Posts

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

12.50 Sandown : Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up in touch, headway 8th, ridden to chase leaders before 3 out, went 3rd next, kept on same pace, no impression with front pair)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m on Heavy ground worth £7408 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding, the only previous winner at this trip in this field (has won over C&D) and is trained by Philip Hobbs, whose runners seem to have been in great form of late ie...

Last 30 days = 20 from 98 (20.4% SR) for 200.2pts (+204.3% ROI), including 8/31 (25.8%) for 102.5pts (+330.8%) in chases

Last 14 days = 10/32 (31.25%) for 93.3pts (+291.5%), inc 5/10 (50%) for 101.35pts (+1013.5%) over fences

And the past 7 days = 6/14 (42.9%) for 97.5pts (+696.2%) with 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 99.7pts (+1994%) over the larger obstacles.

Note : the P/L and resultant ROI figures are above are skewed by a 50/1 winner last Saturday that paid out at over 90/1 on the exchanges, but that doesn't detract from the strike rates.

In addition to very good recent form, Mr Hobbs' handicap chasers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 14.4pts (+15% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 23pts (+42.7%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 9/51 (17.6%) for 23.5pts (+46%)
  • on heavy ground : 4/28 (14.3%) for 18.8pts (+67.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/25 (24%) for 8.24pts (+33%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.3pts (+87.9%)

...whilst those sent off at 2/1 to 6.1 over today's course and distance are 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.09pts (+58%) including 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 5.45pts (+68.1%) on heavy ground.

Finally, as it's Saturday, it would be remiss of me not to mention Mr Hobbs' excellent record in Saturday handicaps. Saturday racing is ultra competitive and many people (owners, trainers and punters alike) find it hard to have a winner on these days, but if you were to follow Philip Hobbs in Saturday Class 1-3 handicap chases from October to January inclusive, you could do pretty well for yourself.

Since the start of 2013, such beasts (all male) are 32 from 151 (21.2% SR) for 93.5pts (+61.9%ROI), a remarkable record that includes of relevance today...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 : 29/114 (25.4%) for 88pts (+77.2%)
  • over trips of 3m/3m1f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 20.6pts (+49%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/38 (23.7%) for 18.95pts (+49.9%)
  • in December : 8/38 (21%) for 30.8pts (+81.1%)
  • on heavy  :6/27 (22.2%) for 13.27pts (+49.1%)
  • at Chepstow : 5/24 (20.8%) for 6.93pts (+28.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.22pts (+59.1%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.45pts (+137.1%)

...and from the above, those sent off at 2/1 to 10/1 over trips of 3m/3m1f are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 27.6pts (+78.8% ROI), including 7 from 14 (50%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening, whilst an extra half a point was available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.00 Fakenham : Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, not fluent 5th, ridden and headed bend approaching last, soon weakened) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, apologies for the slightly tardy write-up, I do aim to have this online by around 9am, but I had some stuff to deal with at my daughter's school this morning. Anyway, on with the details!

This 8 yr old gelding was a class, course and distance winner here LTO 22 days ago despite coming off a break of almost 6 months. He benefited from an excellent tactical ride from Richard Johnson (who retains the ride), doing just enough to win with enough in hand whilst protecting his mark for next time out. The result is a mere 3lb rise in weight, but he should also strip fitter for having had the run.

He's the only previous course and distance winner in today's contest, he loves some cut in the ground and has an excellent 30% strike rate in handicap hurdles, after winning 6 of 20 so far, including of relevance today...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) with a tongue tie
  • 6/15 (40%) going left handed
  • 5/6 (83.3%) in the final third of the year
  • 3/4 (75%) at Class 4
  • 2/4 (50%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/3 (100%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 (66.6%) off a mark of 110-120
  • 2/2 (100%) in November

His trainer Martin Keighley is 22 from 83 (26.5% SR) for 71.4pts (+86% ROI) with LTO winners since the start of 2015 and these include...

  • in handicaps : 16/59 (27.1%) for 64.3pts (+109%)
  • over hurdles : 16/49 (32.7%) for 71.9pts (+146.7%)
  • in handicap hurdles : 12/33 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+202.6%)
  • with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO : 11/22 (50%) for 53.1pts (+241.4%)
  • and with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO 6-25 days earlier : 9/15 (60%) for 49.8pts (+332.1%)

Martin also has a decent record record here at Chepstow, despite not actually having all that many runners come here. Since 2011, his handicap hurdlers have won 7 of 33 (21.2% SR) for 36.5pts (+110.6% ROI) profit, from which...

  • those last seen in the past 25 days are 5/18 (27.8%) for 40.44pts (+224.7%)
  • over this 3m C&D : 4/18 (22.2%) for 33.9pts (+188.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.1pts (+101.1%)
  • and at Class 4 : 4/12 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+142.2%)

And finally, I'll wrap this up by sharing one of my micro-systems that Solstice Star also qualifies from today...

...UK NH Hcp Hurdles + 2011-18 + LTO winner of a same class, course and distance hcp hurdle = 110/419 (26.3% SR) for 152.2pts (+36.3% ROI)...

In the interests of time, brevity etc, I'm not oing to drill down into that micro today, but it is worth noting that at trips of 3m to 3m2f, those 419 runners are 23/82 (28.1%) for 48pts (+58.5%) and those racing on Good to Soft are 17/68 (25%) for 49.5pts (+72.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Hills & Sky at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.30 Leicester : Lady Alavesa @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Behind, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led at post) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner on his only previous effort over fences and that was at Ayr back in May. He reappeared 11 days ago for a sharpener over hurdles, but was expectedly found out/outpaced over a much shorter trip, but the run will have done him good after 165-day absence. Back over fences and back up in trip, this should be more to his liking.

His yard is in great form of late with his stablemates winning 10 of 38 (26.3% SR) over the last 30 days, including 3 from 4 over fences, whilst in the last fortnight, they are 5 from 20 (25%) with a 2 from 3 record in chases.

In fact, it's less than 16 months since Olly Murphy had his first runner, but in that time he has quickly established a reputation as a decent trainer and although they do tend to attract market support, you can actually just about turn a small profit from blindly backing his chasers, as his 16 from 65 (24.6% SR) record has generated 1.16pts profit at Betfair SP at a modest ROI of 1.78%.

All 65 were males and whilst the returns are small, they're an excellent starting point and I'd never advocate blind backing anyway! Yet, of the Olly Murphy chasers so far...

  • handicappers are 14/58 (24.1%) for 2.44pts (+4.2%)
  • Class 4/5 runners are 15/51 (29.4%) for 10.22pts (+20%) you could actually stop here and do nicely!
  • after a break of 11-45 days : 12/47 (25.5%) for 8.71pts (+18.5%)
  • Class 4/5 handicappers : 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.49pts (+23.3%) another possible stopping point?
  • on Good ground : 9/34 (26.5%) for 9.1pts (+26.8%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 7/2 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.5pts (+38.3%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 7/25 (28%) for 4.41pts (+17.6%)
  • 8 yr olds are 4/14 (28.6%) for 0.32pts (+2.26%)
  • in October : 4/7 (57.1%) for 4.65pts (+66.4%)
  • and after a break of 11-15 days : 2/4 950%) for 1.47pts (+36.7%)

...and a handy composite micro from the above?

Well, it's probably a micro micro, but Olly Murphy's Class 4/5 handicap chasers priced at 10/3 and shorter just 11 to 45 days after their last run are 8 from 15 (53.3% SR) for 9.87pts at an ROI of 65.8% with Richard Johnson riding 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 9.64pts (+120.6%)...

...and Dicky himself is in good touch right now winning 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) in the last fortnight, including 7 from 14 (50%) over fences, whilst the last 7 days have seen him win 13 of 27 (48.2%) with a 5 from 7 record in chases.

And although the Murphy/Johnson/hcp chase angle hasn't seen much action in the last couple of months, it's still worth noting that it's good for 7 winners from 22 (31.8% SR) for 7.41pts (+33.7% ROI) and interestingly 5 of those 22 chasers ran in a hurdle race last time out. Two wins and a place from those five and a £100 outlay (5 x £20 straight win bets) on them would have made you £158.60 profit at an obvious ROI of 158.6%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.30 Kempton : Pot Luck @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, soon one pace, no extra closing stages)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.10 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kinglami 11/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a decent third over course and distance 8 days ago, only beaten by just over half a length on ground that was probably on the quick side for him. Back on his favoured soft ground off the same mark, I fancy to get himself (and me in the process!) back to winning ways.

His overall profile says this is exactly the kind of race he wants as from an already decent record on the Flat reading 9 from 46 (19.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+47.6% ROI) profit, he is...

  • 9/43 (20.9%) for 24.9pts (+57.9%) on a straight track
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 29.9pts (+78.7%) in cheekpieces
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 35.9pts (+112.2%) at Class 4-6
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 25.1pts (+83.7%) over 6f
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 27.4pts (+105.3%) from June to August
  • 6/20 (30%) for 29.3pts (+146.5%) in 2017/18
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 23.6pts (+130.8%) at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.5pts (+149.7%) on Soft ground
  • 4/10 (40%) for 24.9pts (+249%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/5 (60%) for 22.8pts (+456%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 16.3pts (+326%) under jockey Ryan Rossa

He is trained by John O'Shea, whose Flat runners are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 12.98pts (+76.4% ROI) over the last 30 days, with Ryan Rossa riding all four winners from just nine starts (44.4% SR) for 20.98pts profit at an ROI of 233.1%.

And overall when using Ryan to ride his Flat handicappers, Mr O'Shea's runners are 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 37.2pts (+169.1%), from which...

  • here at Chepstow : 4/10 (40%) for 16.94pts (+169.4%)
  • with Ryan claiming 3lbs : 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.28pts (+191.9%)
  • and with Ryan claiming 3lbs here at Chepstow : 2/5 (40%) for 14.1pts (+282%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kinglami 11/4 BOGa price offered by over a dozen firms at 6.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.55 Newbury : Stay Classy @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (In touch in mid-division, switched left and headway 2f out, challenged over 1f out, led narrowly well inside final furlong, headed close home and beaten by a neck)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swendab 10/3 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

This might be a low grade fixture-fulfilling type of affair, but trainers/owners don't keep 10 yr olds in training unless they think they can do themselves justice and Swendab is proving there's still plenty of life in his legs. After all, he's only had 130 races to date!

130 races or not, he's back in form and today's conditions look well suited for him, as I'll explain shortly. He was just touched off by a head here over course and distance two starts ago, before winning another Class 6, 5f affair at Ffos Las last time six days ago by 2 lengths after making all and could easily have won by further that day, so to be effectively just 4lbs worse off in what looks a slightly weaker race on paper might not be enough to anchor him, plus he has won off higher marks in the past, including over this C&D.

As many late developers do, Swendab failed to win as a 2 yr old, but since the age of 3, he has won his fair share : 17 from 125 (13.6% SR) to be precise and blindly backing him would have made a marginal profit of 2.92pts (+2.34% ROI), but backing him under the following dozen relevant angles (all of which are in play today) has been more than worthwhile...

  • in handicaps : 17/121 (14.1%) for 6.92pts (+5.72)
  • 4-20 days since last run : 14/80 (17.5%) for 23.76pts (+29.7%)
  • off a mark (OR) of 55-70 : 12/77 (15.6%) for 26.88pts (+34.9%)
  • over 5f : 13/71 (18.3%) for 22.35pts (+31.5%)
  • on a straight track : 10/59 (17%) for 12pts (+20.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 7/47 (14.9%) for 24.37pts (+51.9%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/43 (30.2%) for 26.91pts (+62.6%)
  • in fields of 4-7 runners : 8/38 (21.1%) for 8.15pts (+21.5%)
  • 4-9 days since last run : 6/26 (23.1%) for 7.87pts (+30.3%)
  • at Chepstow : 3/19 (15.8%) for 9.18pts (+48.3%)
  • in August : 6/18 (33.3%) for 13.51pts (+75%)
  • and after a win LTO : 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.86pts (+86.6%)

...AND...in 5f handicaps off a mark of 50-70 with less than 3 weeks rest = 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 42.02pts (+113.6% ROI), from which since the start of last season ie as a 9/10 yr old : 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.11pts (+161.4%)!!

His trainer John O'Shea is also in good touch right with 3 winners from 5 over the last fortnight, whilst his record on the Flat with LTO winners since 2011 stands at 18/50 (36% SR) for 44.9pts (+89.8% ROI) and whilst that's not a massive sample size, it does throw up some interesting angles that are pertinent today...

  • in handicaps : 17/49 (34.7%) for 42.1pts (+85.9%)
  • less than 3 weeks since last run : 17/41 (41.5%) for 50pts (+121.9%)
  • at same distance as LTO win : 11/25 (44%) for 29.65pts (+118.6%)
  • at same class as LTO win : 11/24 (45.8%) for 30.5pts (+127%)
  • at Chepstow : 9/21 (42.9%) for 26.6pts (+126.6%)
  • using a jockey claiming 5lbs : 7/19 (36.8%) for 19.66pts (+103.5%)
  • in August : 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+108%)
  • at Class 6 : 8/15 (53.3%) for 18.75pts (+125%)
  • and over 5f : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.3pts (+111.8%)

...AND...from the above...Chepstow handicappers at the same class/distance as an LTO win in the previous three weeks = 4/4 (100% SR) for 19.55pts (+488.75% ROI), interestingly all ridden by claimers!

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Swendab 10/3 BOGa price Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were slightly better @ 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 25th

WINDSOR – JUNE 25 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £701.90 (6 favourites: No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 3.7 units went through – 22/1 – 16/1 – 20/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 89.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 66/1 – 10/11*

Race 3: 54.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 6/4*

Race 4: 29.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 13/8*

Race 5: 24.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 11/4 (15/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 3/1 (9/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 6 (Cent Flying), 2 (Spot Lite) & 3 (Spanish Star)

Leg 2 (6.40): 11 (Swiper), 5 (Glory) & 9 (Storm Shelter)

Leg 3 (7.10): 2 (Bella Ferrari) & 6 (Edge Of The World)

Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Buffer Zone) & 5 (Perfect Hustler)

Leg 5 (8.10): 1 (Desert Path), 5 (Morning Sky) & 2 (Candidate)

Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Worth Waiting) & 2 (Contrive)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

 

 6.10: CENT FLYING is ten pounds better in with SPOT LITE for a minimum margin defeat on Bath form earlier in the year.  It would not be wise to take that form line too seriously given the different format of the two tracks but even so, the weights and measures act offers the nod to the first named William Muir raider, on principle if nothing else.  Bookmakers have choked on cigars for as long as man can recall when such scenarios have been on place, only for the form lines to become as twisted as Alfred Hitchcock plots down the years.  Should both runners fall wide of the required mark (entirely possible at this level), connections of SPANISH STAR should prove to be the main beneficiaries.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite sent the majority of punters home happy, given that twelve months ago, this was the last race on the card.

 

6.40: Tom Clover has saddled just the one juvenile winner from six two-year-old runners so far this season, though it’s worth pointing out that the gold medallist in question (Gypsy Spirit) won at 14/1 at this venue.  Tom saddles STORM SHELTER this time around with the same jockey (Josephine Gordon) booked to ride.  That said, Richard Hannon has declared two horses and there might not be a great deal to choose between SWIPER and GLORY who were both mentioned positively in despatches via a stable tour earlier in the year. It’s worth noting that Richard sent out six winners on Saturday (barely noticed by hacks because of the royal meeting).  Yes, Richard saddled 18 runners on the day but the accumulator was worth 727/1 if you picked the correct sextet, scorers which produced three points of level stake profit for the yard.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.10: There will be worse outsiders on the card than BLESSED TO IMPRESS I’ll wager, though BELLA FERRARI and EDGE OF THE WORLD should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  The pair is listed in order of preference, given that the 6/1 quote in a couple of places this morning offers half decent ‘bet to nothing’ prospects about the George Scott’s raider who is a pound better off with that rival on Leicester form last time out, when George’s Bated Breath filly was making her handicap debut.  That said, Ralph Beckett sent one horse up to Pontefract to winning effect yesterday and his hat trick seeker EDGE OF THE WORLD looks set to run her race again on these terms.

Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Windsor programme.

 

7.40: Ten of the twelve winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, stats which suggest that Kimifive (from 8-6) might struggle against his five rivals this event.  The pick of the relevant quintet will hopefully prove to be BUFFER ZONE, though those working from a working man’s wage might care to row in with Jeremy Noseda’s each way option, namely PERFECT HUSTLER who is closely matched with the hot favourite via two-year-old form.  Jeremy has suffered something of a well-documented traumatic year, though it’s worth noting that his 8/28 record since February is a (29%) ratio which most trainers would settle for.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/1—Buffer Zone (good)

 

8.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6, though even this self-confessed ‘stats anorak’ is taking on the figures this time around with DESERT PATH.  Amanda Perret’s top weight is still on offer at 9/2 at the time of writing, a price that I snapped up in the dead of night, presuming that the odds would not last too long.  MORNING SKYE and CANDIDATE have both been well placed by their respective connections, though DESRT PATH represents a far better chance than the 18% ‘probability quote’ by the layers this morning from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the last 21 years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Desert Path (good)

 

8.40: Starlight Mystery represents some value for money at around the 9/1 mark this morning in the Placepot finale, though the safest options to secure another dividend appear to be WORTH WAITING and CONTRIVE. David Lanigan’s raider WORTH WAITING is the option that I would take if money arrives for the Bated Breath filly, given that a great number of David’s winners are well backed.  Without holding that potential edge by writing this analysis fourteen hours ahead of the race, I will just have to be patient and see what support transpires.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Footnote to why the Placepot paid so well last the previous year (2016 - £455.90)

Despite five winning favourites in the relevant Placepot events, one race did the damage.

Six runners were declared but two non-runners evolved, creating ‘false figures’ from a Placepot perspective with the units from the N/R’s going on to the favourite which was beaten in the subsequent ‘win only’ contest by a 9/1 chance.

As always, scrutinise the non-runners board before ever placing a Placepot wager. Seek the ‘edge’ over your fellow investors whenever possible.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 15

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.90 (8 favourites: 3 winners & 5 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 84.4% units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 – 5/4*

Race 2: 68.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 8/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 78.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 3/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 57.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 33/1 – 10/1

Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4** - 6/4** - 16/1

Race 6: 68.8% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 3/1** - 3/1**

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Oberyn Martell) & 3 (Good Luck Fox)

Leg 2 (2.35): 12 (Sky Cross), 6 (Glorious Dane) & 5 (Eagle Hunter)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Brigand), 1 (Character Witness) & 4 (Warssan)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Acclimatise) & 6 (Turnpike Trip)

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Preening), 8 (Autumn Leaves) & 3 (Affina)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Beringer) & 9 (Hyanna)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Firelight in easy to back at around the 16/1 mark this morning but it will interesting to keep an eye on Andrew Balding’s raider, especially as the trainer has (unusually as I recall) five George Strawbridge juveniles in training this term. More logical winners today include OBERYN MARTELL and GOOD LUCK FOX.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have secured just one bronze medal between them to date.

 

2.35: Mark Johnston (SKY CROSS) leads Richard Hannon (GLORIOUS DANE & DANCING SPEED) 4/3 via recent renewals and I cannot visualise all three horses finishing out of the frame.  That said, the declarations of EAGLE HUNTER and Roger Varian’s late May foal KENZOHOPE complicates matters. Just to add salt into the potential wound, there is plenty of money coming in for Happy Power as I close out the race.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have finished in the frame during the 19 year study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

3.10: With four of his last nine runners having won at the time of writing, William Haggas carries on regardless of where his horses run and at what level. William could be greeting another gold medallist on Friday afternoon with BRIGAND in this event.  That said, this is a lively three-year-old handicap and no mistake, with connections of CHARACTER WITNESS and WARSAAN also have solid reasons for fancying their respective chances.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals to date.  Three of the four relevant horses won their respective events at 13/8, 7/4 and 7/2**.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have secured 20 of the last 37 available Placepot positions in this event, as well as winning six of the twelve contests for good measure (stats include a 12/1 chance).  Four-year-olds are 1/2 to extend the trend before the form book is taken into consideration, with ACCLIMATISE and TURNPIKE TRIP at the head of the overnight list.  I could have really fancied Henry Candy’s latter named raider but for the fast ground, given that his two wins last year were both gained under good to soft conditions.  Given his 11/1 quote in three places at the time of writing, I’m willing to take the gamble, from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (exact science), statistics which include five (11/4, 2/1, 11/8, 5/4 & Evens) winners.

 

4.20: AFFINA is attracting money at double figure prices as I drift towards the end of the Placepot card and there is every chance that Simon Crisford’s raider can reach the frame.  From a win perspective however, PREENING and AUTUMN LEAVES will command more attention from the Sandown faithful I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include three (3/1, 6/4** & 5/4) winners.

 

4.50: Eleven of the twelve winners have carried a minimum of 9-1 (nine of the last ten were burdened with 9-3 or more) whereby BERINGER and HYANNA form my permutation in the Placepot finale.  If there is a flat trainer in the land who has improved her ratios better than Eve Johnson Houghton in recent months I would be surprised and her new inmate Hyanna might push the projected favourite Beringer all the way to the line.  For the record, the reserve nomination is awarded to Returning Glory.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won 6/12 of the contests to date, whist ten of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd June

EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2017: £503.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,108.98 - 45 favourites - 12 winners - 13 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Poet’s Prince) & 5 (Ship Of The Fen)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Shenanigans), 5 (Stage Name) & 1 (Diaphora)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Caspian Dream) & 1 (Arod)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Caspian Prince), 13 (Just That Lord), 16 (Tanasoq), 18 (Bahamian Sunset) & 12 (Harry Hurricane)

Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Hazapour) & 11 (Young Rascal)

Leg 6 (5.15): 9 (Reshoun), 10 (Star Of The East) & 14 (Golden Wolf)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last fourteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £831.51.  94 favourites have emerged via the 84 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 22 winners--28 placed--44 unplaced.  Ten of the last eleven winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price two years ago before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  Drochaid was short listed last year before winning at 11/2.  POET’S PRINCE and SHIP OF THE FEN have plenty to offer potential investors to kick start the day, whilst offering MACAQUE as an outsider to consider.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process. Nine renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7-6 (8 ran-good)

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Epsom record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Corazon Espinado (good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last eighteen renewals of this contest and with half (4/8) of the declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the quartet from my viewpoint are SHENANIGANS, STAGE NAME and DIAPHORA.  The trio are offered in order of preference whilst I’m not totally writing off the chance of the other vintage representative Soul Silver, despite the overnight quote of 25/1 for David Simcock’s Dragon Pulse filly.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed as have ten of the latest twenty market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-8-10 (10 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 14 years paid £100.58.  Fifty eight favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 14 were placed and 26 unplaced.  It would help a great deal if this ‘dead eight’ field remained intact as I have left the race to last to see how many options I have relating to my permutation.  Just two runners are available to yours truly and the pin has somehow fallen on the pair CENTURY DREAM and course winner AROD.  The overnight reserve is listed as last year’s winner Sovereign Debt.

Favourite factor: Sixteen of the last twenty winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  That said, only four of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

2-6 (7 ran-good)

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Arod (good)

1/2—Sovereign Debt (good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last thirteen renewals, whilst nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Horses emerging from ‘trap one’ have finished in the frame in five of the last nine renewals, winning on two occasions. JUST THAT LORD (1/20) demands to be included accordingly, whilst CASPIAN PRINCE is on a hat trick in the race has not faired too badly in trap two either!  His record of 4/5 at this unique circuit is probably one of the best of all time, particularly given the type of races that Michael Appleby’s grand servant generally contests.  My other trio against the field come from those drawn further wide, namely TANSOQ (16), BAHAMIAN SUNRISE (13) and HARRY HURRICANE (20) who might even have an advantage if plenty of moisture remains in the ground, albeit that is unlikely with the Epsom surface having been built on chalk.

Favourite factor: Only four of the last twenty favourites have finished in the frame.  Just one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last eleven years during which time, the average price of the winner was 11/1 which is a perfectly respectable return in such a competitive race.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-10-12-5 (19 ran-good)

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

Course winners in the ‘Dash’:

1/6—Duke Of Firenze (good)

4/5—Caspian Prince (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/4—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/5—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and twelve placed horses in the Derby during the last nineteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, so few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in that particular trial.  SAXON WARRIOR appears to be the main hope for the O’Brien team this year, though the favourite has been drifting in recent days, mainly because of the recent rain and the seemingly negative draw (1).  There is also the worry that the Deep Impact colt might not stay the trip after showing tremendous speed to win the Newmarket Guineas in such emphatic style.  I am leaving Ryan Moore’s mount out of my Placepot permutation, though mainly because Saxon Warrior will represent poor value for money, especially as if the favourite is beaten, there must be a chance that the defeat was caused because he failed to see out the twelve furlong which suggests that he might finish out of the money entirely. ROARING LION is another who has been friendless in the market these last few days and with Frankie waxing lyrical about his mount HAZAPOUR, the each way money on the day is likely to be for Dermot Weld’s Shamardal colt.  YOUNG RASCAL might have the most improvement in the field with plenty of untapped potential seemingly in place, especially having won at Chester after meeting plenty of trouble in running.  Of the really big priced runners, SEVENNA STAR could sneak the frame at around 25/1 for John Gosden who is seeking his third winner of this ‘Blue Riband’ event.

Favourite factor: Eighteen of the last nineteen winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby six years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1981.  Only a week ago, Saxon Warrior looked sure to be an odds on chance on Saturday, though that might not be the case now.

Draw factor:

14-13-7 (18 ran-good)

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the Derby this year:

1/2—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed ten of the last twenty renewals including nine of the last fourteen contests (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last nine years + first, second and fourth four years ago). I am pinning my hopes on RESHOUN (drawn 14/19), STAR OF THE EAST (10) and GOLDEN WOLF (2).  The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past twenty years, whilst just five of the other nineteen market leaders have additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

9-12-4 (10 ran-good)

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Great Hall (good)

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

2/6—Lorelina (2 x good)

1/15—Whinging Willie (heavy)

2/8—Barwick (soft & haeavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 22nd May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £672.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 6.9% units went through – 10/1 & 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 41.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 14/1 3/1*

Race 3: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 6/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 5: 34.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 9/4 – 9/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Darrik) & 1 (Barend Boy)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Ibraz), 6 (Infastructure) & 1 (Hasanoanda)

Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Viceroy Mac), 9 (Tebay) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (3.25): 4 (Fabulous Red), 3 (Caiya) & 1 (Verandah)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Affina), 3 (Sea Youmzain) & 7 (Storm Jazz)

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Airton) & 2 (Really Super)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BAREND BOY probably deserves to get his head in front after two likeable efforts thus far though in DAARIK, Hugo Palmer’s raider once again finds a tough cookie to beat, in all probability.  The exchanges (at the time of writing) suggests that the latter named John Gosden raider might have to give way to experience on this occasion but that said, jungle drums have been beating for Jim Crowley’s mount for some time.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader (Panphobia – the fear of everything) finished out with the washing.

 

2.20: History Writer was weak on the exchanges in the dead of night, whereby preference is offer to IBRAZ and INFASTRUCTURE before the market takes any real shape.  I’m not quite sure what to make of HASANOANDA as an individual but one thing I for certain, his trainer (John Gosden) knows the time of day at every level of the sport whereby it could prove churlish in the extreme to leave the Lingfield (A/W) winner out of the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

2.55: “Dragons Voice jumps off the page to a fashion here” is how I started my analysis of this race twelve months ago before Fran Berry’s mount scored at 8/1. Seeking to follow up in similar fashion, I’m offering a chance to VICEROY MAC who has been the subject of overnight support at around the same price.  David Loughane’s Sepoy gelding was highly tried at Ascot on his seasonal debut recently and stepping down to this level could bring about a much improved effort.  Others for the Placepot mix include TEBAY and MASHAHEER.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.25: As readers can testify to their cost (via a big priced selection the other week at Chester), I find it difficult to know when Ed Dunlop is about to strike with his horses but that said, FABULOUS RED demands to be in the mix here from my viewpoint.  If I am going to hold a post-race self-imposed enquiry on my hands, it will probably mean that I have under estimated the chances of CAIYA and VERANDAH. John Gosden’s latter named raider might not be out of the mix from a win perspective despite top weight, whilst CAIYA is unbeaten thus far via three assignments, whereby it’s difficult to put a line through Eve Johnson Houghton’s fast improving Casamento filly.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Nottingham programme.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Daddies Girl (good to soft)

 

4.00: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at just 7/1.  AFFINA is attracting support at the time of writing and if Simon Chrisford has his Kodiac filly anywhere near cherry ripe for her seasonal debut, James Doyle’s mount should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  That comment would normally mean that I would just add one more horse in my mix, but as this is potentially a ‘dead eight’ event, I’m looking for two additions in fear of a non runner rearing its ugly head.  The pin has fallen on the pair of SEA YOUMZAIN and STORM JAZZ.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far without having been represented in two of the missing years.  AIRTON is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and is the first name on the team sheet accordingly.  James Bethell’s Champ Elesees gelding represents a yard which has celebrated two (12/1 & 7/1) winners of late and it’s worth noting that Jim Crowley’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight.  That same comment also applies to REALLY SUPER who was overpriced in double figures from my viewpoint, albeit I respect my own ‘favourite figures’ below which suggests that a short priced entry should win the contest.  The problem is that I don’t fancy any of the said declarations!

Favourite factor: The nine favourites to date have secured five gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

5/18—Hallstatt (3 x good & 2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 4th May

MUSSELBURGH – MAY 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £17.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 72.7% units went through – 7/2 – 9/4* - 13/2

Race 2: 95.3% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 & 4/6*

Race 3: 80.0% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 6/5* - 11/2

Race 4: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*

Race 5: 15.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 14/1 (4/5)

Race 6: 81.8% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1 – 6/4* - 11/2

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Ahlan Bil Emarati), 5 (Josiebond) & 2 (Deep Intrigue)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Rapid Applause), 7 (Lydiate Lady) & 3 (Longroom)

Leg 3 (3.10): 8 (Zoravan), 5 (Crazy Tornado) & 10 (Royal Connoisseur)

Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Mosalim) & 2 (Tribal Warrior)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Elite Icon), 1 (Four Kingdoms) & 8 (Ravenswood)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Trading Point) & 10 (Al Ozzdi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: AHLAN BIL EMARATI represents Kevin Ryan who has saddled six of his last nine runners to winning effect, whereby it is an unexpected fact to reveal in the dead of night that Kevin’s April foal is on the slide in the market.  The reverse is true (to a fashion) regarding JOSIEBOND with quite a bit of money lined up in the (realistic) positive queue for the Rebecca Bastiman raider at the time of writing.  DEEP INTRIGUE completes my trio against the remaining four contenders to start off the meeting.

Favourite factor: The opening event on the Musselburgh card is a new event.

 

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2.40:  With eight of the ten course winners on the Placepot card assembled in this one event, you will pardon me for suggesting that this is a nightmare event in the making.  All three winners have been drawn on the low side, a stat which goes against Royal Brave who scored from trap four twelve months ago but has ‘13’ to overcome this time around.  Others are preferred accordingly, namely RAPID APPLAUSE (2), LYDIATE LADY (1) and LONGROOM (8).

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders (via just three renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the eight course winners in the field:

3/10—Royal Brave (3 x good to firm)

3/5—Longroom (2 x good to firm & good)

1/4—Landing Night (good to firm)

1/8—Peal Acclaim (good to firm)

1/1—Suwaan (good to firm)

1/6—Lexington Place (good)

1/2—Pea Shooter (good)

1/1—Lady Cristal (good to firm)

 

3.10: Horses carrying 9-2 or less have secured 15 of the last 26 available Placepot positions, stats which include seven of the eleven winners. ZORAVAN and CRAZY TORNADO are two of the three Keith Dalgleish raiders in the contest and though a stable companion is the shortest priced representative, this pair offer better value from my viewpoint.  ROYAL CONNOISSEUR completes my trio in another trappy contest on the card.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, with four market leaders having won their respective events at odds of 4/1-3/1-5/2-11/8.

 

3.40: Four of the seven horses saddled by William Haggas won yesterday, completing an 83/1 four-timer for the yard.  William has declared MOSALIM here with obvious claims, with connections having most to fear from TRIBAL WARRIOR, likely as not.  Money for the James Tate’s New Approach colt would add interest to proceedings, given that the vast majority of his winners are well backed.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/5 favourite claimed a Placepot position by finishing second, flanked by horses which were sent off at 13/2 & 11/2.

 

4.10: The ground might go against Richard Fahey’s dual course winner Royal Cosmic and given the odds on offer, the likes of ELITE ICON, FOUR KINGDOMS and RAVENSWOOD make more appeal.  There is some dross to wade through (like yesterday) again and once more, the race planners have seemingly lost the plot.  Given the depth of meetings on 2000 Guineas day tomorrow, why couldn’t Goodwood have shifted their meeting forward by 24 hours?   I appreciate that no racecourse wants to ‘demote’ a Saturday meeting but let’s be fair, the ‘Glorious’ week attracts more racegoers than 50% of the venues across the land manage during an entire year, whereby there is no excuse for the lack of sensible planning.

Favourite factor: The fifth race on the Musselburgh programme is another new contest.

Record of the two course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

2/2—Royal Cosmic (good to soft & soft)

1/8—Falcon’s Fire (good)

 

4.40: TRADING POINT looks just about bombproof from a Placepot perspective despite a ‘stopping’ weight.  Whether the concession of the thick end of two stones to AL OZZDI can be undertaken to winning effect is another matter entirely.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess.

 

Record of the three course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.15:

1/3—Haymarket (good to firm)

1/8—Adventureman (good)

1/5—Ghostly Arc (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 27th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £114.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.2% units went through – 6/4* - 12/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 67.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 9/2 – 11/4*

Race 3: 16.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 12/1 (5/6)

Race 4: 31.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/2** - 10/1 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 5: 83.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 8/1

Race 6: 35.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 12/1 – 16/1

 

Firday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Kings Shield), 4 (Dream Warrior) & 6 (Motown Mick)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Morando) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Sevenna Star) & 4 (Ispoloni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Addeybb), 2 (Here Comes When) & 3 (Khafoo Shememi

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Leg 5 (4.05): 8 (Diamond Dougal), 4 (Haddaf) & 2 (Spoof)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Highgarden) & 7 (Must Be Magic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: 'Team Hannon' have landed this prize twice in the last twelve years, one of only two represented stables to have won the contest on two occasions during the study period.  Richard saddles MOTOWN MICK who boasts win and place claims though this looks to be a tough heat, with KINGS SHIELD and DREAM WARRIOR having been declared by the powerful John Gosden and Charlie Appleby stables respectively.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Fifteen of the last twenty winners were returned at 17/2 or less.

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have won fourteen of the last sixteen renewals of this Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes with the ‘juniors’ leading 8-6 during the period, though five-year-olds were only conspicuous by their absence three years ago.  With rain on the radar, it would not surprise me to see What About Carlo outrunning his 9/1 quote in places this morning, though CRYSTAL OCEAN and MORANDO make more appeal from a win perspective.  Fabricate is one of those horses that I cannot get right so in passing up Michael Bell’s raider today, you might start forming an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to ‘get on’!

Favourite factor: Three of the last ten favourites have obliged whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at just 8/1.  That said, only eight of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.00: This Group 3 Classic Trial invariably produces an intriguing contest and this year's renewal is no exception. I referred to the stables of John Gosden and Charlie Appleby as ‘powerful’ in the opening race which goes without saying, though especially at this moment in time when their aggregate recent ratio stands at 42/96 (44% strike rate), figures which have produced level stake profits of 60 points in recent weeks!  Their respective raiders SEVENNA STAR and ISPOLINI cannot be opposed from my self-confessed ‘anorak’ viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Just four favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals, though bookmakers have not had things going all their own way.  Fourteen gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 1/2 and 11/2.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen contests, with ADDEYBB and KHAFOO SHEMENI representing the vintage this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference at the time of writing but with relentless rain falling here in the west-country this morning (seemingly on its way through to Sandown later today), HERE COMES WHEN cannot be left out of calculations.  Loyal readers will recall that I napped Andrew Balding’s Danehill Dancer gelding is last year’s Sussex Stakes when scoring at 20/1 and there is every indication that Jim Crowley’s mount can go close again today having won at the first time of asking twelve months ago.  That said, ADDEYBB turned the Lincoln Handicap into a procession on soft ground a few weeks ago which only adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have scored during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/22 market leaders have secured win and place positions during the study period.  Seventeen of the last twenty gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

4.05: Twelve of the fifteen winners to date have carried weights of 9-2 or less though that is of no help now that the top weight has been withdrawn from the contest.  What should have been a fairly simple ‘dead eight’ race to assess now takes on a whole new meaning whereby I am offering three horses against the field, namely DIAMOND DOUGAL, HADDAF and SPOOF.  James Tate’s winners are invariable well fancied and money for HADDAF would ensure that the Dawn Approach gelding would be the call if a gun was pointed to my head to name the winner.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen market leaders reached the frame during the study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

4.35:  The lads and lasses in the trade press office must have been ‘on the wallop’ when chalking up HIGHGARDEN as a potential 7/2 chance in this event yesterday.  I have made the point on numerous occasions that as an Odds Compiler myself, pricing up certain races is a difficult task but John Gosden’s Nathaniel filly was so impressive on soft ground at Newbury on her only start last year, that 6/4 would have been as far as I would have dared to ‘promote’ going into the contest.  MUST BE MAGIC is the logical danger, albeit after just one half decent effort thus far.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, with ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 8/1 during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 14th April 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.50 Aintree : Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Held up in touch, went 3rd at 12th, hit 3 out, challenged after next, ridden to lead before last, asserted clear final 110 yards to win by 3.75 lengths)

And now to Saturday's...

4.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG

A 6-runner, Class 3,  2m7.5f Chase (Novices Limited Handicap 5yo+) on heavy ground worth £7343 to the winner...

Why?

I've had some connection issues overnight/this morning, so I'm (a) running a bit late and (b) going to keep this fairly concise.

This 6yr old gelding was third last time out 50 days ago a better looking/deeper race than this one and yet has been eased 2lbs in the ratings, which should help.

He has no previous run on heavy ground, admittedly, but has raced most of his 10-race career on soft ground, winning twice on soft and twice at Class 3.

He's trained by Tom Lacey who has been somewhat of a revelation these past couple of years with his handicappers winning 36 of 126 (28.% SR) for 103.5pts (+82.2% ROI) since the start of 2016 and with today's contest in mind, those 126 are...

  • 30/108 (27.8%) for 86.5pts (+80.1%) from male runners
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 73.1pts (+98.8%) from those with a top 3 finish LTO
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 34.4pts (+90.5%) at Class 3
  • 9/31 (29%) for 7.82pts (+25.2%) in chases
  • 5/20 (25%) for 3.27pts (+16.35%) on heavy ground
  • 4/10 (40%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in April
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.52pts (+84.1%) here at Chepstow

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th April

AINTREE – APRIL 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £145.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 54.7% units went through – 11/1- 5/1- 16/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 56.6% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 14/1 – 7/2

Race 3: 22.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 4: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 – 9/2*

Race 5: 69.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 5/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 25.3% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1 – 16/1 – 25/1 – 8/1*

*It’s worth noting that despite three of the top ten horses in the betting (including the favourite) finished in the frame in a 40 strong field, only a quarter of the live Placepot units going into the Grand National survived.

*I secured a healthy return of £116.64 on Friday (80p of the £145.80 dividend) - offering confidence as we go into one of the biggest days on the racing calendar.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 3 (Dream Berry), 1 (Louis’ Vac Pounch) & 10 (Red Indian)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (On The Blind Side), 9 (Kildisart) & 6 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Petit Mouchoir) & 2 (Diego Du Charmil)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Thomas Patrick), 15 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 4 (Rocklander)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sam Spinner) & 11 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (5.15): 18 (Seeyouatmidnight), 37 (Milansbar), 13 (Tiger Roll) & 2 (Blaklion)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, whilst six of the last seven eight gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones. Jonjo O'Neill has saddled three winners during the last twelve years and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DREAM BERRY, LOUIS’ PAC and RED INDIAN.  Jonjo O’Neill (DREAM BERRY) deserves a change of luck, the trainer having fancied Minella Rocco strongly before the rains came.  Jonjo took the horse out of the big race yesterday and few people would deny the trainer a winner on the big day.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one co favourite.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

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1/2—Louis’ Vac Pouch (soft)

1/1—Knight Of Noir (good)

1/3—Sykes (good)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, though only two big outsiders have been declared, one of which is a doubtful starter, with Bedrock having run on Friday.  That leaves 25/1 chance CHOSEN PATH as the each way call, though course winner ON THE BLIND SIDE might take the beating.  Another each way option is KILDISART who represents Ben Pauling, looking a tad overpriced at the time of writing at around the 16/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst fourteen of the nineteen jollies have secured Placepot positions. Going back further in time, 17/40 renewals to date have been won by favourites (42.5% strike rate).

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—On The Blind Side (good)

 

3.00: Six-year-old's have secured six of the last seven renewals in which they were represented, the relevant raiders in 2015 only being conspicuous by their absence. Upwards and onward in positive mode by confirming that two vintage representative take their chance, namely DIEGO DU CHARMIL and SHANTOU ROCK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, PETIT MOUCHOIR should take plenty of beating, though connections would have been disappointed in the running of Balko Des Flos on Friday.  Connections would not want much more rain for the favourite I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and one joint market leader have won since 1999, whilst 13 of the 19 jollies have claimed Placepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous 13 years was returned at 6/1 before the 28/1 gold medallist prevailed in 2013.

 

3.40: 15 of the last 16 winners carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst eight-year-old's have won seven of the last seventeen contests.   All three eight-year-olds fit the weight trend but trainers have failed to do their homework given just a trio of declarations. BELLS OF AILSWORTH is the pick from my viewpoint, with the Tim Vaughan raider have secured a medal of each colour from just four starts on soft ground.  More logical winners include a worthy favourite in THOMAS PATRICK from the red hot Tom Lacey yard and (arguably) ROCKLANDER.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the last 18 years, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—On Tour (soft)

 

4.20: The potential market leaders both cope with this type of ground whereby I will take the quick (hopefully) safe route towards the main event/finale by naming SAM SPINNER and WHOLESTONE against their nine rivals, especially given the favourable trend for fancied horses for several years now.  The ground is the worry for The Worlds End, whilst the jury must surely still be out regarding the participation of L’Ami Serge who won here on Thursday.

Favourite factor: 13 favourites have won during the last 23 years (56.5% strike rate, whilst market leaders have secured Placepot position in each of the last twelve years.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—L’Ami Serge (soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good)

 

5.15: Let’s get some of the Grand National facts and figures out of the way to start with.  Nine and ten-year-olds have shared 14 of the last 22 renewals, though it's worth noting that eleven-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last seven contests.  Nine-year-olds have won ten of the last 35 contests (28.6% strike rate). Only five favourites have won via the last 34 renewals. Irish trainers have won six of the last 19 contests.  Only three grey horses have won the big race, the 2012 winner being the first for fifty one years.  26 female jockeys have participated in the big race with the 2012 third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date:  The record of horses ridden by female jockeys:  one placed--nine unplaced--sixteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1.  In contrast to previous results down the years, five of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  This was my selection last year; As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur (winner at 14/1) gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty. Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career. The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them.  The following runners should give us a good run for our collective monies this time around.  For a horse carrying 10-11, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has plenty of class and his each way chance is there for all to see on the best of his form.  Going back to the ‘Dipper’ steeplechase on New Year’s Day in 2016, BLAKLION was beaten fair and square by my main selection when conceding three pounds at Newcastle.  BLAKLION is asked to give an additional nine pounds on this occasion and using that horse as a decent benchmark following last year’s fine effort, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has to be the call. This race has catapulted so many jockeys into the big time down the years and it could be the turn of Bryony Frost this time around aboard MILANSBAR, who can take advantage of conditions with moisture in the ground to run well at around the 25/1 mark. It’s worth noting that Milansbar has finished in the first three in 12/18 assignments on soft/heavy ground, statistics which include five victories.  TIGER ROLL was a fine winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month over the specialist cross country fences, whereby this circuit could (again) bring out the best of the Gordon Elliot raider who looks set to reach the frame if enjoying a trouble free passage.  The worry is that the soft/heavy ground might wear the little warrior down at the business end of proceedings.  The Nigel Twiston-Davies raider BLAKLION ran well for us to finish fourth last year when listed as my third choice in the race.  The experience of jumping these fences over this distance of ground is counteracted by the fact that the horse is asked to carry an additional eight pounds twelve months on.  I fully expect Blaklion to reward each way investors, probably finding one or two too good for him from a win perspective.  The reserve option on the eve of the big race is VIEUX LION ROUGE who has won five of his six races on heavy ground.  On the flip side of the coin, this is his third start in the race having failed to finish in the frame to date, albeit those renewals were contested on faster ground.

Favourite factor: Two joint market leaders and one clear favourite have won the Grand National during the last thirteen years which is a great record in such a competitive event, bucking previous market leader trends. 11 of the 24 favourites during the last 15 years have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the Grand National:

1/4—Blaklion (heavy)

1/4—Vieux Lion Touge (good to soft)

1/4—Gas Line Boy (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 6.15:

1/1—Chesterfield (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 2nd April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 2 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £180.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 46.3% units went through – 11/10 (Win only – 8/11* unplaced)

Race 2: 93.4% of the remaining units when through – 4/11* & 3/1

Race 3: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* (Win only)

Race 4: 52.7% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* (Win only)

Race 5: 13.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 (Win only – 5/4 * unplaced)

Race 6: 48.7% of the units secured the dividend – 9/2 & 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 1 (Sussex Ranger)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Pearls Legend) & 1 (Mick Thonic)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Snippertydoodah), 4 (Bagging Turf), 1 (Loves Destination) & 2 (Diva Du Maquis)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Beau Bay) & 2 (Casse Tete)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Cassievellaunus) & 1 (Welluptoscratch)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Show’s Over), 6 (Yourholidayisover) & 1 (Mr Muddle)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.55:  There is no reason whatsoever why this race will not turn into a procession for SUSSEX RANGER, unless Gary Moore’s four-year-old representative slithers on landing at one of the obstacles.  Jamie Moore’s mount was only beaten a length and a half on heavy ground at Chepstow in January which offers more confidence in the banker Placepot selection, should you require such information.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/11 market leader duly obliged.

 

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

2.25: PEARLS LEGEND had his preferred ground in place when winning this event twelve months ago and these conditions will not play to his strengths.  That said, it’s impossible to leave any of the three horses on the Placepot side-lines whereby I’m hoping the defending champion can score (possible outsider of three) beating heavy ground winner TARA BRIDGE and MICK THONIC in the process, those two horses having been listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/4 favourite finished last of four as the horses finished in ‘reverse order’ in terms of the odds on offer.

Record of the course winner in the second contest on the card:

1/1—Pearls Legend (good to firm)

 

3.00: Regular readers will be aware that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum distance offer the worst favourite ratios in either code of the sport.  Add the ground scenario alongside this being a contest for mares who would rather be snug and warm in their stable boxes at home and you can see why I am including all four runners in my Placepot equation.  If pushed to name a winner, I guess I would opt for dual heavy ground course winner SNIPPERTYDOODAH, albeit with no degree of certainty whatsoever.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

Record of the two course winners in the third event:

2/7—Loves Destination (heavy & soft)

2/7—Snippertydoodah (2 x heavy)

 

3.35: BEAU BAY has two engagements for today pencilled in though I can assure you writing this just across the Severn Bridge that Chepstow has very little chance of staging racing this afternoon as it has been raining all night here in the west country.  Dr Richard Newland’s seven-year-old has won all six races with plenty of moisture in the turf and is expected to go in again at the main expense of CASSE TETE.

Favourite factor: This ‘Sussex Champion Chase’ is the second new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the two course winners in this Class 2 contest:

1/1—Royal Vacation (soft)

1/3—Dusky Lark (soft)

 

4.10: Daniel Steele’s Danehill Dancer gelding CASSIEVELLAUNUS is not asked to do a great deal more here following a recent course victory which was gained under conditions not unlike those which will be in evidence this afternoon.  WELLUPTOSCRATCH has been keeping better company though this ground is a leveller as far as he is concerned and then some.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Welluptoscratch (good)

1/3—Cassievellaunus (heavy)

 

4.45: SHOW’S OVER receives plenty of weight here on what is likely to be desperate ground by the time flag fall is reached fn the course gets the green light later this morning. YOURHOLIDAY IS OVER and MR MUDDLE are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is another new race to close out our favourite wager.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/10—Mr Muddle (good – good to firm – soft)

1/7—Gores Island (good)

1/2—Yourholidayisover (soft)

 

Record of the two course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) event on the card:

1/4—Howlongisafoot (good)

1/5—Yokon Delta (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 22nd March

LUDLOW – MARCH 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.90 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 76.9% units went through – 2/9* (Win only)

Race 2: 90.4% of the remaining units when through – 1/10* (Win only)

Race 3: 84.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 13/8

Race 4: 45.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)

Race 5: 19.3 % of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 14/1 (4/5* unplaced)

Race 6: 71.6% of the units secured the dividend – 4/6* & 3/1

 

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 1 (Michael’s Mount) & 7 (Veiled Secret)

Leg 2 (3.00): 1 (Tree Of Liberty)

Leg 3 (3.35): 1 (Dans Le Vent), 2 (Silver Kayf) & 6 (Stage Summit)

Leg 4 (4.10): 4 (Tornado In Milan), 2 (Space Oddity) & 1 (Just Cameron)

Leg 5 (4.45): 2 (Opening Batsman), 1 (Grandioso) & 5 (Tugboat)

Leg 6 (5.15): 6 (Birch Hill), 1 (Night Of Sin) & 7 (Awake At Midnight)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

 

2.30: The connections of MICHAEL’S MOUNT and VEILED SECRET could hardly have wished for a better outcome here and the pair look set to lock horns on the turn into the home straight.  The pair are listed in order of preference, fully expecting the third horse to pass the jamstick ten seconds or more behind the main protagonists.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions but that said, we had to wait until last year’s 2/9 market scored to break the favourite hoodoo from a win perspective.

 

3.00: All three win only races on the last year’s Placepot card were won by favourites at odds of 10/11, 2/9 & 1/10 and TREE OF LIBERTY looks like being sent off at an even shorter price this time around! Contrasting stats relating to trainer Kerry Lee can be found at the foot of the column today.  Kerry’s soft ground course and distance winner cannot be opposed, especially as the ground will still be ‘tacky’ at this stage of the afternoon I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/10 market leader duly obliged by five lengths.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Tree Of Liberty (soft)

 

3.35: The Ludlow Executive will be pleased that this new event has attracted a number of leading trainers, though ‘bit parts’ are only conspicuous by their absence if you will excuse my phrasing.  Jamie Snowden (saddles course winner DANS LE VENT) has enjoyed a wonderful start to 2018, boasting a 26% strike rate via ten winners which is a great reward for a trainer which still (surprisingly) has to attract his fair share of inmates from my viewpoint.  SILVER KAYF and STAGE SUMMIT appear to be the potential jokers in the pack if Jamie and his team are to be denied here, the yard having secured a 35/1 double with their only two runners (at Haydock) yesterday.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Dans Le Vent (good)

 

4.10: Although TORNADO IN MILAN ‘only’ boasts a 22% strike rate down the years, the fact remains that the ratio covers nine victories, whilst the Evan Williams inmate had secured an additions sixteen medals, eleven of which were of the silver variety. Richard Johnson takes only his eighth ride for the trainer during the last five years and as all of those assignment were recorded this season, the champion jockey will be anxious to land his first success for the yard this afternoon.  For the record, the trainer/jockey bandwagon only teams up once this afternoon.  Harry Fry has saddled two of his last four runners to winning effect whereby his seven-year-old raider SPACE ODDITY might prove to be the main threat to the selection this afternoon, providing he does not unseat his partner, as was the case the last day in a two horse event!

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 10/11 market leader brought favourite backers some relief following the complete demise of the previous three jollies who had failed to claim a Placepot position between them.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

1/6—Tornado In Milan (good to soft)

 

4.45: TUGBOAT might be a 16/1 chance via the trade press quote this morning but it’s worth noting that two of his last three victories (six in total) have been gained here at Ludlow.  Not too many Hunter Chase events compete for the ‘Gold Cup’ at the respective venues but that is the case here and being a ‘spring horse’ (it is officially spring after all – could have fooled me), OPENING BATSMAN is a worthy favourite, even though his strike rate has plummeted down the years.  A winner of 5/9 races in March/April to date, it looks like being a ‘drying day’ at Ludlow this afternoon which could bring about his preferred good to soft conditions by flag fall which would be an added bonus.  GRANDIOSO (like Tugboat) has a chance to prove he in no back number just yet in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: None of the 4/5, 6/4 & 9/4 favourites have managed to add to the winning tally set by the inaugural winning 9/4 market leader four years ago.  Indeed, only the 6/4 favourite managed to add an additional Placepot position to the haul on behalf of the market leaders, which is unusual in Hunter Chase events.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

1/4—Grandioso (soft)

1/2—Opening Batsman (good to soft)

1/1—Mr Mercurial (soft)

2/5—Tugboat (good & soft)

 

5.15: Philip Hobbs is still struggling to leave behind an extremely poor set of results this winter by his high standards.  Indeed, Philip’s last fourteen runners have all been beaten whereby AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT can only be offered a Placepot chance which would not have been the case had Philip been firing in all cylinders.  One trainer’s loss is another’s gain as the saying goes, whereby Sophie Leech (BIRCH HILL) and Nick Williams (NIGHT OF SIN) might prove to be the main beneficiaries this time around.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new event on the Ludlow programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stats for Ludlow on Thursday:

It’s unfortunate that Tree Of Liberty is being quoted as a 1/33 chance in places this morning as trainer Kerry Lee boasts stats of 8/36 at the track in recent years.

That said, Kerry’s ratio since the turn of the year stands at 7/61 (a poor return by her standards) whereby the ‘mortgage’ money might best be left where it is at present.