Aidan O’Brien’s Illinois and Francis-Henri Graffard’s Candelari have the chance to fill the void left by Kyprios after standing their ground for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.
There is a vacancy at the top of the staying tree after the recent retirement of O’Brien’s dual Gold Cup hero, but hopes are high Illinois could prove a ready-made replacement judged on his impressive Ormonde Stakes success at Chester.
O’Brien has also confirmed Coronation Cup hero Jan Brueghel, but Illinois is poised for a mouthwatering showdown with Graffard’s French raider, who announced himself at the top-level with a sublime performance at ParisLongchamp in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier.
John and Thady Gosden’s Trawlerman and Sweet William have been regular bridesmaids to Kyprios and now have the chance of their moment in the spotlight, with the former winning well in his Sandown reappearance.
Andrew Balding’s Coltrane is another regular in this event, but he will have to reverse Sagaro Stakes form with Michael Bell’s Yashin to make his presence felt, with Bell looking to recreate the Gold Cup exploits of Big Orange from 2017.
Saeed bin Suroor has confirmed Dubai Gold Cup scorer Dubai Future, with James Ferguson’s Wonder Legend given the chance to transfer his smart all-weather form on turf.
The 10-strong list is rounded off by Alan King’s stalwart Trueshan, although the warm weather has the potential to once again scupper any hope of him appearing in this race.
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Exciting filly See The Fire has been supplemented to join the likes of Los Angeles and Anmaat in a mouthwatering renewal of Wednesday’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Having performed well at Group One level on several occasions last season, Andrew Balding’s See The Fire could only finish fifth on her Sandown comeback, but bounced back to form with a spectacular 12-length success in last month’s Middleton Stakes at York.
She is now set to take on the boys in the feature event on day two of the Royal meeting after being added to the £1million Prince of Wales’s Stakes at a cost of £70,000.
Los Angeles (left) and Anmaat will lock horns again at Ascot (Niall Carson/PA)
Aidan O’Brien’s Los Angeles denied the Owen Burrows-trained Anmaat by half a length in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last month, with last year’s winner White Birch back in fourth.
All three horses look set to line up on Wednesday, with Anmaat arguably the one open to most improvement given his Tattersalls Gold Cup appearance was his first since winning the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October.
O’Brien has also left in Continuous, while French hopes are set to be carried by Francis-Henri Graffard’s Map Of Stars and Facteur Cheval from Jerome Reynier’s yard. The former has won five of his seven starts to date and was touched off by Sosie in the Prix Ganay on his most recent outing.
Ombudsman (John and Thady Gosden), Certain Lad (Jack Channon) and Royal Champion (Karl Burke) are the others to stand their ground.
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There are three festivals a year I get really excited about, writes Dave Renham. The Cheltenham Festival and Glorious Goodwood are two; and the third, which is soon to be upon us, is of course Royal Ascot. Around this time last year I looked in detail at the big 1-mile handicaps at the meeting - you can catch up with that piece here. This year I am concentrating on the Group 1 races.
Introduction
There are eight Group 1s run at the Royal meeting and they are as follows:
As would be expected, there is a good mix of different race distances and conditions although there is only one Group 1 race at a distance beyond 1m 2f, the Gold Cup.
In this article I am looking back on the last ten years of these Group 1 contests, trying to find any snippets that may help us when tackling the races this year. Profit and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Market Rank
Let me start by examining the market. I have ranked the runners based on BSP, which is the most accurate way of doing it. Further, it eliminates almost all of the ‘joint’ market positions.
These races have definitely been market-friendly with the top three betting positions each producing a blind profit. Those fourth in the Betfair betting lists have performed poorly but due to the modest sample we can perhaps assume this is an anomaly. Regardless, it seems that the top three in the betting are the ones to concentrate on.
Group 1 Favourites at Royal Ascot
Narrowing in on favourites, below are the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures for each individual race to help give a better overview of favourite performance in specific races. For the record the average PRB figures for favourites across the eight races combined stands at 0.76.
There has been quite a variance with Gold Cup favourites performing best, and by some margin. Their actual performance in the Gold Cup has been as follows:
During the ten year study period the Gold Cup favourite secured five wins, two seconds, a third and two fourths, so no BSP jolly has completely bombed out.
Royal Ascot Group 1s: Top 3 Market Ranks
If we undertake the same type of PRB analysis across the top three in the betting, the graph generally becomes more even:
The St James’s Palace has the highest figure now with the Gold Cup a close second. Nine of the ten winners of the St James’s Palace came from the top three in the betting (four favourites, three second favs, two third favs).
Conversely, of all the races the Commonwealth Cup has seen fancied runners struggle the most. Favourites have won three of the last ten Commonwealth Cup renewals, but there were no wins for second favourites (two wins for third favs). Quite a few horses that were in the top three of the betting have bombed out with 10 of the 30 failing to finish in the top ten, three of them being favourites.
It should be noted that the four winning Commonwealth Cup favourites in the past decade more than paid for the other six losing jollies, returning a profit of 2.55 units at BSP.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Position
The second area I want to look at is recent performance and specifically LTO finishing position. Here is a breakdown of performance by last day finishing position (I have grouped all horses together that finished fifth or worse LTO):
The BSP profit for those that finished third LTO has been totalled skewed by the 140.0 BSP winner Khaadem. LTO winners do look the group to concentrate on with over half of the 80 winners having also won on their most recent start. If we combine LTO winners with a position in the top three in the betting, then we see some excellent results: 36 winners from 115 runners (SR 31.13%) for a profit of £30.50 (ROI +26.5%); A/E 1.14.
It is also worth keeping an eye out for LTO winners that won by at least a length in the race prior to Ascot. These runners have scored 18.9% of the time (30 wins from 159) for a profit of £29.13 (ROI +18.3%).
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Race Class
Onto looking at the class of race LTO. Here are the splits:
As we would expect horses that ran in Group 1 company last time have won most often. Those that raced in Group 3 or Listed Class LTO have been profitable, but both have been skewed by very big priced winners going in. Still, Royal Ascot is a meeting where horses fairly consistently win at massive odds.
LTO winners that contested a Group 1 race have actually offered poor value despite a strike rate of close to 30%. The 51 qualifiers lost over 28p in the £ if backing them to repeat the Group 1 win at Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot Group 1s by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)
It is time to see whether the timing of the last run before Royal Ascot makes a difference. It should be noted this data does not include French, American or Australian runners as I do not have facility to check those. However, it still applies to over 90% of Ascot runners. Here are my findings:
As the table shows, I have included 50 to 240 days as a single group simply because there are very few runners within that grouping, and their performance has been poor. I wanted to help highlight the difference between that group and the group absent 241+ days (or eight months-plus).
The biggest cohort had a run between 22 and 35 days prior to Ascot and their results have been positive given the overall context. To give a broader overview let me share the PRB figures for each ‘days off track’ grouping:
These figures correlate with the win strike rates. The figures for 22 to 35 days and 241 days+ are clearly best. Finally in this section, below is the ten-year performance in Royal Ascot Group 1s of horses from the top three in the betting by days since last run:
Again, this points to the same two groups (22 to 35 days; 241+ days) as the areas in which to focus from a positive perspective. They would have offered punters very good value over the past ten years.
Royal Ascot Group 1 Trainers
The final area I will consider is that of trainers although it should be noted that data is limited. There are a handful of trainers who have saddled at least 20 runners in Royal Ascot Group 1s in the last ten years, and they are shown in the following table:
It is important not to take these figures (especially big profit lines) too literally due to the sample sizes. It is probably more prudent to look at the PRB values to give a better general indication of how each trainer's horses have run:
William Haggas, despite having just one winner from 24, has an excellent PRB figure so it looks like he has been somewhat unlucky in recent years. He has endured five second places, as well as four thirds and five fourths. Haggas looks a trainer that may offer some placepot/ each way value at the very least next week.
By contrast, Roger Varian’s runners have really struggled although a good proportion of his charges have been bigger prices. Indeed, Charyn, in last year's Queen Anne Stakes is Varian's sole Royal Ascot G1 winner to date. There are sure to be more in future but his seem a little over-bet.
Other trainer titbits to share include the fact that Aidan O’Brien's 13 Group 1 winners in the past decade have all been ridden by Ryan Moore (from 61 rides). All other jockeys riding for O'Brien are a combined 0 from 43 since 2015, although again most of these runners were outsiders. Sticking with O’Brien it seems best to concentrate on those starting favourite or second favourite. They have combined to produce 12 of his 13 winners (from 34 qualifiers) returning a small 2p in the £. Finally, albeit from a very small sample, the Gosden stable has had four winners and four placed runners from just 13 runners aged four.
Summary
The Group 1 races at Royal Ascot are the races that owners, trainers and jockeys covet the most, although any win at the Royal meeting is huge.
In terms of the Group 1s, the most fancied runners - those in the top three in the betting - have fared much the best. Don’t be put off by horses having their first run in more than eight months (241+ days) and we might also consider a break of 22 to 35 days (three to five weeks) as more of a positive than a negative.
A last day win is preferable to other finishing positions and a last time out win coupled with a top three position in the betting market has been a very strong positive. From the training ranks, William Haggas appears to have been quite unlucky in the past decade and certainly I’ll be popping a few of his runners in my placepots at the very least. Aidan O’ Brien runners are worth noting if starting in the top two of the betting and particularly when ridden by Ryan Moore.
Wishing you the best of luck with your Royal Ascot Group 1 wagers.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Kyprios_MojoStar_Stradivarius_GoldCup_Ascot2022.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2025-06-09 12:35:212025-06-09 12:35:21Royal Ascot 2025: Analysing The Group 1 Races
Irish 1,000 Guineas heroine Lake Victoria has been ruled out of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Undefeated in five juvenile starts last season, including Group One wins in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, the Cheveley Park and at the Breeders’ Cup, Aidan O’Brien’s filly was beaten into sixth place in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on her return to action but bounced back to her best in the Irish equivalent.
The daughter of Frankel was expected to be a major part of the Ballydoyle handler’s Ascot team next week, but owners Coolmore said in a post on X on Monday: “Lake Victoria will not run at Royal Ascot. She will have an easy few weeks and will return for a late summer/autumn campaign.”
The post also confirmed plans for Minnie Hauk and Whirl after the pair finished first and second in the Betfred Oaks at Epsom on Friday.
It read: “Epsom Oaks winner Minnie Hauk will target the Irish Oaks, while Whirl, who finished runner-up in the Epsom Oaks, will head for the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes.”
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So Aidan and the boys won the Betfred-sponsored Coronation Cup, Oaks and Derby last weekend, picking up around £1.5 million in the process, writes Tony Stafford. Lambourn, the well-backed third favourite on Derby Day, far out-performed his much more talked-about stable companions The Lion In Winter and short-priced favourite Delacroix in almost a repetition of Serpentine’s all-the-way easy victory under Emmet McNamara at the height of Covid five years ago.
Ryan Moore had selected Delacroix from the gang of trials winners rather than Chester Vase hero Lambourn and, in retrospect, it was maybe a little strange as Aidan always sends his best candidates to Chester, its timing best suiting Epsom.
People may question the suitability of a one-mile always-turning circuit as a recipe for revealing Epsom Classic talent, but I know Henry Cecil always reckoned that a big horse would be fine around the Roodeye if he was well-balanced. Lambourn certainly is.
He was picked up almost by default by Wayne Lordan, the apparent third string – Colin Keane, the regular Irish champion was on Dante flop The Lion In Winter. But the stamina Lambourn showed in winning the Chester Vase (just beyond 1m4f) last month convinced Wayne to go hard in the first furlong out of the stalls – to wake his mount up as much as anything – as he knew, unlike many in the field, his mount would not fail through lack of staying power.
Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy last year were fully expected winners but two other runnings in the last decade have gone to perceived third or higher strings. Wings Of Eagle, the fifth choice in terms of expectations in 2017 was a 40/1 shot when Padraig Beggy guided him home.
Beggy has been rarely seen since on the racecourse, but he did return to Epsom two years later to partner outsider Sovereign as a pacemaker in the Derby and finished tenth. He then rode him as a 25/1 outsider in the Irish Derby and won it!
McNamara might not have seen much riding action after Serpentine’s triumph, but it’s hardly surprising as he had been combining his riding with studying at Griffith College, Dublin. He graduated from there in 2018 with first-class honours in accountancy and finance in 2018 and works in that capacity in the Coolmore operation. Talk about top-class staff!
Moved across to Ballydoyle when David Wachman, John Magnier’s son-in-law, stopped training to take a behind the scenes role in the Coolmore machine, Lordan was third string to Ryan Moore and Seamie Heffernan until that veteran left the team a couple of years or so ago.
Lordan, one of those outdated characters, a true lightweight, had a serious injury during the 2023 Irish Derby which took eight months to overcome. As he said after Saturday’s triumph, he has a wonderful job. It was only a neck that denied him the Oaks-Derby double when Moore’s mount Minnie Hauk just edged out he and Whirl after another flawless front-running ride around Epsom’s tricky 1m4f course the previous afternoon, showing what jewels are available to the Coolmore number two on which to demonstrate his skills.
The modest Mr Lordan affirmed that he will have been in for work at 7 a.m. as usual yesterday and after no drunken celebratory stupor. Like the trainer he’s a teetotaller.
Aidan O’Brien has now won the Derby and Oaks eleven times each and, for good measure, ten Coronation Cups after Friday’s determined triumph for Jan Brueghel over the odds-on French four-year-old Calandagan. The Francis-Henri Graffard-trained horse was adding to his string of half-hearted second places (now four in a row) behind a typically tough O’Brien stayer.
In all, it’s 47 UK Classics from the 139 that have been contested since his first winning attempt in the 1,000 Guineas in 1998. That’s around 33 per cent. At least everyone else has been able to share the remaining two-thirds although, as time goes on, the dominance if anything is strengthening.
Aidan’s 22 Epsom Classics have all come this century, thus 22 of the 52 to have been run, or 42%! When Michael Tabor and Mrs Sue Magnier add their joint win with the Andre Fabre-trained Pour Moi, they are on 12.
To add to the winner, Coolmore’s partners also own Tennessee Stud, who finished fast from off the pace for the Joseph O’Brien stable. This son of Wootton Bassett was bred by Joseph’s mother Anne-Marie. Wootton Bassett has been the runaway star of the Coolmore firmament of late and his fee for this year was raised to an almost unthinkable €300k.
But even at that lofty price, in this Derby line-up he wasn’t the most expensive of the 14 sires (New Bay, Ghaiyyath, Sea The Stars and Frankel were doubly represented). Juddmonte’s Frankel’s fee is £350k. Dubawi, with one runner yesterday, has the same fee for his services at Darley Stud.
Every November the stud fees for Coolmore’s stallions are made public. I was shocked in 2023 that Australia, the 2014 Derby and Irish Derby winner and a son of another outstanding Epsom hero in the peerless Galileo, had his fee for 2024 reduced to €17,500. If potential clients needed any further encouragement, his dam is the Oaks winner Ouija Board.
I mentioned it to one of Coolmore’s stallion sales team at the time, who said it reflected his lack of popularity, probably because his progeny often needed time. He added that the only people that seemed to have confidence in him still were Aidan and Anne-Marie who sent a good number of mares to him.
Checking on my facts, I was further stunned that the 2025 fee was down to ten grand (Euro, about £8,400). Aidan and Anne-Marie sure know their stuff. It’s not too late for Australia to start going back towards the €50k at which he began his stallion career. Note, for example, that he is still at Coolmore while others have been sent elsewhere due to the hard-nosed realism that characterises the stud’s management. Of the 20 published stallion figures for flat race rather than jumps sires, only one was listed at a lower figure.
Watching from home due to entirely foreseen but inescapable circumstances, I was momentarily fooled into thinking that Lester Piggott had come back to ride in the Derby in the second running after his death. As the horses walked around, I noticed just how similar Rossa Ryan carries himself on a horse. When you get the chance, have a look. No doubt he’ll win the race one day, but the Dante Stakes winner Pride Of Arras never looked in with a chance.
One fact that certainly didn’t fool me was the dispiriting sight of the sparsely populated Hill. Every first Saturday in May, in Louisville, Kentucky, upwards of 100,000 squeeze in, a tradition in US racing that goes back to the days of the famed War Admiral/Seabiscuit match race at Pimlico in November 1938, where upstart Seabiscuit met his regally bred Kentucky Derby-winning rival and humbled him.
When I used to go to Epsom with my dad in the 1960s, there were more people there during the three-day (now one) Spring meeting in April than deigned to turn up on Saturday.
All the years I used to go there when with the Daily Telegraph, I arrived for breakfast in the old lads’ canteen, waiting for a glimpse of a few of the contenders having a leg shake in the morning, and the crowd was already building up. Many scores of buses lined the straight and the Hill was packed. On Saturday there was a sprinkling of people and even Ollie Bell and former England hockey goalie Sam Quek couldn’t disguise the fact that there was enough room for kids to play impromptu football matches.
Apparently, the Jockey Club, who run Epsom, is considering how to deal with the problem. The remedy is simple. Charge a tenner for cars and allow free admission. Then people will begin to flock back, find it an enjoyable experience and one that will develop as the years go on. I’ve never been so embarrassed. Derby Day once was a great British tradition. For most of our much-changed society, it’s an irrelevance. Thank goodness ITV think it’s worth making the effort.
Many say switching from Wednesday was a big mistake but, since Covid, it seems so few people these days have physically to GO to work, that simplification is a red herring.
It’s not as if there’s loads of competition from other sports at this time of year. On Saturday, England played a World Cup qualifying match against Andorra. Who? Our brave boys, rated number four in the world, hammered the opposition (rated 173 – I didn’t know there were that many countries) by a single goal to nil. Some of them are on £300k a week. Worth every penny I’d say.
Aidan O’Brien considers the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby the most likely next port of call for Lambourn following his Epsom heroics on Saturday.
A son of dual Derby winner Australia, the three-year-old made virtually every yard of the running in the premier Classic under Wayne Lordan, providing O’Brien with his 11th Betfred Derby success.
Speaking on Racing TV’s Luck on Sunday programme, the Ballydoyle handler reported his three Derby runners to have returned home none the worse, with Lambourn’s stablemates Delacroix and The Lion In Winter set to drop back in trip after finishing ninth and 14th respectively.
“The horses have been out for a walk and a pick of grass (this morning) and everybody seems very happy with them,” said O’Brien.
"Lambourn's ran them RAGGED in the #EpsomDerby" 😮💨
“We were expecting Wayne was probably going to go forward to make the running on Lambourn – unless there was someone going very fast he was going to end up in front and that’s what happened. Wayne gave him a great ride, he had to be aggressive from the gates and he is a horse that stays very well.”
O’Brien felt there were excuses for Delacroix, the chosen mount of Ryan Moore, and the Colin Keane-ridden The Lion In Winter.
He added: “It got a little bit rough up the hill, I think Ryan got chopped up at the top of the hill and Colin ended up a little bit more forward than he thought he was going to be and out a little bit.
“To have one horse in any race and it go right is very difficult, so if you have three in a race it’s usually not going to go right for them all.
“We learnt that Wayne’s horse stays very well and is a very straightforward, uncomplicated horse, we learnt Colin’s horse could be a miler, so he was probably a mile out of his ground, and it’s very possible that Ryan’s horse is a mile-and-a-quarter horse, even though their races didn’t go as well as they would have wanted.
“In the Derby every year you get fairly straightened out and sort out what you are or you aren’t. The Derby and the Oaks are the races that expose the whole three-year-old generation, their flaws and their weaknesses and their strengths. You usually know where you’re going after it.”
Aidan O’Brien is interviewed by the media following Lambourn’s Derby success (David Davies/The Jockey Club)
On future plans for the winner, he said: “The lads (owners) will make that decision and we’ll see how he is when he gets back cantering in 10 days, but it looks like he’s an Irish Derby horse and it looks like the Curragh would really suit him.”
The trainer also praised the winning rider, who was winning his first Derby.
“Wayne is an unbelievable horseman and the most genuine, uncomplicated person you’ll ever meet in your life,” O’Brien added.
“He’s grateful for everything and expects nothing – that’s Wayne totally. He’ an unbelievable person to work with and an unbelievable rider, horseman and jockey all rolled into one.”
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A lot can happen in 24 hours – just ask Wayne Lordan. On Friday afternoon Oaks victory aboard Whirl was in sight, only to be denied late by Ryan Moore and Minnie Hauk. A day later Betfred Derby glory was his when an inspired front-running ride aboard willing partner Lambourn turned the ultimate test into a formality.
However, the Lordan story does not begin and end within two days in June and when the 43-year-old was unshipped by San Antonio half a mile from home in the 2023 Irish Derby, some may have been forgiven for thinking that would be the end of his Classic dreams.
Lordan suffered fractures to his legs and elbow, as well as a nasty laceration to his arm in an incident which left him not only knocked out but spending eight months on the sidelines.
Lambourn blitzes the opposition for a brilliant Derby triumph. Yet another for that genius Aidan O’Brien pic.twitter.com/G16mEShLR8
It is often said that loyalty is a two-way street and during his darkest days he knew he could count on Aidan O’Brien.
The master of Ballydoyle was ready and waiting to repay one of his most trusted lieutenants for years of service and when the moment came, Lordan delivered a sublime ride to provide O’Brien with a record-extending 11th winner of the premier Classic.
“Racing is a tough game and lots of jockeys get injured and thankfully I had the support of Aidan and everybody at Coolmore to help you get back,” said Lordan.
“I suppose when you are coming back to ride horses like this it gives you an even stronger focus and I was lucky I had such a good job to come back to.
“I never wanted to be negative so always told myself I would be fine even when it was tough. I tried to stay focused and got in the gym and just told myself I would soon be back.”
Aidan O’Brien tells press conference host Martin Kelly what it means to win another Derby (Adam Morgan/PA)
When riding for O’Brien it is far from picking up scraps once Moore has had his say from the swelling team of Ballydoyle Classic prospects.
But for a man who had finished third for O’Brien aboard Japan (2019) and subsequent Irish Derby hero Los Angeles 12 months ago, there was only one colt for him this time around, as O’Brien explained.
“I knew there were two horses Wayne wanted to ride this weekend and once Ryan knew what he was going to ride, Lambourn and Whirl were the ones Wayne wanted,” said O’Brien.
“When I had been going round the yard in the evening the lads were telling me what was going on and I knew who he wanted which made it very easy for me to put him on.
“Wayne said to me coming out of the parade ring this horse is on fire today and that was before the race. He’s given him an unbelievable ride and he’s a special fellow.”
Wayne Lordan with Lambourn after winning the Betfred Derby (John Walton/PA)
With Moore and big-race favourite Delacroix only ninth and Irish champion Colin Keane and The Lion In Winter even further adrift, the stage was set for Lordan to steal the show and he had the perfect co-star for what was a spellbinding display in what is arguably still the biggest race of them all.
“He was the first string for me anyway, so I was happy,” explained Lordan.
“When you’re getting into racing, this is the race you always want to ride in. I’m lucky that I work for Aidan and get to ride good horses and get opportunities.
“I’ve run well in the Derby before and lost nothing in defeat, but I’m just glad today it worked out.
“I was happy once I passed the line, but there is always horses flying home here and yesterday I was thought I was going well then Ryan passed me in the last 50 yards.
“I knew the ones coming to get me would have to stay well and there was always chance they would, but thankfully my horse is a tough, genuine horse.”
Wayne Lordan and Aidan O’Brien with the Betfred Derby trophy (John Walton/PA)
After eight years of working for an operation created to thrive at Epsom in early June, Lordan’s winning ride was one perhaps honed to perfection at the Ballydoyle training centre of excellence.
Now he has his name etched forever on the long and distinguished roll of honour of the blue riband.
O’Brien explained: “Everything at Ballydoyle is about Epsom and this is how the thoroughbred breed is assessed every year.
“Everything at Ballydoyle is left-handed and every piece of work they do they practice going round our Tattenham Corner, even the sprinters.
“It’s the ultimate test really and it has to be that. It’s great for Wayne to win the Derby, he’s a massive part of our team and he rides so many of our big horses in work.
“He’s in every day and it’s a privilege to have him. He’s so straightforward and such a team player, but he can be ruthless when he has to be and he’s strong and determined.”
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Lambourn provided Aidan O’Brien with his 11th victory in the Betfred Derby when making almost all the running in the Epsom showpiece.
Viewed in the build up to the premier Classic as a third string for the yard behind the Ryan Moore-ridden 2-1 favourite Delacroix and The Lion In Winter, he led the field down Tattenham Corner and pulled further clear inside the final furlong under Wayne Lordan.
Just as he had in the Chester Vase, Charlie Johnston’s Lazy Griff (50-1) chased him home, this time three and three-quarter lengths behind the 13-2 winner, with Joseph O’Brien’s Tennessee Stud third.
O’Brien said: “Wayne gave him him an incredible ride. I’m delighted for Wayne, he’s a great fellow, he does so much hard work.
“Everybody knew what he was going to do, he’s very straightforward, Wayne knew he’d stay so he went forward.
“He’s a very fit, genuine horse. He’s a typical Australia so it’s incredible and I’m delighted for Wayne.
“It’s incredible for everyone that we trained Australia to win the Derby and his sire as well, Galileo. I’m just a small part of it, everybody puts in so much, I can’t tell you what a privilege it is.
“Australia was a great Derby winner and his horses are so straightforward, just like him.
Aidan O’Brien congratulates Wayne Lordan aboard Lambourn (PA)
“Lambourn was second to Delacroix first time out and we took him to Chester and we know you have to be on your game and you have to stay and that’s the way he was. Ryan loved him at Chester, but he couldn’t ride them all.
“I’d say he’s probably an Irish Derby horse, but he will get further as well, he’s very uncomplicated.
“Ryan said he got taken out of his ground over halfway so his chance was over, Colin (Keane) said The Lion In Winter wasn’t going forward so it was maybe the track or the ground, we’ll see.
“Wayne obviously got the fractions 100 per cent and Joseph’s horse ran a stormer in third, so it’s unbelievable.”
O’Brien added: “We knew he wasn’t going to stop and we knew every inch he gained he wasn’t going to give back, so it was going to be difficult if you were on the back foot.
Pat Keating leads Lambourn away (PA)
“He showed at Chester he doesn’t stop and Wayne said he let Ryan have the Oaks yesterday (finished second with Whirl), but he wasn’t going to give this one up!
“Everyone knew he was going to go and they were happy for him to go, but it just got a little bit rough back there, that’s the way it is.
“He’d been working well since Chester and Dean (Gallagher) has been riding him in his work along with Wayne and they were very happy with him. Ryan can’t ride them all, but I think it was always going to be one of the other two, Delacroix or The Lion In Winter.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/280548667-scaled.jpg12802560https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-07 14:46:502025-06-07 15:15:14Lambourn leads them all a merry dance in the Derby
Ruling Court will join elite company if he can supplement his 2000 Guineas success with victory in the Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday – but trainer Charlie Appleby has warned his participation could be in doubt if significant rainfall hits the track.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given one is run over a straight mile and the second takes place over a turning mile and a half, few horses have landed the first two Classics of the British season, with only three managing to do so since the great Nijinsky completed the Triple Crown 45 years ago.
Nashwan claimed Guineas and Derby glory in 1989, but it took a horse as brilliant as Sea The Stars two decades later to repeat the feat before Camelot did the same in 2012, after which he came up narrowly short in his Triple Crown quest in the St Leger.
Charlie Appleby talks to the press after the 2000 Guineas (Joe Giddens/PA)
Appleby, who has trained two previous Derby winners in Masar (2018) and Adayar (2021), is hoping Ruling Court can etch his name into the history books, but said at Epsom on Friday: “We’re just on weather watch. There’s not as much rain around – we were forecast showers this afternoon and it’s been a lovely, drying day.
“We know what this track can do in these conditions, the horse is in great form and I’m looking forward to him running, (but) I will just highlight that if all of a sudden we get a deluge (of rain) and the ground becomes very testing, then conversations will have to be had during the build-up to the race over whether we participate or not.
“So there is a warning out there, but I think we’ll be OK. It looks as though the weather has broken up a bit and the forecast tonight doesn’t look as though it’s going to be quite as severe as it was first forecast to be.”
Masar and William Buick winning the Derby (Adam Davy/PA)
Like Masar, Ruling Court will be ridden by William Buick, who said: “He’s not too dissimilar from Masar. They have completely different pedigrees, but Masar was a good third in the Guineas and again went to Epsom having not run beyond a mile. They are not similar horses but have not too dissimilar profiles.
“Masar winning the Derby was the highlight of my career. I’d ridden in it enough before and been placed before and I thought I’d know how it would feel to win it, but it was an amazing day.”
On whether his mount could be a Triple Crown contender, he added: “I got asked about it before the Guineas and there were still three races to go!
“Ruling Court is heading into the most important race now. I’ll answer the question after Saturday as I don’t think I can answer it in a sensible way right now.”
Delacroix has done everything right so far this year (Damien Eagers/PA)
The biggest threat to Ruling Court appears to be Aidan O’Brien, who has saddled a record 10 Derby winners, including the last two and eight in the last 13 years.
His chief hope this weekend appears to be Delacroix, who has impressed in winning the Ballysax Stakes and the Derby Trial at Leopardstown this spring and is the chosen mount of Ryan Moore.
“Everything has gone well with him, he’s won his two trials and we always thought of him last year as a potential Derby horse,” said O’Brien.
“We’ve been very happy with both of his runs. We found out that he gets a strongly-run mile and a quarter and there’s every chance that he will get a mile and a half.
“He has form on all types of ground and he’s a big, powerful horse. We feel he has gone the right way every week really.”
The Lion In Winter has it to prove in the Derby (Niall Carson/PA)
At the start of the year Delacroix’s stablemate The Lion In Winter was at the head of ante-post lists for the Derby, but an interrupted spring campaign and defeat in the Dante at York have dented his reputation.
“He’d only the two runs as a two-year-old, winning his maiden at the Curragh and then winning the Acomb at York. The Acomb is over seven furlongs on a quick track and you’re never sure, but we always thought that there was a strong possibility that he could (be a Derby horse),” O’Brien added.
“He’s a good traveller, that’s what he did in the Acomb and the Dante. I think Ryan was very happy with the way he travelled in the Dante, he travelled down the straight well and as he was getting ready to have a go he just got a little bit chopped and with a horse needing the run as badly as he did, that would be a big disadvantage to him.
“Everything has gone well since York and we couldn’t have asked any more from him really.”
The Ballydoyle handler’s trio is completed by Chester Vase winner Lambourn, of whom he said: “He had a lovely run first time and then he ran a lovely race in Chester. There’s no doubt he looks like a horse that will stay further, he’s straightforward and obviously he got the trip in Chester well.
“You couldn’t be happier with him at Chester as we knew it would be plenty sharp enough for him, but he still coped with it and we’re looking forward to seeing him run again.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/279961744-scaled.jpg12802560https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-06 16:01:112025-06-06 16:01:11Appleby offers note of caution ahead of Ruling Court’s Derby bid
Minnie Hauk just got the better of stablemate Whirl as Aidan O’Brien again dominated the Betfred Oaks at Epsom.
Desert Flower, the short-priced favourite and 1000 Guineas winner, was one of the first under pressure before stamina became an issue, although to her credit she stayed on bravely to finish third.
Up front it was the Ballydoyle pair that pulled a long way clear, but it took all of the final furlong for Ryan Moore’s mount to get on top of long-time leader Whirl, with the 9-2 chance eventually winning by a neck.
O’Brien said: “I’ve been delighted with this filly, she’s got a great team around her and I’m so grateful to everybody.
Minnie Hauk just got the better of her stablemate (John Walton/PA)
“She’s a very classy filly. She was just ready to run at Chester, she barely made it, but she made abnormal improvement from Chester, which we thought she might – it was all class rather than stamina or fitness, she just has a lot of class.
“Ryan gave her a beautiful ride, he loved her the last day and he loved her again today so it’s very exciting.
“I’d say she’s still a bit green. Obviously at Chester she learned a lot, but she was always going to improve with racing.”
He added: “What you love about her is she’s a great traveller with a lot of class, Ryan said he was going very easy early on, so usually that means she can step up a couple of grades into even higher class races – she could take on the boys if the lads decide it. I’m delighted for them to have another filly like this.”
Of the runner-up he said: “Whirl ran a great race, she stays, she’s by Wootton Bassett and it is very unusual what they are doing, they are speed horses but a lot are staying as well.
— Epsom Downs Racecourse (@EpsomRacecourse) June 6, 2025
“She was fighting back again at the line, that’s incredible really.”
Moore said: “She began well and travelled strong early and I just wanted to make sure I was in a position to do what I wanted when I wanted.
“She just travelled a bit too strong and fell asleep on me then after I asked her to relax. The filly in front is a good filly and kept building the whole way and I just had to ask my filly to go to her and she quickened up very smartly and got there easily.
“Whirl came back and my filly found a little bit more. I think she’ll improve for the experience and as far as three-year-old fillies go she’s very good.
“She’ll be (going for the) Irish Oaks/Nassau Stakes, that sort of thing, and we’ll go from there. She’s a lightly-raced filly and should improve.”
Moore added: “I rode some exceptional fillies in this race, Love and Minding spring to mind and Snow Fairy as well. She’s got a way to go, but she’s open to any amount of improvement.”
While the Irish Oaks is on O’Brien’s radar for Minnie Hauk, he also has one eye on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp in October.
He said: “I would say there is every possibility this filly could be an Arc filly as she can go a lot stronger tempo than they went today, so that means she would be happy amongst the older horses.
“She’s a classy filly and the improvement from here to Chester has been abnormal. She was a middle-distance filly working like a Guineas filly and when that happens it’s a little bit different.
“The Irish Oaks is always close to our hearts and then there’s the Yorkshire Oaks and the French trials and all those races are open to her before the Arc, but I think she’s very classy and I think she’s only going to improve.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/62f04410-519a-4494-a19b-12ecfaf087cf.jpg7301459https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-06 15:19:222025-06-06 15:50:14Minnie marvellous for O’Brien and Moore at Epsom
Aidan O’Brien’s St Leger hero Jan Brueghel held off Calandagan in a thrilling finish to the Betfred Coronation Cup at Epsom.
Unbeaten when winning the world’s oldest Classic at Doncaster, he had been aimed at the Melbourne Cup later that year but was ruled out by the local vets and was then beaten on his return to action this spring in a Group Three.
Like so many O’Brien horses he improved enormously from his first run to his second and while the patiently-ridden Calandagan looked like gaining the upper hand more than once, the 8-13 favourite could never get in front and went down by half a length.
O’Brien said of the 100-30 winner: “He’s a very tough horse and Ryan (Moore) gave him a class ride. He doesn’t surrender.
“He improved a lot from the last day and he was still pricking his ears.”
WHAT A BATTLE 🔥
Calandagan drew upsides but was unable to pass the determined Jan Brueghel who plunders the Group 1 Betfred Coronation Cup for Ryan Moore 💥
He went on: “He was unbeaten last year and he was the biggest penalty kick ever in the Melbourne Cup, but didn’t get to run.
“Ryan has given him an incredible ride and got him balanced and into a lovely rhythm. They started to race from a long way out, but it was incredible in the straight how he carried on.
“Everyone knew it was going to be a good gallop and Wayne Lordan (on Continuous) was there to ensure it was a good gallop, all everyone wanted was a solidly-run race and Ryan felt they were going fast enough for him.
“I thought Wayne was excellent at setting the pace and everyone was happy to get a lead off Wayne and when you get a race run at a suitable pace you know what distance you can go next or what not to. This way everyone learns.
Jan Brueghel edges out Calandagan (John Walton/PA)
“At Group One level he is a mile-and-a-half-plus horse and he’s a very tough horse who would still be unbeaten if I hadn’t run him at the Curragh.
“It’s was a lovely run first time back and it was only over a mile and a quarter and he was beaten by a good horse of Joseph’s (O’Brien, Galen). It was a bit unfair what I did pitching him in over that trip, but I needed to get him out early.
“He’s a very brave horse and if you pass him slowly you’re in trouble.”
This race was originally slated for Illinois prior to the shuffling of the Ballydoyle pack following Kyprios’ retirement and O’Brien added: “Everyone was standing in line behind Kyprios and he was always going to get first preference and there would be no move made on anything if he was going to Gold Cup.
Jan Brueghel after winning the Coronation Cup (Adam Morgan/PA)
“When he was retired Illinois was put in there and this fella came into Illinois’ position. He was going to go for a Group One in Longchamp but then slotted in here.”
Moore said: “He’s only been beaten once and he’s a very good horse. He’s a Classic winner and still improving and we’re still learning. Hopefully we’ll keep learning about him.
“He was headed there and battled back, but he’s a tough horse.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/280533550-scaled.jpg12802560https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-06 14:04:272025-06-06 14:55:12Jan Brueghel holds off Calandagan in Coronation Cup thriller
Run over 1m4f the Epsom Oaks is the third of the five English Classics to be run each season and is for 3 year-old fillies.
Did you know? Trainers John Gosden and Aidan O'Brien have won 10 of the last 11 runnings between them and O'Brien has 10 total wins (and counting).
Here at GeeGeez we take a look back at recent winners and highlight the key trends and trainer stats ahead of the 2025 Epsom race – this year run on Friday 6th June 2025 at Epsom racecourse.
23/23 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
20/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
19/23 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
15/23 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
14/23 – Favourites that were placed
14/23 – Won last time out
9/23 – Irish-trained winners
8/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (10 in total)
6/23 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
6/23 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
5/23 – Returned a double-figure price
4/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden
2/23 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/23 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/23 – Had run at the course before
8 of the last 18 favourites were unplaced
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 10 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 11 runnings
O’Brien and Gosden have won 10 of the last 11 runnings between them
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 10/1
8 past Oaks winners won the Musidora at York earlier that season
Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 8 of the last 23 runnings
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Moments Of Joy may have earned herself a place on Aidan O’Brien’s Royal Ascot team after upsetting better-fancied stablemate Minerva in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden at Leopardstown.
Minerva, a 1.5million guineas yearling purchase in October and a daughter of Frankel, was the 8-15 favourite to make a successful start to her career in the hands of Ryan Moore, with fellow Ballydoyle runner Moments Of Joy a 3-1 shot under Wayne Lordan.
While Minerva looked all at sea from an early stage, Justify filly Moments Of Joy battled her way to the front in the home straight and found more once challenged by Little Sure Shot to emerge victorious by half a length. Minerva got the hang of things late on to finish four lengths further behind in third.
Ballydoyle representative Chris Armstrong said: “Aidan felt they were two lovely fillies coming here and they have both never been away.
“Ryan’s filly was very green, but he really likes her. Even in the parade ring she was very green, but the way she finished off was a positive. Wayne’s filly was more professional. They went a solid pace, and it caught them out early.
“We’ll see how she comes out of this and she could be one for the Chesham (at Royal Ascot). She’s a fine, big, scopey filly with a great temperament and there would be no trouble stepping up in trip.”
Trainer Ger O’Leary also has Royal Ascot ambitions for Love Billy Boy (7-2), who provided jockey Wayne Hassett with a winner on his 19th birthday in the Leopardstown Golf & Driving Range Apprentice Handicap.
“We have him entered in the Royal Hunt Cup in Ascot and he might get a few pounds that would get him into that,” said O’Leary.
“There is another race on the Thursday, a seven-furlong 0-105 handicap (Buckingham Palace Stakes), so we’re going to enjoy tonight and talk about going across the water then.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/280188904-scaled.jpg12802560https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-05 15:58:412025-06-05 16:25:15Moments Of Joy races into Ascot contention with Leopardstown success
Flushing Meadows served an ace on debut at the Curragh, as Aidan O’Brien unleashed some smart juvenile prospects at the Kildare track.
The son of Wootton Bassett was sent off at 5-2 in the hands of Ryan Moore and made it game, set and match with ease in the Businessplus.ie Irish EBF Maiden, surging to an impressive length-and-a-half success in the six-furlong event.
A Royal Ascot tilt may come too soon for the exciting two-year-old, but O’Brien has his eye on a return to Irish racing HQ for Group Two action later this month.
Flushing Meadows (Wootton Bassett x Hence) strikes on debut as yet another exciting two-year-old scores this term for Ryan Moore and Aidan O'Brien @curraghracepic.twitter.com/1tUCJVbu76
“I’m delighted with him, he’s a lovely horse,” said O’Brien.
“He was never away and he’ll come forward loads. He’ll have no problem getting seven furlongs.
“The reason those horses were here was in case they were Ascot horses. Ryan said he’s lovely, but that Ascot might be a little bit too quick for him and to give him a little bit of time.
“He doesn’t have to step up in trip and he might come back here for the Railway Stakes.”
Flushing Meadows was bringing up a double for the Ballydoyle team after Moore got a fine tune from Amadeus Mozart in the opening Sky Bet For The Fans Irish EBF Maiden
Amadeus Mozart opened his account at the Curragh (Gary Carson/PA)
Another son of Wootton Bassett, he was the well-backed 10-11 favourite for his racecourse bow and although asked to knuckle down before two furlongs out, responded to his rider’s encouragement to get the better of also-promising stablemate Dorset by half a length.
It is a race O’Brien has won with Lope Y Fernandez (2019) and Point Lonsdale (2021) in the past and the leading players could prove key members for the Ballydoyle team in the future.
O’Brien said: “They are lovely big horses, they were never away so they are going to come forward plenty.
“Ryan liked him (the winner). He said he was a lovely horse and he wouldn’t mind stepping up.
“He’ll be a lovely horse next year, he’s a very big horse. He was very green.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/1e0a0963-db0d-44cf-9ffe-7f39eb517a0b.jpg5001000https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-04 16:55:402025-06-04 16:55:40O’Brien serves an ace with Flushing Meadows at the Curragh
The Lion In Winter will have to defy stall 19 if the one-time ante-post favourite for the Betfred Derby is to bounce back at Epsom, where he has been overlooked by Ryan Moore in favour of Delacroix.
Aidan O’Brien’s colt – who will be ridden by Colin Keane – lost his unbeaten record in the Dante and as well as aiming to emulate Workforce in overcoming defeat at York to prevail in the blue riband, he now has the widest draw of all to overcome.
Stablemate and current market leader Delacroix fared only marginally better in stall 14, while O’Brien’s third representative, Lambourn, the Chester Vase winner, is in stall 10 under Wayne Lordan.
Charlie Appleby’s 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court drew stall seven, as the Godolphin runner attempts to keep his Triple Crown dreams alive.
For the first time ever, the race was subject to 72-hour declarations, with Epsom hoping the change helps to build anticipation ahead of the premier Classic.
There will be a second runner in the Godolphin blue as Saeed bin Suroor’s Tornado Alert (11), fourth in the Guineas, also runs for Sheikh Mohammed’s operation.
Ralph Beckett’s Pride Of Arras arrives unbeaten and a smooth winner of the Dante, which is traditionally one of the strongest trials, but he is posted wide in 16, with stablemate Stanhope Gardens on the inside in two.
John and Thady Gosden also have multiple chances with Damysus (15) and Nightwalker (five), who were second and fifth in the Dante.
There are two runners from France in Francis-Henri Graffard’s Midak (four) and Henri-Francois Devin’s New Ground (17), with the pair both supplemented for the race on Monday.
Charlie Johnston has declared both Lazy Griff (three), second to Lambourn at Chester, and Green Storm (eight), the mount of Billy Loughnane.
Al Wasl Storm (13), Nightime Dancer (nine), Rogue Impact (one), Sea Scout (18), Tennessee Stud (12) and Tuscan Hills (six) complete the list.
Epsom’s clerk of the course Andrew Cooper expects the ground to ride on the easy side of good at the weekend.
He told Racing TV: “It’s been a difficult spring, it’s been so dry, this is my 30th Derby and I’ve never known such a prolonged dry period.
“It’s been challenging, it hasn’t been great for grass, it’s been constant irrigation just to get where we want to be.
“Here and now I would call it good, that follows 3.5 millimetres of rain yesterday afternoon which was forecast but very localised.
“It looks like another spell of rain is coming tomorrow and Saturday, with the potential to have some heavy showers. It’s unsettled for sure. On a raceday it doesn’t take a lot to start shifting descriptions.
“I can’t see a scenario with ground any quicker than good on Saturday and there’s every indication we’ll be on the slower side through the two days.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/276898726-scaled.jpg12802560https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-04 11:02:382025-06-04 12:45:26The Lion In Winter drawn widest of all at Epsom
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