Tag Archive for: Chepstow racecourse

Racing Insights, Monday 26/08/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.47 Southwell
  • 3.05 Downpatrick
  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 3.40 Downpatrick
  • 3.52 Epsom
  • 6.05 Southwell

I was almost tempted by the Amateur Derby, but the best (on paper, anyway) of these looks like being the 3.35 Chepstow, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to soft ground...

...where every single runner is up in class and both Kalama Sunshine and Fact or Fable come here on the back of a win with the former having five wins and two runner-up finishes from her last seven starts including finishes of 1121 over course and distance.

Stockpyle, Valkyrian, Believe You Me, Racing Demon and Fact Or Fable have all won at least two of their last five runs, but Magical Merlin and Macs Dilemma are winless in eight and eleven respectively.

Lady Flora is the sole 3yo in the race and receives a 6lbs allowance for that and like half of the field will be ridden by a claimer. Trainer John O'Shea sends three runners here and aside from Racing Demon who returns from a 53-day break, the field have all had a race this month.

Magical Merlin and Bantry have yet to win at track or trip and of the ten previous course winners here at Catterick, only Believe You Me, Macs Dilemma and Soi Dao are without a course and distance win, although the latter has won over this trip elsewhere, but she's only one from eight over the last couple of years as referenced by Instant Expert...

...where the top half of the card looks stronger than the bottom and Macs Dilemma, Letter of The Law and Bantry all look weak with the latter also having a terrible place record...

...and I think I want to be focusing upon these runners today...

Our Draw Analyser says that off an albeit small sample of races that those drawn more centrally have performed best, but it is a small sample so we must tread carefully...

...whilst the Pace Analysis of those races says that horses who race further forward have the best chances of making the frame and going on to win...

...with the pace/draw heat map looking like this...

...and this field's most recent outings suggest we could have a bit of a burn up...

Of the seven runners I highlighted from Instant Expert, I'm going to cross Racing Demon off after seeing that he's likely to be held up. A quick glance back at the pace/draw heat map says that ideally we'd have a mid-drawn front runner (Valkyrian), a mid-drawn prominent runner (Lady Flora) and a high-drawn leader (Stockpyle) and seeing as we have one of each, we'll take them to the final analysis.

Summary

Instant Expert, Draw, Pace and the Pace/Draw combinations have brought us to a three-runner shortlist of Valkyrian, Lady Flora and Stockpyle, who I think all have a great chance of at least making the frame. I'd also like to throw Kalama Sunrise's name into the equation/hat, because even though she doesn't appear to fit well here in stall 2, she'll certainly be up with the pace, she did score well on Instant Expert, she's in great form and is the track/trip specialist.

Kalama Sunrise is, therefore my marginal pick just ahead of the excellent Lady Flora. These two should be too good for the others, but Stockpyle & Valkyrian might have a good battle for minor honours. No odds were available at 3.55pm Sunday, but with the bookies paying four places here, if we can get 8/1 or bigger about any of these four, a nice E/W bet could be the ticket.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 08/08/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 5.52 Leopardstown
  • 6.15 Sandown
  • 6.30 Chepstow
  • 7.52 Leopardstown

...from which, I'm going to look at race 17 of this year's Racing League, the 6.30 Chepstow, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

This looks like a really open contest with only fast finishing Alpine Girl coming here off the back of a win. She scored at Salisbury almost four weeks ago and now seeks a hat-trick having also won at Lingfield in June. Ingra Tor, Muscika and Gis A Sub all had top 3 finishes last time out.

Dolly Gray, Connies Rose and Havana Rum have all won two of their last six outings and Gis A Sub was a winner two starts ago, but Gisburn, Ingra Tor, Eminency, Coup de Force and Muscika are on losing runs of 9, 12, 13 , 7 and 12 races respectively.

Gisburn does drop down a class here, though and Eminency is down two grades, so that might help their causes, but both Alpine Girl and Gis A Sub are up two classes here. Havana Rum is denoted as being a fast finisher and at just seven days since his last race, he's the quickest turned back out, but all ten have raced at least once in the last seven weeks.

All ten have also won at least once over today's trip, but only two have run/won here at Chepstow. Coup de Force is 1 from 1 here, having scored over 5f on just her second career start way back in June 2021, whilst Connies Rose is 5 from 18 at this venue comprising of 3 wins from 6 at 5f, 1 win from 4 at 7f and 1 win from 8 over this 6f course and distance. She has also made the frame in 6 of her 13 defeats here and her last four results here read 3213 and those are included in the 2-year form shown on Instant Expert below...

..and from a mediocre set of win figures, Connies Rose probably edges it and she's certainly one of the ones standing out on the place data too. Gis A Sub has had enough chances at class/trip already and I suspect another failure to make the frame here. From a win perspective alone, many of these have struggled to get home over today's trip, but with most  of them having decent place results, it might just be a poor race.

On the face of it, there doesn't appear to be a huge advantage from stall positioning...

...but closer inspection suggests that if you were given a choice, you'd take stalls 1 or 2...

..but a look at the pace/draw heat map leads me to believe that pace will be more key to the result here than the draw will...

...and our Pace Analyser backs this thought up...

So, we need to try to work out where the pace in the race might be and if we've got a front-runner drawn low or high, then they should be in the mix. We do this by looking back over the field's last few races...

...where the low-drawn Connies Rose is likely to lead the way.

Summary

This is a tricky contest to call, but Connies Rose is the course specialist and scored best on Instant Expert. She's got a low draw and will set the tempo of the race and I think if all goes to plan, she could at least nick a place from the front. Her results this year (282212314) suggest that she generally fails to hang on for the win, but seven places from nine says she could be an E/W option and at 14/1 with bet365 at 4.45pm on Wednesday, that looks very tempting indeed.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/10/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with Issuing Authority of most immediate interest whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 1.25 Limerick
  • 4.10 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Limerick
  • 6.00 Southwell

Supremely West from The Shortlist runs in one of the day's four joint highest-rated (it's a fairly low bar mind)races, the 2.45 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

My initial thoughts were that main players here would be Cuthbert Dibble, Supremely West and Jaminska with all three relatively unexposed in handicap company; Supremely West in on handicap debut (as is Heros de Romay), whilst Cuthbert Dibble and Supremely West both make just their second start in handicaps, as does Jack In The Box who will be blinkered/tongue tied for the first time today.

We've also got plenty of class movement here with the top three on the card Cuthbert Dibble, Heros de Romay and Supremely West all up one level from Class 4, as is the 13yr old veteran Totterdown, whilst bottom weight Jaminska drops two classes a month after finishing third of six in a Listed race at Taunton. Heros de Romay was also third last time out, having finished 121 in his previous three career runs. Supremely West was a runner-up at Southwell after winning five of hiss previous six outings (inc 3 x NHF wins), whilst our sole LTO winner, Cuthbert Dibble now returns from almost ten months off the track since winning two of his last three.

Current Mood has been off even longer at 404 days (the remainder have all raced in the last seven weeks), but has already won a Class 4, 2m½f Novice hurdle here on soft ground with Heros de Romay's heavy ground course and distance win on his penultimate start being the only other Chepstow success from this group, mind you four of these have never been here before, but all bar Current Mood, Totterdown and Jaminska have already managed to win over a similar trip, according to Instant Expert...

Bashful Boy's record at Class 3 is poor at 1 from 13 and that's the biggest concern from the above graphic. We've three heavy ground winners, of course, which is a positive, whilst Cuthbert Dibble and Supremely West are 2 from 3 and 3 from 3 respectively on soft ground, The place data suggests we focus on the top half of the card which consists of the three I though most likely plus Heros de Romay...

The key to success here at Chepstow on heavy ground has been to be up with the pace...

...with those leading or racing prominently claiming 77.8% of the wins and 68.1% of the placers from just 48.4% of the runners with those willing to set the pace faring best of all, which based on this field's last four outings...

...would be a further blow to Current Mood, Jack In The Box and Bashful Boy. The veteran Totterdown in the most likely pacemaker, but at just one win in four years I can't see him hanging on now up in both trip and class.

Summary

My initial thoughts were that main players here would be Cuthbert Dibble, Supremely West and Jaminska and I've not seen anything to dissuade me. Heros de Romay scored well on Instant Expert and likes to get on with things, so he's also in the mix.

Cuthbert Dibble is the 2/1 favourite with Hills (the only book open at 3.30pm Monday), but that looks short about a horse off the track for ten months, up in class, winless on heavy ground and who tends to be held up off the pace. He might well end up being the best of this whole group and might also win this race, but 2/1 is too short for me and I think the in-form Supremely West from The Shortlist offers much better value at 5/1.

He won by 12 lengths and 5 lengths at Carlisle and Sedgefield in the autumn before finishing second at Southwell last time out, running into one who looks like he might go places. he's 1 from 1 on heacvy, 3 from 3 on soft and has finished 12112 in five starts under today's jockey. I thought he might have been around 4/1 or even shorter, so win or lose I think there's a bit of value at 5's.

Of the other two in the top half of the card, I marginally prefer Jaminska, the market marginally prefers Heros de Romay but with them both around the 7/2 to 4/1 mark we agree that there's little between them and neither are E/W options! After these four at 5/1 and shorter, the other half of the field are 11/1 and longer, but I'm struggling to make an E./W case for any!



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/01/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Fairyhouse
  • 3.50 Fairyhouse
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

None of those UK races above are any better than Class 4, mind you there's only one race tomorrow that is, so we're going to look at it! It's the 3.10 Chepstow, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...

Minella Blueway won last time out after finishing third then second in his other outings under Rules and now makes a handicap debut carrying bottom weight. Lowry's Bar makes a second handicap outing as he attempts to defend his perfect three from three record over hurdles, whilst Wild Max comes here on a hat-trick, having won three of his last four, albeit all over fences. He hasn't raced for 572 days and it's 667 days since he tackled a hurdle, so he might well need the run here. Elsewhere Pentland Hills is two from six and Uncle Bert is two from seven but Espoir de Romay and Ree Okka are winless in nine and seven respectively.

We know Wild Max has been away for a good while, bu the others have all raced at least once in the last four to eight weeks and both Espoir de Romay and Uncle Bert drop down a class today with Minella Blueway going the opposite direction.

Pentland Hills and Wild Max have both yet to win at track and/or trip, but Espoir de Romay and Uncle Beret have both already won over similar distances. Lowry's Bar's second run/win over hurdles was here over 2m½f back in November, whilst the bottom two in the weights, Ree Okka and Minella Blueway are both course and distance winners, the latter doing so last time out four weeks ago, for which he is raised 3lbs as you'll see below on Instant Expert...

...which suggests that most of these will be at home on the soft ground. Pentland Hills is some 11lbs below his last winning mark and ran really well over this trip to defy a 336-day absence to finish second at Doncaster last time out. He was beaten by less than 2 lengths that day and although up 2lbs for that run, the booking of a 10lb claimer makes him really dangerously weighted. He normally races quite prominently (was hampered by a faller at the second two starts ago, though) and looks like being one of the main chasers behind confirmed front-runner Wild Max...

...if 'recent' efforts are anything to go by, that is. There's always the possibility of the field letting Wild Max have an easy lead in the expectation that he'll fold late on after such a long absence and our Pace Analyser does suggest that those racing prominently would fare best from a win perspective...

Summary

Personally I think this will boil down to form and become a contest between Lowry's Bar and Minella Blueway. The former is up 6lbs and up 4f in trip, whilst the latter won here over course and distance. He's also up in weight, but only by 3lbs and is up in class, but did canter home with plenty in hand from 2 out on his way to an 11-length win and although I expect it to be tight, I'll take Minella Blueway to beat Lowry's Bar here.

We're not getting rich taking a 3/1 shot to beat a 2/1 favourite, sadly, but that's how I see it. Of the rest, I agree with the market, as I see the 9/2 3rd fav Pentland Hills as the danger off a low weight and after a good comeback run.



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2024 Welsh Grand National Trends

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Run, this year (2023) on Thursday December 27th, the Welsh Grand National has always been a big highlight over the festive period.

With 3m 5 ½f to cover at Chepstow racecourse then stamina is a ‘must-have’ requirement when it comes to finding the winner, while if you like your trends you might want to know that 19 of the 22 winners have been aged 9 or younger - plus, 18 of the last 22 winners carried 11-0 or less.

Here at Geegeez, we look back at the recent winners and give you all the key trends - use these to help find the best profiles of past winners and apply these to the 2024 Welsh Grand National.

Recent Welsh National Winners

2023 - NASSALAM (9/2 jfav)
2022 - THE TWO AMIGOS (16/1)
2021 – IWILLDOIT (13/2)
2020 - SECRET REPRIEVE (5/2 fav)
2019 – POTTERS CORNER (8/1)
2018 – ELEGANT ESCAPE (3/1 fav)
2017 – RAZ DE MAREE (16/1)
2016 – NATIVE RIVER (11/4 fav)
2015 – MOUNTAINOUS (9/1)
2014 – EMPEROR’S CHOICE (9/1)
2013 -  MOUNTAINOUS (20/1)
2012 – MONBEG DUDE (10/1)
2011 – LE BEAU BAI (10/1)
2010 – SYNCHRONISED (5/1)
2009 – DREAM ALLIANCE (20/1)
2008 – NOTRE PERE (16/1)
2007 – MIKO de BEAUCHENE (13/2)
2006 – HALCON GENELARDAIS (7/1)
2005 – L’AVENTURE (14/1)
2004 – SILVER BIRCH (10/3 fav)
2003 – BINDAREE (10/1)
2002 – MINI SENSATION (8/1)

Welsh National Betting Trends

22/22 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
22/22 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
22/22 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
20/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
16/22 – Aged 8 or younger
15/22– Carried 10-8 or less in weight
15/22 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
12/22 – Irish bred
12/22 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
9/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Unplaced favourites
8/22 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
7/22 – Had run in the Welsh National before
7/22 – French bred
5/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainers Venetia Williams and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the Welsh Grand National twice each
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 9/1

 

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Racing Insights, Thursday 10/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.50 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Nottingham
  • 6.15 Sandown
  • 7.00 Chepstow
  • 8.05 Sligo

...the best of which (on paper) would appear to be race 11 of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Gordon Grey is a four-race maiden, but came close to getting off the mark on his handicap debut (2nd crack today) last time out and Feel The Need has failed to win any of his last eight starts after scoring on just his second outing. The other six runners here have at least one win from their last five efforts with Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker (hcp debut here) and bottom weight I Still Have Faith all winning last time out; the latter actually comes here on a hat-trick whilst Totnes is 3 from 7.

She's Hot is the only runner to have raced at Class 3 last time around, as Shahbaz, Totnes, Feel The Need and Old Smoke are all up from Class 4, whilst Gordon Greym Miss Dolly Rocker And I Still Have Faith are up two classes.

It's a handicap debut for Miss Dolly Rocker and a 2nd handicap run for Gordon Grey, of course, whilst Feel The Need wears a hood for the first time. None of these have been away from the track for much more than a month, so we should have no rustiness, She's Hot is turned back out the quickest, but even she will have had nine days rest.

None of the field have won (or even ran) here at Chepstow before, but Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker and I Still Have Faith have all won over today's trip, even if Totnes did it on the A/W.

Sadly, our free feature, Instant Expert, doesn't have much relevant data, but this is what we do have under expected conditions...

None of the field have won at this grade before, so the rise in class most face might not be too relevant here and I think we might get a better picture if we look at their records in a lower grade...

...where Totnes looks strong albeit on A/W form. Shahbaz hasn't won any of his last four, but remains 5lbs above his last winning mark, although he was a runner-up only beaten by a neck off this mark in his last race. Mind you, he won't have Frankie Dettori driving him home today, which makes life tougher. Gordon Grey, however, is eased 3lbs despite only going down late by three quarters of a length a fortnight ago, which might give him a chance here. He's drawn relatively low in stall 3, but it would appear that stall 5 and higher is the place to be...

...with those races above tending to be a bit of a struggle for hold-up horses...

...and that doesn't bode well for a few of this field, especially Feel The Need and I Still Have Faith, if their past four outings are anything to go by...

...making our pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

On form, it was Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker, and I Still Have Faith who appeared to be the pick of the pack, Totnes, I Still Have Faith and possibly She's Hot were the takeaways from Instant Expert. I Still Have Faith, Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot seem best favoured by the draw, whilst the pace/draw heat map looked like better news for Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot.

As is often the case with the totting-up procedure, you get the same names mentioned over and over and five horses are listed above, so I'm going to rule Feel The Need, Gordon Grey and Old Smoke out of the running. The issue now is that any of the five remaining could go on and win, but there's no stand-out candidate.

The 4pm market had my five as follows...

...and the most obvious bet for me would be to back She's Hot on an Each Way basis. She's back up in trip (was a runner-up the last time she tackled 1m2f) and she's not stepping up in class.

Shahbaz looks short at 3/1 with only 1 win in 10, but a 60% place strike rate, he's more of a placer than a winner for me. Totnes is 3 from 4 on the A/W, but his Flat form reads 8433 (placed just once).

I Still Have Faith could be the one to back as the winner, he's in great form, gets weight all round, has a good jockey on board, is drawn higher enough, but might need to press on sooner, whilst Miss Dolly Rocker might also surprise one or two here. She has been more consistent than spectacular, but won last time out on soft ground, gets the trip and is drawn in stall 6. She might get an easy lead and if that happens, she's not a bad option for the places, if I could get better than 13/2.

Shortly after publishing the post, 9/1 became available about Miss Dolly Rocker, so a small E/W bet is an option.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 25/02/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers solely on the 5-year course form filter as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.35 Fairyhouse
  • 1.57 Chepstow
  • 2.05 Lingfield
  • 3.07 Chepstow
  • 5.10 Chelmsford
  • 5.20 Kempton

Jockey Stan Sheppard has a good record on Tom Lacey's horses at Chepstow and they team up in just one handicap on Saturday, a race that also happens to be on the free list. Now, it's a bigger field than I'm generally comfortable with (12 is my usual limit), but let's see how Operation Manna might get on in the 3.07 Chepstow and whether there's also an E/W bet or two to be had from this 15-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap hurdle. The trip should be just over 2m7½f, but a 200 yard rail movement has extended it to 3m½f on good to soft ground that is quicker in places and is being watered to stop it turning "good"...

FORM : Ballybegg, Kings Keeper, Top of the Bill and The Kniphand all won last time out. Operation Manna is three from five and Kings Keeper/Top of the Bill/Take Your Time/The Kniphand are all two from five with the latter on a hat-trick. Surrey Quest/Bells of Peterboro/My Bobby Dazzler/Thanksforthehelp are all winless in five. LTO winner Ballybegg has failed to complete three of five and Southfield Harvest/Take Your Time have two incomplete runs.

CLASS : Bells of Peterboro is down one and Bear Ghylls, Ballybegg, Southfield Harvest, Kings Keeper, Surrey Quest, Take Your Time, My Bobby Dazzler and Thanksforthehelp are all up one class. Top of the Bill, The Kniphand and Operation Manna are all up two classes with just three (Jon Snow, Galileo Silver & Dubrovnik Harry) running at this Class 2 last time.

WHAT'S NEW : Top weight Jon Snow makes a handicap debut on his first start for George Baker, Bear Ghylls is in first-time cheekpieces as are Surrey Quest & Thanksforthehelp (who runs for the first time since wind surgery) whilst Southfield Harvest is blinkered for the first time

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Southfield Harvest (2m bumper) and Operation Manna (2m4f hurdle) are former course winners and Jon Snow, Galileo Silver, Southfield Harvest & The Kniphand have all won over a similar trip to this one whilst Bells of Peterboro, Toip of the Bill and Take Your Time are all former course and distance winners.

LAST RUN : Take Your Time has had a 12-week rest, Top weight Jon Snow has been off nearly five months and it has been eight months since Galileo Silver was last seen. He was in fine form, though when signing off with a run reading 11P2212. The rest of this field have all raced at least once in the last two months, but all have had a fortnight or more to get over their latest effort.

Suitability for expected conditions is quickly and easily shown via Instant Expert...

There's not actually masses of experience of these conditions when all is said and done with Bells of Peterboro's eleven attempts at similar trips the most we've got in any section. Some have, of course, fared better than others and Top of the Bill is probably the eye-catcher on wins to runs. I suspect that many of these will look better if we just considered place form...

...which might help to form an E/W bet later. Weight might be an issue for many of these with seven of them carrying 6-9lbs more than their last win with one at +4lbs and another at +5lbs. Take Your Time, however is now 3lbs lower and represents a yard that won this race in 2021 (& 2016), whilst last year's race was won by the trainer of Top of the Bill and The Kniphand.

Past large field races over this going/course/distance have favoured those brave enough to attempt to set the pace and those keeping handy to the pace have also done well here...

...which based on the more recent efforts from this field...

...suggests we might well have a proper battle on our hands with so many of these preferring to race prominently with only Top of the Bill and out and out hold-up horse.

Summary

The Kniphand looks like the 'form' horse here and he's two from two at the trip, he's going to be up with the pace and despite being raised another 7lbs here for his most recent win, that might not be enough to arrest his progress. He's still unexposed after five starts and there's probably more to come from him. He'd be the one to beat in my book, but 5/1 in a 15-runner race hardly sets the pulse racing.

Of the rest, there are a few that I like the look of ie Dubrovnik Harry, Bells of Peterboro, Galileo Silver, feature horse Operation Manna, Kings Keeper and Top of The Bill. In a race where the bookies are paying four places, I'd not be surprised if the four placers are in those seven I've listed, but I wouldn't back The Kniphand or Operation Manna at just 5/1 and I'd be concerned about Top of the Bill trying to come from the back of the pack, if there was plenty of early pace.

This leaves me with possible E/W bets. I'm not sure which Dubrovnik Harry turns up here, though. If he races prominently, he would be a decent pick at 11's, but he has been held up in two of his last three and I wouldn't want that here.  Kings Keeper has never been beyond 2m4.5f and although he stayed on well last time out, he's up in class, trip and 6lbs, so I' want more than 17/2 about him.

And so, almost by default, we're at the 12/1 Bells of Peterboro and the 9/1 Galileo Silver. Both will be up with the pace and both are attractively enough priced for an E/W bet. Bells wasn't disgraced last time out and this former course and distance winner now drops in class. He had a full line of green on the place side of Instant Expert and could well be worth a 12/1 play. The fly in the ointment with Galileo Silver is a 224-day absence, but he was in great form last winter and travels/jumps well. He has finished fourth and second after breaks of 187 & 190 days respectively, so the lay-off might not be an issue and a 9/1 bet might just see a small profit from the race.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 17/01/23

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Fontwell was a washout on Monday, so figures crossed for some action on Tuesday where our free GOLD offering is the Shortlist, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that the Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

This usually brief report looks like this for Tuesday with a couple of races of interest...

...and this free list is complemented by the following 'races of the day'...

  • 2.50 Clonmel
  • 3.00 Chepstow
  • 7.00 Southwell
  • 8.30 Southwell

And I suppose with two of the three Shortlist horses running in a 'free' race, I should be focusing on the 3.00 Chepstow, where Emmpressive Lady and Come On Gruff will take on eight others in a Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m3½f on soft (heavy in places) ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Come On Gruff did at least make the frame, beaten by little more than half a length after a three mile slog at Kempton. Conversely Emmpressive Lady was the only one of these to fail get round on their recent outings, although she had entered that race seeking a hat-trick. Come On Gruff won three and five starts back and New Found Fame won four back on debut, but the rest of the field are winless in five.

He now makes just a second handicap appearance, as does top-weight Iamastar who is sporting first-time cheekpieces and a tongue tie after being well beaten on his UK debut two months ago at this grade. Speaking of class, Gladiateur Allen , Kateson & Ballyellis all drop a class, whilst Come On Gruff moves the other way from Class 4.

Most of this field have won over a similar trio with top-weight Iamastar and bottom-weight Blacko the two exceptions, but only Kateson has won here at Chepstow, having prevailed over 2m4f some 50 months ago.

Eight of the field have raced in the last eight weeks, but Emmpressive Lady's last outing was eleven months ago, whilst Ballyellis hasn't been sighted since August 2021. The 10 yr old could be excused for being a bit rusty, but he did win over 2m at Fakenham 22 months ago coming off a break of 14 months, so his layoff might not be the negative you'd expect and with two wins and a place from four on soft ground, he might be a surprise contender here.

The Instant Expert stats for this field show that all bar Iamastar have at least one win on soft/heavy ground, we've got half a dozen previous Class 3 winners and as per above 8 distance winners, but just to have won here at Chepstow...

The stats suggest that Emmpressive Lady & Alnadam are proven in the mud and the former probably makes most appeal of all ten on that graphic which also highlights that the bottom four in the weights all now carry at least 10lbs less than their last win over hurdles, whilst both Come On Gruff and Alnadam are rated at least half a stone higher than their last wins.

Our pace analyser says that leaders make the frame more than any other approach, but they are often beaten by prominent runners sitting in behind them primed for a run...

...as 42% of placed prominent runners go on to win, but only 18.2% of leaders hang on. One in three mid-divisional running placers have gone on to win, which is better than the 29.2% of hold-up horses. As we log each UK run, we can now see how this field have approached their last four races...

And based on the above, I'd expect Kateson & Blacko to set the pace with Ballyellis & Come On Gruff the prominent chasers. Mid-division is where we'll probably see Alnadam, Emmpressive Lady and Gladiateur Allen with New Found Fame & Forecast our hold-up horses. I've purposely left Iamastar out of those assumptions, as I don't know enough about his running style to formualte an assumption.

Summary

After the above, I fully expected Come On Gruff to be the favourite at around 5/2, which he is at 4.30pm with Bet365, meaning that Hills' 10/3 might offer some good value at the sharp end of the market. He's in decent enough form, scores well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race and I'd expect him to be the one they all need to beat. Our other Shortlist runner, the only mare in the race, Emmpressive Lady, will need to come from a bit further back but I'd expect her to be involved late on and should be good enough for a place, but I'd need more than the current 11/2 to tempt me into an E/W flutter there.

If there was to be an E/W option, then Alnadam at 17/2 might provide it. He hasn't tackled hurdles since winning over this trip at Hereford 22 months ago on soft ground and has spent that time getting beaten over fences, but he now reverts to the smaller hurdles 8lbs higher than that win, but some 2lbs lower than his most recent win (over fences 11 months ago).



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