Scottish Grand National Trends

The Grand National bandwagon continues in April as we get set for the Coral-sponsored SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – this year will now be run on Saturday 2nd April 2022, at Ayr racecourse.

As, we all know the main National is the one at Aintree, but the Scottish version is up there as a close second with the Irish and Welsh renewals so it’s still a fascinating race.

Run over 4m, which is around 2 furlongs shorter than last weeks, but with 27 fences to jump too then it goes without saying stamina will still very much be the order of the day.

There will be a maximum of 30 runners too so – just like all the other Nationals a certain amount of luck is also required for runners and riders to avoid any fallers or loose horses.

However, being first run in 1858 and having a long history then there are also plenty of trends for punters to take in and hopefully use to find the best profiles of past winners.

For example…………………Did you know that ALL of the last 18 winners ran within the last 57 days, while 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 8 or older?

So, to help we’ve got the main ‘plus and minus’ 18 year trends to apply to the Scottish Grand National runners – by just following these simple rules you’ll at least have the make-up of past Scottish Grand National winners on your side when placing your bets.

Weight Watchers:  The main weight cut-off point, based on the trends, is 10st 9lbs as we’ve seen 13 of the last 18 winners carry 10-9 or less. However, it’s also worth noting that 4 of the last 8 winners carried 11-1 or more. But it’s certainly been the horses with the less burdens on their backs that have the better recent record – of the last 16 runnings, 12 winners had 10-9 or less.

Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute ‘must-have’ when looking down the entries – after all the race is over 4m! This is backed-up with 12 of the last 18 winners having won previously over 3m or further, while 5 of the last 18 had won over 3m7f or further during their careers.

Recent Form: Coming into the race off the back of a fairly recent run, plus a decent finish in their last run is another positive. In the last 18 runnings, a massive 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 6 in their most recent race, while 6 of the last 18 won last time out. Again, backed up by the 2021 - Mighty Thunder - who finished second in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter before taking the Scottish National.

Age Concern: Experience is often seen as a big plus in any staying race – however, it’s not so important here. Yes, you really need to be 8 or older as we’ve seen 16 of the last 18 winners aged between 8 and 11 years old. We have, however, seen a few 7 year-olds pop up in more recent years (2013 and 2016) - so you can’t totally rule out this age group. But at the other end of the age spectrum, with just one 12 year-old (or older) winning since 1947 then really we can put a line through any of the older statesmen in the race.

Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Scottish Grand National is always competitive and this year can be expected to be no different. But the main thing to note when it comes to the market, is that we’ve seen just one winning favourite in the last 18 runnings! So, certainly a race the bookmakers are holding sway in recently, with this being backed up by 13 of the last 18 winners also returning a double-figure price. Having said that, it could pay to not look too far down the market as 11 of the last 18 winners hailed from the top seven horses in the betting.

Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran. With ALL of the last 18 winners having raced in the last 57 days then we should be able to quickly rule several out here. Yes, it’s always wise to give this stat a 2 or 3 day leeway for obvious reasons, but we should still be able to knock out a fair few.

Top Trainers: No real stable dominance in recent years, with a different yard winning 16 of the last 18 renewals – the only exceptions being the Paul Nicholls who have won the race three times (1997, 2016 and 2017). Other yards to note that have won the race since 2009 are Nigel Twiston-Davies, Alan King, Peter Bowen, Rebecca Curtis and Nicky Richards - while Lucinda Russell won the race 12 months ago.

Recent Scottish Grand National Winners

2021 - MIGHTY THUNDER (8/1)
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014 – AL CO (40/1)
2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
2012 – MERIGO (15/2)
2011 – BESHABAR (15/2)
2010 – MERIGO (18/1)
2009 – HELLO BUD (12/1)
2008 – IRIS de BALME (66/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (14/1)
2006 – RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
2005 – JOES EDGE (20/1)
2004 – GREY ABBEY (12/1)
2003 – RYALUX (15/2)

Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats

18/18 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
16/18 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
16/18 – Aged 8 or older
14/18 – French or Irish bred
14/18 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
13/18 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first three last time out
13/18 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
12/18 – Had won over 3m or further
12/18 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
11/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
7/18 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/18 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/18 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 5 winners)
1/18 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 9 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 20/1

 

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