of 14 in his group) in last year’s renewal of this race off a mark of 103. All three of those runs make him look well handicapped off 99 here.

As recently as November he won a Listed sprint at Newcastle and, again over 6f at Newcastle in January, he was 5th off 106 in a hot handicap. He hasn’t beaten many home in three starts this season but headgear goes back on now suggesting this is either a bit of a plot, or a last roll of the dice. From stall 10, at 40/1, I’m willing to pay to find out.

In summary, the positioning of the pace makes the low draws too difficult to ignore. The more fancied runners mostly seem to be drawn high and I like the chances of Fresh on that side so I’m recommending a small win only bet on him (top price 20/1 at time of writing, similar available on Exchanges). I think low drawn horses at big prices could dominate the finish, though, and I’ll have further small win only bets on Summerghand (33/1) and Tacarib Bay (40/1). Low confidence, but saving stakes for a winner on Friday!

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Royal Ascot 2024: Day 2 (Wednesday) Preview, Tips

/in , /by

And so to the second finger of the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot KitKat: no Saturday here, that's for you. As you'll hopefully know by now, this week we're featuring guest previews from some trusted friends - and fine judges - alongside yours truly, starting today with John 'Victor Value' Burke in the Wednesday curtain-raiser, the...

2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Queen Mary Stakes is one of the most prestigious races for two-year-old fillies at Royal Ascot. First run in 1921, this race often features the most precocious and speedy fillies of the season, and many past winners have gone on to achieve significant success in their racing careers.

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Stall 17+: 4 winners from 37 runners +4.5, 9 places. (Stalls 1-16: 1 winner from 74 runners -68.5, 6 places).

Odds: 9/1 or shorter: 4 winners from 21 runners +7, 11 placed.

USA Trained: 2 winners from 11 runners +4.05, 4 placed.

The Listed Marygate Stakes at York’s Dante Meeting has been a good pointer to the Queen Mary producing three winners since 2008. This year’s race was won by Betty Clover who takes her place in the line-up.

Surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien has never won the Queen Mary.

Top Contenders:

Make Haste heads the ante post betting after creating a good impression when successful on racecourse debut at Naas last month. A speedy daughter of Blue Point she produced a good change of gear to win at Naas and is open to further improvement. Could have handy draw in stall 18.

Aidan O’Brien saddles Truly Enchanting who overcame greenness to win at Tipperary (soft) on debut 22 days ago. Strong at the finish last time the daughter of No Nay Never should be fine on quicker ground and looks a good prospect. Can she give her trainer a first Queen Mary success?

Leovanni, trained by Karl Burke, looked a smart prospect when winning a Nottingham maiden 14 days ago. Capable of better, it was good to firm that day so quick ground won’t faze her and she should go well.

Enchanting Empress made it 3 from 3 when winning the Listed National Stakes at Sandown (soft) last time. A reproduction of her Sandown form would probably be good enough to place in an average Queen Mary. Yet to race on ground better than good to soft but if she handles it she won’t be far away from stall 25.

Betty Clover was a winner at Bath on her racecourse debut  and returned to winning ways in the Listed Marygate Stakes last time. Came from off a strong pace to win at York and should benefit from Ascot’s stiffer 5f.

Ultima Grace, trained by Wesley Ward, looked speedy when winning on the dirt on debut at Keeneland (4 ½ f) in April. A daughter of American Pharoah, she’s likely got the scope for further improvement and shouldn’t be underestimated for a trainer who has won the race three times since 2015. Said by Ward to have worked well on grass and could be nicely berthed in stall 17.

Miss Rascal built on her racecourse debut promise when winning a course and distance maiden last month. Looked very professional when successful last time which will hold her in good stead here. Tom Marquand stays in the saddle. Likely to go well if stall five isn’t an inconvenience.

Queen Mary Stakes Verdict:

The Queen Mary Stakes promises to be an exciting sprint with a blend of precocious talent and potential future stars. Based on pace maps, the race is likely to be strongly contested from the start. Ascot’s five furlongs favours those who race prominently, so I’m focusing on horses who are likely to be close to the speed.

Ultima Grace has shown good early speed and should thrive on fast ground, and Miss Rascal impressed with her recent win over the course and distance. But Make Haste has garnered significant attention with connections turning down substantial offers, indicating their confidence in her potential.

Betting Advice:

My main selection is Make Haste but I’m having savers on Miss Rascal and Ultima Grace

• Make Haste: £16 win @ 6/1 with William Hill
• Miss Rascal: £2 win @ 10/1 with William Hill & Ladbrokes
• Ultima Grace: £2 win @ 11/1 with William Hill & bet365.

 

3.05 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

I’m gunning for HIGHBURY in this race, at around 7/2…

As always, let me start with some stats and trends… a historical ‘race profile’ points to previous winners having finished top 2 at least once on their last three starts, top 3 last time out, 0-2 runs this season, and having run over 1m4.5f or shorter last time out… this would have found 13 of the previous 16 winners, and 11 of the last 12.

IF this profile holds again, we’d be looking at a shortlist of just four… Illinois, Highbury, Grosvenor Square and Mina Rashid

It may also be worth noting that 15 of the last 16 winners were sent off 15/2 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger in the period a miserly 1/143, 20p.

To the trainers…

Those handlers to have won this race in the last 16 renewals, and represented today, include Andrew Balding (Mina Rashid), John & Thady Gosden (Pappano) and of course Aidan O’Brien, who leads the way with six winners from 28 runners, 13 places (inc. the winners), four of those sired by the late great Galileo, who is the daddy of all four of Aidan’s runners this year.

Staying with Aidan for the moment, his runners sent off 5/2 or shorter ISP are a perfect 3/3, which as I type is a positive for Illinois, but maybe he and Highbury will flip around, we shall see. Those sent off 10/3 or shorter ISP are 5/9, 5p +10 BFSP. Aidan was responsible for the only 8/1+ shot winning in the period.

Evidently there are no issues with the yard form. I’m writing this before the team’s Day 1 runners strut their stuff, but in the previous 14 days the Master of Ballydoyle is 11/23, 15p, 79% of rivals beaten. They’re firing on all cylinders and couldn’t be entering the week in much better nick, no excuses on that score.

Highbury…

He ticks a lot of boxes for me here and at 7/2 or so offers a shade of value, to my eyes at least. In truth I do not know if Ryan Moore had the choice here, he usually does however Wayne Lordan has been on for both his career runs, evidently knows him best and is 7/13, 8p when riding for his boss in the previous 14 days. He couldn’t be coming here in much better form, as now stable #2. Aidan’s ‘second’ and ‘third’ string jockeys have won this race a few times and it will be interesting to see what the market does as race time approaches.

Of all the O’Brien runners in the Queen's Vase this year, he has least to prove on the ground, supposedly Good to Firm when bolting up at Leopardstown 38 days ago over 1m4f. He travelled comfortably and won easily in a race that is working out very well: six horses have since run and all have either won or placed. He’s well drawn to race prominently, and the Geegeez Pace Map suggests team Ballydole may dominate from flag fall. I’d certainly expect Highbury to be in the top four after a furlong, in the perfect spot to pounce. There looks to be so much more to come from him, and he’ll no doubt relish this further step up in distance and bounce off the ground, which is a question for some. I’d make him favourite.

 

 

Ryan More rides Illinois, possibly why he’s favourite -I suspect were he on Highbury, they’d be the other way round. Or so I keep telling myself! That may be indicative of what the team expects but I’m not sure. In any case, Illinois looked uncomfortable around Lingfield on faster ground, his previous runs on a softer surface. He hung up the straight with an awkward head-carriage, and on that basis, at 2/1 or so, I wanted to oppose.

Maybe it was the undulating course, or an off day, but he looked far from happy and stayed on at the one pace, for all he beat the rest easily; and, of course, he bumped into The Derby runner-up. I wasn’t convinced he was crying out for further either, but I’m prepared to eat humble pie on that score. Aidan’s other two have questions on fast ground also, and I’d like to think that both the stable #1 and #2 can’t be wrong here, for all it’s happened before.

Having said that, Grosvenor Square has it in him to run into a place, entitled to improve on his effort at Chester which was his first start of the season. He shaped there as if he’d relish a stamina test, if handling Good to Firm, and I’d expect him to take a fair step forward. He may also be happier around this more galloping expanse.

Birdman could be staying on into the places if handling the ground, an unknown, but historically this goes to horses stepping up further in trip from their last start, who haven’t yet shown their hand over 1m5f+, which he did when winning a Listed race last time. Those running over such a distance when last seen are 0/29, 5p in this race, but that's clearly a stat which is there to be broken. I just feel there’s a chance he’ll lack the tactical pace required.

Mina Rashid could also make the frame for all, as previously discussed, historically this hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for bigger priced horses. The form of Chester is yet to be tested and I don’t like the fact he wears a hood – that suggests he could get worked up pre-race in this carnival atmosphere and you do not want to be pulling on your first start over 1m6f, in a Royal Ascot Group 2. It looks a fair step up, but Andrew Balding knows what’s needed to win this race - he took it with Dashing Willoughby in 2019 - which is worth something and, if settling, he could run a nice race if you prefer an each-way stab at something. At least we know he’ll handle the ground and he shapes like a stayer in the making. I wasn’t too taken with any others.

The more I look at this race, the more bullish I become on 7/2 Highbury’s chances, what could possibly go wrong?! Maybe Grosvenor Square or Mina Rashid will chase him home, for those who like to play the forecasts, but I'm try to get the current favourite beaten!

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3.45 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies and mares)

Preview by Matt Bisogno.

The Duke Of Cambridge, formerly Windsor Forest, Stakes is a mile Group 2 usually run on the straight track for older fillies and mares. This year, it moves to the round course. Since its inception in 2004, 17 of the 20 winners were four-year-olds and only Aljazzi in 2018 has won for five-year-olds and up since 2008. This is interesting because the current joint-favourites are both aged five.

They are last year's winner Rogue Millennium and the Gosdens-trained Laurel. Let's cover the Rogue first. Naturally, course and distance are no problem but she came into the race in much better form twelve months ago; then, she was dropping back a quarter mile in trip having run second at a big price in the G2 Middleton Stakes at York. That extra stamina proved to be the clincher as she ground down Random Harvest by a neck at the line. This season, she's run just once, a taking enough prep at the Curragh over a mile (G2, good) when never nearer than at the finish; the stiffer test here will suit better and she ought to come on for the run, but with so many less exposed fillies in opposition she's hardly a value price.

In her third season racing and with just five career starts under her belt, one couldn't describe Laurel as a hardy type (see what I did there?!) but she is commensurately unexposed. Those five starts comprise a Newmarket fillies' novice debut score, two Kempton all-weather wins (one at Listed level), a close second in the Group 1 Sun Chariot and a clunk when last seen in the 2023 Lockinge. So, we've not witnessed her on track for over a year and she has only a single piece of form to justify her price; granted, it's a strong piece of form, but it was recorded in October 2022.

Let's cast the net across the four-year-old cohort as they're 8/1 and bigger as I write. And, with this stiff mile taking some getting, I like the 'turn back' angle: horses shortening in trip from their last run. Historically that has most often brought into play the Princess Margaret Stakes at Epsom and the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket. A filly who stepped out in both is Running Lion, who was a fair second on her seasonal bow at HQ having over-raced in that small field, before enduring a hideously luckless passage down the inner at Epsom on Derby day.

Trained by John and Thady, and ridden by Oisin, Running Lion hasn't tried as short as a mile in her last six outings but she was previously unbeaten in three at the trip. With enough pace around to help her settle and with the slightly wider track at Ascot to mitigate for traffic problems, she's an interesting player.

It might be that the Epsom race is queenmaker in this year's Duke Of Cambridge, with three of the first four home - respectively the winner, 3rd and 4th, Breege, Royal Dress and Julia Augusta - as well as Running Lion re-opposing. It was an archetypically messy race on the Epsom cambers and bears reviewing. The first image below is just inside the final quarter mile with Running Lion (all green) locked up on the rail, the yellow of Julia Augusta and the light green with lilac cap of Breege in the clear; red striped cap is Royal Dress having a shoulder barge with Chic Colombine, also in the highlighted box...

 

 

And this is at the furlong pole: Running Lion eased off, Julia Augusta no more to give, Breege - unimpeded - falls in for the win from the fast-finishing Chic Colombine and Royal Dress.

 

 

The question is, how would things have panned out granted smooth transit for all runners? It's a puzzle and obviously somewhat subjective; my feeling is that Royal Dress would have won. Placing Running Lion, beaten less than four lengths, is nigh on impossible. What is easier to posit is that Julia Augusta and Breege were least inconvenienced, the winner not being far enough clear of the third (and the eighth?) to expect to confirm placings. Claro?!

In any case, Breege's best form has come with some give and, as you can probably tell, I'm looking elsewhere for my play. Royal Dress, by Night Of Thunder out of a Dynaformer mare, is unexposed at a mile and her pedigree says she ought to keep rolling all the way to the Ascot lollipop. A slow maturing type she doesn't have an admirable win record but may have been waiting for a stiffer test of this nature. Having won a mile soft ground Listed race at Goodwood on her four-year-old debut she would have arrived here unbeaten in 2024 in more fortuitous circumstances.

The other 'turn back' filly is Sea The Lady, trained in France by Christopher Head (formerly of Big Rock and Blue Rose Cen fame). In what seems to be something of a carousel of comings and goings at Head's yard, this filly arrived from Yann Barberot's over the winter and ran an encouraging stable debut when third in a Longchamp Group 3 at ten furlongs. She travelled well and exhibited a nice gear change before flattening out there: perhaps that was lack of race fitness, perhaps stamina running out, perhaps the very soft ground, and most likely a combination of those factors.

Back in trip, with a race under her belt and for a trainer who has shown he can target big pots at Ascot, she's at least an interesting runner. There is the niggle, however, that having been bought by UK breeders for €300,000 as a broodmare prospect she could be a(n expensive) ticket for the very good owners' luncheon. In short, she's hard to weigh up, the balance of her form likely not good enough.

One to have plied much of her recent trade over further is Novus, beaten a whisker by Royal Dress last time in that Goodwood Listed contest. She has form to put herself on the podium but probably would have preferred softer turf. While, of the recent pure milers, Ocean Jewel won a Group 2 at the Curragh last time and was unlucky in the run on her first try at this trip in the G1 Matron Stakes last September. Unlucky she may have been but she was nearly ten lengths behind the winner, with Rogue Millennium some way ahead that day. Still, she's quite lightly raced and unexposed at a mile and, consequently, a player.

Orchid Bloom wasn't too far behind Ocean Jewel last time but I don't see why placings should be reversed, all other things being equal.

In the end, I'm going back to the beginning, and the Princess Margaret form: I think 12/1 Royal Dress and 14/1 Running Lion are both backable at those prices.

 

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4.25 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

With warmer temperatures and a receding rain threat ensuring quick ground at Ascot, it’s hard to see a shock in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. The front pair in the market stand out on official ratings and both have shown their very best form on fast turf; so, while it’s tempting to find an each-way angle into races at the Royal meeting, sometimes you have to simply play the cards you’ve been dealt. In short, this looks a shootout between Auguste Rodin and Inspiral, and the former edges the verdict at the current prices.

White Birch seemed to beat Auguste Rodin on merit in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but while Joseph Murphy’s star is best with some cut in the ground, Auguste Rodin’s best form last year came when the turf was very quick. All three of his blowouts came on good or softer, including on watered turf at Meydan, whereas four runs on good to firm or firm resulted in wins in the Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Turf. That’s quite a haul for a “twicer”.

It's hard to be certain that the ground is the reason for Auguste Rodin’s inconsistency and he obviously won the Group 1 Futurity on heavy as a juvenile; but it’s also tough to deny that his firm ground efforts have been those of a superstar, his form on softer of late not in the same class. He can have no excuses, it seems.

Inspiral has been rerouted here from the Queen Anne, and while I think that’s the right call given she seems best around a turn, there has to be some debate about her stamina for a stiff ten furlongs. She won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over this trip at Santa Anita, again showing her liking for fast turf and a turning track, but the sharp circuit in California would place less emphasis on stamina than Ascot’s more demanding track.

Her best form gives her every chance and her draw is a positive as long as Kieran Shoemark has the confidence to keep her wide, but I wonder whether the tactics will be to tuck in at the back of the field in order to attempt to conserve her stamina. I suspect that will indeed be the case and I’m not a fan of dropping in from a wide draw at this track, as it makes you a hostage to fortune.

Talking of the jockey’s confidence, I wonder whether Shoemark has had his dented by defeats on Inspiral in the Lockinge and Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup. He was outmanoeuvred tactically in both races but was riding mares who – by their trainer’s admission – were not fit to do themselves justice. Shoemark is filling big shoes at Royal Ascot this week, and I’d have preferred to see him ride a big winner to get the proverbial monkey off his back. I’d be genuinely pleased to see him do that here but the percentage call in a situation like this is to side with Ryan Moore, who certainly won’t be second guessing what defeat might mean.

Recommended: 1pt win Auguste Rodin @ 7/4 (William Hill)

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5.05 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

My biggest headache for every Ascot meeting is the straight track draw - and, in truth, I’m no closer to figuring it out. I will go through the data shortly but there is only so much it can tell you. Last year, and in 2021, the places were dominated by very high drawn horses, yet the winners in those years came from stalls 7 and 4.

Gone are the days where anything can be confidently ruled out because of the draw, but is there any advantage at all?

 

 

Concentrate on the blue line on the first graph above, taken from the geegeez racecard DRAW tab, which shows the PRB3 (average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) in big field mile handicaps on good or better ground. There are some peaks and troughs but the overall feel I get is that you can run well from pretty much any draw.

What we see in the draw and pace combination graph is far more interesting and useful. This shows that there is a significant pace bias towards those that are held up but it also tells us that if you are held up, or race in mid division, the draw seems to have almost no impact on your chance overall. That’s not to say that in every race the low draws have the same chance as the high draws, it’s more a case of the high draws are favoured just as often as the low draws. That’s an important distinction and it’s an acknowledgement that there can be biases from race to race, but they are difficult to predict.

The other takeaway from the above graph is that prominent racers and front runners tend to perform worse when drawn higher. My guess at an explanation for that would be you tend to see slightly more runners come near side and that perhaps creates more pace pressure and competition for the lead amongst those drawn higher. That may or may not be a factor.

There may be some draw bias clues from Tuesday’s races (the second and third races in particular) but without having seen those races at the time of writing, the best clue we may get about the draw bias is to see where the pace is positioned on the track. Here is the geegeez racecard PACE map for the Royal Hunt Cup.

 

 

It is interesting that there are only two real pace angles in here and the fate of the low drawn horses may well rest with what Neil Callan decides to do aboard The Gatekeeper from stall 14. Hollie Doyle is expected to simply pop Regheeb out from stall 31 and go straight forward, near to the near side rail, but Neil Callan will either stay in the middle or go nearside (he surely won’t switch to the far side?). If he traverses to the near side then the low draws are in very big trouble as they could end up in a small group headed by Thunder Ball and all the real pace will then be near side.

So, looking at the pace map, I wouldn’t be surprised if the middle and stands’ side groups merge into one in the final few furlongs (similar to 2022) and in that year the middle-ish draws seemed to do well with draws on the flank slightly underperforming.

If The Gatekeeper comes near side then I can see lower draws struggling so I’d say the safest area of the draw might be around the 19 mark, as that covers middle and high, but I may be wrong!

I’m never keen on unproven stamina in this race and that means I’m immediately putting a line through Wild Tiger, even if stall 20 might end up the almost ideal position. I also think Real Gain might be a little too slow for this and ideally suited by further so I’m against him too.

Things finally fell right for Sonny Liston last time out for him to get an overdue success but he’s 11lbs higher than when runner up in this last year so I’ve got question marks over how well handicapped he is now. He’s in stall 19 so could be well placed.

The ground might have been a bit too testing for Coeur d’Or in the Balmoral here last season but I’d still have expected him to perform better given he wasn’t far from the pace in a race where there was a massive bias in favour of those up there early on, so I’m not convinced he’s got what it takes to win this either.

Metal Merchant surely wants softer and Streets Of Gold looks a proper 7f horse to my eye whilst Aerion Power is 5lbs higher than when 4th last year and possibly badly drawn in stall 1. That’s quite a few of the fancied horses with some sort of negative against them (in my opinion).

I do like Beshtani, given he was beaten just a short head by a subsequent winner at Epsom and gets to race here off the same mark. He looks a winner waiting to happen but I think there is a bit of risk attached backing anything drawn in single figures here, although stall 9 is obviously the highest of the single figures. This will be the fastest ground he’s faced and he was ridden fairly prominently at Epsom, which could be a negative here, but I like his general profile. If I was having a a third bet in the race, he would be it, but he’s short enough so I’m going to recommend two ‘punts’ at bigger prices.

PEROTTO was sent off favourite for this last year off a 5lb lower mark and it’s not difficult to see why. He won the 2021 Britannia Stakes off 99 and, having lost his way under Marcus Tregoning, he’d made a promising debut for Roger Varian in the Victoria Cup off a mark of just 97 and been dropped a pound since then.

He was ridden too close to the pace in last year’s race and didn’t really fire, although finishing 10th wasn’t a terrible effort. He ran better in a first time hood on his next start at Sandown when winning a good handicap off a 7lb lower mark than today. The next three home all won shortly after so that was a very good effort.

He got bogged down in soft ground in the Golden Mile at Goodwood next time (also drawn badly in that race) but still ran okay, and then he showed his true form on better ground on the round course here on Shergar Cup day, doing well to chase down the leader in a very steadily run race.

He’s gone up 3lbs for that and hasn’t been seen since as he reportedly had a setback in the Spring, but Roger Varian has stated he’s happy with him and his runners don’t normally need a racecourse outing before they show their form so he should be fit enough. Stall 17 is probably a good draw but I’d definitely be going win only as he obviously comes with risks attached.

Hopefully Tom Marquand switches him off early and allows him to come through horses and if that happens the top price of 20/1 could look very good, with the more generally available 14s and 16s just about acceptable. If going win only though, you’ll likely get a much bigger price on the Exchanges (available at 25 at the time of writing).

One at a very big price I wouldn’t mind having a small each way bet on is SILENT FILM. He’s run some decent races here in the past, finishing runner up off a 2lb higher mark in a 7f cavalry charge just under 2 years ago and finding himself too poorly placed when 4th to Perotto at the Shergar Cup over the round mile last season.

He was 2nd to Ouzo in Meydan in January, who won again next time out, and I’m particularly interested in his 10f 3rd at Epsom in April in a race where the 1st and 5th have both won since and the runner up has filled that same spot again in a big handicap on Derby day.

It does concern me that his worst efforts have all come on good to firm but all his winning has been on good so I’m not sure if that’s just a bit of a weird coincidence. Something always tends to run into the frame (at least) at 33/1+ so I wouldn’t put anyone off a small bet at that price (50/1 top price).

In summary, all draws being equal, I’d say 12/1 Beshtani is the most likely winner of this year’s renewal but in search for a little bit of ‘value’ I’m going for a small win only wager on 20/1 Perotto (will be bigger on the exchanges) and a small each way bet on 50/1 Silent Film.

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5.40 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Preview by our own David Massey

Two things you really should take note of when looking at this year’s renewal of the Kensington Palace Stakes are - one, it will take place on the straight course, which isn’t usually the case; and because of that, two, you’ll have had a pretty good clue as to whether there’s any draw biases as the Hunt Cup is the race on the card before this.

I suppose there’s a third thing as well, and that’s that there’s not a lot of pace on here, not on paper at least. Timeform suggest a very strong pace, but I don’t think it will be any more than evenly run. The geegeez pace map is below with, essentially, no horse in the 'led' column (which is to say, no horse has on average led in its last three starts - Moonspirit and Doha are the closest to that profile).

 

 

Top of my list is Ed Bethell’s Elim, who was progressive on the all-weather throughout the winter of 22/23 and came back from a year’s absence to be sent off favourite for what looked, at the time, an ordinary Redcar handicap a month ago. She did nothing wrong in finishing a close fourth, travelling well but just getting a bit tired late in the piece, looking very much like the run would bring her on.

As it turns out, that handicap has worked out better than expected, with winner Ron O following up in a warm race at York last week, and second, Arctic Mountain, after winning at Lingfield on next start, being sent off a very short price from a 5lb higher mark to also win at York last week. Sadly, tack issues meant we couldn’t see whether Arctic Mountain was well handicapped or not as he didn’t complete, but what we do know is that Elim races off the same mark as Redcar and looks potentially well treated here.

The nicely-bred Summer Of Love will probably want a bit further in time, but this stiff mile will suit, and don’t be put off by the fact she’s only seen the all-weather so far. I wrote an article last week about where last-time-out winners at Ascot come from, and the all-weather - particularly Newcastle and Kempton - comes out as a positive. All the same, 8-1 looks the rock-bottom price given her form is by no means the strongest in the race, and she does need to improve again.

Instead, let’s finish off with a couple of flyers at huge prices.

Farhh To Shy is going to be a 40-1 chance, give or take, and that’s the sort of price that, for a horse that will travel as well as anything, is going to give you a bit of excitement deep into the race. Watch her finish third to Cell Sa Beela here last October - sent off 14 on Betfair, she trades 6-4 at the furlong pole and you’d think it was a matter of how far she wins by. Sadly, she finds little off the bridle, not for the first time (or the last) and she does no more than hang on for third.

It was a similar story back at Ascot here in May, where again she travelled up like a good ‘un, but found three-fifths of naff all off the snaffle, and ended up sixth after looking like a place was far more likely. In truth, she’s a back-to-lay here for those so inclined, but one of these days she’s going to win a race without coming off the bridle and if there is more pace on here than I think there is, that can only be a help.

At 66-1, Canoodled is getting a fiver each-way lobbed in her direction too. There are too many moderate efforts on her report card to be confident about her chances, but there’s no way she can be the price she is based on her fourth in the aforementioned Ascot 7f handicap that Cell Sa Beela won last season (Farhh To Shy third), beaten just half a length and if it had been a mile and not 7f, I rather suspect she might have won. You can argue it was a muddling contest but she shapes like this stiff mile on quick ground is what she wants to showcase her talents. She ran on from the back at Epsom last time to finish midfield, but that track didn’t play to her strengths at all, whereas this will.

 

6.15 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Since being upgraded to Listed status in 2004 all 20 winners have been male (just 2 fillies placed from 56 runners) who had run 1-3 times (44 losers had run 4 or more times) and had run in the last 43 days (23 losers had not). They had all finished top six last time out with all 20 horses that finished 7th or worse last time out also finishing unplaced here.

Only one winner had their last run on the all-weather (from the 34 to have tried) when the maiden Flashmans Papers caused a massive shock at 100/1 in 2008. He had though made his debut on turf at Windsor.

Maiden winners aren't that uncommon however with, as well as that 2008 winner, the 1997, 1999, 2002, 2019, 2020 and last year's winner Big Evs all scoring for the first time in the Windsor Castle. It's worth noting that they had all finished either second or third last time out. The last horse to win on debut was the Sir Michael Stoute filly Dazzle who scored as the 7/2 favourite back in 1996 when the race was run as a Class 2 contest.

15 of the last 18 winners had suffered a defeat at least once in their career with all 3 exceptions coming into the race having won their only start. The last 18 runners to have won both their last two starts have been beaten with just two making the frame.

Wesley Ward has won the race twice but all of his other 15 runners have finished unplaced including his last 12 runners (he last won the race in 2014), all of his 10 fillies and 13 of his 14 runners that were 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

Shocks are common in the Windsor Castle with the aforementioned Flashmans Papers at 100/1 and Wesley Ward's Strike The Tiger at 33/1 being the biggest priced winners this century. We've also had two 16/1 winners, three 20/1 winners and a 22/1 winner since 2006.

Horses drawn 12+ have won 10 of the last 14 renewals with three of the four exceptions coming from either stall 1 or 2.

Runners from Sandown's National Stakes have a good record since 2015 (32121400) with both 2017 winner Sound And Silence at 16/1 and 2021 winner Chipotle at 22/1 having competed in that contest. In fact in 2021 the Sandown race provided the 22/1 winner and 4th at 66/1 from just two qualifiers.

Inexplicably the 2nd and 3rd from the 2023 National Stakes disappointed badly in this race last year but I'm going to keep the faith with that trial race and go with a horse that will hopefully be going the other way round i.e. run well here having disappointed badly in this year's National Stakes.

Richard Hannon's HAWAIIAN was a ready winner of a maiden first time up at Newbury despite stumbling at the start. That race couldn't have worked out much better with the runner up winning by four lengths next time, the 3rd finishing second to Epsom Woodcote scorer Teej A on his next start, the 4th winning next time out before running third in a Listed race at York and the 5th came out to run The Actor to a neck in what has turned out to be a very hot Newmarket maiden. No wonder he was sent off a short priced favourite for the National where he was no bigger than 6/5 but ran no race at all and was beaten by the furlong pole. The trainer was happy to blame the soft ground that night and if we can strike a line through that run he could be a very big price given the form of his previous effort.

I'm also going to suggest a small bet on the Kevin Ryan runner END OF STORY who was another to win a maiden that has worked out very well but flopped next time when well supported in the betting. That run came in the Woodcote at Epsom where he led for a long way but didn't seem to see out the 6f and was beaten by the time they entered the final furlong. Back to a more conventional track and over 5f I think he could be worth another chance at a massive price.

SELECTIONS: HAWAIIIAN 1/2pt EW 18/1 / END OF STORY 1/4pt EW 50/1 (4 places)

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And that's half time in our quartet of daily previews. Hopefully we've - and you've - hit the target in the first half but, if not, there are 14 more conundrums to work through on Thursday and Friday. Join us for those!

Good luck.

Matt

Royal Ascot 2024: Day One Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

Where does the time go? Barely a week ago, or so it seems, we were cheering home the winner of the Cheltenham varietal of the Gold Cup and now, actually three months later, the Ascot iteration is upon us. No fences, and no racecourse prefix - it is, simply, the Gold Cup - but that's not until Day 3/Thursday, the cornerstone of five sumptuous afternoons of equine action fit for a King.

There are fewer overseas challengers this season, more's the pity, and some of the races look a little weaker than standard, truth be told; but those are the negatives done with. On the plus side, it's an uber competitive week of racing with a far broader array of trainers and jockeys likely to hit the limelight than was the case in mid-March for that other showcase event. And, in the Coronation Stakes, we have what looks one of the best renewals for many a year if they all, or nearly all, stand their ground. That, again, is for another day.

To Tuesday, Day One, and an overture that comprises a trio of Group 1 contests as well as the Group 2 Coventry Stakes: music to the ears, indeed.

After the success of last year's previews, where a nasty dose of the Covid lurgy necessitated a request for some assistance, I've again called in some crack writers to share the coverage of this year's Royal meeting. Specifically, I've asked six top scribes to share their thoughts on one race each per day Tuesday to Friday, leaving the seventh for me. That made for a lovely blend of styles last year, as well as some cracking winners (headlined by Gavin Priestley's excellent 33/1 shout - freely available for some time after publication - on Bradsell), and it's also an opportunity for a few of the best tipsters around to 'show and tell' their modus operandi.

As I always say when I write these mega-posts in the big meeting weeks, it's the same amount of effort that goes into the research whether the picks win or lose; so please try to keep an eye on each contributor's 'process' - how they present their case - as well as their performance in this tiny four-races-each sample.

If you like what you read, you can check out more of their work at the links provided; but, of course, this is the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot preview, so allow your editor to kick things off in the Queen Anne Stakes...

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

A straight track mile Group 1 for older horses and one that has thrown its share of shocks amidst the shorties in recent years. To wit, in the last six renewals, we've had winners at 1/6 and 2/7, as well as two 33/1 bombs, most recently Triple Time last year. There was also 14/1 Lord Glitters in that list so, in the absence of anything remotely odds-on-looking, maybe we should aim for a bold start to proceedings...

Fourteen are declared, though not Inspiral, one time ante post favourite for the race. Her red, white and blue Cheveley Park Stud silks will instead by worn by Rab Havlin on Audience. The five-year-old gelded son of Iffraaj was last seen making all in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on his first attempt at a mile. Since 2011, Canford Cliffs, Frankel, Ribchester, Palace Pier and Baaeed have all completed the Lockinge-Queen Anne double but none started bigger than 11/8 for the second leg.

Audience is quite lightly raced for a five year old - just 13 starts to date - and his best form is on decent ground which, after a lot of heavy shower chat, looks like being the prevailing terrain for Tuesday. He's a front runner typically, which was how Circus Maximus got it done in 2020 under a masterful Ryan Moore ride; but, as far as I can tell, that's the only front-running winner since at least 2008. It's just very tough to lead all the way on the straight mile in a double-figure field.

One horse who managed to do that was Big Rock, a six-length winner of the QEII Stakes in a field of eleven on British Champions Day last October. The ground there was soft and he was trained by Christopher Head, who had a strike rate of 27% in France in 2023. The ground here is good and the trainer is now Maurizio Guarnieri, who has a strike rate of 7.5% in 2024 (9/119) in France. Big Rock's owner, Yeguada Centurion, under chief decision-maker Leopoldo Fernández Pujals, removed all of their horses from Head late last year, a migration that also includes Blue Rose Cen, entered later in the week.

Neither Big Rock nor Blue Rose Cen has yet come close to matching their form under Head for new handler Guarnieri, and that is a big concern. Big Rock was sixth, 15 lengths behind Audience in the Lockinge, having been sent off an 11/4 shot. It's a leap of faith to think he can reverse placings even allowing for the fact that he fluffed the start somewhat. In any case, a cleaner break would likely have resulted in him contesting the lead with Audience, an act in favour of neither of them in terms of their win prospects.

Facteur Cheval was the closest horse to Big Rock in the QEII, and his sole start since was a short head verdict in the Group 1 Dubai Turf (1m1f, good) at Meydan in March. He held several positions during the race before just getting the best of a duel in the final furlong. As mentioned, his sire Ribchester won this race, and as well as silver here last autumn, he was an unlucky second in the G1 Sussex Stakes last summer. He is a top notcher who handles most underfoot conditions, stays a straight mile well, is tractable in terms of run style, and may have improved from four to five.

Roger Varian saddles the progressive Charyn. Third in last season's St James's Palace Stakes on the round mile at the Royal meeting, he'd started to look exposed by late summer; but this season began with back-to-back scores at Doncaster and Sandown before a runner up slot behind Audience in the Lockinge. Although the form figures look good, however, there has been no breakout in his ratings: he looks a rock solid 115 (or so) horse. Maybe that will be good enough to win this year but there is also a slight niggle about his ability to handle good to firm, should it be that quick on the opening day. He's yet to race on it and, by Dark Angel, might just be better suited to a little ease.

Maljoom was a big sectional eye-catcher in the 2022 St James's Palace Stakes, as I flagged at the time. Alas, he was then not sighted for 15 months before running down the field in the G2 Joel Stakes (1m, good to firm) at Newmarket last September. On his only subsequent run, in the Queen Anne trial race at Ascot seven weeks ago, he was too keen and taken to the front before running out of gas towards the finish. A bigger field with some pace to aim at ought to see him settle better, though that '22 SJP was not a vintage renewal (though nor especially is the '24 QA).

Hayley Turner is almost as adept at riding this straight track as Jamie Spencer, and she executed the waiting tactics to perfection when bringing Docklands with the proverbial withering run to snaffle the Britannia Handicap a year ago. They almost repeated the feat in the valuable Balmoral Handicap last autumn but didn't get the clearest transit and had to settled for third of 20; that off a 10lb higher mark. This season, Docklands has run second in a pair of Listed contests, form which doesn't obviously translate to a podium finish in a Group 1. But we know the track and trip will suit, he's ground agnostic and will be given every chance; he just might not be good enough.

It's really tricky to know what to make of Dolayli. Francis-Henri Graffard's five-year-old has been running mainly on all-weather and over further in recent times and has yet to race on a quicker turf surface than good to soft. In spite of those imponderables, his form is decent: six wins from ten lifetime starts and a length fourth in the G1 Prix Ganay last time (1m1 1/2f, soft). I'd expect Mickael Barzalona to be patient with him and, if you don't believe Big Rock's official rating (I don't), then he's very little to find with the best of the rest. But this will be quite a different examination from those he's sat hitherto.

Poker Face looks relatively exposed but did get to within a length and a quarter of Charyn in a Sandown Group 2 this season, giving the winner three pounds; on that basis alone, a price disparity of 20/1 vs 3/1 might be wrong, though it's more an argument against Charyn's price than for Poker Face's in my book. PF was another far back in the Lockinge though he did win a mile Group 2 at Longchamp last September.

We're into the long grass now, where Brave Emperor was progressing nicely, from a German G3 to an Italian G2 to a valuable Qatari stakes race. The Hong Kong Champions Mile came next, and he was well beaten - eminently forgivable - before a slightly more difficult to excuse tail end finish in the Ganay. He wasn't beaten far there and may not get nine furlongs. Archie Watson is to be noted at the Royal meeting, with five winners to his name already, including three last year; but it's not easy to see this one getting his week off to a flyer.

Third in last year's 2000 Guineas, Royal Scotsman failed to back that effort up in three subsequent Group 1 races in 2023. Dropped to Group 3 level last time, he made all in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom. His run style is normally held up, however, and I expect Jamie Spencer will revert to type - for horse and rider - here. With plenty of Group placed form as a juvenile as well, he's not completely out of the question.

Like Docklands, Witch Hunter was a handicap winner at Royal Ascot 2023, in his case over seven furlongs in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. That man Spencer did the steering on the 50/1 shot then but he's deserted the Richard Hannon-trained five-year-old in favour of Royal Scotsman.

Karl Burke sends Flight Plan, winner of a Leopardstown Group 2 (1m, good) on Irish Champions Weekend. This chap was thumped on seasonal debut in the Lockinge before a slightly more hopeful performance when 3rd in a G3 over an inadequate seven furlongs. Upped to a mile here, he should do better; but he will have to do a good bit better.

And what of Cairo? He was 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas last spring when trained by Aidan O'Brien; but his best efforts since were a neck defeat to Brave Emperor in Doha and, since changing to the Alice Haynes yard, 2nd in a Listed race over a mile and a furlong at Leopardstown last time. He was unlucky in running there, without suggesting it would have changed the result, and he could conceivably travel well through the first half of the race. He has a good bit to find on the figures though.

And rounding out the field is Hi Royal. My first instinct was to strike a line through this fella's chance, but then a couple of things caught my eye. Firstly, he's a four-year-old and remains a colt where plenty in this field have been de-tackled. Second, and more interesting, is the record of his trainer Kevin Ryan with older horses at Royal Ascot. Since 2013, he's sent out 21 four- or five-year-olds that went off 33/1 or shorter. Six of them won and another four were placed. Of course, one of that sextet was 33/1 Queen Anne winner Triple Time twelve months ago.

 

 

As I write, Hi Royal is 66/1 so wouldn't fit the 'system' criteria, but he has a run two back that gives him a bit of a form squeak in any case. That was in the G3 Earl of Sefton over nine furlongs at Newmarket, where he was just run down late on. The drop back to a mile in the Lockinge last time saw him get closer than a number of better fancied rivals here having been agitated in the stalls and possibly losing his race there. He's ridden here, as he was at Newbury, by a certain Ryan Moore and I'm inclined to think he's worthy of a tiny speculative wager.

Queen Anne Summary

The opening race of Royal Ascot 2024, the Queen Anne Stakes, is a real headscratcher. The best form line by a way is Big Rock's G1 course and distance score last October; but the horse has run only once since - very moderately - and that on his debut for a new stable that generally fires at a much lower level, in terms of both quality and strike rate, than his previous conditioners. Taking Big Rock out of the equation, Audience recorded a breakout effort last time in the G1 Lockinge on his first try at a mile. It's possible he could continue to progress at the new trip but his run style - going from the front - is similar to Big Rock's and also Brave Emperor's on a track and at a trip that rarely favours contested early speed.

 

 

The solid one is Facteur Cheval, who comes here off the back of a Group 1 win, albeit over nine furlongs and in Dubai; but he can back that up with placed efforts in four straight European G1's beforehand. Therein lies his problem: he does tend to find one too good and, at a price unforgiving of such a trait, he may again frustrate win players. Meanwhile, Charyn has hit a winning groove and some consistency in his performance ratings: they're unsexy but might be good enough. I just don't like his price.

Bits and pieces of place cases can be made for almost all of the rest and it might be a race to bet a couple of rags at massive prices. Better that than have a good win bet on a fancied horse that finishes second in my book. As I say, you can almost pays your money and takes your chance, so it is in that "I'm sorry, I haven't a clue" context that I offer most tentatively 20/1 Royal Scotsman who comes here off a win and was 3rd in the 2022 Coventry; and 66/1 Hi Royal whose price demands a nicker each way - four places at least!

It will at least get ever so slightly easier on occasion after this...

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3.05 Coventry Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

First run in 1890 and named after the 9th Earl of Coventry, the Coventry Stakes is arguably the premier juvenile race at Royal Ascot. Winners of this race often go on to compete in higher-profile events later in their careers. Notable recent winners include Caravaggio (2016), Buratino (2015), War Command (2013), Dawn Approach (2012) and Canford Cliffs (2009).

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Previous Runs: All five winners and 14 of the 15 placed horses had run once or twice before the Coventry.

Trainer: Archie Watson has had 1 winner from 5 runners with 3 places, yielding an each-way return of +£8.80.

Draw Bias: Recent winners were drawn in stalls 3, 6, 17, 2, and 6, suggesting a slight preference for low to mid draws.

Top Contenders:

Camille Pissarro (Aidan O’Brien) - Impressive debut winner at Navan; narrowly beaten (a head) in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time. Strong credentials for top connections and likely to handle quicker ground well.

Cowardofthecounty (Joseph O’Brien) - Battled well to win on debut on soft to heavy ground at the Curragh. Needs to prove himself on a quicker surface but is open to plenty of improvement if he does.

Midnight Strike (Joseph O’Brien) - Stylish winner on debut; third in the Marble Hill (half a length behind Camille Pissarro) last time. Should be competitive if adapting to quicker ground conditions. Oisin Murphy is booked for the ride. Stablemate of Cowardofthecounty.

Andesite (Karl Burke) - Overcame greenness to win a York novice on debut last month, with the form holding up well. Ascot’s stiffer track could play to his strengths, and he’s the sole Karl Burke runner in the line-up.

Catalyse (Richard Fahey) - Easy debut winner at Hamilton 16 days ago. Steps up in class but looks open to significant improvement and is the pick of retained jockey James Doyle.

Electrolyte (Archie Watson) - Comfortable winner at Ayr on debut, handles good ground well. Solid contender despite retained jockey James Doyle opting for Catalyse. A good each-way contender for a trainer with an excellent race record.

Arran (Paul & Oliver Cole) - Front-running winner at Newmarket on debut in April; form boosted by subsequent winners. Has potential for further improvement and is another with each-way claims.

Coventry Stakes Verdict

The Coventry Stakes is always an exciting race, and this year is no exception. Among the favourites, I prefer Cowardofthecounty over Camille Pissarro. However, considering the current odds, I see the value in backing Andesite and Electrolyte.

Betting Advice: Initially, I considered Electrolyte for an each-way bet, but I've decided to keep Andesite onside as well.

Electrolyte: £3 each way at 28/1 (William Hill & bet365, paying 5 places)
Andesite: £11 win at 9/1

I wouldn't recommend taking lower odds than these. However, if Electrolyte places, a small profit is gained.

 

 

3.45 King Charles III Stakes (5f, Group 1, 3yo+)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

We have had 11 winners from the 27 renewals of the Kings Stand, now King Charles III Stakes, since 1997 that have been trained outside of the UK and Ireland (France, America, Hong Kong, Spain and Australia) making it the most 'international' race run at Royal Ascot in the last quarter of a century. This year Ascot has attracted a single overseas runner, Asfoora from Australia. Ireland's contribution in that time period consists only of dual winner Sole Power who is the one Irish-trained horse to win the Kings Charles III from the 33 runners to have tried; but I'm banking on that all changing this year with one of my best bets of the meeting.

VALIANT FORCE did me and my subscribers a big favour at this meeting last year when winning the Norfolk at an enormous price (150/1) and I think he can follow Bradsell's lead from this race 12 months ago and come back to win the Kings Charles III as a 3yo having won a 2yo race at the Royal meeting the previous year. He's been on my radar for this ever since that win last year and this 5f speedster has done little to change my mind in four starts since. He flopped on his run prior to the Norfolk last season when tried over 6f and found his stamina stretched again over that trip when trying the Group 1 Prix Morny on his first run after the Norfolk when only 5th to Vandeek.

We didn't see him again until the Breeders Cup when, back down to 5f from a wide draw, he flew home to get beat just 1/2 length by Big Evs, closing on the winner all the way to the line. He stayed in America after that run to join Jorge Delgado where he ran 2nd over 5f on turf and 4th over 6f on dirt earlier this year. He's recently re-joined Adrian Murray and makes his first start this side of the pond since the Morny run and first run for 94 days. There have been plenty of winners of this race coming off a break including the 3yo Dominica in 2002 who won on seasonal debut.

In one of the poorest renewals of the King Charles III for many a year (there's been at least one runner in the field rated 115+ since at least 2007), with just 3lb splitting the top eight runners on official ratings, he won't be lacking in class and has nothing to find with the favourite on that run at the Breeders' Cup last year, where he travelled noticeably further than the winner.

With the ground in his favour, the stable in form and a good draw (five of the last seven winners were drawn 10+) I think he has an excellent chance of repeating his course and distance win from last year.

SELECTION: VALIANT FORCE (EW) at 16/1 general / 12/1 6 places Skybet

 

4.25 St James's Palace Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

To race four we hurtle and hopefully by this stage my esteemed blogging colleagues have got us off to a flyer. This preview is rather unoriginal in that I cannot see past the favourite, Notable Speech, who at 11/8 still looks good value to my eyes, but as I type that price is vanishing.

Before talking about the race in more depth, allow me to share some content that may be useful more generally, whatever the result of this race.

In what follows, I've had a look at all Royal Ascot Group 1s, for 3YOs only.

Since 2010, those horses officially rated 121+ (Notable Speech 122, next in 118) are 6 winners from 12 runners, 8 have placed (including all winners), for a Betfair SP Actual vs Expected of 1.17. Remarkably, they’re still performing above market expectations.

If we go back to the start of 2008 and look at Royal Ascot / Group 1s / 3YO Only / Top Rated on Official Ratings…
54 bets / 20 wins / 31 places (incl. wins) / 37% sr / +22 SP / +32 BFSP / BFAE 1.37

Not bad. Looking at those sent off 10/1 or shorter SP improves those figures to 20/47, 31p, +39 BFSP, and at the last three meetings, 6/9,8p, +16 BFSP.

Within those criteria, if we just focus on those that finished in the first two on their last start…
32 bets / 16 wins / 22 places / 50% sr / +27 SP / +34 BFSP / BFAE 1.47

This is a decent little micro angle to keep onside at the Royal meeting moving forwards, with this race, the Commonwealth Cup and the Coronation Stakes the 3YO races in focus.

Moving back to the St James's Palace Stakes...

Notable Speech – of course he hits this micro angle, and indeed horses in this race who were sent off favourite having been last seen winning the 2000 Guineas, are 2/3, 3p. Charlie Appleby has saddled two SJP favourites: Pinatubo, who finished 2nd, and last year’s winner Coroebus, sent off 10/11 fav. Notable Speech may end up such a price.

At the previous five Royal Ascot meetings it has paid to keep Charlie Appleby and William Buick close, especially with horses aged three and who won their last start… 4/12,7p, +11 BFSP.

The yard enters this week in blistering form: in the last 14 days, 4/10, 6p, 79% of rivals beaten, against a 365 day average of 66%. It’s not a bad time for the string the come alive!

The horse… it was hard not to be impressed by Notable Speech at Newmarket on his turf debut. He’d previously had three races on the AW, easily winning a conditions stakes at Kempton on his penultimate start, a performance which had the clock watchers and sectional timing maestros purring. In the 2000 Guineas, he settled very well, looked straightforward, and had to get himself into the race on the far side, on the wing, moving up effortlessly and putting the race to bed in a matter of strides. I suspect were he following Rosallion through that race he’d have been even more impressive. It was visually stunning and of course he’s still open to stacks of improvement.

He knows how to race around a bend from his Kempton sorties and has tactical speed – that could be a big advantage here in a race which doesn’t look likely to be strongly run, on paper anyway! Buick may not want to be as far back as he was at Newmarket, but he appears the sort who can race wherever his jockey wishes to place him, given his change of gears and the ease with which he moves through a race. This will be the fastest ground Notable Speech has faced, which is an unknown, but of course he may relish it. That is the only chink I think those opposing him may cling to.

However I’m struggling to find a negative or a substantive reason from which to oppose him. He’s the best horse on all the figures and brings the best piece of recent form to the table, Rosallion subsequently winning the Irish 2000 Guineas, having got closest to Notable Speech at Newmarket. Richard Hannon’s charge is the best he’s trained apparently, but I can’t see why he overturns the form here, assuming Notable Speech runs his race, of course. He has his own questions if this is a slow pace, as he can take a firm grip and will need to settle. Maybe he will be chasing the favourite home again, and the forecast, or reverse forecast could be a way to play, if wishing to get involved for interest.

Aidan O’Brien always has the capacity to crash the party, his Henry Longfellow currently third in the market as I type. The fast ground is an unknown to him, and there's a chance he may have preferred rain. With his trainer expecting him to leave behind his poor effort in French 2000 Guineas on 12th May, maybe the Ballydoyle team will have transformed Henry as they did City of Troy! On pedigree he should improve plenty for this 1m trip, but he needs to. I would like to think he’ll be battling it out for 2nd place with Rosallion, but I suppose this game is rarely that straightforward! We shall see.

I’m firmly in the NOTABLE SPEECH camp, which may be very unoriginal but I’m minded not to be overly creative for the sake of it. I think the latter two mentioned need the favourite to underperform, and the others require all the top three to have an off day, or to themselves step forward considerably on the evidence to date. The favourite could make 11/8 look value, if you don’t mind a short price. In any case, do note some of the stats above, as they’re sure to help you land on a few winners moving forward, whether during the rest of this week, or next year!

 

'Ever fancied owning a share in a racehorse? Josh now has 11 horses in training and over 170 shareholders.

Keep informed by joining his Racing To Profit Syndicate email list for free, HERE>>>

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If you're betting placepots or jackpots (or quadpots or Scoop6) at Royal Ascot, you're much better off using Tix - it's free so check it out today!

 

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5.05 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap)

Preview by our own David Massey 

It would be easy enough, given that Ahorsewithnoname won this for Nicky Henderson last year, to think that this is a race dominated by jumps trainers; but that’s not really the case given Andrew Balding, Alan King and Ian Williams, twice, were also winners of this in the past five years. Granted, King and Williams are dual-purpose, but you get the drift.

The Irish trainers dominate the market this year, with Mullins, Elliott, O’Leary (sister of the suspended Tony Martin) and Jarlath Fahey training the first four in the betting; and, whilst the unexposed My Lyka is going to garner the majority of interest on what is only his second start for Willie, of that front four, if you had to have your house on one to run his race, it would have to be Pied Piper.

Far better known as a top-quality hurdler, he’s still a useful tool on the Flat and ran a cracker to be second to The Shunter in the Cesarewitch last autumn, staying on all the way to the line. He was trying to give the winner 2lb there, and it was merely another excellent effort in a raft of competitive handicaps, Flat and hurdles, that he regularly contends.

It’s worth remembering his sixth place finish in this two years ago when he didn’t get the best of runs: whilst by no means an unlucky loser, he’d surely have gone closer with a clear passage. He was trying to give winner, future Group 1 horse Coltrane, 3lb taking into account Callum Hutchinson’s 5lb on the day, hardly a shoddy effort.

Those looking for something at a bigger price might consider the evergreen Tritonic and another of the Irish contingent, Nusret.

Tritonic was third in this last year and is 5lb lower this time around. Two runs this season have been no more than satisfactory, although the sprint for the line at Southwell last time after they crawled through the race would definitely not have suited him. The question is whether he still wants to do it at the age of seven, and it’s a fair question to ask; but he’s got his conditions today, and maybe the reapplication of cheekpieces might just buck his ideas up. He has a decent draw to work from and could keep drifting in the market, as he’s not a sexy selection at all, so don’t worry if you don’t get BOG from your bookie - back it at Betfair SP.

Nusret is a useful dual-purpose sort for Joseph O’Brien and ran respectably when fifth at the Punchestown Festival, sticking well to his task in a Listed Handicap Hurdle. It’s worth remembering how very easily he won the Race To The Ebor Handicap at the Curragh last June; despite having to wait, and wait again, for the gap to appear, once it did he quickened through it and won a very comfortable half a length, looking like there was a lot left in the tank. He ran to a similar level at Leopardstown next time, the slight drop back in trip counting against him, and whilst this extreme stamina test is something new to him, he’s worth a crack at it. A mark of 91 is very workable if he stays.

 

5.40 Wolferton Stakes (1m2f, Listed, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

The complicating factor for me in the Wolferton is the presence of my punting bête noire, Checkandchallenge, in the field. The son of Fast Company was last behind Mqse de Sevigne in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan last time, but was beaten less than 3¾ lengths in a tactical race, and the sixth that day, Marhaba Ya Sanafi, won a Group 3 at the weekend. William Knight has never had his horses in better form, and I can feel the inexorable cliff-horse pull. Must. Resist. Temptation.

Phew, that was close.

The draw is always worth a look at Ascot, irrespective of trip, and while this is a relatively new race at the meeting, there have been enough runnings to make a judgment. Despite the layout of the track suggesting low numbers should have the best of it, that hasn’t been the case, and the only horse to win from one of the two lowest stalls in the race’s history was 13/8 favourite Rainbow Peak in 2010 (he was drawn 16 of 16 back in 2010 before the numbering method changed). High numbers, especially those held up, can also struggle, though three winners in the last decade have come from stall 12.

In terms of pace, no horse has made all since 2006 when the race was run as a handicap, but even hold up horses can find trouble on the run to the bend with three getting the in-running comment “badly hampered” last year. Ideally, you want a horse with the relative early speed to take a handy position behind the leaders and be able to make a move early in the straight.

With the ability to cope with firmish ground (the ground will be quickening throughout the day) a prerequisite, it’s easy to make a shortlist and, being brutal about it, I’m down to two horses fairly quickly. Israr stands out in terms of recent form and race conditions, while he’s got the ideal run style to give him every chance. As such he’s a deserving favourite, and I’d not put anyone off his chances.

The other on my short list is Astro King who can be forgiven a rare below-par effort over 1½m at Newmarket last time. Twice placed at this meeting for Sir Michael Stoute, he’s an improved performer for current connections and ran a cracker to be second in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes on his return to the UK in April.

Both of Astro King’s wins for Daniel & Clare Kubler have come on good to firm ground and he is better at 1m1f/1¼m than a mile. His stall is the same one that Contributer, Addeybb and Royal Champion have scored from, and he should get a nice tow into the race from habitual front-runner Cemhaan, making him look a decent each-way bet at around 14/1.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Astro King @ 14/1 (general – 4 places)

 

6.15 Copper Horse Stakes (1m6f, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is still a relatively new race with only four previous renewals and, with this course and distance generally only seeing small field races during the rest of the year, draw and pace data remains relatively sparse. What data we do have (Geegeez Gold racecards, PACE tab) suggests that there is a slight advantage being drawn lower and you probably don’t want to be miles off the pace.

 

 

There doesn’t look to be much pace contention with A Piece Of Heaven probably the sole forward-going type. That factor, and the tendency for prominent racers to be advantaged, suggests anything that is held up in the rear here is going to need to be extremely well-handicapped, and lucky in the run, to win.

 

 

It’s difficult to make strong conclusions from the limited draw data but when sorting the dividual draw data table (Geegeez Gold racecards, DRAW tab) by PRB3 it seems telling that the top performing berths are the nine single-figure stalls and the seven worst performers are the double-figure stalls.

Stall 14 has previously won so it’s not as though we can just put a line through the higher draws, but we can probably slightly mark up those who have a lower stall.

On to the runners…

I’m always a little frustrated by these staying handicaps at Ascot as Willie Mullins tends to farm them with horses that are almost impossible to back. That said, I’m looking to bet him in one later in the week!

Generally they have little to no flat form in this country and often have something to prove on fast ground and over the trip they are running. This year’s favourite is slightly different, though. Belloccio is pretty exposed, having run fifteen times on the flat in the UK for David Menuisier. If you were building a profile for the horse from those runs you’d say he was a top handicapper around Kempton (Listed winner) but not a turf horse at all having beaten only ten rivals home in his last eight flat turf runs. If he was still with his old trainer he’d likely be an outsider for this.

So the big question is how magical is Willie Mullins at transforming horses? Belloccio won a maiden hurdle on his only start for his new trainer with a winning margin of nine lengths so suddenly things look more positive in regards to running on turf but I still have strong reservations. The runner up from that race was beaten three times as far next time out at the same level and the third was pulled up on his next start. Despite the impressive winning margin, a poor maiden hurdle score doesn’t necessarily prove he’s thrown in off a mark of 100 here.

He’s also seemingly been kept away from fast ground throughout his career which is another reason he’s opposable. Mullins had the one-two in this last year but if he ever had a runner at Royal Ascot that is opposable it's this horse. I’m not saying he can’t win, but I am saying he’s a terrible price.

Fox Journey is a horse I followed last year and his last run over this trip was an excellent 3rd in the Melrose Handicap behind Middle Earth. He seemingly took his form to a whole new level on his first start this season when winning a 12f handicap by 11 lengths, and the handicapper could have been a lot harsher than giving him only a 9lb rise for that. I have suspicions about the strength of that form so I’m not sure how well handicapped he is now but he at least seems to have conditions in his favour so could go well.

A Piece Of Heaven is another who won easily last time out and he showed plenty of versatility dropping back to 12f, having previously won over two miles. This looks a much tougher race than the last two he’s won and he’s gone up a total of 16lbs for those so I wouldn’t be especially quick to back him from stall 18, even if he could get across and secure an easy lead.

The one I like the most is Bague D’Or, but by the time you read this he’s probably going to have been balloted out of the race as he’s the first reserve at the time of writing. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed that there’s a non-runner before the cut off because he remains unexposed at this trip with form figures of 1121 on good or better ground, including a course and distance success. His only defeat at 14f on decent ground came at the hands of Trawlerman, who went on to win the Ebor on his next start and subsequently rate 21lbs higher (and is a warm fancy in the Gold Cup market).

Bague D’Or won at Newmarket on his first start this season, in pretty comfortable fashion, and he can race mid-division to prominent so should be well placed in this from stall 9 if he does get a run. On the assumption he doesn’t get a run, we need a backup selection and conveniently there is a runner in this who was just two lengths behind Bague D’Or last time at Newmarket and is now 4lbs better off. That runner is Intinso and if the first time tongue tie can help with his habitual keenness he could have a massive chance here.

If both Bague D’Or and Intinso get to run I still prefer the former (they are both around the 12/1 to 14/1 mark) but you could argue that Intinso has a great chance of reversing Newmarket form. Intinso was probably unsuited by leading that day so can potentially be marked up a little and he’s also more lightly raced than Bague D’Or so could improve further, especially if settling better.

Intinso has run three decent races this year, winning easily at Wolverhampton before finding a tactical race over 11f at Kempton a bit too much, but he still stayed on into 3rd, doing best of those not up with the pace throughout. Then last time out he probably could have done with a lead when beaten by Bague D’Or.

He’s drawn in stall 2 and if he can settle on the rail, just behind A Piece Of Heaven, he may be ideally positioned turning for home and could be seen to very best effect. It’s also worth noting that Amtiyaz, who won this for the same connections in 2021, is a half-brother to Intinso.

So, to summarise, I’m pretty keen on an each way wager on 14/1 BAGUE D’OR if he does get a run (stakes returned if balloted out); but, in the likelihood he doesn’t get in, I’ll be having a small bet on 14/1 INTINSO instead at the same sort of price.

 

Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

 

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And that's how our team sees the opening day of the 2024 Royal Ascot meeting. Lots of prices to go at and perfectly possible to have a complete wipeout, but one winner will likely cover the losers. Be lucky, and keep some powder dry for the battles to come!

Matt

Royal Ascot 2023: Day 4 (Friday) Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

Day four, Friday, at Royal Ascot is the last of our previews this week, and I very much hope you've enjoyed the mix of in-house and guest writers who have covered the action so comprehensively. Do touch on some of the links within the post if you like the way our guests present things - they'll appreciate it.

Right, let's get down to business. Seven more head-scratchers, starting with a proper metaphorical case of nits...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo fillies)

The Albany, as races come to preview, is always a race full of fun and games, mainly due to the lack of form on offer. Most of the runners have either never run, or only run once and won that race!

However, we do have a favourite emerging in Carla’s Way, who ran a blisteringly above par time at Doncaster at the start of the month for Simon and Ed Crisford. The horse is drawn well in stall 2, so she should be able to get to the rail and be prominent from the outset, which is of real value in a race of this kind (best case is to be drawn either low or high, and race prominently).

At the other end of the draw is Soprano for George Boughey and William Buick, out of stall 16 and another who is likely to be close to the pace. Boughey is notably operating at a 30% strike-rate with last time out winners, and it would not surprise me at all to see this one challenge for favouritism on the day. It should be noted that 17 of the last 19 winners were drawn in stall 10 or higher, but the two exceptions were in the last two years! They came from boxes 2 and 4, close to the rail.

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service
A recent run is also a good sign with all bar two winners (going back to the race's inception in 2002) having run within 35 days. Neither Soprano nor Do It With Style fit this stat.

Porta Fortuna looks attractive on paper, the draw from 8 is a bit of a put off as she will race in the middle of the pack, which can be a bit of a graveyard for wins; but the run at Naas was impressive enough and the booking of Frankie Dettori by Donnacha O’Brien cannot be ignored.

Ryan Moore rides Matrika, who will come out of stall 1, and therefore demands closer inspection. Another horse who was successful over Irish Guineas weekend at the Curragh, she ran above par that day and the money has certainly started to come.

Ascot is quite a stiff six furlongs, hence it is interesting to see that 11 of the last 12 winners had run over 6f at some point before their Albany win.

Shortlist:
Carla’s Way 7/2
Porta Fortuna 7/1
Matrika 8/1

 

3.05 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

The newest Group 1 at Royal Ascot and one of the best races of the week: a stallion maker, in fact. The likes of Muhaarar and Caravaggio have already sired Group 1 winners from the three colts with three-year-old crops, and it may be that Advertise joins them before the end of the campaign. So who among this year's cohort might join this illustrious band?

In the absence of Cold Case, a bakers' dozen go to post, headed by last season's champion juvenile Little Big Bear. He patently failed to stay in the 2000 Guineas (though his performance suggested it was more than just stamina that let him down that day), but bounced back over a sprint trip in the G2 Sandy Lane at Haydock last time. While that was a comfortable score, the horse in second there, Shouldvebeenaring, is a 25/1 shot here. You can make the case that the runner up should be shorter in the betting, or that the winner should not be even money here; but it's fairly tricky to argue the market disparity is about right.

Little Big Bear was still about five pounds below his two-year-old peak effort at Haydock and, again, you can argue that he's sitting on a season best or that he's not quite trained on as the horse he was. I don't really have a view on that except that he's evens, which is a price I'd need to be happy about all such questions. I am not.

Sakheer, a son of Zoffany, is second choice, and he too flopped in the 2000 Guineas, though less emphatically than LBB. His Mill Reef juvenile win was impressive, over this three-quarter mile trip, and he can't be discounted for all that we have only the soft ground mile run in 2023 on which to conjecture.

That is the case with Lezoo, too, after she finished eighth in the 1000 Guineas. Her only defeat in five races last year was a half length second to Mawj, subsequently 1000 Guineas winner, and her four wins include one over course and distance and one in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She looks an out and out six-furlong filly, and the fairer sex have won this twice in the eight renewals and hit the frame five more times, at a slightly better rate than the boys. Lezoo is berthed in the highest box so will need to break alertly and straight

Julie Camacho would be relatively unfashionable in the context of Royal Ascot Group 1's, but she knows how to train a sprinter as demonstrated by her expert handling of Judicial. Shaquille looks another in that mould, a prolific scorer in minor Pattern company - including an easy two length Listed score last time - fully deserving of a tilt at the big time. He's one of the front end pace angles, too, and if getting loose in the lead could take some pegging back.

Noble Style was three lengths behind Shaquille last time and has a bit to prove on his two '23 runs. In fairness, he was far from disgraced in the 2000 Guineas but that was a clunk the last day when odds on; first time cheekpieces might elicit a bit more verve: trainer Charlie Appleby has an astonishing - even for him - 40% hit rate when deploying the sheepskins (14/35, +31.04 at SP).

This is a race that has yet to be won by a horse priced bigger than 12/1, and it's very difficult to see that fact not surviving at least one more year.

On balance, Little Big Bear is comfortably the most likely winner but there remain unanswered questions for a horse trading at levels. I may be missing something with Sakheer because I cannot see how he's less than half the price of Lezoo (who is drifting as I write) - the filly's juvenile form is better than the colt's, and their Classic runs were virtual carbon copies of each other's.

It is possible that one or both hasn't trained on, market vibes suggesting Lezoo is the more likely to fall into those nettles. But I'm going to chance her, each way: on form, she's closest to the jolly and she's a comfortable each way price at 9/1, with books paying four places. And I very much respect the 'cheeky Charlie' angle for Noble Style, who is worth a small win single at double figure odds.

 

3.40 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is probably my favourite betting race of the meeting, partly because the market rarely seems to consider the draw bias. Logic would dictate that a lower draw would be better around a bend like this but these big field handicaps are very rough and it seems getting a clear run down the outside is far more important than saving ground by going the shortest route. The PRB3 graph below shows just how crucial the draw can be here.



It’s also worth noting that prominent racers tend to do particularly well, presumably because there is so much trouble in running in these races, that being out of the way of the scrimmaging is a massive advantage.



The above image shows draw and pace bias in combination over this course and distance. The eyecatching overperformance comes from prominent/mid division racers from those drawn middle/high but it also shows the only run style you want to back from a low draw is prominent.

There doesn’t seem to be a great amount of pace on here and the pace seems to be dominated by Godolphin runners so you’d assume those horses won’t cut each others’ throats and harm their respective chances. That might put extra onus on the prominent racers in this.

With that in mind the one who sticks out like a sore thumb is the second favourite, Teumessias Fox. He ran well twice here last year and since being gelded he’s won both his races easily, tracking the pace and cruising clear on both occasions. The handicapper has had his say with a total rise of 16lbs following his last two wins.

He’s earned those rises given how impressive he’s been but there is very little substance to his recent scores, which does concern me. I’m a big fan of ‘hot form’ and those two races look to me like cold form. If his winning distances had been smaller I’d be very much against him; but it’s not his fault they’ve been poor races, and he’s won them both so easily it’s impossible to tell where his ceiling is. The main thing in his favour is he seems to be the perfect horse for this race tactically but is he still adequately handicapped?

Likely to be slightly more patiently ridden, but still within that hot zone of being drawn middle to wide and not ridden too patiently, is the early favourite for this, Al Nafir. Whereas Teumessias Fox’s form is a bit ropey, you can’t really get more solid than Al Nafir’s Old Rowley Cup win. He went up 10lbs for winning that race but the runner up is now 10lbs higher as well, plus the 3rd, 5th, 6th, 9th and 13th all won shortly after.

His overall profile isn’t as sexy as some others, he’s tasted defeat plenty of times, but he seems to have a very specific need for this trip and faster ground and the only time he had that was last season when winning one of the hottest handicaps of the season. This will be his seasonal debut which is a slight concern but Charlie Appleby has had many horses ready first time out this season, for instance King Of Conquest won the Suffolk Stakes off a similar absence in May and it’s likely this has been Al Nafir’s target for some time.

Well fancied 4yos have dominated this race in the past decade so that pair look the most likely winners but I’m reluctant to back Al Nafir at the price because of the absence and I can’t back Teumessias Fox because the races he’s been winning haven’t been strong enough for my liking. With so much else in his favour, I might feel very annoyed if Teumessias Fox is well placed and scoots clear off a no more than even gallop whilst everything else in behind meets trouble in running but so be it.

For various reasons I’m against the majority of the field (Nagano reluctantly because of his absence) but one at a big price I want to have on my side is HMS President. He’s run well in four races here previously without winning and he won a really hot contest last time out at Newmarket. The 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 11th have all come out and won and several that ran well are yet to run again so that race could look even hotter within the next few months. He’s only up 3lbs for that which seems very kind. That race was over a couple of furlongs further, on easier ground, but HMS President is equally effective in these conditions and even ran well here on fast ground over 10f last season so there are no concerns about his speed.


HMS President did win last time out but he’s seemed to shirk it in a finish previously, a trait that has seen him finish 2nd in nine of his 33 runs. I’m happy to back him each way at 25/1 with a few bookies at the time of writing, but I also acknowledge the aforementioned pair are more likely winners and could easily relegate him to 2nd if he does indeed run well. So as well as that each way single I’ll be looking to back both Al Nafir and Teumessias Fox in straight forecasts with HMS President finishing 2nd, just as consolation in case he again finds less than expected in a finish. 

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4.20 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Group 1 Coronation Stakes run over a mile is one of Europe’s premier races for three-year-old fillies. First run in 1840 its been won by some great fillies in recent years including Attraction, Russian Rhythm, Sky Lantern, Winter and Alpha Centauri. The race often brings together the winners of Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas with the French and Irish versions and can be a defining moment in a filly's career.

Just seven have been declared for this year’s race. Sadly, that septet doesn't include 1000 Guineas winner Mawj who misses the race due to coughing. That means we won’t see the much anticipated rematch between Mawj and Tahiyra.

Tahiyra was runner-up at Newmarket and went one place better when running out a decisive winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh. With no Mawj in the line-up, Dermot Weld's entry is likely to go off a very short-priced favourite. She’s got the change of gear that stamps her a high class filly and it would be great to see her put in a performance that shows her to be the best Classic female miler in Europe. Despite being a big fan of Tahiyra, on quick ground I think she could be vulnerable. However, which if any of her six rivals can take advantage?

The reliable Meditate finished runner-up to Tahiyra in the Irish 1000 Guineas as she did in last year’s Moyglare Stakes. Strictly on the formbook she can’t beat the favourite but quick ground does give her a chance of doing so.

Comhra seemingly put in a much improved effort when 1½ lengths 3rd of 10 in Irish 1000 Guineas. The application of the first time cheekpieces probably played their part in that good performance and if they continue to have the desired effect there’s no reason why she won’t be in the shake up.

Sounds Of Heaven improved plenty on her juvenile form when winning a York Listed race last month. She had one of today’s rivals, Queen For You, a short head back in second that day and I think she can confirm placings with that filly. The daughter of Kingman seemingly appreciated the quick ground at York so underfoot conditions should pose no terrors for her. I think she’s an exciting prospect who’s open to plenty of improvement and could be the one to take advantage should the firmer turf prove to be the undoing of the favourite.

Verdict: Tahiyra is the one they all must beat, and she may be good enough to get away with quick ground on this occasion. At the prices, though, I have to take her on. The obvious one is the consistent Meditate who will love the ground and should give her running. If there were three places available, I would be interested in Comhra each way. However, there aren’t, so I’m happy to take a chance on the improving Sounds Of Heaven who can give her trainer Jessica Harrington a third success in the race since 2018.

Suggestion: Sounds Of Heaven – 12/1 general

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

 

5.00 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

It’s highly unlikely lightning will strike twice for me this week in fillies only handicaps but in I dive into what looks another challenging contest, this one for 3YOs only. Yet again I’ll be using my own trends and trainer pointers to help me out.

The trainers…

As this is a race for fillies only, it’s worth recapping some of my musings from Day 2, which did help me land on Villanova Queen, having unearthed Jessica Harrington’s fine record with the girls at this meeting. She’s now 4/14,6p with Royal Ascot Fillies and runs Foniska in this contest. She couldn’t, could she?

As per my preview on Day 2, John/Thady Gosden and Simon/Ed Crisford all have decent records with their fillies and are represented here also with four runners between them. As do Roger/Harry Charlton, they have a reserve here, so require a couple to withdraw in order to get a run. Roger Varian has a few runners also, and he operates at a greater than 15% win SR with his fillies.

Looking more closely in this race and trainers’ records with 3YO Fillies, the majority have a solid enough record, all bar four trainers with a greater than 10% win SR with such types. Roger Varian, William Haggas, John Gosden, Charlie Appleby all have between 17% and 19.5% win SR with their 3YO fillies and could be a group to focus on more generally with such types, and maybe in this race. I’d advise against backing them all though as you’d quickly burn through your betting bank.

One other trainer I’ll flag is Owen Burrows… it could be worth noting that at Ascot (all meetings), in handicaps, straight course only, he’s now 15 bets / 4 wins / 6p / 26% wsr / +10 Betfair SP. With those sent off 10/1 or shorter, 4/10, 6p. He runs Embrace in this, who ran in the 1000 Guineas when last seen. The yard are flying, 3/7, 5p in last 14 days, 78% rivals beaten. This filly also makes handicap debut, and Burrows is 5/19, 8p +3 SP with such types in the last 2 years, another stat worth noting. He operates at a 26% win SR with all his handicappers, which is a bit mad really, he knows the time of day and is worth keeping onside more generally.

Whatever my pokes do in this race, hopefully some those stats are of use moving forwards.

Those yards represented who look in particularly fine fettle include…Charlie Appleby, Aidan O’Brien, Ed Dunlop, Jessie Harrington, Owen Burrows and John/Thady Gosden.

Turning our attention to the ‘trainer race records’ – those trainers to have won the race previously in the last 15 renewals, represented this year…

  • Coppice / Marksman Queen / Bridestones (John/Thady Gosden)
  • Clounmacon (Johnny Murtagh)
  • Magical Sunset / Rich (Richard Hannon)

As always, those runners are worth a closer look.

 

The trends…

The trends for this are not as ‘strong’ as some of the other races this week, but a profile of having placed at least once in the last two starts, having placed once or twice this season and having had 2+ runs this season would have found 12 of the previous 15 winners (12/131 qualifiers, 33 places, just +12 Betfair SP) although this profile was 0/13 last year… however, if it bounces back, we’d be looking at a long list of eight in which we could focus…

Coppice, Jackie Oh, Marksman Queen, Choisya, Clounmacon, Orchid Bloom, Novus, Balalaika

 

Winning on seasonal return isn’t impossible in this, Roger Varian’s Cell Sa Beela the only one trying to do so this year.

William Haggas (0/15, 2p) and Aidan O’Brien (0/9, 2p) haven’t hit the board in this race in the period, which could pose a question for trends qualifiers Jackie Oh and Orchid Bloom, although given the yards, maybe just a matter of time.

 

To the horses…

To my eyes this race is towards the ‘nearly impossible’ end of the Royal Ascot puzzle scale and I’ve banked on my trends helping me out. Unexposed 3YO fillies, most in form, some having been highly tried, others more battle hardened in handicaps. Some of these will relish a strong pace and take big steps forward. The ground could also be plenty fast enough, which is an unknown for a fair few.

I will just mention the pace/race set up… almost all the sustained pace looks to be drawn middle to high, with Mrs Harrington’s Foniska the only pace setter low – she could get free on the front end, dropped in trip, with fast ground an unknown and is no forlorn hope to make all.

But, those drawn in the lower third or so could have their work cut out, unless there’s a track bias and low just rides quicker come Friday. I’ve ended up with three horses drawn 18+, so we’ll see if I’m on the right side…

Jackie Oh – 7s – one for Aidan O’Brien who’s yet to win this but does have a couple of placed efforts to his name. She hits my trends and I was impressed with her Irish 1000 Guineas effort, not far off them 2f out and not exactly stopping come the line when others went forward. The front two in that are classy and this is quite the drop in class. Ryan can ride a patient race drawn high and there’s a chance she gallops all over these, able to cruise along at a higher speed than a fair few in here. Fillies under big weights have won this and she could outclass them for her red hot connections. Her half-sister won this in 2020 also.

Novus – 16/1 - 25/1 – the first of two bigger priced EW pokes. Gary Moore is in fine form, as is his filly, who could well relish this step up to a mile, given there’s stamina galore on the dam side. She certainly wasn’t stopping at Goodwood when bolting up, in a race working out well. She brings a touch of ‘handicap hardiness’ to the party which could be a positive, and she looks to be drawn in the right place and has Andrea Atzeni to help her. She’s got a low weight and just looks overpriced. I suppose fast ground is a question, given her recent form on softer, but it’s more of an unknown and she ran well on Good to Firm over 5f on debut. So, here’s hoping. But at the odds, worth an interest EW wager.

Balalaika – 50/1 - 66/1 – she may be nowhere good enough here but Hayley Turner has won this twice in the last four years and it could be significant that she’s been booked. The horse arrives in form and drops back slightly in trip from Hamilton’s stiff 9f, which looked to stretch her a tad. That was a Sunday Series handicap and they’re competitive affairs which should stand her in good stead here. She can take a pull and they were aggressive with her there. She’s the sort who may well appreciate being buried off a relentless gallop and these are the conditions that can transform horses like this, leaving behind previous form. She hits my trends, Rebecca Menzies is a very good dual-purpose trainer and I’ll trust in Hayley to sneak her into 5th or 6th, which would be a decent result. And you never know!

 It’s likely I haven’t mentioned the winner of course but I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and my other previews. You can read similar musings by joining my FREE Newsletter at the link below…

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5.35 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Sandwiched in the middle of the Derby and Irish Derby, the 'Ascot Derby' is usually a poor shadow of either of those Group 1's, and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time. We have therefore to be content with the also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some place money.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race where they finished top 4 (unless it was the Derby). Interestingly, 12 of the last 16 winners had yet to win a Group race.

This year we have the Derby runner-up making an appearance which brings a bit of class to proceedings. The last time the Derby second turned up was in 2010 when At First Sight finished 4th here having chased home Workforce at 100/1 on his previous start. King Of Steel ran a remarkable race considering it was his seasonal debut and he only gave way in the last half furlong with the front two pulling four lengths clear of the remainder. He is a worthy favourite.

We also have the 7th, 9th and 10th lining up to give the race a Derby Consolation look about it.

It is worth noting that only six winners of the King Edward had their last run at Epsom since 1997 but four of those have come in the last six years and four of the six runners in this years field did contest the Derby. Those six winners in total had finished 3rd, 5th (twice) and 10th (three times). Bizarrely, simply backing the 10th home in the Derby when he shows up here would have given you results of 1-3-1-1-5 and a LSP of +12.25pts. That weird and completely accidental stat would point to the chances of Arrest who was sent off favourite at Epsom but seemed to lose his chance before the race had even been run having boiled over before the start.

The two that didn't run at Epsom are Relentless Voyager, who was third in the Italian Derby last time out, and Continuous, who had run third in the Dante but was only 8th in the French Derby. He'll be looking to bounce back from that run with the form of his York run giving him every chance. He's definitely the pick of the pair who side-stepped Epsom and can't be discounted given his illustrious connections (won the race last year with the Derby 5th).

With that emerging trend for trainers to target the race with an also ran from the Derby, usually with those that had failed to handle the course or had an excuse for a poor run at Epsom, I'm going to side with the beaten favourite from the Derby to continue that fine run of horses finishing down the Blue Riband field before running well here.

SELECTION: ARREST (WIN) at 3/1 general

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

 

6.10 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

There’s been some burn-ups over the years at Royal Ascot but I can’t remember the last time I saw one as loaded with pace as this is. 

Using Geegeez pace map it points to no fewer than a potential TWELVE front-runners if you look at the run styles from their last two runs, and that increases to 16 if you make it three runs. The potential for the pace to unravel in the last half-furlong is there for all to see and although I’ll be the first to say that hasn’t happened a lot this week as yet, we’re barely halfway as I write this and the ground is expected to continue to quicken up as the meeting goes on. 

 

 

So the way I’m looking at this at the moment is one that is very much an ar*e-covering exercise. I’ll chance my arm with something that might get clear and not come back, along with a couple that are likely to come from off the pace and weave through late, always an exciting watch at Ascot. 

Mick Appleby went quite close to winning this race with Fantasy Master back in 2021 and he’s got one of the fastest in the field in Michaela’s Boy, who now finds himself back in handicap company after good efforts in the 3yo Championships at Newcastle, where he again found 6f too far, and in the Listed Westow Stakes at York on his latest start where he had little chance on the figures but outran them to finish third. Freddie Larson has been unable to claim his 3lb on either of those starts but can do so here, so he takes off most of the 4lb he was raised for York. His early gate speed could take him clear of these and it’ll then be a matter of hanging on in the last 200yds. 

The other three I think are worth a mention are all “first-timers” of one description or another. 

In the case of Walbank, it’s a first start for Dominic Ffrench-Davis, with Amo Racing shuffling the pack as they do every now and then. Previously with David Loughnane, he went off favourite for the Norfolk last year and only found The Ridler too good. He lost little in defeat in the Molecomb but wasn’t seen after that until a below-par effort in the Westow, finishing well behind Michaela’s Boy. Ffrench-Davis doesn’t get too many first-time winners with other's castoffs though it’s interesting to note Maxi King won first time for him after leaving Loughnane earlier this year, so it can be done. The addition of blinkers might spark him back into life. 

Sweet Harmony looks one of those that will be held up off the pace to come through late, having form over both 6f and 7f, and there is the chance they’ll simply go too quickly for her. Having said that, she had the speed to lead over 6f at Haydock and looked worth a try at 5f on that running, finishing fourth to Get Ahead - just touched off in Group 2 company at Chantilly on her next start - after weakening late. Had she been equipped with blinkers she’d have been even more interesting, as trainer Richard Spencer has a very good record when applying such headgear first time, but she’s still of some interest with the cheekpieces today. 

A final swing will be Brave Nation, who looked a speedy 2yo last year, winning on debut and then finishing fourth in the Norfolk. Things unravelled rather quickly after that and in four starts since he’s only beaten two horses home. However, there was just a glimmer that all isn’t totally lost at Newmarket last time, as he travelled into the race nicely enough before finishing weakly again; hopes now rest on him being gelded since that effort. According to the H/S1 report, Michael Bell is 5-25 with first time gelded runners in the last two years (for a small profit to level stakes) and if it does turn him around you’ve a well-handicapped horse, being some 11lb lower than this time last year. There’s all sorts of risks attached, of course, but at 66-1 you don’t have to pay much to find out what, if any, ability remains. 

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And that, dear reader, is that. 28 races covered by seven writers, five of them guests, across four days; and a great couple of winners already in their midst. Thank you for making geegeez.co.uk a part of your Royal Ascot 2023 experience and, if you like what we do and are not yet a member of our multi-award winning* Gold racecards and form tools service, you can take it for a spin for as little as £1 at this link.

Matt

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Royal Ascot 2023: Day 3 (Thursday) Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

To the middle day of five, and the feature race of the entire week, the Gold Cup. Run over two and a half miles, and evoking recent memories of both Frankie Dettori and Stradivarius, but perhaps more poignantly of Her late Majesty The Queen and Estimate's win a decade ago. The Queen's enthusiasm and social mandate for the sport is irreplaceable, and it is to be cherished that King Charles - and perhaps especially Queen Consort Camilla - are sprinkling some of their patronage across a meeting so fondly enjoyed by the former sovereign.

Let's get to the sport: Thursday's septet of sizzlers tees off at two-thirty with the...

 

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service

A favourite has not won the Norfolk in the last 12 renewals; however it is not quite as open as you may first perceive, with 8 of the last 12 winners coming from the 2nd and 3rd favourite spots, respectively.

Unlike many races at the Royal meeting prior course form is not required with none of the last 12 winners having won at Ascot, but a win somewhere looks to be a must: 12/12 winners having had a previous run, and 11/12 having had at least one win in the build up to the race.

The question therefore is will Elite Status be the trend-destroyer? He was impressive on second start at Sandown, running a time way above par at the course and winning by an impressive five lengths. Surely if any horse is going to turn the grim record for favourites around, he is.

Noche Magica was beaten by Givemethebeatboys at the Curragh, that one running well in defeat on Tuesday in the Coventry Stakes. Noche Magica should improve for the surface and is dropped back to 5f, having won over that trip at Cork on debut. The 15/2 available at the moment looks more than fair, and it is of some note that the price is shortening. It is also very much worth mentioning that, from a small sample size, trainer, Paddy Twomey has his horses flying in the last 14 days.

A race where it typically pays to be up with the pace, the Wesley Ward talking horse, American Rascal, is likely to give them all something to aim at. Ward is quoted as saying, “he really is something” and, being the first foal of Lady Aurelia, herself a two-time winner here, in fantastic style in 2016 and 2017, out of the Breeders' Cup Classic winner Curlin, he could well be. If you are backing the Ward horse however, you are doing so out of the talk and hype largely and maybe, just maybe, that's enough!

Another horse, shortening as I write, is His Majesty for Ryan Moore and AP O'Brien, 10s in most places. A drop back to 5f will suit and he will be expected to improve for the surface, having won in Listed company at the Curragh on debut. It can pay to be drawn high and held-up in this race, and His Majesty will definitely make the short list.

Outside of those mentioned, nothing else leaps out of real interest. Elite Status looks to be the horse to break the trends and justify favouritism, but I will focus my attention on Noche Magica and His Majesty, the latter being one the market has caught on to.

Shortlist:
His Majesty 10/1
Noche Magica 13/2

 

3.05 King George V Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

25 of the last 26 winners finished top 3 last time out which is quite remarkable for such a competitive handicap while all of the last 13 winners finished top 2. Since 1997 there have been 22 winners to have won at least one of their last two starts with all four exceptions being maidens coming into this race.

All of the 13 winners since 2010 were rated 85-95. If we forget 2020 (the year of covid and a delayed start to the flat) we can also see that all of the last 13 winners had raced within the previous 40 days and had run at least twice that flat season.

Since 2007, all 32 horses to have raced in a maiden last time out have been beaten as have all 21 runners dropping down in trip compared to their last run. All 19 horses to have had their last run in a Group race this century have been beaten (Listed race runners are 1 win from 30 runners) while all five horses to race in a class 5 handicap last time have finished unplaced. Only two winners this century (2009 and 2012) had run more than seven times in their career up to this point with those two winners coming from the 59 horses with eight or more career starts.

Last year's winner, Secret State, was the first winner to carry more than 9-03 to victory since 2001. There had been 49 horses carrying 9-04 or more between those two winners.

John Gosden won this race in 1997 but has seen all 22 runners since then beaten with just four making the frame. His losers include 11 last time out winners, 20 that finished in the top four last time out and ten at under 8/1 including three favourites. He runs three this year with Burglar the mount of Frankie Dettori and the shortest price of the trio. He's won two of his three starts, both novice events either side of a defeat at odds on but the form from all three of those races looks poor with not a single winner coming from the 19 horses he's beaten.

Mark Johnston loved to have runners in this race and he won it five times between 2002 and 2018. He also had seven placed runners including the 3rd in 2020 and the 4th in 2019 from a total of 64 runners in the race. All five of his winners had run at least four times in their career, were rated 85+ and finished first or second last time out. Backing these Johnston types that were 12/1 or shorter would have given you the following results: 113014041017000 That's five winners and three places from 15 runners for a profit of +34.5pts. Son Charlie will be looking to restore the stable's great previous record in the race with Struth, who looks to fit the bill best of their two entries.

Another trainer looking to turn back the clock to former glories in this race is Sir Michael Stoute who won the King George V four times between 1998 and 2008 but has seen all 12 of his runners since get beaten (three placed). He's decided against running Nader King, despite having him jocked up earlier in the week, and that's thrown me a little as I had him down as my best handicap bet of the meeting. Back to the drawing board for me but that's probably a good sign to the chances of Perfuse who is now the only runner from the stable's three original entries.

I'm going to look away from the big name yards, though, to back a couple of outsiders. The first is DOUBLE MARCH who is one of only four runners to pass all the trends. He won at the course last time out in a race that has worked out very well with the 5th, 6th and 7th all winning since and both of the other two horses to have run since finishing second. In fact, in all of the races he's ever contested, there have been multiple subsequent race winners behind him including the Southwell maiden he won at the end of last season which has seen the runner up win his first two starts this season (now rated 91), the fourth win a maiden next time out at 28/1 (now rated 92) and the 5th win a novice event on his next start. Even the 9th home, beaten 12 lengths, is two from two this season and now rated 80. At Ascot last time Double March stayed on well to go clear in the final furlong before being eased close home and looking well worth a try at this longer trip. Up 7lb to 87 for that win I still think he's ahead of the handicapper and I fancy him to outrun his odds.

My other selection doesn't quite fit the trends but comes from the Hughie Morrison stable whose runners since 2010 have finished 35522. His runner this year, MR MISTOFFELEES is therefore greatly respected especially as he has been dropped a pound since his last run in the London Gold Cup handicap, a race that always provides lots of winners through the season. Plenty of subsequent winners have come out of the novice event he won at Kempton last December and he was only six lengths off Dante winner The Foxes in the Craven on his seasonal debut where subsequent easy winner Mostabshir was only a nose in front of him. We'll take as many places as we can and back him each way.

SELECTIONS: DOUBLE MARCH EW 25/1 / MISTER MISTOFFELEES EW 33/1 (6 PLACES)

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3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

The Ascot Oaks as almost literally nobody calls the Ribblesdale has attracted a bumper field of 19 this year. That is the biggest since at least 1988, and the implication is that there's no standout contender. The betting suggests otherwise, however, with the undefeated-in-two Al Asifah a shade of odds on despite the massed ranks in opposition.

You'd be forgiven for asking, "Who?", because Al Asifah, trained by the Gosdens and ridden by Jim Crowley, only made her debut four weeks ago, in a Haydock maiden. She won by half the track, or just shy of five lengths to be more scientific, and then dished up in a Listed contest, again over ten furlongs, at Goodwood. The margin that day was six and a half lengths and she's clearly 'could be anything' material. Regardless of what she could be, she already is seven pounds clear of her nearest rivals on RPR's and, naturally after just the two appearances, retains a bundle of upside.

So what are the negatives? Well, one is inexperience and two is the chance of a troubled passage in such a congested field: she was held up on debut and raced mid-division last time out, but those were six- and seven-runner races respectively. It's one of the quirks of Ascot that a high draw over a mile and a half is actually a positive, which is counter-intuitive but well supported by any of win or place strike rate, or percentage of rivals beaten as the image below attests. Actually, it may be more accurate to say that low is inconvenienced because middle draws have done just fine, too. Al Asifah has stall 13.

She is also stepping up in trip and, though she's by Frankel, her dam was a miler though with stouter-staying horses close up in the pedigree: she's likely, but not certain, to stay on breeding for all that her visual impression was that she'll relish the extra quarter mile. The fact that the Gosdens have won four of the last six renewals of the Ribblesdale is another string to the bow of her chance.

 

 

But there are plenty of unexposed ascendant types bidding to topple her, led by Infinite Cosmos, Bluestocking and Warm Heart. The first named was only third to the Gosdens' Soul Sister in the Musidora, an Oaks trial, at York; but she had an unorthodox journey that day, missing the kick then pushed into the lead before fading from a furlong out. She may again be handy granted a level beginning but I'd expect a slightly more patient ride than bidding to make all. She is very much bred for this range, and beyond.

Bluestocking represents the Ralph Beckett Midas Touch with fillies; a dual Oaks-winning trainer, he's the only handler apart from Gosden and Aidan O'Brien to win the fillies' Epsom Classic since 2012! Bluestocking was a head behind Warm Heart when they met in the Listed Fillies' Trial at Newbury (10f, good) last time and was closing all the way to the line. Her pedigree doesn't scream middle distances but she'll get help from Frankie, who takes over from Rossa Ryan, in the saddle.

Ryan Moore partnered Warm Heart at Newbury and stays on board here. She's a typically well-bred Galileo filly, out of a mare who won three G1 sprints in Australia. Not necessarily a natural for twelve furlongs, then, and she was all out at the line over a quarter mile shorter last time; but she'd won over the same ten furlong trip on soft to heavy the time before and may see the longer yardage out.

One definitely bred for the gig is Maman Joon, by Sea The Stars out of a Norse Dancer mare. Her siblings include Candleford, a mile and a half winner at Royal Ascot last year, and Atty Persse, also a mile and a half winner at Royal Ascot, in 2017. Maman Joon is a two-race maiden, but the more recent of that brace was when fourth in the Oaks last time out. She's drawn wide in 15 and can improve enough to hit the frame with a reasonable conveyance through the race.

From France, Crown Princesse, trained by Fabrice Chappet, is an interesting contender: she has raced only on all-weather and very soft turf to date but the last of her four races - when a close third in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary over ten furlongs, puts her in the mix. The fact she's travelled implies no going concerns, and she's the sort to have a strong turn of foot as can be seen from the sectionals at Parislongchamp:

 

She may need more luck in the run than many from stall five, but if the gaps open she is expected to finish well.

Of the massive outsiders, perhaps Understated's case may be exactly that: she's yet to finish outside the first two in three starts, and looked to struggle with the track at Goodwood when second in a Listed race there last time (good, 10f). Back on a more conventional circuit, and emerging from a middle draw, she's expected to race handily and is bred to stay well.

In summary, this is all about Al Asifah, who will very likely win if getting a clean run. That 'if' makes odds on unattractive, and I'd rather risk a cup of tea win and sticky bun place about the chance of something at a price. In that context, 22/1 Maman Joon is the unfortunate to be encumbered by my wild speculation.

 

4.20 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Gold Cup, run over 2m 4f, is one of the world’s most prestigious flat races, which has a long history dating back to 1807 and is arguably the highlight of Royal Ascot. The race attracts some of the best stayers in training, with notable winners including Yeats, who won the race four consecutive times from 2006 to 2009, and Stradivarius, who matched that feat between 2018 and 2021. In 2013 it was the late Queen’s mare Estimate who came out on top on a memorable day for the sport.

This year’s line-up doesn’t include a Yeats or Stradivarius. That said, fourteen have been declared for one of the trickiest renewals I can remember. I’m not really a trends player but I have noticed that four-year-old’s have a good recent record providing eight of the last 15 winners of the race. It’s also not really been a race for a shock winner with just one winner from 102 runners (-81, 9 placed) being returned 14/1 or bigger since 2008.

The bookies were going 10/3 the field on Wednesday morning with recent course winner Coltrane and last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov vying for favouritism.

Given that not many horses in the modern era stay a truly run 2m 4f it’s a bonus for supporters of Coltrane that the six-year-old is proven over course and distance having won the Ascot Stakes 12 months ago. He’s suited by a sound surface and won’t be far away. 

Eldar Eldarov was a good ½ length 2nd of 6 in Yorkshire Cup on his seasonal return. Has the class to win this and was doing his best work at the finish at York; he could well stay and may even improve for the step up to 2m 4f.  Trainer Roger Varian’s horses are going well so far this week.

Broome was a length further back in third in the Yorkshire Cup. I had fancied him for this after his win in the Dubai Gold Cup (2m) at Meydan, but Ryan Moore seems to prefer stablemate Emily Dickinson. She won a Listed race at Navan (1m6f) on her seasonal return but disappointed at Leopardstown last month. She has looked a thorough stayer, but it may depend what sort of mood she’s in: on a going day she’s a major contender. You have to respect Ryan’s choice, but Broome is a confirmed stayer and I think he’s overpriced. 

Subjectivist won the 2021 renewal but has only had two starts since suffering a serious tendon injury. He looked to have retained plenty of his old ability when a five-length 3rd of 15 to Broome at Meydan last time and, if he was back to his 2021 best, he would have an obvious chance. 

Courage Mon Ami made it a perfect three from three when winning a Goodwood handicap (1m 6f) on his appearance 26 days ago. On the evidence of his Goodwood success, he should stay 2m but whether he’ll stay 2m 4f is a an unknown, but looks worth a try. This is a huge step up in class.

Yibir was returning from a ten-month layoff when a respectable two length 4th of seven to Haskoy in Aston Park Stakes at Newbury last time. He shaped like the run was needed there and wants further than 1m4f these days. It is unclear if he will stay this marathon trip but he has the class to go close if he does.

Echoes In Rain is a smart hurdler who won a mares' Grade 1 hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last time. The seven-year-old showed she stays two miles on the flat when a neck 2nd of 30 to Waterville in the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh last September and, while she has plenty to find on Official Ratings, she’s trained by Willie Mullins so you can’t totally dismiss her.

Trueshan looks on the downgrade, and usually only runs with soft in the description; but he’s had wind surgery since finishing a seven length 4th of six to Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes here last month.

Verdict: Coltrane and Eldar Eldarov are worthy market leaders and of the pair I prefer the claims of the latter. If 2021 winner Subjectivist was back to his best, then he would be tough to beat. Courage Mon Ami is open to any amount of progress but we must take a chance on his stamina as well as his class. BROOME might be overpriced due to Ryan Moore opting for stablemate Emily Dickinson and he’s my pick at double figure odds. 

Broome – 12/1 general

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

 

5.00 Britannia Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

Ah, The Britannia Stakes… 33 unexposed 3 Year Olds, all still open to improvement run to run. Some will relish the occasion and relentless gallop we could see here, many will not. Nearly half the field won on their last start and you won’t be shocked to hear I’m relying on some help from my trends and trainer pointers…

 

The trends…

15/424, 60p (total winners, runners, placed horses)

  • 15/15 were top 2 at least once last three starts (were not: 067,4p)
  • 15/15 0-3 runs this season (4+ : 0/42, 2p)
  • 15/15 won by trainers with 1 or 2 runners in race (3+ : 0/71, 11p)
  • 14/15 had run over no further than 8.5f in career (had: 1/85, 10p)
  • 14/15 had not run at Ascot previously (had: 1/86, 8p)
  • 14/15 had won at least once last three starts (had not: 1/127, 13p)
  • 14/15 Top 5 last start (6th or lower: 1/98, 8p)
  • 14/15 did not run in a C1 race last start (did: 1/64, 6p)

 

Applying those pointers would have found 11 of the previous 15 winners (11/128 runners, 32p, +127 Betfair SP), although was 0/11 last year – that’s how it can go with this approach. If these trends bounce back this year, we’re looking at a long list of eight…

Quantum Impact, New Endeavour, Good Karma, Fort Vega, Naxos, Royal Cape, Highbank, Thunder Ball

 

The odds have been some guide in this, those sent off bigger than 28/1 SP 0/185,13p in the period. That could be something to keep an eye on.

An official rating of OR87-96 has been a sweet spot (excludes the top six in the weights this year) as has six or fewer career starts. Applying those pointers would leave five…

Quantum Impact, Good Karma, Fort Vega, Naxos, Royal Cape

 

The trainers…

Those to have won the race in the last fifteen renewals, with runners this year, are…

  • Quantum Impact (R Beckett)
  • New Endeavour (R Varian)
  • Royal Cape (H Morrison)
  • Carracci (A P O’Brien)

Of those trainers with runners in the race who look in particularly good form in the previous 14 days… Aidan O’Brien (6/19,11p, 75% RB - rivals beaten), Charlie Appleby (5/15,7p, 75% RB), Charlie Johnston (19/73, 31p, 57% RB), Jessie Harrington (6/25,10p, 62% RB), Dominic Ffrench Davis (3/9,3p, 57% RB)

That’s not to say other trainers are out of form of course, just those five yards are going particularly well.

In the last fifteen renewals this isn’t a race where the likes of Charlie Appleby (0/10,1p), Richard Hannon (0/20,2p) or John Gosden (0/25,5p)  have done overly well. Charlie Johnston has officially taken over the license from his dad Mark, and played an active role in recent years; but it isn’t a race they’ve done that well in either, now 0/34,3p. Maybe Charlie will have more luck under his own name. Of course, racing here is ultra-competitive and maybe one of those will get on the board this year, with nine runners between them.

 

To the horses…

In a race packed with unexposed 3YOs, including fifteeen last time out winners, I’ve stuck to my trends and trainer pointers and hope they work again. They may well do of course, and I’ve still picked the wrong ones from the long-list but my three against the field…

Quantum Impact – SP – the bookies are not taking many chances with Frankie’s rides this week but a few of his have drifted out nearer the off and it could be worth taking a chance on SP, if you don’t have ‘best odds guaranteed’. 6s could be getting on the short side in a race of this nature but the horse hits my profile and Ralph knows what’s required to win this race. Frankie is good friends with the owners and it will be significant he’s on.  He’s 8/21,12p +12 SP when riding for Ralph in the last year. There appears an even spread of pace on paper and it awaits to be seen if it’s best to be high or low. Hopefully there isn’t a track bias. The horse knows how to win and improved again stepped up to 1m on his last start. The 3rd there won a Class 2 on his next start so there’s substance to the form.

Royal Cape – 20/1 – another drawn low. Tom Marquand does well when riding for Hughie Morrison, 3/14,5p +18 SP in the last year, and the trainer knows what’s required around here. This horse was a bit keen at Haydock, got shuffled back and wasn’t in the best position when the tempo lifted. He ran on well under gentle encouragement, on ground he may have found plenty quick enough. The winner that day is fancied for the Group 3 Jersey Stakes on Saturday. He could well enjoy this sort of race set up, if patiently ridden and if settling early. Hopefully the occasion doesn’t get to him but he’s a big price for some fun interest.

Fort Vega – 22/1 – I thought it best to have one drawn high onside also, with pace that side also. Connections were thinking about the Irish 2000 Guineas and The Jersey Stakes for this horse, which suggests they think plenty of him and if they’re correct, he should be leaving behind a mark of OR89 in handicaps at some stage. Such Group level thinking may be fanciful but he’s got a progressive profile having won narrowly the last twice. He’s a powerful mover which should help in this sort of race and a more patient ride could also aid him, having hit the front plenty soon enough last time, but showing a great attitude to hold on. The third that day won his next start, adding some substance to the form. He’s a likeable horse who can hopefully outrun his odds, in another very tricky looking contest.

*Keep in mind almost all bookmakers are paying 1/4 1-2-3-4 in this race, with all profits on the race going to charity.

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5.35 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

Another race where, in recent times, you’ve not had to delve too deeply to find the winner, although Claymore’s upsetting of the applecart last year, defeating the long odds-on Reach For The Moon in a small field, bucked the trend a little. There will be no such odds-on poke this year and it looks a much more competitive event, with a few with recent solid form taking on horses with a little to find on the figures, but for whom improvement may well be forthcoming. It makes for interesting punting. 

We’ll start with the form horses and on that score Caernarfon comes out as well as anything. I had her pegged as a soft ground horse but she showed that thinking all wrong with her third in the Oaks, where she improved enormously. She arguably shaped like the second-best horse in the race and was only run out of the silver very late on after trying to chase the winner down; and, for all that was a big step up in trip, I don’t see a drop back to ten furlongs here being a problem. She gets a useful 3lb fillies' sex allowance, and stall 10 is no disadvantage - the last time we had a 16-runner Hampton Court, the winner and second both came from double-figure draws. She holds strong claims and heads up my shortlist. 

Waipuro’s sixth in the Derby was a solid effort and afterwards trainer Ed Walker thought he didn’t stay and that a drop back to 10f would suit; but he had a pretty hard race there and might have left his effort for this behind. I like the horse and am happy to be proved wrong but I feel it may be another day for him. 

Frankie rides Epictetus for the Gosdens and he too has form in the bank, but their other runner, Torito, ridden by Benoit de la Sayette, holds better claims from my perspective. This fast-improving colt won the Lester Piggott Handicap at Epsom with a bit left in the tank, where runner-up Silver Sword had impressed me when scoring easily at Southwell the time before, so I rate the form strongly. He has a turn of foot, never a bad thing when Ascot is concerned, and looks smart. He’s second on my shortlist and will be in my placepots, too. 

If there’s one at a big price - and I can’t resist a big price, you all know that - Oviedo fits the bill nicely. Having had six starts already he’ll be ignored by most punters but I can put the line straight through two of those as they were on soft/heavy ground, which I don’t think he wants. Concentrate purely on his good and good to firm ground form and things look a bit brighter. He won his maiden at Doncaster in eyecatching fashion (the pair behind both next-time winners) before being thrown in against Chaldean in the Acomb, again shaping very well for third. He didn’t encounter good ground again until last time out at Redcar where, stepping up to a mile and a quarter, he easily took care of City Streak, himself a ready Chester winner the time before. That form leaves him short by a few pounds but a 40-1 price tag makes up for that, as does his wide draw in 16 which could be ideal for one that will be ridden prominently. Extra places are on offer and I won’t be able to resist a couple of quid each-way. 

 

6.10 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

It was great to see this race return in 2020 after it was replaced on the card for five years and, it has to be said, this year’s renewal looks as difficult as ever! On Tuesday the rain not only had an effect on the ground but also seemingly on the draw. Prior to the morning downpour it was the stands’ side that had the highest going stick (higher means faster ground) but after the rain fell the far side had the highest reading. The action developed far side to middle in the straight course races so at the time of writing a lowish draw does seem to be preferred.

Wednesday’s racing will tell us more, especially the Queen Mary Stakes and the Royal Hunt Cup which are the biggest field straight course races on day two. It’s worth noting that the near side is yet to be explored and, according to Tuesday’s going stick readings, the near side was faster than the middle so you may wish to hold your bets until those races have been run in order to gain more evidence.

Pace will also play its part in determining where the best part of the course will be and the pace map, as usual, makes interesting reading.



It looks like all the pace is together in the centre stalls so they may end up coming up the middle in an arrowhead formation rather than splitting into multiple groups.

The market is heavily leaning towards the more unexposed runners and it’s easy to understand why. Of those at shorter prices I’d probably want to be against Biggles and Baradar (ground, assuming they don’t get thunderstorms on Thursday) and also Croupier (trip) whilst I think Unforgotten could land a race of this nature but he’s short enough all things considered now that he’s favourite.

Kingdom Come is closely matched with Unforgotten on their most recent outing and I think over this shorter trip Kingdom Come will reverse form with that rival, so I much prefer him at the prices given some bookies have Unforgotten at less than half the odds.

Northern Express is another one near the head of the betting that I quite like. This looks the ideal race for a smooth traveller like him and he was unlucky to be beaten by Croupier last time out at York so Northern Express should be the shorter of the pair here. Michael Dods’ runner looks an improved performer again this year and he ran an excellent 4th in the International Stakes 11 months ago off a 5lb lower mark.

There is no standout bet for me in this and to get involved in a race where half the field have valid claims I really want some big prices on my side.

There are several things NOT to like about Spirit Of The Light in this race. He’s well exposed, he has a poor win record for a horse of his quality and he ran very poorly in not one, but two course and distance races last season which is a big red flag. However, so many of his runs this season give him claims here. He ran some excellent races at Meydan in the early part of the year and then continued that form back here. His 2nd at Musselburgh in April on ground that was softer than ideal was brilliant form given the 4th and 5th have won since and the 1st, 3rd and 6th have also gone close. He holds Northern Express on that form.

He followed that up with an excellent 3rd at Newmarket where he finished on the heels of the subsequent 1st and 3rd in the Victoria Cup. On his most recent start he found 6f at York too sharp but he was making up eyecatching ground after meeting trouble in running and he again shaped extremely well. His price ranges from 14/1 to 25/1 at the time of writing and I’d be inclined to back him win only given he’s drawn very high, which could be a negative. Those poor course runs are also a factor in suggesting he shouldn’t be a place bet.

I’m even more keen on Accidental Agent, though, who is pretty much the outsider of the field at 50/1. The 2018 Queen Anne stakes winner is clearly on the decline but his rating may have declined more than his ability at this stage. He’s run some of his best races at Ascot and Newmarket: those venues have been the scene of his last five successes on turf. He looks to be at his best on straight courses and on decent ground, he’s won five from 22 on straight courses on good or better ground which is a fine record given he’s been highly tried in his time.

On last season’s form he has a decent chance in this. He was beaten 3½ lengths and 2½ lengths in similar course and distance handicaps last season off marks of 112 and 109 respectively and he’s now down to a mark of 101. He’s 16lbs better off with Northern Express for a 2¼ length beating in the International Stakes so has clear claims of finishing ahead of him. Even on his seasonal debut spin this year at Newmarket, on good ground off a 3lb higher mark, he has a decent chance given he wasn’t beaten far after being held up off one of the steadiest gallops you’ll ever see. Stall 8 might be just about perfect for him and he should be seen to best effect here on what will hopefully be decent ground.

So, to summarise, I’m looking to have an each way wager on Accidental Agent at around 50/1 and a smaller win only bet on Spirit Of Light at 20/1.

Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits. You can join my private service for just £1 if you click here.Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

**

That's a wrap on the third day of five for Royal Ascot 2023, and the third day of four here at geegeez.co.uk. It's tradition that readers are invited to rely on their own wiles for Saturday's card; but, before that, tune in again tomorrow for our 'home and away' previews of the Friday action.

Royal Ascot 2023: Day 2 (Wednesday) Preview, Tips

/in , /by

And so to the second juicy segment of the Royal Ascot tangerine: all fruit, no pith or peel. This week, geegeez.co.uk is featuring guest previews from some trusted friends - and fine judges - starting with the Wednesday curtain-raiser, the...

2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo fillies)

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service

The Queen Mary Stakes is a frantic five furlongs for the best two year old fillies in the game.

Got To Love A Grey was very impressive when successful at York, a Karl Burke front-runner is never to be ignored with the yard around 20% strike rate over the last 28 days. She would want to get out again, as being drawn in 15 it normally requires a prominent type to be successful. Got To Love A Grey also won well at Nottingham on soft, hence any juice in the surface should not be a hindrance.

The eye is further drawn to Born To Rock, for Jane Chapple-Hyam; she ran an above par time when winning at Yarmouth, do not be surprised if the two fillies mentioned thus far get out and set the others plenty to think about.

As to stats/trends, the top three in the betting has found eight of the last 12 winners. 10/12 winners won last time out, and that run was within 40 days of their run at Royal Ascot.

Beautiful Diamond, again for Karl Burke, sits atop the market and is shortening in places, she is likely to be held up as opposed to Got To Love A Grey, although the stats and trends would point to the favourite, money in the morning for the latter would be significant.

Relief Rally steps up in trip for the Haggas yard, and is in the mix for 3rd favourite, the yard however is not performing as expected and whilst that can all change in one day, she would not be a horse I would be interested in. That being said, as I type the odds are shortening and the yard have indicated there is nothing wrong with their horses, with rumours about feed swirling about amongst others.

In order as to how I will play the race, I will keep an eye on any significant market movements in the morning to see if any of the Burke runners separate themselves? Will the George Boughey filly, Graceful Thunder, receive support, having won well at Sandown, and being thought good enough to leap from Class 4 straight into Group 2 company? She's another likely prominent type, and the 33/1 available at present looks quite tempting. The same can be said for Princess Chizara, who is as front-running a type as they come, and her win at Brighton was impressive on the eye albeit in Class 5 company.

I will look to back both Burke horses, although will leave Beautiful Diamond if it hardens at the top of the market and goes below 4/1, preferring Got To Love A Grey who at present is around 10's.

It has been a good race for market movers, hence keep an eye on Balsam, ridden by Ryan Moore, who makes her debut in this class. It would be a stat-buster if she won but the booking is significant, and any money that comes late may just highlight her chances.

The pin will further likely land on Graceful Thunder and Princess Chizara at bigger prices and they are certainly both worth further consideration.

Shortlist:

Got to Love a Grey 10/1 each-way

Graceful Thunder 33/1 each-way

Princess Chizara 33/1 each-way

 

3.05 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

This is the third renewal of the Kensington Palace Stakes and, as such, there are no trends to help me along, and no 'trainer race records' to help either. Darn!

It may be worth noting that the first two winners carried 8-2 and 9-1, so it will be interesting to see whether any of the classier types can take this, those near the top end of the handicap, many of whom have some form in Class 1 contests. The first two renewals may suggest that a bigger weight is a hindrance, but it's early days in which to be making such assertions. As with many 'Festival Handicaps' you often need a bit up your sleeve and a progressive profile can help, those making their way up the handicap and yet to have reached their ceiling in conditions. Will class prevail this year or is there a lurker further down the handicap?

As I don't have any trends to help, I've had a look at a few more general trainer pointers, which for those of you who enjoy 'trainer angles' may wish to note down for the future. If trainer stats are not your thing, feel free to jump to the bottom with my race summary!

To start with I've had a look at all those trainers represented and how they perform with 'fillies' (female horses under the age of five). The top two trainers by win strike rate, with all such runners in recent years, are John/Thady Gosden and Simon/Ed Crisford.

The Gosdens operate at a 21.46% SR with all fillies, losing 203 points to starting price, but +243 to Betfair Starting Price.

Team Crisford operate at a 20.42% SR with all fillies, +71 starting price, +418 Betfair Starting Price. There may well be a micro angle hiding within these stats, if you enjoy playing around in the Query Tool.

Sir Michael Stoute, Roger Varian, Ralph Beckett and Roger/Harry Charlton are the other trainers represented who operate at greater than 15% win strike rate with their fillies.

Back to John/Thady Gosden for a moment... if you focused on 'fillies' / Ascot (all meetings) / horse sent off 12/1 or shorter starting price...

127 bets / 32 wins / 61 places (including wins)/ 25% sr / +57 SP / +83 Betfair SP / AE 1.42. (they do best with 3 and 4yo fillies)

There are two potential 'qualifiers' for that angle on Wednesday: Lady Eros (10/1) in this race, of particular interest under Oisin Murphy. And Grande Dame in the following race, under Jamie Spencer, who rides the 'Ascot Straight 8f' better than most.

Before I move on to touching on the horses and where my pins have landed, just a couple more micros to absorb and take away...

Roger/Harry Charlton...with their fillies at Ascot (all meetings) they are: 35 bets / 10 wins / 16 places (including wins) / +29% sr / +17 SP / +23 Betfair SP / AE 2.23 

They are 0/5, 1p at the Royal Meeting with their fillies but of course the racing this week is rather competitive! But an angle to note for sure moving forwards. They run Discretion in this race.

Finally on the trainers front, I'll mention Jessica Harrington, who with her Royal Ascot fillies is 13 bets / 3 wins / 5 places (including wins) / +3 Betfair SP. All wins so far have been in non-handicaps but Jessie's fillies are worth noting here this week. She runs Villanova Queen in this.

 

To the horses...

For those of you who like to focus on horses with course form, those to have won or placed at Ascot include... Crystal Caprice, Mukaddamah, Tarrabb, Belhaven, Don't Tell Claire, Farhh To Shy. Maybe the winner is there, staring me in the face, but I've landed on three others for small stakes interest... 

Lady Eros (9/1 - 10/1) - Given the Gosden stats above and her profile, I want her onside at 9-10/1. She arrives on the back of a comfortable success at Yarmouth, making all from a subsequent winner. She's a strong traveller and may well enjoy settling off a fast pace here. She's drawn in stall 1, this race on the round course, and that's a positive if Oisin can get her handy, without too many horses in front. He may need a gap up that rail as they swing into the straight. The ground should be fine and there has to be more to come at some point, especially given connections. She needs to step up, moving up from class 4, but she's open to any amount of progress in handicaps. Her dam has produced four winners already, and they all hit a RPR of at least 99 (some 105+), so here's hoping she leaves behind a mark of OR86 at some point. She's got a light weight which may help also. She'd be my main stab in this fiendishly tricky contest.

At bigger prices, Villanova Queen (16s) and Al Agaila (25s-28s) could be worth some minor EW support. Jessica Harrington's charge could have too much weight here, but she brings a touch of class, having run well in a Group 3 last April before being thrown into the Irish 1000 Guineas. She started this season well with a win over 7f, before soft/heavy found her out, and then she appeared outpaced back over 7f on her latest start at Listed level. She moves back up to 8f here and makes handicap debut - a mark of 99 could still underestimate her, for all it's a tough ask at the weights, but the yard are in great form.

Al Agaila represents the in-form team Crisford, and she needs to leave behind her run at Nottingham, after a break and where they blamed the very quick turf. If she runs like that again she won't be sighted, but she was in fine form on the all-weather before and looked progressive. She's a strong traveller who could appreciate settling behind horses here. She'll need luck from her wide draw but it's not impossible from out there and she could enjoy cutting through up the straight. The fact she stays further may be no bad thing and she may appreciate the expected slower ground here. It remains to be seen whether she's just an 'all-weather' horse but hasn't had many tries on grass. She could well give us a run for our money at a big price.

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3.40 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies and mares)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

A mile Group 2 on the straight course, for older fillies and mares, the Duke of Cambridge was first run in 2004. Since then, both John Gosden (and son Thady) and Sir Michael Stoute have won it four times. The Cheveley Park Stud has won five DoC's and is clear leading owner.

Cheveley Park and Sir Michael unite to the cause of Potapova, whose form this year - P5 - looks more like that of a point-to-pointer than a Group-class filly. On her day she's pretty good, as she showed when winning the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes last year; but it's faith in the connections that would be the most plausible route to a wager.

At the top of the shows are Jumbly and Prosperous Voyage. Jumbly has a mile win here, on the round course in the G3 Valiant Stakes last July, where she needed every yard of the trip to prevail. This is a step up in grade but the greater emphasis on stamina that the straight line presents is a positive. She opened her account this season with a career best second in the Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes and if stepping forward from that will take the beating.

Prosperous Voyage has greater race fitness, having already run twice this term. A disappointing debut at Newmarket, where she looked to be in need of the run, was confined to the dustbin 18 days ago when she came from last to first under Frankie Dettori in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Potapova three lengths behind, slightly troubled rail passage). This filly's form is closely pegged to that of Inspiral, who runs in the Tuesday opener. Expect her price to contract if that one wins, and to contract again if Frankie wins the previous race on the card. There is a minor concern that this comes soon enough after her Derby Day exertions.

As well as Jumbly, trainer Joseph O'Brien also saddles Honey Girl, a two-time winner this campaign before disappointing as favourite in the previously referenced Lanwades Stud Stakes. That she was favoured attested both to her form and the regard in which she is held, and she may be able to revert to winning ways albeit that her best races have been run on a softer surface.

Grande Dame, for the Gosdens, ran very creditably when third in the Group 1 Sun Chariot last October but hasn't been seen since; it's a big ask for her to prevail on seasonal bow. She may be ridden prominently, which was one of the keys to Saffron Beach's success a year ago.

Second in this class last time was Rogue Millennium: she was 20/1 there and patiently ridden, cutting through the Middleton field and very nearly catching all six of her rivals but failing to reel in Frankie on the favourite. There doesn't look to be too much pace in this race, with no more than an even gallop expected, and that may scupper her prospects of a repeat performance.

Queen Animatu has never been out of the frame in eight all-weather races, five of them wins; but she's nought from six on turf. There was some evidence presented in a blog somewhere that Ascot rides a little like an all-weather track (though I cannot support that statement here and now, alas) and it will need to for this lass to come out in front. She's not for me, though trainer William Haggas is obviously hugely respected.

Last year's winning trainer, Jane Chapple-Hyam, picked up Internationalangel after she was not sold at 19,000 guineas in August 2021. At that point, the filly was rated 67 having won two moderate contests in her previous three runs. She then went on to win her next five, all away from turf, before running a half length second to Highfield Princess in the 7f All Weather Filly and Mare Final over seven furlongs. Although she's not won since, she's amassed another £57,000 in prize money. Recent turf form has been restricted to just two domestic starts, second in a G3 and fourth in a G2, but she was also third in a valuable conditions event in Meydan on her final spin of three in the Emirates. This trip may stretch her stamina and she is probably not quite up to the level, on turf at least, but she's a fantastic story horse and has a most under-rated trainer.

Random Harvest may bid to make all, as she did when repelling all bar Prosperous Voyage at Epsom last time; but the turning Surrey Downs would be a lot more conducive to trailblazing than this stiff straight piste. Lightship was highly progressive on the all-weather this winter, rising from an opening handicap mark of 67 to her current perch of 100. She was bashed on bottomless at Goodwood on her sole 2023 turf try and was also thumped in her two Irish maiden efforts this time last year; as such the jury is very definitely out on whether she handles the lawns as well as the beaches.

The market looks to have a fairly tight grip on the Duke of Cambridge, with Jumbly and Prosperous Voyage the right favourites. They take out about 60% of the book, which seems reasonable. Of the two, I'd take a small chance on Prosperous Voyage though, in truth, whichever one goes off bigger - and bigger than 5/2 - would represent a sliver of value. Of the remainder, Potapova could be a busted flush, but her owner and trainer have farmed this race down the years and her run last time behind Frankie and Prosperous V was a little better than it looks in the book. She's 20/1 which might be playable for a tiny Hail Mary win single.

 

4.20 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Prince of Wales's Stakes is one of the most prestigious Group 1 races run during the Royal Ascot meeting. Contested over 1m 2f, it's open to horses aged four years old and up. The race has a long history, first being run in 1862. Over the years, it's been won by the likes of Brigadier Gerard, Dubai Millennium, Ouija Board, and Highland Reel. This year's renewal has attracted just six runners but, from a quality perspective, it looks like the race of Royal Ascot to me. Five of the six runners are separated by just 2lb on Official Ratings.

The first thing to stand out is the lack of pace in the race. Luxembourg proved his tactical versatility when making all to win the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last time. I thought he got a peach of a ride from Ryan Moore that day and had enough in hand to hold off Bay Bridge. If there's no pace, I would expect Ryan to go on again, and he could easily follow up.

 

 

Bay Bridge was a ½ length runner-up to Luxembourg at the Curragh, but I thought the winner was always holding him. The five-year-old was a bit keen last time, and that could prove to be the case here if there's no pace on once more. A length runner-up in last year's race, he's got to be respected given his liking for the course and distance, but he would want the showers to arrive.

Adayar won the Derby at Epsom and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes here in 2021. His best performance last season came when a ½ length 2nd of 9 to Bay Bridge in the Champion Stakes over track and trip last October. He took advantage of the drop into Group 3 company on his seasonal return when winning the Gordon Richards Stakes at Newmarket last month, with the runner-up Anmaat going on to win the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp. A smart performer at his best, he looks more than capable of winning a Group 1 over 1m 2f, and we do know he likes the track.

My Prospero was just a nose behind Adayar in the Champion Stakes. The four-year-old had earlier in the season finished a short head third to Coroebus in the St James's Palace Stakes. There was plenty to like about his seasonal reappearance effort when a 2 ½ length 4th of 12 to Modern Games in the Lockinge Stakes (1m). He got outpaced 2f out but was doing his best work at the finish that day, and the return to 1m2f looks a big plus.

Mostahdaf isn't totally without a chance on ratings, and we do know the five-year-old goes well fresh and on quick ground. That said, I will be disappointed if he were to win a race as hot as this.

It's good to see the race has attracted an international challenger in the shape of Classic Causeway. The American-trained four-year-old hasn't been in the winner's enclosure since landing the Belmont Derby last July. He could be a pace angle, and quick ground suits; but even a reproduction of his best American form wouldn't be good enough.

Verdict: Luxembourg should be able to confirm Curragh form with Bay Bridge. Adayar goes well here and shouldn't be far away. That said, 1m 2f on quick ground could be too much of a speed test for him. My Prospero will be suited by the return to 1m2f and the colt can’t be far away from a breakthrough Group 1 success. He’s my selection in the race and looks a bit of value at around 4/1.

Selection: My Prospero – 4/1

 

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

5.00 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

Traditionally one of my favourite races of the meeting, especially when there is a clear draw bias. Unfortunately the draw bias can be very unpredictable. I’ve usually preferred to be drawn high on summer fast ground here on the straight course but it can change from year to year, meeting to meeting, and even day to day.

Both sides have had plenty of success in the past decade. Five winners have been drawn 11 or lower, one was drawn in the middle in 15, and four have come from 21 or higher. Bear in mind I’m writing this before any of Tuesday’s races have taken place so it might be very obvious by the time you read this as to where the bias is, if there is one. My advice would be to hold your bets until after the King's Stand has been run at 3.40pm on Tuesday, at which point two big field races will have taken place on the straight course and you’ll have more draw evidence than I currently have.

In the absence of any evidence from this week’s racing I’m going to use the pace map for the race to help figure out where you might want to be drawn.

Royal Hunt Cup pace map
It’s immediately obvious that there *should* be a stronger pace on the near side (high numbers) than the far side (low numbers) which would suggest to me that the higher numbers will get a better tow into the race. The other thing that the pace map tells you, courtesy of the heat map, is that hold up performers tend to come out best in this kind of race.

Perotto is the early favourite and I respect his chances, having backed him to win the Britannia Handicap over course and distance two years ago. He’s 3lbs lower now and trained by Roger Varian as of this season. He put in a promising comeback in the Victoria Cup on soft ground, one of the last off the bridle and staying on well into 7th.

Despite winning the Britannia, he’s not necessarily better over a mile than 7f but he is almost certainly better on fast ground so it’s not difficult to envisage him improving. A hold up ride from a very high draw is possibly going to be the way to see a horse run to maximum effect here so he’s very much respected in this. He’s not an awful price but he’s short enough considering he does have to improve on recent showings, for all there are obvious reasons why he should improve.

One I’ve had in mind for this race for a while is Intellogent and if you take a look at the pace map, he should be just as advantaged by the run of the race as Perotto. Intellogent was 2nd in last year’s renewal and that seemed one of the stronger Royal Hunt Cups for a while. The winner went close in the International Handicap next time out, the 3rd won his next three starts, the 5th and 7th won next time out and the 13th and 15th were other subsequent winners from the race. Intellogent returns here 1lb lower than he was in last year’s race.

That Hunt Cup run wasn’t his only strong big field form from last year. He was also a close 3rd and arguably unlucky loser in the John Smith’s Cup, a remarkable achievement given he gave weight to the winner who has now won a Group 1! His form tailed off somewhat for the rest of the season but he’s looked better than the bare result in both runs this season. He traveled really well in the Earl Of Sefton but ultimately needed the run on softer than ideal ground and then he caught the eye at Newbury last time, doing best of those held up after meeting trouble in running. He’s clearly been targeted at this all season and I fancy him to go well.

Another one I’ve had in mind is Astro King. He, too, represents last year’s Hunt Cup form when he was 4th off a 3lb higher mark and it’s worth remembering he was 2nd to Real World in this two years ago as well, winning the race on the near side. He very much caught the eye last time out at York in a decent race that didn’t play to his strengths and he looks primed to strike in what ought to be ideal conditions (a stiff mile and fast ground). The draw is potentially a problem though as he’s in stall 12.

At bigger prices Greatgadian (top price 28/1) could outrun his odds. His Lincoln run was excellent, as was his recent Nottingham effort which didn’t set up for him, and he could run into a place if stall 13 is okay. Orbaan is another who could be suited by this test but a repeat attempt at the Goodwood Golden Mile is probably what he’s being primed for. Outbreak should appreciate the ground and he’s a massive price (50/1) considering he finished in front of Intellogent last time out but he might find himself a bit too close to the pace in this and stall 10 might not be ideal. He’s one I could see going well in that Golden Mile at the Glorious Meeting next month or even the mile handicap at Sandown on Eclipse day.

One last one I want to mention is Ghaly. His win at Newmarket towards the end of last season has worked out amazingly well and, although that came in soft ground, he does handle faster turf. The balance of his form suggests he is better on soft though and it’s also his seasonal debut so I’m not a backer in this but I’ll be keeping a keen eye on him with a view to having a bet next time he gets plenty of give underfoot.

So, in terms of what to back, if Tuesday’s races suggest a strong bias towards lower numbers I’d be very keen on Astro King (10/1 easily obtainable at time of writing) to make it third time lucky in this race. If it looks as though higher numbers are favoured then Intellogent would be my bet (10/1 easily obtainable at the time of writing). If it is looking like only the higher numbers can win I’d also be interested in a reverse forecast on Perotto and Intellogent.

There is a fair chance there is no visible advantage from tomorrow’s races and if that’s the case I’d be having a small win only bet on Astro King and a slightly bigger each way bet Intellogent.

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5.35 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)

Preview by our own David Massey

In recent times, you’ve not had to look too far from the top of the market to find the winner of this, with the biggest-priced winner in the last five years just 15/2. Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner twice in that time, with Santiago in 2020 and Kew Gardens back in 2018, so it makes some sense to start with his Peking Opera, a 15/2 chance at the time of writing. 

Useful at two, he improved when stepped up to 13f at Naas last time, looking like he needed every yard, and this further step up in trip should bring about a bit more improvement.

You can knock a hole or two in the Naas form should you want to, as all six runners were covered by 2½l and the time figure was nothing more than solid, but you write O’Brien and Moore off at your own peril. Still, he's not for me at the prices. 

Gregory comes into this as favourite after two wins from two starts for John Gosden and as the mount of Frankie Dettori, who could steer something that gives the kids rides for a pound a pop on Blackpool Beach at Ascot and the crowd would still back it: Gregory will be supported on the day. He looked a thorough stayer at Goodwood last time out and Rab Havlin had to get stuck into him before he found top gear, but once he found it, he came right away in the closing stages looking a stayer in the process. The worry with him could be a lack of tactical speed in the closing stages; I’d imagine Frankie will be looking for the outside as any check in his run could see him struggling to find that big gear. He will remain of some interest whatever happens here, but if he’s too short, I’ll be considering laying him.

Circle Of Fire was given little chance against Military Order in the Derby Trial last time, trying to come from a poor position to win and got no nearer than a 5½l third. He looks sure to relish the step up in trip, the dam a winner over a mile and a half, but his overall form needs improvement. 

Of those at the front of the market it’s Chesspiece that makes the most appeal. I had the pleasure of seeing him in the flesh at York and he’s a really good-looking, tall, well-built type that looks made for staying trips. He ran on willingly after seeming in a spot of trouble at the top of the straight and the extra two furlongs today will be in his favour. For all that Ascot might not turn out to be the track to best showcase his talent, I suspect he’ll be ridden forward to sit behind the likely pacesetters and that should give him first crack at the leaders turning in. He showed some speed on debut when scoring at Newcastle anyway, and that despite greenness. I fancy the York run is strong form and will work out well, and he’d be my main pick for the race.   

Of those at bigger prices St Vincents Garden makes some appeal. He’s looked nothing but a stayer from the word go and although he’s got ground to make up on Peking Opera on that Naas effort, the race wasn’t run to suit and he was tapped for toe. In fact, I thought he did rather well to win his maiden at Fairyhouse last time given he was dropped back slightly in trip, and this test will suit him well. The dam was a thorough stayer at 2m (and slightly beyond!) on the Flat and I’d not be surprised to see him outrun his odds. 

6.10 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Since being upgraded to Listed status in 2004 all 19 winners have been males (just 2 fillies placed from 56 runners) who had run 1-3 times (44 losers had run 4 or more times) and had run in the last 43 days (18 losers had not). They had all finished top 6 last time out with all 19 horses that finished 7th or worse last time out also finishing unplaced here.

Only one winner had their last run on the all weather (from the 34 to have tried) when the maiden Flashmans Papers caused a massive shock at 100/1 in 2008. He had, though, made his debut on turf at Windsor.

Maiden winners aren't that uncommon with, as well as that 2008 winner, the 1997, 1999, 2002, 2019 and 2020 winners all scoring for the first time here. It's worth noting that they had all finished either second or third last time out. The last horse to win on debut was the Sir Michael Stoute filly Dazzle who scored as the 7/2 favourite back in 1996 when the race was run as a Class 2 contest.

14 of the last 17 winners had suffered a defeat at least once in their career with all 3 exceptions coming into the race having won their only start. The last 18 runners to have won both their last two starts have been beaten in this with just two making the frame.

Wesley Ward has won the race twice but all of his other 15 runners have finished unplaced including his last 12 runners (he last won the race in 2014), all of his 10 fillies and 13 of his 14 runners that were 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

Shocks are common in the Windsor Castle with Flashmans Papers at 100/1 and Wesley Ward's Strike the Tiger at 33/1 being the largest priced winners this century. We've also had two 16/1 winners, two 20/1 winners and a 22/1 winner since 2006.

Middle drawn horses haven't fared too well in the Windsor Castle with all bar two of the last 26 winners drawn within 7 of either end of the stalls.

Runners from Sandown's National Stakes have had a good record in the race since 2015 (321214) with both 2017 winner Sound And Silence at 16/1 and 2021 winner Chipotle at 22/1 having run in that contest. In fact, in 2021 the Sandown race provided the 22/1 winner and 4th at 66/1 from just two qualifiers. This year's impressive winner Elite Status goes elsewhere at the meeting, and is a hot favourite, but the 2nd and 3rd are represented.

It really is a very open race and with the recent history of the National Stakes and outsiders doing well I'm simply going to side with the runner up from this year's race, WORLD OF DARCY. He was eased down when winning on debut at Pontefract in early may (runner up was a stable mate and has since won his last two races) before doing best of the field to chase home Elite Status, albeit at a distance of 5 lengths in that Sandown Listed contest. He comes from a stable who does well with their juveniles and should go well from a decent draw.

SELECTION: WORLD OF DARCY 1/2pt EW at 20/1

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

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And that brings us to the two-fifths point of the week, but half way on the geegeez previews with yours true traditionally too cream crackered after going through 28 races to face the Saturday card. It could well be that that comes as a blessed relief by then!

Good luck.

Matt

Royal Ascot 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

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It's the best week in the British flat racing calendar, and Royal Ascot 2023 promises to showcase the very pinnacle of the sport with runners from around the world competing on the greatest stage. With no more than a few showers forecast conditions are expected to ride on the quick side of good through five days of thrilling action.

In a change from tradition, necessitated by a badly timed dose of Covid and a longer than expected return to full fitness, I've drafted in some help to cover this year's Royal meeting. Specifically, I've asked six pals in the game to each preview one race per day Tuesday to Friday; and I will preview the other one each day. That should make for an interesting mix of styles, and it's an opportunity for a few of the best tipsters around to illustrate their work.

As I always say when I write 20,000 words-plus in the big meeting weeks, it's the same amount of effort that goes into the research whether the picks win or lose, so please try to keep an eye on each contributor's 'process' - how they present their case - as well as their performance in this tiny four-races-each sample. If you like what you read, you can check out more of their work at the links provided; but, of course, this is the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot preview, so allow me to kick things off in the Queen Anne Stakes...

 

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

About half an hour after the Royal Procession, which - crucially for racing - will include His Majesty The King and Queen Consort Camilla, a dozen older blueblood thoroughbreds will travel the same final mile, albeit at a considerably more rapid rate, in the Queen Anne Stakes, the now traditional opening act at Royal Ascot.

The straight mile takes some seeing out for both horses and riders and is a pure test of 'getting the fractions right'. As can be seen from the image below, held up horses have the best record on quick ground in this field size over the no turn mile track.

 

 

Indeed, it is worth dwelling on the fact that horses racing either on the lead or prominently are a woeful 2 from 85 (2.35% strike rate), whereas those ridden more patiently have won 14 from 122 (11.5% strike rate). The place percentages and PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) figures corroborate the win numbers: taking one's time is generally the way this gets done.

Fans of the top of the market need not fear, as both Modern Games and Inspiral usually rate in the middle to latter part of the field before making their big moves. Inspiral will be the first of 30-odd Frankie 'bogeys' for bookmakers and if she collects, expect further cuts to the odds of Signor Dettori's mounts later on the card. Her form case is strong, if hardly bombproof; to wit, she won the Fillies' Mile as a two-year-old on Newmarket's straight Rowley course, and she won the Coronation Stakes over the round mile here last year - both Group 1 contests. She also prevailed in last year's Prix Jacques le Marois.

But she was beaten in the Falmouth (straight mile, G1) when sent off 1-7, and was only 11/10 when missing the break in the QEII over course and distance last backend. In spite of winning five of her seven career starts, she's lost her most recent two. She has gone well fresh, which is a positive, but looking closer at the merit of her form, she beat the same filly, Prosperous Voyage, twice, before losing to her, and was four  lengths behind Modern Games in the QEII. Prosperous Voyage is a good filly but she wouldn't be 2/1 in this field, or 3/1.

Moreover, in France, she had a neck to spare over Light Infantry, who re-opposes as a 25/1 shot. Very few ride straight miles better than Jamie Spencer, which makes Light Infantry interesting at his price.

What of Modern Games? There was, for about half an hour, some chat about Charlie Appleby's team being out of form. It wasn't totally unmerited as his usual 25% and up strike rate dropped to a more everyman 12%. Then, of course, the blues started winning again and, at time of writing, he's showing at 38% in the past fortnight. More usefully, he's a 29% hitter over the past year. Modern Games won the Breeders' Cup Mile last autumn, a more different mile G1 you couldn't wish to find; but he also ran second in the QEII over this track/trip combo and won the G1 Lockinge down Newbury's straight eight.

It could be argued that the field that last day was less than stellar; given that a number of them also line up here, that argument is academic. Modern Games looks the more credible for match bet players against the filly, despite conceding three pounds sex allowance to that one.

Let's talk about ratings for a minute. Given that we are 2/1 each of two - Inspiral and Modern Games - you might expect that they'd have a clear ratings edge over the other ten. Well, they are top of the pile, the colt on 121, the filly on 120; but it's a yawning, erm, one pound back to the next pair, Mutasaabeq and Native Trail, both on 119, with Light Infantry 116, and Pogo and Berkshire Shadow on 115. That's quite a congested collective, just six pounds separating seven runners. Regardless of whether either of the two jollies win, the race is screaming for an each way play against them.

Mutasaabeq goes from the front, and although Circus Maximus was able to win in that manner under a masterful Ryan Moore ride in 2020, I'd be against such tactics normally. Mutasaabeq is likely to face contention from Pogo for the lead, and in any case has done his winning in small fields at Group 2 level. Native Trail often races prominently, and may also be a little closer to the heat earlier than ideal. His form is perfectly plausible, away from an abortive two-race ten furlong adventure. On his first spin this term, he ran flat behind the aforementioned Muta on what also his first start after a wind op.

Last year started with a win in the Craven, second in the 2000 Guineas and a win in the Irish 2000 before running a close third in the Eclipse; it ended, one run later, with a pasting at the hands of an imperious Baaeed in the Juddmonte International at York. Back at a mile and if ridden with restraint, he can reverse form with his last day conqueror, though he doesn't look any sort of bargain in the market.

Chindit is another who tends to race up with the pace, as he did when the middle man of seven in this race a year ago; he was whacked eight lengths by Baaeed there, but one must remember that Baaeed dished out plenty of spankings in 2022. It should also be noted that, during the closing stages of the Lockinge, in which Chindit finished second to Modern Games, he tried to bite that rival! Presumably that was a one off but it does rather bring into question his temperament...

Let's come back to Light Infantry. David Simcock's globetrotter has run some crackers in defeat: he was a staying on second over an inadequate seven furlongs in last year's G1 Prix Jean Prat, was a staying on neck second to Inspiral next time out in the G1 Jacques le Marois, and was a two length staying on sixth of 20 over seven and a half in the G1 Golden Eagle at Rosehill, Australia, after that. Sure, he's taken time to find his form this season but, on his third and most recent outing was a short neck second in the G1 Prix d'Ispahan over nine and a half furlongs. He actually led there but, if Spencer bides his time here, this fella is likely to finish well. And he's 20/1. He's my each way against the field, four places with 365 if you can get them.

 

3.05 Coventry Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service

Royal Ascot, Day 1... and for the Royal meeting, Cleeve Racing's head advisor, Mike C, will be previewing some of the major 2-year-old races, and providing a shortlist for Geegeez punters to consider.

Tuesday, is the Coventry Stakes... this is a race, in more modern times, where it has paid to look away from the favourite, with winners at 150/1, 11/1 and 8/1 going in in the space of the last three renewals. A wise man once said, "trying to make sense of 2 year-old form is similar to Michael Fish predicting the weather"... but was he right?

Well, looking at the market, the impressive River Tiber sits 2 wins from 2 runs and has posted speed figures above par at Navan and Naas respectively. Asadna burst onto the scene for the Boughey yard, and on the clock, is arguably the quickest horse in the race (when one considers weighting - they will all run off a level 9st 3lbs here).

Bobsleigh, at a much bigger price, catches the eye after chasing down the front-running Balon D’Or at Epsom just before the line. That hold up style, however, may prove his undoing as he will need to be passing some serious horses this time. Jockey Charles Bishop may be wise to ride him sightly more prominently on what is likely to be decent ground (assuming the rain largely stays away!). 11 of the last 12 Coventry winners won their prior start, an angle which removes five from the field, though none shorter than 40/1.

Givemethebeatboys has secured the Dettori magic for the race, and had the beating of Noche Magica (well regarded for the Norfolk on Thursday) when scoring at the Curragh on Irish Guineas weekend. Jessica Harrington’s horses come into the meeting with a 26% strike rate over the last 14 days, and she's 7 from 29 at Ascot in the past five years, so her runners are not to be ignored.

A 66/1 shot here, Politico won over 6f at Chester and James Doyle has been jocked up by Charlie Johnston. If able to improve for the firmer ground, this front-runner is well drawn in 4, and will certainly want to get out and see it all before him; if he gets rolling, and you can get extra places with your bookmaker (Sky 6 places, 365 5 places), he may take some catching if the race falls apart behind.

Politico and Bobsleigh are big prices, and at 66/1 & 20/1 would be the each-way plays at small stakes, and I'd certainly be looking for extra places or other concessions. River Tiber looks the right favourite and you would be brave to not think AP O’Brien and Ryan Moore will rule the meeting once more; at the odds, however, towards the top of the market, Givemethebeatboys, who goes through the sales ring Monday ahead of the meeting, looks worthy of an each way play. The Frankie factor may shorten the odds further in the morning, hence if you fancy that one, get on overnight.

 

3.40 King's Stand Stakes (5f, Group 1, 3yo+)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Since 1997, we have had 11 winners from the 26 renewals of the King's Stand that were trained outside of the UK and Ireland (France, America, Hong Kong, Spain and Australia) making it the most 'international' race run at Royal Ascot in the last quarter of a century. Ireland's contribution in that time consists of dual winner Sole Power, who is the only Irish-trained horse to win the King's Stand since 1987, with 32 Irish-trained horses to have tried since 1997.

Australian runners top the table of international raiders with five wins this century, all five having contested the Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington that February. Four of the five won that Group 1 with the other (Nature Strip) failing by a short-head in second. This year's winner, Coolangatta, is set to line up and she must therefore be respected having won that very important trial by ½ length from the subsequent Group 1 winner I Wish I Win.

We've had a 3yo, 4yo, 5yo, 6yo and a 7yo win in the last six years with a pretty even spread of those age groups throughout this century but no horse over seven has won the King's Stand in the history of the race as a Group 1 (1973). Based purely on the win % strike rate of each age group the 6yo and 7yo's just shade their younger counterparts.

Charles Hills has probably been the best trainer record in the race with his last nine runners finishing 272722145. These runs have come from just three horses including his runner again this year, Equilateral, who has finished 2-7-5 in the 2019/2020/2022 renewals. He'll be bidding to become the oldest ever winner of the race but it's difficult to see him winning as an 8yo when he was unable to win in his younger days as a 4,5 or 7yo.

Six of the seven winners between 2003 and 2009 were overseas winners that didn't have an official BHA rating but the odd one out through those seven years, and all of the last 13 winners, have been rated 111+. That means a lot of the runners in this year's field don't quite 'cut the mustard' compared to a typical King's Stand winner. This includes the well fancied filly Dramatised (currently rated 108).

But, five of the seven winners between 2010 and 2016 had their previous run in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock and, although the race hasn't provided the winner since then, there have been seven horses to come out of that race to finish top five here including at odds of 50/1 and 66/1. Dramatised beat Equilateral in this year's Temple Stakes by a length with Existent 4th and Mitbaahy, Happy Romance, Annaf and Twilight Calls further behind in 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th respectively. All five winners and the nine further placed horses that last ran in the Temple Stakes had all finished in the first seven. Annaf and Twilight Calls therefore have it to do to reverse form here.

Fillies or mares have only won the race four times this century but those winners came from a much smaller number of runners than their male counterparts which actually gives them a better overall % strike rate. You would be foolhardy to dismiss any female runner in this race based purely on their sex especially as we find three exceptional female sprinters at the head of the betting market: two 3yo fillies from opposite sides of the globe, Coolangatta and Dramatised, and the multiple Group 1-winning 6yo mare Highfield Princess.

On both the trends and current form it would seem that the race winner is likely to come from this trio with my preference being to side with HIGHFIELD PRINCESS. She racked up a Group 1 hat-trick last Summer before rounding off her year with a 4th in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. She's a versatile mare who has won Group 1's on ground ranging from Soft to Good to Firm and has won from 5f to 7f. She made a very encouraging seasonal debut when, despite her sex allowance, she still had to give weight to the entire field yet just failed by only ½ length to hold on in the closing stages of the Group 2 Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York.

This is going to be fast and furious with some international 'speedballs' who like to race from the front sure to make it a real five furlong dash, and that might just help the selection who likes to race prominently herself and who will be quite content to get a tow into the race before unleashing her stamina-packed finish.

For those looking for a bigger price to get stuck into, I'm also having a small each way bet on BRADSELL who returns to the scene of his greatest victory to date, last year's Coventry. Things haven't really gone to plan since with defeat in last season's Phoenix Stakes and two 3rd place finishes so far this year but he's had excuses and this drop back to 5f looks a great move from his trainer. He hasn't quite got home in either of his starts in 2023 but both times he came through to lead at around the furlong pole and this fast run 5f race could be just what he needs to see him return to something like his best.

SELECTIONS: 5/2 HIGHFIELD PRINCESS WIN / 33/1 BRADSELL EW (As many EW places as you can get)

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

 

4.20 St James's Palace Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The St James's Palace Stakes has a rich history and has seen some of the best three-year-old milers in the sport compete for the winner's first prize. It often attracts top-class horses who have previously contested one of the mile colts' Classics earlier in the season. It offers a chance for the leading three-year-old milers to establish themselves as the best in their age group. Nine have been declared for this year’s renewal and it promises to be the race of day one of Royal Ascot.

All the Guineas form lines come together in this year’s race: we have Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas winner Chaldean and the third home Royal Scotsman; the Irish 2,000 Guineas form is represented by winner Paddington, and we also have the French 2,000 Guineas runner-up, Isaac Shelby. Add in a couple of progressive up in class contenders in Cicero's Gift and Mostabshir and we have the makings of a cracker of a contest.

It was good, good to firm in places on the round course on Monday morning and so far most of the thunderstorms/heavy rain missed Ascot with light rain forecast for Tuesday. If the ground has eased that will be a big boost to the chances of ante post favourite Chaldean. The son of Frankel is likely to be ridden prominently. However, there looks to be plenty of pace on and horses ridden more patiently to tend to be the ones to be with over this round mile.

Second in on my ratings is Paddington. The son of Siyouni has won all three starts this season and created a good impression when winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Tactically versatile, he’s open to more improvement than Chaldean and is bidding to give Aidan O’Brien a ninth success in the race.

Royal Scotsman ran terribly in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time. That performance was too bad to be true and whist I think the round track will suit the colt better he does have questions to answer after his run at the Curragh.

Isaac Shelby was runner-up in the French 2,000 Guineas and should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. He's another who is ground versatile, having won on good to firm as a juvenile and nearly won a Classic on very soft last time, and I think there could be more to come from this colt who has solid each way claims.

Cicero's Gift has been well supported in the ante-post market. A winner of his sole juvenile start, he has won both his races this year and produced a Group 1 level turn of foot to win at Goodwood last month. He's yet to race on quick ground but there’s no reason on pedigree why he can’t be effective on it.

Mostabshir is another who has been well backed in the ante-post betting. He's back up in class after winning a novice stakes last time, but there was plenty to like about that quick ground success at York.

I find it difficult to make a case for the other three runners Galeron, Charyn and Indestructible. Of the three, Galeron was just 3¼ lengths behind Paddington in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and should be suited by the likely pace of the race.

Verdict: Of the front two in the betting - Chaldean and Paddington - I’m firmly in the latter’s camp. The price has gone on Cicero's Gift but he remains an exciting prospect. The same can be said of Mostabshir but there’s a bit of juice left in his price, and he could drift on the day. The market seems to be underestimating Isaac Shelby’s French Guineas form, but I think it would be unwise to do so, and I think he can go close. Paddington is the most likely winner but at 10/1 Isaac Shelby looks the value each way play.

Isaac Shelby – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 3 places)

 

 

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

 

5.00 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

The trainers...

As always a thorough stamina test awaits this year's runners and riders, with the trip just shy of 2m4f. It's an unsettled forecast which is never overly helpful and the course could receive up to 6mm of rain on race day, on watered ground. It has been very dry, however, and whether this changes the ground too much it awaits to be seen, but even on decent ground there is rarely a hiding place in this contest. I'll assume it will be no worse than 'good'.

Unsurprisingly given the distance, dual purpose trainers, many with a focus on the jumping game, have done very well in recent years. Willie Mullins leads the way, winning this on four occasions in the last eleven renewals, from nineteen runners. Ryan Moore has ridden three of those winners and that combination, with last year's second Bring On The Night, heads the market with the odds compilers taking few chances.

Ian Williams knows how to win this race also, having bagged it twice in recent years. He's throwing four darts at this year's contest: Zinc White, Law of The Sea, The Grand Visir and East Asia. Alan King (Tritonic) and Nicky Henderson (Ahorsewithnoname) are the two other trainers with runners in this year's renewal to have won the Ascot Stakes previously. Their runners deserve an even closer look.

Keeping an eye on those trainers who've previously been successful in a race is a worthwhile 'way in', as you'd like to think they've targeted the race again and know the type of horse required to get the job done. In these big Festival handicaps I do also like using my own trends to help narrow down the field. The danger with trends and 'shortlists' is that you can be blinded to other runners, but again, as a 'way in' or 'starting point', I find them useful.

 

The trends...

My 'trends profile' for this race, looking at the last 15 renewals...

15/287 total runners, 61 placed horses (including winners) 

15/15 had 11+ career runs (10< : 0/70,13 places)

14/15 had won at Class 3 level or above (had not: 1/84, 13p)

14/15 had won over at least 2 miles in career (had not: 1/78, 12p)

14/15 had never run in race (had: 1/39, 2p)

14/15 had 2+ handicap wins in career (0-1: 1/118, 20p)

 

Applying those trends would have found 12 of the previous 15 winners, 12/91 runners, 29 placed horses (including winners), +151 points to Betfair Exchange Starting Price, if backing them all. The horses to hit the profile this year are:

Ahorsewithnoname, Callingthewind, Zoffee, Solent Getaway, Tritonic, Urban Artist, Prince Imperial, East Asia 

Every winner in the previous 15 renewals has also run in at least four handicaps. Plenty with fewer than four have placed, but as yet none have got their heads in front. From that list above, Ahorsewithnoname and Urban Artist need to overcome their handicapping inexperience.

For those of you who enjoy finding your own winners, those initial eight 'qualifiers' could be a worthwhile starting point, along with the trainers list above also.

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So, where does that leave me... after much cogitating...

Calling The Wind - I want to have the Richard Hughes runner onside here at double figures, with as many places as I can get my hands on.

 

Any users of Geegeez Gold and the 'Instant Expert' tab will see why he appeals as an EW proposition in this race - see above.

Provided he drops his head we should get a run for our money and he's one of the few horses in here proven over the trip on the flat (and over further), which should count for plenty as they enter the final 1/2 mile. He also won't mind what the weather does. The horse hits my trends profile and has yet to be out of the places at Ascot, with a course record of 1/5, 5 places. Two of those places were in the last two runnings of the Queen Alexandra Stakes, which is over a couple of furlongs further and that distance may just stretch him here.

This trip looks his optimum, especially if he can get a more prominent position and just lob along. If he settles (he was a bit fresh when last seen), he should just keep galloping at the end, when many have had enough. He's just a very likeable stayer and this mark of 99 looks workable. With Billy Loughnane's useful 3lb claim, he's just 2lb higher than when winning a decent handicap at Goodwood over 21.5f. In fact this is just his second ever flat handicap over 20f or further, and there could still be some upside potential in such conditions. I'd like to think this has been the plan and Richard has his string in fine form... 5/22,8p in the previous 14 days, 59% rivals beaten. Everything looks set for a monster run here and he should be able to get out and slot in handy. Hopefully he can give the favourite something to think about entering the final couple of furlongs...

Of course, the rest of the field may be chasing home Bring On The Night. I don't think anyone is going to be shocked if he puts up a bold show and maybe he will just win. He hasn't been seen since finishing second in this race last year, but we all know Willie can ready one off a long break. Hopefully he may be plenty fresh enough but, if he repeats last year's effort, he sets a rather good standard, given he bumped into Coltrane that day; that one has since won at G3 and G2 level, and is now 19lbs higher than when taking this. I'm not sure there's a future Coltrane in this line up, and Bring On The Night is open to plenty of improvement also and a worthy favourite, but not a price I like diving into in these sorts of races.

Calling The Wind: 1 point each-way 10/1-12/1

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5.35 Wolferton Stakes (1m2f, Listed, 4yo+)

Preview by our own David Massey

The Wolferton looks a wide-open affair this year with bookmakers currently going 7-2 the field (4s if you’ve a Bet365 account, you lucky people). 

Saga heads them up for the King and Queen, and the Gosden/Dettori combination, so I don’t need to tell you he’s bound to be well backed on the day; if Frankie’s already got a winner or two on the card, he'll be shorter still, with bookmaker liabilities on the multis running up. Nearer the time you’ll need to consider whether Saga has simply been overbet if that scenario unfolds, in which case there will be value elsewhere. 

However, right here right now, we’ve no idea what’s going to happen and so I’m trying to find what value there is today. Saga has only won one of his ten starts to date - in itself, not a problem, as recent winning form is no barrier to winning this - and his Ascot record in full reads 1628, his second coming in the Britannia here last year when he would have won with a better start. He still has to fully prove that a mile and a quarter is his trip though, and almost on that alone I’d want to try and take him on. 

The first one that caught my eye for this was Sir Michael Stoute’s Solid Stone, purely as I was at Sandown on Brigadier Gerard night and to my eyes he looked badly in need of his seasonal outing. He was meant to make the pace for Desert Crown that night but in truth he didn’t set much of one, the fractions to halfway not quick, and once he was headed I expected him to drop right away, given his level of fitness.

However, to my surprise, he rallied well in the closing stages to get back past Cash for third, a most promising seasonal debut. Last year he only needed the one run to put him straight before winning at Windsor on his second outing, and he then went on to finish third to Juan Elcano in this very race. He’s fully effective on the ground and at the trip, and clearly handles Ascot, so there are plenty of plus points. I’d expect Richard Kingscote to ride him forward from stall 11 - even though there are plenty of pace-pressers, front-runners are somewhat thinner on the ground - and race front rank throughout. 

At an even bigger price I’ll be risking a few shekels each-way on Checkandchallenge with Skybet’s 5 places each-way. He’s yet to even try ten furlongs but the pedigree - he’s a half brother to White Shaheen, who was a winner at 12f, amongst others - gives hope and so do the visuals, often getting a little outpaced in his races before staying on at one pace again. He’s been very highly tried in Group 1 and Group 2 company on his last four starts, taking on the likes of Modern Games and Bayside Boy, beaten only 2½l in the QEII last year  and he’ll be one that’s ridden cold out back with Atzeni looking for the gaps late. I’m expecting prices north of 25-1 tomorrow and at that point, he’ll be getting a few of my hard-earned quids. 

 

6.10 Copper Horse Stakes (1m6f, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

Before going through the field in a race like this I prefer to review potential draw and pace biases so that I can upgrade/downgrade each runner as I look at them, based on how advantaged/disadvantaged they are likely to be.

You don’t get too many big field races over this marathon distance at Ascot unfortunately and this race itself has only had three previous renewals so I’m not going to get overly attached to any pace or draw data due to the small sample size.

From the data we do have, prominent racers enjoy a fair sized advantage with mid-division next best. Extreme rides (either on the pace or held up) seem disadvantaged. There only seems to be one habitual front runner in this field, although a few others have made the running on just one of their most recent starts. I think this race will be run at no more than an even gallop which won’t suit those held up or the ‘grinders’, it will suit those near the pace and those with a relative turn of foot at these distances.

As for the draw, again due to the limited sample size I’m taking these figures with a slight pinch of salt but the higher draws have struggled on what limited evidence there is.

Rolling three stall average percentage of rivals beaten at the Copper Horse Handicap distance

Rolling three stall average percentage of rivals beaten at the Copper Horse Handicap distance



I’m using some fairly broad parameters to increase the sample size but judging by this PRB3 data I’d rather be on a horse drawn in single figures than double figures.

There will be plenty of interest in this race due to the inclusion of Vauban in the field. Willie Mullins’ 2022 Triumph Hurdle winner is a fascinating contender and you’d have to assume he’s well in here off a flat rating of 101 given his hurdle rating is 160.

Mullins also has the second favourite in this race for good measure in the form of Absurde. How much he has in hand from a mark of 101 completely depends on how much he’s improved for the switch to Mullins from his previous trainer in France and it’s just speculation really.

I can never really be a backer of these Mullins horses in Royal Ascot handicaps. So many of them run well but they are nearly always very short, most of them are unproven on fast ground when they come here and it’s pure guesswork as to how well handicapped they are .

My general approach is just to hope they get beaten, be it on merit or by luck, and look for some each way value against them. Vauban may well win but I think you’ll find better 7/4 shots at Thirsk or Ripon this week (amongst other places).

The Joseph O’Brien-trained Point King is probably the most likely front runner and, although he has a ‘bad’ draw in 16, by going forward he could easily negate that. He’s fairly unexposed but has been showing his hand to the handicapper by running well in Listed races around this distance so I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him.

The conjecture continues with Charlie Appleby’s Ruling Dynasty, who makes his handicap debut after winning a 12f novice contest on his only run this season. He’s by far the least exposed in the field having had just three runs but his form last season at least is nothing special. On his second career start he beat a now 69-rated rival off level weights by less than 2 lengths. He was impressive last time out at Haydock, stepped up in trip, but it’s almost impossible to determine the strength of that form. Out of principle I’m against anything making a handicap debut off 97 in a race like this, especially a horse by Night Of Thunder, a sire who has had limited success beyond 12f.

I would have been quite interested in a small each way bet on Raymond Tusk given he’s generally available at 66/1 and has run several good races here before. He’s drawn really wide and I can’t understand how the handicapper has put him up 2lbs for finishing a well beaten 3rd last time out so I’m swerving him.

If Ascot really caught the thunder showers I’d be keen on Postileo but I’m not sure he’s as well handicapped on faster ground as he is in softer conditions. Meanwhile Cemhaan is a horse I’ve followed for some time and conditions are ideal for him but he’s surely badly handicapped now having gone up 9lbs for winning easily last time when getting a very soft lead on a day when Kempton was really favouring front runners.

On the assumption of fast ground there are two horses I’d consider as possible bets…

The best piece of flat form from any of these runners has to be finishing 2nd (beaten a neck) in the 2020 St Leger and we have the opportunity to back that runner, Berkshire Rocco, off a mark of 99 here. Not only that, he’s finished 2nd in a Group 3 over this course and distance and won a Listed race over it.

Having missed most of last season through injury, he hasn’t quite returned the same horse that was rated 116 at his peak but he has generally been running well at his new level. That was at least the case over the winter but on the face of it he’s run below par on both runs since a 58 day break. He was definitely below par on All Weather Finals Day at Newcastle, however his last run, when 10th beaten 7 lengths in a handicap at Newmarket, is better than it first looks. The 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 11th have all come out and won since and Andrew Balding is adamant he wants better ground, so that run can probably be upgraded a fair bit given it took place on soft turf.

He’s drawn a little wider than seems ideal (11) but he should be well placed if he races prominently, as he often does. Decent ground should suit him perfectly and it’s been almost two years since he ran on good or better ground so we could see an immediate improvement from him based on underfoot conditions.

I’ve also got some interest in another runner who missed most of last season and that’s Aaddeey. He’s been a particularly frustrating horse for me to follow as I was convinced he was very well handicapped off marks around 100 in 2021 due to several good runs in warm races but I was also convinced he wanted good ground. He’s won twice since then on soft ground!

I do think he might be even better on top of the ground though and, after losing his form in his final two runs last season for Simon & Ed Crisford, he’s back this season for Archie Watson. That stable switch, and a wind op, seemed to get him back to form last time out as he won pretty cosily at Ripon. He had the run of the race that day and it wasn’t a particularly strong event but he’s at least proved his well being again, even if it’s cost him a 4lb rise.

He’s only gone this far once before and didn’t seem to quite get home but that was in soft ground and a few other things didn’t go his way that day so whilst the jury is still out on his stamina, it’s certainly not as though he definitely doesn’t stay. He used to be held up for previous connections but I’d be quite happy to see him track the pace this time from his lowish draw. If he does that it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s one of the runners going best turning for home.

This race looks a lot tougher than previous renewals due to several unknowns but I do think there is a little bit of value in backing both Aaddeey and Berkshire Rocco each way given they are both generally available at 16/1 (bigger in places) at the time of writing. I couldn’t be massively confident though so I could only advise very small stakes on this one.

Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits. You can join my private service for just £1 if you click here.Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

 

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And so endeth a bumper yomp through the form of day one of Royal Ascot 2023. For the first time this week, my thanks go to the team of smart judges who have each taken a turn at the wheel across the seven races. They'll all be back for Day Two, as will I. Let's get this party started!

Matt

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