Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 3.00 Brighton
- 5.52 Leopardstown
- 6.15 Sandown
- 6.30 Chepstow
- 7.52 Leopardstown
...from which, I'm going to look at race 17 of this year's Racing League, the 6.30 Chepstow, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...
This looks like a really open contest with only fast finishing Alpine Girl coming here off the back of a win. She scored at Salisbury almost four weeks ago and now seeks a hat-trick having also won at Lingfield in June. Ingra Tor, Muscika and Gis A Sub all had top 3 finishes last time out.
Dolly Gray, Connies Rose and Havana Rum have all won two of their last six outings and Gis A Sub was a winner two starts ago, but Gisburn, Ingra Tor, Eminency, Coup de Force and Muscika are on losing runs of 9, 12, 13 , 7 and 12 races respectively.
Gisburn does drop down a class here, though and Eminency is down two grades, so that might help their causes, but both Alpine Girl and Gis A Sub are up two classes here. Havana Rum is denoted as being a fast finisher and at just seven days since his last race, he's the quickest turned back out, but all ten have raced at least once in the last seven weeks.
All ten have also won at least once over today's trip, but only two have run/won here at Chepstow. Coup de Force is 1 from 1 here, having scored over 5f on just her second career start way back in June 2021, whilst Connies Rose is 5 from 18 at this venue comprising of 3 wins from 6 at 5f, 1 win from 4 at 7f and 1 win from 8 over this 6f course and distance. She has also made the frame in 6 of her 13 defeats here and her last four results here read 3213 and those are included in the 2-year form shown on Instant Expert below...
..and from a mediocre set of win figures, Connies Rose probably edges it and she's certainly one of the ones standing out on the place data too. Gis A Sub has had enough chances at class/trip already and I suspect another failure to make the frame here. From a win perspective alone, many of these have struggled to get home over today's trip, but with most of them having decent place results, it might just be a poor race.
On the face of it, there doesn't appear to be a huge advantage from stall positioning...
...but closer inspection suggests that if you were given a choice, you'd take stalls 1 or 2...
..but a look at the pace/draw heat map leads me to believe that pace will be more key to the result here than the draw will...
...and our Pace Analyser backs this thought up...
So, we need to try to work out where the pace in the race might be and if we've got a front-runner drawn low or high, then they should be in the mix. We do this by looking back over the field's last few races...
...where the low-drawn Connies Rose is likely to lead the way.
Summary
This is a tricky contest to call, but Connies Rose is the course specialist and scored best on Instant Expert. She's got a low draw and will set the tempo of the race and I think if all goes to plan, she could at least nick a place from the front. Her results this year (282212314) suggest that she generally fails to hang on for the win, but seven places from nine says she could be an E/W option and at 14/1 with bet365 at 4.45pm on Wednesday, that looks very tempting indeed.
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