Monday Musings: A flip flopping title race? geegeez.co.uk

Last week I said something ill-advised, writes Tony Stafford. What’s strange about that you ask? I put it down to my infrequent acquisition of the tangible paper version of the Racing Post. When it was my first act every morning, even before the long-discarded and much-lamented bacon sandwich, I quickly turned to the stats and particularly the trainers’ tables.

Having chanced upon one at Goodwood, I noticed how far Charlie Appleby had stretched clear in his attempt to back up last year’s first title. No sooner had my comments hit the web site last Monday, I chanced a look at the online paper and noticed the lead had shrunk, hardly surprising in retrospect given the flurry of winners that flow every week it seems from Somerville Lodge.

Partly to purge my guilt at such sloppy work, I vowed to get the latest possible state of play and was somewhat surprised to discover that three trainers are within £1,000,000 of the Godolphin maestro as we went into the three days that lead into the four-day York August meeting.

Monday morning will reveal how many horses will be taking on the William Haggas 2-5 shot, and the world’s highest rated racehorse, Baaeed, going for his tenth unbeaten career run in the Juddmonte International on Wednesday.

Eight were in at the latest acceptance and these include two other Haggas nominees, Alenquer and Dubai Honour. All bar one of the remaining quintet is trained from stables in the top five. This year, with barely half the prizemoney haul of Appleby, Aidan O’Brien is still in fifth, but his pair are both 33/1 chances, along with recent York Group 2 winner Sir Busker, poised to pick up another chunk of change for trainer William Knight who would not mind a withdrawal or two this morning.

As Monday morning is upon us, Charlie is on £4,055,331; Haggas £3,643,155; John and Thady Gosden – John won the three previous titles with only moral rather than official help from his son – has £3,166,384 and Andrew Balding £3,006,850.

The first observation is that Haggas need only win with Baaeed not only to claw back the deficit in one go – the Juddmonte carries a first prize of £567,000, the most valuable of the 28 races of the week – but move some way clear.

That eventuality is not lost on Appleby who has Irish 2.000 Guineas winner and Newmarket 2,000 runner-up Native Trail in the race. He is third favourite behind the Gosdens’ Mishriff, who will be aiming to restore his reputation after his weaker than expected finish when third to Pyledriver and Torquator Tasso in the King George three weekends ago.

That race was even more notable for the abject flops of the two star three-year-olds in the field: Irish Derby winner Westover and Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn. Yesterday at Deauville, Coroebus, denied a run at the last minute behind Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood – stablemate Modern Games stepped in to land the £215k consolation spot that day – was a weakening fifth as the Gosdens’ filly Inspiral bounced back under Frankie Dettori to win the Prix Jacques le Marois for her breeders, Cheveley Park Stud.

If Appleby cannot win the Juddmonte he will be deadly serious about trying to get a similar figure for second thus limiting the shortfall to £350k or thereabouts. Should Mishriff have a similar bounce back as his younger female stable-companion contrived yesterday, he might still be in with a shout.

York’s importance in the context of the trainers’ title race is stark. None of the four days offers less than £1.4million in total purses. Overall, it’s slightly north of £6 million. All four of the leading trainers have multiple entries over the first three days; Appleby with 15, Haggas 17, the Gosdens 12 and Balding 13.

The final figure for Saturday will not be known until lunchtime today but Haggas has three of the first half-dozen in the betting of the Ebor, making my weak joke last week of “what’s he got in the race?” little help to anyone. I bet if he could arrange it he would love to win it with Hamish for his dad, Brian.

Now a six-year-old, Hamish must have had a litany of injuries to restrict his career after four seasons – all he did as a two-year-old was to undergo a gelding operation – to 11 runs. He would have delighted the Yorkshiremen, father and son, when he won the Melrose as a three-year-old and it is with some surprise that he heads the weights for this ultra-competitive race over course and distance on Saturday.

Many though will prefer the chance of Haggas’ ante-post favourite Gaassee, backed down to an almost suicidal price of 6/4 for the Old Newton Cup at Haydock last time. He was a creditable third after getting the kind of interference that favours the bookmakers when they seem most certain to be victims of a massive punt.

A son of Sea The Stars running in the Ahmed al Maktoum yellow and black, he had won four in a row after a debut third leading up to Haydock. Over an extra two furlongs here he could be even more devastating.

Win or lose, the spice in the trainers’ title race – which should boil down to a private battle – will liven up York and it is hoped that Maureen Haggas is on the mend after a fall from her horse in Newmarket. It happened when the animal became unsettled in face of a dog on the training grounds at an unpermitted time of day.

It seems Maureen broke two vertebrae in her neck. If she is out of action for long that will be as big a handicap that her husband could countenance, such is the influence of Lester Piggott’s elder daughter within the family stable.

Having been at Ascot for a non-runner on Shergar Cup day, and the resulting loss of my phone in the car park, I’m fully fitted up with a new device and number. I’m also going to York on Wednesday. I had hoped the same horse, Dusky Lord, would be getting in the sprint handicap which opens Wednesday’s card but 37 were entered and I made a miscalculation as to where he might end up in the long list.

I guessed 27 or 28 but happily it was 24 and we need two to come out. Another near miss would be very frustrating as he’s only an 8-1 or 10-1 shot in the market after his great run over five furlongs when second at Goodwood. Fingers crossed.

One race I always enjoy on York’s opening day is the Acomb, a seven-furlong juvenile contest that is nowadays a Group 3. All 27 runners have run either once or twice, many having won, and the qualification is that they cannot have won before July 7.

Five of the last six winners have been trained in Yorkshire, Kevin Ryan, Tim Easterby, Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston the last twice, doing the honours. Charlie Hills was the one “foreigner” in that period, with subsequent Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Phoenix of Spain four years ago. He is now a stallion at the Irish National Stud.

Last year’s winner Royal Patronage runs in the Highclere colours and, after beating Coroebus in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket last autumn, he was second to Desert Crown in the Dante before finishing miles behind that colt in the Derby. He is now with Graham Motion and recently made his US debut at Saratoga.

The 2020 winner Gear Up followed the Acomb by winning the 10-furlong late-season Group 1 in Saint-Cloud but did nothing as a three-year-old. Switched to Joseph O’Brien, he has now won twice, last time in a Group 3. He has the Melbourne Cup as his objective.

It hasn’t always been thus for Acomb winners. In Hong Kong they love to buy English-trained horses for loads of money and then change their names, so much so that trying to trace them through the Racing Post library can be troublesome.

I spent quite a time tracking down the 2019 winner Valdermoro, who won the race on his third start having already been successful the previous time. The Post record shows the race to have been won by a beast called Perpetuum. He does surface with Valdermoro’s pedigree in Hong Kong 16 months later having been gelded and presumably bought for a small (or maybe a not so small) fortune.

His new owner Mr Kameny Wong Kam Man had the doubtful pleasure of witnessing his pride and joy running four times, the first three at Sha Tin, the last at Happy Valley, adorned each time with a tongue tie, for the Tony Cruz stable.

He finished 13^th of 14, 14^th of 14, 9^th of 9 and 12^th of 12, after which he never appeared again. Win the Acomb, it can lead to feast or famine! I hope Kameny has had a bit more luck in his horse recruitment since then. Maybe he should stick to the old adage in future: “Change the name, change the luck!”

- TS

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