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Sat TV Trends: 17th Oct 2020

It’s Qipco Champions Day at Ascot this SaturdayAs normal Andy Newton’s covered all the LIVE ITV races from a trends & stats angle.

Use these key trends to help narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

 

1.20 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV

15/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Won at Listed or better class previously
15/18 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
13/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
13/18 – Favourites placed
13/18 – Won at least 5 times previously
12/18 – Aged 5 or older
12/18 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
11/18 – Raced at least 5 times that season
8/18 – Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
8/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
8/18 – Won their latest race
6/18 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 10)
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 5)
2/18 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 5)
Stradivarius won the race in 2018 and was second in 2019
Since 2011: 6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 4 of the last 8
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

1.55 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Won over 6f previously
17/18 – Won at least 3 times previously
15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
16/18 –  Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/18 – Raced at least 4 times that season
15/18 – Won at Listed or better class previously
13/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/18 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
13/18 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
13/18 – Won a Group race previously
11/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Raced at Haydock (6), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
4/18 – Won their latest race
4/18 – Favourites that won
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan (2 of the last 5)
The Tin Man (13/2) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 4 of the last 9 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 5 of the last 9 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 5 of the last 9 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 9 runnings

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The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

 

2.30 - Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

12/12 – Raced 3 or more times that season
11/12 – Won at Listed or better class previously
10/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
10/12 – Won at least 3 times previously
10/12 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
9/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/12 – Won over 1m4f previously
9/12 – Rated 110 or higher
8/12 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
8/12 – Favourites placed
8/12 – Aged 3 years-old
6/12 – Won their last race
4/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/12 – Favourites that won
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/12 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/12 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 4 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Magical (5/1) won the race in 2018
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 2

Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket

 

3.05 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

18/18 – Raced at least 3 times that season
16/18 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
16/18 – Finished in the top three in their last race
16/18 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
16/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
15/18 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
14/18 – Favourites placed
14/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/18 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
10/18 – Won their latest race
9/18 – Won at least 7 times previously
8/18 – Favourites that won
7/18 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Trained by Freddie Head
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 9 runnings

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

 

3.40 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV

18/18 – Won at least 4 times previously
17/18 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
17/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
16/18 – Won over 1m2f previously
16/18 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
14/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/18 – Raced 5 or more times that season
10/18 – Won their last race
8/18 – Raced at either Longchamp (5) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/18 – Favourites unplaced
6/18 – Returned a double-figure price
6/18 – Favourites
4/18 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/18 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 3)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of last 3)
Magical (Evs fav) won the race in 2019
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has just 1 win in the race (Magical, 2019)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 7 runnings

 

4.15 - Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/6 - Winners drawn 10 or lower
5/6 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-6 in weight
5/6 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 -  Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/6 - Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
2/6 – Trained by David O’Meara
1/6 - Winning favourite
Escobar (16/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/1
Trainers Roger Varian, David O’Meara (2), Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 3 of the last 6 runnings

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 8th Aug 2020

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Ascot, Haydock and Newmarket to take in seven races across the three venues.

We’ve four competitive handicaps at Ascot, while at Haydock the Group Three Lancaster Stakes is their feature. Then we’ve also one LIVE race at Newmarket’s July course – the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

1:50 - ITV Home Of Terrestial Racing Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

 

No previous runnings
Trainer David Simcock is only 3 from 59 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is only 3 from 85 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Hugo Palmer is 0 from 17 (0%) with this 4+ year-olds at the track

 

2:25 - Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker is only 1 from 30 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor is only 1 from 35 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 5 from 127 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3:00 - Thames Hospice Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe is 0 from 15 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

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3:35 - Virginia Water Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock is only 3 from 59 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is only 1 from 40 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

2:05 - BetVictor British EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

 

9/9 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/9 – Won between 1-3 times
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Rated between 94-100
6/9 – Drawn between stalls 5-8
6/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/9 – Returned between 10/1 and 14/1
5/9 – Ran at Ascot or Newmarket last time out
3/9 – Trained by William Haggas
2/9 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/9 – Winning favourites
Miss O’Connor (11/10 fav) won the race in 2019

 

 

2:40 - BetVictor Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

 

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Officially rated 105 or higher
13/17 – Yet to run at Haydock
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Aged either 3 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or more
13/17 – Won a Listed or better class race before
13/17 – Won over 1m2f or further
13/17 – Raced 3 or more previous runs that season
11/17 – Officially rated between 105 and 110
12/17 – Won 3 or more times during their career
11/17 – Raced at either Newbury, York or Sandown last time out
10/17 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Finished unplaced in their last race
5/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/17 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute yard
Addeybb (11/10 fav) won the race in 2019

 

 

Newmarket (July) Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

3:20 - Betway Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4

 

16/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting market
15/17 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
14/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/17 – Won just once previously
12/17 – Had won over only 6f previously
10/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Raced at Newmarket (July) previously
9/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket (6) or Sandown (3) last time out
8/17 – Yet to win over 7f
8/17 –  Favourites that won
7/17 – Had just one previous run
5/17 – Won by Godolphin
3/17 – Trained by the Hills stable
West End Girl (11/2) won the race in 2019
3 winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
4 of the last 13 horses from stall 7 finished 1st (2) or 2nd (2)

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 11th July 2020

Plenty going on again this Saturday with a monster NINE LIVE ITV races to take in.

We’ve the final day of the Newmarket July Meeting, with the Group One Darly July Stakes, plus the Group Two Superlative Stakes and the competitive Bunbury Cup Handicap.

Then at Ascot, we’ve four more LIVE races to enjoy from the Berkshire track that include the Group Two Summer Mile.

As always, we’ve got all the races covered with key trends and stats – use these to find the best past profile of winning horses.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

 

1.50 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

16/18 – Had won over 7f or further previously
14/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/18 – Had 2 or more runs that season
10/18 – Unplaced in their last race
9/18 – Favourites unplaced
8/18 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
3/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Winning Favourites
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The Richard Hannon yard has won 3 of the last 7
Motakhayyel (5/1) won the race in 2019

2.25 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f ITV

10/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
7/10  - Had won over at least 7f before
7/10 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/10 – Placed favourites
4/10 – Drawn in stalls 10 or 13 (2 each)
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/10 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

3.00 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

17/18 – Won over at least 6f previously
16/18 – Placed in their last race
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
13/18 – Won their latest race
12/18 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
12/18 – Won by either a March or April foal
9/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
8/18 – Favourites unplaced
6/18 – Winning Favourites
4/18 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/18 – Winners from stall 3
5/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 7 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
Mystery Power (7/1) won the race in 2019

3.35 - Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

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Recent July Cup Winners.....

2019     Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018     U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017     Harry Angel (9/2)
2016     Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011      Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010      Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009      Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008      Marchand d'Or (5/2 fav)
2007      Sakhee's Secret                (9/2)
2006      Les Arcs (10/1)
2005      Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004      Frizzante (14/1)
2003      Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002      Continent (12/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

17/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Had won over 6f before
15/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
14/18 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
13/18 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
10/18 – Placed last time out
9/18 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained the last 2 winners)
2/18 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/18 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019)

 

4.10 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

17/18 – Won over 7f previously
17/18 – Raced 3 or more times that season
14/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/18 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
11/18 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
9/18 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
9/18 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
8/18 – Placed in their last race
4/18 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Vale Of Kent (13/2) won the race in 2019

 

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

 

2.05 – Betfred “Ascot Official Bookmaker* Fillies Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Won over at least 7f before
7/7 – Never ran at the course before
7/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
7/7 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/7 – Aged 3 years-old
6/7 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
6/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
5/7 – Favourites placed
3/7 – Trained by William Haggas
3/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1

2.40 – ‘Play Nifty Fifty Exclusively At Betfred’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV

7/7 – Drawn in between stalls 3-7 (inc)
7/7 – Didn’t win last time out
7/7 – Won between 0-3 times
7/7 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Favourites placed in the first two
5/7 – Drawn in stalls 4 or 6
5/7 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
5/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/7 – Had run at Ascot before
2/7 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/7 – Godolphin-owned
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 15/2

 

3.15 – Betfred Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV

13/13 Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
11/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Had raced at Ascot before (2 won)
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
8/13 – Previous Group race winner
8/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/13 – Aged 4 years-old
5/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Had won a Group 1 before
10 of the last 11 winners were draw in stalls 5 or lower
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has won the last 2 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

 

3.50 – Betfred Heritage Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV

Just 7 previous running
7/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had won between 2-6 times
6/7 – Had won over 5f before
6/7 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
6/7 – Carried 8-10 or more
6/7 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
4/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/7 – Came from a double-figure stall
3/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1

 

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