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Stat of the Day, 10th April 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

5.15 Exeter : Coopers Square @ 3/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Chased leaders, slightly lost place 10th, rallied chasing leaders before 14th, pushed along before went 2nd next, upsides and hit 2 out, ridden to lead awkward and hung left last, driven clear  to win by 3 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shanghai Grace @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt has been in fine form of late, finishing 223111 in his last 6 outings and with today's race in mind, those last 3 wins/runs include...

  • all 3 at 7f, 2 here at Lingfield, 2 in handicaps
  • 2 at class 4, 2 under jockey Cieren Fallon and 2 over this course and distance

He is trained by Charles Hills, whose runners are 5 from 18 in the last 30 days with 8 of 13 "losers" going on to make the frame.

Charles also has a decent record here in the last few years too with his runners winning 20 of 73 (27.4% SR) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter here over 6f to 1m since the start of 2015. Backing all 73 runners would have seen you make 42.7pts profit at an ROI of some 58.5%.

And with this one winning last time out, I'll wrap up with a look at how the Hills runners fare after a win and you'll be pleased to know that since the start of 2016, his handicappers who won last time out are 24 from 95 (25.3% SR) for 16.5pts (+17.3% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • males are 17/67 (25.4% SR) for 19.5pts (+29.2%)
  • at odds of 4/1 and shorter : 20/48 (41.7%) for 21.1pts (+43.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 14/45 (31.1%) for 17pts (+37.8%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 3/6 (50%) for 2.86pts (+47.7%)

...whilst from the above... Class 4 males at 4/1 and shorter are 10/20 (50% SR) for 13.8pts (+69% ROI) with a 2 from 3 record here at Lingfield yielding 3.06pts (+102% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shanghai Grace @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 11.10pm on Tuesday (6.10pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.20 Wetherby : Theflyingportrait @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, chased clear leader 4th, closed next, led 4 out, quickened clear 2 out, comfortable victory by 14 lengths) : Finally, a winner after 3 runners-up on the bounce!

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Livvy's Dream @ 9/2 & 4/1 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack ground worth £5693 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly carries bottom weight here, but brings the best recent form to the table, having won 3 of 6 handicaps this year, finishing 112 in her last three starts, including a win here over a mile in mid-September (her only previous run here) and was only beaten by 0.75 lengths over this trip at Newmarket 27 days ago in a better race than this. She now drops in class for her return to the All-Weather.

Stat-wise, I'm keeping it simple again by looking at trainer Charles Hills, because since the start of 2011, his 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ handicaps over trips further than a mile are 25 from 167 (15% SR) for 14.7pts (+8.8% ROI), a decent starting point that gives us the following of relevance today...

  • at 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs : 18/117 (15.4%) for 27.7pts (+23.7%)
  • 26-90 days since last run : 14/78 (18%) for 42.7pts (+54.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 24.8pts (+45.1%)
  • placed 2nd or 3rd LTO : 11/45 (24.4%) for 18.6pts (+41.4%)
  • on the A/W : 8/41 (19.5%) for 41.1pts (+100.3%)
  • beaten by 0.5 to 3 lengths LTO : 8/31 (25.8%) for 54.3pts (+175.1%)
  • and in November : 2/10 (20%) for 25.81pts (+258.1%)

...and from the above...Class 4 to 6 runners over 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs, 26-90 days after their last run are 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 33.4pts (+74.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Livvy's Dream @ 9/2 & 4/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & Betfair respectively at 5.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Trainer Stats: 26th June 2013

HENRY CANDY

Henry Candy in flying form

Andy Newton’s got six more flat yards that are in cracking form to look out for this week…… Read more

Chester Trainer Stats

Aidan O'BRIEN

Aidan Does Well On The Roodee...

With the 3-day Chester May Meeting this week Andy Newton highlights four trainers to look out for, plus two that might be best avoided..... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 13th April 2013

KemptonNot the biggest Saturday in the calendar, but there are still seven LIVE C4 races to get stuck into - Andy Newton's on hand with all the key trends & stats...... Read more