Tag Archive for: Aidan O’Brien

Monday Musings: Gloom?

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There’s so much gloomy navel-searching about all the things that are perceived to be wrong with racing in the UK, but it took only a couple of days in Paris to dispel them, or some of them anyway, writes Tony Stafford.

True, the statistics are invariably distorted by first place in the £2.4 million to the winner Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – something which wouldn’t have been allowed to happen in pre-supplementing days – by Ralph Beckett’s remarkable filly Bluestocking, but in overall terms the home team took a real hiding.

Four wins for the UK, via Brian Meehan, the Gosdens and Ed Walker, as well as Beckett, matched Aidan O’Brien’s personal quartet over the two days. The French, on home soil with everything - even down to the going in their favour - limped behind with three.

Aidan also collected the £100k-plus Arqana sales conditions race on the first day and front-running Los Angeles picked up just shy of half a million for his third in the Arc. Once more, though, it was fillies to the fore, Bluestocking confirming Prix Vermeille form with Aventure, edging a half-length further away than in the trial three weeks earlier.

I’ve always found the fillies’ Group 1 on Trials Day much more significant than either the Prix Niel for 3yos or the Foy for the older colts. Those two races had five runners each last month, whereas the Vermeille had a field of 12.

The Arc 1-2 had some smart performers behind them that day: Emily Upjohn, Stay Alert and last year’s champion juvenile filly Opera Singer were the next three home. The races for the boys were remarkably similar, each run at more than four seconds above standard, a full three seconds slower than Bluestocking in the Vermeille.

Ralph Beckett has been relentless closing on the top training positions over the past few seasons and his comment, “I couldn’t see any reason not to supplement her,” epitomises his pragmatic approach to training.

Of course, as with all the big stables, and he had 183 listed in this year’s Horses In Training, there is a margin for error. When the year began, Bluestocking had won only once, on juvenile debut in September 2022. Since the summer, it has been a roller-coaster of ever greater success.

I had a look at the overall prizemoney earned by each of three major European horseracing and breeding superpowers over the weekend. Although Aidan got off to a flyer winning three Group races, including Kyprios’s second Prix du Cadran over 2m4f on day one, the momentum wasn’t quite maintained.

Yesterday, the lesser fancied of his two Jean-Luc Lagardere runners, Camille Pissarro, echoed the late-running performance on the first day of 25/1 shot Grateful. The similarity? Both were ridden by Christophe Soumillon with Ryan Moore on the first string. Ryan had the consolation of three €100k plus wins on day one, the third in the valuable conditions event put on by the Arqana sales company. And his third place on Los Angeles in the Arc earned him his jockey’s share from around half a million.

The overall Irish haul not including the Arc was around £675,000. The French on home soil amassed just over £800,000 for their non-Arc runners, while UK horses collected more than £1.22 million for 22 places. When you add in the Arc money, the GB total thanks to Bluestocking is more than £3.67 million; the French total comes to approximately £2.15 million and Ireland – almost entirely via the Coolmore runners was close to £1.3 million. So the UK stables picked up better than half the available money!

Even though the French had many more runners in the additional races than either UK or Ireland, they retained barely 30% of the money available. If we’re in trouble, how about them?

Those from the big teams cannot rest. After a day today looking at stock in the Tattersalls sales barns, Book 1 of the October Yearling Sale starts tomorrow, three days when 448 yearlings – blue-bloods all, but which cannot all turn out to be talented – go under the hammer.

The sale nowadays closely echoes the example of the Goffs Orby sale in Ireland, staged last week. That also commences with a Book 1 for the top stuff and Book 2 for the rest. A later sale offers less expensive pedigrees.

It’s amazing how the decisions of a sales company can make such a difference to the prospects of a borderline Book 1/Book 2 yearling. It’s simply the difference between whether an owner is to get a decent price for his/her sales candidates. Book 1 over there had 466 lots going under the hammer over two days. Of those, 399 (80%) found new owners at an average price of €128k.

The two days of the similarly populated Book 2 proved far less attractive to buyers with only 332 of 449 changing hands, that’s 70%. If that was significant, the average price of €20k was disturbing for many stud owners, especially pin hookers who will have struggled to match foal prices never mind a year’s costs.

One well-known trainer who was happy to pick up a horse from Book 1 at a fair price, did not look at any of the stock in Book 2. “It’s okay to buy them just because they are cheap,” he said, “but you have to find someone to pay for them and to have them trained.”

I canvassed a few trainers some weeks ago as it was proposed by friends to buy a horse in training. They were all middle-range but talented trainers and they were all somewhere around £60 a day (plus VAT of course). So, we’re already up to at least £500 a week, with extras like shoeing, vet charges and transport to the races. In Newmarket and many other training centres, there is also a gallops fee levied.

On Friday, the day after the conclusion of Book 1 and three days before Book 2 where most owners will not have to worry much about the likes of Godolphin, Coolmore, Amo Racing and rest to find a yearling, there are more than 750 lots to wade through. Smaller catalogues for Books 3 and 4 next week conclude as the runners for the Cesarewitch, Dewhurst and the rest go to post next weekend.

Newmarket’s first day stages a race which illustrates just how tough and frankly absurd UK’s horse racing economics are for all bar the super-rich – or those lucky enough to get a superstar for not much money.

The opening maiden of that Friday’s card has a prize of just more than £10k, much better admittedly than some that have been run on the Rowley Mile recently. Many were bought at this time last year, so at around a minimum £2,500 per month that’s at least £30,000 to get to this stage on top of their purchase price.

The happy winning owner on Saturday will receive approximately 70% of the £10,000 first prize, less jockeys’ fees and transport to the course. Sixteen of the 30 entries went through the ring, home-breds making up the remaining 14.

The cheapest of the sales group cost £45k – bought by our friend Sam Sangster and trained by Brian Meehan. The most expensive was £400k for a newcomer from Aidan O’Brien. The average - going for a £7k pot I emphasise - was 135k.

Talking of Sam Sangster and his link with Brian Meehan, Manton's longest-serving present incumbent had a Royal Ascot double this June with Rashabar (Coventry Stakes, Group 2) and Jayarebe (Hampton Court Stakes, Group 3). They had only one run each in the meantime, Rashabar when second in the Group 1 Prix Morny to Whistlejacket, and Jayarebe, also second at Deauville, to Economics. They came to Longchamp with high hopes.

Jayarebe did the business on Saturday in the Group 2 Prix Dollar, making all, while Rashabar was caught only in the last few strides of the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere by Camille Pissarro, the aforementioned O’Brien second string ridden by Christophe Soumillon.

Rashabar will aim at the 2,000 Guineas next spring while it would be no shock if Jayarebe pitched up at the Breeders’ Cup. Meehan won the Turf race there a decade or so ago with Dangerous Midge, who raced in the same Iraj Parvizi colours. Parvizi only came back to the stable after a break of several years with his purchase of Jayarebe.

There were two other notable efforts over the weekend that caught my eye. Apollo One, so often the bridesmaid in big sprint handicaps, gained a first Group-race win at Ascot on Saturday. Peter Charalambous, his owner/trainer/breeder had been frustrated at being beaten close home in the Wokingham, Stewards’ Cup and Portland handicaps this year, but on ground Pete believed he wouldn’t handle, he did, winning almost as he liked.

Secondly, another working on the wrong surface was Hughie Morrison’s Mistral Star, third in Saturday’s Group 1 Prix Royallieu where she was in front until the last 50 yards. I’m confident she would have won on faster ground.

Finally, last week I mentioned Joe Lee and his filly May Day Ready. The pair, with the help of Frankie Dettori in the saddle, got the best of a wafer-thin three way photo (centre, see below) on Friday in the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland, a Win And You're In for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Exciting times!

- TS

Monday Musings: Of Real Racing Heroes

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Less than a year after areas of Southwell racecourse, including the main grandstand and offices, were flooded to a depth of up to three feet, it played host last Friday to a unique presentation, writes Tony Stafford. No racing there, nor even the Big Trucks event that was lined up for the following couple of days, just one group of five horses galloping for a mile around its Tapeta oval.

Yet the mesmeric draw of City Of Troy and four of his lesser stablemates, accompanied by trainer Aidan O’Brien, was sufficient to entice 1,500 people – that was the pre-event estimate but on the ground the feeling was that the figure had been exceeded – to come to see it.

Here were Ryan Moore, Wayne Lordan, Brett Doyle, Rachel Richardson and Dean Gallagher to ride the quintet in advance of City Of Troy’s Breeders’ Cup Classic challenge at Del Mar, California, in November. (Gallagher amazingly so as it was more than 30 years ago that his dad Tommy asked me if I could find him a job in England. I did and he came to Rod Simpson, yet he is still regarded as sufficiently talented and fit to be asked to take his part in a trial of this importance.)

https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1837185812837855338

A few years after Dean had been signed as first jockey for the one-time Midlands greengrocer Paul Green, by then a substantial owner, he rode the Francois Doumen-trained Hors La Loi III into second place in the third of Istabraq’s triple Champion Hurdle sequence, Istabraq trained of course by Aidan O’Brien.

There was no Champion Hurdle the following year because of foot and mouth, but when Istabraq went for the four-timer in 2002, he pulled up as Charlie Swan felt he was wrong, a view confirmed by the vet’s post-race inspection. The winner, Hors La Loi III, by now trained by James Fanshawe but ridden still by Gallagher, beat Hughie Morrison’s Marble Arch, a 25/1 shot into second place.

I can throw in another small personal part to this story. I was asked to try to buy Istabraq from the July sale in 1996 and went to the John Gosden yard at Newmarket a couple of days earlier. I was shown the horse by the late John Durkan, Gosden’s assistant at the time, who said: “He’s a lovely horse. I couldn’t recommend him more highly.”

I had a budget from a Saudi prince who wanted the staying 3yo for the King’s Cup in his home country. I stayed in until 36k but Timmy Hyde, bidding for J P McManus, held sway at 38,000 gns.

I was coming back from Keeneland Sales a few years later when I heard a voice from behind me as we walked to change planes in Cincinnati. It was Timmy Hyde. He said: “Tony, you were the under-bidder for Istabraq. I know because I was standing right behind you! It’s just that that f…ing Danny Murphy is telling everyone he was!” He wasn’t.

The obvious next question was: “How high would I have needed to go?” Timmy smiled and said: “We had 100 grand if necessary!” Hardly an underbidder in truth!

The saddest part of the story was that Aidan wasn’t meant to be training the horse, it was John Durkan who would be leaving Gosden to set up his own operation in Ireland. He even came up to the Daily Telegraph’s office in South Quay Plaza, the one between Fleet Street and Canary Wharf, with our photographer Ed Byrne and Conor O’Dwyer.

But then he contracted inoperable cancer and was unable to proceed with his plans. JP McManus gave the horse to Aidan and four consecutive Festival wins, starting with the 2m5f novice and then three Champion Hurdles, earned him a place in jumping folklore, along of course with his owner and trainer. I’ve never forgotten how honest he was about the horse even though if JP had bought him, he would be training him. Istabraq died this summer at the age of 32, much lamented by his owner and family.

JP has stayed mainly in that environment, dominating owners’ championships on either side of the Irish Sea, while O’Brien has been unchallenged on the flat in his homeland and more than a match for Gosden, Hannon and the rest for most years over here.

When interviewed after a big win, Aidan invariably remembers all the people he considers have played a part in the particular horse’s preparation. It’s not about him, everyone else almost.

On Friday, as Pat Keating awaited his boss’s delayed arrival – there was a crash on the way from the airport - replying to his question: “How long <have they been walking around the paddock>? answered “Forty-seven minutes”. Aidan said: “They are set to go then.” Thirty is the usual requirement. The jockeys mounted, setting off around to the far side of the track for the American-style stalls especially brought for the event.

The imperative, apart from City Of Troy working well and acting on the surface, was a fast pace and the short-running duo that broke best, ensured that would happen. Up the straight, the markedly elongated stretch of the Derby winner’s stride not for the first time struck connections Paul Smith, son of Derrick, his son Harry and Mike Dillon, former Ladbrokes man and a close friend.

The workout was the day job. But then we saw the true Aidan. He had a quick post-work de-brief with the jockeys, giving each the chance to comment, but obviously then having the crucial talk with Ryan on how it went.

But then the crowd saw something I doubt even those that travelled from far beyond the East Midlands would have expected. Aidan smiled throughout whenever cornered by a gallop-goer to sign the nice little racecard designed by Nick Craven, one of Weatherbys’ bosses. Each signature, because we are in 2024 and not 2004, had to require a selfie. None of which the personable O’Brien refused.

There was a lengthy television interview for Sky Sports Racing with Jason Weaver, while Brough Scott added his wisdom of many years to the proceedings. Then Aidan spent ages talking to mainly young aspiring journalists, none of whom could believe this giant of racing would give them so much time.

I guess almost an hour and a half after the workout – the pre-event blurb said he would stay for 45 minutes - he went off smiling for the car to the airport, long after Keating, his travelling head lad, had caught his eye and pointed to his watch.

Aidan O’Brien may be no Frankie Dettori but where the Italian has showmanship in the extreme, Aidan has a modesty and innate kindness that you would need to go a long way to see replicated by any public figure.

It could have been a fiasco, but Aidan’s plan to give his horse an awayday must be termed a great success, not least in PR terms. I’m certainly glad I was there to see it. And I know that the final line of people waiting patiently for his signature, selfie and smile, all got their precious reward for their trip. Well done, Southwell, well done Aidan, Ryan and the rest.

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Mentioning Marble Arch in relation to Hors La Loi III and Dean Gallagher reminded me that Hughie Morrison has been around for a good while, too. Not So Sleepy hasn’t been with us for quite as long but he did win first time out as a two-year-old at Nottingham ten years ago and in the following May, won the Dee Stakes, the pre-Derby warm-up for winners Oath and Kris Kin, the latter for Sir Michael Stoute who will retire from training at the end of the season.

Not So Sleepy has raced at least four times in each of the next nine seasons, never once having his flat handicap mark drop below 94 and now, after a wonderful repeat win in a valuable Newbury handicap on Saturday, will surely end his career rated over 100 – he was 99 on Saturday. I’ll be shocked if that has ever happened before.

Hughie trains with a rare sympathetic view of his charges – “Each one that gets injured I feel it so much”, he says. But consequently, few trainers have a comparable facility for extending their horses’ working lives. He won a Group 1 with the stayer Alcazar when that horse was ten years of age, but his achievements with the difficult to manage Not So Sleepy dwarf even that.

He finished in the first four in three Cesarewitch Handicaps and was seventh last year. He also ran in four consecutive Champion Hurdles. Despite not taking up hurdling until the age of seven, his three Grade 1 wins include a dead-heat with previous Champion Hurdle winner Epatante in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, a feat he followed with a second win in the Newcastle race.

Last December, he won a Grade 1 hurdle at Sandown in a procession, a few days short of his official twelfth birthday. Few horses have achieved half as much as Sleepy. His owner, Lady Blyth, seemed very keen as with Quickthorn recently to ascribe lots of credit to rider Tom Marquand, a sentiment reciprocated in their interviews with Matt Chapman for Sky Sports Racing.

Never a mention of the trainer and the usually forensic Chapman didn’t seem to think of bringing in his name either. Maybe Hughie was being courted and given his rightful credit for the horse’s achievements by ITV, but I have only one television set.

Also Saturday was the final day’s riding for Franny Norton, and he chose Chester, where he has been the “King” for so long, for the farewell. He did it in style, notching a treble, and it would be fitting if the course made him an ambassador for the future, especially at the May meeting.

It was a lovely weekend at any rate for some real racing heroes.

- TS

Monday Musings: The Jugglers

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The second Saturday in September illustrated how trainers and jockeys’ agents need to be expert jugglers at this time of year, writes Tony Stafford. We had the Irish Champion Stakes, worth a total €£1.15 million (€712k to the winner) and the Betfred St Leger, £830k and £421k to the winner, yet three UK champion jockeys were riding more than 3,000 miles away from either venue.

The trio - Oisin Murphy, William Buick and Frankie Dettori - all lined up in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes for 2yo fillies over a mile and worth £177k at the Woodbine racetrack in Toronto, Canada. Buick was on the 4/5 favourite for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby, the dual early-season winner Mountain Breeze, but she could only manage eighth place.

Ahead of her were Murphy, fifth on 65/1 shot Ready To Battle, for dominant local trainer Mark Casse despite being the outsider of his trio; and Dettori was one place behind on the Christophe Clement filly Annascaul, the race second favourite.

He was the only one of our itinerant trio to have a ride in the next Graded race, the Ontario Matron (G3) on the Tapeta track. He finished fourth for Casse who again had three runners without securing the win.

Only five turned up for the E P Taylor Stakes for fillies and mares, run on the turf track. In the past the E P Taylor was a frequent target for UK and especially French runners. It honours the Canadian breeder Eddie Taylor. He stood Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Northern Dancer, the stallion who first tickled the fancy of Vincent O’Brien and led, with Robert Sangster and John Magnier’s help, to the legacy of Sadler’s Wells and, through him, to his even more influential son Galileo.

This year, the E P Taylor was a tame affair considering there was £266k for the winner. Oisin got a ride here but could do no better than fourth of five on Blush for French-based trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias. All three of the visiting riders had been previous winners of the race.

Charlie Appleby and Andrew Balding staged a rematch from a Listed race on King George Day at Ascot in July, with Al Qudra, the winner of that race for Charlie and Will, going into the bet365 <they get in everywhere!> Summer Plate over a mile on the turf as favourite, having beaten New Century by just over two lengths then.

Here Oisin turned the form around on identical terms, winning by one and a quarter lengths from Al Qudra in another Grade 1 again worth £177k, as with the juvenile fillies earlier. The share of the spoils made Oisin’s awayday worthwhile and even in defeat Buick got his mitts on a portion of the 60 grand for second.

The principal reason for the Appleby/Godolphin attack was presumably the featured Rogers Woodbine Mile, with a hefty £355,000 to the winner. The Buick mount, Naval Power, was the 11/20 favourite but finished only fourth to a couple of Mark Casse runners, siphoning up between them a good deal more than half a million Canadian bucks. Naval Power had been a very close second on his previous start when Dettori had the mount in a valuable supporting race on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs in early May.

If you feel sorry for Frankie, the pensioner (in jockey terms) started out the previous weekend looking forward to a hatful of Aidan O’Brien mounts at Kentucky Downs, but only Greenfinch, who finished fourth, ran, the others being withdrawn. But then, a week yesterday at the same track, May Day Ready won a £483k first prize and that was supplemented by a double at the same track on Wednesday. Dettori won the £238k Gold Cup with Limited Liability and then the Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational with Kathymarissa and another £720k.

His win prizes amounted to £1,323,000 over the week. No wonder he loves being in the US!

What did they miss while waiting for Saturday in Canada? At Doncaster there was an eighth St Leger win for Aidan O’Brien as the inexperienced and in some ways still green Jan Bruegel edged out Illinois in a thrilling tussle up the Doncaster straight. Both colts are by Galileo and at the final opportunity, his sons dominated yet another English Classic.

Impossible to separate in the market, it looked like a potential dead-heat in the race until Sean Levey, who started out life as an O’Brien apprentice before relocating to the UK, forced his mount’s head in front close to the line.

Behind in third and fourth, also locked together, were Deira Mile and Sunway who crossed the line only a nose apart. I thought it a mealy-mouthed decision by the stewards to turn the form around, denying Deira Mile’s ever-adventurous Ahmed Al Sheikh of Green Team Racing another placed run in the English Classics of which he is so enamoured.

Bay City Roller was a good winner of the Champagne Stakes that opened the card, but it might have been a different story had not Chancellor prematurely burst out of the gate. The Gosden colt, a smart scorer at the track last time, was third at Ascot in the race where Al Qudra beat New Century.

The raft of unlikely horse/trainer/jockey partnerships on this unusual day continued in the Portland Handicap, one of my favourite races with its intermediate sprint distance of around five and a half furlongs.

Here, the unluckiest horse in training, Peter Charalambous’s Apollo One, got the services of no less a partner than Christophe Soumillon. The Belgian, a multiple champion jockey in France, had just got his mount’s brave head in front of a gaggle of horses on the far side when the favourite American Affair flew down under the stands rail under Paul Mulrennan to beat him by a nose.

It was a notable win for Jim Goldie and, given the way he finished on Saturday, the Ayr Gold Cup in five days’ time must have its appeal. Peter Charalambous is adamant he would never ask Apollo One to run in the likely soft ground at Ayr, but it would be nice to think he would win a big sprint handicap before too long.

Over the past two seasons he has finished second in four big sprints, the Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup last year and the Stewards’ Cup and Portland in 2024. His total losing distance is barely two and a half lengths in those races.

Irish Champions Weekend featured a fine return to form by the slightly unpredictable but undeniably ultra-talented Auguste Rodin. He ran a great race in the Irish Champion Stakes but just failed to cope with the tenacious favourite Economics.

It had been a brave decision by William Haggas to resist running his colt in the Derby after his sensational <I use the word advisedly> Dante Stakes romp at York and, nicely rested, Haggas had given him an ideal warm-up run at Deauville last month for his main target here.

Economics came from some way back, as did Auguste Rodin. Tom Marquand sent his mount into the lead halfway up the short Leopardstown straight, when it appeared that Ryan Moore on the dual Derby winner was going marginally the easier, even getting his head in front in the last hundred yards. Economics, to his credit, pulled out extra and, despite battling all the way to the line, Auguste Rodin had to be content with an honourable second place.

The path for both horses is set in stone. Economics will now go to the Qipco Champion Stakes for what will be only his sixth career start. Auguste Rodin has the Breeders’ Cup Turf, which he won last year, as his autumn objective.

Just behind in third and fourth were the Japanese horse Shin Emperor, who should make a bold attempt at being the first from Japan to win the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, and fast-finishing Los Angeles, who probably would have fully extended his two stablemates at Doncaster.

His range of entries, from the Champion Stakes (ten furlongs) at Ascot to the British Champion Long Distance Cup (two miles) the same day and, a fortnight earlier, the Arc over one mile and a half reflect his untapped potential and versatility. I’d go the stayers’ route if he were mine – wishful thinking in the extreme!

Yesterday, Messrs Buick and Murphy made it back to the Curragh for the second day of the Irish Champions Weekend. They might not have won as they rode respectively Vauban and Giavellotto into second and third in the Irish St Leger, but at least they got a close-up view of the remarkable Kyprios.

Aidan O'Brien's six-year-old entire was taking his earnings past £2 million with an authoritative performance under Ryan Moore. It was Kyprios' 13th win in 17 career starts. After last year's injury problems and a curtailed season of only two second places, he has now repeated the same first five victories of his unbeaten four-year-old campaign and in the same  races.

That year (2022) he ended the season with victory in the Prix Du Cadran over two and a half miles - by twenty lengths! If he goes there and wins in three weeks it would be a double unbeaten six-timer, four of them at Group 1 level, surely a record, and one that will be exceptionally difficult to match in the future. He deserves to be regarded as at least the equal of Yeats as a stayer. Many will think him superior.

- TS

Monday Musings: Of God and the Alchemist!

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Who is Celia? What is she? Or rather where is she? The one-time lady amateur rider and walk-on or pub-customer extra in Eastenders (and other TV series) played a massive part in my life, writes Tony Stafford. I’m sure she had/has no idea and even the Internet didn’t help me track her down. But Saturday relegated her to the second half of this two-in-one article. You’ll see why shortly.

Having made almost fanatically-extravagant judgment based on his two-year-old performances – the best two-year-old I’ve ever seen, I suggested – the abject failure of City Of Troy in the 2000 Guineas five weeks ago could surely only bring an early hasty rush off to stud. That would have been the normal obvious course of action.

But then his trainer is Aidan O’Brien. Never did he – outwardly, at least – question his horse, just himself for not putting in the required amount of tough work into a potential Classic winner in the weeks leading up to Newmarket.

So, they gathered at Epsom, for some reason suggesting the draw in stall one was a big disadvantage. Why? Didn’t Oath win from there in 1999, causing your correspondent and the Henry Cecil/ Thoroughbred Corporation horse’s groom to dance around in delight. We’d watched his win on the tiny TV screen on the jockeys’ room glass wall just behind the unsaddling circle that has been home to the greats: Nijinsky, Shergar and Galileo himself in 2001, the first of ten winners for Aidan and the Coolmore partners.

Only two of those came before Camelot in 2012, a ten-year gap for O’Brien from High Chaparral in the year after Galileo, but eight of the next 13 giving testimony, if any was needed, of the trainer’s uniqueness.

Two of the Coolmore ownership group also had a bonus win with Pour Moi in 2011, trained by Andre Fabre, putting Sue Magnier (the great Vincent’s daughter) and Michael Tabor ahead of the trainer as the winning-most pair in the race’s 240-year history.

By the time Aidan has finished, he will have set records never to be broken - of that I am sure - as by the time it could be possible, racing will be staged on AI tracks with AI horses - with no trainer or jockey in sight.

First the race. Ryan Moore on the only lightly-backed favourite (3/1 about a horse that was odds-on for the Guineas, “unbelievable”) as Jonno Mills of the Rabbah (Godolphin-lite) operation reflected afterwards, though not before – was allowed to start slowly.

In all his races – the three as a juvenile and the Guineas, he raced towards or at the front. Now, tackling another half-mile, he had to learn on the job, coming from behind as his stablemates Euphoric and the previously unbeaten Los Angeles set a strong pace.

He came down the hill nicely, switched inside early in the straight and had the speed to stride through gaps where an ordinary staying horse might have been less malleable.

Passing Los Angeles between the two and one-furlong poles, he was quickly clear and just needed to be kept going by Ryan (Derby number four for him) to remain almost three lengths ahead of the Bill Gredley/James Fanshawe Lingfield Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly.

Third was Los Angeles, six lengths in the end behind his stable-mate and then the two Ahmad Al Sheikh horses, one each for Andrew Balding and Owen Burrows. Sixth, having come from miles back but then looking like he didn't quite get home, was Roger Teal’s Dancing Gemini who must be a banker for a big prize in a Group 1 over ten furlongs.

Bill Gredley, at 91, had to have been hopeful as his colt came there cantering, but Ryan on his inside was always finding that little more speed. Still, it was great that Rab Havlin, parachuted in to replace his Lingfield rider Callum Shepherd, enjoyed such a wonderful ride in a Derby.

Havlin, so often the back-up to Frankie Dettori – did we miss him as he won a couple of races across the Atlantic? I think not - gave his mount an impeccable ride through. Rider was as flawless as his always flamboyant owner had looked resplendent in the paddock in the only bright red trousers on view. You’d probably have had to scour the well-patronised funfair areas on the inside of the track to find a pair to match them!

As I’ve mentioned before, Bill Gredley started life in Poplar, East London, not far from Michael Tabor’s birthplace in Forest Gate – Stratford coming in between. Joining Michael as ever, were his racecourse pals, all of whom he has known since the 1980’s at least, including Maurice Manasseh, even with him for the Florida Derby that Thunder Gulch achieved under 'Money' Mike Smith for D. Wayne Lukas in 1995, before adding the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers later in the year.

Just two years later, having been (as ever, shrewdly as it turns out) identified by John Magnier as a potential partner as the old Robert Sangster/ Vincent O’Brien era at Ballydoyle/Coolmore was starting to unravel, the two-man ownership team won successive 2000 Guineas with Entrepreneur and King Of Kings. I’ll never forget the former as my eldest grandson was born at 3 a.m. the next morning less than an hour’s drive away.

The succession at Coolmore seems firmly in place. MV Magnier does most of the recruiting and brother JP also has plenty to say behind the scenes. John and Sue’s son-in-law David Wachman, a highly successful trainer before retiring as a younger man, is also in the back-up team. David’s young family are all outstanding in the field of equestrianism, so much so that Grandpa John prefers watching their exploits than some of even the biggest race days his horses contest.

Derrick Smith, delighted to be in attendance on Saturday, as he had been in Louisville when Sierra Leone gave the partners a close second on the same evening as the Guineas debacle, has son Paul and enthusiastic grandsons – all there on Saturday - to pass on the baton when the time comes, as it inevitably will.

Meanwhile, also on Saturday, I detected a new element to the possible Tabor succession.

Over the many years I’ve known him, I hasten to say, no more than to chat for the few minutes our paths would have crossed in various winner’s enclosures, Ashley Tabor-King has been almost distracted, enjoying his father’s success but more involved in developing his interest in the music industry. His mother Doreen is a noted supporter of emerging classical musicians, and while Ashley has been largely into pop music, the influence is clear.

Having successfully turned the Global Group, of which he is boss, into the biggest in commercial radio in the UK he has also overseen its many charitable contributions especially to younger disadvantaged people. Now, though, he seems to be taking rather more interest in the sport.

On Saturday, before the Dash, he was looking over the balcony through binoculars aiming to get the focus right, asking where was the start? I pointed back up the track and said: “You’re looking the true professional, can you give me a commentary?”

Then, around an hour later, when the owners were called to the podium to accept the most-desired trophy in UK - some may say, world  - racing, for all its modest value compared with many races elsewhere, Ashley and husband George took their places to the left of the group.

It’s been a joke between us that he might have considered himself a Jonah on the rare times he went to the big events. “You’re not a jinx, you’re a lucky mascot,” to which he replied, “I always thought I was a lucky omen. It was just MV and JP who joked otherwise!”

As he is such a great friend with all the people in the next generation, I’m predicting that this truly engaging man will find that learning about the game his father knows inside out might well appeal as a new challenge for him.

Now the form from last year with Haatem - City Of Troy twice beat him easily - is looking better after the places by Haatem in the 2000 and Irish 2000 Guineas. Rosellion, second at Newmarket, first in Ireland, and Notable Speech, unraced since his win in Newmarket for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, will be contesting the big mile races. Neither Appleby nor Hannon stopped smiling as they called in on the Coolmore box after the big race – as with almost everyone around the winer’s circle as he came back in.

City of Troy in the Winners' Enclosure at Epsom after winning the 2024 Derby, attended by Ryan Moore and Tony Stafford (right)

City of Troy in the Winners' Enclosure at Epsom after winning the 2024 Derby, attended by Ryan Moore and Tony Stafford (right)

I watched the race just by the winning line – my friend and former Daily Telegraph colleague George Hill reminded me that was where we saw Reference Point’s big win for Henry Cecil – and it gave me plenty of time to get first into that famed circle.

Eventually, everyone crowded in, but somehow, I managed to get close to City Of Troy. Remembering when I went to Coolmore and met Galileo with Harry Taylor and Alan Newman a few years back, I’d stood with my hand on his near-side flank. Here I was able to do a similar thing with City of Troy. While Ryan was cuddling his neck, I pressed my hand gently on the other side. After the horse’s exertions, you might have expected an agitated animal - he was anything but. Whenever I’ve touched one of the horses I’d been involved with as a racing manager or owner in the past straight after a race I’d always come away with a wet hand.

Not on Saturday – it was bone dry, his body warm, but he stayed motionless as the photographers assailed him from the front. Racing finally is back page and television news for the right reasons. As for me, I will never forget that full minute when I touched greatness!

*

Back in the mid-80’s I somehow inveigled a horse for a cup of tea – and an equine replacement of him. He had been designed to be a riding horse, but thankfully, the intervention freed him from that dull fate, allowing him to resume his proper job as a racehorse.

Sent to Rod Simpson, he won a couple of races in the same week, at Folkestone and then Lingfield on a Saturday evening, before finishing fourth in the Lady Riders’ race at Ascot on King George Day. He hadn’t a prayer against some smart, developing three-year-olds from the likes of Barry Hills and Michael Stoute. Fourth then and a spot on the edge of the old Ascot winner’s enclosure was an achievement in the days the race wasn’t a handicap.

I’d been willing to sell before the winning spell started, and the fact that he might still be for sale persuaded Celia Radband to tell a couple of her lady rider friends – in those days quite a small community - about him

I was in the DT office one day when a call came in. "Mr Stafford?", asked Wilf Storey, "I understand you might want to sell Fiefdom", by now a five-year-old, who had been talented enough to finish fifth in the Cambridgeshire for Bruce Hobbs two years before.

He was just about the most polite person I’d ever heard, certainly in the hubbub of a sports room of a national newspaper in those days. He told me his daughters Fiona and Stella had been told by Ms Radband that he would make a lovely jumper. I hadn’t thought of that – his form when he initially started jumping was awful, but anyway.

I had to say, sorry no, adding if I changed my mind he would be my first call. Fiefdom ran well again at Ascot that autumn, after which I decided to call Wilf, offering him at 5k rather than the original 6k.

In the meantime, he’d taken another two of Rodney’s horses after one morning when they played up. I should have them shot, said a furious Rodney. I thought maybe Wilf, primarily a sheep farmer, would take them and the arrangement was duly done.

Within a couple of days, one of the two had indeed been moved on, having almost killed Chris Grant first day on the gallops; but the other one, Santopadre, was fine. These were two of a ten-horse deal I’d done with Malcolm Parrish, whom I first met at the Cashel Palace Hotel, close to Ballydoyle where he was with David O’Brien, who I’d arranged to visit.

David had recently won the Derby with Secreto, beating his father’s El Gran Senor in a massive upset which briefly threatened the stud deal that Sangster/O’Brien had already negotiated. Secreto missed the Irish Derby, El Gran Senor duly won, and the world moved on as imagined.

Also in that Parrish bunch was Brunico, later 2nd in that season’s Triumph Hurdle having been sent to Rod. Two runs later he won the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester for Terry Ramsden, beating top-class Shahrastani. Santopadre was offered around. I asked Wilf if he had anyone with two grand to buy him. Answer: “no!”

Oliver Grey rode him first time on his last day’s riding in the UK at Musselburgh before going to India. We thought him moderate, but Oliver gave him a tap around the home bend. “He flew,” he said, “so I put the stick down.”

So, the plan had to be three runs, achieved so his rating was a lowly 26 or so – they went down a lot further in those days!

Then, having told me, “Never mind the flat, I’ve never had a novice jump so well", I said there’s a weak race at Hexham coming up. He replied, “I’ve done nothing with him – you told me not to.” Despite his misgivings he won.

He won again in a fair claimer at Newcastle soon afterwards. Now, going from that company into an open juvenile novice with a 10lb penalty might have seemed a step too far, but he gave 15lb and a 15-length beating to Buck Up, a Peter Easterby filly that eventually finished runner-up in the Schweppes Gold Trophy.

Santopadre was fifth in the Triumph for Wilf, three places behind Brunico. His reward? To have him taken away to Simpson. Not by me, but Ramsden had paid many times the initial fee for him and did as he wished.

So to Fiefdom, with Santopadre already in the team. He arrived off the wagon and Wilf’s fears were unfounded. "He’s a great big beauty." He bolted up – well backed – first time at Sedgefield, running off a much lower jumps mark than his 71 on turf. In all he won three Ekbalco Hurdles at Newcastle for Wilf and ended his working days as a rider.

They were the start. In between, with younger daughter Stella doing most of the riding on the Muggleswick gallops, the winners kept flowing, the most important Great Easeby, a £2k purchase unraced from Robert Sangster. He won races all over the place, including the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham.

Another to come from Manton more recently was Card High. I’d watched him being completely outpaced as a juvenile in all his gallops for Brian Meehan and the decision was made between Ben and Guy Sangster, Robert’s sons, to get rid. I made sure I was standing nearby and when I heard the magic words, I was there. “I know someone!” – he won six and only retired last year.
Stella had to withdraw a year or so ago from the action after suffering many bad falls, but fortunately her sister Fiona’s daughter, Siobhan Doolan, was able to step in. I was watching the HIT sale last year and noticed that an Ollie Sangster two-year-old was unsold at 1,000 gns.

I checked with Ollie whether he had left the sale – he hadn’t, “but be quick!”

I was nowhere near, but old sales pal Richard Frisby came to the rescue and did the deal. The horse was called Edgewater Drive, a son of of Dandy Man. At first, the gelding, who had injured a foot before the sale, "could hardly walk up the gallop, never mind run", says Siobhan. Gradually, after several weeks’ careful handling, he was able to break out of a trot.

All that part was unknown to me as I tried to get ten shares sold at £100 each. With good friend Keven Howard trawling the pubs of mid-Essex, between us we must have asked 30 people and managed to sell not one share.

Siobhan got going. She had managed to syndicate the mare Shifter to the same people that had owned Card High – oil rig workers offshore in Scotland - and that mare won twice last year. Many of them eventually joined up as Edgewater Drive gradually came right.

Eighth in a decent mile race at Wetherby on his first run where not quite getting home, everyone was enthused when Shifter won another twice recently as Edgewater Drive had worked nicely behind her up the late Denys Smith’s gallop.

Expectations were bright, then, on Friday at Carlisle and, under a lovely ride from the underrated Paula Muir, Edgewater Drive sailed through a gap and won by almost two lengths. No City Of Troy, but at £100 a pop, pretty good value. If Aidan O’Brien can turn water into wine, Wilf Storey might not be able to do that, but the old alchemist almost turns base metal into gold! And none of it would have happened without Celia Radband.

Come on in Celia and watch Edgewater Drive win again next time out at Redcar of June 21, unless of course you are at Royal Ascot!

- TS

Monday Musings: Emollient

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At any time over the past 20-odd years you would never have believed it possible, writes Tony Stafford. But when Tower Of London came with a breathtaking run from the back under Ryan Moore to win the Dubai Gold Cup, there was a beaming Michael Tabor on hand to welcome the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt into the winner’s enclosure.

Back home in the UK, I needed a second take as Nick Luck came across to interview him. “Congratulations”, said Luck. “Thank you, it’s my first time here”, replied Tabor.

“Your first time at Meydan?”, continued the interviewer. “Not just at Meydan, my first time ever in Dubai. It’s fantastic, not just the racecourse, the whole of Dubai!”

Whether Michael would have been quite as amiable following a third career bomb from Auguste Rodin in the £2.7milion to the winner Sheema Classic just over three hours later is immaterial. He said it and if the £400-odd grand victory for Tower Of London was chicken-feed in relation to the riches on offer later on, it still made the journey a success for Tabor and a number of elated fellow travellers celebrating the victory in the unsaddling enclosure afterwards.

For those two decades at the start of the millennium, Coolmore, especially Michael Tabor, had been sworn racecourse adversaries of the men from Dubai, largely in the person of Sheikh Mohammed Al Rashid bin Maktoum, Ruler of that Emirate.

Their mild-mannered if ultra-competitive trainer Aidan O’Brien would never have viewed the rivalry with anything like the fierceness of his owner, but I think we should applaud one man for the emollient qualities that made Saturday’s moment possible.

Step forward Charlie Appleby, the always-amiable Devonian who took over the training of half of Godolphin’s UK team. This occurred as a result of the misdeeds of Mahmood al Zarooni and his proven use of illicit means to propel his already formidable horses even further forward. Saeed bin Suroor was, and remains, supervising the other gradually shrinking portion.

One of the horses found to have been doped – but not at the time of his biggest success – was the 2012 St Leger winner Encke. It was in the spring of the following year that the eight-year punishment was handed down to the Dubai national. Ban served, he started to train again domestically with a much smaller team.

Appleby was al Zarooni’s assistant at the time of Encke’s St Leger and the biggest effect of that victory was that it denied Camelot, winner of that year’s 2000 Guineas and Derby, of what would have been the first Triple Crown in the UK since Vincent O’Brien and Nijinsky in 1970.

Al Zarooni’s ban came following a BHA inspection the following year after the St Leger found 11 horses testing positive to the presence of anabolic steroids in their systems. The steroids, he said, were brought back in his suitcase from the UAE, adding he “didn’t know they were prohibited”.

By the time of the ban, al Zarooni had won three races, two at the 2013 Craven meeting and another in the same week at Wolverhampton. Appleby took over soon after and sent out 80 winners that season. After almost two years off the track after his Classic success, Encke, still an entire, had three placed runs under the Appleby banner before disappearing without a trace.

The Appleby-Coolmore thawing of relations began with the mutual respect that Charlie and Aidan O’Brien invariably showed each other for their respective successes in major races. Also, Appleby’s and Ryan Moore’s children know each other very well. Charlie had no qualms about regularly congratulating Aidan and the owners, most often Michael Tabor, for their successes and Aidan responded in kind. Images of their mutual celebrations at Santa Anita and the like are still fresh in the memory.

Last year, there was the usual triumphal season for Coolmore and Aidan with yet another Derby, and other achievements, for Auguste Rodin. Contrastingly, it was the first time for a while that Appleby’s Classic generation had been below par. Last year’s two-year-olds will need to step up in the major races in 2024.

It didn’t take long though for Appleby to enjoy himself on his own terms. Despite struggling with periodic absences through his career, the Dubawi gelding Rebel’s Romance had proved himself a high-class performer, making the Breeders’ Cup Turf race in October 2022, his ninth win in only 12 starts.

After three disappointing performances last year he got back on track in a Listed race at Kempton in December and even though he followed up with a £1 million-plus pot in Doha last month he was allowed to start at 25/1. So now it’s 12 wins in 18, and £6.173m in prizemoney. Not bad!

While Auguste Rodin languished at the rear, reminiscent of his Guineas and King George meltdowns from last year, William Buick always had Rebel’s Romance in touch behind the front-running duo of Point Lonsdale, Auguste’s pacemaker, and the Japanese Stars On Earth. That Point Lonsdale, a 100/1 shot, could finish 6th, picking up almost £100k, shows just how far below expectations the favourite ran.

Hopefully, as last year, that first comeback run will be forgotten when he gets fully into stride. Nowadays it’s more a case of what a potential stallion has won rather the times he has lost that govern his marketability and, as a son of Deep Impact, there’ll always be room for him in Japan. They can afford him too!

Back in the Sheema Classic, Buick merely had to go past the front pair and wait for the expected late runners, but none came. Then a half-hour later, Charlie was just as delighted when the former Bob Baffert-trained Laurel River, now handled in Dubai by Bhupat Seemar made a mockery of the £10 million Dubai World Cup, never looking like relinquishing the long lead jockey Tadhg O’Shea initiated early in the ten-furlong dirt race.

The first prize of £5m should equate to about half a million quid for the rider who a decade or so ago regularly came to ride work for Brian Meehan at Manton, ostensibly in his job as he recalls it as number two (or more accurately surely three behind the late Hamdan Al Maktoum’s first jockey Paul Hanagan and recently retired Dane O’Neill). I always found Tadhg a friendly young man. It was a surprise at the time when he decided to go – like so many other fringe jockeys – to Dubai. He’s Beyond the Fringe now.

Laurel River was allowed to start at 17/2 amid a deluge of money for the Kazakhstan entry – sounds more like one of the heats of the Eurovision Song Contest – Kabirkhan, winner of 11 of his previous 12 starts.

A son of California Chrome, the 2014 Kentucky Derby and 2016 Dubai World Cup victor, Kabirkhan was a $12k buy from bargain basement Book 5 at Keeneland yearling sales in 2021. Sent to Kazakhstan where he went unbeaten at two, he was similarly never finding anything remotely to test him in his three-year-old season in Russia.

Now in the care of legendary locally based American handler Doug Watson and ridden by another of the long-term second-string jockeys Pat Dobbs, he was perfectly poised on the rail as Laurel River took off.

While Laurel River just went further and further away, the favourite faded and it was left to last year’s winner, the Japanese Ushba Tesoro, who came from miles behind to take second. Not quite the riches from 2023, but still worth nigh on £2 million for connections of the seven-year-old entire.

Frankie Dettori was back in ninth on Bob Baffert’s Newgate but, earlier, restored to the Godolphin blue, because amazingly he, unlike Buick, can ride at 8st5lb – given a few weeks’ notice, of course – he rode Appleby’s filly Star Of Mystery into second place behind six-year-old California Spangle, trained in Hong Kong by Tony Cruz, in the Al Quoz Sprint.

It wasn’t all gloom for Baffert. His colt Muth, by Good Magic (2nd Kentucky Derby) won the Arkansas Derby comfortably at Oaklawn Park. That race was worth £620k and Baffert used it successfully as the prep back in 2015 when his American Pharoah became the first US Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

Justify in 2018 is the most recent of 13 horses to achieve that feat. He, like American Pharoah, is based at Ashford stud in Kentucky, Coolmore’s US base. Justify’s sons and daughters are already showing extraordinary ability, led of course by City Of Troy.

The winter 2000 Guineas favourite had his first look at a racecourse in 2024 at Leopardstown (re-scheduled from waterlogged Naas) a week ago. From the time he did what he did to his useful opponents in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last July, I’ve been convinced he’s the best two-year-old I’ve seen.

The Dewhurst win was just as emphatic, his all-the-way near four-length margin earning a 125 rating. Roll on May!

Talking of the Derby, there was a hark back to another time when an old-style “chalk jockey” won the race. Back in the height of Covid, the 2020 running was won by Serpentine, 25/1, ridden by the unknown, possibly even to his parents, Emmet McNamara, to the quietest ever reception for a Derby winner. I’m sure Bernard Kantor would have been quite bemused, consulting his race card as he supervised formalities after the race.

Serpentine, now a seven-year-old, won a 10-furlong Group 3 race at Rosehill, Australia, over the weekend. By Galileo, he was having his 18th race and first success since his Derby triumph, the last twelve following a gelding operation in March two years ago. He is now trained by close Coolmore friend Gai Waterhouse and joint licence-holder Adrian Bott.

  • TS

Breeders’ Cup 2023: The Chalky & Scratchy Show

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The 40th renewal of the Breeders' Cup in gorgeous Santa Anita was an intense cauldron of high-class action. It always is. But there were differences between the 2023 version and those that went before, as outlined in my five takeaways below...

Scratch That

There was a swathe of non-runners, or scratches as they're known across the pond, over the two days. In fact, even before the Euro runners were due to board their flights, a number were withdrawn. Once on the ground at Santa Anita, over the course of the week further scratches were announced including Aidan O'Brien's Pearls And Rubies and, more materially, River Tiber and Bolshoi Ballet; Classic intended runners Mage, Geaux Rocket Ride and Arcangelo; Dirt Mile second favourite Practical Move; as well as the Jessica Harrington-trained Givemethebeatboys and Archie Watson-trained Bradsell.

The withdrawal, on veterinary advice, of most of these - and due to injuries sustained training by Mage, Geaux Rocket Ride and Practical Move - were a feature of a very troubled build up to the race days. Disturbingly, both Practical Move (cardiac arrest) and Geaux Rocket Ride (displaced condylar fracture, failed to recover from surgery, euthanised) died.

 

This was fuel to the fire of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), an entity with a strong presence in liberal California and who were making their point outside the racetrack throughout the weekend. A large banner proclaiming "Horses Are Killed Here" greeted racegoers and passing motorists alike and, while "Horses Die Here" might have been more factually accurate, there is no hiding place from this reality when horses are trained on the track.

Here in UK, where most horses are trained at yards not co-located at a racecourse, injuries and fatalities also happen - away from the glare of the general public. Which is to say that we should not assume this is a problem Stateside to which we are immune.

Of course, the racing surface and the medication regime are areas of longstanding concern which are now being addressed, in part at least, as a consequence of HISA, a new entity seeking to unify protocols across America similar to the way BHA oversee here. Even on this, though, HISA has been legally challenged by horsepeople aghast at the fact they might need to change some of their methodologies. Not a strong look, alas.

Back on the track, the vets were omnipresent. Barn inspections, trot ups and trackwork scrutiny were the last acts of a programme of oversight begun in July.

In total there were 16 scratches from Friday's five-race main card, and many more on Saturday. Some were as a consequence of the natural attrition caused by a long season and the general scope for minor mishap in prepping horses for championship races; but many - too many for plenty of observers - were withdrawn at the behest of the on site vets despite protestations from connections. The upshot is certain to be a reluctance to travel next year for some, with costs estimated in the region of $70,000 all told. That's a bitter, and very expensive, pill to swallow for luckless owners and trainers, even those whose pockets are deeper than us mere mortals.

The Chalkfest

In the US, favourites win at a rate close to 40%, a figure nodding to the absence of a meaningful handicap program - instead preferring a large number of (sometimes very high value) claiming-based race conditions - and the erosion in average field size: small fields equal more winning favourites. But, with field sizes holding up fairly well even after the glut of scratches, this Breeders' Cup was the chalkiest* in the forty-year history of the event. [*the 'chalk' is the favourite, a reference to the good old days of boardmen on track - days long gone]

Saturday began with Big Evs winning the Juvenile Turf Sprint at 3.2/1 locally, a fantastic result for the brilliant Mick Appleby and his team. The Juvenile Fillies winner paid 7/1, Juvenile Fillies Turf winner 9.1/1 and the Juvenile winner Fierceness returned just better than 16/1 on track. Then it got top heavy...

The Ryan Moore-ridden and Aidan O'Brien-trained Unquestionable won the Juvenile Turf at 6/4 on the board to close out Friday's quintet of Cup races, and that began an almost unbroken run of success for horses at, or very close to, the top of the wagering lists.

Cody's Wish (more anon), Inspiral, Goodnight Olive, Master Of The Seas, Idiomatic, Auguste Rodin, White Abarrio and Elite Power all paid 3.3/1 or less - indeed, all bar the wide-drawn Master Of The Seas paid 2.6/1 or shorter. The one spot of respite came from 12/1 Turf Sprint winner Nobals so, if you were looking away from the top end and didn't find him, you were in plenty of betting bother. Signing in on that score.

The table below shows that not only was Saturday's card the lowest average mutuel return of any Breeders' Cup for three-year-old-plus races, but also the entire two-day event had the lowest average mutuel return since the meeting was extended to more than seven races (note the gaps in the first six rows of cells).

 

 

It was a year for keeping it simple, all right, and personally I was guilty of over-complication, as were many finer judges on site in Arcadia. It's very frustrating when it happens this way; as you can see from the full table above, it doesn't normally happen this way!

Vive Les Euros!

We Europeans, or British and Irish if you prefer, focus almost exclusively on the turf. And that's because the trainers who send horses across do likewise: we know these horses and the very fact that they're sent all that way - some of them even getting to run! - advertises their prospects.

But they don't typically perform so well. British or Irish-trained horses won two of the three Friday turf races, and ran second in the other; and three of the four Saturday turf races, and finished third and fourth in the other. In the races our local horses won, there were also four 1-2 finishes. That is almost unheard of dominance.

The Juvenile Turf Sprint was a trifecta for the raiders, which if you happened to select the right three of the six Euro participants (or all of them in combination) paid $1,378.40 for a dollar. Or £1,378.40 for a pound 😉

Aidan O'Brien had a meeting to remember even in the absence of River Tiber and Bolshoi Ballet. He still won both races that pair were engaged in (Juvenile Turf and Turf). As I wrote in the Breeders' Cup Compendium report - showing expert hindsight but little foresight - "Aidan’s record in Santa Anita Breeders’ Cups is also (relatively) pedestrian: five wins from 51, and just 3 from 39 since 2012. 2019 was a washout, as was 2014, and there was a single win apiece in 2016, 2013 and 2012. Put another way, Aidan has had just one winner from the last three Santa Anita Breeders’ Cups combined."

Fortunately, I was prudent enough to add a caveat: "Is that a quirk of a small sample size or something more material? In truth, more likely the former than the latter, but it is cause for pause."

That caveat was needed as the Big Guy from Ballydoyle, a nickname absolutely certain not to catch on, saddled two winners, two seconds, a third and a fourth from just eight runners. That, clearly, was a phenomenal performance, with Ryan steering the brace of gold medallists, notably Auguste Rodin in the Turf. It was a ride suggested by many as a genius effort, but it is rare to ride the rail in a US turf race and get the smooth transit he and his horse did; perhaps tellingly, it was French-based Italian Cristian Demuro, riding the Japanese horse Shahryar in America (!), who drifted away from the inside allowing Moore to save all the ground without losing any of the momentum. You make your own luck, as they say, and this was both good and a bit lucky.

Looking at the two-year-old division, it's clear that the North American cohort is a step behind their British and Irish counterparts in 2023, and that largely extends to the seniors, too. It will be interesting to see how the form converges a year from now.

White Abarrio a very grey look

The Breeders' Cup Classic, normally the ninth and final race on the Saturday Cup card, was run seventh in the batting order to accommodate TV schedules; and it delivered a result that, in truth, very few would have hoped for. The sport in the States is desperate to wriggle free of welfare and doping claims and has been unlucky a fair few times recently; but sometimes, as with Ryan in the Turf, you make your own luck.

So it was that Richard Dutrow Jr, warned off for ten years for a litany of medication violations, returned to training in February this year and saddled the Breeders' Cup Classic winner seven months later. To put that into context, Mahmood al Zarooni, the disgraced former Godolphin trainer (remember him?), was banned for eight years by the BHA in 2013: he returned to a more low key conditioner role in the United Arab Emirates in 2021, saddling just nine runners since.

Bizarrely, Dutrow Jr. inherited White Abarrio from Saffie Joseph, another controversial figure. In May this year, shortly before the Kentucky Derby, he was banned from making stakes entries in Kentucky and New York as a result of two of his horses dropping dead within 48 hours of each other; and, though subsequently reinstated, the constraint led to White Abarrio moving barns. Joseph had previously been suspended for 15 days (15 days?!) for another banned substance found in one of his horses in March of this year.

Frankly, the problem here is not with Dutrow Jr. especially, or with Joseph; nor is it with Bob Baffert or any other high profile trainer receiving doping/ medication suspensions. Rather, it is with the authorities which allow such violations to pass with derisory punishments like the one referenced above that scream, "crack on, we don't really care". It is to be hoped HISA will be able to introduce measures that significantly improve the reputation of US racing in this regard.

The Classic itself was an absorbing race, with two fancied speed horses duking it out on the front end until wilting, before the smooth travelling White Abarrio fended off a spirited effort from the Japanese runner Derma Sotogake, who might have won the Kentucky Derby had he not broken poorly and then had a bad trip. This was a massive effort on his first run since, six months later.

Joy and crushing despair for Cody's connections

On Saturday afternoon, the highlight for many at the Breeders' Cup was the tear-jerking heart-warming win of Cody's Wish, who got up in a protracted stretch duel with National Treasure to win the opening Dirt Mile. Cody's Wish is owned by Godolphin but he's named for Cody Dorman, a young man born with Wolf-Hirschhorn Syndrome, a debilitating condition that affects both physical and mental functions.

Cody's Wish was a reason for Cody to look forward, something to enjoy in what must have been an unimaginably difficult life for him and his family. Last year in Keeneland, Cody's Wish won the Dirt Mile and the outpouring of joy was immense; on Saturday, as Cody's horse gutsed it out to best his rival, the emotion surpassed even that of twelve months ago. It was a brilliantly bright day in a life of struggle.

And then, almost unbelievably, on Monday we learned that Cody had suffered a medical incident just a day after Santa Anita which claimed his young life a few weeks shy of his 18th birthday. What a dreadfully awful turn of events. Like everyone else, we send our sympathies and best wishes to Cody's family.

*

The 40th running of the Breeders' Cup was a celebration of the sport of horseracing that encompassed an impossible gamut of emotions. They say life begins at 40; we were reminded that it sometimes doesn't make it that far, and that, at the end of the day, racing is just racing no matter how much joy or pain it brings us.

- Matt

Monday Musings: They Did It!

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So Auguste Rodin, Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore did it, writes Tony Stafford. At the forefront of the Irish stable and its Coolmore ownership team’s £2.7 million return from their trip to Santa Anita, the dual Derby winner emerged as a true champion, not least because of the courage of his trainer.

When the son of Deep Impact trailed home a distant last in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot following his odds-on success at the Curragh, the knives were out.

The Derby form is rubbish they said – “when isn’t it?”, you might ask – and even his win dropped to ten furlongs for the Irish Champion Stakes still had its detractors.

But now, fully justifying (more of that word later) the decision to skip Ascot’s Champion Stakes day and the almost certain heavy ground – I sincerely believe the authorities need to do something about that – he came onto fast turf at Santa Anita and showed the sort of instant acceleration that has impressed the Ballydoyle cognoscenti from day one.

As ever with Aidan, the back-up riders are just as vital. Didn’t Padraig Beggy in 2017 and, three years later, Emmet McNamara emerge from the Chorus Line on the home gallops to win the Derby? They partnered back-up horses, Wings Of Eagles (Beggy) and Serpentine for McNamara, only to disappear from view pretty much thereafter, left with just their memories of that incredible career-garnishing achievement.

There was a bit of a Beggy/McNamara element to this year’s Breeders’ Cup, but it wasn’t that Aidan picked from the 70 or so riders that normally partner first and second lots of the incredibly talented team back home.

This time he “borrowed” a young jockey that has quickly got to near the top of the Irish riding tree, from son Joseph. Dylan Browne McMonagle – still only 20 – has ridden 59 winners in Ireland this year from 539 rides, putting him third only behind champion Colin Keane and Billy Lee.

In a year made difficult for Aidan by the long-term injury early in the year sustained by Wayne Lordan, you might have thought the master of Ballydoyle would have cast his net a little wider. From his 105 domestic wins, Ryan Moore has travelled over for 52 from 123 at 42% and ultra-reliable Seamie Heffernan has 32 from 150 at a more than handy 21%. With Wayne eight from 54 in the spring, there’s just 13 to go round. Surely Dylan would have picked up the pieces. He did, one win from nine rides.

His employment by O’Brien in the UK has been even more sparing, just a single ride on Champions Day at Ascot on Broome, and there he was again on Saturday on the same quirky old veteran apparently making up the numbers in the deep Turf field.

At Ascot, over what has become more his distance in the near two-mile Stayers Championship race, he faded to finish sixth of eight. His perceived role at Santa Anita was to help make the running and ensure a decent pace for the favourite. In the end, Dylan’s knowledge of the horse gained from Ascot did not help at the start as the seven-year-old dwelt as the rest of the field hurried on their way.

Maybe it was good fortune, but McMonagle didn’t rest on his laurels, trying to get to the front and Broome was prominent until understandably beginning to weaken as the last turn approached. Inevitably he fell into the laps of still travelling rivals and certainly Frankie Dettori on King Of Steel and Jim Crowley on Mostahdaf took a rapid diversion to the outside to avoid him.

The trigger effect was a nice gap on the inside. If ever you needed to know how much distance a horse can lose in the US when going wide on the bend this was evident as without doing too much, Ryan, having been some way back in seventh or eighth, was able to enter the straight just behind the lead.

The rail runner route was never more famously displayed than by Calvin Borel in his successive Kentucky Derby wins in 2009/2010, and when it works it looks very clever. Ryan confessed there was an element of good fortune in it but, again, to have a horse talented enough to accept the invitation is rare.

Clearly, Aidan O’Brien doesn’t need to employ a rider regularly to appreciate his talent and here we come to the day before when I’m sure McMonagle must have feared the worst when the local veterinary panel deemed River Tiber unfit to run in Friday’s Juvenile Turf race.

O’Brien took it on the chin in a little more restrained manner than Jessica Harrington, there with an owner who had nothing else to show for their trip. Aidan, of course, had back-up once more but, with Ryan Moore’s first pick an absentee, Frankie Dettori was booked for second string Unquestionable with McMonagle on longshot Mountain Bear.

Although only a winner of a maiden race previously, Unquestionable made plenty of friends with his second, a length behind Richard Hannon-trained Rosellion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at the Arc meeting. Ryan promptly pulled rank leaving Dettori without a mount, unless…

Well, “unless” didn’t happen, and while Ryan came the inside route to get by the Americans in the straight while Dylan went widest of all, collecting with a flying finish the not inconsiderable runner-up prize of £141k as the trainer supplied the one-two.

If the Coolmore partners didn’t have enough pockets to cram the £2.7 million (less deductions!) into by 24 hours later, I’m sure Joseph’s protégé would have been planning what he might be doing with what must have been an unexpected windfall.

European horses once again made the Americans look ordinary in most of the turf races, with Mick Appleby’s Big Evs more than living up to his sprinting prowess back home by giving the home speedsters a lesson in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. If Godolphin had a quietish time of it, the identity of Big Evs’ sire, their first-season sensation Blue Point, would have kept them smiling wherever Sheikh Mo and co were last weekend.

While the two best male and female stars from the Ballydoyle academy were back home munching away unaware of their joint objectives in next year’s 2000 and 1000 Guineas, their paternal relatives, Just FYI in the Juvenile Fillies’ and Hard To Justify in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf which followed, were adding both lustre and the degree of versatility to their sire.

City Of Troy’s and Opera Singer’s return to action will be awaited with interest. I can tell you, if you are being impatient, the first weekend in May will come around quicker this time than any year previously. Then we can see if my exaggerated comments about City Of Troy are indeed Justified.

- TS

Monday Musings: Troy Worth Weight in Gold

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There was a space next to me for Aidan O’Brien to slide into as we had a late lunch on Saturday, delayed by the excitements we’d just seen on the track, writes Tony Stafford. To my observation that I’d written that City Of Troy was the best two-year-old I’d ever seen, performance-wise, after the Superlative Stakes back in July, Aidan simply said: “He is”, adding, “I know you did, I read that in your column again last week”.

Ever generous with his comments, I’m sure ITV viewers would have heard the same sentiment a little earlier, but like many other people I was at the time too carried up in the euphoria of seeing a performance so rare in a championship race. Even some of the great horses have made hard work of winning the Dewhurst Stakes on their way to 2000 Guineas or Derby triumph the following year.

Frankel comes immediately to mind as one that didn’t struggle, having comfortably beaten O’Brien’s Roderic O’Connor (Irish 2000 Guineas winner the following May) in his Dewhurst on his fourth start of a 14-race unbeaten career. Two other Group 1 winners were his victims in his first three two-year-old appearances.

Nathaniel (two King Georges) gave him a tussle on debut on Newmarket’s July Course while O’Brien’s Treasure Beach (Irish Derby) was only third when they met in the Royal Lodge immediately before the Dewhurst. These were notable early scalps for the colt that brought such lustre to the end of Sir Henry Cecil’s epic career, and to Prince Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte Farms.

That Frankel is the yardstick to which City Of Troy has aspiration to be measured was immediately and inevitably emphasised as Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith called Saturday’s winner “our Frankel”. If Aidan and Ryan Moore are to be believed, he is.

They waited for Ryan to report back after finishing second in the opener behind one of two smart Charlie Appleby winning juveniles on the day before taking the final fateful step to run. Ryan said, confounding the relatively quick time, which he explained was due to the strong following wind, that the ground was deep and holding.

A quick consultation between trainer and Messrs Tabor and Smith resulted in the decision to let him take his chance. As Michael said: “He can only lose”, a throwback to the 2000 Guineas debacle for subsequent dual Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner Auguste Rodin. It isn’t the races you lose that count, but those you win. Now they know he can handle deep ground.

Of course, I wasn’t by any means the only media observer of the July humbling of subsequent Vintage Stakes winner Haatem to express extravagant comments. On Racing TV, Nick Luck’s first words as Ryan pulled up the son of US Triple Crown winner and Coolmore stallion Justify were: “Find me a better two-year-old and I don’t think you will. Not this year anyway.”

On his programme on the channel yesterday morning, he had Hughie Morrison, Racing Post’s Lee Mottershead, and recently retired jockey Louis Steward, and all three agreed with the presenter that here was a horse out of the ordinary.

Luck confessed that as the year went on and various other options rather than the conventional UK Classic format were being mentioned, with the Middle Park and Kentucky Derby as tentative plans, and I quote, “I cashed in my Guineas and Derby bets”. Silly Nick!

Back to Aidan, and when you think that he and the Coolmore partners have won a joint-record eight Dewhurst Stakes, six of them since 2013, for him to consider City Of Troy unquestionably the best, that is some recommendation indeed.

As we munched away, he explained, “We’ve never been able to get him tired and that hasn’t ever been the case with any of our horses before him”. To go back and watch the last furlong of his three runs – on debut at the Curragh challenged in the form the furlong pole but pushed out before going away for a comfortable victory; on the July Course exploding clear of decent opposition; and now, when asked, again surging away going up to the line, without ever seeing a hint of interruption in his perfect stride pattern in any of them.

 

Sectional times by furlong for the Dewhurst Stakes field, the winner accelerating impressively away on soft ground

 

It’s one thing to do it on fast summer going, quite another to replicate it on deep ground, but as he sailed along happily in front, initially at a steady gallop and then one marginally increased by Ryan before a quickening between the penultimate and final furlongs, the gulf in class was starkly evident.

As with Frankel in his 2000 Guineas, when the fringe performers were catching him to a minor degree at the line after the verdict was long decided, so it was on Saturday. Willie Ryan, a Derby winning jockey in his younger days and long-time observer of all the greats with a close up of Frankel’s career and more recently all the best Godolphin horses in Charlie Appleby’s yard, was adamant. “I know the Rowley Mile is a great front-runner’s track, so Ryan was right to dictate, but to do it like that in any championship race, and especially the Dewhurst, was very special.”

Justify may have won the 2018 Triple Crown in the US, as had another Coolmore America stallion, American Pharoah, two years earlier, but the equivalent feat has yet to have been achieved here since Nijinsky and Vincent O’Brien from the same yard in 1970. Camelot went close for the team in 2012, winning the 2000 Guineas and Derby before finishing runner-up in the St Leger, but if ever a pedigree suggested they can finally end the long wait for another, City Of Troy surely has it.

Galileo’s final crop of two-year-olds this year signals an imminent end of a golden era for Coolmore and the partners’ trainer, but he leaves Frankel as his top successor. Inevitably, Galileo appears prominently in City Of Troy’s pedigree and increasingly we will see the Justify on Galileo mares cross as it becomes obvious how effective it is, with so many high-class racemares the great champion has bequeathed the operation. Like his ill-fated but still highly influential sire Scat Daddy before him, Justify, who was bred by John Gunther, produces top-class turf horses.

With eight three-year-olds and a dozen juveniles to represent him in 2023 from Ballydoyle, the results have been spectacular already. City Of Troy’s exploits against the boys have been almost mirrored by Opera Singer, five-length winner of the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at the Arc meeting two weekends ago. She is by Justify out of a mare by Sadler’s Wells, of course the sire of Galileo.

City Of Troy’s dam, Together Forever, had already produced four classy winners before City Of Troy. She is by Galileo and if that wasn’t evidence enough, her mother was by Theatrical, another noted stamina influence.

The year of 2024 promises to be tremendously exciting with potential dreams of the first Triple Crown for 54 years. Whereas Frankel did not get the opportunity to show that he would have been just as superior to all-comers at a mile and a half – the ten furlongs and 56 yards of the fast York track in an easy demolition of his Juddmonte International Stakes rivals on penultimate start was the furthest he attempted - I’m sure City Of Troy will tackle that longer trip. Hopefully that will happen at Epsom on the first Saturday of June.

As media director Richard Henry observed to fellow Coolmore executive Christy Grassick as they walked towards the winner’s circle straight after witnessing the sublime performance of their stable star, “Now we know what we’ll be thinking about through the winter”. Clearly, he cannot wait for the first Saturday in May.

Neither can I!

- TS

Monday Musings: Continuous Relentlessness

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If you enjoy perfection, as I am certain it’s something for which the British Horseracing Authority’s handicappers strive for every day, then the St Leger was something of a disappointment, writes Tony Stafford. It will have been doubly so I’m sure for Mr Michael Harris, the gentleman responsible for flat races over 11 furlongs and above.

The ratings for the nine runners (four from the redoubtable O’Brien team) were, in finishing order, Conspicuous 115, Arrest 114, Desert Hero 110, Tower Of London 109, Gregory 111, Chesspiece 109, Middle Earth 102, pacemaker Denmark 102, and Alexandropolis 101.

What was wrong with him? On his rating, surely Gregory should have been third, but maybe a clue to why he wasn’t: John Gosden came over to Aidan before the race and told him he thought the Golden Horns do not like soft ground. It seemed Gregory didn’t.

Obviously, it was a major triumph for Mr Harris, who no doubt will push up the winner into the 120’s and therefore offer hope that he can go to the Arc in a fortnight’s time with a chance of emulating the trainer’s so far only two wins (Dylan Thomas 2007) and Found (2016) in the great French race at ParisLongchamp – see I remembered!

That has been the immediate target for the last four Coolmore St Leger winners but to no avail. The best candidate in 2023 of course would probably have been Auguste Rodin, dual Derby and Irish Champion Stakes hero who, as Ryan reminded me emphatically after yesterday’s win, is firmly online for the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

O’Brien has won 16 races at that late autumn extravaganza, and he is sure to have another formidable team to represent himself and his owners who have kept him supplied with high-class material in the entirety of his career. But it’s what you do with raw material.

The numbers are even more mind-boggling for the five Classic races on either side of the Irish Sea. Saturday’s triumph put him on 43 Classic wins in the UK over the 26 seasons since King Of Kings, 1998 2000 Guineas and Shahtoush (Oaks) gave him a double right at the start of his time as master of Ballydoyle.

He got going a year earlier at home, where he has 50 domestic Classic wins so far with 15 in the Irish Derby leading the way. Here it’s seven in the 1000 Guineas, 10 in the 2000 Guineas, nine in the Derby, ten in the Oaks and seven in the St Leger. The relative home scores are 10, 12, 15, seven and six.

It seems O’Brien has more respect for the status of the Doncaster version, a race that has survived many questions as to three considerations; that it should remain the province of three-year-olds, that they should be only entire colts or fillies; and that it should remain at the one mile, six furlongs and 115 yards of yore. The Irish race has kept its trip of one mile six, but has long been open to geldings and older horses.

Continuous was an appropriate name for a Coolmore winner and there was also much delight, especially from Christy Grassick, in the immediate aftermath. He was doubly delighted, as he celebrated a second Japanese-bred winner this year after Auguste Rodin, while glorying in the identity of the maternal grand-sire, you guessed it, that late but unquestionably very great Galileo.

That champion’s victory in the 2001 Derby was Aidan’s first at Epsom and also marked the arrival on the Ballydoyle scene of Michael Tabor. Start as you intend to go on might well be his mantra. John Magnier and his formidable back-up team – son M V was busily shopping at Keeneland September last week with sire sensation Into Mischief the latest to attract his attention – have no mind to ease off.

Their perennial search is to identify and secure from the major racing and breeding establishments around the world suitable outcross stallions to prolong the potency of the Northern Dancer/ Sadler’s Wells/ Galileo legend. I don’t think they will go far wrong if history is anything to go by.

Continuous in a way exemplified the manner of O’Brien’s training, one of continuous improvement.  The son of Heart’s Cry (Sunday Silence) did win his only two races at two, including a Group 3, but when third to The Foxes in the Dante at York and eighth in the Prix du Jockey Club, his limitations seemed there for all to see.

Next though, in finishing a four-length Royal Ascot runner-up to Epsom Derby second King Of Speed he moved up a notch in the hierarchy in Tipperary. An easy success in that most informative of all St Leger trials, York’s Great Voltigeur, should have been enough to convince the sceptics, as it established him as an obvious candidate.

He needed to nudge ahead of the filly Savethelastdance, but when the Epsom runner-up and Irish Oaks winner was beaten into third behind emerging stable-companion Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks on fast ground, her challenge lost some of its impetus. Warm Heart’s victory in the Prix Vermeille last weekend only solidified Savethelastdance’s credentials.

Ironically, had she turned up on Saturday, she would have had the ground to her liking and been worthy of her place in the field against the colts. With the chance of easy ground for her remaining potential targets, she should be fine and O’Brien should be able to find another big target for her before the end of the year.

Continuous had one ingredient that the other eight runners on Town Moor lacked, an instant turn of speed which should make him a threat at 12 furlongs in Paris. No doubt the major Japanese studs, especially Shadai Farm, will be having their eyes on at least a shared stallion deal if not an outright buy. It would take many, many millions of yen to secure him at 183 yen to the £.

It was nice to feel close to the action on Saturday. We had lunch in a room next door to the Royal Box, which unusually for Doncaster had two attendees (the King and Queen) giving veracity to its title. The snag was the corridors were thronged with security people at every turn.

We left the room before they did, but without an escort, I got sidetracked, neither getting into the paddock until the horses had left for the start, and didn’t see them either, unlike most of the crowd who enjoyed their presence and the performance of his horse Desert Hero, trained by William Haggas for a creditable third behind Frankie Dettori on runner-up Arrest.

At least, going to watch by the winning line, it was easy to enjoy Ryan’s clockwork ride from ground level and then to be involved in the post-race photo upon Aidan’s “Come on Tony” exhortation.

So we were left to marvel at the skill of the man with 93 UK and Irish Classic winners to his credit and yet still only in his mid-50’s. To gauge what it means in modern terms, the late Sir Henry Cecil managed 25, saving the best for last with Galileo’s son Frankel in the 2000 Guineas. Sir Michael Stoute has 16 to his credit and John Gosden (with or without Thady) a round dozen. In statistical terms, of the 260 Classic races in that time, he has won getting on for 40% of them and of the UK, just about 35%.

All that was left was to wonder whether Howard Wright was there? My former colleague at the Daily Telegraph had indeed trekked up from Surrey to his birth town and while I neglected to poke my nose in the press room, he was in attendance.

“Yes, I missed the first three,” said Howard yesterday, “But this was my 75th anniversary, so I’ve seen the last 76.” As I said, I should have called in, but greed got the better of me. A few yards from the far end of the main car park is a fantastic fish and chip shop. I can’t manage chips yet, but as my neuralgia seems to be responding to treatment, the famed scampi was fine.

I always used to say that I could make a portion of this delicious concoction last me all the way down to Grantham. I called for the larger (ten) option, but it barely got me to Bawtry. On second thoughts, I must have been a double-ten portion man. Figures! I love the St Leger, almost as much as Aidan, Ryan and the Coolmore boys.

  • TS

Monday Musings: Newmarket 875

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If you arrange an outdoor promotional event in Newmarket in the summer, the morning of the July Cup, you would think, would be the ideal time, writes Tony Stafford. Judging by the light summer dresses and shirtsleeves on view in the High Street earlier on Saturday morning, the decision by Hanako and Roger Varian to launch Hanako’s luxury new fashion brand Newmarket 875 at Carlburg stables in Bury Road that morning was perfectly logical.

The July meeting 2022 had been conducted in the middle of one of the many heatwaves of last summer. By contrast, last week thunderstorms randomly struck all over the country, but as I drove up to the yard the weather was clear and l was just able to sneak a last spot in the car park.

The sun was still making an appearance, but as I approached the marquee where Hanako was steeling herself to address her audience, suddenly the heavens opened. Within seconds, a torrential downpour had stable and catering staff scrambling to close any possible ingress from the elements, while the brand founder fluently delivered her reasons for the creation of her project.

Hanako explained that from the age of 14 back home in Japan, she had been involved with horses, riding as a show jumper. At 18 she decided to come to England, aiming to develop her skill with the animals she loved. Over the last 25 years, latterly married to one of the world’s leading trainers, she has been closely involved, observing horse racing all over the world.

Her conclusion of that lengthy experience is that this is a pivotal time for horse racing. American racing, she says, is suffering from drug and medication issues. UK and Irish racing have funding issues and are also hampered by a declining work force, while France, despite boasting the best prizemoney in Europe, finds it difficult to attract domestic owners.

It was almost with embarrassment that she concluded that the only country where racing is thriving is her homeland. Prize money is in a level of its own and their home-bred horses are more than a match for any from the remaining principal racing and breeding locations. The Varians had a lightning trip last week to the northernmost Japanese island of Hokkaido, home of the famed Shadai and Northern stud farms.

On Monday and Tuesday, Japan’s Select yearling and foal sales were staged and up to 1,000 registered buyers were attempting to secure one of these potentially top-class animals, yearlings on Monday and foals on Tuesday. Each would-be bidder was required to have his finances in place beforehand, so there would be no chance of a repeat of the embarrassing and much-publicised non-payment issues that befell Tattersalls last year.

Roger Varian said: “It was my first time at the sale, although I have been to Japan around a dozen times before. The yearling sale was not unlike Tattersalls, except that the lots were easier to find, ranged in a near numerical order rather than randomly all around the sale.

“The foal sale on Tuesday was very different. Around 250 were catalogued, and each stood with its mother, loosely in numerical order. More astute buyers had the chance to view the respective foals’ sires at the nearby stud farms beforehand. Then, by looking at the mare and foal together, they could get a good idea of how that foal might develop physically,” he said.

Back home in Newmarket, Hanako has, with designer Joe Baker, developed a high-end clothing range with a Newmarket theme, along with luxury accessories, aimed to reflect the glamorous nature of horse racing and breeding in the town.

Examples of the beautifully crafted shirts and other clothing items were ranged around the marquee, interspersed with some imaginatively designed belts, shoe-horns, handbags and the like, all with a horse theme. Hanako was quick to emphasise how important sustainability has been in the creation of the concept.

It is hoped that Harrods, Selfridges, and other leading stores in the UK will stock Newmarket 875 products, although in the meantime they can be viewed and bought on the website, newmarket875.com. The ambitious project will then be aimed at New York, Paris, and other fashion hotspots around the world. Hanako firmly believes horse racing in the UK has plenty to be proud of and hopes Newmarket 875 will become an emblem of that proud tradition.

*

Back down at the July Course, something happened that might well reignite the age-old debate about whether the weight-for-age scale is of relevance in the present day. Framed in the distant past and only minutely modified since, weight for age still stands to tell us when three-year-old, four-year-old and even older horses cease to receive a concession from older generations in such races.

Often, when the three-year-olds keep winning condition races in the middle of the season against their elders, admittedly on a sliding and less generous scale as the year progresses, calls are made for its revision or even removal.

Interestingly, I was told by one emerging trainer a few weeks back that the unraced two-year-old filly he was running that afternoon had worked better than an 86-rated older horse.

I took that to mean a four-year-old – but it could have been a year younger. That said, to achieve that result was astonishing and I’m not sure that the rookie trainer concerned had consulted the scale to get the full implications of the gallop.

Anyway, she won nicely, even though only third in the betting in a field of five behind a previous promising debut runner-up and a penalised previous winner. She is set for a step up in grade next time.

But on Saturday we had a moment when a second run, this time in a Listed contest, Newmarket’s Superlative Stakes, threatens to blow the entire WFA scale into the water.

Once-raced City Of Troy, impressive on debut in a maiden at The Curragh, lined up as a well-backed 4/6 shot for the Coolmore partners, amid concerns that the heavy if intermittent rains of the previous few days, plus the sudden torrent I just avoided up the road at 11 a.m. might have made the ground unsuitable.

But, as Aidan O’Brien chatted with Christy Grassick and Paul Smith along with Ryan Moore beforehand, he said that the ground there was still better than is customary, say, for the National Stakes at The Curragh in September.

Cue relief all round: after all, Aidan has won 11 National Stakes, albeit none of the last six. He’s also behind namesake Vincent who has 15 and gets to have the race named after him nowadays, reasonably enough.

The Superlative Stakes was won with a breathtaking burst of speed by City Of Troy, who after duelling for the lead from the off, was let loose by Ryan coming into the last furlong and a half and stormed – he really did storm, I promise you – to a six and a half length verdict, with daylight second.

Handily, on that card, apart from the six-furlong Group 1 July Cup, won in similarly impressive fashion by Commonwealth Cup winner Shaquille, there were two more seven-furlong contests, both handicaps. The winning time of the Group 1 race was, understandably, the best by a second in relation to standard times, while the three contests over an extra furlong were completed in similar times, all very respectably.

First, there was a three-year-old 0-100 handicap, won nicely by the filly Naomi Lapaglia, carrying 8st 4lb in a time 2.82 seconds above standard. Then came the Superlative and City Of Troy, shouldering 9st 3lb and clocking 0.11 seconds slower.

Finally, the Bunbury Cup, a Heritage Handicap with a storied history, was won by Ralph Beckett’s 6yo Biggles, ridden by Ryan Moore, coming home in a time 0.33 seconds faster than City Of Troy. He, coincidentally, carried the same weight as the, erm, superlative Superlative winner.

I asked a few friends who keep up their interest in racing day to day and they all know a fair bit about the sport and have all gone racing with me many times. The question was: What’s the weight for age between 2yo’s and older horses at 7f in the first half (just) of July. To a man they replied, “About a stone.” I answered that, if that were the case, then to run almost an identical performance to the Bunbury Cup winner would have been meritorious.

The reaction when I told them it was 38lb in the first half of July and 35lb thereafter (8lb less against 3yos), was stunned silence. No doubt the scale is probably a shade outdated. Two-year-olds traditionally had their first chance of a run over seven furlongs in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Nowadays a lot more stoutly bred animals are precocious as well and more ready to run over the trip than in earlier days.

But cutting to the chase, that was a monstrous performance. City Of Troy has been allotted an early RPR in the Racing Post, of course always open to alteration and downright fudge, which exceeds that given to Thursday’s fluent Group 2 6f July Stakes winner Jasour, trained by Clive Cox, by 8lb.

Inevitably, thoughts projected to the other track and May next year for City of Troy. Aidan remarked before the race, he hadn’t really thought him a big horse until he stood into him. As he returned to unsaddle, amid the sort of buzz of excitement only rarely experienced on a British racecourse, he seemed to have grown another hand taller!

The best news for the Coolmore boys was that this colt is a son of their unbeaten Triple Crown-winning US-based Ashford stud stallion, Justify. Long-range optimism even for the Derby must be included, too,  with the knowledge that Justify won the 12f Belmont Stakes on the most galloping track in North America after making all the running.

O’Brien and Ryan Moore might have initially found a trip yesterday to France proving frustrating as His Majesty, placed in his last two runs at Group 2, made it a hat-trick in second. But it was another Justify runner, this time four-length Christopher Head filly Ramatuelle, who impressed. After sprinting well clear in City Of Troy fashion in the Prix Robert Papin at Chantilly, she has serious claims of being the best juvenile in France so far this year.

  • TS

Monday Musings: Aidan’s Curragh Monopoly

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You would think a €1.25 million pot would be enough to entice raiders from across the water to the Irish Derby, writes Tony Stafford. English connections of six of the nine runners duly did arrive at The Curragh in anticipation of the second Derby win of Auguste Rodin, and some friends and family too, but as far as the horses were concerned, it was a private party for the home team.

A length-and-a-half victory for the 4/11 shot, Aidan O’Brien’s almost obscene 15th success in his principal home Classic, might smack of routine, but routine it definitely was not.

Aidan had five runners, all for the Coolmore boys, and Messrs Tabor and Smith were on hand, along with John Magnier and Georg Von Opel alias Westerberg. Donnacha and Joseph supplied one each, Donnacha’s for the boys, although Joseph’s fifth home – incidentally behind four of his father’s – Up And Under, has Go Racing Ltd as its owner and I’ve no idea who they are or where they come from.

In the Derby at Epsom, nine of the 14 runners were trained in England. Runner-up King Of Steel gave the winner quite a battle before giving best, and was a full five lengths clear of the rest of the field. Roger Varian’s colt lived up to it in a fluent victory at Royal Ascot in the King Edward VII Stakes. There he had two of the better-fancied runners from Epsom similarly well beaten again.

They were Artistic Star (Ralph Beckett) and Arrest (John and Thady Gosden) and the way they were put in their place by the Epsom runner-up gave a very solid look to the form.

You could see why none of the other, more remote, Derby Day also-rans from the UK took on the re-match. There was more realism in the second challenges of home-team contenders White Birch, third for the John Joseph Murphy stable, and Sprewell (fourth for Jessica Harrington), and unsurprisingly they were the second and third in the betting yesterday and the only two at single-figure odds.

Neither replicated the Epsom form, but in some ways neither did the winner. As had been the case there, where Adelaide River cut out much of the running, he again set the pace. He had been a well-beaten eighth at Epsom, but now it took a long while for the favourite to master him.

Much of the story of the race, though, involved the one Aidan runner not to be involved in the finish. This was San Antonio, a son of Dubawi, who at 16/1 was the second shortest of the Ballydoyle quintet even after he finished as far back as 11th at Epsom.

Here he was galloping happily alongside and just behind Adelaide River with the favourite in customary Irish Derby O’Brien comfort zone, close up, when suddenly four furlongs from home, San Antonio broke down and unseated Wayne Lordan. San Antonio sadly was fatally injured having fractured his right foreleg. Lordan was taken to Tallaght Hospital where last night he was said to be “concussed but fully conscious and able to move all limbs”..

The fall caused interference to the favourite and considerably more to some of those in behind including the two other home hopes, who both ran below par, their riders and trainers blaming the incident.

Ryan Moore certainly thought leaving Auguste Rodin without cover on the outside of the leader was a major contributor to what appeared a workmanlike at best performance. With a strong headwind in the first half of the race, and a tailwind in the straight, leading had been hard work initially and then pegging back the leaders just as difficult in the run home.

Eventually Auguste Rodin got on terms and, with his rider working hard, edged ahead, but Adelaide River, in Moore’s words, having enjoyed “the run of the race”, was even pegging back the favourite, and in no way looking a 33/1 shot.

Covent Garden, 80/1 in third, had been three lengths behind Sprewell in his latest race, the trial the Harrington horse won before Epsom. It was left to Peking Opera (66/1), a disappointment in the Queen’s Vase (1m6f) at the Royal meeting 12 days previously, to take fourth under Tom Marquand.

We’ve been accustomed in recent years of O’Brien multiple representation, especially at Epsom, to see more than one Ballydoyle work jockey step into the limelight: Padraig Beggy (Wings of Eagles, 2017) and Emmet McNamara (Serpentine, 2020) picked up career defining wins in the greatest race in the UK Calendar, but the home boys have stayed home of late.

Now, the five Ballydoyle horses were ridden by the regular trio of Moore, Heffernan and the unfortunate Lordan, while Tom Marquand will be happy to pick up his rider’s share of 50k for the fourth place of Peking Opera. Former Irish champion Declan McDonagh (2006) and more frequently riding nowadays for Joseph, finished third. Not a chalk jockey in sight!

They are clearly taking ever more careful account of jockeyship, something which especially concerns Michael Tabor; and his championing of Moore was the main reason for that appointment after Johnny Murtagh’s time there ended. Ryan has been riding with renewed vigour and enterprise, and at Ascot his energy and tactical awareness were the best we’ve seen from a flat race jockey for a long time. That has filtered through to his regular trips across to Ireland where before racing yesterday, he jointly led the riders’ table on 30 wins.

O’Brien sits second to the Gosdens in the UK trainers’ prizemoney list, having won £2,746,146 against Big John and Little Thady’s [he’s not that little! – Ed.] £3,210,084. At home, before racing yesterday, he was on more than €1.8 million. That has swelled to just a few Euro over the three milion mark, almost three times Joseph’s far from negligible tally in second.

Tabor was fulsome in his praise of his trainer yesterday. It is salutary to relate that it was only a few years ago that the media and those rumour mills, always so prevalent in racing, were predicting that David O’Meara was about to take over at Ballydoyle and that the Coolmore owners were ready to jettison their man.

John Magnier must go down in racing history as the genius who discovered the man to follow his unelated namesake but equally supreme, Vincent O’Brien.

When he retired, Vincent got an honorary doctorate and was forever thereafter described as Dr O’Brien. Maybe somebody can think up an appropriate appellation for Aidan when he allows someone else to win the Derby (nine and counting) and Irish Derby (15). It must be something unique as there’s been nobody like him.

Ryan Moore, so much more at ease with the media nowadays – the natural caution of this private young man having been hard for him to come to terms with - also was fulsome in his praise of the trainer. He said that over the past ten years he had provided so many good horses for him to ride. Auguste Rodin was Ryan’s first winner of the Curragh race, to go with his three at Epsom, two for O’Brien including last month.

The rest of the season is panning out quite nicely for them with such as Irish 2.000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes winner Paddington dominating the mile division for now and, despite his near miss at Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup, top sprint honours can still come the way of Little Big Bear.

As for the two-year-olds, there was a rare reverse in yesterday’s opener when close Ascot third Bucanero Fuerte rallied late to get the better of Aidan’s favourite, Unquestionable, in the Railway Stakes. The pair, both sons of Coolmore’s star young stallion Wootton Bassett, were miles clear of the third-placed His Majesty, who had been a close fourth in the Norfolk Stakes.

That followed two wins at the start of both Friday and Saturday’s Curragh cards, all comfortably achieved. The highlight undoubtedly was the facile all-the-way win of Frankel filly Ylang Ylang on debut on Saturday. This 1.5 million gns buy from Newsells Park Stud had the look of a guaranteed contender for races like the Moyglare Stud Stakes. I was at Chester on Friday night watching another Wootton Bassett colt, owned in partnership by Newsells Park with Jonathan Barnett and trained by Michael Bell.

He ran a promising first race finishing third to Witness Stand who looked very smart. Tom Clover trains that one. It took five hours without stopping to get back from Chester which was just five minutes less than the journey home from Lingfield (one third the distance) on Saturday when a three-hour wait on the M25 put in perspective how lucky I had been with my five hours each way on the M6 on Friday.

It wasn’t entirely a weekend without enterprise by English trainers. Michael Dods sent his top-class sprint handicapper Commanche Falls for the Listed six-furlong race yesterday and was rewarded with a nice payday as he outpaced the local speedsters.

But his chance was there for all to see. Much less obvious were the claims of the Hughie Morrison-trained and Arbib family-owned Stay Alert, a Group 3 winner last year, but only fifth behind Free Will and Rogue Millennium in the Middleton Stakes at York.

In running an excellent second in the Yulang Pretty Polly Stakes on Saturday to the George Boughey favourite Via Sistina, she collected valuable Group 1 placed black type as a 25/1 shot, and can go on from here.

The winner looks a top performer. Boughey has lost one major owner from his yard after a run of unfortunate veterinary issues during Royal Ascot but the way he spoke diplomatically about his former client, wishing him and his family all the best, suggested he has the right temperament for this tricky profession in which he has started out so well.

- TS

Jockey Profiles: Ryan Moore

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The second in my series of articles on jockeys and, this time, Ryan Moore comes under the microscope.

Ryan Moore Introduction

Ryan Moore was born in Brighton in 1983 and he rode his first winner in the year 2000. Three years later, he broke through the 50 winners in a year barrier and, in 2004, he notched up his first century (132). In his early career he rode primarily for Richard Hannon but, by the mid-2000s, Moore was getting an increasing number of rides for Sir Michael Stoute. It was for Sir Michael that he recorded his first Group 1 success with Notnowcato in the Juddmonte Stakes at York in August 2006. In 2011 he started being noticed by Aidan O’Brien and, by 2016, he had ridden over 100 times in a season for the Irish maestro in the UK and Ireland combined. The Coolmore Stud provided the vast majority of these rides from the Ballydoyle handler, giving Moore the opportunity to ride some of the very top horses in training. In 2017 he secured his 2000th British winner and Moore is a definitely a jockey who justifies a deep dive into his statistical performance.

As with the Hollie Doyle piece I have analysed the last eight full years of flat racing in the UK and Ireland (2015-2023). I have used the Profiler Tool along with the Query Tool as the main vehicles for my data gathering. In all the tables profit/loss quoted is to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

Ryan Moore: Overall Record

Let's first look at Moore’s overall stats by reviewing his performance on every single runner during this eight-year period:

 

 

An excellent strike rate for Moore, in excess of one win in every five, primarily due to the fact that a sizable percentage of his rides are on fancied runners at shorter prices. This market detail also partly accounts for the fact that the PRB figure is very high at 0.63. His A/E index, a ratio that essentially determines value, is around the average for all jockeys.

We can also see that backing all his rides blind would have secured losses of nearly 21p in the £ to SP; to BSP the returns improve, but we still would have lost around 12p for every £1 staked.

Ryan Moore: UK v Ireland

It is relevant to distinguish performance in the UK versus Ireland for Moore because there is a quite a difference:

 

 

As can be seen, Moore's record in Ireland is far superior in terms of win percentage. This is mainly due to the fact that, in Ireland, 93% of his rides have been for Aidan O’Brien, whereas in the UK this combo stands at just 17% of total rides. O’Brien runners are rarely big prices so as a result of this one would expect to see that high strike rate for Moore in Ireland. However, perhaps what is more significant is if we look at the data for horses from the top three in the betting, comparing Ryan's record in the UK with his record in Ireland.

 

 

We are now comparing like for like from a betting market perspective. And yet still we see a stronger performance in Ireland and a much higher strike rate, as well as significantly better returns and a stronger A/E index. It should be noted we get a similar set of results if using a price bracket of say 5/1 or less. Already I am thinking Moore riding in Ireland is something to keep an eye on.

Ryan Moore: Record by Year

Annual data are the next port of call. Here is a breakdown by win percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

Six of the eight years have seen a strike rate of over 20%; 2019 and 2020 were the years to dip below that figure. One obvious reason that may help explain this lower level was that Aidan O’Brien slightly under-performed at the same time. Obviously that would have affected Moore’s record as he rides so regularly for the stable. Moreover, 2020 was Covid-affected with Moore largely unable to ride in Ireland: he had just 15 rides, across Irish Champions Weekend, with two wins and another five placed horses.

If we track the yearly strike rates of both trainer and jockey we can see there is a clear correlation:

 

 

As punters we need to appreciate that in most cases jockeys are only as good as the horses they are riding, and those primarily riding for top stables will win more often than jockeys who ride regularly for ‘lesser’ stables. This is why when researchers drill into data they often use price bands to compare in order to offer a fairer comparison (like I did earlier in the UK v Ireland – top three in the betting stats). Talking of price, let's look at this area next:

Ryan Moore: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

The Profiler offers a breakdown of performance by Starting Price splitting the market into seven price brackets. I have taken Moore’s record straight from that table:

 

 

As can be seen, Moore does not ride many genuine outsiders – less than 50 rides on horses priced 28/1 or bigger in the last eight years. From the table, then, it looks sensible to concentrate on horses priced 17/2 or shorter. When using BSP with these shorter priced runners one would have lost only around 6p in the £ across 3549 qualifiers. That's not too bad given the huge sample. In fact we would have made a small profit to BSP last year (2022) on horses with an industry SP of 17/2 or shorter. Hindsight, eh?

One clear problem with jockeys as well renowned as Moore is securing value. How easy is it to obtain value on a Moore mount? Clearly it is not easy, so we need to keep digging!

Ryan Moore: Record by Distance

A look at Ryan's record at different distances now. I have grouped them into five distance bands. Again I am comparing strike rates:

 

 

The one distance bracket that stands out from a strike rate perspective is 1m1f to 1m3f. The data sample is considerable so one would guess there is something going on here. But what could be happening? The first point to clarify is there is not a field size-related bias, even if 7f-1m races have a slightly bigger average field size than other distances.

One factor could be that Moore rarely blasts his runners out of the gates and hence tends to front run in races less than the average jockey. With that in mind, this might be what is hindering his strike rate figures at shorter distances (less than a mile). Over longer distances the front running bias declines considerably and hence in 1m1f to 1m3f this is not such an issue. That is one plausible idea.

Another theory is linked to the fact he rides many of the best bred middle distance horses in the world, usually for O'Brien / Coolmore Stud. Indeed if you look at the distance stats for Moore when riding for O’Brien, the best distance range for the pair is also 1m1f to 1m3f – hitting close to a 31% success rate. Backing this combo over these distances would have yielded a BSP profit of over 15p in the £. This theory, which initially had plenty of logic to it, now has some evidence to give it 'real world' credibility.

My final word on this distance section is simply that Moore may just judge the pace of these 1m1f-1m3f races better than any other distance. That may also have some validity.

Ryan Moore: Record by Course

I am now going to look at all courses where Moore has had at least 75 rides in the eight year sample period. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

As one might expect, achieving blind profits at individual courses is unlikely, but Moore has snuck into SP profit at Chelmsford and Sandown. Using BSP actually does not change things too much with only Naas additionally edging into profit and Lingfield hitting break even.

Moore's record at Goodwood offers up some interesting stats when we compare his data on favourites with other market ranks:

 

 

The ‘not favourite’ stats include plenty of runners that were near the head of the market – combining second and third favourites produced just 6 winners from 73! Goodwood obviously hosts highly competitive racing so we do have to factor that in when noting poor or modest looking results. But perhaps a crucial note is that Aidan O'Brien doesn't really target the Glorious Goodwood festival like he does other meetings. Indeed, of the 16 tracks where O'Brien has saddled 20+ runners in the months of July and August, Goodwood has the lowest each way strike rate of all. Moore rode 55 of APOB's 80 such runners during the study period.

Considering Grade 1 UK courses more broadly, punters need to be cautious when focusing strongly on one particular jockey. For example, I think the following table is quite an eye opener. It compares Moore riding favourites at Grade 1 UK tracks with favourites at  non-Grade 1 UK tracks. The Grade 1 UK tracks are Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown and York:

 

 

It should be noted that the average price of the favourites at the UK Grade 1 tracks was higher, which will have a bearing on the strike rate, but even taking that into account the numbers are still poles apart. I did check horses priced 2/1 or shorter across both types of track and the non-Grade 1 UK courses secured an 11% better strike rate then as well and much better returns of an extra 19p in the £. I rarely back favourites myself, but if there are favourite backers out there, bear those stats in mind if looking to back a Moore 'jolly'.

Before moving away from courses, the stats from these five courses where Moore did not ride at least 75 runners are actually worth sharing:

 

 

The sample sizes are not that small and the two stand out stats are the PRB figures for Wolves (0.84) and Navan (0.80) – these are exceptionally high.

Ryan Moore: Record by Trainer

Here are the trainers that Moore has ridden for at least 50 times (ordered by strike rate) – there are 11 in total:

 

  * includes prior trainer entities at the same establishment

 

Moore has a very good record when riding for the Charlton stable, especially with horses from the top three in the betting – with these runners his figures read 21 wins from 54 (SR 38.9%) for an SP profit of £34.03 (ROI +63.0%). William Haggas and Charlie Hills are also trainers that Moore has done well for and, as a general rule, when the jockey teams up with either of these trainers I would look at it as a positive.

As expected Aidan O'Brien and Sir Michael Stoute provide Moore with the vast majority of his rides, with O'Brien offering better stats in that particular battle.

We saw earlier that the overall Ireland versus UK stats differed markedly for Moore. It makes sense therefore to compare Moore’s record with O'Brien when riding in the UK compared with Ireland. The graph below plots the relative win and win/placed (each way) strike rates:

 

 

We can see a much stronger set of results for Irish races in terms of wins and places. This was to be expected, with there being a heavy selection bias when Moore catches a plane to ride, but it is still nice to see that confirmed. Losses to level stakes correlated with the strike rates meaning they were much steeper in the UK than in Ireland for this jockey trainer combination - 16.5% in the UK, 5.8% in Ireland. This equates to a difference of nearly 11 pence in the £.

Ryan Moore: Record by Run Style

Onto run style now. Here is a breakdown of Moore’s run style in terms of percentage of runners that match each of the four styles measured on geegeez.co.uk:

 

 

These figures are very similar to those you would find if you averaged out all the jockeys in the weighing room. Ryan has raced from the front on 14% of his rides which equates to roughly one in every seven. However, there is a big difference if we compare the percentage of Moore front runners in handicaps to non-handicaps. In handicaps he has taken the early lead in just 9.7% of races, in non-handicaps the figure is 16.7%.

In sprint handicaps (5-6f) Moore has led early just 20 times in 264 races, which equates to just 7.6% of the time. This stat does baffle me. As regular readers will know, front runners in sprint handicaps generally have a huge edge. Moore clearly does not think like this – if he did that figure would be much much higher.

Moore follows the usual trend of jockeys where his front runners win more often than his prominent racers who in turn out-perform mid div and those held up early. I always look at favourite run style data, too, as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding 'good horses at the front, bad ones at the back'. Here are the relative win strike rates for Moore-ridden favourites in terms of the four main run styles:

 

 

Over half of his front-running favourites went onto win. It should come as no surprise therefore that one would have made a healthy profit on Moore-ridden front-running favourites, while significant losses were incurred on favourites that were held up or raced midfield early. Moore on Aidan O'Brien-trained front-running favourites have an astonishing record: 60 wins from 94 runners (SR 63.8%). If your crystal ball had predicted these runners pre-race, you would been able to secure a huge profit of £52.36 (ROI +55.7%).

Ryan "More": Extra stats and nuggets

With the main body of the article complete allow me to share a few extra statistics that may be of interest:

  1. When riding a horse making its debut in the UK, Moore has won 44 times from 333 runs (SR 13.2%) for significant losses of £143.36 (ROI -43.1%). Even when these debutants have started favourite such runners made losses of around 29p in the £. Compare this to Irish debutants who have won over 25% of the time (23 wins from 90). This is another example of the O'Brien factor.
  2. Keep an eye on horses that are having their second career start where Moore was also on board for their debut. This cohort has produced 39 winners from 111 (SR 35.1%) for a small SP profit of £3.27 (ROI +3.0%). To BSP this improves to +£18.73 (ROI +16.9%).
  3. Moore has a better strike rate at Royal Ascot compared with all other Ascot meetings combined. At Royal Ascot his strike rate is 18.6%; all other Ascot meetings combined this figure is just 12.7%. At Royal Ascot (2015-2022) backing Moore blind would have yielded a BSP profit of £44.91 (ROI +18.2%).

Ryan Moore Main Takeaways

  1. Moore has a much higher strike rate in Ireland than in the UK (the O'Brien factor).
  2. Moore's form is heavily influenced by the form of the Aidan O'Brien stable, especially when racing over the Irish Sea.
  3. Moore has excelled at middle distances of 1m1f to 1m3f for all trainers, but especially so for O'Brien.
  4. At Grade 1 UK tracks it is difficult to find value when Moore is riding.
  5. Away from Grade 1 UK tracks Moore has made a small profit on all rides sent off favourite.
  6. He has an excellent record at both Navan and Wolverhampton (samples are modest but the PRB figures are insane).
  7. He has a very good record when riding for the Charlton stable, especially if they are in the top three of the betting. Charles Hills and William Haggas are trainers for whom he has solid records also.
  8. Moore has an outstanding record on front runners that start favourite. This is especially true if trained by O'Brien.
  9. The three extra nuggets shared immediately above.

*

So that wraps up my Ryan Moore profile. There is clearly no doubting Moore's qualities as a jockey – from a personal point of view, I just wish he would race close to or up with pace more often, especially in races of a mile or less. Given his superstar profile it is difficult but, as I hope you've discovered, not impossible to squeeze some juice out of Ryan Moore's value lemon.

Until next time...

- DR

Monday Musings: The Derby’s Record-Breaking Connections

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For the past three years, observers of the British Turf have been all agog awaiting the equalling of the best-known of all Classic records – the late Lester Piggott’s nine Derby wins as a jockey, writes Tony Stafford.

He was kept in suspended animation as Aidan O’Brien was poised on eight as a trainer when outsider Serpentine collected in 2020, just 19 years after Galileo gave him the first victory. When Piggott died on May 29 last year, the record, to his still very active mind, remained intact.

Well, it isn’t any longer and, while Saturday’s extraordinary victory by winter favourite but 2000 Guineas flop Auguste Rodin has prompted the record-compilers to regard Aidan as the joint record-holder, two men actually share the honours with ten.

The first Derby was won by Diomed in 1780. His owner, Sir Charles Bunbury, famously the man who lost the toss with the then Earl of Derby to have the destined-to-be great race named after him, won it again 33 years later.

Others in between enjoyed a quicker repeat win, and sometimes as the decades and centuries wore on, with more than two. Among its winners were kings, princes, noblemen of all levels and Prime Ministers, mostly past. Never would any of those great gentlemen of the realm have considered that a young man born and bred in East Ham, East London would – with his partner – eclipse them all, and within a remarkable 22-year span. Aidan does have nine, but in between, Pour Moi, trained by Andre Fabre, makes ten.

When the first Coolmore triumvirate, instigated more than half a century ago, and founded on Robert Sangster’s Vernon’s Pools money, Vincent O’Brien’s training brilliance, and Vincent’s son-in-law John Magnier’s all-round knowledge of horses and business acumen, was beginning to wane – Royal Academy’s 1990 Breeders’ Cup Mile win under Lester was the final positive - it fell on Magnier to take charge.

Robert had the expense of Manton to take precedence; Vincent was about to retire and son David, who won the Derby with Secreto six years earlier when El Gran Senor was supposed to win for the team – he got the show back on the road in Secreto’s absence at The Curragh, was out of love with training and went to be a wine grower in Europe.

With Vincent leaving, it needed somebody special to take his place at Ballydoyle. Many were surprised at Magnier’s selection, which fell on a young man who had only recently taken out a licence.

A former amateur rider with Jim Bolger, Aidan O’Brien (no relation to Vincent) had joined his wife Anne-Marie (nee Crowley) in her training base where she had followed her father Joe and instantly become champion jumps trainer in Ireland.

Still in her early 20’s, she promptly retired to have their first child Joseph, and Aidan took up the reins, following her as champion over jumps and attracting Magnier’s shrewd notice. Aidan had started with Bolger when Tony McCoy was a young apprentice and Willie Mullins was also in the team.

Even earlier, at least 45 years ago when he was based in White’s Gate, Phoenix Park, Bolger told me that his ambition was to train a stable entirely of his own home-bred horses. How remarkable that he has pretty much achieved that aim and at the same time has been responsible for putting the three most influential individuals (himself and Magnier apart) in UK and Irish racing – the best flat trainer, the outstanding jumps trainer, and the best jump jockey of all time – on the righteous, unwavering path.

Bolger’s wish came so close to happening over the years, brought closer when he sent out homebred Teofilo, then acquired at auction New Approach, both unbeaten champion two-year-old winners of the Dewhurst from the early crops of Galileo, the latter winning the Derby in 2008. These two came at the start of a remarkable spell of five wins in six years. O’Brien has a total of eight, six coming from the next nine years.

It was only the astounding prices commanded that compelled the former accountant to swerve (slightly) from that ambition and accommodate Sheikh Mohammed’s interest. It has ensured that his family’s Redmondstown stud in his home Co Wexford, run by granddaughter Clare Manning (daughter of Una and Kevin Manning) has the resources to continue to thrive.

If identifying the training talent was important to John Magnier, it was even more fundamental to ensure a stream of investment to maintain and, as it proved, improve on what had gone before. Michael Tabor was already owning horses with Neville Callaghan, enjoying big-race success with the likes of Danehill Dancer and Danetime, both sons of Danehill.

Danehill Dancer eventually became a successful stallion at Coolmore and was a great producer and broodmare sire.  Meanwhile Tabor was minded to invest with the great US handler and former college basketball coach, D Wayne Lukas, king of the Breeders’ Cup. They promptly won the 1995 Kentucky Derby with Thunder Gulch.

I remember a call the following morning from his then close associate Victor Chandler saying: “Unbelievable. It could only have happened to Michael.” Previously one of the leading figures in racecourse betting activity, and about to cash in his off-course Arthur Prince betting shop empire, this was success right out of left field.

As with all successful men, he didn’t marvel at it, unbelievable as it clearly was to those who knew him best, but he made it a starting point, and while finding his ally in racing with Magnier and Coolmore, his business interests also burgeoned.

His greatest pride is in his family. Son Ashley Tabor-King is founder and boss of the massive and ever-expanding Global broadcasting company which has an on-going programme of projects aimed at giving a helping hand to young people, many from under-privileged backgrounds.

Meanwhile, within the Coolmore family, it wasn’t long before the dividends started. Michael timed his membership with the first Derby success for the trainer and for Galileo, by Sadler’s Wells, son of Northern Dancer, the stallion John Magnier and O’Brien senior convinced Robert Sangster that they had to invest in from US auctions if they wanted to compete on the world stage. Nijinsky and Sadler’s Wells were among the first.

Two equine generations on, recently deceased Galileo is having a similar overwhelming influence on the breed. His son Frankel has developed into the leading stallion for providing Classic horses although, as ever, breeding needs to outcross, and Auguste Rodin is the product of the fantastic multiple Group 1 mare Rhododendron (Galileo – Pivotal mare cross) by the multiple Japanese champion, Deep Impact. Now the Tabor ownership figure stands after Saturday at a mind-boggling ten – from just 23 renewals of the great race.

All through that time, the measured way Michael, John and their long-term associate Derrick Smith – in for the last eight – have modestly taken the success – and respected the unique nature of a race founded 243 years ago and which is yet to have been stopped by Wars, Covid and even would-be horse-racing-ending Animal Rising protesters.

Rightly, the Derby Roll of Honour is a short-cut to an understanding of the history of the sport from its days when a few dozen rich men matched their charges against each other up to the business where massive pots of country wealth have been grafted, with the aim of making their rulers pre-eminent in the annals of turf.

The winner of the Derby is a unique beast. He needs the speed to stay in touch with the pace and again to settle any lingering doubts as they go for home. He requires the adaptability to cope with the bends, cambers, rises and descents over these 12 furlongs of historic Surrey downland, and the resolution and temperament to handle the extraneous demands of a massive crowd that challenges their still only part-developed strength and character.

Derby horses are far from the finished article, but the race has proven to be the perfect test over time. Aidan O’Brien knows what’s needed so, while everyone was cogitating as to whether he was crazy or not after the unexpected flop of Auguste Rodin in the 2000 Guineas, the trainer himself was adamant that he was special; and his word is his bond for Messrs Magnier, Tabor, Smith, their sons and the other members of the ownership team such as Westerberg, the racing operation of auto magnate, Georg von Opel.

I had a fabulous trip with Harry Taylor and Alan Newman to Ballydoyle/Coolmore, I think four years ago now, met Galileo at Coolmore and had a nice look at the O’Brien team on the gallops. The lot we saw – second I think – consisted of 70 and all the jockeys, which included Adrian Maguire and Dean Gallagher to name but two – were instantly identified by name by the trainer.

Likewise, the horses. Afterwards in a quiet moment, I asked Aidan if he ever betted. Now excuse me if I have the number wrong but I’m pretty sure what he said was: “I did at one time when I was with Jim Bolger. My first 15 bets all won. The next one lost and I’ve never had another one since!”

I truly believe no other trainer would have dared run the horse that finished so far back at Newmarket, and Roger Varian for one is wishing he didn’t. Roger was described as looking “gutted” when visiting the boys in the box on Saturday; no wonder, for otherwise his King Of Steel, a 66/1 half-length runner-up on stable and seasonal debut, would have been a near five-length Derby hero.

Varian, who won the St Leger for Derrick Smith’s son Paul with Kingston Hill, is sure to gain further attention for, like O’Brien, he was fulsome in the constant encouragement of his colt’s chances, despite the massive odds.

Aidan might not be a betting man nowadays. The three main Coolmore owners certainly have been. In each case, though, they have transcended their earlier status to the extent that, thanks to Aidan O’Brien, their place in the fabric of the English Turf will be forever as the most important players in the history of the Derby. Nothing more, nothing less!

  • TS

Monday Musings: Aidan

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When Aidan O’Brien turned up at Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas three weekends ago, hopes were high in the Ballydoyle team that the stable would be collecting a tenth success in the first Classic of the year, writes Tony Stafford.

He had the favourite – the Vertem (ahem) Futurity winner, Auguste Rodin – of which nothing short of a comfortable victory was being entertained, as well as last year’s European Champion juvenile - by a massive 5lb margin - in Little Big Bear.

The former wound up finishing last of the 14 runners behind Chaldean, Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman, with Auguste Rodin 12th, both colts more than 20 lengths behind the Frankie Dettori-ridden winner.

Aidan declared it a non-event for his two colts, citing early scrimmaging involving them both and Royal Scotsman. He maintained the firm Derby objective for Auguste – the race that was envisaged as the second leg of his ambitious Triple Crown attempt - while announcing Little Big Bear would lick his wounds and go sprinting.

So, what of the Irish 2,000 this weekend just gone? Little Big Bear did indeed go sprinting and, with Ryan Moore busily employed for three days at the Curragh from Friday to yesterday, the peripatetic Signor Dettori eagerly offered his services.

If Frankie is one p- word, Aidan and the Coolmore boys are another – pragmatic in the extreme. In the six-furlong Group 2 Sandy Hill over six furlongs at Haydock Park, last year’s champion two-year-old was ranged among others against the 114-rated Bradsell, super-fast Royal Ascot winner for Archie Watson.

For a few strides coming into the last 300 yards, Bradsell briefly suggested a tussle might be forthcoming, but once Little Big Bear got Frankie’s serious message through the reins, the result was stark. Bradsell didn’t just go under, he collapsed. The easy way is to say he didn’t stay – although probably he didn’t and the move back to five furlongs is sensible - but the truth is, he was humiliated by his rival.

As striking as was this powerful son of No Nay Never’s acceleration, the determined way runner-up Shouldhavebeenaring from the Richard Hannon stable managed to hold the deficit at one and a half lengths, was almost as impressive. He had drawn eight lengths clear of Bradsell at the line.

Now the Commonwealth Cup/ July Cup summer double must be Little Big Bear’s programme, and I’m sure Aidan and the boys, not to mention Ryan who will have been licking his lips in anticipation, will have a wary eye on the Hannon dark horse in both.

Of course, this coming weekend there are bigger fish to fry in the Derby for the other member of the Guineas non-eventers. So, what did Aidan contrive to restore stable honour faced with the 2-3 from Newmarket in Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman, representing Kevin Ryan and Paul and Oliver Cole respectively?

It probably didn’t take too much scrutiny among the 50 Classically bred colts in the Ballydoyle stables (*source Horses in Training 2023) to identify the next star cab off the rank. Step forward Paddington, actually and bizarrely not listed in the HIT team, a winner second time out last autumn by five lengths in a maiden.

For his return right at the start of the new season in March, Aidan chose a handicap at Naas in which the Irish assessor had obligingly allotted a mark of 97 for the 20-runner Curragh romp the previous September.

Next came a Listed race, won by a length and a half from stable-companion Drumroll over the course and distance of Saturday’s Classic. Drumroll finished second past the post again in yesterday’s Gallinule Stakes (Group 3) but having been bumped a couple of times by the original winner, was awarded the race.

O’Brien found two additional candidates for the colts’ Classic. First was Age Of Kings, a Kingman colt who had been some way behind Bradsell in last year’s Coventry Stakes, but later Group placed in Ireland, before off the track for almost a year. He beat one home.

More intriguing was Cairo, a son of US sire Quality Road and as such regarded as suitable to challenge for the UAE Derby on dirt on Dubai World Cup night.

This presumably was to have been the prelude to a tilt at the Kentucky Derby. He started favourite at Meydan but faded away to 10th of 13 and any US challenge never materialised.

Instead, he turned up on Saturday as back up to Paddington and in typical Aidan O’Brien style ran on to complete the exacta, just ahead of Hi Royal, who had a spirited set-to with the winner until cracking in the last 100 yards.

In a welcome return to the big time, veteran handler Paul Cole, now with training duties and recognition shared with son Oliver, has a horse of real ability. Royal Scotsman had extricated himself from the early muddle with the two Coolmore stars at HQ to stay on for a very good third.

As Hi Royal had been rated only 92 as he entered the stalls in the 2000 Guineas (115 after), starting at 125/1, Royal Scotsman was expected to reverse the Newmarket form, and was the 6/4 favourite on the Curragh, but he was never in contention under Jamie Spencer and finished a disappointing ninth.

Now Paddington surely will be the number one from O’Brien to challenge Chaldean in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when Brian Meehan’s French 2000 narrow runner-up Isaac Shelby could also be in the line-up.

The Coolmore partners clearly have a high regard for Siyouni, sire of Paddington and two of their highest-profile young stallions in Sotsass and St Mark’s Basilica. Paddington has elbowed his way into the top table of three-year-old colts from last year’s European Free Handicap.

Of the five top rated colts and one filly last year, four of the colts including the “scrimmaging trio” as well as the winner Chaldean, were all on show on the first Saturday in May. The exception was Blackbeard, retired to stud after a busy campaign in the top juvenile races over six furlongs, for Group 1 wins in the Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes for Coolmore.

The filly in question was of course the narrowly beaten 1000 Guineas favourite Tahiyra, just outlasted by Godolphin’s Mawj with the rest well beaten off. Dermot Weld said before Newmarket that he wished he had two more weeks with her after she had been held up by the wet spring.

Now with the required extra time, she was fully primed for her home 1000 Guineas, and was the overwhelming favourite. The Newmarket race had proved a disappointment for the O’Brien team, with Meditate not matching last year’s form, but she was back in full cry yesterday, Ryan Moore always having her well placed. They went for home in the straight, but Tahiyra and Chris Hayes always had her in their sights and the Weld filly won comfortably.

Jim Bolger has yet another potential star on his hands in the Vocalised filly Comhra, a 150/1 shot after two unplaced runs in Group 3 trials this spring, but a closing third here. In another two strides she would have been second and so fast did she finish, I doubt Bolger will have any fear of taking on the first two at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes.

Two home wins, including the 2000 and one Group 2 race at Haydock, made for a great Saturday. Four wins yesterday, all with Ryan in the saddle, made for a veritable feast, highlighted by Luxembourg’s tremendous performance in holding off Sir Michael Stoute’s top-class Bay Bridge in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, a second Group 1 of the weekend. Favourite here was last year’s French 2000 and Prix du Jockey Club winner Vadeni, 11/8 with a previous run behind him, but he was a well-beaten fifth yesterday as the front two drew clear.

Vadeni had been a close third to Luxembourg in last September’s Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown before running a wonderful second to Alpinista in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Luxembourg, clearly improving, promises many more successes. And if Auguste Rodin does win the Derby, a season which was initially viewed with trepidation by the Coolmore partners could develop into a vintage one, even by their and O’Brien’s standards.

One notable absentee on Derby Day – apart from me, owing to an unexpected domestic issue – is Sir Rupert Mackeson, yes, of the brewing family, but more significantly, the man who for many years has run the bookshop on Britain’s racecourses. He was a fixture at Epsom’s summer meeting and a couple of years ago, I spotted a lovely water colour on his stall which Derby winning owner Khalifa Dasmal (Shaamit) was delighted to acquire.

Rupert has struggled manfully with physical difficulties for many years, yet even approaching his 80’s he remains as mentally sharp as he ever was. I helped him on his stand at Ascot for a couple of days one September a few years back and very much enjoyed the experience, marvelling at his knowledge of his subject.

Over the years, he became very friendly with Lester Piggott, who regularly visited the Epsom pitch on Derby Day. Had he still been in his old Derby Day location, he had planned a Lester Piggott Oaks/Derby exhibition, with many items signed by the King of Epsom. This will now be located at Weston Super Frames, 17 Locking Road, Weston super-Mare BS23 3UY. I hope it goes well.

-TS

Monday Musings: The Thinker

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It took a fair amount of thought before Auguste Rodin was confirmed a runner for Saturday’s Vertem Futurity at Doncaster, writes Tony Stafford. I understand for much of the morning Michael Tabor was resigned to his and the rest of the Coolmore partners’ best 2023 Derby candidate missing the race through the predicted heavy ground.

Fortunately, Ryan Moore was on the comfortable opening race winner, Totally Charming for the George Boughey stable, and with the positivity of a successful rider, his report to Aidan O’Brien reduced the potential worry of connections. No doubt the trainer’s own punctilious inspection of the nearside portion on his customary walking the course – largely unoccupied on the first day of the meeting – also figured importantly in the decision.

Wide courses like Doncaster often provoke differences of opinion and five of the eight jockeys preferred to stay on the far side. That left only three – two for Ballydoyle and the Frankie Dettori-ridden Gosden runner, the heavily-backed second favourite Epictetus, staying stands side, too.

What O’Brien clearly did not want was a slow-run tactical race and Wayne Lordan was deputed to set a solid pace on the rail on well-supported Salt Lake City, ahead of Epictetus and Auguste Rodin. David Probert, on Andrew Balding’s good Newbury winner Stormbuster, fulfilled a similar role on the other side.

As Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy came to the front on his side, Ryan appreciated he needed to make a move and the smooth way he came outside Dettori and eased clear, seemed to signal “race over”.

There was an element, not for the first time this racing season, redolent of the 2014 2,000 Guineas. Just as Night Of Thunder had crossed the entire Rowley Mile that May afternoon before beating John Gosden’s Kingman and O’Brien’s Australia, now Holloway Boy started to head towards the latest would-be Classic stars of the same two stables, from his position at the front of the other group.

Unfortunately, once he got across, Ryan was already off and gone while Epictetus, a son of Kingman, stayed on better than the Burke runner, who was still a decent third. There was also a Night Of Thunder aside, with his son Captain Wierzba finishing sixth for Ralph Beckett.

There can be few better maidens around, at least not one that has raced four times, as the Roger Teal colt, Dancing Magic. Fourth behind Keeneland bound Silver Knott and Epictetus in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, he filled the same place when heading up the remaining far side quartet.

We have got to the time in top level breeding and racing in Europe when the direct influence of the deceased Galileo is inevitably waning as his final crops come on stream. While he did have a representative here in Salt Lake City, it was as a broodmare sire that he intruded on the Group 1 race this time.

As the eleventh winner for Aidan O’Brien of the last British Group 1 of the year, beating Sir Henry Cecil’s ten, Auguste Rodin is by the late and equally (as Galileo) lamented Japanese multiple champion Deep Impact, sire of 2,000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior, out of Rhododendron.

It was something of a risk that few owner-breeding groups would be prepared to undertake to send a top-class Group 1 winning mare to Japan to be covered by a stallion so relatively late in his career.   Coolmore did and it was fortuitous as Deep Impact preceded his Irish counterpart by a year in his demise, Auguste Rodin coming from his final crop.

The need for outcrosses for the host of Galileo mares within the Coolmore orbit is a constant search. Rhododendron, of course, like her contemporary and regular adversary within the fold, Hydrangea, was bred to the famed Galileo on a Pivotal cross. Strangely, the two names also belong to my two favourite flowers!

I have a friend with a winning young daughter of Galileo (actually a filly – she won’t pass five until January when she expects her first foal) also from a winning Pivotal mare, who will be delighted how Rhododendron has clicked with a superstar first time up.

His mare has gone to Ten Sovereigns and if the yearlings by him on offer at the October Yearling Sales were anything to go by, he could soon be following the example of fellow Scat Daddy stallions No Nay Never, Caravaggio, US Navy Flag, Sioux Nation and, in the US, unbeaten Triple Crown hero Justify, by producing top runners.

My friend is the banker and businessman Bernard Kantor, the man behind the ten-year Derby sponsorship of Investec. That inevitably meant for him an annual early June encounter with the late Queen and almost as often with Messrs Magnier, Tabor, Smith and O’Brien among many others.

If Bernard is lucky enough to get a colt with his first product of Sans Pretention, a lightly raced staying filly with William Haggas, and resists the temptation to sell him, how he would love to get him into the race that was his annual preoccupation throughout each spring.

As a sire, Galileo often confounded conventional breeding theory when adding unexpected stamina to sprinting fillies off the track. Who is to say that Galileo mares might have a reverse influence, stretching out the distance capabilities of sprint sires like Middle Park and July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns? How the Coolmore boys would love that!

In a previous life, I happened upon the famous Auguste Rodin sculpture of The Thinker in the Rodin Museum in Paris. I just love that image of a naked man so deep in thought and oblivious to anything else. Like racehorse trainers, apart from the nakedness of course.

This probably happened only a year or so after the Arthur Stephenson steeplechaser of that name had won the Gold Cup after the day’s racing was delayed by a sudden snowfall and needed thawing out, and the next year finished third in the Grand National.

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We get used to Arab owners paying massive money for horses but this year one Dubai owner, who has had an increasing involvement in the sport, has shown when it comes to thinking about it he has the game sorted as much as anyone can.

I first met Ahmad Al Shaikh when he was a constant part of the Sheikh Mohammed entourage in, it must have been the late 1980’s or early 90’s. His role was the official in-house journalist providing domestic reports on the Maktoums’ racing achievements. He’s come a long way since then and has around 20 horses of his own in training now.

Owen Burrows described him as being a “big supporter of my stable” after Hello Deira won a Redcar handicap last month. Earlier in the summer I stood talking to him in the Epsom paddock before the Dash and he introduced me to his friend, saying: “This is Saeed Suhail, he owns the favourite.”

It was only after Desert Crown did indeed win the Derby for Sir Michael Stoute and Richard Kingscote that I realised he hadn’t mentioned his own Derby runner, Hoo Ya Mal, the Andrew Balding trained 150-1 shot who followed the winner home.

He needed to think quickly and within ten days he had parted company with his second cheaply-bought placed horse in the classic, for £1.2 million at the pre-Ascot sale in Kensington Palace Gardens, not bad for a £40k yearling. That was also the yearling purchase price of Khalifa Sat, his previous Derby runner-up with Balding, a 50-1 shot that followed O’Brien’s Serpentine home in 2020.

But on Saturday in France, Ahmad enjoyed his best day in 20 years of racehorse ownership when his colt Dubai Mile, trained by Charlie and Mark Johnston, won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over ten furlongs.

A few years ago, I sat in the dining room with some Johnston owners in Kingsley House, Middleham, feasting on the home-produced beef from their own herd. The same two Group 1 races were featured, and we watched them. I couldn’t help remembering that French Fifteen had won the other Group 1 on the corresponding day in 2011, over a mile.

Ahmad has only a day to collect his thoughts in much the same way he needed to back in early June. He says: “He is in the sale on Tuesday. We will enter him for the Breeders’ Cup on Monday <today> and if we get a good offer, I will sell him.”

So, either it will be another seven-figure return, this time on an even smaller investment of just 20 grand, or a date with Auguste Rodin. I think you can say, Ahmad will be on a winner either way.

Just to gauge how shrewd is this one-time journalist, armed with the proceeds of that big midsummer profit on Hoo Ya Mal, a Book 1 Tattersalls purchase, he was again in action two weeks ago. I’ve looked down the list of all nine days and the 2097 lots (less withdrawals) and encountered the name Ahmad Al Shaikh only once.

That’s not to say he didn’t enlist any of his trainers or associates to act on his behalf in an attempt at sales obfuscation. He doesn’t seem that type to me, though. Book 1 averaged almost 300 grand per yearling: Ahmad bought Lot 164 on the first day, a colt by Almanzor, winner of the French Derby, Champion Stakes and Irish Champion, for just 50,000gns. He buys to try to get a Derby winner. Watch out Aidan, this Thinker and his bargain buys may be coming after you, if not next year, maybe in 2024.

- TS