It was with the usual excitement that I headed west from Hackney to the monied enclaves of Kensington for an evening of Cheltenham chat with a panel of bona fide experts at the London Racing Club's annual Cheltenham Festival Preview night.
The panel was comprised of Racing TV's 'Road to Cheltenham' voice, Lydia Hislop (LH); stats, trends and form judge, Matt Tombs (MT); BetVictor rep and co-host of Sky Sports Racing's Friday night show, Sam Boswell (SB); with LRC President and Racing Post chief correspondent Lee Mottershead (LM) doing the steering.
Below is my impression of their thoughts, hopefully faithfully reproduced.
[NB Since the evening a few non-runners have emerged - note those as you scan through...]
Tuesday
Supreme
LH – Strong Supreme. It might be that Willie Mullins horses step forward notably here?
Will be strongly run race. Mighty Park has a bit to prove.
Talk The Talk jumped better at DRF but quicker ground may put hurdling under pressure – jumping improving, made up ground off slow pace impressively.
MT – Old Park Star most likely winner but his price is tight enough.
Think TTT should run in Turners.
Against El Cairos.
Sober Glory interesting but might need to lead. Leader d’Allier is a Townend connection. He could be value.
So too Idaho Sun, who beat Mydaddypaddy on merit in Formby. Strongly run race should suit, each-way price.
SB – OPS will be taken on by bookmakers on the day. Idaho Sun is the wise guy horse – each-way angle into the race.
Arkle
SB – Kopek des Bordes worst result of the week right now, don’t really get the weakness of Lulamba.
MT – Once raced horses can win the Arkle. 2/8 this century and two others were no-hopers. Irish Arkle may have left a mark on Kargese / Romeo Coolio.
LH – Very deep Arkle. Lulamba very good but vulnerable. Which are likely to be QMCC contenders next year? KdB, maybe Kargese. But Lulamba / Romeo Coolio look more like King George types. Prefer KdB.
LM – If there was still a 2m4f G1, Lulamba / Romeo Coolio would be in there. So the race changes seem to be working.
Champion Hurdle
LH – Lossiemouth might go this way and could wear cheekpieces if she does (acc. to Rich Ricci). Brighterdaysahead & Lossiemouth might have had hard races at DRF (93% finishing speed). Golden Ace looks sure to run her race.
SB – The New Lion won’t be favourite on the day if Lossie runs. Not sure about his jumping at championship speed. Poniros might be the angle.
MT – Not sure Lossie will run. Don’t think she looks happy in fast run 2m. Want to take on TNL, unknown quantity. Opposable at the price. Backed BDA but cooled a bit, hard race LTO. Might have a stab at Alexei at big price.
Tuesday Handicaps
LH – "Iroko wins the Ultima". Think he’s got a very strong chance.
SB – Western Junior playable for the Fred Winter if landing there.
Wednesday
Queen Mother Champion Chase
LH – Big prices: Libberty Hunter and Only By Night if they go this way. Non-runner no bet (NRNB).
MT – Jonbon probably not running in QMCC. Cannot have L'eau du Sed or Il Etait Temps. Freshness angle totally overplayed with the former. In the 'without Majborough' market, Quilixios goes well fresh.
SB – Majborough might be a be tricky watch at odds-on. Have a look at the 'without' market at the big prices.
Turners
MT – Mighty Park should maybe come here because easier to win Turners off one run. Didn’t hit the line that hard on his debut. This race is perfect for Talk The Talk; if not TTT, King Rasko Grey and/or Skylight Hustle. Mullins first string often wins, but his other runners have never won this race.
LH– Mighty Park never been under pressure at a hurdle, so this might be the race for him. Quite keen on No Drama This End and prefer Skylight Hustel over Ballyfad. But no strong view.
SB – Feel like No Drama This End might drift on the day, seems to be a weakness around Paul Nicholls' horses these days. Doctor Steinberg: traders thought he’d come here rather than Albert Bartlett.
Brown Advisory
SB – Final Demand looks short against The Big Westerner. Wendigo might be nap of the meeting. Tactically made for this race, think he’s a cracking horse.
LH – Not attracted by Final Demand. Can’t have Romeo Coolio at 3m1f. This race is now ½f further and over one more fence. Koktail Divin won’t stay. Like The Big Westerner ("really good chance") and Wendigo from last year’s Albert Bartlett.
MT – Not Final Demand. WPM not happy with him all season apparently. Don’t like headgear / Kaid d’Authie. Western Fold could run well on decent ground but he’s vulnerable to an improver. Oscar’s Brother a possible, but agree that The Big Westerner & Wendigo look value.
Cross Country
MT – Favori de Champdou looks good, won Trials Day race and goes on any ground. Stumptown might still have his hard Velka Pardubicka run in his legs. Favori de Champdou looks the most likely winner of a handicap all week.
Other races
LH – Grand Annual– Henry de Bromhead (HdB) Inthepocket and possibly Downmexicoway. Jazzy Matty could defend his crown though repeat winners are rare. Libberty Hunter also on the radar.
SB – Champion Bumper – Bass Huntermight run well, and maybe Wilde's Legacy.
Thursday
Mares' Hurdle
SB – Lossiemouth will be very short if she comes here. Wodhooh short if Lossie goes Champion Hurdle.
LH – Jade de Grugy is the bet NRNB. Only runs here if Lossie goes CH. Comparable form to Wodhooh. Lossie was a bit flat in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time.
MT – Back Jade de Grugy NRNB here andfor the Mares' Chase. Gordon Elliott apparently makes Wodhooh his nap of the meeting.
Stayers’ Hurdle
LH – Fascinating race. Teahupoo too short but no worries re ground. Honesty Policy progressive but long walk form not great; Kabral du Mathan may have too much pace for 3m. Bob Olinger still has a chance even aged 11: Cheltenham and drying ground will suit. Coming round to Ma Shantou. Cannot have Ballyburn for anything: he just seems out of love with the game.
MT – Largely agree with LH. Want to take on the old guard with three young guns. Not keen on Kabral du Mathan. Honesty Policy has achieved a lot in a short time – has star potential but missed his prep race (Boyne Hurdle). Also warming to Ma Shantou, who’s still a touch of value for the Paisley Park yard of Emma Lavelle.
SB – Been too dismissive of Ma Shantou who looks playable e/w. Bob O will be thereabouts again.
Ryanair
LH – Think Fact To File runs here and Gaelic Warrior goes Gold Cup. Really impressed with FtF in the Irish Gold Cup. Whichever of FtF/GW turns up here probably wins. Banbridge has a chance but not of the calibre of FtF/GW.
MT – Banbridge clear pick behind FtF/GW. Banbridge could be e/w against the top of the market.
Other races
SB – Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle – Old School Outlaw negative vibes but Gordon Elliott adamant she's fine. Bambino Fever could end up a bit of a punter banker for Thursday. La Conquiere interesting e/w at a big price.
LH – Charme de Faust probably coming here. Don’t see the argument for Bambino Fever to beat Old School Outlaw after their run last time. Good race, other players in here. OSO if trainer is happy with her.
Jack Richards
LH - Meetmebythesea “best bet of the meeting”. Trainer Ben Pauling didn’t deny he has a great chance.
MT – Regent’s Stroll if Harry Cobden rides. Almost always a top of the market race where a G1 horse emerges. Look for the class horse in the field.
LH – Kim Muir - Waterford Whispers / Uhavemeinstitches
Pertemps- Supremely West and Gowel Road may be a value bet on the day.
Friday
Gold Cup
MT – Strongly feel Inothewayurthinkin will not win. Don’t fancy Galopin Des Champs either. Gaelic Warrior might be too keen to get home. Don’t fancy Haiti Couleurs, hasn’t got form to think he can win at this level.
Grey Dawning not impossible off a quiet prep. Like Jango Baie and The Jukebox Man. Jango Baie looks like he will improve for step up in trip. Similarly TJM but trainer was targeting the King George this season.
LH – Complex race. McManus horses: cannot see Inotheway being good enough to defend his title. Spillane’s Tower may be aimed at Grand National. So could Fact To File run here?
GdC probably too old but could still be good enough to make the frame if wearing cheekpieces. GW has the talent but he’s a complicated ride. Haiti Couleurs is not good enough. Jango / TJM look the pair to focus on. Love how TJM managed to win King George in spite of the poorest jump of the principals at the last. Fastorslow not totally impossible to imagine him running a nice race at a big price.
SB – Jango Baie at Ascot this season was “a wow moment”. Envoi Allen might shorten.
Triumph
LH – No idea!
MT – Was Narciso Has an outstanding hurdler here? If so, can see why Proactif / Selma de Vary are at the top of the betting. But if not... the British horses are probably underrated. Minella Study looks some value based on his form.
SB – Backed Selma and happy to roll with that.
Albert Bartlett
SB – Kripticjim has a chance at 20/1.
LH – Klimt Madrik, chased home No Drama This End in the Challow, and King's Bucks for HdB, both have chances.
MT – Take on the top of market. Horses 5/1 or shorter 0/20 in recent years.
Two longshots: Moneygarrow looks like he wants this trip. Hipop de Loire wants decent ground. Ubetuba – Olly Murphy, ridden by Ben Sutton. Would be interesting if Sean Bowen gets the ride.
County Hurdle
MT – Karbau has good chance.
LH - Strong view from Ruby that Karbau is the one.
SB – Declan Rix made a strong case for Hello Neighbour – this is his only entry.
Hunter Chase
MT - Willitgoahead will benefit from stronger stamina test. Decent chance at about 14/1.
Mares' Chase
LH – Like Spindleberry but don’t love her prep. Dinoblue will need to improve and looks poor value. Really like Diva Luna. Ben Pauling very positive about her.
Martin Pipe
SB – Jump Allen prepped in a charity race so look for his entries.
Panel Lucky 15
SB – La Conquiere – Dawn Run, Thursday
LM – Munsif – Fred Winter, Tuesday
LH – Meetmebythesea – Jack Richards, Wednesday
MT – Idaho Sun – Supreme, Tuesday
Good luck!















Great work as always Matt in summarising the outputs from these preview nights.
As the team talked primarily about specific horses and not approach, let me offer something alternative to keep losses at a minimum (glass half empty or what!). For all the non-handicap races at the festival, it’s vital for a jockey to know their horse. The 23-year stats prove this if we look at how many times a jockey has ridden their horse before.
0-2 times – 4.8% win s/r, 16% place s/r, A/E of 0.73
3 times or more – 9.3% win s/r, 25.4% place s/r, A/E of 0.91
Good luck all next week!
Cheers
Russ
RPR and TS ratings are missing for a lot of runners on racecards for Cheltenham on Tuesday. Supreme seems ok but from the Arkle onwards there are many runners without figures? Wednesdays cards seems ok though.
Hi there, there’s a short hiatus between the early cards and RPR/TS ratings being received the evening before racing. This is due to our data provider (Racing Post) unfortunately and out of our control.
Matt
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