Tag Archive for: Aidan O’Brien

O’Brien expecting Illinois progress after Gold Cup defeat

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Aidan O’Brien feels there is room for improvement in the staying division with Illinois, after his planned super-sub had to make do with the silver medal in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

Less than a month ago the Ballydoyle handler expected to be saddling dual Gold Cup hero Kyprios in his bid for a 10th victory in the two-and-a-half-mile feature, but the recurrence of an old injury and his star stayer’s subsequent retirement left O’Brien with no option but to shuffle his pack.

Illinois looked bound for the Coronation Cup at Epsom following his winning reappearance in Chester’s Ormonde Stakes, but Jan Brueghel successfully stepped in to fill that void, meaning Illinois was asked to run over a full mile further in Berkshire and he found Kyprios’ old rival Trawlerman too strong.

O’Brien said: “We thought Illinois would be a Gold Cup horse next year and obviously the plan was Kyprios would come here this year and Illinois would step up next year.

“The plan was for him to go to the Coronation and I was training him as a good mile-and-a-half horse, and then when Kyprios retired we switched him to this race.

“We have to be happy with the run and he had a lovely preparation the last day. Maybe if we knew he was coming here straight away, we might of had him going earlier and maybe lighter.”

While Illinois was seemingly put in his place by Trawlerman, O’Brien would not shirk a potential rematch in the Goodwood Cup, adding: “He might go to Goodwood and meet this horse again and I would imagine he will progress again then.

“He got tired at the two-furlong pole today, like a lot of horses do, and we will see if we can improve him another little bit for this distance.

“It shows how good Kyprios was as Trawlerman had been second to him a couple of times, I think.”

Illinois was beaten seven lengths by Trawlerman and was a further seven lengths clear of Saeed bin Suroor’s Dubai Future in third.

“He did well and he stayed. I put a hood and cheekpieces on him which made him nice and relaxed in the race,” said bin Suroor.

“James (McDonald) gave him a good ride and he’s tough – he’s a horse who at nine years old is still young at heart. He’s doing really well and we are very happy with him.

“I think we will go to Goodwood next. The winner is a good horse, but I am pleased with my horse’s run.”

The disappointment of the race was perhaps French raider Candelari, who had won four of his five previous starts for Francis Henri-Graffard but was a well-beaten sixth on this occasion.

Graffard said: “He was travelling nicely when the pace was fine but when the winner started to quicken and upped the pace, my horse was quite surprised.

“To come here in this type of race, they need the experience. In France they don’t learn an awful lot as they crawl in races then sprint. This horse has a great turn of foot but he can’t use his turn of foot in a race like that over that distance.

“He gained a lot of experience there and he is only four and still improving, but it is still disappointing. I need to learn and think how I can get him better to be competitive.

“I think he is still an exciting stayer, as you saw from his win in France, but today was a different game over a very long distance.

“I have a lot of faith in him and six months ago he hadn’t seen a racecourse, so he has come a long way in a short space of time.”

Garden Of Eden blossoms in Ribblesdale Stakes

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Garden Of Eden continued her progress to provide trainer Aidan O’Brien with a record sixth victory in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The Ballydoyle handler saddled three runners in the Group Two contest, with Ryan Moore siding with Garden Of Eden (7-1), who struggled in successive Group races in the spring but raised her game to claim a Listed prize at Naas on her most recent appearance.

Island Hopping was deployed in a pacesetting role, but her early exertions took their toll from the home turn, while Garden Of Eden galloped on powerfully up the straight to score by three and a quarter lengths from Understudy, with 2-1 favourite Catalina Delcarpio back in third.

O’Brien said: “I was impressed with that, I’m delighted. She’s getting better which is great.

“We always thought stepping up in trip would help her and we stepped her up to a mile and a quarter the last day and she improved a lot.

“She’s by Saxon Warrior and when they go up in distance they do get better so she obviously improved for the step up.

“The Irish Oaks would be a possibility, but she could also go to America for a Grade One over there, we will have to see.”

Charles Darwin lives up to his billing in Norfolk Stakes

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Charles Darwin enhanced his already lofty reputation with a dominant front-running victory in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot.

A full-brother to a top-class two-year-old in Blackbeard, the imposing Aidan O’Brien-trained son of No Nay Never finished fourth on his Curragh debut but had since impressed with victories at Navan and Naas.

Those who sent him off at odds of 8-13 will have had few concerns, with Charles Darwin soon bowling along in front under Ryan Moore, finding plenty once challenged and going away at the line to readily account for Wise Approach and Sandal’s Song.

“He’s lovely, Ryan always loved him and everyone always loved him at home,” said O’Brien.

“He’s a big, powerful, strong horse. He really looks like a four-year-old racing against two-year-olds.

“I didn’t know if Ryan was going to make the running or drop him in, but he decides that. He always thought he had loads left with the way he came on the bridle.

“He’s very quick, a big and mature physical and everyone who rides him says he has a very good mind as well – he’s very exciting.

“We were hoping he would get a lead as he never sees the front at home, he’s very strong and very quick.”

On the Ballydoyle pecking order regarding juveniles, O’Brien added: “Albert Einstein is always just something like we’ve never seen before, the way he works.

“This horse is very fast – he’s a sprinter, I don’t know how far he’s going to get, because he’s very quick, and the horse the other day (Gstaad) looks like he’s going to get seven, which means he could get a mile.”

Paddy Power made Charles Darwin 4-1 to become the first two-year-old since Kingsgate Native in 2007 to win York’s Nunthorpe Stakes later in the summer, with O’Brien suggesting connections would have to consider that event if the speedy colt continues to thrive over the minimum trip.

“It would obviously be possible as he’s fast, he’s big and he’s mature,” said O’Brien.

“The lads will decide and it’s obviously really early days to be talking about that yet, but it would be possible.

“He’s obviously a Middle Park Stakes-type of horse and obviously there is the July meeting at Newmarket and Goodwood to come, so there’s plenty of races to come.”

Charlie Appleby was determined to take the positives from Wise Approach’s run in second after he bounced back from defeat at York.

Appleby said: “We felt we were very much drawn on the wrong side, but the main thing about today was setting him up for the future and riding a very different race to what we saw at York. We wanted to drop him in and we didn’t feel there was the strength there to carry us through the race if we rode him handy.

“We made the decision to drop in, ride a race and get him to finish and he’s done all of that, so finishing second to a very high-class racehorse in Charles Darwin, you have to take plenty of positives.

“There’s going to be a nice pot in this horse and I think although he’s versatile enough for five or six furlongs, we can probably look for six now and ride a similar sort of race. With racing he’s learning.

“I’m not sure where we go, we have Maximized teed-up for the July Stakes at Newmarket and his form is working out nicely after the Windsor Castle, but you can never have too many in them. There will be options and I’ll move them around accordingly.”

There was not to be a second Royal Ascot winner for US handler George Weaver, but connections can remain positive about the new Wathnan Racing acquisition who will now be targeted at the Breeders’ Cup.

Wathnan’s US representative Case Clay said: “George really knows what he is doing with these two-year-olds and his assistant Blair (Golen) has done a wonderful job since getting here.

“As you saw in the paddock beforehand he is a very straightforward horse and I’m very proud of his effort. There was a moment there I got very excited, but he was beaten by a very good colt and it was such a valiant effort in defeat.

“We will take him back to the US and we’ll target the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and work backwards from that and try to get there.”

O’Brien looks to Illinois in search for perfect 10 in Gold Cup

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Illinois will go into unknown territory when he plays the role of super-sub for Aidan O’Brien in his search for a 10th victory in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

The master of Ballydoyle handler has an unrivalled record in the two-and-a-half-mile feature, with the brilliant four-time winner Yeats, Fame And Glory, Leading Light, Order Of St George and dual scorer Kyprios all featuring on the roll of honour.

Kyprios looked well placed to make it a hat-trick after winning Ireland’s two key trials in the spring, but his subsequent retirement led to a shuffling of the pack and it was last month’s Ormonde Stakes winner Illinois who got the call-up.

O’Brien said: “Everything has gone well so far and we always thought he was a horse who could step into the role of a Gold Cup horse.

“We thought he could do that next year and he was standing in line behind Kyprios, but he’s had his run and it went well.

“We have always thought he would stay the trip, but it’s not until you go past the quarter (mile) pole in the Gold Cup that you find out.”

Trawlerman and Sweet William finished second and third respectively behind Kyprios 12 months ago and the John and Thady Gosden-trained duo are back for another tilt at Gold Cup glory.

Trawlerman in action at Sandown
Trawlerman in action at Sandown (Adam Davy/PA)

Reflecting on Sweet William’s comeback third in last month’s Yorkshire Cup, Gosden senior said: “It was a great run at York as a mile and six (furlongs) would be on the sharp side for him.

“He enjoys the climb at Ascot and he’s solid at two and a quarter miles and as always two and a half takes him into no man’s land, but we’ve been very pleased with his preparation.

“He’s in great order and he’s a wonderful character. He does everything in his own time and hopefully his work (last week) will have sharpened him up nicely.”

Of Trawlerman, he added: “He won the Henry II well and is training nicely. He’s a different type of horse to Sweet William as Trawlerman likes to bowl along, whereas the other comes with a strong late run and to that extent they suit each other rather well as they are not trying to do the same job.

“There’s no Kyprios this year, but it will still be a smart field and it will be a good race with Illinois in there.”

French hopes are carried by Francis-Henri Graffard’s Candelari, who has come a long way since making a winning debut on the all-weather at Chantilly in early December, most recently impressing with a Group One triumph in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at ParisLongchamp.

Nemone Routh, racing manager for the late Aga Khan’s French Studs, said: “We’re very happy with the horse, he worked well last week and it looks like he’s taken his last run very well.

“The question marks are over whether he will stay the distance, we believe he will be because he finishes his races strongly but obviously that is an unknown, and he probably lacks the experience of the rest of the field.

“He only made his debut in December, so he’s only really been racing for six months, but then he’s not got as many miles on the clock as some of the others and I think he’s a natural stayer and a very genuine horse.”

It would be quite a story if Candelari were to win what is arguably the biggest race of the entire week at Royal Ascot given he was very nearly moved on seven months ago.

“He is a horse who has taken us massively by surprise,” Routh added.

“We nearly sold him unraced in November but took him out during the week of the sale because he is so well-bred and he hadn’t had any major setbacks. He’s just a big horse who was quite immature and after we castrated him it took us a while to get him fit again.

“He’s obviously not a flashy worker as he’s a staying horse, but we just felt we’d give him a chance and then Francis found that first race for him on the Fibresand at Chantilly when he was incredibly green, he reared up in the stalls and lost 10 lengths at the start. If you watch the race it’s hilarious and he still won by eight lengths!

“He really did show us something that day and he’s never looked back. It shows that sometimes these horses just need time. They’re not fast, they’re not two-year-olds and he wasn’t really even a three-year-old, but if you give them time they can repay you and he has repaid us in spades.

“It’s been an amazing story already, we think he’s an improving horse and the good thing is he will have his ground as he needs good, fast ground to be at his best.

True Love powers to Queen Mary first for O’Brien

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True Love shed her maiden tag in style with victory in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, True Love had chased home Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes winner and stablemate Gstaad on her latest start and was duly sent off the 9-4 favourite.

True Love took some time to work her way into the race as Zelaina set a scorching early pace, but she stayed on to real effect in the final furlong to beat 100-1 shot Flowerhead, with Patrick Biancone’s American raider Lennilu third.

True Love looked the part
True Love looked the part (John Walton/PA)

It was win number 93 for O’Brien at the big meeting, although rather surprisingly his first in the Queen Mary.

He said: “She’s lovely and in her first run Ryan came in and said they won’t beat her again and then after her second run Wayne (Lordan) said the same thing, that they won’t beat her again, and then you have to consider the two that beat her (Lady Iman and Gstaad) are very good horses.

“Ryan gave her a beautiful ride and Michael (Tabor) has always loved her and always spoken about her. It’s great as her mother (Alluringly) is in foal to City Of Troy and her sister is in foal to Wootton Bassett so it’s marvellous really.

“She was drawn by herself and there was no pace where she was so she had to go and do her own work and that’s what Ryan did, he was excellent on her. She was probably strongest in the last half-furlong and when she got going she really powered away.

“Ryan said he was a little slow to step and a little on the back foot all the time and I think that’s why he was trying to stoke her up a bit, but late on she was really strong.

“She had to work really hard and the only place she was going to get company was out in the middle and Ryan did really well to let her go there. She was under the pump a long way out, but so strong at the line and is obviously high class.

“She’s like a four-year-old really and Ryan thought she would be better when she steps up to six furlongs and she’s a big, mature filly who walks around the ring like a four-year-old, she’s so scopey – she’s something to look forward to.”

On future plans, O’Brien added: “I think we look forward to going up in trip now, the lads will decide that. You would imagine she would have no problem going six furlongs, but she is No Nay Never and he’s a big speed influence always.

“The Queen Mary winner seems to always head to Deauville (Prix Morny) or the Curragh (Airlie Stud Stakes) and that would be the two races really or there is the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket in July. That may come too soon, but we will see how she is.”

Flowerhead on her way to post at Royal Ascot
Flowerhead on her way to post at Royal Ascot (John Walton/PA)

Flowerhead’s trainer Charlie Clover was thrilled to secure a Royal Ascot placing in his first full season with a licence.

He said: “This is a huge start for us, we were struggling away for the first few months but it’s really kicked into gear the past few weeks and it’s been a delight to see the whole team find their feet.

“It’s only a small team but it’s been massively welcome to see these horses run to form and I can’t thank (owner) Amo Racing enough, they’ve done so much for me and my career in helping me get off the ground.

“We liked her at home, we hoped she’d run a nice race but second was a bit of a dream. You can get greedy quite quickly and think you could have won it, who knows?

“I’m delighted to be in the frame and for her to run a big race for owners who are so important to me.”

Biancone plans to head back to America with Lennilu following her run, saying: “She’s only a baby.

“I liked the fact she was the first one off the bridle and she was there at the end, which means she will go a bit further and that is great. We’re happy, she fought all the way.

“We go home, we give her a break. The first plan was to try to bring her here which we did, she’s Grade Two placed now which is good. She’ll have a little vacation and we’ll see her in Del Mar.”

The Richard Hannon-trained Harry’s Girl was pulled up during the race and it was later confirmed the filly had sustained a fatal injury.

Gstaad records sizzling Coventry Stakes success

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Gstaad blew the Coventry Stakes field apart to give Aidan O’Brien an 11th win in the Royal Ascot feature.

Sent off the 7-2 favourite and drawn on the near side, his group appeared to be behind for much of the way before Ryan Moore sent him towards the centre of the track with two furlongs to run.

It never really looked in doubt from there and he came home three lengths clear of 80-1 outsider Do Or Do Not on the far side, with Coppull third at 66-1.

O’Brien said: “I’m absolutely delighted and he looks a very good horse, doesn’t he – you don’t win the Coventry like that often and he was visually very good.

“We’ve always loved him and he’s only had the one run, obviously, but has always worked like a good horse. This was the first horse Ryan rode when he came over in January or February time and he was highly thought of then.

“He’s big, he’s scopey and goes with his head down and is very genuine and he looks like he will get further than six. He has all the attributes.

“I’d imagine we would go for a Group One now and the Prix Morny is what they usually do after winning this.”

The long-time favourite for this race was Gstaad’s stablemate Albert Einstein before he suffered a setback earlier this month, ruling him out of the meeting.”

Comparing his winner to the potential star confined to barracks at Ballydoyle, O’Brien added: “Albert Einstein was always something very different and a very quick horse, incredibly quick from the day we worked him.

“Gstaad is a big horse who travels well and with lots of speed. We always thought this was a top-tier horse alongside Albert, but your man was just so fast it was different.”

Of Do Or Do Not, Ed Walker said: “I’m quite surprised, to be honest! The Coventry is not a race I thought I’d be winning anytime soon, but fair play to Simon (Sadler, owner) he felt like rolling the dice.

“I was quite happy to go and find a forty grand novice at Carlisle, but he ran an absolute blinder and I’m really proud of him. He’s a tough horse.”

Illinois leads eight chasing Gold Cup glory

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Ante-post favourite Illinois headlines eight declarations for Thursday’s Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

His trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the two-and-a-half-mile highlight a record nine times, with four-time winner Yeats and dual hero Kyprios among those to fly the Ballydoyle flag.

Kyprios was expected to bid for a hat-trick this year before suffering a career-ending injury last month, leaving St Leger runner-up Illinois to step into the staying breach.

Godolphin will be double-handed with the John and Thady Gosden-trained Trawlerman, who is ridden by William Buick, and Saeed bin Suroor’s Dubai Future who will be partnered by James McDonald.

The latter finished last behind Candelari in a ParisLongchamp Group One last time out and that Francis-Henri Graffard-trained rival is among the leading candidates here as he bids to become the first French-trained winner of the race since Westerner 20 years ago.

Sagaro Stakes first and second, Yashin and Coltrane renew rivalries, while Sweet William is a second Gosden-trained contender and completes the line up along with Wonder Legend.

Trueshan and Jan Brueghel were the only two horses not declared.

Musidora Stakes second Serenity Prayer heads 11 contenders for the Ribblesdale Stakes, having seen the York form boosted when winner Whirl ran a close second in the Oaks at Epsom.

Paddy Twomey fields Catalina Delcarpio, Garden Of Eden is one of three for O’Brien, with the Gosden team also triple-handed with Life Is Beautiful, Go Go Boots and Understudy.

O’Brien’s Charles Darwin leads 16 chasing Norfolk Stakes glory and French Derby third Detain drops down in class as one of 14 runners in the Hampton Court Stakes.

The King George V Stakes, the Britannia and the closing Buckingham Palace Stakes have all drawn full fields of 19, 30 and 29 respectively.

Gstaad leads Aidan O’Brien’s dual Coventry challenge

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No trainer has won the Coventry Stakes more than Aidan O’Brien and he sends two unbeaten colts for this year’s race in Gstaad and Warsaw.

The Ballydoyle handler has won the premier Royal Ascot juvenile race on 10 occasions and appears to hold an incredibly strong hand yet again.

Gstaad is the choice of Ryan Moore after he triumphed over five furlongs on his debut, beating a stablemate who had finished second in Listed company previously.

“We always though Gstaad was a very nice horse. He obviously won first time when he beat one of our others (True Love) in Navan and we always thought he was a smart colt,” said O’Brien.

“Warsaw ran at Navan and he was one of three (from the stable) because we were just trying to get those who could be possible Ascot horses out and he was obviously on that list.

“He won very nicely there and he obviously hasn’t done much since but he’s in good form. We liked him before he ran and thought he was a possible for Ascot but sometimes when you run them, they are very green and Ascot would come too quick but he wasn’t. You just don’t know until they run, we did always like him.

“Gstaad won nicely and we always thought he was a quality horse and he won’t mind an extra furlong.

“I don’t think it was a hard decision for Ryan.”

Postmodern has the Wathnan Racing team excited at what might be to come.

A son of Too Darn Hot, he was sent to Yarmouth for his one and only run to date and could hardly have been more impressive in victory.

Wathnan also have Underwriter in the field, but retained rider James Doyle has plumped for the Hamad Al Jehani-trained contender.

“I think James is very happy with his decision to ride Postmodern and we’ve been very happy with him since Yarmouth,” said Wathnan’s racing adviser Richard Brown.

“Hamad Al Jehani and his team have done a great job with this colt and he was obviously very impressive that day.

“He’s only run once and it’s a huge ask, but that is what this race is all about and there’s a lot of colts in the same bracket having run once and won well once. We’ll find out how good he is, but he’s certainly a colt we’re all excited about.”

Despite Doyle electing to partner Postmodern, Brown warned the Archie Watson-trained Underwriter (James McDonald) should not be overlooked. Like Postmodern, he is unbeaten after his sole racecourse appearance to date.

“He was very impressive at Ayr and has done everything right since,” continued Brown.

“He’s not to be forgotten, let me tell you, and we’re very lucky we start the week with two big bullets to fire.”

Charlie Appleby’s Military Code has done nothing wrong to date, winning both of his outings, most recently gaining course experience at Ascot when beating Fitzella, who is well fancied for the Albany later in the week.

Appleby told the Godolphin website: “Military Code’s form is rock solid and we are looking forward to stepping him up to six furlongs. He has put up two strong performances to date, including one under a penalty, and should hopefully be very competitive at this level.”

Illinois and Candelari on course for Gold Cup showdown

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Aidan O’Brien’s Illinois and Francis-Henri Graffard’s Candelari have the chance to fill the void left by Kyprios after standing their ground for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

There is a vacancy at the top of the staying tree after the recent retirement of O’Brien’s dual Gold Cup hero, but hopes are high Illinois could prove a ready-made replacement judged on his impressive Ormonde Stakes success at Chester.

O’Brien has also confirmed Coronation Cup hero Jan Brueghel, but Illinois is poised for a mouthwatering showdown with Graffard’s French raider, who announced himself at the top-level with a sublime performance at ParisLongchamp in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier.

John and Thady Gosden’s Trawlerman and Sweet William have been regular bridesmaids to Kyprios and now have the chance of their moment in the spotlight, with the former winning well in his Sandown reappearance.

Andrew Balding’s Coltrane is another regular in this event, but he will have to reverse Sagaro Stakes form with Michael Bell’s Yashin to make his presence felt, with Bell looking to recreate the Gold Cup exploits of Big Orange from 2017.

Saeed bin Suroor has confirmed Dubai Gold Cup scorer Dubai Future, with James Ferguson’s Wonder Legend given the chance to transfer his smart all-weather form on turf.

The 10-strong list is rounded off by Alan King’s stalwart Trueshan, although the warm weather has the potential to once again scupper any hope of him appearing in this race.

See The Fire supplemented for Prince of Wales’s test

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Exciting filly See The Fire has been supplemented to join the likes of Los Angeles and Anmaat in a mouthwatering renewal of Wednesday’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Having performed well at Group One level on several occasions last season, Andrew Balding’s See The Fire could only finish fifth on her Sandown comeback, but bounced back to form with a spectacular 12-length success in last month’s Middleton Stakes at York.

She is now set to take on the boys in the feature event on day two of the Royal meeting after being added to the £1million Prince of Wales’s Stakes at a cost of £70,000.

Los Angeles (left) and Anmaat will lock horns again at Ascot
Los Angeles (left) and Anmaat will lock horns again at Ascot (Niall Carson/PA)

Aidan O’Brien’s Los Angeles denied the Owen Burrows-trained Anmaat by half a length in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last month, with last year’s winner White Birch back in fourth.

All three horses look set to line up on Wednesday, with Anmaat arguably the one open to most improvement given his Tattersalls Gold Cup appearance was his first since winning the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October.

O’Brien has also left in Continuous, while French hopes are set to be carried by Francis-Henri Graffard’s Map Of Stars and Facteur Cheval from Jerome Reynier’s yard. The former has won five of his seven starts to date and was touched off by Sosie in the Prix Ganay on his most recent outing.

Ombudsman (John and Thady Gosden), Certain Lad (Jack Channon) and Royal Champion (Karl Burke) are the others to stand their ground.

Royal Ascot 2025: Analysing The Group 1 Races

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There are three festivals a year I get really excited about, writes Dave Renham. The Cheltenham Festival and Glorious Goodwood are two; and the third, which is soon to be upon us, is of course Royal Ascot. Around this time last year I looked in detail at the big 1-mile handicaps at the meeting - you can catch up with that piece here. This year I am concentrating on the Group 1 races.

Introduction

There are eight Group 1s run at the Royal meeting and they are as follows:

 

 

As would be expected, there is a good mix of different race distances and conditions although there is only one Group 1 race at a distance beyond 1m 2f, the Gold Cup.

In this article I am looking back on the last ten years of these Group 1 contests, trying to find any snippets that may help us when tackling the races this year. Profit and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Market Rank

Let me start by examining the market. I have ranked the runners based on BSP, which is the most accurate way of doing it. Further, it eliminates almost all of the ‘joint’ market positions.

 

 

These races have definitely been market-friendly with the top three betting positions each producing a blind profit. Those fourth in the Betfair betting lists have performed poorly but due to the modest sample we can perhaps assume this is an anomaly. Regardless, it seems that the top three in the betting are the ones to concentrate on.

Group 1 Favourites at Royal Ascot

Narrowing in on favourites, below are the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures for each individual race to help give a better overview of favourite performance in specific races. For the record the average PRB figures for favourites across the eight races combined stands at 0.76.

 

 

There has been quite a variance with Gold Cup favourites performing best, and by some margin. Their actual performance in the Gold Cup has been as follows:

 

 

During the ten year study period the Gold Cup favourite secured five wins, two seconds, a third and two fourths, so no BSP jolly has completely bombed out.

Royal Ascot Group 1s: Top 3 Market Ranks

If we undertake the same type of PRB analysis across the top three in the betting, the graph generally becomes more even:

 

 

The St James’s Palace has the highest figure now with the Gold Cup a close second. Nine of the ten winners of the St James’s Palace came from the top three in the betting (four favourites, three second favs, two third favs).

Conversely, of all the races the Commonwealth Cup has seen fancied runners struggle the most. Favourites have won three of the last ten Commonwealth Cup renewals, but there were no wins for second favourites (two wins for third favs). Quite a few horses that were in the top three of the betting have bombed out with 10 of the 30 failing to finish in the top ten, three of them being favourites.

It should be noted that the four winning Commonwealth Cup favourites in the past decade more than paid for the other six losing jollies, returning a profit of 2.55 units at BSP.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Position

The second area I want to look at is recent performance and specifically LTO finishing position. Here is a breakdown of performance by last day finishing position (I have grouped all horses together that finished fifth or worse LTO):

 

 

The BSP profit for those that finished third LTO has been totalled skewed by the 140.0 BSP winner Khaadem. LTO winners do look the group to concentrate on with over half of the 80 winners having also won on their most recent start. If we combine LTO winners with a position in the top three in the betting, then we see some excellent results: 36 winners from 115 runners (SR 31.13%) for a profit of £30.50 (ROI +26.5%); A/E 1.14.

It is also worth keeping an eye out for LTO winners that won by at least a length in the race prior to Ascot. These runners have scored 18.9% of the time (30 wins from 159) for a profit of £29.13 (ROI +18.3%).

 

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Race Class

Onto looking at the class of race LTO. Here are the splits:

 

 

As we would expect horses that ran in Group 1 company last time have won most often. Those that raced in Group 3 or Listed Class LTO have been profitable, but both have been skewed by very big priced winners going in. Still, Royal Ascot is a meeting where horses fairly consistently win at massive odds.

LTO winners that contested a Group 1 race have actually offered poor value despite a strike rate of close to 30%. The 51 qualifiers lost over 28p in the £ if backing them to repeat the Group 1 win at Royal Ascot.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)

It is time to see whether the timing of the last run before Royal Ascot makes a difference. It should be noted this data does not include French, American or Australian runners as I do not have facility to check those. However, it still applies to over 90% of Ascot runners. Here are my findings:

 

 

As the table shows, I have included 50 to 240 days as a single group simply because there are very few runners within that grouping, and their performance has been poor. I wanted to help highlight the difference between that group and the group absent 241+ days (or eight months-plus).

The biggest cohort had a run between 22 and 35 days prior to Ascot and their results have been positive given the overall context. To give a broader overview let me share the PRB figures for each ‘days off track’ grouping:

 

 

These figures correlate with the win strike rates. The figures for 22 to 35 days and 241 days+ are clearly best. Finally in this section, below is the ten-year performance in Royal Ascot Group 1s of horses from the top three in the betting by days since last run:

 

 

Again, this points to the same two groups (22 to 35 days; 241+ days) as the areas in which to focus from a positive perspective. They would have offered punters very good value over the past ten years.

Royal Ascot Group 1 Trainers

The final area I will consider is that of trainers although it should be noted that data is limited. There are a handful of trainers who have saddled at least 20 runners in Royal Ascot Group 1s in the last ten years, and they are shown in the following table:

 

 

It is important not to take these figures (especially big profit lines) too literally due to the sample sizes. It is probably more prudent to look at the PRB values to give a better general indication of how each trainer's horses have run:

 

 

William Haggas, despite having just one winner from 24, has an excellent PRB figure so it looks like he has been somewhat unlucky in recent years. He has endured five second places,  as well as four thirds and five fourths. Haggas looks a trainer that may offer some placepot/ each way value at the very least next week.

By contrast, Roger Varian’s runners have really struggled although a good proportion of his charges have been bigger prices. Indeed, Charyn, in last year's Queen Anne Stakes is Varian's sole Royal Ascot G1 winner to date. There are sure to be more in future but his seem a little over-bet.

Other trainer titbits to share include the fact that Aidan O’Brien's 13 Group 1 winners in the past decade have all been ridden by Ryan Moore (from 61 rides). All other jockeys riding for O'Brien are a combined 0 from 43 since 2015, although again most of these runners were outsiders. Sticking with O’Brien it seems best to concentrate on those starting favourite or second favourite. They have combined to produce 12 of his 13 winners (from 34 qualifiers) returning a small 2p in the £. Finally, albeit from a very small sample, the Gosden stable has had four winners and four placed runners from just 13 runners aged four.

Summary

The Group 1 races at Royal Ascot are the races that owners, trainers and jockeys covet the most, although any win at the Royal meeting is huge.

In terms of the Group 1s, the most fancied runners - those in the top three in the betting - have fared much the best. Don’t be put off by horses having their first run in more than eight months (241+ days) and we might also consider a break of 22 to 35 days (three to five weeks) as more of a positive than a negative.

A last day win is preferable to other finishing positions and a last time out win coupled with a top three position in the betting market has been a very strong positive. From the training ranks, William Haggas appears to have been quite unlucky in the past decade and certainly I’ll be popping a few of his runners in my placepots at the very least. Aidan O’ Brien runners are worth noting if starting in the top two of the betting and particularly when ridden by Ryan Moore.

Wishing you the best of luck with your Royal Ascot Group 1 wagers.

- DR

Lake Victoria ruled out of Royal Ascot

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Irish 1,000 Guineas heroine Lake Victoria has been ruled out of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Undefeated in five juvenile starts last season, including Group One wins in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, the Cheveley Park and at the Breeders’ Cup, Aidan O’Brien’s filly was beaten into sixth place in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on her return to action but bounced back to her best in the Irish equivalent.

The daughter of Frankel was expected to be a major part of the Ballydoyle handler’s Ascot team next week, but owners Coolmore said in a post on X on Monday: “Lake Victoria will not run at Royal Ascot. She will have an easy few weeks and will return for a late summer/autumn campaign.”

The post also confirmed plans for Minnie Hauk and Whirl after the pair finished first and second in the Betfred Oaks at Epsom on Friday.

It read: “Epsom Oaks winner Minnie Hauk will target the Irish Oaks, while Whirl, who finished runner-up in the Epsom Oaks, will head for the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes.”

Monday Musings: Aidan’s Hat-Trick Heroics

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So Aidan and the boys won the Betfred-sponsored Coronation Cup, Oaks and Derby last weekend, picking up around £1.5 million in the process, writes Tony Stafford. Lambourn, the well-backed third favourite on Derby Day, far out-performed his much more talked-about stable companions The Lion In Winter and short-priced favourite Delacroix in almost a repetition of Serpentine’s all-the-way easy victory under Emmet McNamara at the height of Covid five years ago.

Ryan Moore had selected Delacroix from the gang of trials winners rather than Chester Vase hero Lambourn and, in retrospect, it was maybe a little strange as Aidan always sends his best candidates to Chester, its timing best suiting Epsom.

People may question the suitability of a one-mile always-turning circuit as a recipe for revealing Epsom Classic talent, but I know Henry Cecil always reckoned that a big horse would be fine around the Roodeye if he was well-balanced. Lambourn certainly is.

He was picked up almost by default by Wayne Lordan, the apparent third string – Colin Keane, the regular Irish champion was on Dante flop The Lion In Winter. But the stamina Lambourn showed in winning the Chester Vase (just beyond 1m4f) last month convinced Wayne to go hard in the first furlong out of the stalls – to wake his mount up as much as anything – as he knew, unlike many in the field, his mount would not fail through lack of staying power.

Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy last year were fully expected winners but two other runnings in the last decade have gone to perceived third or higher strings. Wings Of Eagle, the fifth choice in terms of expectations in 2017 was a 40/1 shot when Padraig Beggy guided him home.

Beggy has been rarely seen since on the racecourse, but he did return to Epsom two years later to partner outsider Sovereign as a pacemaker in the Derby and finished tenth. He then rode him as a 25/1 outsider in the Irish Derby and won it!

McNamara might not have seen much riding action after Serpentine’s triumph, but it’s hardly surprising as he had been combining his riding with studying at Griffith College, Dublin. He graduated from there in 2018 with first-class honours in accountancy and finance in 2018 and works in that capacity in the Coolmore operation. Talk about top-class staff!

Moved across to Ballydoyle when David Wachman, John Magnier’s son-in-law, stopped training to take a behind the scenes role in the Coolmore machine, Lordan was third string to Ryan Moore and Seamie Heffernan until that veteran left the team a couple of years or so ago.

Lordan, one of those outdated characters, a true lightweight, had a serious injury during the 2023 Irish Derby which took eight months to overcome. As he said after Saturday’s triumph, he has a wonderful job. It was only a neck that denied him the Oaks-Derby double when Moore’s mount Minnie Hauk just edged out he and Whirl after another flawless front-running ride around Epsom’s tricky 1m4f course the previous afternoon, showing what jewels are available to the Coolmore number two on which to demonstrate his skills.

The modest Mr Lordan affirmed that he will have been in for work at 7 a.m. as usual yesterday and after no drunken celebratory stupor. Like the trainer he’s a teetotaller.

Aidan O’Brien has now won the Derby and Oaks eleven times each and, for good measure, ten Coronation Cups after Friday’s determined triumph for Jan Brueghel over the odds-on French four-year-old Calandagan. The Francis-Henri Graffard-trained horse was adding to his string of half-hearted second places (now four in a row) behind a typically tough O’Brien stayer.

In all, it’s 47 UK Classics from the 139 that have been contested since his first winning attempt in the 1,000 Guineas in 1998. That’s around 33 per cent. At least everyone else has been able to share the remaining two-thirds although, as time goes on, the dominance if anything is strengthening.

Aidan’s 22 Epsom Classics have all come this century, thus 22 of the 52 to have been run, or 42%! When Michael Tabor and Mrs Sue Magnier add their joint win with the Andre Fabre-trained Pour Moi, they are on 12.

To add to the winner, Coolmore’s partners also own Tennessee Stud, who finished fast from off the pace for the Joseph O’Brien stable. This son of Wootton Bassett was bred by Joseph’s mother Anne-Marie. Wootton Bassett has been the runaway star of the Coolmore firmament of late and his fee for this year was raised to an almost unthinkable €300k.

But even at that lofty price, in this Derby line-up he wasn’t the most expensive of the 14 sires (New Bay, Ghaiyyath, Sea The Stars and Frankel were doubly represented). Juddmonte’s Frankel’s fee is £350k. Dubawi, with one runner yesterday, has the same fee for his services at Darley Stud.

Every November the stud fees for Coolmore’s stallions are made public. I was shocked in 2023 that Australia, the 2014 Derby and Irish Derby winner and a son of another outstanding Epsom hero in the peerless Galileo, had his fee for 2024 reduced to €17,500. If potential clients needed any further encouragement, his dam is the Oaks winner Ouija Board.

I mentioned it to one of Coolmore’s stallion sales team at the time, who said it reflected his lack of popularity, probably because his progeny often needed time. He added that the only people that seemed to have confidence in him still were Aidan and Anne-Marie who sent a good number of mares to him.

Checking on my facts, I was further stunned that the 2025 fee was down to ten grand (Euro, about £8,400). Aidan and Anne-Marie sure know their stuff. It’s not too late for Australia to start going back towards the €50k at which he began his stallion career. Note, for example, that he is still at Coolmore while others have been sent elsewhere due to the hard-nosed realism that characterises the stud’s management. Of the 20 published stallion figures for flat race rather than jumps sires, only one was listed at a lower figure.

Watching from home due to entirely foreseen but inescapable circumstances, I was momentarily fooled into thinking that Lester Piggott had come back to ride in the Derby in the second running after his death. As the horses walked around, I noticed just how similar Rossa Ryan carries himself on a horse. When you get the chance, have a look. No doubt he’ll win the race one day, but the Dante Stakes winner Pride Of Arras never looked in with a chance.

One fact that certainly didn’t fool me was the dispiriting sight of the sparsely populated Hill. Every first Saturday in May, in Louisville, Kentucky, upwards of 100,000 squeeze in, a tradition in US racing that goes back to the days of the famed War Admiral/Seabiscuit match race at Pimlico in November 1938, where upstart Seabiscuit met his regally bred Kentucky Derby-winning rival and humbled him.

When I used to go to Epsom with my dad in the 1960s, there were more people there during the three-day (now one) Spring meeting in April than deigned to turn up on Saturday.

All the years I used to go there when with the Daily Telegraph, I arrived for breakfast in the old lads’ canteen, waiting for a glimpse of a few of the contenders having a leg shake in the morning, and the crowd was already building up. Many scores of buses lined the straight and the Hill was packed. On Saturday there was a sprinkling of people and even Ollie Bell and former England hockey goalie Sam Quek couldn’t disguise the fact that there was enough room for kids to play impromptu football matches.

Apparently, the Jockey Club, who run Epsom, is considering how to deal with the problem. The remedy is simple. Charge a tenner for cars and allow free admission. Then people will begin to flock back, find it an enjoyable experience and one that will develop as the years go on. I’ve never been so embarrassed. Derby Day once was a great British tradition. For most of our much-changed society, it’s an irrelevance. Thank goodness ITV think it’s worth making the effort.

Many say switching from Wednesday was a big mistake but, since Covid, it seems so few people these days have physically to GO to work, that simplification is a red herring.

It’s not as if there’s loads of competition from other sports at this time of year. On Saturday, England played a World Cup qualifying match against Andorra. Who? Our brave boys, rated number four in the world, hammered the opposition (rated 173 – I didn’t know there were that many countries) by a single goal to nil. Some of them are on £300k a week. Worth every penny I’d say.

- TS

O’Brien looking to Curragh for Derby hero Lambourn

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Aidan O’Brien considers the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby the most likely next port of call for Lambourn following his Epsom heroics on Saturday.

A son of dual Derby winner Australia, the three-year-old made virtually every yard of the running in the premier Classic under Wayne Lordan, providing O’Brien with his 11th Betfred Derby success.

Speaking on Racing TV’s Luck on Sunday programme, the Ballydoyle handler reported his three Derby runners to have returned home none the worse, with Lambourn’s stablemates Delacroix and The Lion In Winter set to drop back in trip after finishing ninth and 14th respectively.

“The horses have been out for a walk and a pick of grass (this morning) and everybody seems very happy with them,” said O’Brien.

“We were expecting Wayne was probably going to go forward to make the running on Lambourn – unless there was someone going very fast he was going to end up in front and that’s what happened. Wayne gave him a great ride, he had to be aggressive from the gates and he is a horse that stays very well.”

O’Brien felt there were excuses for Delacroix, the chosen mount of Ryan Moore, and the Colin Keane-ridden The Lion In Winter.

He added: “It got a little bit rough up the hill, I think Ryan got chopped up at the top of the hill and Colin ended up a little bit more forward than he thought he was going to be and out a little bit.

“To have one horse in any race and it go right is very difficult, so if you have three in a race it’s usually not going to go right for them all.

“We learnt that Wayne’s horse stays very well and is a very straightforward, uncomplicated horse, we learnt Colin’s horse could be a miler, so he was probably a mile out of his ground, and it’s very possible that Ryan’s horse is a mile-and-a-quarter horse, even though their races didn’t go as well as they would have wanted.

“In the Derby every year you get fairly straightened out and sort out what you are or you aren’t. The Derby and the Oaks are the races that expose the whole three-year-old generation, their flaws and their weaknesses and their strengths. You usually know where you’re going after it.”

Aidan O’Brien is interviewed by the media following Lambourn's Derby success
Aidan O’Brien is interviewed by the media following Lambourn’s Derby success (David Davies/The Jockey Club)

On future plans for the winner, he said: “The lads (owners) will make that decision and we’ll see how he is when he gets back cantering in 10 days, but it looks like he’s an Irish Derby horse and it looks like the Curragh would really suit him.”

The trainer also praised the winning rider, who was winning his first Derby.

“Wayne is an unbelievable horseman and the most genuine, uncomplicated person you’ll ever meet in your life,” O’Brien added.

“He’s grateful for everything and expects nothing – that’s Wayne totally. He’ an unbelievable person to work with and an unbelievable rider, horseman and jockey all rolled into one.”

Lambourn fulfils every expectation of Derby hero Lordan

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A lot can happen in 24 hours – just ask Wayne Lordan. On Friday afternoon Oaks victory aboard Whirl was in sight, only to be denied late by Ryan Moore and Minnie Hauk. A day later Betfred Derby glory was his when an inspired front-running ride aboard willing partner Lambourn turned the ultimate test into a formality.

However, the Lordan story does not begin and end within two days in June and when the 43-year-old was unshipped by San Antonio half a mile from home in the 2023 Irish Derby, some may have been forgiven for thinking that would be the end of his Classic dreams.

Lordan suffered fractures to his legs and elbow, as well as a nasty laceration to his arm in an incident which left him not only knocked out but spending eight months on the sidelines.

It is often said that loyalty is a two-way street and during his darkest days he knew he could count on Aidan O’Brien.

The master of Ballydoyle was ready and waiting to repay one of his most trusted lieutenants for years of service and when the moment came, Lordan delivered a sublime ride to provide O’Brien with a record-extending 11th winner of the premier Classic.

“Racing is a tough game and lots of jockeys get injured and thankfully I had the support of Aidan and everybody at Coolmore to help you get back,” said Lordan.

“I suppose when you are coming back to ride horses like this it gives you an even stronger focus and I was lucky I had such a good job to come back to.

“I never wanted to be negative so always told myself I would be fine even when it was tough. I tried to stay focused and got in the gym and just told myself I would soon be back.”

Aidan O'Brien tells press conference host Martin Kelly what it means to win another Derby
Aidan O’Brien tells press conference host Martin Kelly what it means to win another Derby (Adam Morgan/PA)

When riding for O’Brien it is far from picking up scraps once Moore has had his say from the swelling team of Ballydoyle Classic prospects.

But for a man who had finished third for O’Brien aboard Japan (2019) and subsequent Irish Derby hero Los Angeles 12 months ago, there was only one colt for him this time around, as O’Brien explained.

“I knew there were two horses Wayne wanted to ride this weekend and once Ryan knew what he was going to ride, Lambourn and Whirl were the ones Wayne wanted,” said O’Brien.

“When I had been going round the yard in the evening the lads were telling me what was going on and I knew who he wanted which made it very easy for me to put him on.

“Wayne said to me coming out of the parade ring this horse is on fire today and that was before the race. He’s given him an unbelievable ride and he’s a special fellow.”

Wayne Lordan with Lambourn after winning the Betfred Derby
Wayne Lordan with Lambourn after winning the Betfred Derby (John Walton/PA)

With Moore and big-race favourite Delacroix only ninth and Irish champion Colin Keane and The Lion In Winter even further adrift, the stage was set for Lordan to steal the show and he had the perfect co-star for what was a spellbinding display in what is arguably still the biggest race of them all.

“He was the first string for me anyway, so I was happy,” explained Lordan.

“When you’re getting into racing, this is the race you always want to ride in. I’m lucky that I work for Aidan and get to ride good horses and get opportunities.

“I’ve run well in the Derby before and lost nothing in defeat, but I’m just glad today it worked out.

“I was happy once I passed the line, but there is always horses flying home here and yesterday I was thought I was going well then Ryan passed me in the last 50 yards.

“I knew the ones coming to get me would have to stay well and there was always chance they would, but thankfully my horse is a tough, genuine horse.”

Wayne Lordan and Aidan O’Brien with the Betfred Derby trophy
Wayne Lordan and Aidan O’Brien with the Betfred Derby trophy (John Walton/PA)

After eight years of working for an operation created to thrive at Epsom in early June, Lordan’s winning ride was one perhaps honed to perfection at the Ballydoyle training centre of excellence.

Now he has his name etched forever on the long and distinguished roll of honour of the blue riband.

O’Brien explained: “Everything at Ballydoyle is about Epsom and this is how the thoroughbred breed is assessed every year.

“Everything at Ballydoyle is left-handed and every piece of work they do they practice going round our Tattenham Corner, even the sprinters.

“It’s the ultimate test really and it has to be that. It’s great for Wayne to win the Derby, he’s a massive part of our team and he rides so many of our big horses in work.

“He’s in every day and it’s a privilege to have him. He’s so straightforward and such a team player, but he can be ruthless when he has to be and he’s strong and determined.”