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Placepot Pointers – Friday 19th January

LINGFIELD – JANUARY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.20 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Summer Thunder) & 4 (Red Snapper)

Leg 2 (1.25): 4 (Inuk), 2 (Avon Green) & 5 (Hornby)

Leg 3 (2.00): 1 (Jumping Jack), 6 (Bayston Hill) & 5 (Music Major)

Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Human Nature), 8 (Show Stealer) & 1 (Kachy)

Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Conkering Hero) & 2 (Strictly Art)

Leg 6 (3.40): 1 (Native Appeal) & 6 (Shakour)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: SUMMER THUNDER (1/2) and RED SNAPPER (9/2) are solid prices right across the board in the dead of night in a race which the pair look set to dominate at the business end of proceedings.  Whether the favourite would have had more petrol in the tank when returned as the beaten 13/8 market leader the last day at Kempton had he not dwelt at the start remains unknown though either way, there was precious little left to offer close home.  This race should tell us more about his resolve.  I wouldn’t care to take a price about either horse personally though from a Placepot perspective, they look home and hosed in such a weak contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Lingfield.

 

1.25: The previous six winners had all carried a minimum burden of 9-3 before last year’s 33/1 winner upset the heavily laden apple-cart.  The first race on the card will act as a marker for supporters of course winner INUK who finished just over a length adrift of Summer Thunder last time out.  Either way, 7/4 looks skinny enough about the Richard Hughes raider, albeit his Placepot claims are there for all to see.  Joseph Tuite saddled a winner yesterday whereby there will be some confidence behind AVON GREEN I’ll wager, whilst HORNBY completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Just one (6/4) favourite has obliged via seven renewals, two of which were won by horses returned at 33/1 and 10/1. Three of the seven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one beaten 1/2 favourite from a win perspective.

Course winner in the second event:

1/3--Inuk

 

2.00: There is plenty of money in the realistic positive exchange queue for both BAYSTON HILL and JUMPING JACK at the time of writing, the first named runner being closely linked with MUSIC MAJOR via recent form lines.  This trio should get us into the second half of the Placepot equation between them, albeit Miss Minuty should not be far away at the jamstick though ‘value for money’ is the worry regarding Jeremy Scott’s projected favourite.  If Colourful Career prevails, it will be yet another case of taking the wrong stance about an Ed Dunlop runner, a trainer I rarely (if ever) call the right way!

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Lingfield programme.

Course winners in the third race:

3/5—Miss Minuty

1/6—Cayuga

3/9—Music Major

1/4—Bayston Hill

 

2.30: HUMAN NATURE makes some appeal at the (bet to nothing) each way price of 5/1 this morning, with Milly Naseb still offering fair value from the saddle via her seven pound claim.  Trainer Stuart Williams is in decent enough form whilst he has saddled more A/W winners at Lingfield than at any other venue, one of two turf-less venues (alongside Chelmsford) where he boasts a level stake profit down the years.  SHOW STEALER and KACHY are feared most.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold (7/2) and Silver (5/2) medals whist securing Placepot positions.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Certificate

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1/8—Zac Brown

1/8—Kasbah

1/1—Show Stealer

 

3.05: It would come as no surprise if course winner STRICTLY ART outruns his each way price in this grade/company, albeit CONKERING HERO might still be ahead of the handicapper for a week or two.  The latter named raider is Joseph Tuite’s second runner on the card with realistic claims, with this pair preferred to Ban Shoof at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Lingfield card.

Course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Ban Shoof

1/2—Strictly Art

1/1—Conkering Hero

1/1—Oregon Gift

1/5—Barthomomew J

1/3—Sanches

 

3.40: Charlie Appleby saddled eight runners ‘out east’ at Meydan yesterday resulting in two winners.  Charlie’s raider NATIVE APPEAL should prove difficult to beat, let alone claiming a Placepot position, especially with (seemingly) only SHAKOUR to beat.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new event.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

2 runners—Michael Attwater (0/6) – 35/466 – loss of 61 points

2—David Evans (2/4 +7) – 82/603 – loss of 177

2—Joseph Tuite (0/2) – 10/102 – loss of 5

2—Charlie Wallis (0/2) – 2/47 – loss of 28

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £302.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £217.40 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new meeting

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 6th January

SANDOWN - JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £47.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Echo Watt) & 5 (Mister Chow)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Angels Antics), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 4 (Midnight Jazz)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Theo’s Charm), 6 (Bekkensfirth) & 11 (Amber Gambler)

Leg 4 (1.50): 2 (Gino Trail), 1 (Overturn Express) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (2.25): 5 (Western Ryder) & 2 (Mont Des Avaloirs)

Leg 6 (3.00): 13 (Cloudy Too), 1 (Perfect Candidate), 4 (Double Ross) & 9 (Benbens)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 8/1 or less, the previous gold medallist having scored on the behalf of the majority of bookmakers at 50/1.  The race is ‘marred’ by the inclusion of WE HAVE A DREAM who is seemingly bound elsewhere (Chepstow).  This causes chaos in attempting to get the Placepot scenario right in the first leg, especially writing this column in the dead of night when nothing is 100% certain.  If I leave Nicky’s horse out and he runs and wins as it should do, I’m in deep trouble.  If I opt for the likely second favourite ECHO WATT and Richard Hobson’s raider misses out having has thousands of units transferred onto him via Nicky’s potential ‘defector’, things will be just as bleak.  I have therefore added MISTER CHOW into the mix, leaving We Have A Dream out of the equation.  Here’s hoping…
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  That said, odds on chances were turned over from a win perspective at 1/3 (twice) and 10/11 during the period.

 

12.45: A desperately difficult event to assess, given that the eventual decision will be made via a process of elimination, rather than horses standing out from the crowd.  Philip Hobbs (Poppy Kay) has only saddled two winners via 48 runners since the end of November, whilst Dusky Legend reverts back to timber after a nasty fall the last day.  I’m opting for the other three entries from a value for money perspective, listing ANGELS ANTICS, HITHERJACQUES LADY and MIDNIGHT JAZZ in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.  Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, the other gold medallist having been returned at 9/2.

 

1.20: THEOS CHARM was ‘knocked over’ rather than having fallen the last day and Nick Gifford has found a half decent race to find compensation, should Leighton Aspell’s mount enjoy better luck in running on ground that will not cause connections too much distress.  BEKKENSFIRTH looks a typically well placed Skelton representative, whilst my alternative each way call AMBLER GAMBLER completes my trio against the remaining eight declarations.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (David Pipe trained) 10/3 favourite finished last of the six finishers three years ago, whilst the 11/4 market leader occupied the same position via nine runners twelve months later. Last year’s 7/2 market leader thankfully prevailed for the majority of punters.

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals yet trainers have ignored the ‘edge’ on this occasion.  Another corker of a Sandown event which leads to so many fine Placepot dividends, purely because of the ‘make up’ of races at this venue.  That said, the wheels would come of if a non runner was to rear its ugly head prior to flag fall but remaining positive, I’m expecting GINO TRAIL, OVERTOWN EXPRESS and ROCK ON ROCKY to get us through towards the promised land of another good dividend.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Speredek (soft)

1/2—Rock On Rocky (good to soft)

2/4—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)

 

2.25: Paul Nicholls runs just the one horse on the card whereby the chance of MONT DES AVALOIS demands respect, especially as the second of his two victories to date was gained on this type of ground at Aintree the last day.  That said, WESTERN RYDER looks the type that needs to be followed until beaten again, with Richard Johnson thirsting for winners given the Philip Hobbs stat offered earlier on the card.  By comparison, Warren Greatrex saddled nine winners during the course of December and WESTERN RYDER can continue the good run on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners via ten renewals during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Sussex Ranger (good to soft)

 

3.00: These events for veterans remain as popular as ever and at least three selections are required to ensure we secure the Placepot dividend if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  My ‘short list’ consists of CLOUDY TOO, PERFECT CANDIDATE and DOUBLE ROSS.  Sue (and Harvey) Smith are not in the habit of wasting expenses whereby the soft/heavy ground was vital for CLOUDY TOO to take his chance and his 4/7 record on heavy going ensures that the twelve-year-old was the first name on the team sheet.  The reserve nomination is awarded to BENBENS.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/1 joint favourites won the inaugural contest, though search parties were still out looking for the other beaten market leader several weeks later.  Last year’s 5/1 market leader was similarly lost without trace.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

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1/4—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/2—No Duffer (good to soft)

2/9—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

1/3—Benbens (good to soft)

2/6—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

2/5—Vino Grigio (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/5 +21)

4—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/4 +14)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

3—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom George (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – loss of 5 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/5)

2—Kerry Lee (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ben Pauling (1/4 +5)

2—Dan Skelton (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ian Williams (0/2)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wincanton: £393.80 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £43.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £57.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2018

Friday's Result :

8.45 Kempton :Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG non-runner declared lame an hour before post time....

Next up is Saturday's...

3.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner...

Why?

A chaser at the top of his game with 6 wins, 3 places and a 4th (but that was in a Listed event) from his last 10 starts, plus he's won his last four taking his chasing record to 8 from 21, which based on today's conditions also includes...

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie and 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within 30 days of his last run and 6/13 going left handed
  • 4/10 in fields of 1-7 runners and 2/4 under today's jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1 from 1 at today's trip and 1 from 1 heavy ground

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose NH handicappers are 20/106 (18.9% SR) for 63.2pts (+59.7% ROI) on heavy ground over the last 5 years, from which...

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 20/76 (26.3%) for 93.2pts (+122.7%)
  • at Chepstow : 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.77pts (+142.3%)

Plus, his handicap chasers who won LTO 4-30 days earlier are 17/64 (26.6% SR) for 27.9pts (+43.6% ROI) over the same 5 year period, including...

  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter : 17/54 (31.5%) for 37.9pts (+70.2%)
  • at 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/47 (36.2%) for 44.9pts (+95.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter over 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/40 (42.5%) for 51.9pts (+129.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/6 (50%) for 16.51pts (+275.2%)
  • on heavy : 2/4 (50%) for 7.38pts (+184.5%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/2 (100%) for 11.84pts (+592%)

And finally, Play the Ace was sired by Scorpion, whose offspring are 12/103 (11.7% SR) for 98pts (+95.1% ROI) in NH handicaps on soft or worse ground over last 5 years, including 9 wins from 47 (19.2%) for 128.5pts (+273.5%) at trips of 2m to 2m4f.

...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available in half a dozen places at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th December

KEMPTON - DECEMBER 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.70 (7 favourites - 4 winners - placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Kings Inn) & 7 (Salix)

Leg 2 (1.20): 5 (Tommy Silver) & 3 (Shantou Rock)

Leg 3 (1.55): 5 (Midnight Tune), 3 (Treackle Tart) & 4 (Jester Jet)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Politologue), 2 (Special Taira) & 4 (Forest Bihan)

Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Pilgrims Bay), 1 (Sir Ivan) & 5 (Holly Bush Henry)

Leg 6 (3.40): 3 (Kayf Grace), 9 (Eddiemaurice) & 10 (Chatez)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.45: My chest infection is failing to respond to a high intake of drugs this past week whereby I would ask you excuse a slightly more basic analysis than is often the case, albeit the selections are offered in just the same way as ever.  The reasoning behind the horses I’m opting for might not be as thoroughly explained as has been the case down the years.  Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last ten winners with the trainer opting for his Newcomer KINGS INN this time around.  I’m not convinced by the form of the Alan King runners at the time of writing, whereby I will let Redicean win without being involved if that’s the way the race pans out, preferring SALIX as an option on this occasion.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 14 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include eight winners via 13 contests.   Market leaders came to the gig on a seven timer two years ago before the 11/8 favourite was pulled up with something amiss.  The race reverted to type twelve months ago when the 5/4 favourite prevailed.

 

1.20: Five and six-year-olds have totally dominated this event and the trend will remain in place by the time I look at this race twelve months on.  TOMMY SILVER handles the ground well enough and Paul Nicholls might be the trainer to take advantage of Nicky Henderson’s nigh desertion of the second day of the meeting which is little short of overwhelming, given his dominance of the fixture of late.  A dual winner under soft conditions, SHANTOU ROCK is the obvious danger, hoping against hope that all five runners stand their ground with diluting the race down to a ‘win only’ contest whichwould bring a whole new perspective to our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites have won thus far.

 

1.55: Nine of the eleven winners have carried weights of 10-6 or more which would normally suggest that I would swerve MIDNIGHT TUNE but such is the form of Anthony Honeyball (coupled with horse acting on the ground), that I’m including the six-year-old in my Placepot mix today.  TREACKLE TART represents some value from my viewpoint, whilst JESTER JET continues to perform with plenty of enthusiasm for his in form trainer Tom Lacey.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have scored whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

2.30: SPECIAL CARGO has won two of the last three renewals of this Grade 2 prize, though PILITOLOGUE should offer plenty of resistance in the contest this year.  There is precious little between the pair on ratings though as a six-year-old, the latter named Paul Nicholls raider surely has some scope for further progress which (arguably) gives Paul’s hat trick seeker the edge.  FOREST BIHAN could be added into the mix if you came out of yesterday’s war against the layers in black figures.  Brian Ellison’s five time winner gained the easiest of his five victories to date on bad ground at Newcastle and conditions could yet have a say in the outcome of this event. Certainly if the front pair are beaten, the Placepot dividend would be well worth winning at Kempton today.  Vaniteux however seems to have lost the plot of late.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven favourites have scored whilst seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Desert Orchid’:

1/1—Politologue (good to soft)

2/2—Special Tiara (good & soft)

2/4—Vaniteux (2 x good to soft)

 

3.05: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more, whilst seven-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals with vintage representatives securing eight of the twelve available Placepot positions during the relevant period.  PILGRIMS BAY and SIR IVAN are the two seven-year-olds in the field today, whereby you just know that this self-confessed ‘anorak’ will be supporting this pair, albeit adding HOLLY BUSH HENRY into the equation with Phil Middleton boasting a wonderful 7/17 ratio in recent times.
Favourite factor: Only four of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period, stats which include two clear favourites and one successful (joint) market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

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1/2—Local Show (soft)

1/1—Pilgrims Bay (good)

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have shared eight of the ten renewals thus far, with the older raiders leading 5-3 to date.  I’m going against the vintage trends on this occasion (though that cost me Black Corton as a winner yesterday which also denied yours truly the Placepot dividend) as Nicky Henderson’s soft ground hat trick winner KAYF GROUND has surely been mapped out for this contest for some considerable time.  For the record, Nicky Henderson has easily saddled the most winners (nine in total) but has declared just this one runner on the card.  EDDIEMAURICE is offered up as the alternative each way option at a big price having run well in this event twelve months ago.  Less rain would have been ideal but even so, 20/1 is a massive price about a horse that was beaten less than two lengths last year, coming here on roughly the same terms.  CHATEZ does not represent value for money from a win perspective, for all that his Placepot chance is there for all to see.

 

Favourite factor: The last nine market leaders (joint jollies were recorded last year) have been turned over since the first two favourites obliged.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Mister Malarky (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Tuesday – followed by their number of winners at the corresponding card during the last six years:

5 runners—Alan King (winner at 9/1)

5—Paul Nicholls (6 winners ranging between 8/11* & 13/2)

4—Gary Moore (3 winners at 12/1, 4/1 & 5/2)

2—Brian Ellison

2—Tom George (2 winners at 8/1 & 3/1*)

2—Chris Gordon

2—Charlie Longsdon

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wetherby: £34.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £103.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2017

Boxing Day's Result :

3.25 Market Rasen: Focaccia @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/2 Prominent on outside, driven to lead after 3 out, headed next, weakened before last, tailed off.

No joy on a busy day, next up is Wednesday's...

1.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner...

And an 8 yr old gelding who has already won 8 of his 21 (38.1% SR) starts over fences, including 6 wins and 3 places from 10 over the last six months and has won each of his last four!

His 8/21 chasing record includes...

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie, 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within a month of his last run, 6/13 going left handed
  • 6/12 this year, 2/4 under jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1/1 on heavy and 1/1 at today's trip but stays (and has won) over further

His trainer Peter Bowen has a good record running horses in tough conditions, as his heavy ground handicappers are 21/106 (19.8% SR) for 65.6pts (+61.9% ROI) over the last five years and amongst those 106 mudlarks...

  • those racing over 2m to 3m are 21/76 (27.6%) for 95.6pts (+125.8%)
  • those running here at Chepstow are 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.8pts (+142.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/11 (63.6%) for 27.2pts (+247.5%) : a small but astonishing sample!

More generally over the last couple of years, Peter's runners have also achieved the following of interest/relevance...

  • chasers are 51/233 (21.9%) for 116.5pts (+50%)
  • hcp chasers are 44/215 (20.5%) for 103.3pts (+48%)
  • LTO winners are 22/92 (23.9%) for 36pts (+39.1%)
  • chasers who won LTO are 14/49 (28.6%) for 30.2pts (+61.6%)
  • hcp chasers who won LTO are 14/47 (29.8%) for 32.2pts (+68.5%), of which those running on heavy ground are 3 from 3 for 12.08pts (+402.8%).

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports, Coral, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Boxing Day.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £89.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.05): 7 (Whatswrongwithyou), 3 (Just A Sting) & 1 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (12.40): 3 (Ellens Way), 7 (The Wicket Chicken) & 1 (Whauduhavtoget)

Leg 3 (1.10): 6 (Connetable), 8 (Monbeg Oscar) & 1 (Beat That)

Leg 4 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 4 (North Hill Harvey)

Leg 5 (2.20): 6 (Jenkins), 10 (Exitas) & 8 (Fidux)

Leg 6 (2.55): 3 (Fox Norton) & 5 (Politologue)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.05: Novice hurdle races produce the best record in the sport for winning favourites, and this opening event is a great example given the results during the last 18 years (see below).   Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the last eleven renewals between them, whilst Nicky Henderson has secured seven of the last eight renewals, whereby the 14/1 starting price of the winner three years ago defied belief!  I know that trends are there to be shot at and if it were the perfect science, I would not have to work every day for a living.  That said, I'll take 14/1 winners any day of the week, especially given that Nicky's second (more fancied) runner finished second at 3/1, creating a 53/1 forecast.  Don't always believe that I am in the minority for harping on about trainer trends, as the tote forecast (Exacta) paid less than twenty pounds, whereby many Tote punters homed in on Nicky's great record in the race.  Nicky would have had any number of options for this opening event whereby the declaration of WHATSWRONGWITHYOU jumps off the page.  If the four and five-year-olds are to dominate again however, the chances of the four-year-old representatives JUST A STING (Harry Fry saddled the winner last year) and AINCHEA are there to be seen via the form book.

Favourite factor: Favourites have a great record in this event, having won 12 of the last 18 renewals, with 15 of the successful horses having been returned at odds of 7/2 or less.  16/18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, investors from a win perspective should note that favourites have been beaten at 4/6, 8/11 and 4/5 within the last 15 years.

 

12.40: Handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum trip offer the worst record for favourites under either code of the ‘sport of kings’ year in and year out.  Those were words I opened with two years ago and you can see the result for yourself in the 'favourite factor' section below.  Five-year-olds have secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include the trio of winners at 14/1, 5/1 & 7/2.  Four of the five representatives this year seemingly hold chances of extending the trend, the pick of which will hopefully prover to be ELLENS WAY, THE WICKET CHICKEN and WHATDUHAVTOGET.
Favourite factor: The inaugural contest set up a great Placepot dividend (£1,939.70), with the frame being filled by horses returned at 14/1-25/1-8/1.  Only one of the joint 9/2 market leaders finished in the frame (without winning) the following year, though the 7/2 market leader prevailed twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Loves Destination (heavy)

 

1.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled six winners on this corresponding card during the last five years whereby the chance of CONNETABLE is respected, especially as Paul’s winners scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-13/2-5/1.  Paul has secured three of the last nine renewals where his five-year-old gelding could be the value for money call, especially as vintage representatives have won three of the last six contests.  The vintage stat also brings MONBEG OSCAR into the equation, with the highly rated five pound claimer Mitchell Bastyan in the saddle.  Jonjo O’Neill will be slightly embarrassed by his 2/50 strike rate at Sandown during the last five years I’ll wager, whereby his only runner on the card (Terry The Fish) is swerved by yours truly, preferring BEAT THAT who represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled no less than 11 winners (yes eleven) at this corresponding (Saturday) meeting during the last five years!
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), stats which include three winning favourites.  Seven of the last nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Connetable (soft)

1.45: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this prestigious ‘Henry VIII’ Novice Chase event with the trainer represented by five-year-old Capitaine on this occasion. Vintage representatives have won five of the last seven contests whereby once again, Paul has shown his appreciation for statistics which have not let him down so far in his career!  That said, this looks a tough (and intriguing) renewal, with BRAIN POWER, FINIAN’S OSCAR and NORTH HILL HARVEY all boasting obvious claim for one reason or another.  There is a nagging notion that this event might just run the feet off Finian’s Oscar, whereby I will opt for the other pair, without totally discarding the chance of the fifth runner in the field (Sceau Royal) in any shape of form.  A typically wonderful Sandown event which demonstrates perfectly why this racecourse runs Cheltenham so close to being my favourite NH venue.
Favourite factor: 15 of the last 18 winners have won at odds of 7/2 or less (14/1, 13/2 and 5/1 winners in three of the last four years spoil the trend to a fashion), statistics which includes seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (soft)

2.20: 13 of the last 18 contests have been won by horses carrying weights of 10-13 or less, whilst four-year-olds have claimed six of the last sixteen renewals.  FIDUX is the only runner in the field with ticks in both boxes (thanks to a jockey claim), though Alan King has been struggling for gold medallists of late (recent stats of 1/32) whereby JENKINS is preferred in terms of naming the actual winner.  Nicky Henderson looks to have laid out his five-year-old Azamour gelding for this contest and with the trainer having saddled four of the last seven winners, JENKINS is my each way nap on the card.  A winner of three of his six races to date (2/4 over timber), JENKINS looks to have plenty going for him and the 7/1 quotes by Betfair and Paddy Power make for attractive reading.  I do not anticipate that price being available by the time that the phones start ringing in their respective offices later this morning.  Connections might have most to fear from EXITAS if taking Alan King’s recent negative winning record into account.  Crossed My Mind is the ‘unknown factor’ in the field but I would rather stick closer to home given the potential of Jenkins, especially as Nicky won this with a particularly progressive type in Brain Power twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 favourites have been beaten in this Listed hurdle event, though 13 of the last 16 winners have been returned in single figures.  Eight of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/1—Exitas (soft)

2.55: Three of the last five winners of this event have gone on to win the 'Queen Mother' at Cheltenham in the same season, whilst last year’s Gold Medallist was aimed at the ‘Ryanair’ at the festival and Un De Sceaux duly obliged.  Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last 17 winners of the ’Tingle Creek’ (including seven of the last 12) and the stable is represented by POLITOLOGUE on this occasion, though it would a big surprise if FOX NORTON failed to become the fourth seven-year-old to win this event in what would be the last nine years.  Colin Tizzard’s raider put on a masterclass at Cheltenham the last day despite looking as though the run would put him 100% right and whatever scope Paul’s horse has for improvement, it’s unlikely to upset favourite backers here, albeit I expect POLIOLOGUE to account for the other five entries, the best of which should prove to be CHARBEL is you want to have a speculative each way punt to small stakes.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won this ‘Tingle Creek’ event, whilst the last 17 winners all scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Our Mad (2 x soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their five year totals of winners at this corresponding ‘Tingle Creek’ meeting:

7—Paul Nicholls (6 winners)

5—Nicky Henderson (11)

4—Alan King (2)

3—Harry Fry (1)

3—Neil Mulholland

3—Dan Skelton

3—Colin Tizzard

2—Kim Bailey

2—Chris Gordon

2—Phil Middleton (1)

2—Jeremy Scott

2—Evan Williams

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £637.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chepstow: £91.80 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Wetherby: £57.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverh’ton: £236.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 22nd November

KEMPTON - NOVEMBER 22

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (4.10): 3 (Plead), 4 (Jive Talking) & 2 (Hairdryer)

Leg 2 (4.40): 2 (Dashing Dusty), 4 (Roman Spinner) & 2 (Give Em A Clump)

Leg 3 (5.10): 10 (Salute The Soldier) & 5 (Flavius Titus)

Leg 4 (5.40): 6 (Qaysar) & 2 (Crack On Crack On)

Leg 5 (6.10): 1 (Blue Mist) & 8 (Tanseeq)

Leg 6 (6.40): 9 (Accidental Agent), 13 (Second Thought) & 2 (Khafoo Shememi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

4.10: With poor racing generally in place today, I thought I would offer this all weather meeting to offer a chance of a ‘get out of jail free’ card, if the NH sport earlier in the day has not worked out well for you.  Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured 21 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include all eight winners.  The top five horses in the betting at the time of writing hail from the superior weight trend, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PLEAD (if getting away on terms on this occasion), JIVE TAKING and HARIDRYER who deserves a win following some half decent placed efforts of late.  SOLVEIG’S SONG won this event at 33/1 last year and there will be horses at similar prices with less chance of winning running at Kempton this evening.  Holly Doyle negates the fact that Steve Woodman’s raider is running ‘out of the handicap’, to a fashion at least.
Favourite factor: All eight favourites have finished out with the washing thus far with bookmakers laughing all the way to the bank with gold medallists having scored at prices ranging between 8/1 and 33/1.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/11—Tee It Up Tommo

2/11—Buckland Beau

2/16—Biotic

2/11—Solveig’s Song

 

4.40:  Jamie Osborne did not enjoy the best of years on the turf front but the popular trainer has got his act together of late, boasting recent stats of 7/25, a ratio which offers a level stake profit of 46 points during the period.  It’s significant (accordingly) that Jamie has declared three runners on the card, the first of which is DASHING DUSTY who has been gelded going into his first handicap assignment.  Others for the mix include course winner ROMAN SPINNER and GIVE EM A CLUMP who hails from the David Evans camp which has posted a winner on each of the last two days.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (4/1 & 11/4**) winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Secretario

1/2—Roman Spinner

 

5.10: The BHA are at it again by naming this as a new race because of its ‘novice status’ even though the distance, class classification and everything else is the same as it has been since the Doomsday Book was signed!  I am leaving my stats in though obviously, you can decide whether to take any notice of my findings down the years. SALUTE THE SOLDIER has been the subject of overnight support in no uncertain terms and given the good record of favourites in this event down the years (see below), Clive Cox’s Sepoy colt is the first name on the team sheet, especially with a really good Newbury debut effort under his belt.  FLAVIUS TITUS is the obvious danger given that jungle drums have only conspicuous relating to the newcomers by their absence.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

5.40: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton card, whereby the same stats and facts apply if you ignore the BHA ‘brief’.   I’m quick to jump on the backs of the lads/lasses in the trade press office who get the prices base over apex on occasions but their 8/13 quote about Richard Hannon’s once raced Choisir colt QAYSAR looks to be spot on after an excellent Newmarket effort on debut last month.  Nothing else is jumping off the page at the time of writing whereby I am offering CRACK ON CRACK ON as the alternative each way play in the race, despite the fact that he has plenty to find with the selection via Newmarket form.  If Clive Cox only had two runners travelling today I could have thought that his Havana Gold colt was merely keeping Salute The Soldier company in the horsebox, but that is not the case.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

6.10: The same  BHA comment applies to this juvenile event, whereby I will simply let you decide who is right/wrong!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that BLUE MIST has a wide enough draw to limit enthusiasm relating to his latest 5/4 quote which is backed by exchange rates at the time of writing.  Equally however, it is nigh impossible to leave Roger Charlton Makfi gelding out of the Placepot equation.  The additional furlong here might help TANSEEQ improve on his latest Kempton seven furlong effort, albeit not much improvement would be needed to reach the frame here I suspect.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/13 & 10/11) successful market leaders.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Blue Mist

1/1--Indiscretion

 

6.40: The last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones though unfortunately on this occasion, no horses are eliminated via a defection in the ranks.  Onwards and upward by informing that three-year-olds have won three of the last six contests whereby unbeaten course winners ACCIDENTAL AGENT, SECOND THOUGHT and KHAFOO SHEMENI are entrusted with my Placepot selections to hopefully secure the dividend.  The trio is listed in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this Listed event following eleven renewals, though three of the last eight market leaders did at least secur toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Khafoo Shememi

1/1—Keystroke

1/1—Accidental Agent

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1/1—Second Thought

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday followed by their number of winners (where relevant) at the corresponding meeting during the last five years:

4 runners—Andrew Balding (1)

4—Richard Hannon

3—Clive Cox

3—Richard Fahey

3—William Haggas

3—Rod Millman

3—Jamie Osborne

2—George Baker (2)

2—Michael Bell

2—Roger Charlton

2—Simon Dow

2—John Gosden

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Richard Hughes

2—William Muir (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—David O’Meara

2—Hugo Palmer

2—Daniel Steele

2—James Tate

2—Roger Varian

2—Ed Walker

2—Archie Watson

2—Ian Williams

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £189.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Hexham: Meeting abandoned

Warwick: £13.60 – 6 winners – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 8th November

NOTTINGHAM - NOVEMBER 8

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 4 (Blacklooks), 10 (Burn Some Dust) & 11 (Odds On Oli)

Leg 2 (1.05): 9 (Rhode Island), 13 (Young Rascal) & 12 (Victory Chime)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Glencadam Master), 2 (Best Blue) & 7 (Nibras Galaxy)

Leg 4 (2.15): 4 (Gracious John) & 3 (Clem Fandango)

Leg 5 (2.50): 10 (Fantasy Keeper), 4 (Quick Look) & 6 (Van Gerwen)

Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (Ebitda) & 10 (Sarabi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: I wrote a book called ‘Nursery Class’ many years ago at which time I suggested that the majority of Richard Fahey’s two-year-old handicap winners carried a maximum of nine stones – and little changed down the years. I’m not suggesting that ODDS ON OLI can actually win this event though at around the 18/1 mark, Joe Fanning’s mount could represent some value for money from a Placepot perspective.  At the other end of the market, both BURN SOME DUST and BLACKLOOKS won last time out which at least offered proof that they have what it takes to win races, something that arounds two third of the horses in training fail to achieve.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

1.05: 21 of the last 23 winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which is a terrific record, especially at this stage of the season when results can go ‘belly up’.  Money has arrived overnight for the likes of RHODE ISLAND, YOUNG RASCAL and VICTIORY CHIME and with jungle drums failing to beat for any of the other contenders, this trio will carry my Placepot cash.  The latter named pair might have t best of the draw on this occasion.

Favourite factor: 22 of the 31 market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include 10 successful favourites.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – the most recent result offered first):

14-1-2 (17 ran-good)

11-4-15 (13 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-soft)

10-11-9 (11 ran-soft)

9-10-15-14 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-3-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-2-12 (9 ran-soft)

11-9-6 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-8 (12 ran-soft)

6-8-3 (13 ran-soft)

3-6-9 (17 ran-soft)

8-15-14 (17 ran-soft)

8-3-14 (14 ran-heavy)

10-5-12 (16 ran-soft)

5-8-11 (15 ran-soft)

6-8-4 (17 ran-heavy)

11-6-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-3-6 (12 ran-good to soft)

12-9-14 (14 ran-soft)

1 & 10 D/H-12 (13 ran-heavy)

2-5-12 (13 ran-heavy)

14-4-2 (15 ran-heavy)

17-6-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

6-3-2 (16 ran-good to soft)

 

1.40: BEST BLUE and NIBRAS GALAXY offer some hope against the majority of the shorter priced contenders I’ll wager, whilst GLENCADAM MASTER (like Rhode Island in the first division of this contest) looks another John Gosden type for the short list.  Any money for GREAT BEYOND could be worth heeding later in the day.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply.

 

2.15: GRACIOUS JOHN was the first name mentioned in the analysis for the first running of this event twelve months ago before going on to score at 12/1.  Such generous odds will not be in place this time around but with CLEM FANDANGO being the only horse in the line up that I genuinely fear, ‘John’ is included in my Placepot mix again.

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished just out of the money in fourth place.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Perfect Pasture (good)

1/2—Gracious John (good)

2/7—Classic Pursuit (good & good to soft)

 

2.50: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the six contests to date.  Recent winners QUICK LOOK and VAN GERWEN boast ticks in both of the trend boxes, whilst soft ground winner FANTASY KEEPER completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (11/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Musharrif

1/3—Fantasy Keeper (soft)

1/1—Jabbarockie (good to soft)

 

3.20: Scott Dixon has raided this venue to good effect this season whereby if you want to include an each alternative each way/Placepot option against hot favourite EBITDA, Scott’s SARABI would be the call.  Sarabi represents the four-year-old vintage which has claimed six of the last eleven renewals.  That said, EBITDA is the logical call from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the only (7/2) favourite obliged in this event via the last eleven contests. That said, nne of the relevant winners scored at a top price of 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/23—Ambitious Icarus (good – good to soft – soft)

1/5—Coiste Bodhar (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Wednesday - followed by 2017 stats at the track and profit/loss to level stakes:

4 runners—John Gosden (3/18 – loss of 4 points)

3—Michael Appleby (7/57 – loss of 9 points)

3—Ralph Beckett (2/10 +4)

3—Scott Dixon (4/12 +32)

3—Mick Easterby (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—John Gallagher (1/7 +4)

3—William Haggas (2/11 +3)

2—Karl Burke (2/21 +13)

2—Roger Charlton (0/6)

2—Clive Cox (6/22 +2)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)

2—David Evans (2/18 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (0/20)

2—Roger Varian (4/23 – loss of 13 points)

2—Ed Walker (0/10)

2—Ian Williams (0/10)

+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

85 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £369.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £641.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Kempton: £60.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 8th November 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.50 Wolverhampton : Jack of Diamonds @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Held up, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, effort when short of room inside final furlong to go 2nd.

My next attempt to stop crossbar-rattling and drag myself off the cold list goes in Wednesday's...

2.00 Chepstow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap over 2m on Good To Soft worth £7798...

...and a 6 yr old gelding with solid Irish P2P form from 4 runs at the end of 2016, winning the last of them ahead of a Rules debut at Ffos Las in March of this year. He was a winner that day too by some 30 lengths, although he did have some luck along the way.

He was just over a length down after the last hurdle but was staying on well, when the leader jinked and unseated hos rider, leaving our boy with a facile opportunity to score at the first attempt.

He can be expected to have come on for having had the experience and you just know that as an ex-pointer he should just jump well and no doubt his handler, Evan Williams will have had him extensively schooled during his 252 day break ahead of this handicap debut.

Evan does well with his jumping debutants and those priced at 6/ to 11/1 are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 25.6pts (+35.6% ROI) since 2011, including...

  • males at 14/69 (20.3%) for 28.6pts (+41.5%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 10/40 (25%) for 18.3pts (+45.7%)
  • those ridden by Adam Wedge are 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.6%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.3pts (+148.7%)
  • those returning from a break of 6 to 10 months are 4/14 (28.6%) for 29.6pts (+211.3%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.3pts (+155.3%)

It's no surprise to see the yard has had a couple of winners on handicap debut at this track, as more generally/recently, the Williams runners have a good time of it here at Chepstow, winning 19 of 102 (18.6% SR) for 117.2pts (+114.9% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • males are 17/88 (19.3%) for 102.7pts (+116.8%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m3.5f : 15/72 (20.8%) for 117.4pts (+163%)
  • at odds of Evens to 17/2 : 14/56 (25%) for 20.8pts (+37.1%)
  • ridden by Adam Wedge : 6/31 (19.4%) for 6.9pts (+22.3%)
  • over the 2m trip : 9/30 (30%) for 24.6pts (+82%)
  • those rated (OR) 119-130 are 7/27 (25.9%) for 25.7pts (+95.3%)
  • in October/November : 8/20 (40%) for 145.3pts (+726.5%)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/19 (21.1%) for 7.95pts (+41.9%)
  • LTO winners are 6/13 (46.2%) for 121.9pts (+937.9%)
  • and those coming back from 6-10 months off the track are 3/11 (27.3%) for 9.98pts (+90.7%)

...providing us with... a 1pt win bet on Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from BetVictor, BoyleSports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 31st October

BANGOR – OCTOBER 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £118.00 (9 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Bangor: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 6 (Dostal Phil) & 10 (Turtle Wars)

Leg 2 (1.25): 2 (Modus) & 1 (Gibalfaro)

Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Pennywell), 4 (Sauvignon) & 5 (Walter Oneeightone)

Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Ballycool), 1 (Deise Vu) & 6 (Alpine Secret)

Leg 5 (3.05): 6 (War Creation), 2 (Grand Turina) & 4 (Man Look)

Leg 6 (3.35): 4 (Haul Away) & 8 (Stylish Moment)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: Four-year-olds have won both contests thus far though to be entirely honest, vintage representatives have let the side down by failing to offer additional Placepot positions between them.  Four-year-old DOSTAL PHIL would not have to be overly smart to go very close here on his first assignment in this green and pleasant land.  Philip Hobbs knows the time of day and the famous McManus colours look set to strike gold again, unless Nicky Henderson’s recent import TURTLE WARS is a little out of the ordinary.  At least Nicky’s raider is not drifting like a barge on the exchanges overnight, unlike Jonjo’s raider Mad For Action who might otherwise have been given a chance sporting the famous Magnier/Smith/Tabor silks.  26 on the ‘machine’ at the time of writing does not augur well for his chance at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date secured gold and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

1.25: Fair play to John Groucott and connections for taking on two sets of leading connections here, though it looks as though Midnight Target will only pay for part of the expenses on the day.  You should never be frightened of taking on one horse as the old adage suggests, but the leading pair would give John’s representative a 25 length start if ‘sport’ dominated the business rather than money.  MODUS and GIBRALFARO are the two ‘big guns’ on show here, or at least they could have been classed that way if the latter named Alan King representative had lived up to the hype his initial successes at Kempton and Ascot attracted the thick end of two years ago.  Eight subsequent events have failed to add to the winning tally though at just five years of age, Wayne Hutchinson’s mount is young enough to carve out a decent future over the bigger obstacles.  MODUS is a couple of years older, though he is marginally less exposed than his rival whereby the age difference is not worth taking too seriously regarding what both horses might/might not achieve over fences.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites secured a Placepot position by winning the second renewal at even money, following the demise of the inaugural market leader at the same price when finishing third in a ‘short field’ race.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

2.00: Seven-year-olds have won both contests though in PENNYWELL, Warren Greatrex has declared the only vintage representative in the field.  If Warren’s mare is to oblige, readers might want to take note of the 10/3 quote by Bet365 at the time of writing, as the stable’s horses have a habit of shortening in price before scoring, especially after returning from a long absence.  Pennywell runs off a lower mark than when last seen some eighteen months ago, whereby the trainer is to be congratulated for finding such a good opportunity for ‘Thomas’ to ride his seventh winner which would be his fifth success over timber if that scenario evolves.  WALTER ONEEIGHTONE enters my ‘last chance saloon’, whilst the Placepot chance (at the very least) is there for all to see regarding the Skelton entry SAUVIGNON.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the money via two renewals, snaring Placepot positions via a winner at 7/2  and a runner up at 5/2**.

Record of the course winner in the third race

1/11—Tribal Dance (good)

 

2.30: BALLYCOOL is the first named raider mentioned in dispatches here, mainly because of the relevant trainer Lucinda Russell who continues to be underrated by media reports in my considered opinion.  Lucinda bagged a 31/1 double at Ayr yesterday (albeit via eight runners), whilst the Scottish based trainer boasts a 29% record here at Bangor via four winners during the last five years, scorers which have produce seven points of level stake profit.  DEISE VU and ALPINE SECRET are the obvious dangers.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite duly obliged, only for last year’s 5/2 market leader to finish out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/3—Ballycool (good to soft)

 

3.05: GRAND TURINA retains potential for sure though from a win perspective, I usually wait until the ground turns consistently soft before backing horses from the Venetia Williams yard. That does not rule out her Placepot chance here of course, though more obvious winners include WAR CREATION and (arguably) MAN LOOK.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Bangor card.

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3.35: Four-year-olds saddled by leading trainers (Alan King and Harry Fry) have won the two contests to date and HAUL AWAY (Nicky Henderson) and STYLISH MOMENT (Alan King) should certainly land the Placepot dividend for us if are still ‘live’ going into our finale.  HAUL AWAY looks to be the clear pick of Nicky Henderson’s two runners on the card, albeit the declaration of a hood detracts from total commitment to Nicky’s Stowaway gelding.  Five pound claimer Ned Curtis boasts a 33% strike rate for the trainer however which negates the slight negative vibe that originally hit yours truly when looking up the details of the four-year-old.  STYLISH MOMENT carries the colours of Trevor Hemmings who just loves greeting winners in this part of the world and the entry immediately caught the eye accordingly.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/4 marker leader snared a Placepot position by claiming a silver medal before all three 3/1 co favourites finished out with the washing twelve months later. The frame was filled by horses returned at 10/1, 14/1 and 15/2.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Bangor card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—Oliver Greenall (0/3)

3—Sarah-Jayne Davies (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

3—John Groucott (0/3)

3—Nicky Henderson (0/2)

3—Nick Kent (No previous runners here this season)

2—Jenny Candlish (0/7)

2—Henry Daly (1/2 +17)

2—Alan King (1/3 +4)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/3)

2—Henry Oliver (0/4)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/13 – loss of 10 points)

2—John O’Shea (0/6)

2—Ben Pauling (No previous runners here this season)

2—Katy Price (0/4)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/3)

2—Venetia Williams (0/1)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £154.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Chepstow: £20.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 15th October

GOODWOOD - OCTOBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £434.50 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 8 (Age Of Wisdom), 3 (Taper Tantrum) & 9 (Bamako Du Chatelet)

Leg 2 (2.40): 5 (Maypole), 6 (Lady Dancealot) & 3 (Dutch Academy)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Royal Household), 4 (Travelcard) & 2 (Zoraya)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Racing Country) & 2 (Loxley)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Teofonic) & 3 (Tartini)

Leg 6 (4.55): 7 (Handytalk), 11 (Letmestopyouthere) & 13 (Poet’s Princess)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Not my type of race at all (akin to the Shergar Cup nonsense at Ascot) with the BHA engaging in games on the racecourse which is not allowed when and where they decide it is not fit to play!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that AGE OF WISDOM, TAPER TANTRUM and BAMAKO DU CHATELET should give us a reasonable run for our Placepot investment.

Favourite factor:  Four of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (one winner).  If such contests have to be included on a card, why are they not at the end of a meeting when people can choose to stay at the course if they wish?  That would also ‘free up’ Placepot events which should be taken seriously, given all the revenue that the wager produces.

Record of the course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Harry Hunt (soft)

1/10—Fitzwilly (good)

1/9—Spice Fair (good to firm)

 

2.35: The powers that be have this marked down as a new race via the ‘novice agreement’ they brought into effect a while ago.  I have included my stats because not one ounce of difference marks this race (apart from its title), as it is a Class 5 event over six furlongs as was ever the case.  It is up to you whether you take note of the facts, plain and simple. 'Team Hannon' have secured two of the last seven contests and Richard introduces his Mayson colt MAYPOLE who was his only five day entry for the contest.  This March foal will be included in the Placepot mix alongside LADY DANCEALOT and DUTCH ACADEMY.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals have produced three winning favourites, whilst four market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

 

3.10: Five of the last seven winners (and seven of the last eleven gold medallists) have carried a minimum burden of 8-12, which eliminates the bottom two horses in this two-year-old handicap.  ROYAL HOUSEHOLD has to be included in my overnight mix with ‘Team Hannon’ having secured three of the last six renewals.  It’s worth noting that Richard held 25% of the five day decs for this event (5/20) though with just the two runners making the final cut, stable companion Ocean Side has not shown enough ability yet to be considered.  TRAVELCARD and ZORAYA are feared most.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Royal Household (good)

 

3.45:  MONARCHS GLEN I am repeating myself from the second event on the card I’m afraid; The powers that be have this marked down as a new race via the ‘novice agreement’ they brought into effect a while ago.  I have included my stats because not one ounce of difference marks this race (apart from its title), as it is a Class 4 event over nine furlongs as was ever the case.  It is up to you whether you take note of the facts, plain and simple. I should point that in both cases of course, this was my view and not necessarily that of the guys at geegeez.co.uk!  The two Godolphin newcomers might be up to dominating this contest as jungle drums were (mildly) beating some time ago for both RACING COUNTRY (Saeed Bin Suroor) and LOXLEY (Charlie Appleby).  Both of the high profile trainers have declared just the one runner on the card which appears significant from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame to date (four winners).  Nine of the ten winners have scored at a top price of 5/1.

 

4.20: Mark Johnston made one of his successful ‘smash and grab’ raids on this prize last year and having held four options at the penultimate entry stage, the trainer obviously wants to maintain his 100% record in the race.  Mark has settled on lone raider TEOFONIC to represent the yard which is a great compliment to the horse given that Mark scrutinises every race held at the glorious venue.  TARTINI might give the selection most to do at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth behind horses which filled the frame at 12/1, 13/2 & 8/1.

Record of the course winners in the fifth leg:

1/7—Aussie Reigns (good)

1/8—Jacob Cats (good to firm)

 

4.55: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried a maximum weight of 9-3 whereby the top five horses are eliminated from my thoughts, whilst four-year-olds come to the gig having secured three of the last four contests.  A short list of HANDYTALK, LETMESTOPYOUTHERE and POET’S PRINCESS emerges having put the stats and facts together.  Out of interest, Boy In The Bar was the beaten (11/4) favourite in this event last year when finishing just of the frame in fourth place.  Supporters of the market leader from a Placepot perspective would have particularly miffed with ‘only’ fifteen runners contesting the handicap event as 16 were declared before a ‘vet’s certificate’ reared its ugly head!

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have produced two winning favourites, whilst five of the ten market leaders finished in the frame.  Four winners were returned in double figures at 16/1-14/1-11/1-11/1.

Record of course winners relating to the Placepot finale:

1/4—Boy In The Bar (good)

3/12—Pettochside (2 x soft & good to soft))

2/5—Iseemist (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Sunday – followed by their ratios this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—Gary Moore 3/11 +109)

3—Mick Channon (5/39 – loss of 4 points)

3—Richard Hannon (5/58 – loss of 21 points)

3—Richard Hughes (3/24 – loss of 10 points)

3—Mark Johnston (7/49 +16)

3—Hughie Morrison (0/13)

2—John Butler (0/4)

2—Paul Cole (1/12 – loss of 9 points)

2—Simon Crisford (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—James Eustace (no previous runners)

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2—John Gosden (6/27 +12)

2—Paul Henderson (0/7)

2—Joseph Tuite (0/10)

2—Mark Usher (0/2)

2—Ian Williams (3/10 +25)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

63 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £247.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th Ocotber

NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £84.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Rastrelli), 5 (Kew Gardens) & 4 (Graffiti Master)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Ghaiyyath) & 7 (Purser)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Expert Eye) & 2 (Emaraaty)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Shrewd), 12 (London Pride), 32 (Withhold), 18 (Lagostivegas) & 34 (Aurora Gray)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Nobleman’s Nest), 4 (Prestbury Park) & 7 (Character Witness)

Leg 6 (4.50): 13 (Tirania) & 10 (Spiritual Lady)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: This Listed juvenile event was the Placepot finale last year and it looks just as tough to start off a wonderful card, especially with just a ‘short field’ of seven runners having been declared.  The only course winner is RASTRELLI and though the ground will be riding faster on Saturday, Charlie Appleby’s February foal is worth his place in the field in search of his hat trick.  There is every chance that KEW GARDENS could start off the day to winning effect for Aidan O’Brien, whilst there is no knowing how punch potential lies beneath the saddle regarding John Gosden’s Dubawi representative GRAFFITI MASTER.  New readers might like to know that the term short field related to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won six of the last eleven contests, whilst every winner during the last twelve years scored at 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Rastrelli (good to soft)

 

2.25: Four renewals of the Autumn Stakes have passed since a favourite obliged as you can plainly see below though that said, the last six market leaders have all finished in the frame if you include the joint favourites in 2012.   A few of the represented leading trainers have failed to win this Group 3 event despite 27 renewals, including Aidan O’Brien who appears to feel frustrated as he has only sent two outsiders over to contest the race this time around.  I called the 12/1 winner Best Solution last year and trying to follow up that winner, I’ll go to the other end of the market with Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH who looks a really promising type judged on his victory at the second time of asking over course and distance.  James Doyle’s mount had disappointed as a beaten 6/5 favourite on debut on Town Moor but Charlie’s late April foal made amends in grand style.  PURSER met with traffic problems in the ‘Solario’ at Sandown or John Gosden’s Mizzen Mast coly might otherwise have been coming here on his fourth assignment defending an unbeaten run. If however, is the biggest word in racing.

Prices of win and placed horses in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes (exact science):

2016: 12/1-16/1-11/4*

2015: 4/1-15/8*-9/2

2014: 10/1-33/1-11/4*

2013: 15/2-6/5*-16/1

2012: 5/2**-5/2**-7/1

2011: 8/1-5/1-11/8*

2010: 33/1-9/1-7/2

2009: 9/1-15/2-9/2

2008: 9/4*-11/4-4/1

2007: 4/7*-16/1-5/1

2006: 6/4*-25/1-4/1

2005: 20/1-13/8*-9/1

Record of the course winner in the Autumn Stakes:

1/1—Ghaiyyath (good to soft)

 

3.00: Aidan O'Brien's sends four representatives over to try and snare his fifth winner of the 'Dewhurst' during the last nine years.  Even the maestro might have his work cut out however, with Sir Michael Stoute sounding bullish about the chance of EXPERT EYE, a scenario which Michael has not been prone to voice down the years, especially relating to his two-year-olds. Michael is not one to get too carried away with his representatives and it’s worth noting that Expert Eye’s only other entry at the time of writing is in the Irish 2000 guineas next year.  Acclamation stock tend to run over a maximum of eight furlongs though that said, the sire has produced 19 runners to win over the Derby distance and beyond.  This race should tell us everything we need to know about next year, proving that the January foal wins of course.  SEAHENGE is my idea of Aidan’s best chance in the race, whilst EMARAATY is the pick of the remaining home contingent.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last eleven renewals, whilst nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.

Record of the course winner in the Group 1 ‘Dewhurst’:

1/1—U S Navy Flag (good to soft)

 

3.40: Recent weight, starting price and Cesarewitch age trends have been shot to pieces during the last few years (I try and be as honest as possible) whereby I am less than confident about the outcome this time around.  That said, ten of the last sixteen Placepot positions have been claimed by horses drawn 12 or higher, statistics which include 66/1 and 50/1 winners amongst their number.  Out of interest, six of the last seven winners have carried a maximum weight of 8-11.  I’m offering five horses against the field from a Placepot perspective, namely SHREWD, LONDON PRIDE, WITHHOLD, LAGOSTOVEGAS and AURORA GRAY.  I doubt that I will become involved in trying to name the winner come sun up.

Prices of win and placed horses:

2016: 7/1-50/1-8/1-9/1

2015: 50/1-7/1-9/1-16/1

2014: 10/1-25/1-5/1*-16/1

2013: 66/1-20/1-10/1-20/1

2012: 66/1-7/1*-9/1-14/1

2011: 25/1-16/1-20/1-14/1

2010: 16/1-33/1-50/1-14/1

2009: 9/2*-14/1-16/1-16/1

2008: 50/1-15/2-10/1-7/2*

2007: 14/1-33/1-6/1**-25/1

2006: 9/2*-25/1-100/1-25/1

2005: 10/1-20/1-50/1-25/1

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2004: 16/1-10/1**-50/1-33/1

2003: 12/1-33/1-50/1-8/1

2002: 12/1-16/1-66/1-12/1

2001: 14/1-66/1-33/1-66/1

2000: 11/1-40/1-9/2*-10/1

1999: 7/1-50/1-25/1-100/1

1998: 11/1-14/1-13/2-10/1

1997: 16/1-5/1*-12/1-10/1

Record of the course winners in the Cesarewitch:

1/4—Watersmeet (good to firm)

1/1—Who Dares Wins (good)

1/4—Shrewd (good)

2/3—Star Rider (good & soft)

 

4.15: Simon Crisford has posted 17 winners since the end of July via a decent strike but more importantly, the trainer has snared 73 points of level stake profit into the bargain.  We will not get fat backing NOBLEMAN’S NEST however, albeit Simon has a fine chance of snaring the prize.  Mark Johnston’s hat trick seeker PRESTBURY PARK (surely a horse destined to run under the other code at Cheltenham one day) looks a typically tough stable representative, whilst CHARACTER WITNESS completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.

Favourite factor: Although there has been a seven furlong Nursery on the card for a number of years, this race has been opened up to colts and geldings as well as fillies, whereby it is (quite correctly to be fair) deemed as a new race.  I try and be as flexible as possible, even though that might not come across at times!  However….

 

4.50: I’m trying to work out why (for the life of me) this Listed ‘Bodicea’ event is being classed as a new race.  It’s still a Listed (Class 1) event raced over six furlongs for the fairer gender so what gives?  For the record, I am keeping my stats intact whereby you can choose to follow suit and stay with the (albeit unofficial) history of the race or you can ignore the stats and facts, that is your prerogative.  William Haggas saddled four consecutive winners of this event between 2007/10 and the trainer has offered the green light to TIRANIA on this occasion.  Three-year-olds have won nine of the last twelve renewals for good measure, albeit that stats relates to 12/13 runners this time around.  Others to consider include QUEEN KINDLY and (particularly) SPIRITUAL LADY with Ryan Moore booked to ride.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last six contests, whilst eight of the twelve market leaders during the last decade finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Pixieleen (good)

1/1—Spiritual Lady (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Saturday – followed in brackets by the number of winners they have saddled at H/Q on Cesarewitch day during the last five years:

7 runners—Mark Johnston (2)

7—Aidan O’Brien (3)

6—Richard Fahey

6—John Gosden (1)

3—Charlie Hills (2)

3—Alan King (1)

3—Hughie Morrison (1)

3—Willie Mullins

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Charlie Appleby (1)

2—Andrew Balding (1)

2—Ralph Beckett

2—Peter Chapple-Hyam (1)

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—William Haggas (1)

2—Richard Hannon (1)

2—Brian Meehan (1)

2—Evan Williams

2—Ian Williams

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

93 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £198.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Hexham: £30.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

York: £57.90 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: This is a new fixture on the calendar

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th September

YARMOUTH – SEPTEMBER 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £137.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unpalced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Yarmouth: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Mutaaqeb), 1 (Mashaheer) & 5 (Rule Of Honour)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Noble Manners) & 1 (Simpson)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (High End) & 3 (Intellect)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Fortria), 8 (Sexy Secret), 6 (Magic Beans) & 10 (Mungo Madness)

Leg 5 (4.10): 8 (One Master) & 4 (Perfect Sense)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (North Creek), 3 (Quatrieme Ami) & 7 (Ocean Temptress)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: The first thing I must mention having looked at the overnight exchanges is that Mandarin Princess is coming in for a little support at 50/1 as well as exchange activity though at present, we are talking small liquidities.  More obvious winners in the line up include the Invincible Spirit newcomer MUTAAQEB from the Owen Burrows yard and MASHAHEER.  Money for RULE OF HONOUR would be worth heeding in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to start proceedings at Yarmouth.

 

2.35: Mark Johnston is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this Nursery event during the last decade and as a winner in this grade at Newmarket in July, NOBLE MANNERS is the first name on the team sheet.  The general quote of 7/1 about Mark’s (good to soft winner) Myboycharlie filly makes plenty of each way appeal, albeit this is a ‘short field’ event.  Ed Walker’s raider SIMPSON will also find the ground a little softer than is ideal for the Dragon Pulse gelding though that said, this pair should get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to LUCIFUGOUS. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last seven contests during which time, five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second race on the card:

1/1—Midnight Wilde (good to firm)

 

3.05: HIGH END had drifted a little overnight but not enough for us to become alarmed, particularly as far as his Placepot prospects are concerned.  Saeed Bin Suroor’s unbeaten Dubawi representative has to be included in the mix, albeit in an interesting race which probably means that this will be another event on the card where my ‘powder remain dry’ in terms of considering a bet from a win perspective.  There will be worse ‘outsiders’ on the card than ZACK MAYO I’ll wager, though INTELLECT is considered as the rival that HIGH END has to beat in order for his 100% record to remain intact.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick having won three of the five renewals to date.  The last five market leaders have all finished in the frame following the complete demise of the inaugural 10/11 favourite back in 2012.

 

3.40: This is practically a ‘seller’ in all but name and one of the few things about the race which catches the eye is that SDS is given the leg up aboard a Dean Ivory raider (FORTRIA) for only the third time according to my figures.  SEXY SECRET, MAGIC BEANS and MUNGO MADNESS are added into the equation, hoping that this is the race on the card that will propel the potential Placepot dividend into orbit.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Yarmouth programme.

1/10—Sexy Secret (good to firm)

 

4.10: William Haggas won this race with his previous runner in the race (winning favourite two years ago) whereby I’m latching on to his Fastnet Rock filly ONE MASTER who overcame problems to finish a fine third in a much better race at Doncaster on debut last month.  Too many ‘good things’ have come unstuck down the years in terms of expecting juveniles to win after just one race in which they have shown promise, whereby I will simply expect Ryan Moore to steer the market leader home, chiefly at the expense of PERFECT SENSE.  Saeed’s raider is (potentially) asked to give the filly just two pounds thanks to a jockey claim which could make the race interesting at the business end of proceedings.

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Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have won with all four market leaders having finished in the frame.  The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, stats which have produced four successful favourites.

 

4.45: Without an edge via previous renewals to work with, I am guided (as much as anything else) by three each way types who have attracted money overnight, namely NORTH CREEK, QUATRIEME AMI and OCEAN TEMPTRESS.  If you are content to eliminate one or two of the runners I have included in the fourth race on the card, you might want to add soft ground course winner ROBBIAN into the mix here.  Chris Wall (NORTH STREET) is (respectfully) not a name which is banded about too often is terms of headlines in the sport, but it’s worth reporting that this much underrated trainer has saddled no less than 74 winners at Yarmouth down the years, nearly forty winners more than his best other turf track ratios at Windsor and Newmarket (July course). Not only are his horses here always worth a second glance but equally, it often pays to look out for his representatives that have been sent to another course when Yarmouth stages fixtures.  For the record, Chris sends two horses on the long journey to Newcastle tonight.  A minimum stake patent has been invested by yours truly. If either of those ‘away runners’ are successful tonight, keep an eye on the runners away from Yarmouth on Wednesday and Thursday.  Chris has one in at Sandown tomorrow and two potential runners elsewhere on Thursday.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third of the new races on the Yarmouth card.

1/2—Robbian (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Yarmouth card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3—Phil McBride (2/17 – loss of 3 points)

3—John Ryan (3/21 – loss of 9 points)

2—Roger Charlton (1/1 +1)

2—Christine Dunnet (0/22)

2—Chris Dwyer (4/21 – loss of 2 points)

2—Robert Eddery (2/8 +2)

2—William Haggas (5/25 +1)

2—Dean Ivory (2/21 – loss of 11 points)

2—John Jenkins (0/24)

2—Mark Johnston (1/11 – loss of 3 points)

2—Laura Mongan (No previous runners)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (4/8 – slight profit)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £165.80 – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Redcar: £21.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new fixture on the calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 14th September

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £5,101.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 10 (Kenny The Captain), 5 (Vimy Ridge) & 3 (Related)

Leg 2 (1.50): 3 (Silver Starlight), 5 (Clubbable) & 2 (Ellthea)

Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Sizzling), 5 (Nyaleti) & 2 (Dark Rose Angel)

Leg 4 (3.00): 8 (Detailed), 7 (Aljezeera) & 9 (Melodic Motion)

Leg 5 (3.35): 3 (Danzan), 11 (Great Prospector), 7 (Laugh A Minute) & 4 (Aireen Faisal)

Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Al Neksh)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: Apologies offered for what will seem a restricted service having reacted badly to my umpteenth flu jab yesterday which has never happened before. Tim Easterby found a fine opportunity (as reported on Wednesday) for Off Art to win the novelty race yesterday and the trainer could double up in the Ladies’ race on the card with KENNY THE CAPTAIN.  The pick of the outsiders could prove to be VIMY RIDGE (Alan Bailey has been in fine form these last few weeks) and RELATED who will be partnered by the much underrated Holly Doyle for the first time.  A sixteenth runner in the race would have helped.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race with which to open proceedings on day two of the St Leger Festival.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Hoofalong (good to firm)

1/11—Khelman (heavy)

1/5—Kenny The Captain (soft)

1/5—Seamster (good to firm)

 

1.50: 14 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, with the top weight The Mums eliminated from my inquiries this time around accordingly. This race constantly destroys the dreams of 'Potters' the length and breadth of the land at the first time of asking on the second day of the St Leger meeting, though this is the smallest assembled field for the contest in many years.  Overnight money has (seemingly) arrived for SILVER STARLIGHT which could enable Tim Easterby to make a wonderful start to the second day of the meeting, connections probably having most to fear from CLUBBABLE and soft ground winner ELLTHEA.

Favourite factor: Four of the 19 market leaders have prevailed thus far, whilst only six of the other 15 market leaders claimed additional toteplacepot positions.  Aside from the winning 7/4, 9/4 3/1 and 9/2 favourites, other scorers included those returned at 20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--10/1.

Draw factor (six and a half furlongs – the most renewal is listed first):

3-2-6 (12 ran-good)

20-19-6-16 (19 ran-good)

11-3-13-12 (17 ran-good)

10-2-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

17-1-14-19 (18 ran-good)

1-4-5 (13 ran-good)

1-12-6-10 (18 ran-good)

7-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

16-2-14-8 (16 ran-soft)

3-9-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-8-9 (13 ran-heavy)

11-4-10 (14 ran-firm)

15-12-11-14 (22 ran-good)

5-6-14-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

19-1-14-3 (20 ran-good)

12-22-8-21 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-13-17-16 (17 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25: Godolphin has secured four of the last six renewals when represented, though the blue colours are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion.  NYALETI arguably deserves her place towards the head of the market though in terms of value for money, Aidan O’Brien’s soft ground winner SIZZLING and course winner DARK ROSE ANGEL make more appeal from an each way perspective, if you are considering a wager in the contest aside from our Placepot interest.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have won during the last 20 years (including five of the last ten favourites), whilst 15 of the 20 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dark Rose Angel (good)

1/1—Laurens (good)

 

3.00: Three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 20 renewals, though four-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests.  Another Irish raider (from Joseph O’Brien’s yard this time) makes the most appeal with heavy/soft ground winner DETAILED expected to figure prominently, even though the Motivator representative is hiked up in class.  The odds compliers at Stan James might live to regret the 16/1 quote this morning, especially from an each way angle.  ALJEZEERA and MELODIC MOTION are feared most.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have prevailed during the last 20 years, alongside one co favourite of three.  13 of the 23 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Dubka (soft)

1/1—Aljazeera (good to firm)

 

3.35: Horses drawn middle to high have secured an edge in recent times as you can clearly see below and the pick of those drawn ‘favourably’ on this occasion include DANZAN (15/22), GREAT PROSPECTOR (10) and AREEN FAISAL (13).  The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing. Media ‘experts’ fall over themselves to tell you that the type of trends I look at are irrelevant because “it all depends where the pace in the race is”.  That has a bearing obviously, though generally it is their idleness that conveniently draws them to that conclusion! If the experts prove to be right over and above my viewpoint this time around, LAUGH A MINUTE (drawn 3) could make yours truly eat his words on this occasion.

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Favourite factor: 10 of the 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions which is a fair record in this competitive event (four successful market leaders in the last 11 years), especially as just three places are up for grabs in this cavalry charge.  These results exclude last year’s 7/2 favourite which was withdrawn just before the start before a new market could be formed.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Requinto Dawn (good to soft)

 

Draw factor (six and a half furlongs):

16-3-22 (19 ran-good)

20-21-8 (22 ran-good

20-11-6-10 (21 ran-good)

15-17-21 (21-good to soft)

10-7-6 (21 ran-good)

13-4-19 (21 ran-good)

4-12-2 (21 ran-good)

21-4-1 (19 ran-good to firm)

16-17-9 (21 ran-soft)

7-20-13 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)

12-17-19 (22 ran-good)

5-15-13 (22 ran-good)

17-18-21 (21 ran-good)

22-20-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

4-10-3 (22 ran-good)

6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

11-4-20 (22 ran-good)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last eleven renewals, whilst horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-1 have won nine contests during the last twelve years.  Just one four-year-old has been declared this time around (wake up and smell the coffee trainers) and having dug a deep hole for myself by including so many horses in the first five races in my Placepot permutation, I am left hoping that AL NEKSH can maintain the good run of vintage representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Ten of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale during which time, two winners have emerged.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Thursday – followed by number of winners at Doncaster on this corresponding day during the last six years:

9 runners—Richard Fahey (4 winners)

5—Richard Hannon (-)

3—Ralph Beckett (2)

3—Karl Burke (-)

3—Mick Channon (1)

3—Mark Johnston (-)

3—Joseph O’Brien (-)

2—Luca Cumani (4)

2—Keith Dalgleish (-)

2—Tim Easterby (-)

2—James Fanshawe (-)

2—William Haggas (2)

2—Paul Midgley (1)

2—Aidan O’Brien (1)

2—Kevin Ryan (1)

2—David Simcock (1)

2—Richard Spencer (-)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £138.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners- 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Epsom: £42.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Hexham: £479.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2017

Tuesday's Result :

3.15 Goodwood : Golden Salute @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 : Tracked leaders, challenged 2f out, ridden and every chance 1f out, held by winner inside final furlong, kept on but beaten by three quarters of a length...

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Starshell @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This one basically revolves around trainer Sir Mark Prescott, whose sub-4/1 handicappers are 9/18 (50%) SR) for 4.82pts (+26.8%ROI) in the past 30 days. A yard in form is always a good start for an SotD selection, but I feel you'd want a bit more than that, so with that in mind, I've three angles at play based on the trainer's success over the last six seasons...

  1.  In Class 6 handicaps, his runners are 68/222 (30.6% SR) for 112.6pts (+50.7% ROI), with those running in Apprentices' Handicaps winning 5 of 13 (38.5%) for 9.33pts (+71.8%)
  2. In Class 3 to 6 Flat handicaps in the July to October period, his 2/3 yr old males are 53/121 (43.8% SR) for 49.9pts (+41.2% ROI), with September producing 19 winners from 37 (51.4%) for profits of 39.1pts (+105.7%)
  3. And his Flat handicappers dropping down a grade are 32/93 (34.4% SR) for 37.7pts (+72.8% ROI)

...quantifying... a 1pt win bet on Starshell @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from five firms at 5.40pm on Wednesday: the choice is yours but for those quick enough or able to do : Bet365 are going 3/1 BOG! For what it's worth, I'm also on Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!