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Racing Insights, 25th February 2021

For today's Ludlow race, I suggested the possibility of E/W bets on Nordic Combined, Star of Rory and Eddiemaurice at 14/1, 14/1 and 10/1 in opposition to the 6/5 favourite Robinshill.

Those three E/W possibles finished 5th at 10/3 jt fav, 2nd at 10/3 jt fav and the 8/1 winner, so a winner and a placer from three possibles. The overnight favourite drifted right out to an SP of 5/1 and could only manage fourth.

On Thursdays, we offer the Instant Expert guide for all races to all readers, including our 'races of the day', which are scheduled to be...

  • 2.27 Chepstow
  • 3.27 Chepstow
  • 5.25 Thurles
  • 5.30 Southwell

I had a look for some runners with interesting Instant Expert graphics, but most of them looked like they'd be really short prices, so I'm reverting back to the first of our four free races above...the 2.27 Chepstow, a 10-runner, Class 4, handicap chase over 2m3.5f on Soft (heavy in places) ground. The winner will receive £4,289 and will be one of the following...

Silver In Disguise tops the Geegeez Ratings and I'd expect him to be a fairly warm favourite here, but this is by no means a free hit, so let's see if we can find something in his rivals' recent history that might suggest an upset, starting with...

Supreme Escape bears top weight here and was a fairly useful staying hurdler, winning over 3m0.5f on Christmas Eve. He was disappointing on his chase debut here at Chepstow when 7th of 9, but in his defence it was a real drop in trip to 2m0.5f and he'd been off the track for 257 days. He then won here over course and distance 15 days later on heavy ground and based on that run, he could go well here again, despite struggling back at 3m1.5f last time out.

Keep Rolling makes his chase debut today, but did win over hurdles a this class and trip on heavy ground three starts ago. Represents the Hobbs/Johnson trainer/jockey partnership which always command respect, especially as the yard are 14 from 65 (21.5% SR, A/E 1.20) over fences here since 2015, including 6 from 29 (20.7%) for today's jockey.

Pride of Lecale was pulled up before the last hurdle over this course and distance on heavy ground almost three weeks ago seeming to suddenly run out of gas. Probably no surprise after 433 days off the track, though. He doesn't have too many miles on the clock for a ten year due to three lengthy layoffs which suggests he might not be the strongest, so probably best watched on chase debut, although he does have some decent form on heavy ground and jockey Paddy Brennan is in great form right now with 7 wins from 25 (28%) over the last fortnight including 5 from 16 (31.25%) for trainer Fergal O'Brien.

Silver In Disguise is our likely favourite and this former PTP winner struggled in three races over hurdles before tacking the bigger obstacles for the first time at Catterick last time out, where he was an easy 21 lengths heavy ground winner, which will explain why he'll be popular. Conversely, he's up in class, up in trip by 3.5f and up a massive 15lbs, so plenty of unknowns there and the yard is only 3 from 51 over the last two months and has just 4 wins from 88 here at Chepstow since the start of 2018, including a 0 from 17 record over fences.

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Minimalistic has finished 12th of 14 twice (bt by 51L & 78L) over hurdles and was then 3rd of 5 on chase debut, beaten by 25 lengths just over seven weeks ago. He's down in trip (by 5f), down a class and off a mark of 112 for his handicap debut hasn't been given much slack by the assessor. He's not one I'd want to back.

Crypto has has just five starts to date, winning one of two bumpers and finishing fourth in each of three hurdles contests, including a 20 length defeat on handicap debut over this class/trip/going at Bangor six weeks ago. Form doesn't suggest he's likely to win on handicap debut, but trainer Venetia Williams is famed for her horses winning in the mud (2 from 2 at Ludlow today) and she has a long-term good record over fences here at Chepstow including two winners and a runner-up from six already this year.

Ostuni made the frame (albeit 23 lengths behind the winner) at this course, distance, class and going last time out and now returning from a short 12 week break, he's been lowered 3lbs in the weights, which should help him be a little more competitive. He has won a couple of hurdle races at longer distances than today including one on soft ground, so stamina should be OK. He'd be a surprise winner here, but could build on that last run to make the frame again.

Dunbar is still a maiden after 13 attempts (2 x NHF, 10 x hrd and 1 chase) and his best spell came in two months during mid-2019 when he finished 3322, but has floundered since. He didn't see 2m7f out very well on chase/yard debut last time out, eventually finishing 6th of 9 and beaten by 15 lengths despite having led until after 3 out but now takes a 3.5f drop in trip which should help his race management if nothing else. David Rees' chasers are 14 from 74 (18.9% SR) on soft/heavy ground since the start of 2018, but I can't this one adding to that tally.

Cushuish has won just one of her 16 previous outings, but has made the frame in five of her last seven. She makes a chase debut here off a mark only 1lb lower than her hurdles rating, where she's just 1 from 12. Further doubt is cast by the fact that most of her racing has been on quicker ground over longer trips at a lower grade than today. So, there's too many things not right for her here for me to want to leave her alone (I suspect she'll have plenty of red on Instant Expert).

Dawn Sunrise carries bottom weight here for a chase debut after three nondescript efforts over hurdles. He wqas beaten by 88 lengths over this course and distance on debut two years ago, was pulled up twelve days later and then a further 18 days after that, he finished last of seven some 46 lengths off the pace at Wincanton. He's carrying no weight here off a mark of 92, but he hasn't raced for 703 days, hasn't jumped a fence in anger and in David Noonan, has a jockey desperately short of winners after just 1 from 35 over the last month. Not finishing last would equate to success here.

*

Not much chase form to go off today and a field with just 11 wins and 15 further places from 85 starts, I'd imagine that most of these lack a positive profile under today's conditions. To save you ploughing through past results/stats etc, our simple traffic light system on Instant Expert tells you their place from and then their win form under today's conditions in all NH contests...

Going and distance are key here and so I've ordered them in number of places of soft/heavy ground and from the above, it's pretty clear that the first six are the ones best suited and of those Supreme Escape catches the eye on distance. My general "rule of 2" is that I like to see at least two non-red sectors from going/class/course and distance, so that would count against Cushuish here.

And in terms of winners...

...the first three named (who featured heavily on the place graphic) all look to be better suited than the favourite. A word of caution about Supreme Escape, as he's now some 7lbs higher than his last win, but again that pales against Silver In Disguise's 15lb hike in weight.

*

In 12 previous similar contests, only horses racing in mid-division have failed to register a victory with hold up horses winning 41.7% of them, but that's only marginally better than par off 40.4% of the runners. Prominent racers won a third of the dozen races from 31.6% of the runners, so again marginally better than par, but it was front-runners who performed best with 17.5% of the runners winning a quarter of the races.

I wouldn't be put off by having backed a horse that then ran in mid-division, as 12 runners from 114 is no real sample size and a quarter of them made the frame, which isn't too far behind Prominent or Held-Up runners. Unfortunately, after all that, our pace tab tells me there's no confirmed front-runner here...

...although the first four in that list have all led in at least one of their last four outings as denoted by the number 4 in the following graphic...

...suggested that one of them will have to step forward here. Keep Rolling won when he made all when winning at this class, trip and going over hurdles three starts ago, so it wouldn't be a massive surprise if he tried to do the same here.

Summary

Silver In Disguise won well last time out and I can see why that would make him popular, but I suspect the rise in class, trip and (lots of) weight might be his undoing here today and he could be vulnerable to the likes of Crypto ( if he decides to race prominently), Keep Rolling (likewise) and Supreme Escape, who has a good all round profile for this contest.

Of those four, I think Crypto might be the weakest, so he'd b e the last one I'd discard before taking my three against the field for today.

From the three I've got left, I think I like the prospects of Keep Rolling at 13/2 under Richard Johnson best. RJ was on board for that made all win and I think he's the best jockey in this contest at judging the speed of the race. Whilst for the minor places/trifecta purposes, I fancy Supreme Escape (also at 13/2) to edge out Silver In Disguise, who doesn't strike me as great value at 2/1 or shorter.

Racing Insights, 20th January 2021

The going turned heavy at Exeter this afternoon hindering Ballybreen's bid to lug top weight around 3 miles in the mud, but he was far from disgraced finishing as a runner-up less than 2 lengths behind fellow joint favourite Don Herbager who was receiving 12lbs from our pick. 3/1 proved to be good value about a 2/1 jt fav, but he just couldn't quite land the spoils for us.

Wednesday's feature of the day is the Trainer Stats report, whilst our free races of the day are...

  • 1.05 Chepstow
  • 2.20 Newcastle
  • 4.05 Newbury
  • 5.45 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Dundalk

To be honest, neither our featured races nor the Trainer Stats report hold anything for me to get my teeth into for you, so I'm going to try something a little different that might also seem vaguely familiar in a way.

As you might know, most of my own betting comes from stats and I have a huge number of micro-systems that generate lots of potential qualifiers each day. Some horses appear on more than one micro-system and therefore become of increased interest to me. That doesn't mean they're going to win, of course, but it does mean they're worth a second glance.

To this end, I'm going to look at a horse called Le Tueur, a lightly-raced (just 5 previous starts) 6 yr old gelding who'll race in the 3.15 Chepstow, a Class 4, 2m7.5f, handicap hurdle for 4yo+ on heavy ground. The prize is almost £3,769 and James Bowen rides for father Peter. Here's the card...

Le Tueur heads the Geegeez Ratings which is a positive and on form, it looks like Little Red Lion and Memphis Bell would be the two he'd need to beat to win here. But what brought him to my attention?

Well, he featured on several on my trainer-based angles, so here is just a quartet of them to give you some idea of the kind of other things I have running in the background aside from the obvious racecard tools I use.

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1. Since the start of 2016, Peter Bowen's NH handicappers sent off shorter than 8/1 (I expect this to happen here) on ground officially deemed Soft or "worse" have a strike rate of 23.2% by virtue of winning 36 of 155 contests.

2. Le Tueur was sent off a 100/30 favourite when beaten last time out and since the start of 2017, Peter Bowen's UK NH runners who were a beaten favourite last time out have turned the form round to win 25 of 103 (24.3% SR) races next time out. From these 103 runners...

  • those who were beaten favs LTO in the previous 45 days are 21 from 74 (28.4% SR)
  • those who didn't even make the frame LTO are 16 from 65 (24.6% SR)
  • whilst those failing to make the frame LTO in the past 45 days are 13 from 44 (29.6% SR)

3. But prior to finishing fourth last time out, Le Tueur was a winner and Peter Bowen's NH handicappers who won two starts ago and were then fourth are 5 from 10 (50% SR) when turned back out less than three weeks after that defeat, finishing 221U112131 in the process.

4. And finally for now regarding the trainer, Peter's record with 8/1 Class 4 handicap hurdlers stands at 18 winners from 86 (20.9% SR) since the start of 2017, from which...

  • jockey James Bowen is 8 from 28 (28.6%)
  • soft or worse ground runners are 8 from 25 (32%)
  • and on heavy : 2 from 5 (40%)

You might also have noticed the C1 next to jockey James' name on the card and that's because he was 4 from 14 (28.6%) on this track in 2020.

It's useful to have those stats to hand when looking at a horse that has only raced on five previous occasions, but he was second on debut over 2m5f on heavy ground in a Class 4 hurdle and won two starts ago at Ffos Las over 3m0.5f on soft ground despite hitting the last hurdle. He wasn't as good last time out, but led until after 2 out in a soft ground 3m2f contest before fading out of contention.

The way he ran until 2 out suggests that the 2.5f drop back in trip might be beneficial here and he gets to have another crack off the same mark as last time, despite going so well for much of the race.

Instant Expert probably won't tell us too much, other than backing up what I've already said about him...

In recent outings, he has raced fairly prominently and has led at times, but he'll probably be better off if he sits in here as this track/trip has proved difficult to win at of late if trying to set the fractions on heavy ground, as our pace stats/map show...

If that's how the race pans out, it looks good for both our featured runner and form horse Little Red Lion, whilst the other in-form runner, Memphis Bell will have her work cut out of sitting at the back here.

Overall, the records of trainer and jockey suggest Le Tueur should be involved in the shake-up here. Five career starts aren't really enough to base a firm decision upon, but there are some positive signs re: going and trip, but can/will he win?

Summary

Yes, Le Tueur can win this, but I'm not entirely convinced he will. He's a solid placer in my opinion, which is a good start, but I have Little Red Lion & Memphis Bell (not far) ahead of him in that order. So, we'd need things to land our way if our featured runner in to win, so let's see where it might go wrong for the two main rivals.

Little Red Lion hasn't seen a hurdle competitively for the best part of eleven months when he narrowly (short head) landed a Class 5 contest. This is a step up in class from that race and he goes off a mark 10lbs higher than today. He has had four runs over fences since and although he has narrowly won two of them, he has ended up on the ground in the other two. This could affect his confidence and that allied to the rise in class/weight from his last hurdle run must cast some doubts on him?

Memphis Bell seeks a fifth win on the bounce inside less than 20 weeks where her mark has gone up by some 29lbs and you have to wonder how much she has left in the tank before needing a rest. Up another 8lbs for her last win, she'll now need to try and concede weight all round and lug 11st 11lbs around on heavy ground and that has to be a worry. I notice that she's also entered into a better race at Ludlow for Thursday where she'll carry less weight than here, in fact she'll be bottom weight there, so I wouldn't be surprised if she swerves this one and heads to Ludlow.

Thus, if Little Red Lion & Memphis Bell aren't quite at it or don't even run, then yes, our chances will improve. I suppose it all depends on price now. I'd have hoped for 6/1 or better and at 5.40pm Le Tueur is a solid 11/2 from the handful of bookies to show their hands. I've a feeling he might drift initially, so if I can get 6's, I'll have a small punt on Le Tueur with the caveat that he's far from certain to win. Some of you might want to play the place market on an exchange.

 

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

7.15 Wolverhampton : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Slowly into stride, held up, headway and switched right over 2f out, soon edged left, kept on inside final furlong, no impression on winner) - allowed winner too much of a soft lead IMO.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

More on this after the school run...

So, we have a 4 yr old who is joint top on our own ratings, who won last time out (8 days ago) and comes from a yard with a good recent record at this venue.

In fact, this one has been in consistently good form for some time, he won on the last day of February and then returned to the track post-lockdown in early June and has finished 2242261 since, culminating in a win over 5.5 furlongs at Bath last week in another Class 6 handicap under today's jockey and off the same mark as today.

The big field shouldn't bother him, as 13 ran in that Bath contest, whilst I'm sure an extra 100 or so yards will be fine, based on the report from LTO, which reads...midfield, stumbled slightly 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, led just inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length.

The racecard screenshot above also points to trainer Tony Carroll's 12-month record here at Chepstow, so I won't repeat those numbers, but I would suggest focusing on those handicappers sent off at odds of 10/3 to 10/1, as since the start of 2017, they are...

and this includes of relevance today...

  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 34.73pts (+82.7%) on the Flat
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 42.73pts (+125.7%) off marks of 54 to 74
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 43.23pts (+154.4%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 6/20 (30%) for 16.38pts (+81.9%) at Class 6
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 24.8pts (+112.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 8.05pts (+42.4%) on Good ground
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.33pts (+55.6%) were placed LTO
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.38pts (+121.6%) over this 6f course and distance

Based on the above, it makes perfect sense to me to look for Flat handicappers officially rated 54 to 74 who  had run in the previous 25 days and they are...

...meaning we've halved the original sample size, but only lost one of the winners. The sharper eyed amongst you will have noticed that these filters also apply to Our Man in Havana who runs in the first division of this handicap and is a nice price for an E/W bet (9/1 & 4 places paid) if that took your fancy.

As well as highlighting another possible bet, that 9 from 22 stat also includes the following (most of which also apply to the second horse)...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 36.8pts (+368%) in 3yo+ hcps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 20.88pts (+208.8%) at Class 6
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 14.33pts (+159.3%) were placed LTO
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 18.38pts (+306.3%) over this 6f C&D

...steering me towards... a 1pt win bet on Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.40 Newbury : Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased winner 2f, chased leaders, went 2nd again over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, straight to the racecard...

A 3yr old gelding who comes here off the back of two good runs at Leicester already since the restart and was only beaten by an in-form filly (Rosa Gold, who has won comfortably again since) last time out nine days ago with the rest of the field over 4 lengths further back.

This contest looks marginally easier than that contest and takes place on a track where her trainer has a good record. That is documented clearly by the C1 & C5 icons above, the former of which is also shown in the report underneath the card, so lat's take a look at my "Chep Flat" angle in more detail...

The angle is essentially a group of seven trainers that I keep an eye out for here at Chepstow and Mick Channon makes the list, because since the start of 2017 campaign, his handicappers are...

from which those 48 are...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 52.91pts (+117.6%) in contests worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 38.91pts (+99.8%) at 6-25 days since last run
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 10.4pts (+40%) at an ISP below 5/1
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 16.2pts (+60%) as 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 41.56pts (+173.2%) at Class 6
  • 6/10 (60%) for 19.48pts (+194.8%) in July
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.12pts (+53.3%) in 3yo contests
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.17pts (+84.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 3/11 (29.3%) for 15.79pts (+143.5%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs

...whilst those sent off shorter than 5/1 aiming for a prize of less than £4k just 6-25 days after they last ran are...

...and they include a winner (Queen of Silca) from the last horse to qualify for that angle, which was just six days ago and was also ridden by today's jockey, George Bass claiming 7lbs...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Thursday (although Bet365 were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2020

Monday's pick was...

8.30 Windsor : Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, effort and hung left from 2f out, ridden and went 2nd towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Peachey Carnehan @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

As usual, we start with the details we already know which are easily viewed on the racecard...

Saddlecloth 7, Drawn 6 of 10, Won LTO, wears blinkers regularly (bl5+), has won at the course (C), has won at the distance (D) last raced 8 days ago, he's 6 yrs old and will be ridden by a jockey with a good record at this track (C1, C5), has an official rating (OR) of 57, which purely coincidentally is also his Geegeez Speed Rating. The SR of 57 is the second highest in this contest, so straight away there's a feeling we've found one with at least a chance.

So, let's look at some of the above in a little more detail...

He's drawn 6 of 10, which looks a good place to be in similar contests to today, as shown on the racecard draw tab (set to 9-11 actual runners)

He was a winner here last time out over 6f when ridden by Richard Kingscote for the first time, but has a couple of wins over today's trip. He's also...

  • 7 from 55 in handicaps
  • 7 from 54 for trainer Michael Mullineaux
  • 5 from 35 at Class 6 that is very profitable to follow (+43.84pts @ 125.3% ROI)
  • 5 from 16 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 7 from 23 after 3-10 days rest
  • 2 from 8 on Good to Soft ground

Aside from the above, it has also paid to follow the yard's runners quickly turned back out after a good run. More specifically...

and these 52 runners include of relevance today...

  • 9/44 (20.4%) for 54.97pts (+124.9%) for male runners
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 59.47pts (+165.2%) during June to September
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 33.28pts (+114.8%) on the Flat
  • 5/20 (25%) for 23.71pts (+118.6%) at Class 6
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 16.01pts (+123.1%) at an SP odds range of 5/2 to 6/1
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 27.75pts (+252.3%) with runners stepping up in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 23.42pts (+390.3%) here at Chepstow...

...whilst Class 6 males on the Flat during June to September are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 31.21pts (+346.8% ROI), including 3 from 5 at 5/2 to 6/1, 2 from 4 here at Chepstow and 1 from 2 stepping up in trip...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Peachey Carnehan @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Unibet at 8.10am Tuesday with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!