Tag Archive for: Clive Cox

Clive Cox planning attack on big juvenile prizes with star pair

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Clive Cox is keen to see if star juveniles A Bit Of Spirit and Coppull can bag more big-race success in the two-year-old division in the final third of the season.

A Bit Of Spirit returned to winning ways with a battling display at Sandown to come out on top in a four-way finish to the Solario Stakes and with the Lambourn handler still very much on a high from that Group Three triumph, the next step of the youngster’s career could involve a move up to Group One company.

“He’s come out of the race really well and we were delighted with the determination and courage he showed, it was a really pleasing success,” said Cox.

“We’ve got to decide where we’re going next now, but he’s shown he doesn’t mind a bit of ease in the ground.

A Bit Of Spirit (second left) winning at Sandown
A Bit Of Spirit (second left) winning at Sandown (Steven Paston/PA)

“He’s in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere in France and in the Dewhurst, but we’ll allow him this week and then move forward accordingly.

“We’ve got choices and they’re all available. We’ve had such a dry summer and with the weather just beginning to take a turn, we might just watch and feel how everything pans out.

“We’re all still very much on a high from the success at the weekend.”

While A Bit Of Spirit’s next target is still to be determined, it appears Richmond Stakes scorer Coppull will bid to get back on track in Newmarket’s Middle Park Stakes later this month after finishing fifth in a red-hot Prix Morny when last seen.

“The idea would be to head to the Middle Park,” continued Cox. “He’s less proven on an easier surface and since coming home from France we’ve been a bit gentler with him but I’m sure we can resume a positive approach with him soon and look forward to the Middle Park as our next intended target.”

Coppull (right) winning the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood
Coppull (right) winning the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood (Andrew Matthews/PA)

He went on: “It was very very quick ground over there in Deauville. We were drawn on a wing with the American horse (Outfielder) on the other side. We were thinking he would go and make the running and we were caught a little bit wide and he was a bit too keen and to be fair, the ground was quick enough for him.”

Cox will also go in search of further two-year-old riches with Song Of The Clyde who will now take a well-known path to Doncaster’s Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes on September 11 after already picking up one huge bounty with victory at York last month.

The Middleham Park Racing-owned son of Sergei Prokofiev cashed in over £300,000 in prize-money when giving the Beechdown Stables handler a third-straight win in the Harry’s Half Million By Goffs sales race.

“I think he’s well enough qualified for the Weatherbys race at Doncaster and it’s six and a half, which I think will be within his compass,” said Cox.

“That will be our intended route and would mirror the same step we took with Dragon Leader who won the same race at York in 2023 before running very well (to finish second) in the Doncaster race.”

A Bit Of Spirit shows plenty of heart in thrilling Solario finish

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A Bit Of Spirit continued Clive Cox’s good recent run when coming out on top in a tremendous four-way finish to the BetMGM Solario Stakes at Sandown.

The most experienced runner in the field having had four previous starts, Rossa Ryan set out to put that experience to good use by heading to the front in the Group Three affair.

He looked something of a sitting duck two furlongs out, as Royal Ascot winner Humidity, Brian Meehan’s Oceans Four and eventually Pacific Avenue, who was off the bridle a long way from home, made it a four-way go, each of them briefly looking the likely winner at some stage.

Pacific Avenue was first to fold and finished a clear fourth, albeit beaten less than half a length, while Oceans Four was leaning into Humidity by now, but was marginally in front of him. A Bit Of Spirit battled back, however, and crucially had his head down where it mattered.

A photo was called, and it was Cox – who won a valuable prize at York last week with Song Of The Clyde – who heard his horse called the winner. Oceans Four crossed the line in second and the Andrew Balding-trained Humidity in third, but those placings were reversed by the stewards

Cox said: “He’s got remarkable courage and really digs deep. He’s so tough, I think he was beaten for a minute and has got back up and I’m so proud.

“We had no idea if he would cope with condition this easy and certainly we haven’t seen any ground like this all summer, but he’s all heart and so tough and I’m very pleased.

“He’s done nothing but improve with confidence and with that confidence he has displayed more ability, but the fighting quality has been there from the get go.

“Even on his first start he showed those qualities and even though he was quite green at that stage he’s got more battle-hardened now and is displaying more and more courage.

“Rossa was great there and he had all confidence he would handle the ground and it was proved rightly that was the case. I’m thrilled he’s taken this step today.”

A Bit Of Spirit holds a plethora of entries for top two-year-old contests in the latter stages of the season and Cox is now keen to continue aiming high.

He added: “I’m pleased to enjoy today and I think he’s a tough, hardy two-year-old so we can keep pushing with that in mind.

“Now we know he handles the ground we can plot accordingly and he’s got all the options wide open.

“He’s well entered and he’s in the Royal Lodge, but I’m not sure if we would prefer to stay at seven furlongs and he’s in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere in France and all those races. I’m just thrilled we can discuss all the options and hopefully make the right decisions.

“From next year’s point of view, we probably stepped up to a mile early enough at Salisbury but the fact he can go on soft ground gives me confidence we can keep going this year and hopefully he may develop further next year.

“I’m delighted for the owners (Paul and Clare Rooney) who have been big supporters and it’s nice for them to have a horse like this for the big stage. It’s a joy to train nice horses for nice people and a privilege to make a living out of a passion really.”

Song Of The Clyde in tune for another big sales race win for Clive Cox

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Clive Cox ruled the Harry’s Half Million By Goffs at York once again as Song Of The Clyde came out on top.

The Middleham Park Racing-owned colt was ridden by Rossa Ryan and settled into a position at the fore of the 21-strong field in the early stages as a 15-2 shot.

As the race progressed he did not falter, putting his head down to lengthen towards the line and give his stable a third successive win in the richly-endowed sales race.

Cox said: “That was wonderful, what are the odds of winning it three times in a row with 400 horses in the sale each time?

“It’s such a good incentive this race and Harry Beeby was a good friend of mine, but the whole concept of such good prize-money is what is energising it and it’s amazing to get it right with this fella.

“We liked him, he grew an awful lot and had a bit of size and scope as a yearling, but he’s got such a wonderful mind as well and when he won at Chester I was really pleased as he jumped up two gears.

“He ran really well with a penalty at Newbury, the drier ground helped him here and he’s really going forwards in the right direction.”

The trainer’s 2023 winner, Dragon Leader, went on to finish second in the similarly valuable Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes at Doncaster the following month.

When asked if Song Of The Clyde could follow the same path, Cox added: “He could well do. We’ll see how he comes back, but those sort of prizes are available and he’s well qualified, so I would say that would be a possible target.

“I think he could be a horse that can look forward to a bright future from here – he’s not just about the sales races. We’ve been able to get him here good and sharp and ready to go, but I undoubtedly see him going on as a three-year-old. He’s got size and scope and a wonderful mind.”

Boston Dan filled the runner-up spot, beaten three-quarters of a length, and his trainer Richard Fahey said: “He ran a blinder, we were delighted with him.

“I thought two down we were going to win but obviously the winner just picked up and kept going.

“It was a good result, a great result for the owners. He’s in the sales race at Doncaster and all the others so we’ll see where he ends up.”

Cox has Coppull booked for Prix Morny mission

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After lighting up a gloomy Goodwood with his Richmond Stakes triumph, it could be next stop Deauville for Coppull, as Clive Cox eyes a raid on the Sumbe Prix Morny on Sunday week.

Cox landed the Morny with Reckless Abandon in 2012 and a cross-Channel trip with the exciting son of Bated Breath would represent a “well-trodden path” for the handler, who also saddled Golden Horde to finish third in the French Group One after winning the Richmond.

“He’s in great form and we were very pleased that race took place before the rain fell at Goodwood,” said Cox, reflecting on his colt’s Group Two success on what was a miserable afternoon subsequently interrupted by heavy rainfall and lightning.

“I’ve been delighted with how he has come out of that and all being well he will head to the Prix Morny where he won’t be penalised for his success, it’s a well-trodden path.

“I would be very hopeful conditions remain dry and even though his sister has won on soft ground he has very much been at home on a quicker surface.”

Coppull’s two-length triumph over Aidan O’Brien’s Puerto Rico confirmed the promise of his fine third in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and it is the form of that contest – with recent Phoenix Stakes scorer Power Blue behind in fifth – which is convincing Cox he has a smart juvenile on his hands.

Connections all smiles - despite the weather!
Connections were all smiles despite the weather at Goodwood (PA)

“His form was boosted again at the weekend by the Amo horse who was behind us at Ascot and I see no reason to be anything but pleased with the progress our horse is making,” continued Cox.

“He took the step up to Group Two in his stride and that has vindicated a further step up at this stage.”

Among the Morny opposition is set to be the Wesley Ward-trained Outfielder, who is part-owned by MLB Hall of Famer Jayson Werth, who has recently played a starring roll in the Netflix series ‘Race for the Crown’.

Spirit willing ally for Cox in search of Stonehenge prize

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A Bit Of Spirit will bid to regain the winning thread when he returns to the familiar territory of Salisbury to step up to a mile in the British Stallion Studs EBF Stonehenge Stakes on Wednesday.

Clive Cox’s talented youngster impressed at the Wiltshire track when defying a penalty there on his second start, and after being narrowly denied when upped in class for Ascot’s Pat Eddery Stakes he now tries his hand once again at Listed level, against just two rivals.

Although low in numbers, however, the race is not devoid of quality and Cox has the utmost respect for John and Thady Gosden’s Vintage Stakes runner-up Morris Dancer, who looks set to present a stern challenge in a race the Lambourn handler won with Cobh in 2020.

“Obviously there’s only three runners, but there is healthy competition and Morris Dancer was a very respectful second in the Group Two at Goodwood,” said Cox.

“I’m very happy though that my fellow is in good form and he ran a blinder at Ascot. He’s a course winner at Salisbury as well so I’m relishing the opportunity to run him and fingers crossed he can run well.

“We always thought he could take the step up to a mile and this seems like a sensible opportunity on a course he has won at. He’s hit the line really well each time he has run, so I see no reason not to go to a mile and I really hope it is in his compass.”

The Stonehenge Stakes is one of two Listed events on the Salisbury card, with a field of nine assembled for the British Stallion Studs EBF Upavon Fillies’ Stakes.

Ralph Beckett’s Revoir was not disgraced in the Oaks on her penultimate start and is fancied to be one of the leading players, with Owen Burrows’ Azaniya going in search of a hat-trick after wins in a Newmarket novice event then a Windsor handicap.

Coppull braves Goodwood downpour in Richmond Stakes

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Clive Cox won the Markel Richmond Stakes for the third time in seven years as Coppull ran out a comfortable winner at Goodwood, in a race run in torrential rain.

Following on from Golden Horde in 2019 and Supremacy 12 months later, Cox bided his time with the son of Bated Breath after a meritorious run at Royal Ascot.

He finished third behind Gstaad in the Coventry Stakes there and paid the winner a handsome compliment, always looking in control under David Probert.

Aidan O’Brien’s Puerto Rico finished second for the third race in a row, but never looked like getting on terms with the two-length winner.

Eve Johnson Houghton’s Havana Hurricane was last at the halfway stage and while he did make plenty of progress, his run eventually flattened out and he finished third.

Cox said: “I was worried about soft ground because he’s got such a beautiful action on a nice surface. He’s very quick and did that really well.

“I’m still not sure he’ll go on really soft ground so if we’d been in the next race it would have been harder work, but he’s still very good and he showcased that today.

“I think he’s very gifted and he’s a proper six-furlong horse so usual plans from here, Middle Park will be the end goal.”

O’Brien said of Puerto Rico: ‘‘I’m very happy with that. It was a lovely run and I’d say he’d be happy going up to seven furlongs.”

Johnson Houghton felt the rain had already got into the ground, blunting Havana Hurricane’s speed.

She said: “The ground was just a bit loose and that impacted on his turn of foot, but he’s run a lovely race.

“I’m really pleased, the horse in front is rated 102 and the horse in front of him is rated 104 – we’ve turned the form around with Maximised so I’m happy.

“He tries really hard, he’s an absolute legend and we love him.”

Coppull on course for Richmond test

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Clive Cox is relishing the opportunity to unleash Coventry Stakes third Coppull in the Markel Richmond Stakes, as he seeks a third success in the Qatar Goodwood Festival contest.

The Lambourn handler landed back-to-back victories of the Group Two event with Supremacy and Golden Horde respectively in 2019 and 2020 and has bided his time with his latest candidate after the son of Bated Breath outran odds of 66-1 at Royal Ascot.

“I was really pleased with his effort in the Coventry and I just wanted to give him a little bit of time as he’s still developing,” said Cox.

“He’s done nothing but please so far and this is another big step, but we really like him.

“It’s nice to be heading to these races with horses in form.”

Cox is well known for his exploits in the juvenile division and has another smart youngster on his hands in the form of A Bit Of Spirit, who may have lost his unbeaten record when touched off in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes on Friday but left Ascot with his reputation enhanced.

“I’m very happy and he’s come out the race well and he’s another highly regarded horse we are happy is heading the right way,” continued Cox.

“On a big, wide open track it would have been nice if the winner (Time To Turn) had come a bit closer to us in the finish, but William (Buick, winning rider) knew exactly what he was doing and we were witness to that at Newbury first time out.

“He (A Bit Of Spirit) gets seven furlongs as well, we’ll just give him a few days before we figure out what we do. He’s a very pleasing two-year-old who we hope keeps going.”

Weather might prove key to Diligent Harry’s bid for third time lucky

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Clive Cox is on weather watch as Diligent Harry eyes a first turf success in the Hackwood Stakes at Newbury.

The seven-year-old, who has twice been runner-up in the Group Three, was most recently seen winning the Chipchase Stakes at the same level on Newcastle’s all-weather track.

He is a eight-time winner on synthetic surfaces but despite placed runs at the highest level on turf, he is yet to get his head in front in 16 starts over both five and six furlongs.

Should the weather allow he will aim to put that right on Saturday, where success would be well deserved for a horse that is clearly a popular campaigner.

“Diligent Harry is entered at the weekend, we’re on a bit of a watching brief with the weather so we’ll have to see what the ground is like,” said Cox,

“I’m very pleased with him, his win at Newcastle was very special.

“He is yet to perform quite to the same level on turf, though he is Group One and Group Two-placed.

“He’s certainly as good as ever in his seventh year, he’s a real yard favourite and one of those horses you become really close to.”

He added: “I would say he’ll be on his travels later in the year, he just took a bit of time to come into himself this spring for whatever reason, but he’s really showing he’s in a good place at the moment and we’ve got unfinished business here first.”

Ghostwriter taken for observation after ‘freak’ pre-race accident

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Ghostwriter was taken to Newmarket Equine Hospital for further observation after rearing up in the pre-parade ring prior to his planned appearance in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes.

Bought by Kia Joorabchian’s Amo Racing operation for £2million on the eve of Royal Ascot, Clive Cox’s stable star made a promising start for his new connections when third in the Hardwicke Stakes.

The four-year-old was set to go off the hot favourite for the Group Two feature on day one of the July meeting, but had to be withdrawn after a ‘freak’ pre-race spill.

Cox said: “It was a freak accident, we hadn’t even done the girths up, we’d just put the pads on him and I’m not even sure what startled him really.

“He reared up and lost his footing and sat right on his rump behind. He was definitely lame as a consequence, so he was taken back to the stable yard and immediately shipped to the NEH (Newmarket Equine Hospital) for further observation.

“Hopefully it’s nothing more than bruising, that would be the first opinion of the vets, but we’re going to keep him at the vets overnight just to be absolutely sure. He’s got the right people around him just in case.

“You couldn’t make it up and it was nobody’s fault – it was just freaky. I think he just lost his balance.”

Ghostwriter going for Princess of Wales’s Stakes gold

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Trainer Clive Cox considers the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes as too good an opportunity to pass up with his stable star Ghostwriter.

Although without a victory since the autumn of his juvenile campaign, the four-year-old has run some excellent races in defeat at the highest level since, last season finishing third behind City Of Troy in both the Coral-Eclipse and the Juddmonte International.

Having kicked off this year by finishing fourth in Dubai and then sixth in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, Ghostwriter was sold for £2million on the eve of Royal Ascot and made a promising start in the colours of Kia Joorabchian’s Amo Racing operation by picking up the bronze medal in the Hardwicke.

Cox recently raised next month’s Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga as a likely target for the Invincible Spirit colt, but is more than happy to take in Thursday’s Group Two feature at Newmarket on the way.

“It was an early entry that wasn’t filling and it made perfect sense. It doesn’t interrupt any plans already made, so I’m very happy we’re in it,” said the Lambourn handler.

“He’s come out of Ascot very well, I’m very happy with him and it doesn’t impinge on plans to go to America at all.

“He’s shown a very good level of course form – he won his maiden on the July course and has also won on the Rowley Mile, so Newmarket is a place he handles well and I’m looking forward to it.”

Arabian Crown is one of two runners for Charlie Appleby
Arabian Crown is one of two runners for Charlie Appleby (Nigel French/PA)

Ghostwriter is set to renew rivalry with John and Thady Gosden’s Palladium, who was one place and little over a length behind him in the Hardwicke, while Charlie Appleby saddles both Arabian Crown and El Cordobes.

He told www.godolphin.com: “El Cordobes is coming back in distance from York, where we feel he did not stay the 14 furlongs. He has a bit to find on the book but, back at this trip, he should be competitive, and the quick ground will be no problem.

“Arabian Crown has been gelded since his last start and stepping back up to a mile and a half will suit. If he can recapture some of his earlier form, he is sure to be a player.”

The quintet is completed by James Owen’s Wimbledon Hawkeye, who was last seen finishing fourth in the King Edward VIII Stakes and lines up as the sole three-year-old in the field.

“He’s very well, he’s been training great. Everything has been very straightforward and we’re really looking forward to the race,” said Owen.

“He’s got a good amount of resolution, he’s coming out of his races well and he holds his form.

“He’s against the older horses but he gets a nice allowance for that, so it will be really interesting.

“Fingers crossed it’s a nice opportunity for him.”

Ghostwriter booked for Saratoga assignment

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Clive Cox is looking forward to crossing the Atlantic with Ghostwriter, who appears set for another taste of international competition in Saratoga’s Sword Dancer Stakes next month.

The son of Invincible Spirit ran with credit in the Middle East in the spring, finishing fourth in the Dubai Turf in his first race outside of Europe and having again performed admirably when stepped up in trip for the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, Cox is now keen to head Stateside on August 9.

Cox said: “Ascot was a solid run which opens up more possibilities now going a mile and a half. At the moment we intend to take him to America at the beginning of August – that race is very much on the agenda and we’re looking forward to making plans for that.

Ghostwriter is one Clive Cox's stable stars
Ghostwriter is one Clive Cox’s stable stars (Mike Egerton/PA)

“He relished the travelling when we took him to Dubai in the spring and I’m hoping we can travel with a little bit of confidence this time and it seems a very logical and sensible plan.”

Ghostwriter was subject of plenty of headlines prior to his run at Royal Ascot having been bought for £2million on the eve of the summer highlight by Kia Joorabchian’s Amo Racing operation.

In the race itself, he found just Charlie Appleby’s globetrotting Rebel’s Romance and Joseph O’Brien’s dual Group One scorer Al Riffa too good, finishing third, a performance that proves he remains a reliable model of consistency in elite company.

Cox added: “I think the Hardwicke was a Group Two in name only and it was full of very creditable Group One performers really, but I was thrilled he hit the line well and proved the mile and a half trip is going to be suitable.

“I think he’s become very professional and is also supremely consistent, his race record is really admirable and I’m pleased to be a part of his training and very happy with how he’s come out of Ascot as well.”

Diligent Harry is Chipchase hero for Clive Cox and Saffie Osborne

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Clive Cox was thrilled to see his high-class sprinter Diligent Harry bounce back to his best with a front-running victory in the JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle.

Placed at Group One level in the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai last year, the seven-year-old had failed to recapture that form in four previous outings this season, most recently finishing fifth on All-Weather Championships Finals Day at Newcastle on Good Friday.

The seven-year-old was a 16-1 shot on his return from over two months off and after a fast start, Diligent Harry quickly built up a significant lead over the chasing back and found more once challenged by Annaf to claimed the Group Three prize by a neck under an excellent ride from Saffie Osborne.

Lambourn-based Cox did not make the long trip north to Gosforth Park, but was in jubilant mood when contacted: “That was brilliant, Saffie has been in to ride him in his last couple of bits of work and it’s great when a plan comes together.

“He went to Dubai last year and ran a great race in the Group One there, but it’s tough at the top.

“We always live in hope, he loves the all-weather and he’s still pretty good, so today was a big target and to go all the way up to Newcastle and win a race like that is very satisfying.

“He’s won a Group Three now and we’ll place him accordingly.”

Osborne added: “Clive was really positive about his chances. I started going to Clive’s a couple of months ago, I rode this horse for the last couple of weeks and he’s a seriously classy horse.

“He’s a horse that was third in a Group One, he jumped out of the stalls today and Clive was keen for me not to wrestle him, so I was quite happy to let him slide on.

“I was able to get a breather into him and I always felt I was holding on to enough. He’s seriously tough and as soon as he felt the other horse coming to his girth he was always pulling out a bit more.”

Racing Systems: Flat Trainers, Part 3

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In the past couple of articles - here and here - I have been researching and sharing some trainer-based systems for flat racing (turf and all weather combined), writes Dave Renham. And in this piece, I have one more group of flat trainer systems to share. Once again, the focus will be on UK racing from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair Starting Price (less 5% commission).

As a researcher and writer I feel my job is to share facts and figures and, from there, the reader can make an informed choice. Systems do not have to be rigid: we can use them that way of course, but we have options that allow the selection process to be more flexible. With that said, here are the final four of twelve trainer angles for the flat.

 

Ralph Beckett – The 3yo system

Ralph Beckett was discussed in an earlier article when the focus was solely all weather racing. Here is a different system which could be employed on both the turf and the sand. It has very few rules:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Ralph Beckett
  3. 3yo runners

I have discussed before that in general the simpler the system the better – this is a case in point. Here are the overall stats for the last 13 seasons:

 

 

These are sound figures overall, especially across nearly 3000 qualifiers, and the system has produced returns in excess of 8%. Here are the stats broken down by year. The graph below shows the yearly Return on Investment % to BSP. I am using ROI% as I tend to do with bigger sample sizes:

 

 

There have been nine winning years and four losing ones, with three of the losing years back in 2012 or before. The last five years have all returned a profit so there's some good overall consistency, which is backed up when we look at the yearly win strike rates of these 3yos:

 

 

In twelve of the 13 years, Beckett has returned a strike rate of 15% and above, and only in 2009 did he not exceed this figure (SR was 14.1% in that year). This gives greater confidence in the base line figures.

Digging a little deeper we can see there is further consistency when we split the results by distance. Dividing into three we get the following:

 

 

All distance ranges have made a profit and the returns have been similar at that.

This angle in its raw form will give us a decent number of qualifiers each year. For me it is a case of looking at each qualifier on an individual basis and examining the races they are contesting in more detail. From there I will decide if the horse looks a value bet or not.

Andrew Balding – The 2yo non-handicap system

Andrew Balding has successfully followed in the footsteps of his father Ian starting back in 2003. His strike rate in all races is solid, averaging around the 15% mark, and he is at or near this figure year in, year out. The system I want to share with you relates to his juvenile runners. The rules are:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Andrew Balding
  3. 2yos in non-handicaps

 

This system has produced the following results:

 

 

That is an absolutely huge profit over the past 13 years. There have been a good number of bets again and here is the annual breakdown data, via Return on Investment (ROI%):

 

 

As can be seen from the upward spikes, there have been several extremely profitable seasons, with ten in the black and just three losing years. However, as you might suspect, this system has been blessed by several big-priced winners: in fact, ten winners have returned at a BSP of over 50.0! Clearly, then, a good proportion of the overall profits are down to these runners. The results are definitely a touch skewed.

However, before thinking this may not be the system for you, it should be noted that horses whose industry SP has been 10/1 or shorter have made a profit as well. OK, we are only talking about 9%, but if your shorter priced runners are making a profit, then I think this type of approach has ‘legs’. To reproduce the amazing profits of the past 13 years it will need the odd big-priced winner, but even if these are less frequent, there is a good chance this system will still make a long-term profit.

Finally I want to share the Balding stats in terms of ground conditions (going). He has been profitable on all types of turf going as well as making a profit on the sand:

 

 

Clive Cox – The 3yos in 3yo+ races system

Clive Cox has saddled over 850 winners and, last year, saw his highest tally of winners, 79. Indeed, since 2009, if you had backed ALL of his runners in every single race you would have made a profit of 8p in the £. Not bad considering the sample size is in excess of 5,200 runners. Also, six of the last seven years would have produced a blind profit which is impressive.

Clive Cox has done especially well with his three-year-old (3yo) runners since 2009, especially when they are racing in 3yo+ races. The system reads:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Clive Cox
  3. 3yos in 3yo+ races

Again, there are very few rules which, as I have stated before, is important for the logic to stand up. The overall results show good profits:

 

 

Looking at the annual breakdown, the below figures using BSP profit to £1 level stakes:

 

 

2009, 2010, 2017 and 2018 were all very profitable and these years are why the system has an overall profit. What is interesting, though, is that Cox has not really had any bad seasons. Even in 2019 and 2020 the losses were very modest considering the raw nature of this system. So, despite four seasons contributing to virtually all the profit margin, this system shouldn’t in my opinion be written off due to inconsistency. Whether it is the type of system for you, only you will know. Again my personal approach would be to highlight qualifiers using the rules and then take a more pragmatic approach by doing further research into the horses in question and their rivals in the highlighted race.

A couple of extra pointers: firstly Cox has done better at shorter distances (less than 1m 1f). Secondly, horses that finished in the first five last time have produced 126 winners from 609 runners (SR 20.7%) showing a profit of £299.44 (ROI +49.2%). Breaking the annual results down for this second subset of runners sees an impressive twelve winning years out of 13. Of course we need to ask, is using a last time out finish in the first five back-fitting? Possibly, but even with extra stipulation this angle still has very few rules. Also, if you had restricted to a finish in the first three last time out, the results would have been similar.

There is no easy answer sometimes to whether an extra rule or two is a good idea to a very simple system. If the additional rule(s) has logic then you could argue it either way; if it is not logical then there is no argument – it is definitely back-fitting!

Mick Appleby – The 3yo handicap system

Mick Appleby started training in the summer of 2010. He had just three winners that year followed by 15 in 2011. From 2012 his stable increased in size and, over the next two seasons (2013 & 2014), he saddled 101 winners. In the last five years, Appleby has saddled at least 90 winners each time.

The system is thus:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Mick Appleby
  3. 3yos in handicaps

 

Again a system with very few rules. They have produced some decent returns as we can see in the table below:

 

 

This time we have a slightly lower strike rate than the other angles I have shared, but in handicap races this is generally likely to be the case. Here is the annual breakdown.

 

 

It's a bit of a roller-coaster, truth be told. 2016 and 2021 were huge years but both had one very big-priced winner which helped the bottom line considerably. In 2016, Mick had a winner that effectively paid 253/1, while in 2021 he had one that paid around 194/1 (prices adjusted to account for commission). This takes the overall profit figure down to £246 which still equates to a tidy profit of 18p in the £.

Regarding outliers, Appleby had only one other winner that paid over 50/1 (it paid 70/1 after commission). Restricting the Oakham trainer's runners to an industry SP price of 14/1 or less, his figures remain good: 156 winners from 919 runners for a profit of £154.52 (ROI +16.8%).

Another point worth sharing is that his record is considerably better in 3yo only handicaps. In such contests, the strike rate increases to 14.2% and profits stand at £655.45 (ROI +94.7%). Overall it would have given a much smoother ride from a yearly perspective.

Most systems that solely use handicap races are likely to fluctuate somewhat and hence come with risk. Thereafter, it is the old risk / reward conundrum. For me, once again this system is a case where I would be noting the qualifiers and undertaking further research to determine whether a horse is a betting opportunity or not.

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So there you have it, the last four trainer systems from a group of 12. It will be interesting to see how they fare over the next two or three seasons. Time will tell.

- DR