Tag Archive for: Betfair Chase

Monday Musings: It’s Hard to Wait

/in /by

When you happen to be 78 years of age and own a racehorse that not only is the best you’ve ever had but also could be a future steeplechase champion, it’s hard not to be impatient, writes Tony Stafford. It must have been excruciating for Harry Redknapp to have to wait 331 days for his hitherto unbeaten young chaser The Jukebox Man to make his reappearance over the weekend after injury kept him away from last March’s big spring festivals.

The year before, The Jukebox Man and his trainer Ben Pauling had tried valiantly to keep the Irish at bay with second places at both Cheltenham and Aintree. He got to within a head of the Gordon Elliott-trained Stellar Story – no relation Wilf! – at Cheltenham, then was five and a half lengths behind Mullins’ Dancing City at Aintree, but more than seven lengths ahead of third-placed Cherie D’Am for Dan Skelton.

The two novice chases he contested last winter were comfortably annexed. First, he dropped to 2m4f for a Grade 2 at Newbury and beat Alan King’s Masaccio a couple of lengths before winning Kempton’s big Christmas novice chase, the three-mile Kauto Star with another similarly controlled performance.

So now it was Haydock and an Intermediate Chase over an intermediate distance of 2m5.5f, but that track takes plenty of stamina and jumping prowess. Again, the margin was modest, once more a couple of lengths, but Ben Jones always had everything under control and the Greenall/Guerrerio-trained and J P McManus-owned Iroko is no ordinary horse to brush aside.

His last run before Saturday was a few miles west along the East Lancs Road at Aintree where he started as the 13/2 favourite for the Grand National and finished a creditable fourth. Iroko predictably kept galloping all the way to the line under Jonjo junior’s urgings on Saturday but never looked like getting to the winner.

The King George, which would be a Boxing Day return to Kempton for Harry’s horse, is the hope but as a former much-respected manager of Tottenham Hotspur and other football clubs, he knows well that injuries to man or horse can happen at any time.

He was talking with friends about his increased involvement in racing on Champions Day at Ascot last month. And it was clear that it was fingers crossed that nothing would go wrong before Haydock. It didn’t, and now there’s no doubt this Poplar-born phenomenon has no wish to slow down, kept solid by his 58-year marriage to Sandra.

There must be something about a working-class upbringing in that part of East London that instils permanency. <I started life a few miles north of there at Hackney Wick in the early days after World War 2>. My mate Harry Taylor beat me by a few months, half a mile away and he celebrated an 80th birthday bash with friends and his lovely family on Saturday afternoon.

Organised as ever, I’d lost the original invitation but checked with him on Saturday morning. “Yes, it’s Northwick Park Golf Course.” Rain made the journey tortuous but once I got to the place, near Harrow in West London, my phone’s Maps feature sent me to a golf venue of sorts. I went inside, asked at reception where was the party and I was directed to a room hosting an Indian wedding! The food smelled great, but I thought I’d better persevere.

Harry had me going around in circles up and down the roads around the massive Northwick Park Hospital, once saying “I know where you are!” and I was just about to give best when his grandson Connor called on Harry’s phone. “It’s at a different golf club, near where we live in Harpenden <that’s Hertfordshire!>. You should make it in an hour!” I did and loved the Englebert Humperdinck tribute guy. If only school mate Tony Peters (my exact birth twin, formerly known as Zahl) had been there; he’s been doing unwitting tributes to the singer for years!

A much more venerable son of that part of East London is 92-year-old Bill Gredley, who while still very active with flat-racing home-bred horses from his well-established operation at Stetchworth Park Stud in Newmarket, has also developed a formidable jumps team. Almost everything nowadays is in training with James Owen. Tim Gredley, Bill’s son, after a spell riding as he modestly says, “Rolls Royces in point-to-points, I didn’t need to be much good!” is back with his first love and is hoping to get into the Great Britain show-jumping team for the next Olympics.

A much better-known veteran of show jumping obviously has a major connection with the foremost UK jumps training operation. Nick Skelton, for decades one of the best show jumping riders in the world and winner of a gold medal at the London Olympics in 2012, was at the time finalising plans for his sons’ burgeoning enterprise in Warwickshire.

That has become extremely powerful and their Grey Dawning, the impressive winner of Haydock’s Betfair Gold Cup an hour or so after The Jukebox Man’s romp, looks very over-priced to me at 16/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Day after day, illustrations of the skills of three recent champion jockeys, in order Harry Skelton, Harry Cobden and the latest Sean Bowen are offered to an admiring public. All three can be devastating, especially when riding waiting races, to the extent they often don’t get involved in their winning races until many in the stands have probably already given up. Grey Dawning on Saturday just breezed up (to coin a cliché) to last year’s winner Royale Pagaille, drew alongside and then won with a fair amount in hand. How much, you’d have to ask Harry?

This performance will have added to the Redknapp/Pauling team’s confidence in The Jukebox Man as runner-up Iroko had been second to the Skelton horse in his pre-National warm-up at Kelso last March.

Royale Pagaille also took plenty of beating as a horse with four Haydock wins. Before you say that surely as an 11-year-old his powers might be fading, that’s not to understand Venetia Williams’ training, especially of her experienced chasers.

In Horses In Training 2025, her 79-strong stable had 18 horses aged ten or older and another 22 age eight or nine. Don’t be shocked if the softer ground we’re getting heralds a characteristic midwinter bonanza for the Hereford handler.

Talking of venerable phenomena, Willie Mullins, having been putting his feet up over in Ireland after his killer pounce on the Breeders’ Cup, eased back into action with a nice little Euro 88k for the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown.

It wasn’t that surprising an outcome. Lossiemouth, in making it eight Grade 1 wins in her career, started 5/1 on for the four-horse affair. The one surprise was that the nine-length runner-up, collecting €28k was not the second favourite and Mullins second string Irancy in the McManus colours, but Glen Kiln, a 28/1 shot trained by David Harry Kelly. Some turn for him!

Lossiemouth is around 3/1 for the Champion Hurdle but we’re waiting to see what Nicky Henderson and Constitution Hill will have to say about that in Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle on Saturday.

Mullins also won the beginners’ chase on the Punchestown card with odds-on Kitzbuhel, running for the first time since he put eight grand into the Mullins coffers for his third place on the final day of the season at Sandown last April. The way Dan Skelton’s going, though, I doubt there will be as much in it at the finish this time around between the respective powerhouses of the UK and Ireland – or even that the result will be the same way around.

- TS

Monday Musings: An APT Comparison?

/in /by

Last March, as Rachael Blackmore urged her mount in the Cheltenham Gold Cup to close on stablemate Minella Indo and Jack Kennedy up the hill after the last fence, she would have been excused for saying: “A Plus Tard” or “see you later” in the English version, writes Tony Stafford.

The comment might have been Lostintraslation for some – the much-fancied horse of that name pulled up two from home that day – but after last weekend when both latter horses won major races, the path appears set for a march to greatness for the Henry De Bromhead seven-year-old.

Lostintranslation’s easy win in Ascot’s Chanelle Pharma Chase signalled another pointer to the revival in form of the Tizzard stable – soon by all accounts to have son Joe’s name rather than dad Colin’s above the stable entrance. That effort, though, could not compare with the Irish-trained horse’s performance in running away with the Betfair Chase at Haydock Park.

Most enjoyable for British racegoers as the Irish won this coveted Haydock autumn feature for the first time, was that A Plus Tard carries the colours of Cheveley Park Stud, the principal UK-owned breeder which every year produces top-class animals. With more than 100 mares and in excess of 110 in training every year, Flat racing is the bread and butter. Jumping is the winter release.

Under the careful management of Chris Richardson the stud has fuelled on the enthusiasm for jump racing of Patricia Thompson and her late husband David. The couple won the 1992 Grand National with last-minute buy Party Politics, trained by Nick Gaselee and ridden by Carl Llewellyn, and in recent years built up a select team of high-class jumpers in Ireland.

A class apart though is A Plus Tard and although only a seven-year-old he has just entered his fourth season as a steeplechaser, and still has only 12 races over fences (five wins, five seconds and two thirds) on his record.

Much of the talk before Saturday’s race surrounded the possibility that Bristol De Mai would equal the achievement of Kauto Star who won the Betfair four times in the first decade of the millennium with one unseated preventing an unblemished five-race record.

Bristol De Mai, trained for the last eight seasons by Nigel Twiston-Davies and, like Kauto Star, an early acquisition from France after precocious efforts over hurdles, has won three. Initially he beat in turn Gold Cup winners Cue Card and Native River. He was narrowly beaten in the race in 2019 to Lostintranslation before outstaying multiple Grade 1 winner Clan Des Obeaux last November.

As with those two multiple Betfair victors, A Plus Tard started in France. Whereas Kauto Star had already raced nine times (winning three) before his dramatic step up in form to win a four-year-old Graded hurdle at Auteuil when a 36-1 shot in late May, A Plus Tard never raced at that level. His moment came on his fifth and final start (and second win) when collecting a 40k to the winner 4yo handicap early in April 2018 there.

Like Kauto Star and Bristol De Mai before him A Plus Tard switched quickly to chasing, running as early as November of that year and finishing runner-up in a field of 13 at Gowran Park under Blackmore – the first of the 11 races in which they have combined.

Remarkably, three races on and less than four months after that initial association the now five-year-old ran away with the 20-runner Close Brothers Handicap Chase. The only horse of his age in the race, he did so giving weight and a 16-length thrashing to Grade 1 hurdle winner Tower Bridge with 18 other decent performers trailing far behind.

His next run brought defeat in third over three miles at Punchestown at the end of his busiest season with De Bromhead. He was restricted to only three races the next winter, sandwiching defeats on reappearance and when a close third behind Min in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham with a first Grade 1 triumph at Leopardstown over Christmas.

And last season was another cherry-picked campaign of just three races. Again Leopardstown provided the one win, another at Grade 1 level over Christmas but this time without Rachael who partnered instead Minella Indo, who fell before the race warmed up. Darragh O’Keeffe was the lucky man to step into her shoes. Back on A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup as chronicled at the start of the piece, second place to her stable-companion and other regular partner came as their rally up the hill was a little trop tard.

There is an uncanny symmetry about aspects of the early careers of Kauto Star and A Plus Tard. Both started in France and showed precocity. Certainly in the case of Kauto Star, he burned bright for many seasons. De Bromhead’s deliberate planning for his young improving star’s career offers hope that his will also be long-lasting

The Knockeen, County Waterford, trainer has run him sparingly and, with a horse of such talent, there is no need to go searching away beyond the top prizes. I would be surprised if he turned out more than four times, with Punchestown a possible after Cheltenham, especially if he wins the Gold Cup this time. Next will likely be the normal trip to Leopardstown for a Christmas hat-trick attempt.

Minella Indo, who comes from the parallel universe of Irish jumps talent, the point-to-point field, is the De Bromhead version of Paul Nicholls’ Denman. That great chaser was a contemporary of and in terms of merit almost exact counterpart of Kauto Star and he too came from the Irish pointing field.

Kauto Star was by 29 days the senior and in terms of their careers with Nicholls earned almost twice as much as his colleague and rival, collecting £2.2 million from 19 wins in 31 chases. Denman won 14 of 24 for £1.14 million

When Kauto Star won his first Betfair Chase as a six-year-old he was rated 173. Afterwards he even once touched as high as 190 but mostly was rated in his prime in the 180’s.

Although at seven a year older at the time of his first win in the race, A Plus Tard is rated 1lb lower at 172. It is worth reminding ourselves of the ease of his win, and on faster ground than is normal for the Betfair Chase.

Bristol De Mai and Royale Pagaille kept each other company for more than two-thirds of the race on Saturday before Royale Pagaille got the edge in that private battle, with A Plus Tard always tracking them going easily. He was sent to the front three out and, pulling away all the way home, the finishing margin of 22 lengths over Royal Pagaille could have been much greater had Rachael wished.

Remembering just how impressive Royal Pagaille (rated 163) had been in the Peter Marsh Chase over the same course and distance last January, it was salutary to see a similar disrespectful beating being handed out to him. The winner must be raised for the win although Kauto Star’s rating as he won successively his first Betfair, Tingle Creek (two miles) and the first of his five King Georges brought very little reaction from the handicapper.

There was definitely a hint of Kauto Star in the speed with which A Plus Tard disposed of his 2019 Close Brothers rivals at Cheltenham, and again as he cosied up to Royal Pagaille before asserting. This was an exceptional performance but there is still that stable-companion and last season’s Cheltenham defeat to avenge before we declare him the best of the bunch.

Rachael Blackmore also had to make a painful (at least it looked that way beforehand) choice between A Plus Tard and her 2021 Cheltenham Festival winner Bob Olinger when that horse also made his seasonal return at Gowran Park, again with Darragh O’Keeffe as the beneficiary.

Bob, the deeply-impressive unchallenged winner of last season’s Ballymore Novice Hurdle at the Festival, was appearing for the first time since and enjoyed a nice school round to defeat useful yardstick Bacardys (Willie Mullins). This was the champion trainer’s first try at assessing the likely threat to his own best novice chasers later in the season. It might have dented his optimism a bit, but he usually pulls one out of the hat!

One Saturday winner who will offer some hope of a domestic success at the Festival is the Nicky Henderson-trained but Hughie Morrison nurtured and developed grey, Buzz, who followed his Cesarewitch success with another dominant effort in the Coral (to you and me Ascot) Hurdle.

While there is an intermediate distance race for the top-class chasers (the Ryanair) at the Festival, two and a half mile hurdlers are forced to drop back to the minimum for the Champion Hurdle or stretch to three miles and a bit for the Stayers. Otherwise they can wait for Aintree which does cater for them.

I think the level Aintree circuit would be perfect to utilise Buzz’s Flat-race speed and he would be meeting horses partly used up trying either of the possible Cheltenham options. But then, who can resist the lure of Cheltenham? Certainly not, it seems, James Stafford and his Thurloe Thoroughbreds syndicate.

Buzz races for the partners but, with a portion of the proceeds of their victories going to the Royal Marsden, Buzz will always have a feel-good factor going for him.

Never mind additionally that James did casual shifts for me ages ago at The Daily Telegraph and thereafter always greets me on the country’s racecourses as “Uncle Tone”. I can think of worse forms of address – indeed I’ve received a few in my time!

- TS

Haydock Pace Bias Over Marathon Trips On Good Ground

/in , /by

Seven of the last nine renewals of the Betfair Chase have been run on ground that was at least soft and three of the last five years it has been heavy ground but a very dry spell this year means that we are likely to be racing on good ground on Saturday. This gives us a good opportunity to have a look at potential pace biases on better ground at Haydock.

Staying trips are the main focus at this meeting with three chases over 3m+ and also the Grade 3 Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle so these distances are where I will concentrate my efforts.

3m+ Chase Pace Bias At Haydock On Good Or Good To Soft Ground

Unfortunately we have a pretty small sample size here courtesy of the fact that Haydock rarely gets extended dry spells but the data we do have suggests that this is a relatively fair course.

Races tend to be more even from a pace perspective over longer distances and that seems to be the case here with front running, racing in mid division and being held up all resulting in pretty similar place percentages. Front runners actually perform poorest of all in terms of placing with a place strike rate of 25% but being near the pace isn’t a complete disadvantage as prominent racers have comfortably the best win and place strike rates. The win percentage when racing prominently is an impressive 17.05% and the place percentage is 38.64%, well clear of the next best 27.66% for mid division.

Despite the small sample there does seem enough of a difference in the data to suggest that racing just off the pace is advantageous over longer trips around the Haydock chase course.

Given how close the data is for the three other run styles it doesn’t seem worth doing anything with this pace data other than simply marking up those that are likely to race prominently. 

The individual pace setup in each race will of course have an influence on this so we definitely shouldn’t blindly assume that prominent racers will be advantaged in every single race but more often than not they are likely to be seen to best effect here.

3m+ Hurdle Pace Bias At Haydock On Good Or Good To Soft Ground

To be able to get more data into the sample I have included races run over 2m6f as well, a move that is unlikely to dilute the quality of the sample given the similarity in distance.

Again, still not a massive sample but we are seeing a fairly strong advantage towards those nearer the pace here.

Front runners have a place percentage of 29.03% and prominent racers have a place strike rate of 30.77%. There is little between the two but both compare very favourably with mid division and held up with those place percentages reading 22.08% and 20.20% respectively.

So both front runners and prominent racers have a similar record of reaching the frame, as do those racing in mid division and the rear, but there is a pretty big difference between the two pairs of running styles.

So once again, take into account the pace setup in each staying hurdle race at Haydock on decent ground but in most cases mark up those likely to race in front rank.

Stayers’ Handicap Chase Analysis

My preferred race to get involved in on this card would be the chase run at 12.40 over a distance of just over 3.5m. Even on good ground stamina will be at a premium.

Firstly, here is the pace map for this race:

It seems almost certain that Furius De Ciergues will go forward and if similar tactics to recent runs are used on the rest of the field he’s going to get a pretty easy time of it at the head of affairs. He’s an extremely consistent sort having finished in the first 4 on each of his last 13 starts over hurdles and fences and his latest 3rd has been pretty well advertised since with winner Strictlyadancer going in again comfortably next time out. He’s unbeaten in two runs beyond 3m2f and should be able to fill the places once again as a minimum, even if he is 2lbs out of the handicap.

There are four contenders likely to track the early pace and this quartet should be in the best place according to the previous pace data here. 

Speak Of The Devil is a consistent horse on good ground and he’s very much in form having gone close last time out. He could be suited by this step up in trip but he’s generally been running in weaker looking races than this. He does look a fair price though all things considered.

Captain Drake ran poorly last time out but that was off the back of a break and after a wind op so he did have excuses. He has good ground hurdle form but he seems best suited by softer conditions and he’s not the easiest to fancy here. Jersey Bean is another who didn’t run well last time out. On the best of his form he has more than a fair chance but he’s not the easiest to predict.

Defuture Is Bright looks a bit short in the betting based on this season’s form. He’s already had two runs and did improve from first run to second run but he was still 13 lengths behind Furius De Ciergues last time out and he needs to rediscover last season’s form.

Amateur is all about stamina and he’s been a better horse on his more recent starts after a wind op. If he’s fully fit for this he’s a major contender. Silva Eclipse has won here and finished 2nd a further four times but the majority of his best form is on heavy or soft so conditions could be livelier than ideal for him.

This perhaps isn’t the strongest race with several of these having questions to answer so I think I’d prefer to play Furius De Ciergues each way given he is proven over the distance and in the ground and he comes into this extremely likely to run his race which is more than can be said about most of these.

Solid Contender At Lingfield

One runner I have been monitoring for some time is Uther Pendragon who runs in the 11.35am at Lingfield. He’s certainly not the classiest, nor is he the easiest to win with (just 3 wins from 67 starts compared) but he does have a much better record of filling the frame (23 top 3 finishes from 67 starts) and he’s now looking very well handicapped.

He’s put in numerous decent efforts in relatively good races.

On the 22nd December he was a narrowly beaten 3rd over course and distance off an 8lb higher mark. The winner won 2 of his next 5 starts and the 4th won next time out too.

On 12th January he was 3rd again over this course and distance, beaten 1.5 lengths, in a race where the 2nd, 4th and 6th all won shortly after. Uther Pendragon was rated 9lbs higher in that race than he is now.

On 5th February he was a neck 2nd, again over course and distance, and the winner won next time out whilst the 3rd and 4th would both finish runner up shortly after. That run also came off a 9lb higher mark than his current rating.

Then on 18th April at Newbury over this 10f off the same mark again as previous runs, he was ‘only’ 7th, beaten 5 lengths, but the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th all won within a couple of outings after. That was an extremely strong race and arguably the best example of Hot Form all season.

Uther Pendragon seemed to lose his form after that but enjoyed the return to Lingfield last time out, trying to make all but ending up in 3rd. That’s not his typical run style so he should benefit from being slightly more patiently ridden from a good draw in stall 2. If he tracks the pace and is in the same form as last time he should be able to at least place again so it will be interesting to see how the bookies price him up.