Monday Musings: Hong Kong Rising

At a time when interest rates for savers seem woefully low, especially if those savers enjoy having a bet, there must have been people enviously looking across to Sha Tin racecourse early yesterday, writes Tony Stafford. They were calculating what they might win on the Dream Double.

Yes, here was the chance to couple Hong Kong’s two international-class stars. Ka Ying Rising, the world’s best sprinter fresh from winning the £3.46 million Everest in Australia (and a cheeky domestic Group 2 in between), with Romantic Warrior, winner of 19 of his 25 turf starts. They both won, of course, and I can reveal that the safe-as-houses double would have realised £15.50 profit for every £100 staked.

There were few alarms during either race as Ya King Rising (1/20) pulled almost four lengths clear of his field under Aussie Zac Purton to mop up the £1.613m to the winner Longines Hong Kong Sprint over six furlongs. Three races later 1/10 shot Romantic Warrior and regular New Zealand-born partner James McDonald was as efficient as usual running almost two lengths clear of the field for the £2.304m Hong Kong Cup over ten furlongs.

So a 15.5% yield with a little less than two hours between the races for the racing-mad Hong Kong public to work out their expected profits. A handsome windfall indeed for the mathematicians who could translate it to 180% in a day while the present interest rates worldwide equate to nearer 0.01% per day.

Of course, all that is nonsense. They have to win! Romantic Warrior paid 11 HK dollars for a 10 dollar win bet and understandably, only 10.10 dollars, that’s 100/1 on, for a place.

Ka Ying Rising also paid 100/1 on for a place as he sped home for win number 17 of 19 starts, the last 16 in a row. Indeed, his two reverses came in races two and three in January last year, by a nose then a short head!

He is now on £11.7 million for those wins, a figure dwarfed by Romantic Warrior’s £24.3 million after the latest windfall yesterday. That son of Acclamation is a testimony to the veteran UK-based sire and an encouragement to a friend about to go into a partnership with trainer Roger Varian in a yearling by the stallion.

Ka Ying Rising’s win bet, in arithmetical terms, depending on how close to the off it was placed – let’s say within a couple of minutes – took 67.70 seconds to come to fruition. So 5HK dollars’ profit (from the 100 HK dollars stake) in three minutes equates to a rate of 100% in an hour. The snag? You need to find another 19 certainties to maintain that rate.

https://youtu.be/30tScLujPP8?si=VN7Vsd-Sq5aKIecz

It is extraordinary how consistent these two champions have become. Romantic Warrior lost little of his sheen with two defeats early this year, both at the hooves of Japanese-trained horses. First, he was collared late on by subsequent Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Forever Young in the £8 million to the winner Saudi Cup in Riyadh; then Soul Rush denied him, again on the line, in the Dubai Turf on World Cup night at Meydan in March.

Trainer C S (Danny) Shum gave him an eight-month break after Meydan, and he returned with an easy win on his home course last month. Had he won the other two races where he was so narrowly denied, his earnings would have been boosted by another £7,720k, thus a mind-bending £31.5 million!

Both horses are geldings, Romantic Warrior a seven-year-old and Ka Ying Rising two years younger. They are the best examples of the Hong Kong Jockey Club recruitment system in Europe, Australia and the United Stakes, principally confined to geldings, that has proved the blueprint to success.

Further east, Japan’s racing culture produces horses, like these two Hong Kong examples, capable of mixing it with the best that Europe and the US can muster. There, though, it is with a vast preponderance of entire horses that stay effectively in training for many years yet continue to run at a high level.

In all, seven Japanese geldings travelled across to contest the four international races, and their connections will have been delighted with a couple of second places. Soul Rush, avoiding Romantic Warrior this time, didn’t have the chance to confirm that win last spring, switching instead to the Mile race. He was denied by half a length by another local winner, Voyage Bubble, a second victory after Ka Ying Rising for Purton.

Harry Eustace’s Docklands was a creditable fourth here, but the Lion In Winter and Ryan Moore were never in contention and finished only eleventh.

Bellagio Opera also did extremely well for Japan, following home Romantic Warrior in second place and collecting more than £800k as a result. Only a five-year-old, he can be expected to be back again for the big races – probably in Riyadh in February and on World Cup day in Dubai the following month.

Harry Eustace has been enjoying a wonderful time over the past 13 months or so with Docklands, who apart from unexpectedly winning the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, has also performed well in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong, to where this was a second visit.

This trip will have given him time to catch up with brother David, who after a spell as joint trainer with Ciaron Maher in Australia, now operates under his sole proprietorship in Hong Kong.

David Eustace had a nice handicap win early on the card, whereas at the other end of the day, Hollie Doyle came very close to adding to her HK tally, finishing second in the finale on Drombeg Banner. She, Richard Kingscote, David Probert and longer-standing Hong Kong resident Harry Bentley, have a tough time getting on the right horses in this tight community.

The one major race that did evade the home team was the 1m4f Vase won by the Andre Fabre-trained Sosie, for the Wertheimer brothers. Sosie had been a strong fancy for the Arc where he was a fast-finishing third and that form ensured he would start favourite here.

In the event, the first five places went to the Europeans: Marco Botti’s Giavellotto, ridden by another recent UK export Andrei Atzeni, maintained his high level of form in second ahead of Goliath, Joseph O’Brien’s Al Riffa and Aidan’s Los Angeles.

Back in the UK, Saturday’s most valuable prize was the one-time Massey-Ferguson Gold Cup, the companion race in those days to the month-earlier Mackeson Gold Cup. It was very nice that a race of this stature was chosen as the vehicle for the Support the Hunt Family Fund, with Gold Cup Handicap Chase added for good measure.

Everyone has heard of the awful tragedy that John and his family endured, with his wife and two daughters killed in a pointless, brutal attack in their home just as John was driving back from his commentating duties at Lingfield that afternoon.

I bumped into John and his surviving daughter Amy the other day and for the umpteenth time wondered how they can keep control of their emotions as they appear to.

The race was something of a fairy tale, with Sean Bowen making all the running on a 33/1 shot for trainer Faye Bramley. Glengouly was 5lb out of the handicap, hence the big price despite the riding arrangements, and his history tells another tale.

After three wins during a busy career with Willie Mullins and an unseat when tiring a long way into the 2024 Grand National, he came up for sale in this May’s Tatts online sale, changing hands for 16,000gns.

He started off in his new yard with some modest efforts and then a wind op, but gradually things got better, yet hardly well enough to collect such a big prize. No wonder Sean Bowen reckons he can win 300 races this season, if he can have such a transforming effect on what might have appeared a tired old veteran. We never thought Tony McCoy’s best would ever be under threat, but Sean reckons otherwise. So far, it’s 155 and counting!

Dan Skelton didn’t win that one but collected another 13 during the past fortnight including a late double on the Cheltenham card. Harry looked especially good and he obviously gets a special kick coming up the hill first at Prestbury Park. Maybe he’ll think of a new celebration if that happens at the Festival. Perhaps standing up on the saddle as he crosses the line first after one of those minutely targeted handicaps?

- TS

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