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Stat of the Day, 14th April 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.50 Aintree : Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Held up in touch, went 3rd at 12th, hit 3 out, challenged after next, ridden to lead before last, asserted clear final 110 yards to win by 3.75 lengths)

And now to Saturday's...

4.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG

A 6-runner, Class 3,  2m7.5f Chase (Novices Limited Handicap 5yo+) on heavy ground worth £7343 to the winner...

Why?

I've had some connection issues overnight/this morning, so I'm (a) running a bit late and (b) going to keep this fairly concise.

This 6yr old gelding was third last time out 50 days ago a better looking/deeper race than this one and yet has been eased 2lbs in the ratings, which should help.

He has no previous run on heavy ground, admittedly, but has raced most of his 10-race career on soft ground, winning twice on soft and twice at Class 3.

He's trained by Tom Lacey who has been somewhat of a revelation these past couple of years with his handicappers winning 36 of 126 (28.% SR) for 103.5pts (+82.2% ROI) since the start of 2016 and with today's contest in mind, those 126 are...

  • 30/108 (27.8%) for 86.5pts (+80.1%) from male runners
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 73.1pts (+98.8%) from those with a top 3 finish LTO
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 34.4pts (+90.5%) at Class 3
  • 9/31 (29%) for 7.82pts (+25.2%) in chases
  • 5/20 (25%) for 3.27pts (+16.35%) on heavy ground
  • 4/10 (40%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in April
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.52pts (+84.1%) here at Chepstow

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th April

AINTREE – APRIL 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £145.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 54.7% units went through – 11/1- 5/1- 16/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 56.6% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 14/1 – 7/2

Race 3: 22.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 4: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 – 9/2*

Race 5: 69.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 5/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 25.3% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1 – 16/1 – 25/1 – 8/1*

*It’s worth noting that despite three of the top ten horses in the betting (including the favourite) finished in the frame in a 40 strong field, only a quarter of the live Placepot units going into the Grand National survived.

*I secured a healthy return of £116.64 on Friday (80p of the £145.80 dividend) - offering confidence as we go into one of the biggest days on the racing calendar.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 3 (Dream Berry), 1 (Louis’ Vac Pounch) & 10 (Red Indian)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (On The Blind Side), 9 (Kildisart) & 6 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Petit Mouchoir) & 2 (Diego Du Charmil)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Thomas Patrick), 15 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 4 (Rocklander)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sam Spinner) & 11 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (5.15): 18 (Seeyouatmidnight), 37 (Milansbar), 13 (Tiger Roll) & 2 (Blaklion)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, whilst six of the last seven eight gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones. Jonjo O'Neill has saddled three winners during the last twelve years and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DREAM BERRY, LOUIS’ PAC and RED INDIAN.  Jonjo O’Neill (DREAM BERRY) deserves a change of luck, the trainer having fancied Minella Rocco strongly before the rains came.  Jonjo took the horse out of the big race yesterday and few people would deny the trainer a winner on the big day.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one co favourite.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Louis’ Vac Pouch (soft)

1/1—Knight Of Noir (good)

1/3—Sykes (good)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, though only two big outsiders have been declared, one of which is a doubtful starter, with Bedrock having run on Friday.  That leaves 25/1 chance CHOSEN PATH as the each way call, though course winner ON THE BLIND SIDE might take the beating.  Another each way option is KILDISART who represents Ben Pauling, looking a tad overpriced at the time of writing at around the 16/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst fourteen of the nineteen jollies have secured Placepot positions. Going back further in time, 17/40 renewals to date have been won by favourites (42.5% strike rate).

Record of the course winner in the second race:

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1/1—On The Blind Side (good)

 

3.00: Six-year-old's have secured six of the last seven renewals in which they were represented, the relevant raiders in 2015 only being conspicuous by their absence. Upwards and onward in positive mode by confirming that two vintage representative take their chance, namely DIEGO DU CHARMIL and SHANTOU ROCK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, PETIT MOUCHOIR should take plenty of beating, though connections would have been disappointed in the running of Balko Des Flos on Friday.  Connections would not want much more rain for the favourite I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and one joint market leader have won since 1999, whilst 13 of the 19 jollies have claimed Placepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous 13 years was returned at 6/1 before the 28/1 gold medallist prevailed in 2013.

 

3.40: 15 of the last 16 winners carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst eight-year-old's have won seven of the last seventeen contests.   All three eight-year-olds fit the weight trend but trainers have failed to do their homework given just a trio of declarations. BELLS OF AILSWORTH is the pick from my viewpoint, with the Tim Vaughan raider have secured a medal of each colour from just four starts on soft ground.  More logical winners include a worthy favourite in THOMAS PATRICK from the red hot Tom Lacey yard and (arguably) ROCKLANDER.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the last 18 years, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—On Tour (soft)

 

4.20: The potential market leaders both cope with this type of ground whereby I will take the quick (hopefully) safe route towards the main event/finale by naming SAM SPINNER and WHOLESTONE against their nine rivals, especially given the favourable trend for fancied horses for several years now.  The ground is the worry for The Worlds End, whilst the jury must surely still be out regarding the participation of L’Ami Serge who won here on Thursday.

Favourite factor: 13 favourites have won during the last 23 years (56.5% strike rate, whilst market leaders have secured Placepot position in each of the last twelve years.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—L’Ami Serge (soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good)

 

5.15: Let’s get some of the Grand National facts and figures out of the way to start with.  Nine and ten-year-olds have shared 14 of the last 22 renewals, though it's worth noting that eleven-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last seven contests.  Nine-year-olds have won ten of the last 35 contests (28.6% strike rate). Only five favourites have won via the last 34 renewals. Irish trainers have won six of the last 19 contests.  Only three grey horses have won the big race, the 2012 winner being the first for fifty one years.  26 female jockeys have participated in the big race with the 2012 third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date:  The record of horses ridden by female jockeys:  one placed--nine unplaced--sixteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1.  In contrast to previous results down the years, five of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  This was my selection last year; As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur (winner at 14/1) gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty. Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career. The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them.  The following runners should give us a good run for our collective monies this time around.  For a horse carrying 10-11, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has plenty of class and his each way chance is there for all to see on the best of his form.  Going back to the ‘Dipper’ steeplechase on New Year’s Day in 2016, BLAKLION was beaten fair and square by my main selection when conceding three pounds at Newcastle.  BLAKLION is asked to give an additional nine pounds on this occasion and using that horse as a decent benchmark following last year’s fine effort, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has to be the call. This race has catapulted so many jockeys into the big time down the years and it could be the turn of Bryony Frost this time around aboard MILANSBAR, who can take advantage of conditions with moisture in the ground to run well at around the 25/1 mark. It’s worth noting that Milansbar has finished in the first three in 12/18 assignments on soft/heavy ground, statistics which include five victories.  TIGER ROLL was a fine winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month over the specialist cross country fences, whereby this circuit could (again) bring out the best of the Gordon Elliot raider who looks set to reach the frame if enjoying a trouble free passage.  The worry is that the soft/heavy ground might wear the little warrior down at the business end of proceedings.  The Nigel Twiston-Davies raider BLAKLION ran well for us to finish fourth last year when listed as my third choice in the race.  The experience of jumping these fences over this distance of ground is counteracted by the fact that the horse is asked to carry an additional eight pounds twelve months on.  I fully expect Blaklion to reward each way investors, probably finding one or two too good for him from a win perspective.  The reserve option on the eve of the big race is VIEUX LION ROUGE who has won five of his six races on heavy ground.  On the flip side of the coin, this is his third start in the race having failed to finish in the frame to date, albeit those renewals were contested on faster ground.

Favourite factor: Two joint market leaders and one clear favourite have won the Grand National during the last thirteen years which is a great record in such a competitive event, bucking previous market leader trends. 11 of the 24 favourites during the last 15 years have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the Grand National:

1/4—Blaklion (heavy)

1/4—Vieux Lion Touge (good to soft)

1/4—Gas Line Boy (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 6.15:

1/1—Chesterfield (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 2nd April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 2 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £180.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 46.3% units went through – 11/10 (Win only – 8/11* unplaced)

Race 2: 93.4% of the remaining units when through – 4/11* & 3/1

Race 3: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* (Win only)

Race 4: 52.7% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* (Win only)

Race 5: 13.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 (Win only – 5/4 * unplaced)

Race 6: 48.7% of the units secured the dividend – 9/2 & 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 1 (Sussex Ranger)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Pearls Legend) & 1 (Mick Thonic)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Snippertydoodah), 4 (Bagging Turf), 1 (Loves Destination) & 2 (Diva Du Maquis)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Beau Bay) & 2 (Casse Tete)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Cassievellaunus) & 1 (Welluptoscratch)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Show’s Over), 6 (Yourholidayisover) & 1 (Mr Muddle)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.55:  There is no reason whatsoever why this race will not turn into a procession for SUSSEX RANGER, unless Gary Moore’s four-year-old representative slithers on landing at one of the obstacles.  Jamie Moore’s mount was only beaten a length and a half on heavy ground at Chepstow in January which offers more confidence in the banker Placepot selection, should you require such information.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/11 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.25: PEARLS LEGEND had his preferred ground in place when winning this event twelve months ago and these conditions will not play to his strengths.  That said, it’s impossible to leave any of the three horses on the Placepot side-lines whereby I’m hoping the defending champion can score (possible outsider of three) beating heavy ground winner TARA BRIDGE and MICK THONIC in the process, those two horses having been listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/4 favourite finished last of four as the horses finished in ‘reverse order’ in terms of the odds on offer.

Record of the course winner in the second contest on the card:

1/1—Pearls Legend (good to firm)

 

3.00: Regular readers will be aware that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum distance offer the worst favourite ratios in either code of the sport.  Add the ground scenario alongside this being a contest for mares who would rather be snug and warm in their stable boxes at home and you can see why I am including all four runners in my Placepot equation.  If pushed to name a winner, I guess I would opt for dual heavy ground course winner SNIPPERTYDOODAH, albeit with no degree of certainty whatsoever.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

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Record of the two course winners in the third event:

2/7—Loves Destination (heavy & soft)

2/7—Snippertydoodah (2 x heavy)

 

3.35: BEAU BAY has two engagements for today pencilled in though I can assure you writing this just across the Severn Bridge that Chepstow has very little chance of staging racing this afternoon as it has been raining all night here in the west country.  Dr Richard Newland’s seven-year-old has won all six races with plenty of moisture in the turf and is expected to go in again at the main expense of CASSE TETE.

Favourite factor: This ‘Sussex Champion Chase’ is the second new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the two course winners in this Class 2 contest:

1/1—Royal Vacation (soft)

1/3—Dusky Lark (soft)

 

4.10: Daniel Steele’s Danehill Dancer gelding CASSIEVELLAUNUS is not asked to do a great deal more here following a recent course victory which was gained under conditions not unlike those which will be in evidence this afternoon.  WELLUPTOSCRATCH has been keeping better company though this ground is a leveller as far as he is concerned and then some.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Welluptoscratch (good)

1/3—Cassievellaunus (heavy)

 

4.45: SHOW’S OVER receives plenty of weight here on what is likely to be desperate ground by the time flag fall is reached fn the course gets the green light later this morning. YOURHOLIDAY IS OVER and MR MUDDLE are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is another new race to close out our favourite wager.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/10—Mr Muddle (good – good to firm – soft)

1/7—Gores Island (good)

1/2—Yourholidayisover (soft)

 

Record of the two course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) event on the card:

1/4—Howlongisafoot (good)

1/5—Yokon Delta (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 22nd March

LUDLOW – MARCH 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.90 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 76.9% units went through – 2/9* (Win only)

Race 2: 90.4% of the remaining units when through – 1/10* (Win only)

Race 3: 84.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 13/8

Race 4: 45.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)

Race 5: 19.3 % of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 14/1 (4/5* unplaced)

Race 6: 71.6% of the units secured the dividend – 4/6* & 3/1

 

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 1 (Michael’s Mount) & 7 (Veiled Secret)

Leg 2 (3.00): 1 (Tree Of Liberty)

Leg 3 (3.35): 1 (Dans Le Vent), 2 (Silver Kayf) & 6 (Stage Summit)

Leg 4 (4.10): 4 (Tornado In Milan), 2 (Space Oddity) & 1 (Just Cameron)

Leg 5 (4.45): 2 (Opening Batsman), 1 (Grandioso) & 5 (Tugboat)

Leg 6 (5.15): 6 (Birch Hill), 1 (Night Of Sin) & 7 (Awake At Midnight)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.30: The connections of MICHAEL’S MOUNT and VEILED SECRET could hardly have wished for a better outcome here and the pair look set to lock horns on the turn into the home straight.  The pair are listed in order of preference, fully expecting the third horse to pass the jamstick ten seconds or more behind the main protagonists.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions but that said, we had to wait until last year’s 2/9 market scored to break the favourite hoodoo from a win perspective.

 

3.00: All three win only races on the last year’s Placepot card were won by favourites at odds of 10/11, 2/9 & 1/10 and TREE OF LIBERTY looks like being sent off at an even shorter price this time around! Contrasting stats relating to trainer Kerry Lee can be found at the foot of the column today.  Kerry’s soft ground course and distance winner cannot be opposed, especially as the ground will still be ‘tacky’ at this stage of the afternoon I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/10 market leader duly obliged by five lengths.

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Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Tree Of Liberty (soft)

 

3.35: The Ludlow Executive will be pleased that this new event has attracted a number of leading trainers, though ‘bit parts’ are only conspicuous by their absence if you will excuse my phrasing.  Jamie Snowden (saddles course winner DANS LE VENT) has enjoyed a wonderful start to 2018, boasting a 26% strike rate via ten winners which is a great reward for a trainer which still (surprisingly) has to attract his fair share of inmates from my viewpoint.  SILVER KAYF and STAGE SUMMIT appear to be the potential jokers in the pack if Jamie and his team are to be denied here, the yard having secured a 35/1 double with their only two runners (at Haydock) yesterday.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Dans Le Vent (good)

 

4.10: Although TORNADO IN MILAN ‘only’ boasts a 22% strike rate down the years, the fact remains that the ratio covers nine victories, whilst the Evan Williams inmate had secured an additions sixteen medals, eleven of which were of the silver variety. Richard Johnson takes only his eighth ride for the trainer during the last five years and as all of those assignment were recorded this season, the champion jockey will be anxious to land his first success for the yard this afternoon.  For the record, the trainer/jockey bandwagon only teams up once this afternoon.  Harry Fry has saddled two of his last four runners to winning effect whereby his seven-year-old raider SPACE ODDITY might prove to be the main threat to the selection this afternoon, providing he does not unseat his partner, as was the case the last day in a two horse event!

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 10/11 market leader brought favourite backers some relief following the complete demise of the previous three jollies who had failed to claim a Placepot position between them.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

1/6—Tornado In Milan (good to soft)

 

4.45: TUGBOAT might be a 16/1 chance via the trade press quote this morning but it’s worth noting that two of his last three victories (six in total) have been gained here at Ludlow.  Not too many Hunter Chase events compete for the ‘Gold Cup’ at the respective venues but that is the case here and being a ‘spring horse’ (it is officially spring after all – could have fooled me), OPENING BATSMAN is a worthy favourite, even though his strike rate has plummeted down the years.  A winner of 5/9 races in March/April to date, it looks like being a ‘drying day’ at Ludlow this afternoon which could bring about his preferred good to soft conditions by flag fall which would be an added bonus.  GRANDIOSO (like Tugboat) has a chance to prove he in no back number just yet in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: None of the 4/5, 6/4 & 9/4 favourites have managed to add to the winning tally set by the inaugural winning 9/4 market leader four years ago.  Indeed, only the 6/4 favourite managed to add an additional Placepot position to the haul on behalf of the market leaders, which is unusual in Hunter Chase events.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

1/4—Grandioso (soft)

1/2—Opening Batsman (good to soft)

1/1—Mr Mercurial (soft)

2/5—Tugboat (good & soft)

 

5.15: Philip Hobbs is still struggling to leave behind an extremely poor set of results this winter by his high standards.  Indeed, Philip’s last fourteen runners have all been beaten whereby AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT can only be offered a Placepot chance which would not have been the case had Philip been firing in all cylinders.  One trainer’s loss is another’s gain as the saying goes, whereby Sophie Leech (BIRCH HILL) and Nick Williams (NIGHT OF SIN) might prove to be the main beneficiaries this time around.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new event on the Ludlow programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stats for Ludlow on Thursday:

It’s unfortunate that Tree Of Liberty is being quoted as a 1/33 chance in places this morning as trainer Kerry Lee boasts stats of 8/36 at the track in recent years.

That said, Kerry’s ratio since the turn of the year stands at 7/61 (a poor return by her standards) whereby the ‘mortgage’ money might best be left where it is at present.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 21st March

HAYDOCK – MARCH 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £42.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 73.2% units went through – 3/1 & 10/11*

Race 2: 79.0% of the remaining units when through – 1/14* (Win only)

Race 3: 64.1% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* & 9/4

Race 4: 18.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 16/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 42.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 & 2/1*

Race 6: 52.5% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* (Win only)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Midnight Shadow) & 3 (Think Ahead)

Leg 2 (2.40): 3 (Chicago Lady), 5 (Touch Of Velvett) & 2 (Bitumen Belle)

Leg 3 (3.15): 6 (Hills Of Dubai), 5 (Just Georgie) & 4 (Bako De La Saulaie)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Snougar), 3 (Absolutely Dylan) & 2 (Doc Carver)

Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Until Winning), 8 (Swing Hard) & 6 (Whiskey Chaser)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Calipso Collonges) & 3 (Champagne George)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: THINK AHEAD looks the only logical danger to MIDNIGHT SHADOW who is remaining very firm around the 1/2 mark at the time of writing.  Donald Whillans has his team in good form (3/6 of late) but Keyboard Gangster probably needs the favourite to find trouble negotiating the obstacles to score here whilst possibly finding Think Ahead difficult to pass at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

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2.40: The two outsiders in the trade press are going to be included in my Placepot mix today; despite their 7/1 & 25/1 quotes. There has been some support for TOUCH OF VELVETT overnight, whilst Phil Kirby (BITUMEN BELLE) has rarely had his runners in better form, with five of his last eleven runners having prevailed.  For all that, CHICAGO LADY is the more logical winner of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Haydock card.

 

3.15: Recent winners HILLS OF DUBAI and JUST GEORGIE represent some value down at the bottom of the weights, whilst BAKO DE LA SAULAIE also receives concessions from the other pair in the ‘short field’ line-up.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both favourites (5/2 & 7/4) have prevailed this far.

 

3.50: SNOUGAR is another live Donald McCain raider on the card (see stats below) and Donald’s Arakan gelding can follow up his recent soft ground Ayr victory successfully in this grade/company.  The pick of the opposition arguably includes ABSOLUTELY DYLAN and DOC CARVER.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Haydock programme.

 

4.20: Jonjo O’Neill ‘boasts’ stats of just 5/96 in the NH sector in 2018 whereby I will pass over his raider Spookydooky this afternoon in favour of UNTIL WINNING, SWING HARD and WHISKEY CHASER.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Solid Strike in a competitive (if ordinary) contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the only course winner on the Placepot card:

1/2—Whiskey Chaser (heavy)

 

4.55: This contest should be relatively plain sailing for CALIPSO COLLONGES though thanks to another success yesterday, I can afford to add a another runners into the Placepot equation in case a fencing error stops the odds on market leader in his tracks.  CHAMPAGNE GEORGE receives the alternative vote.

Favourite factor: Both 5/1 and 1/2 market leaders are still on the missing list after failing to reach the frame thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stats relating to Haydock’s card on Wednesday:

Donald McCain has only saddled more winners at Bangor (144), Sedgefield (97) and Carlisle (68) than the trainer has secured at Haydock (65) down the years.

Donald’s ratio this season at the track  is outstanding, boasting a ratio of 8/17 (47% strike rate), stats which have produced 15 points of level stake profit.

Donald saddles five runners today: Chicago Lady (2.40), Hills Of Dubai (3.15), Snougar (3.50), Whiskey Chaser (4.20) & Tailor Tom (4.55)

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 24th February

KEMPTON – FEBRUARY 24 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £207.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 6 (Master Dancer), 8 (Criq Rock) & 10 (Awesome Rosie)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (The Unit) & 1 (Cyrname)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Redicean) & 1 (Beau Gosse)

Leg 4 (3.00): 5 (Michael’s Mount), 3 (Global Citizen) & 9 (Shoal Bay)

Leg 5 (3.35): 4 (Art Mauresque), 6 (As De Mee), 10 (Loose Chips) & 1 (Theatre Guide)

Leg 6 (4.10): 2 (Kayf Blanco) & 1 (I’dliketheoption)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Seven of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-2 or more which eliminates the bottom five horses in the handicap if you take the stats seriously. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last ten renewals and narrowing the field, my ‘short list’ consists of MASTER DANCER, CRIQ ROCK and AWESOME ROSIE, even though the latter named raider hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have obliged during the last 18 years with 11 of the 23 market leaders having secured Placepot positions during the study period.  Seven recent winners scored at 33/1-22/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-10/1.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/3—Our Kaempfer (good & good to soft)

 

1.50: Paul Nicholls has saddled nine of the last twelve winners of the ‘Pendil’ whereby CYRMANE comes straight into contention, though the declaration of THE UNIT adds some spice in what would otherwise should have been a ‘gimme’ for the favourite.  THE UNIT is also entered up at Fontwell tomorrow but the lure of this prize could gain the day as I have a feeling there will not be a great deal of daylight between the pair at the jamstick.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in recent times, statistics which include eleven winners.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Pendil’:

1/1—Cyrname (soft)

 

1.50: Some of the previous winners of this ‘Adonis’ event have gone all the way to the top of their respective sectors down the years, including Well Chief, Snow Drop and Punjabi, notwithstanding the likes of Binocular, Bilboa and Penzance.  Paul Nicholls has trained four gold medallists via his last eleven representatives though his two inmates are likely to give best to REDICEAN and BEAU GOSSE on this occasion.  The first named Alan King raider receives a couple of pounds from the French representative and as REDICEAN is unbeaten after two starts at this track (which appears to suit his style of running), I’m hoping the prize will stay at home.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won this event during the last 19 years whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 9/1. 13 of the 19 market leaders finished in the money in this Triumph Hurdle trial.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Adonis’:

2/2—Redicean (good)

 

3.00: GLOBAL CITIZEN and SHOAL BAY are two interesting each way types to take into consideration in a race which might bustle up the potential Placepot dividend from my viewpoint.  I cannot visualise too many shocks in the first three races on the card but this contest could be responsible of tens of thousands of units going up in smoke, especially with Alan King (Scarlet Dragon) and Nicky Henderson (Humphrey Bogart)) having declared two newcomers into the race.  I’m swerving all the leading fancies however by adding MICHAEL’S MOUNT into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals of this Grade 2 ‘Dovecoat’ contest, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame. 13 winners have scored at odds of 6/1 or less during the study period.

 

3.35: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last eleven contests, having snared seven of the last nineteen renewals of this Grade 3 event, whilst 11 of the last 15 winners have carried 10-12 or more.  The Paul Nicholls pair ART MAURESQUE and AS DE MEE possess ticks in both of the trend boxes which makes for interesting reading. My trio against the remaining ten contenders is completed by LOOSE CHIPS (great record at the track – see stats below) with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to Theatre Guide.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/6—Theatre Guide (good to soft & soft)

2/6—Josses Hill (good & soft)

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2/3—Art Mauresque (2 x good)

1/5—Vibrato Valtat (soft)

4/8—Loose Chips (2 x soft – good – heavy)

1/1—Tintern Theatre (soft)

 

4.10: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals yet that edge (if you believe in trends) ‘bypassed’ trainers a couple of years ago.  Eight of the last ten winners carried a minimum weight of 11-8 and putting the stats and facts together, I’m gambling on I’DLIKETHEOPTION and KAYF BLANCO to land the Placepot dividend between them if we are ‘live’ going into the contest.  The latter named raider is saddled by Graeme McPherson who has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect, Graeme’s other relevant inmate having been beaten as a 50/1 chance.

 

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 17 renewals of this event were secured by market leaders.  The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 7/1.  The last twelve favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Kayf Blanco (soft)

1/2—Valseur Du Granval (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by ratios at the track this season + their five year figures profits/losses accrued on both counts:

8 runners—Alan King (3/27 – loss of 20) – 25/116 – loss of 65

8—Paul Nicholls (10/26 – loss of 4) – 37/165 – loss of 15

6—Nicky Henderson (12/38 – slight loss) – 64/224 – loss of 6

5—Colin Tizzard (1/13 – loss of 2) – 11/71 +12

3—Philip Hobbs (0/6) – 9/91 – loss of 58

3—Charlie Longsdon (0/8) – 7/58 – loss of 6

3—Jonjo O’Neill (1/12 – loss of 8) – 12/116 – loss of 32

3—Dan Skelton (0/22) – 8/106 – loss of 79

3—Ian Williams (1/5 – loss of 2) – 6/26 +8

2—Graeme McPherson (First runners at Kempton this season) – 2/13 +10

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/1) – 0/14

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/11 - slight profit) – 12/65 – loss of 19

2—Tim Vaughan (First runners at Kempton this season) – 3/41 – loss of 19

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

67 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £107.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: £657.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £1,218.00 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £36.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 2nd February

CATTERICK – FEBRUARY 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 5 (Spirit Of Rome) & 3 (Shine Baby Shine)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (The Last Day), 3 (Sam’s Gunner) & 5 (What’s The Scoop)

Leg 3 (2.25): 4 (Oak Vintage), 2 (Black Kettle) & 3 (Peppay Le Pugh)

Leg 4 (2.55): 3 (Planet Nine) & 5 (Dark Sunset)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Timon’s Tara), 1 (Same Circus) & 2 (Milly Baloo)

Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Iskabeg Lane) & 4 (Mount Oliver)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.20: Harry Whittington remains an extremely underrated trainer from my viewpoint, invariably selecting realistic targets for his inmates such as in this instance with SPIRIT OF ROME.  That said, SHINE BABY SHINE is a worthy opponent, though I’m not sure where the lads and lasses in the trade press office plucked a price of 6/5 from regarding Phil Kirby’s raider.  Perhaps they were swayed by Phil’s recent 3/8 ratio, figures which have produced level stake profits of three points. Either way, this pair should take us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Favourites come to the opening event on a five timer today.

 

1.50: There is some semi-serious money accumulating in the positive queue on the exchanges for SAM’S GUNNER at the time of writing, though THE LAST DAY should take the beating in a race which is developing into a potential match according to the potential plays/lays in the dead of night.  WHAT’S THE SCOOP is as short as 7/2 in a place as I pen this column, though 11/2 if freely available on the exchanges.  WHAT’S THE SCOOP does have one stat on his side however, given that Sue Smith has saddled four of her last seven runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Catterick card

 

2.25: Eight-year-olds have claimed five of the eight available Placepot positions to date, stats which include two (9/2 & 9/2*) winners. OAK VINTAGE is preferred to BLACK KETTLE relating to the two vintage representatives on this occasion.  PEPPAY LE PUGH is the potential joker in the pack if you are choosing between the eight-year-olds at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite finished last of the four finishers in a five runner (short field) contest before the following 10/3 market leader secured a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.  All was put right last year for investors, with the 9/2 jolly obliging.

 

2.55: Seven of the eight winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less though the pair of relevant horses on this occasion (one via a claim) are certainly up against it via the form book.  Others are preferred, especially the likes of PLANET NINE and DARK SUNSET who represent the in form yards of Rose Dobbin and Donald McCain respectively.
Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one 7/4 winner).

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Tomkevi (soft)

 

3.30: TIMON’S TARA was beaten half a length on Saturday when well fancied by yours truly.  I was on at 7/1 before Robin Dickin’s raider was backed to half of those odds before flag fall. Robin has not left time for the dust to settle and Jack Quinlan’s mount is expected to go close again. Soft ground course winners SAME CIRCUS and MILLY BALOO are feared most.  Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to back the fourth runner in the contest, namely Sheneededtherun!
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite was one of two horses which failed to complete the course in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Same Circus (soft)

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1/2—Milly Baloo (soft)

 

4.05:  ISKABEG LANE and MOUNT OLIVER represent the safest Placepot options in the finale, especially given the ‘insurance’ factor with laying off opportunities at very short prices, if the dividend looks like paying well before the ‘lucky last’.  Tommy The Rascal is the call to follow the pair home.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions (one 4/1** winner) via two renewals to date.

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Catterick card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

3 runners—Donald McCain (3/21 – loss of 6 points) – 37/168 – loss of 13

3—Sue Smith (3/15 – loss of 9 points) – 27/93 +73

2—George Bewley (First runners at Catterick this year) – 2/21 +24

2—Julia Brooke (0/4) – 0/6

2—David Dennis (First runners at Catterick this season) – 1/7 – loss of 4

2—Micky Hammond (3/26 – level on the year) – 12/151 – loss of 68 points

2—Rebecca Menzies (0/4) – 4/26 – loss of 6

2—Neil Mulholland (2/5 – loss of 1 point) – 3/10 – loss of 5

2—J A Nash (No previous runners at Catterick in the last five years)

2—Evan Williams (0/1) – 2/9 – loss of 1 point

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

39 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield: £131.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £583.30 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 6 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 19th January

LINGFIELD – JANUARY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.20 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Summer Thunder) & 4 (Red Snapper)

Leg 2 (1.25): 4 (Inuk), 2 (Avon Green) & 5 (Hornby)

Leg 3 (2.00): 1 (Jumping Jack), 6 (Bayston Hill) & 5 (Music Major)

Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Human Nature), 8 (Show Stealer) & 1 (Kachy)

Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Conkering Hero) & 2 (Strictly Art)

Leg 6 (3.40): 1 (Native Appeal) & 6 (Shakour)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: SUMMER THUNDER (1/2) and RED SNAPPER (9/2) are solid prices right across the board in the dead of night in a race which the pair look set to dominate at the business end of proceedings.  Whether the favourite would have had more petrol in the tank when returned as the beaten 13/8 market leader the last day at Kempton had he not dwelt at the start remains unknown though either way, there was precious little left to offer close home.  This race should tell us more about his resolve.  I wouldn’t care to take a price about either horse personally though from a Placepot perspective, they look home and hosed in such a weak contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Lingfield.

 

1.25: The previous six winners had all carried a minimum burden of 9-3 before last year’s 33/1 winner upset the heavily laden apple-cart.  The first race on the card will act as a marker for supporters of course winner INUK who finished just over a length adrift of Summer Thunder last time out.  Either way, 7/4 looks skinny enough about the Richard Hughes raider, albeit his Placepot claims are there for all to see.  Joseph Tuite saddled a winner yesterday whereby there will be some confidence behind AVON GREEN I’ll wager, whilst HORNBY completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Just one (6/4) favourite has obliged via seven renewals, two of which were won by horses returned at 33/1 and 10/1. Three of the seven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one beaten 1/2 favourite from a win perspective.

Course winner in the second event:

1/3--Inuk

 

2.00: There is plenty of money in the realistic positive exchange queue for both BAYSTON HILL and JUMPING JACK at the time of writing, the first named runner being closely linked with MUSIC MAJOR via recent form lines.  This trio should get us into the second half of the Placepot equation between them, albeit Miss Minuty should not be far away at the jamstick though ‘value for money’ is the worry regarding Jeremy Scott’s projected favourite.  If Colourful Career prevails, it will be yet another case of taking the wrong stance about an Ed Dunlop runner, a trainer I rarely (if ever) call the right way!

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Lingfield programme.

Course winners in the third race:

3/5—Miss Minuty

1/6—Cayuga

3/9—Music Major

1/4—Bayston Hill

 

2.30: HUMAN NATURE makes some appeal at the (bet to nothing) each way price of 5/1 this morning, with Milly Naseb still offering fair value from the saddle via her seven pound claim.  Trainer Stuart Williams is in decent enough form whilst he has saddled more A/W winners at Lingfield than at any other venue, one of two turf-less venues (alongside Chelmsford) where he boasts a level stake profit down the years.  SHOW STEALER and KACHY are feared most.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold (7/2) and Silver (5/2) medals whist securing Placepot positions.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Certificate

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1/8—Zac Brown

1/8—Kasbah

1/1—Show Stealer

 

3.05: It would come as no surprise if course winner STRICTLY ART outruns his each way price in this grade/company, albeit CONKERING HERO might still be ahead of the handicapper for a week or two.  The latter named raider is Joseph Tuite’s second runner on the card with realistic claims, with this pair preferred to Ban Shoof at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Lingfield card.

Course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Ban Shoof

1/2—Strictly Art

1/1—Conkering Hero

1/1—Oregon Gift

1/5—Barthomomew J

1/3—Sanches

 

3.40: Charlie Appleby saddled eight runners ‘out east’ at Meydan yesterday resulting in two winners.  Charlie’s raider NATIVE APPEAL should prove difficult to beat, let alone claiming a Placepot position, especially with (seemingly) only SHAKOUR to beat.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new event.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

2 runners—Michael Attwater (0/6) – 35/466 – loss of 61 points

2—David Evans (2/4 +7) – 82/603 – loss of 177

2—Joseph Tuite (0/2) – 10/102 – loss of 5

2—Charlie Wallis (0/2) – 2/47 – loss of 28

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £302.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £217.40 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new meeting

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 6th January

SANDOWN - JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £47.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Echo Watt) & 5 (Mister Chow)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Angels Antics), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 4 (Midnight Jazz)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Theo’s Charm), 6 (Bekkensfirth) & 11 (Amber Gambler)

Leg 4 (1.50): 2 (Gino Trail), 1 (Overturn Express) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (2.25): 5 (Western Ryder) & 2 (Mont Des Avaloirs)

Leg 6 (3.00): 13 (Cloudy Too), 1 (Perfect Candidate), 4 (Double Ross) & 9 (Benbens)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 8/1 or less, the previous gold medallist having scored on the behalf of the majority of bookmakers at 50/1.  The race is ‘marred’ by the inclusion of WE HAVE A DREAM who is seemingly bound elsewhere (Chepstow).  This causes chaos in attempting to get the Placepot scenario right in the first leg, especially writing this column in the dead of night when nothing is 100% certain.  If I leave Nicky’s horse out and he runs and wins as it should do, I’m in deep trouble.  If I opt for the likely second favourite ECHO WATT and Richard Hobson’s raider misses out having has thousands of units transferred onto him via Nicky’s potential ‘defector’, things will be just as bleak.  I have therefore added MISTER CHOW into the mix, leaving We Have A Dream out of the equation.  Here’s hoping…
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  That said, odds on chances were turned over from a win perspective at 1/3 (twice) and 10/11 during the period.

 

12.45: A desperately difficult event to assess, given that the eventual decision will be made via a process of elimination, rather than horses standing out from the crowd.  Philip Hobbs (Poppy Kay) has only saddled two winners via 48 runners since the end of November, whilst Dusky Legend reverts back to timber after a nasty fall the last day.  I’m opting for the other three entries from a value for money perspective, listing ANGELS ANTICS, HITHERJACQUES LADY and MIDNIGHT JAZZ in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.  Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, the other gold medallist having been returned at 9/2.

 

1.20: THEOS CHARM was ‘knocked over’ rather than having fallen the last day and Nick Gifford has found a half decent race to find compensation, should Leighton Aspell’s mount enjoy better luck in running on ground that will not cause connections too much distress.  BEKKENSFIRTH looks a typically well placed Skelton representative, whilst my alternative each way call AMBLER GAMBLER completes my trio against the remaining eight declarations.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (David Pipe trained) 10/3 favourite finished last of the six finishers three years ago, whilst the 11/4 market leader occupied the same position via nine runners twelve months later. Last year’s 7/2 market leader thankfully prevailed for the majority of punters.

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals yet trainers have ignored the ‘edge’ on this occasion.  Another corker of a Sandown event which leads to so many fine Placepot dividends, purely because of the ‘make up’ of races at this venue.  That said, the wheels would come of if a non runner was to rear its ugly head prior to flag fall but remaining positive, I’m expecting GINO TRAIL, OVERTOWN EXPRESS and ROCK ON ROCKY to get us through towards the promised land of another good dividend.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Speredek (soft)

1/2—Rock On Rocky (good to soft)

2/4—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)

 

2.25: Paul Nicholls runs just the one horse on the card whereby the chance of MONT DES AVALOIS demands respect, especially as the second of his two victories to date was gained on this type of ground at Aintree the last day.  That said, WESTERN RYDER looks the type that needs to be followed until beaten again, with Richard Johnson thirsting for winners given the Philip Hobbs stat offered earlier on the card.  By comparison, Warren Greatrex saddled nine winners during the course of December and WESTERN RYDER can continue the good run on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners via ten renewals during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Sussex Ranger (good to soft)

 

3.00: These events for veterans remain as popular as ever and at least three selections are required to ensure we secure the Placepot dividend if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  My ‘short list’ consists of CLOUDY TOO, PERFECT CANDIDATE and DOUBLE ROSS.  Sue (and Harvey) Smith are not in the habit of wasting expenses whereby the soft/heavy ground was vital for CLOUDY TOO to take his chance and his 4/7 record on heavy going ensures that the twelve-year-old was the first name on the team sheet.  The reserve nomination is awarded to BENBENS.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/1 joint favourites won the inaugural contest, though search parties were still out looking for the other beaten market leader several weeks later.  Last year’s 5/1 market leader was similarly lost without trace.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

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1/4—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/2—No Duffer (good to soft)

2/9—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

1/3—Benbens (good to soft)

2/6—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

2/5—Vino Grigio (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/5 +21)

4—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/4 +14)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

3—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom George (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – loss of 5 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/5)

2—Kerry Lee (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ben Pauling (1/4 +5)

2—Dan Skelton (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ian Williams (0/2)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wincanton: £393.80 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £43.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £57.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2018

Friday's Result :

8.45 Kempton :Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG non-runner declared lame an hour before post time....

Next up is Saturday's...

3.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner...

Why?

A chaser at the top of his game with 6 wins, 3 places and a 4th (but that was in a Listed event) from his last 10 starts, plus he's won his last four taking his chasing record to 8 from 21, which based on today's conditions also includes...

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie and 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within 30 days of his last run and 6/13 going left handed
  • 4/10 in fields of 1-7 runners and 2/4 under today's jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1 from 1 at today's trip and 1 from 1 heavy ground

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose NH handicappers are 20/106 (18.9% SR) for 63.2pts (+59.7% ROI) on heavy ground over the last 5 years, from which...

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 20/76 (26.3%) for 93.2pts (+122.7%)
  • at Chepstow : 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.77pts (+142.3%)

Plus, his handicap chasers who won LTO 4-30 days earlier are 17/64 (26.6% SR) for 27.9pts (+43.6% ROI) over the same 5 year period, including...

  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter : 17/54 (31.5%) for 37.9pts (+70.2%)
  • at 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/47 (36.2%) for 44.9pts (+95.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter over 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/40 (42.5%) for 51.9pts (+129.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/6 (50%) for 16.51pts (+275.2%)
  • on heavy : 2/4 (50%) for 7.38pts (+184.5%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/2 (100%) for 11.84pts (+592%)

And finally, Play the Ace was sired by Scorpion, whose offspring are 12/103 (11.7% SR) for 98pts (+95.1% ROI) in NH handicaps on soft or worse ground over last 5 years, including 9 wins from 47 (19.2%) for 128.5pts (+273.5%) at trips of 2m to 2m4f.

...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available in half a dozen places at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th December

KEMPTON - DECEMBER 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.70 (7 favourites - 4 winners - placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Kings Inn) & 7 (Salix)

Leg 2 (1.20): 5 (Tommy Silver) & 3 (Shantou Rock)

Leg 3 (1.55): 5 (Midnight Tune), 3 (Treackle Tart) & 4 (Jester Jet)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Politologue), 2 (Special Taira) & 4 (Forest Bihan)

Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Pilgrims Bay), 1 (Sir Ivan) & 5 (Holly Bush Henry)

Leg 6 (3.40): 3 (Kayf Grace), 9 (Eddiemaurice) & 10 (Chatez)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.45: My chest infection is failing to respond to a high intake of drugs this past week whereby I would ask you excuse a slightly more basic analysis than is often the case, albeit the selections are offered in just the same way as ever.  The reasoning behind the horses I’m opting for might not be as thoroughly explained as has been the case down the years.  Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last ten winners with the trainer opting for his Newcomer KINGS INN this time around.  I’m not convinced by the form of the Alan King runners at the time of writing, whereby I will let Redicean win without being involved if that’s the way the race pans out, preferring SALIX as an option on this occasion.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 14 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include eight winners via 13 contests.   Market leaders came to the gig on a seven timer two years ago before the 11/8 favourite was pulled up with something amiss.  The race reverted to type twelve months ago when the 5/4 favourite prevailed.

 

1.20: Five and six-year-olds have totally dominated this event and the trend will remain in place by the time I look at this race twelve months on.  TOMMY SILVER handles the ground well enough and Paul Nicholls might be the trainer to take advantage of Nicky Henderson’s nigh desertion of the second day of the meeting which is little short of overwhelming, given his dominance of the fixture of late.  A dual winner under soft conditions, SHANTOU ROCK is the obvious danger, hoping against hope that all five runners stand their ground with diluting the race down to a ‘win only’ contest whichwould bring a whole new perspective to our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites have won thus far.

 

1.55: Nine of the eleven winners have carried weights of 10-6 or more which would normally suggest that I would swerve MIDNIGHT TUNE but such is the form of Anthony Honeyball (coupled with horse acting on the ground), that I’m including the six-year-old in my Placepot mix today.  TREACKLE TART represents some value from my viewpoint, whilst JESTER JET continues to perform with plenty of enthusiasm for his in form trainer Tom Lacey.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have scored whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

2.30: SPECIAL CARGO has won two of the last three renewals of this Grade 2 prize, though PILITOLOGUE should offer plenty of resistance in the contest this year.  There is precious little between the pair on ratings though as a six-year-old, the latter named Paul Nicholls raider surely has some scope for further progress which (arguably) gives Paul’s hat trick seeker the edge.  FOREST BIHAN could be added into the mix if you came out of yesterday’s war against the layers in black figures.  Brian Ellison’s five time winner gained the easiest of his five victories to date on bad ground at Newcastle and conditions could yet have a say in the outcome of this event. Certainly if the front pair are beaten, the Placepot dividend would be well worth winning at Kempton today.  Vaniteux however seems to have lost the plot of late.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven favourites have scored whilst seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Desert Orchid’:

1/1—Politologue (good to soft)

2/2—Special Tiara (good & soft)

2/4—Vaniteux (2 x good to soft)

 

3.05: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more, whilst seven-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals with vintage representatives securing eight of the twelve available Placepot positions during the relevant period.  PILGRIMS BAY and SIR IVAN are the two seven-year-olds in the field today, whereby you just know that this self-confessed ‘anorak’ will be supporting this pair, albeit adding HOLLY BUSH HENRY into the equation with Phil Middleton boasting a wonderful 7/17 ratio in recent times.
Favourite factor: Only four of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period, stats which include two clear favourites and one successful (joint) market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

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1/2—Local Show (soft)

1/1—Pilgrims Bay (good)

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have shared eight of the ten renewals thus far, with the older raiders leading 5-3 to date.  I’m going against the vintage trends on this occasion (though that cost me Black Corton as a winner yesterday which also denied yours truly the Placepot dividend) as Nicky Henderson’s soft ground hat trick winner KAYF GROUND has surely been mapped out for this contest for some considerable time.  For the record, Nicky Henderson has easily saddled the most winners (nine in total) but has declared just this one runner on the card.  EDDIEMAURICE is offered up as the alternative each way option at a big price having run well in this event twelve months ago.  Less rain would have been ideal but even so, 20/1 is a massive price about a horse that was beaten less than two lengths last year, coming here on roughly the same terms.  CHATEZ does not represent value for money from a win perspective, for all that his Placepot chance is there for all to see.

 

Favourite factor: The last nine market leaders (joint jollies were recorded last year) have been turned over since the first two favourites obliged.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Mister Malarky (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Tuesday – followed by their number of winners at the corresponding card during the last six years:

5 runners—Alan King (winner at 9/1)

5—Paul Nicholls (6 winners ranging between 8/11* & 13/2)

4—Gary Moore (3 winners at 12/1, 4/1 & 5/2)

2—Brian Ellison

2—Tom George (2 winners at 8/1 & 3/1*)

2—Chris Gordon

2—Charlie Longsdon

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wetherby: £34.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £103.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2017

Boxing Day's Result :

3.25 Market Rasen: Focaccia @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/2 Prominent on outside, driven to lead after 3 out, headed next, weakened before last, tailed off.

No joy on a busy day, next up is Wednesday's...

1.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner...

And an 8 yr old gelding who has already won 8 of his 21 (38.1% SR) starts over fences, including 6 wins and 3 places from 10 over the last six months and has won each of his last four!

His 8/21 chasing record includes...

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie, 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within a month of his last run, 6/13 going left handed
  • 6/12 this year, 2/4 under jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1/1 on heavy and 1/1 at today's trip but stays (and has won) over further

His trainer Peter Bowen has a good record running horses in tough conditions, as his heavy ground handicappers are 21/106 (19.8% SR) for 65.6pts (+61.9% ROI) over the last five years and amongst those 106 mudlarks...

  • those racing over 2m to 3m are 21/76 (27.6%) for 95.6pts (+125.8%)
  • those running here at Chepstow are 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.8pts (+142.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/11 (63.6%) for 27.2pts (+247.5%) : a small but astonishing sample!

More generally over the last couple of years, Peter's runners have also achieved the following of interest/relevance...

  • chasers are 51/233 (21.9%) for 116.5pts (+50%)
  • hcp chasers are 44/215 (20.5%) for 103.3pts (+48%)
  • LTO winners are 22/92 (23.9%) for 36pts (+39.1%)
  • chasers who won LTO are 14/49 (28.6%) for 30.2pts (+61.6%)
  • hcp chasers who won LTO are 14/47 (29.8%) for 32.2pts (+68.5%), of which those running on heavy ground are 3 from 3 for 12.08pts (+402.8%).

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports, Coral, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Boxing Day.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £89.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.05): 7 (Whatswrongwithyou), 3 (Just A Sting) & 1 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (12.40): 3 (Ellens Way), 7 (The Wicket Chicken) & 1 (Whauduhavtoget)

Leg 3 (1.10): 6 (Connetable), 8 (Monbeg Oscar) & 1 (Beat That)

Leg 4 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 4 (North Hill Harvey)

Leg 5 (2.20): 6 (Jenkins), 10 (Exitas) & 8 (Fidux)

Leg 6 (2.55): 3 (Fox Norton) & 5 (Politologue)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.05: Novice hurdle races produce the best record in the sport for winning favourites, and this opening event is a great example given the results during the last 18 years (see below).   Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the last eleven renewals between them, whilst Nicky Henderson has secured seven of the last eight renewals, whereby the 14/1 starting price of the winner three years ago defied belief!  I know that trends are there to be shot at and if it were the perfect science, I would not have to work every day for a living.  That said, I'll take 14/1 winners any day of the week, especially given that Nicky's second (more fancied) runner finished second at 3/1, creating a 53/1 forecast.  Don't always believe that I am in the minority for harping on about trainer trends, as the tote forecast (Exacta) paid less than twenty pounds, whereby many Tote punters homed in on Nicky's great record in the race.  Nicky would have had any number of options for this opening event whereby the declaration of WHATSWRONGWITHYOU jumps off the page.  If the four and five-year-olds are to dominate again however, the chances of the four-year-old representatives JUST A STING (Harry Fry saddled the winner last year) and AINCHEA are there to be seen via the form book.

Favourite factor: Favourites have a great record in this event, having won 12 of the last 18 renewals, with 15 of the successful horses having been returned at odds of 7/2 or less.  16/18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, investors from a win perspective should note that favourites have been beaten at 4/6, 8/11 and 4/5 within the last 15 years.

 

12.40: Handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum trip offer the worst record for favourites under either code of the ‘sport of kings’ year in and year out.  Those were words I opened with two years ago and you can see the result for yourself in the 'favourite factor' section below.  Five-year-olds have secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include the trio of winners at 14/1, 5/1 & 7/2.  Four of the five representatives this year seemingly hold chances of extending the trend, the pick of which will hopefully prover to be ELLENS WAY, THE WICKET CHICKEN and WHATDUHAVTOGET.
Favourite factor: The inaugural contest set up a great Placepot dividend (£1,939.70), with the frame being filled by horses returned at 14/1-25/1-8/1.  Only one of the joint 9/2 market leaders finished in the frame (without winning) the following year, though the 7/2 market leader prevailed twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Loves Destination (heavy)

 

1.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled six winners on this corresponding card during the last five years whereby the chance of CONNETABLE is respected, especially as Paul’s winners scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-13/2-5/1.  Paul has secured three of the last nine renewals where his five-year-old gelding could be the value for money call, especially as vintage representatives have won three of the last six contests.  The vintage stat also brings MONBEG OSCAR into the equation, with the highly rated five pound claimer Mitchell Bastyan in the saddle.  Jonjo O’Neill will be slightly embarrassed by his 2/50 strike rate at Sandown during the last five years I’ll wager, whereby his only runner on the card (Terry The Fish) is swerved by yours truly, preferring BEAT THAT who represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled no less than 11 winners (yes eleven) at this corresponding (Saturday) meeting during the last five years!
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), stats which include three winning favourites.  Seven of the last nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Connetable (soft)

1.45: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this prestigious ‘Henry VIII’ Novice Chase event with the trainer represented by five-year-old Capitaine on this occasion. Vintage representatives have won five of the last seven contests whereby once again, Paul has shown his appreciation for statistics which have not let him down so far in his career!  That said, this looks a tough (and intriguing) renewal, with BRAIN POWER, FINIAN’S OSCAR and NORTH HILL HARVEY all boasting obvious claim for one reason or another.  There is a nagging notion that this event might just run the feet off Finian’s Oscar, whereby I will opt for the other pair, without totally discarding the chance of the fifth runner in the field (Sceau Royal) in any shape of form.  A typically wonderful Sandown event which demonstrates perfectly why this racecourse runs Cheltenham so close to being my favourite NH venue.
Favourite factor: 15 of the last 18 winners have won at odds of 7/2 or less (14/1, 13/2 and 5/1 winners in three of the last four years spoil the trend to a fashion), statistics which includes seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (soft)

2.20: 13 of the last 18 contests have been won by horses carrying weights of 10-13 or less, whilst four-year-olds have claimed six of the last sixteen renewals.  FIDUX is the only runner in the field with ticks in both boxes (thanks to a jockey claim), though Alan King has been struggling for gold medallists of late (recent stats of 1/32) whereby JENKINS is preferred in terms of naming the actual winner.  Nicky Henderson looks to have laid out his five-year-old Azamour gelding for this contest and with the trainer having saddled four of the last seven winners, JENKINS is my each way nap on the card.  A winner of three of his six races to date (2/4 over timber), JENKINS looks to have plenty going for him and the 7/1 quotes by Betfair and Paddy Power make for attractive reading.  I do not anticipate that price being available by the time that the phones start ringing in their respective offices later this morning.  Connections might have most to fear from EXITAS if taking Alan King’s recent negative winning record into account.  Crossed My Mind is the ‘unknown factor’ in the field but I would rather stick closer to home given the potential of Jenkins, especially as Nicky won this with a particularly progressive type in Brain Power twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 favourites have been beaten in this Listed hurdle event, though 13 of the last 16 winners have been returned in single figures.  Eight of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/1—Exitas (soft)

2.55: Three of the last five winners of this event have gone on to win the 'Queen Mother' at Cheltenham in the same season, whilst last year’s Gold Medallist was aimed at the ‘Ryanair’ at the festival and Un De Sceaux duly obliged.  Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last 17 winners of the ’Tingle Creek’ (including seven of the last 12) and the stable is represented by POLITOLOGUE on this occasion, though it would a big surprise if FOX NORTON failed to become the fourth seven-year-old to win this event in what would be the last nine years.  Colin Tizzard’s raider put on a masterclass at Cheltenham the last day despite looking as though the run would put him 100% right and whatever scope Paul’s horse has for improvement, it’s unlikely to upset favourite backers here, albeit I expect POLIOLOGUE to account for the other five entries, the best of which should prove to be CHARBEL is you want to have a speculative each way punt to small stakes.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won this ‘Tingle Creek’ event, whilst the last 17 winners all scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Our Mad (2 x soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their five year totals of winners at this corresponding ‘Tingle Creek’ meeting:

7—Paul Nicholls (6 winners)

5—Nicky Henderson (11)

4—Alan King (2)

3—Harry Fry (1)

3—Neil Mulholland

3—Dan Skelton

3—Colin Tizzard

2—Kim Bailey

2—Chris Gordon

2—Phil Middleton (1)

2—Jeremy Scott

2—Evan Williams

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £637.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chepstow: £91.80 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Wetherby: £57.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverh’ton: £236.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 22nd November

KEMPTON - NOVEMBER 22

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (4.10): 3 (Plead), 4 (Jive Talking) & 2 (Hairdryer)

Leg 2 (4.40): 2 (Dashing Dusty), 4 (Roman Spinner) & 2 (Give Em A Clump)

Leg 3 (5.10): 10 (Salute The Soldier) & 5 (Flavius Titus)

Leg 4 (5.40): 6 (Qaysar) & 2 (Crack On Crack On)

Leg 5 (6.10): 1 (Blue Mist) & 8 (Tanseeq)

Leg 6 (6.40): 9 (Accidental Agent), 13 (Second Thought) & 2 (Khafoo Shememi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

4.10: With poor racing generally in place today, I thought I would offer this all weather meeting to offer a chance of a ‘get out of jail free’ card, if the NH sport earlier in the day has not worked out well for you.  Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured 21 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include all eight winners.  The top five horses in the betting at the time of writing hail from the superior weight trend, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PLEAD (if getting away on terms on this occasion), JIVE TAKING and HARIDRYER who deserves a win following some half decent placed efforts of late.  SOLVEIG’S SONG won this event at 33/1 last year and there will be horses at similar prices with less chance of winning running at Kempton this evening.  Holly Doyle negates the fact that Steve Woodman’s raider is running ‘out of the handicap’, to a fashion at least.
Favourite factor: All eight favourites have finished out with the washing thus far with bookmakers laughing all the way to the bank with gold medallists having scored at prices ranging between 8/1 and 33/1.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/11—Tee It Up Tommo

2/11—Buckland Beau

2/16—Biotic

2/11—Solveig’s Song

 

4.40:  Jamie Osborne did not enjoy the best of years on the turf front but the popular trainer has got his act together of late, boasting recent stats of 7/25, a ratio which offers a level stake profit of 46 points during the period.  It’s significant (accordingly) that Jamie has declared three runners on the card, the first of which is DASHING DUSTY who has been gelded going into his first handicap assignment.  Others for the mix include course winner ROMAN SPINNER and GIVE EM A CLUMP who hails from the David Evans camp which has posted a winner on each of the last two days.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (4/1 & 11/4**) winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Secretario

1/2—Roman Spinner

 

5.10: The BHA are at it again by naming this as a new race because of its ‘novice status’ even though the distance, class classification and everything else is the same as it has been since the Doomsday Book was signed!  I am leaving my stats in though obviously, you can decide whether to take any notice of my findings down the years. SALUTE THE SOLDIER has been the subject of overnight support in no uncertain terms and given the good record of favourites in this event down the years (see below), Clive Cox’s Sepoy colt is the first name on the team sheet, especially with a really good Newbury debut effort under his belt.  FLAVIUS TITUS is the obvious danger given that jungle drums have only conspicuous relating to the newcomers by their absence.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

5.40: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton card, whereby the same stats and facts apply if you ignore the BHA ‘brief’.   I’m quick to jump on the backs of the lads/lasses in the trade press office who get the prices base over apex on occasions but their 8/13 quote about Richard Hannon’s once raced Choisir colt QAYSAR looks to be spot on after an excellent Newmarket effort on debut last month.  Nothing else is jumping off the page at the time of writing whereby I am offering CRACK ON CRACK ON as the alternative each way play in the race, despite the fact that he has plenty to find with the selection via Newmarket form.  If Clive Cox only had two runners travelling today I could have thought that his Havana Gold colt was merely keeping Salute The Soldier company in the horsebox, but that is not the case.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

6.10: The same  BHA comment applies to this juvenile event, whereby I will simply let you decide who is right/wrong!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that BLUE MIST has a wide enough draw to limit enthusiasm relating to his latest 5/4 quote which is backed by exchange rates at the time of writing.  Equally however, it is nigh impossible to leave Roger Charlton Makfi gelding out of the Placepot equation.  The additional furlong here might help TANSEEQ improve on his latest Kempton seven furlong effort, albeit not much improvement would be needed to reach the frame here I suspect.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/13 & 10/11) successful market leaders.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Blue Mist

1/1--Indiscretion

 

6.40: The last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones though unfortunately on this occasion, no horses are eliminated via a defection in the ranks.  Onwards and upward by informing that three-year-olds have won three of the last six contests whereby unbeaten course winners ACCIDENTAL AGENT, SECOND THOUGHT and KHAFOO SHEMENI are entrusted with my Placepot selections to hopefully secure the dividend.  The trio is listed in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this Listed event following eleven renewals, though three of the last eight market leaders did at least secur toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Khafoo Shememi

1/1—Keystroke

1/1—Accidental Agent

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1/1—Second Thought

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday followed by their number of winners (where relevant) at the corresponding meeting during the last five years:

4 runners—Andrew Balding (1)

4—Richard Hannon

3—Clive Cox

3—Richard Fahey

3—William Haggas

3—Rod Millman

3—Jamie Osborne

2—George Baker (2)

2—Michael Bell

2—Roger Charlton

2—Simon Dow

2—John Gosden

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Richard Hughes

2—William Muir (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—David O’Meara

2—Hugo Palmer

2—Daniel Steele

2—James Tate

2—Roger Varian

2—Ed Walker

2—Archie Watson

2—Ian Williams

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £189.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Hexham: Meeting abandoned

Warwick: £13.60 – 6 winners – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 8th November

NOTTINGHAM - NOVEMBER 8

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 4 (Blacklooks), 10 (Burn Some Dust) & 11 (Odds On Oli)

Leg 2 (1.05): 9 (Rhode Island), 13 (Young Rascal) & 12 (Victory Chime)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Glencadam Master), 2 (Best Blue) & 7 (Nibras Galaxy)

Leg 4 (2.15): 4 (Gracious John) & 3 (Clem Fandango)

Leg 5 (2.50): 10 (Fantasy Keeper), 4 (Quick Look) & 6 (Van Gerwen)

Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (Ebitda) & 10 (Sarabi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: I wrote a book called ‘Nursery Class’ many years ago at which time I suggested that the majority of Richard Fahey’s two-year-old handicap winners carried a maximum of nine stones – and little changed down the years. I’m not suggesting that ODDS ON OLI can actually win this event though at around the 18/1 mark, Joe Fanning’s mount could represent some value for money from a Placepot perspective.  At the other end of the market, both BURN SOME DUST and BLACKLOOKS won last time out which at least offered proof that they have what it takes to win races, something that arounds two third of the horses in training fail to achieve.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

1.05: 21 of the last 23 winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which is a terrific record, especially at this stage of the season when results can go ‘belly up’.  Money has arrived overnight for the likes of RHODE ISLAND, YOUNG RASCAL and VICTIORY CHIME and with jungle drums failing to beat for any of the other contenders, this trio will carry my Placepot cash.  The latter named pair might have t best of the draw on this occasion.

Favourite factor: 22 of the 31 market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include 10 successful favourites.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – the most recent result offered first):

14-1-2 (17 ran-good)

11-4-15 (13 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-soft)

10-11-9 (11 ran-soft)

9-10-15-14 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-3-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-2-12 (9 ran-soft)

11-9-6 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-8 (12 ran-soft)

6-8-3 (13 ran-soft)

3-6-9 (17 ran-soft)

8-15-14 (17 ran-soft)

8-3-14 (14 ran-heavy)

10-5-12 (16 ran-soft)

5-8-11 (15 ran-soft)

6-8-4 (17 ran-heavy)

11-6-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-3-6 (12 ran-good to soft)

12-9-14 (14 ran-soft)

1 & 10 D/H-12 (13 ran-heavy)

2-5-12 (13 ran-heavy)

14-4-2 (15 ran-heavy)

17-6-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

6-3-2 (16 ran-good to soft)

 

1.40: BEST BLUE and NIBRAS GALAXY offer some hope against the majority of the shorter priced contenders I’ll wager, whilst GLENCADAM MASTER (like Rhode Island in the first division of this contest) looks another John Gosden type for the short list.  Any money for GREAT BEYOND could be worth heeding later in the day.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply.

 

2.15: GRACIOUS JOHN was the first name mentioned in the analysis for the first running of this event twelve months ago before going on to score at 12/1.  Such generous odds will not be in place this time around but with CLEM FANDANGO being the only horse in the line up that I genuinely fear, ‘John’ is included in my Placepot mix again.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished just out of the money in fourth place.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Perfect Pasture (good)

1/2—Gracious John (good)

2/7—Classic Pursuit (good & good to soft)

 

2.50: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the six contests to date.  Recent winners QUICK LOOK and VAN GERWEN boast ticks in both of the trend boxes, whilst soft ground winner FANTASY KEEPER completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (11/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Musharrif

1/3—Fantasy Keeper (soft)

1/1—Jabbarockie (good to soft)

 

3.20: Scott Dixon has raided this venue to good effect this season whereby if you want to include an each alternative each way/Placepot option against hot favourite EBITDA, Scott’s SARABI would be the call.  Sarabi represents the four-year-old vintage which has claimed six of the last eleven renewals.  That said, EBITDA is the logical call from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the only (7/2) favourite obliged in this event via the last eleven contests. That said, nne of the relevant winners scored at a top price of 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/23—Ambitious Icarus (good – good to soft – soft)

1/5—Coiste Bodhar (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Wednesday - followed by 2017 stats at the track and profit/loss to level stakes:

4 runners—John Gosden (3/18 – loss of 4 points)

3—Michael Appleby (7/57 – loss of 9 points)

3—Ralph Beckett (2/10 +4)

3—Scott Dixon (4/12 +32)

3—Mick Easterby (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—John Gallagher (1/7 +4)

3—William Haggas (2/11 +3)

2—Karl Burke (2/21 +13)

2—Roger Charlton (0/6)

2—Clive Cox (6/22 +2)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)

2—David Evans (2/18 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (0/20)

2—Roger Varian (4/23 – loss of 13 points)

2—Ed Walker (0/10)

2—Ian Williams (0/10)

+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

85 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £369.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £641.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Kempton: £60.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced