Sat TV Trends: 1st Oct 2022 geegeez.co.uk

Here at Geegeez, we take you through the eight LIVE ITV4 races this Saturday at Ascot, Redcar and Newmarket from a trends angle.

At Redcar, we've got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage - a race a French-trained horse has won 5 times in the last 18 years. Then at Ascot, we've four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

Did you know? 17 of the last 19 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

Use these trends and stats to whittle down the final runners and find the best profiles of recent winner.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

1.51 – Oakman Group Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

17/17 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
17/17 – Won over 5f before
16/17 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Aged 5 or younger
12/17 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
13/17 – Rated 101 or higher
11/17 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/17 – Unplaced last time out
8/17 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
9/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/17 – Irish bred
3/17 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/17 – Trained by Michael Dods (3 of last 4 runnings)
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Tis Marvellous won the race in 2021
13 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

2.25 – Peroni Nastro Azzurro Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

18/19 - Finished fourth or better last time out
17/19 – Placed favourites
16/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/19 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/19 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/19 – Won at Listed or Group class before
14/19 – Had raced at the course before (7 won)
12/19 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
12/19 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/19 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Favourites to win
6/19 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Trained by Owen Burrows (2 of last 4)
1/19 – Filly or mare winners
12 of the last 13 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

3.00 - John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

13/13 – Won over 6f previously
13/13 – Officially rated 100 or higher
11/13 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/13 – Won 4 or more times previously
8/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/13 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/13 – Won their previous race
4/13 – Favourites to win
3/13 – Returned a double-figure price
2/13 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/13 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2 of the last 4 winners came from stalls 6
8 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
Vadream (6/1) won the race last year
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 6 of the last 10 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 6 of the last 10 runnings

3.36 – Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

18/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
16/19 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
16/19 – Won over 7f previously
13/19 – Had raced within the last 30 days
14/19 – Raced at Ascot previously
12/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/19 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/19 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/19 – Returned a double-figure price
8/19 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
6/19 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/19 – Favourites that won
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/19 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/19 – Won their previous race
0/19 – Filly or mare winners
9 of the last 11 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
The last 11 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 13 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 13 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 17
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 15/2
Accidental Agent won the race in 2017

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.31 - British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Favourites placed in the first three
5/6 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
4/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Won just once before
3/6 – Had won over 1m2f before
2/6 – Winning favourites

2.06 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
7/7 – Foaled Feb or later
6/7 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/7 – Rated between 79-85
5/7 – Won from a double-figure draw
5/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
4/7 – Won just one before
4/7 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
1/7 – Winning favourites

2.42 - Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

16/18 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/18 – Previous Group winners
13/18 – Won between 3-5 times before
13/18 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
12/18 – Rated between 113 and 119
12/18 – Previous Group One winners
9/18 – Aged 3 years-old
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 co)
6/18 – Raced at Deauville last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – French-trained winners
5/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 16 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 12

Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

3.21 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

17/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/20 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
14/20 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
14/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/20 – Foaled in March or later
10/20 – Had won over 6f before
10/20 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/20 – Unplaced favourites
6/20 – Filly winners
6/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/20 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/20– Trained by Richard Fahey

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