As promised, we've added a couple more new bits to Geegeez Gold - with plenty more to follow in the coming weeks.
Today, I'm pleased to share with you improved pace granularity and the addition of the HCAP/ALL filter on Report Angles. Let's deal with the latter first.
Report Angles: Handicap Only option
On a number of Gold reports, including Trainer and Jockey Statistics, Trainer/Jockey Combo, and Trainer and Sire Snippets, it is possible for a user to select the data based on ALL races or handicaps (HCAP) only. Well, by surprisingly (to me, at least!) popular demand, we've added these filters to the new Report Angles feature.
PLEASE NOTE: We're aware of a problem with the Trainer Snippets HCAP options on Report Angles, and working to fix that. For now, please leave them set to ALL if you you use Trainer Snippets within Report Angles.
It looks like this:
On selected reports, you can now opt to view Angles data for handicaps only, or for all races
Once you've set the angles up - don't forget to save them - you'll be able to see your chosen parameters both in your Report Angles report, and on the racecards themselves, as follows:
If you've selected HCAP on the settings page, you'll only see handicap race data on your Report Angles
Report Angles appear inline on the selected race types
Our pace information is incredibly instructive for understanding how a race will be run. The pace maps are rarely far from what comes to pass and are a must for the serious punter. But, when it comes to understanding how the shape of today's race overlays onto history, we had hitherto adopted a 'one size fits all' approach.
That is, we lumped all races over a given course and distance combination together, regardless of whether there were five or fifteen runners; or the going was firm or heavy. Clearly that's a little too imprecise to be optimal, so we've addressed it.
From today, we have implemented going and field size ranges to better capture today's race shape against its historical precursors. The short video below explains all:
There is plenty more in the pipeline, and I look forward to sharing it with you soon.
p.s. if you have any issues with getting the new elements to work, please do consult this FAQ before contacting our support. Obviously, if you've done that and are still having problems, let us know!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/pacedropdowns.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2018-01-09 14:22:502018-01-10 08:55:36More New Bits on Gold: Pace Granularity
After a quiet spell, we're ready to kick things up a notch both in terms of editorial and our premium racing form provision. In today's post, I'd like to share with you what's coming next to Geegeez Gold...
We made a couple of very small changes yesterday to:
- include official ratings on full results
- publish the winning time on full results
- add Report Angles to the report dropdown
Here's how those all look:
In the next fortnight
Meanwhile, being put through its paces on test as I speak are a couple of more meaningful changes.
HCAP option on Report Angles
The first of them is the addition of a HCAP option to Report Angles. When we released Report Angles a month or so ago, the first response was 'Wow!' - after we got over a couple of teething issues, that is. The second response was, "Can you add a handicap only filter, please?".
Well, we're here to bring you the stuff you want, so yes, we heard you and I'm happy to say this will be live in the near future. It's already up on my test setup, as you can see from the below image:
We've added 'Handicap only' filters to Report Angles in line with the individual reports
Pace tab: enhanced focus
The second enhancement is to the Pace tab. "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king" has been our motto on this front to date. That is to say that, because nobody else is doing anything meaningful on pace (which, incidentally, is the singlemost under-rated element of form study in this country, in my view), our Pace content stands apart at making it easy to see how a race will likely pan out.
But... it's been an irritant to me for some time that, for instance, the historical pace profile of a big field fast ground race may very well not be the same as for a small field soft ground race over the same course and distance.
So we've addressed that, by adding going and field size dropdowns to the Pace tab.
This is Chelmsford's 8.15 race tonight, a 7f contest between eight runners. As you can see from the top part of the image - with all going and all field sizes selected - it has been advantageous to be on the lead. Indeed, 21% of winners have raced that way for a profit of £34 to a £1 level stake.
But look at the bottom part, where we focus on standard going (which is most of the runs, of course) but also on a more targeted runner range of seven to ten. Now we can see that those horse which led have a 28% win rate and a £1 level stake profit of £73.71.
Hopefully you can see how this granularity will be useful. I'm very excited about sharing it!
[One caveat is that it will often produce small sample sizes. That's why we have the dropdowns so users can extend the ranges to get a more meaningful sample.]
Field size has a major bearing on run style effectiveness
Next six weeks or so
A little further down the line we have still more planned. I don't want to go into too much detail yet, mainly because I haven't got screenshots to show you.
But there are a couple of extra reports (class move, and SR differential) which will be interesting.
We're also looking at an Instant Expert 2.0, which will allow users to filter by Handicap/All Races, and by different time periods.
And we'll be creating some filters on the racecard menu, so you can see those races which interest you. Not interest in small field races? Only want handicaps to display? Want to exclude Irish, or UK racing? Only interested in sprints? Just want the better class stuff? You'll be able to filter by all of these things, and have your racecard menu presented to you... very soon.
Next three to six months
Looking further down the line we're working on making Geegeez Gold less prescriptive and more in line with what you want to see. We'll be enabling you to create and save angles in the Query Tool; and you'll be able to see angle qualifiers right within the racecard.
For those short on time, we're also working on a Bet Finder feature. This will identify horses running today that meet certain fixed criteria outlined by you.
Lots of exciting developments in the pipeline, and I hope they'll provide you with even more of an edge over your fellow punters.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/chelmo_pace_830x320.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2018-01-04 10:54:282018-01-04 10:54:28New Gold Features Coming Soon in 2018...
Today, I'm pleased to introduce you to the latest Geegeez Gold feature, Report Angles.
As part of our commitment to extend greater flexibility and configurability to Gold users - in plain English, to let you do more of what you want to do! - we've created an aggregator for all reports. You can set it up as you wish, or not at all if that's your wish.
More details are in this video, and in the article beneath.
N.B. All angles are turned OFF by default. Read/watch on to discover how to turn them ON.
Report Angles: Overview
Report Angles highlight content from Gold’s existing set of reports against today’s runners as displayed on the racecards.
That is, for each report, there are now – as of December 2017 – a group of pre-set parameters which, when matched, will be flagged against a runner on the racecard.
Using the example from above, the Trainer Statistics report might have the following pre-set parameters for its Type 1 (i.e. 14 Day Form) sub-report:
Where a runner satisfies those criteria, it is highlighted on the racecard as such. There will be pre-sets for every report sub-type, e.g. Trainer Stats report will have four pre-sets, one each for 14 Day, 30 Day, Course 1 Year, and Course 5 Year.
Users will be able to select any or all of the pre-sets to be displayed on their racecard views. They will also be able to edit or restore to default the pre-sets. However, a user may only have one custom view of each report sub-type.
Report Angles are automatically built into the ‘My Report Angles Settings’ page. Users have the ability to activate, deactivate, amend or restore to default each Report Angle. They cannot create new Report Angles, however.
Report Angles: My Settings
Users can select, de-select, amend and/or reset the Report Angles configuration on the My Report Angles Settings page. However, users cannot create or delete Report Angles, though they can disable/enable them.
The Report Angles Settings page displays the report titles (i.e. TJ Combo, etc) on the left-hand side, with settings displayed for the selected report sub-types (e.g. 14 Day, 30 Day, Course 365 Day, Course 5 Year).
For each report/type combination, there are editable parameters as per that report’s individual report page. For example, below are the editable parameters for four sub-types of TJ Combo report:
N.B. Different reports have different parameters – users are advised to check each one individually, at least the first time they configure the settings.
At the bottom of the screen are three blue bars. The first, “Save Settings”, enables a user to save any changes made within the selected report.
The second, “Reset Defaults”, reverts the selected report to the ‘factory settings’. The third, “Reset All Defaults”, reverts all reports and sub-types back to their default settings.
N.B. These defaults are NOT optimal. Rather, they are presented as a balance between limited data and too much data appearing in the report. Users are encouraged to experiment with the settings to find the appropriate volume of report output.
Each report sub-type has a tick box next to its name. Selecting/de-selecting the ticks will include/exclude a sub-type from the report and racecard view.
Clicking the on/off buttons top RIGHT will select/de-select all tick boxes for a report.
Clicking the on/off buttons top LEFT will select/de-select all tick boxes for ALL reports.
Report Angles: The Report
Once a user has selected and/or activated report angles and parameters, all qualifying runners will appear on a report on the My Report Angles screen. The report looks like this:
Each row in the report table is clickable, and will open the race in question in a new window. All columns are sortable to enable users to configure the view to suit personal taste.
Report Angles: Racecard Inline
The racecard has been updated with a new ‘report’ icon, containing a numerical indication of the number of angles matched. Clicking the icon will reveal inline the qualifying Report Angles, as in the below example.
There is also a new icon with a ? in the top icon menu. Clicking this icon will open Report Angles in the card for all runners. Clicking again will close them.
Getting Started with Report Angles
By default, all Report Angles are switched off. To turn them all on, use the 'ALL On' button top left on the Report Angles Settings page. Alternatively, and preferably, take a few minutes to set the Angles up as you would have them.
The default settings, when all Report Angles are switched on, can be seen in the below table.
Report Angles are intended as an aid to successful betting; they are not to be used as an end in themselves. That is to say, Report Angles may highlight interesting elements about certain runners but, as with all other approaches, a more holistic consideration of the puzzle will always yield better results.
Good luck, and I hope you enjoy this new feature as much as I have been during the testing stage.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/reportangles830x320.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2017-12-13 17:35:362017-12-14 10:38:22New to Gold: Report Angles
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/video5alltogether.png6871321Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2017-11-16 22:36:372017-11-17 09:13:03Winter Gold Day 5: Bringing It All Together
In the first of five special features looking in detail at Geegeez Gold this week, I introduce an overview of the site. It includes tips, reports, tools, and a couple of very smart under-the-radar trainers to follow!
Click the video to start watching... (and 'square' icon bottom right of video to go full screen)
SPECIAL OFFER: SIX MONTHS GOLD, ONE TIME PAYMENT (NO RECURRING CHARGES)
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Faugheen-1.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2017-11-13 12:15:572017-11-13 12:20:15Winter Gold: Day 1
After Friday's report dissection - good conceptual intel, awful results! - I'm back with another video blast for Saturday's Ascot card. It's a really decent meeting, and I'll probably have retire in disgrace if I draw a blank. Gulp.
Anyway, with hopefully some more 'how to' insight as well as perhaps a chicken dinner or two, here's the video.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/royalascot2017_gates.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2017-10-06 21:59:382017-10-06 21:59:38Saturday Racing Video Preview
I've recorded another video. In it, I walk through the Geegeez Gold reports in search of some Friday winners. There are horses of interest - from shorties to 33/1 pokes - throughout the recording.
It's long. Just over an hour in fact. But it may well be worth the time, if you can spare it.
The video is more about the general 'how' and 'why' rather than Friday's specific 'what' and/or 'who', if that makes sense. Either way, I hope you get something from it. You can make the video bigger by clicking the square icon in the bottom right corner.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/RotD_Pace_061017.png465834Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2017-10-05 23:37:512017-10-06 09:31:23[VIDEO] A look at Friday's reports...
The whole point of betting on horses - betting on anything - is being able to accurately predict what will happen in the future. The more 'yesterday' information we have, the better able we are to forecast 'tomorrow'.
In Britain, horse racing punters were traditionally in the dark: for years, there was nothing more informative (ahem) than the little alphanumeric sextet of recent finishing positions to the left of a horse's name. 'Professionals' bought the Sporting Life and, more recently, Racing Post. This gave them a huge leg up on other newspaper readers, but was still seriously deficient in terms of projecting what might actually happen in a race.
The advent of the internet has, slowly it must be said, changed things; finally, punters are able to access a raft of insightful data which genuinely can give them the edge over the bookmakers. This edge is greatest in the early markets, where many of the horse race odds lines are algorithmically constructed: Deep Blue versus Kasparov this is not. The software creating the early markets is not exactly sophisticated, which means we don't need to be chess grandmasters to find the ricks.
Looking at past form cycles and profiles - that is, when a horse comes into form and under what conditions - is a blind spot in the algos, which focus too heavily on recent form. The starting price markets are much more efficient of course, but nobody bets SP, do they? Do they?!!
One of the last major vestiges of unpublished form, in Britain and Ireland at least, is pace. Pace can mean different things: it can be precise, by virtue of sectional times; or it can be more general, defining a horse's run style. In most of the established racing betting nations - Hong Kong, Japan, US - sectional times are ubiquitous. Commentators are able to quantify the speed of the horses in-running by a split time stopwatch in the corner of the screen.
Here, we have no such aides - the usual "who's going to pay for it?" arguments - but what we do have, and more so than in many of the aforementioned racing jurisdictions, are detailed in-running comments. These allow a bettor to work through past performances and develop a picture in the mind's eye of each horse's run style. It's laborious, for sure, and I know for a fact that most jockeys riding in Britain gather their understanding of how the races they're riding in will unfurl in this manner. Until now...
Geegeez Gold has had pace information, in the form of a data table, for quite some time. And, yesterday, we moved things up a notch by converting the numbers into a picture: a pace map. Pictures are much easier for us humans to understand than words and numbers. Consequently, we can get the gist of something - like, for example, how a race will be run - in just a second or two when the data is presented in pictorial format.
So, welcome to Geegeez Gold's new Pace Graphic view. It's not Deep Blue, and nor was it imagined by the genius of Kasparov (it was me, actually), but it does instantly visualise how a race might be run based on the last four UK/Ire runs of the horses in it. And that means its users have a significant edge on other punters, either in time or awareness terms or, in most cases, both.
It lives in the existing PACE tab, and looks like this:
In this race, Whos De Baby looked like he'd get a clear lead. That's exactly what happened, allowing him to finish 2nd at 12/1
In this example from yesterday, Whos De Baby was predicted to be 'Probable Lone Speed', meaning he was expected to be able to set his own pace and try to make all. He very nearly did, finishing a good second at odds of 12/1.
Below is a video where I show you the what and how of the new Pace Graphic. If you're familiar with pace and how to use it in horseracing there may be little new therein. But if you're still trying to get to grips with the importance of pace, and which scenarios to look out for, you really should watch it.
Geegeez Gold continues to be committed to provided the best information for punters in the most consumable, readily understandable format, so you know more than your competition (other punters, not bookmakers) in less time.
If you're not yet a Gold subscriber, you can join us here. That page includes a link where readers who have never tried Gold before can get their first 30 days for just a pound. Thereafter, Gold is £30 per month. If you're serious about getting ahead with your horse racing betting, I don't know how else you can have this sort of a chance for less than a pound a day. Granted, I am a tiny bit biased... 😉
Good luck, and thanks for reading/watching.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/crystalball.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2017-09-12 09:07:242017-09-12 09:07:24Pace Maps: Predicting the Future Just Got Easier...
geegeez.co.uk is a pretty positive place for racing fans to hang out, and we like it that way. So don't worry, despite the headline, nothing is changing in terms of the overall ethos of the site. It's still all about the bonhomie.
But we are introducing a whole raft of negativity onto our racecards this week. Let me explain...
For a couple of years now, we've had these helpful little green form indicators that tell users when a trainer or jockey has been having a good time of it.
Spotting in form trainers and jockeys couldn't be easier
And that's all well and good when the horsemen are in flying form...
...but what about when they're not? What about when they're on the dreaded cold list? What about when we as punters need to put aside our prejudices towards favoured personnel and acknowledge that our wagering should be made elsewhere?
To this point, Gold cards have shown either good form indicators, or nothing at all.
But we're putting an end to that, starting this week. Yes, I'm delighted to unleash a swathe of negativity onto your screens. Constructive negativity if you will.
Introducing our new - you guessed it - red negative form indicators.
Gold racecards now feature both positive and negative indicators for trainers and jockeys
As with the positive indicators, it will pay to take a close look behind the numbers if you're entertaining a bet in the race; and I'd certainly never countenance punting either for or against a horse on the strength of these indicators alone. Rather, they're intended as a flavour of who's hot and who's not: in that context, they can help evaluate the price of the beast in question on more than just equine form.
There's not much more to say really. Oh, for those keen to understand how a handler or rider gets a mark, below is the full list (taken, of course, from our comprehensive user guide here)...
There are four symbols for each of positive and negative, and they align to the four inline reports for trainer and jockey form, as follows:
14 – 5+ runs in last 14 days, 20%+ win OR 51%+ place 30 – 10+ runs in last 30 days, 20%+ win OR 51%+ place C1 – 10+ runs at the track in last 365 days, 20%+ win OR 51%+ place C5 - 25+ runs at the track in the last five years, 15%+ win
14 – 10+ runs in last 14 days, 4% or less win strike rate, OR 14% or less place SR 30 – 20+ runs in last 30 days, 4% or less win strike rate, OR 14% or less place SR C1 – 15+ runs at course in last year, 4% or less win strike rate, OR 14% or less place SR C5 - 25+ runs at course in last five years, 4% or less win strike rate
NOTE: It is perfectly possible for a trainer or jockey to have a combination of good recent and poor long term form, or vice versa!
That's it for this update. Nothing earth-shattering, but another little helping hand in shortcutting the form reading process and giving Geegeez Gold subscribers the leg up on the betting masses. You're either with us or, well, you know...
It's the eve of the two concurrent midsummer 'G' Festivals, Glorious Goodwood on the rolling Sussex Downs and Galway's marathon week-long session in the west or Ireland. To emerge victorious from festival meetings at such quintessentially quirky configurations as these requires more than a 'mere' understanding of the form. Preparation for those serious about the week wil start with an awareness of the layouts of the circuits and the implications on race shape.
Draw is rarely as simple - and occasionally not as complicated - as the pundits will tell you in their one line summaries. Let's review the courses.
These are Goodwood's helter-skelter pistes:
If you're confused, you'll not be alone. There is a tight right-hand loop, and a straight of a little shy of half a mile from which point the run in is pretty much all downhill - having been largely uphill to the turn.
Goodwood is a front-runner's track for a couple of reasons. Firstly, when horses get to the turn into the straight, they tend to fan wide, giving up ground, just at the moment the pacemaking railer is stealing a length or two. Secondly, horses held up for a later run often get caught in a pocket, with the far rail of the home straight cambering away from the grandstands.
Indeed, only one horse with an actual draw (i.e. number of stalls from the rail, after accounting for non-runners) higher than 13 in a mile handicap has managed to win at Goodwood since 2009. 107 tried. [Laa Rayb, the 2009 Totesport Mile winner, had an advertised draw of 15, but in fact broke 13 from the rail due to two non-runners inside him; it was Inside Story, from stall 16 of 16, who overcame the near impossible in two months prior to Laa Rayb's more famous, but marginally less challenging, exploits].
The place to be, to a lesser or greater degree, is low and front rank, from seven furlongs to a mile. And yet... over nine furlongs, the bias shifts to high drawn horses who are waited with.
Wait. What?! How can the whole draw/pace bias be shifted on its head?
A theory, and only that, is that at this rarely raced intermediate distance - neither a mile nor a mile and a quarter - that starts with a stiff uphill climb, milers race too freely and run out of juice while ten furlong horses get outpaced before staying on late. As convoluted as it sounds, it may just be credible!
In handicaps over ten furlongs, in fields of 14+ runners (the race type and field size used for all of the above commentary), there seems little to no bias. Here they travel uphill for slightly longer, then take the outer loop - with its sharp top bend - before freewheeling down five furlongs or so of home straight. There is more time for jockeys to manouevre their horses to where they want them, and it seems a fairer track.
Be warned, though, with rain forecast, the bias is less pronounced on going softer than good...
Meanwhile, across the Irish Sea in Galway, there is a race for every racehorse. The programme covers the whole gamut from two year old maidens to exposed handicap chasers. Of course, we'll focus our attention on the flat handicaps. The layout is a little more straightforward here: a little, though not much...
Shaped like a diamond, features of the mile and a quarter Galway oval are sharp turns, undulations, and a stiff uphill quarter-mile run to the finish line. There is a shortish run from the seven furlong start to the first of two bends, both of which require wider drawn runners to either take back and wait or risk conceding ground on the turns.
Here is a snapshot of how draw and pace impacts the ability of horses to make the frame in Galway 14+ runner seven furlong handicaps.
High draws inconvenienced over 7f
But take a look at the draw and run style in combination for some real takeaways:
Galway 7f races: Leaders win from anywhere, inside hold up types fare very poorly
The first chart shows a strong linear correlation between stall position and ability to make the frame; but it is the heat map which interests more.
This is showing Actual vs Expected (see A/E in the dropdown top right). As you'll see on the right hand side, horses that can get to the front outperform market expectation regardless of stall position. We then have a nice gradation of colour from dark green (led) through amber (low mid div and middle prominent) to red (pretty much everything else). Except...
Look at the bottom left square - horses draw high and held up. On a reasonable sample of 66 runners (seven wins, 13 places) these waited-with types have fared a lot better than the betting public expected. This is most likely due to a perception that their draw cannot be overcome; but that inflates the available odds. And, when there is too much pace on the front end, those ridden more patiently (and having to travel less wide due to the strung out nature of fields in such a context) can skulk through to pick up the pieces.
Also noteworthy is the lamentable performance of low drawn hold up horses. Such runners are 0 from 28, three places, in 14+ runner handicaps here since 2009. Those who race mid-pack are 1 from 64, 11 places (17% place rate), and can also generally be discounted.
Meanwhile, over a mile and half a furlong, the main note regards hold up horses. These slow starters tend to be too late finishers, collectively recording a lamentable four wins from 181 runs in handicap fields of 14+. As you can see, it doesn't matter where they're berthed either. Alongside the 2.2% win strike rate is a 12.7% place record, so the message is clear: look elsewhere.
Held up over a mile in a big field Galway handicap? Might as well go home...
Keep these specific pointers in mind and you'll have a leg up on the vast majority of punters at next week's 'G' Festivals. And if you want this kind of intel for all flat courses, distances, goings, field sizes and race types, there is only one place to get it: Geegeez Gold's Draw Analyser Tool. If you're not a Gold subscriber, you can find out more about Draw Analyser, and the rest of our form book and tool kit, here.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/goodwoodglorious.png320829Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2017-07-28 12:31:392017-07-28 12:31:39Draw Biases at Galway and Glorious Goodwood?
This lad's lowly win triggered a very profitable idea...
Sometimes it's just staring you in the face. A little bit of digging is often all it takes to turn a notion into a profitable punting angle, and today I offer you three: something old, something new, and something 'upcycled'.
Let's start, like me, with the old...
Irish Raiders Flat System
I had a bit of time off for good(ish) behaviour yesterday and, of course, I spent it wisely, watching moderate racing from three summer jumps meetings... Whilst viewing, in an unusually quiet Casa Bisogno, two profit-pulling angles came to mind. The first relates, as the heading suggests, to Irish raiders on English shores; the second follows in the ensuing section.
Honestly, this is so remarkably simple that it really shouldn't be so effective. But it is.
As I noticed the line of blue yesterday morning for an Irish horse with no form called Scripturient, I thought, "I've seen this film before" and backed it blindly - a whole tenner - at 6/1. A few hours later Gavin Cromwell's shipper was doing for the English cavaliers in a style reminiscent of his presumed forefather, Oliver. Scripturient won, as he pleased, at 5/2.
Right, said I, with rare time to mull, let's have a look at these no form raiders. Here's what I discovered...
Backing all Irish runners in UK races that had run in Ireland last time out would have lost about 15% of stakes, at starting price. That's already remarkable given how many of them truncate markedly in price; and I conjecture that taking an early price, Best Odds Guaranteed, would likely cover that negative equity at SP.
But it makes sense that those which win are fancied to run well: after all, it's a fair old way to travel, across the deep, just for the weather (even if it is better here 😉 ). Setting the odds bar at 20/1 is pretty liberal, but it serves to throw out a whole load of bathwater and not too much baby, if you catch my drift.
Incredibly, we are now at less than 5% losses at starting price, on a sample of over 3100 runners since 2008. At starting price! The returns at Betfair Starting Price (BSP) are around 200 points. At early BOG prices, yield is surely higher.
Thus, having watched another Irish-trained summer jumper bolt up in Britain, I expected that this would be the pattern; but, in fact, that wasn't the case. The Irish National Hunt raiders did fare better in the summer than the rest of the year (excluding March, skewed by Ireland's ongoing domination of Cheltenham Festival handicaps from a punting perspective), but not in a manner that your bank manager (or, more likely, your peer group) would approve.
No, it's the flat horses which are most consistently bankable.
Irish flat runners in UK are very insteresting propositions
An ROI of almost 30% at starting price on a sample which cannot be skewed by a couple of massive priced outsiders due to the 20/1 cutoff is faintly ridiculous. At BSP or early BOG prices, you can add another hundred points or more to that bottom line. And betting early it is easy enough to move the negligible all weather deficit into the profit column, so I'd be happy to punt those as well.
Here's how this looks, then:
- UK flat (turf or all weather) handicaps
- Trained in Ireland, and ran in Ireland last time out
- 20/1 or shorter
Focus on the flat with Irish handicap raiders
The logic supports the ledger: most materially it is a long (expensive) journey for a runner without a chance; but also plenty of Irish trainers travel in search of better ground and/or easier opportunities. The volume of racing in Britain, allied to the relative ability level of much of it, facilitates these ambushes.
Here is the yearly breakdown:
Pretty consistent, though note higher win %/lower P/L at SP this year
It's a solid and consistent view. It is of course worth pointing out that 2017 has seen a higher win (and place) percentage than previously, but a negative ROI. Whilst there is almost certainly an element of the market finally cottoning on, it should continue to be the case that the early markets afford enough latitude to accommodate this differential. Time will tell on that score...
For what it's worth - don't judge the approach on this, whether results are good or bad - today's quartet of qualifiers are:
3.00 Ayr: Duncan Of Scotland
5.00 Ayr: Bell Of The Ball / Ruth Melody
8.10 Wolverhamption: Love To Rock
If the Irish raiders system above is something old, how about something new?
Regular readers will know of my keenness to follow trainers, and specifically to understand in which micro-climates they deliberately set out to shine. I'm always looking out for new trainers who might be profitable to follow before the herd catch up.
The latest name to note in that sphere is 26-year-old Olly Murphy. Murphy is the son of trainer Anabel and bloodstock agent Aiden, and was assistant trainer to Gordon Elliott for four years. He has, then, a peerless schooling for one of such relative youth.
Of course, be that as it may, the proof of the pudding is always in the eating.
Since Murphy Jr. obtained his license he has saddled ten runners. Eight of them have finished first or second; four of them have won, and it should have been five but for an ultra-rare misjudged ride by the champion jockey aboard Varene De Vauzelle yesterday, foiling a treble for the trainer (and, naturally, the only win wager I struck on the three).
Olly Murphy has made a blistering start to his training career
If the likes of Harry Fry and Ben Pauling - both young assistants to champion trainers before going solo - are any blueprint, the market will very quickly react to Olly's runners in low grade events. However, they may retain a blind spot in better class heats and/or when Murphy's team face up against more established trainers.
One thing is for sure: this is a team worth noting with anything they run right now.
One other thing: Olly bought a certain The Geegeez Geegee at the sales recently and it will be interesting to see what he can do with our former inmate.
Oh, and one other other thing: OM runs Sevilla in the 7.10 Wolverhampton tonight.
'Upcycling' Race of the Day
Something old, something new, something borrowed... or in this case, something re-imagined. Steve Oliver has been posting his Race of the Day for bang on a year now, and in that time it has helped many a newcomer - and plenty of more established visitors - get to grips with some of the tools, views and reports available on site.
It was never intended to be a tipping piece, and as such never picked out a singular horse. Rather, the idea was to showcase the info available and help readers to think about how to deploy the data.
In truth, with Race of the Day v2.0 - which makes its debut today - little has changed. But I have offered Steve the latitude to lead with a particular horse, and to reveal more of the toolkit in making a case for his spotlighted beast.
The purpose of Race of the Day is still to illustrate what can be gleaned about a race, and it will remain in the free part of the site. It is not strictly intended as a tipping piece and we will not keep score. Again, the primary purpose is 'edutainment' (if you'll pardon such a BS Bingo word).
Feel free to read Race of the Day, to back the highlighted horse, to back something else that stands out in the tools, or to ignore completely. But please do understand its main objective.
Here at geegeez.co.uk we have a premium service called Geegeez Gold. This post is dedicated to trying answer as many of the most frequently asked questions as I can think of. If I've missed one, either add a comment below or contact me and we'll add it in. Straight in, then, with the most obvious...
Q. What is Geegeez Gold?
A. Gold is a comprehensive service for people who bet on British and Irish racing. It includes racecards, form tools, reports, tipping, a tracker, query tools, and more besides. If you bet on racing in Ireland or the UK, Gold has something to help you do it better, regardless of how you bet.
Q. How do I join Geegeez Gold?
A. You can find out more, and join Geegeez Gold here. If you've never tried Gold before, you will be entitled to a trial of the service so that you can see if it works for the way you bet.
Q. What happens at the end of my Gold trial?
A. Once your trial finishes, you will automatically be billed for the subscription option (monthly or annual) you selected. You may cancel at any time, including during your trial, and the subscription rate you sign up at will be the rate at which you're locked in for as long as you remain a subscriber, regardless of future price rises.
Q. What if I forget to cancel?
A. It happens. We're all busy. If you forget to cancel during your trial period, contact us within the first month of full subscription and we'll arrange a refund of your payment (assuming you haven't been using the service, of course).
Q. Where do I start with Geegeez Gold?
A. Gold isa comprehensive package. It's designed that way. For some, it can be difficult to know where to start. The answer is different for everyone. The most sensible place to start is to pick up where you left off with whichever service you previously used.
For example, if you like to receive tips, then start with Stat of the Day, posted on site around 6pm each night before the next day's racing. Then check out the tipping threads in the forum.
If you're more interested in form, check out our racecards - and all of the content hiding behind the icons. Then take a look at the tools - Instant Expert, Draw and Pace, as well as Full Form Filter.
Or if you're just looking for a couple of interesting horses, use the reports. The Shortlist is a simple one with which to get started, but the real 'juice' can be found reports like Trainer/Jockey Combo, Handicap 1st Time, and Trainer Change reports (amongst others).
The important thing is to take your time, and not to try to 'reinvent yourself' overnight. See how we have enhanced the things you already do/use when betting, and build from there.
Q. Is there any training for Geegeez Gold?
A. Yes! We have a range of Gold tutorials in your My Geegeez area. Also there, you'll find a 'READ THIS FIRST' link. Obviously, I recommend you read that first!
Then, make sure you check out the User Guide, also linked from My Geegeez. That's a big document these days so I'm not expecting that anyone will read it from cover to cover; but if you're using a new feature, flick to the relevant section to ensure you're 'doing it right' and that you're not missing anything.
Finally, we have our Gold Playbook. This is a series of videos and blog posts showing specific strategies and tactics for using various elements of the Gold toolkit. Oh, and I write on the blog every few days with further pointers.
Again, take your time with Gold. "Only fools rush in", as Elvis once wonderfully warbled. There's no rush.
Q. What if I get stuck?
A. If you've checked out the various help features and/or you don't know where to look for an answer, drop us a line! Chris, Steve and myself are always happy to help people get the best out of Geegeez Gold. And, unlike some faceless racing bureaucracies, we're real people who really care about your racing and betting enjoyment and success. So do get in touch whenever you need to. Our contact link is here.
Q. Can I join in on the forum?
A. Please do! We welcome new users introducing themselves and getting as engaged as they wish on our Gold subscribers' only forum. We have just two simple rules, to which we expect everybody to adhere: no pitch, and no bitch. So please don't be selling stuff (yours or someone else's) and please be nice.
Happily, everybody on our forum aligns with those basic principles which makes it a pretty friendly place to hang out. There is also some excellent tipping going on there, and some brilliant ideas and angles being explored. We'd welcome your involvement. Here's the forum link, which can also be found from the top (red) menu bar.
Q. What else do I need to know about Geegeez Gold?
A. geegeez.co.uk is an independently run site, designed and built by racing bettors for racing bettors. All of the writers and developers, and the creator, bet daily on horse racing. As such, we 'get' what people want. (We also get that because I regularly survey subscribers asking how we can add more value).
We don't have the mega brand of the big boys, but nor have we sold our souls to bookmakers. This is a site where punters win, as simple as that. Our tips are winning tips, where subscribers can actually get on at the prices; our ratings work, because they're not so over-exposed as to be factored into the market as soon as they're published; our tools look at form differently - and more deeply - providing insights not available to the market as a whole.
We do things differently at Geegeez. We do things better.
And we're not going anywhere. geegeez.co.uk has been online since 2008, and has over 25,000 email and website subscribers. The number of Gold subscribers is growing by the week as word is getting out about the superior features. I'm very proud of the community feel at geegeez.co.uk, and of the 'best in breed' product we've built for people, like you, who bet on British and Irish racing.
When you join us, you are becoming part of something worth being a part of. Now that's refreshing, wouldn't you say? 😉
Q. Help! My question hasn't been answered!
A. No problemo. I've tried to cover just a few of the high level questions in this post. There will be many more I've not answered. Please leave a comment and/or drop us a line if you need another question answering - we're here to help.
For now, thanks for taking time to read this page, and good luck.