Sat TV Trends: 6th March 2021 geegeez.co.uk

We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, we’ve got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 – BetVictor Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV

9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1

1.50 – BetVictor Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.20 – Virgin Bet Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV

7 previous runnings
7/7- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
6/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top 2
6/7 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
4/7 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
4/7 – Irish bred

2.55 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/9 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/9 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/9 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/9 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Movie Legend won the race in 2019

3.30 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV

16/16 – Aged 8 or older
15/16 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/16 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
13/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/16 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
12/16 – Aged 9 or older
11/16 – From the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Rated 131 or less
10/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/16 – Winning Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
Captain Chaos won the race in 2020
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.30 – bet365 Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV

11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/12 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Had raced at Kelso before
6/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Winning favourite
3/12– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/12 – Trained by Lucinda Russell

2.05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track

2.40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV

7/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had run at the course before
6/7 – Favourites placed 1^st or 2^nd
5/7 – Placed 4^th or better last time out
5/7 – Won over 3m plus in the past
5/7 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
5/7 – Aged 9 or older
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Rated between 132-140 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/7 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes
3/7 – Winning favourite
Definitely Red (Evs) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

3.15 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m

9/9 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had run in the last 3 months
8/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Rated between 138-146
4/9 – Winning favourites
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/9 – Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/9 – Had won at the track before
2/9 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/9 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/4

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