Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 2.50 Yarmouth
- 4.00 Brighton
- 4.45 Nottingham
- 6.15 Sandown
- 7.00 Chepstow
- 8.05 Sligo
...the best of which (on paper) would appear to be race 11 of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground...
Gordon Grey is a four-race maiden, but came close to getting off the mark on his handicap debut (2nd crack today) last time out and Feel The Need has failed to win any of his last eight starts after scoring on just his second outing. The other six runners here have at least one win from their last five efforts with Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker (hcp debut here) and bottom weight I Still Have Faith all winning last time out; the latter actually comes here on a hat-trick whilst Totnes is 3 from 7.
She's Hot is the only runner to have raced at Class 3 last time around, as Shahbaz, Totnes, Feel The Need and Old Smoke are all up from Class 4, whilst Gordon Greym Miss Dolly Rocker And I Still Have Faith are up two classes.
It's a handicap debut for Miss Dolly Rocker and a 2nd handicap run for Gordon Grey, of course, whilst Feel The Need wears a hood for the first time. None of these have been away from the track for much more than a month, so we should have no rustiness, She's Hot is turned back out the quickest, but even she will have had nine days rest.
None of the field have won (or even ran) here at Chepstow before, but Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker and I Still Have Faith have all won over today's trip, even if Totnes did it on the A/W.
Sadly, our free feature, Instant Expert, doesn't have much relevant data, but this is what we do have under expected conditions...
None of the field have won at this grade before, so the rise in class most face might not be too relevant here and I think we might get a better picture if we look at their records in a lower grade...
...where Totnes looks strong albeit on A/W form. Shahbaz hasn't won any of his last four, but remains 5lbs above his last winning mark, although he was a runner-up only beaten by a neck off this mark in his last race. Mind you, he won't have Frankie Dettori driving him home today, which makes life tougher. Gordon Grey, however, is eased 3lbs despite only going down late by three quarters of a length a fortnight ago, which might give him a chance here. He's drawn relatively low in stall 3, but it would appear that stall 5 and higher is the place to be...
...with those races above tending to be a bit of a struggle for hold-up horses...
...and that doesn't bode well for a few of this field, especially Feel The Need and I Still Have Faith, if their past four outings are anything to go by...
...making our pace/draw heat map looks like this...
Summary
On form, it was Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker, and I Still Have Faith who appeared to be the pick of the pack, Totnes, I Still Have Faith and possibly She's Hot were the takeaways from Instant Expert. I Still Have Faith, Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot seem best favoured by the draw, whilst the pace/draw heat map looked like better news for Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot.
As is often the case with the totting-up procedure, you get the same names mentioned over and over and five horses are listed above, so I'm going to rule Feel The Need, Gordon Grey and Old Smoke out of the running. The issue now is that any of the five remaining could go on and win, but there's no stand-out candidate.
The 4pm market had my five as follows...
...and the most obvious bet for me would be to back She's Hot on an Each Way basis. She's back up in trip (was a runner-up the last time she tackled 1m2f) and she's not stepping up in class.
Shahbaz looks short at 3/1 with only 1 win in 10, but a 60% place strike rate, he's more of a placer than a winner for me. Totnes is 3 from 4 on the A/W, but his Flat form reads 8433 (placed just once).
I Still Have Faith could be the one to back as the winner, he's in great form, gets weight all round, has a good jockey on board, is drawn higher enough, but might need to press on sooner, whilst Miss Dolly Rocker might also surprise one or two here. She has been more consistent than spectacular, but won last time out on soft ground, gets the trip and is drawn in stall 6. She might get an easy lead and if that happens, she's not a bad option for the places, if I could get better than 13/2.
Shortly after publishing the post, 9/1 became available about Miss Dolly Rocker, so a small E/W bet is an option.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
