As many of you will know I've been creating some Colossus tickets this week, which can be contributed to by anyone with a volition so to do. They're called syndicate tickets, and I've started a little diary on the forum.
But the forum is for Gold subscribers only, so I thought I'd copy it across to the main blog here, for this week at least.
If you don't know what I'm talking about then do check out this prior post which explains stuff.
OK, here's the story so far...
I thought I’d add a thread to the forum to reflect my thoughts on the various Colossus syndicates. Highs, lows and plenty of ‘close but no cigar’ moments sure to follow…
SUNDAY 15th JULY 2018
A pretty good start, with two payouts from three syndicates. We missed by one in the other, where the pool was not won. The payouts were £979.48 for an £80 ticket, and £398.88 for £216. The loser was a £108 ticket. So £404 staked, £1,378.36 returned, a profit of £974.36.
MONDAY 16th JULY 2018
Reality bites. On what was a very moderate Monday, I perhaps let the novelty take me away a little and might have been better served reigning the action to just a meeting or two. I felt pretty bad but, on reflection, we weren’t a million miles away from a decent payoff. Here’s what happened:
Win Pick 4 at Ayr: £192 staked, £70.40 returned (for 3 out of 4)
Place Pick 6 at Ayr: £108 staked, £0 returned – very frustrating, with both the winner and 3rd included on the P4. Naturally this ticket had the 4th, who had less money running on than the 3rd. Dividend was £364.36.
Place Pick 6 at Ripon: £216 staked, £92.64 returned. Chasing a few outsiders for a chance of taking the lot. It ended up very chalky (i.e. fancied runners all over the frame).
Win Pick 6 at Wolves: £144 staked, £6.60 returned. I called this ticket ‘Prayer mat job’, for good reason. Having left the favourite out of the first, I was mortified to see it win, and us out straightaway. Thereafter,
Place Pick 6 at Wolves: £180 staked, £0 returned. Again, left fav off the ticket and he won. The 3 picks in leg 1 finished 4th, 5th, 6th (of course), the 4th staying on, beaten a head for 3rd. Dividend paid £114.45, which he otherwise had x4 = £457.80
£840 staked on the day, £169.64 returned. Loss on the day of £670.36.
[N.B. As captain, I MUST take at least 10% of each ticket, so of course I do. My loss today was thus £67.04. Actually, it was more because I had some private bets which went west on a crappy Monday. I’m sure I used to say “don’t bet on Mondays”…]
Off to Beverley races tomorrow, so just an early syndicate most likely – will tweet it, or follow me on Colossus if you want to play.
Just catching up on yesterday’s events, as I was actually at Beverley for the irishbigracetrends.com Handicap and, more specifically, to catch up with my mate Tony McCormick – who runs said website – and his clan. Excellent fun as always.
TUESDAY 17th JULY 2018
Beverley Place Pick 6: This looked a competitive, if low grade, card, and so it transpired. We missed a couple of nice results in the first two races, but went through with two lines nevertheless. Leg 3 played out well with the winner and the third, and the well touted favourite, Foxy Boy, out of the frame (now 20 runs without a win!). Leg 4 was the first of two bankers, the odds-on Altra Vita bidding for a four-timer for Sir Mark Prescott, a trainer in excellent form and with a very very good record with LTO winners. Alas, the horse seemed to resent the very firm ground – not the only one who failed to cope with it – and veered wildly off a true line in the final furlong. It would be a surprise (to me at least) if we see this horse back in the near future. Naturally, the other two legs were landed.
A point on this, though it may sound a little “I’m all right, Jack”. I had a couple of other bets running through Altra Vita, and so I laid it for a place on Betfair at 1.27. It was a cheap insurance play and, as it turned out, saved me a few quid. I say this not to gloat (obviously), but rather to suggest to other players that it is a solid strategy in the second half of the sequence (or earlier if you’ve had a nice result early doors knocking out a lot of tickets/units).
One other tactical point here. These syndicates are ‘caveman’ tickets. That is, they’re a single ticket covering short-priced and long-priced, strong and weaker fancies, equally. Until I’m able to link tickets in the syndicate – something I’ve suggested to the Colossus guys – I adopt the following play when I like the favourite but don’t want to go out if it gets beaten out of the frame. Basically, I include the racecard number of the favourite and also ‘unnamed favourite’, as well as any other weaker fancies in the race. This way, if the jolly hits the board, I have a double line (specifically nominated horse, and unnamed favourite) from the race. Hopefully that makes vague sense: it’s essentially a means of managing the ‘unsophisticated’ nature of a caveman perm. £180 staked, £0 returned.
Killarney Win Pick 6: For some reason which, with hindsight I can’t really justify, I thought we’d have a crack at what looked a very trappy card with only a £10,000 guarantee. A 20/1 O’Brien second string in the opener confined this to the dusty bin and, though it was a lesson others paid to learn along with me, I think I’m comfortable that it will be a case of picking and choosing slots for the Win6 (most likely when there’s a solid rollover and/or some chalky looking races to play around). So, no more Win Pick 6’s for now. £194.40 staked, £0 returned.
No syndicates on Wednesday as I have other commitments, but there will be something on Thursday. I’ll tweet out on the geegeez_uk handle to anyone who might be interested. Looking to get back on the winning trail after a disappointing couple of days.
After a day off on Wednesday. it was back to biz on Thursday and a couple of Place Pick 6's.
THURSDAY 19th JULY 2018
Hamilton Place Pick 6: There looked to be a few vulnerable favourites on this card, just the sort I like to go at. But, as has been the case most of this week, they largely managed to find the frame anyway. Thus, the 20/1 second in the opener, and 6/1 and 9/1 winners in legs 4 and 5 were undone by strongly fancied horses falling in with them. Getting the 2nd fav out of the frame in the last was a result, though, and we made a modest profit on the bet. Stakes £192 Returned £327.96
Leicester Place Pick 6: A bombproof 1/16 shot in the opener made this a Pick 5 to all intents and purposes. Two out of three in leg 2 and the jolly nowhere looked promising. But it was a parade of frustration thereafter, as nothing but favourites from some pretty wide coverage made the frame for us. A return, but a loss on the bet. Stakes £180 Returned £65.60
On the day: Staked £372 Returned: £393.56
Got to keep chipping away.
Friday was a very early falling off of the Win Pick 6 wagon, but for good reason. The guarantee was £40,000 and I had a decent feeling about the 'shape' of the races.
FRIDAY 20th JULY 2018
Newbury Win Pick 6: Newbury is one of those courses where you often get wide open maiden/novice events in which it pays to go deep, and I was hanging our hat on that happening again. Not in the opening leg, which looked to be between the top two (second favourite won), but in leg two where there were 7/2 joint favourites. I went seven deep and we were rewarded with a 20/1 winner (beating a 16/1 shot, also on our ticket).
I also went seven deep in leg three, though this time the 2nd fav won. Still we had a nice position going into leg 4 in which we had just the favourite, Natalie's Joy. I had said on twitter that it was my intention to get our stakes back via cash out if we were still going at half way, and that's what I did.
40% of the ticket was cashed out for 90% of original stakes. We thus had 60% running into the last three legs.
Natalie's Joy was a good winner, so we were still rolling into the penultimate race and it was shaping up to be a big dividend. [We had played for 50p's, which were quarter stakes, so were attacking an original £10k pot, reduced to £6k after the cashout - by which time it was basically a free go].
Natalie meant we were guaranteed at least a 4/6 consolation and, after leg five, the best we could aim at was a 5/6 consolation as our three of the five runners ran 3rd/4th/5th behind the 10/1 outsider of the field. Bummer.
We had three of the five runners in the last as well, including the winner, who was the evens favourite. That impacted the consolation dividend but we still made a profit on the bet.
Betting anywhere else - totepool, etc - five out of six is a losing bet, or at best pays a scant consolation in jurisdictions like America. But here we were able to be 'wrong', albeit mostly right, and still make money on the wager thanks to cash out and consolation dividends.
Stakes £661.50 Returned £748.40
Still treading water in truth, but the value of the trading options were well highligted by today...
Loads of big jackpots to aim at on Saturday, but most of them filed under ‘way too hard’.
SATURDAY 21st JULY 2018
Newmarket Place Pick 6: Chasing a placepot at Newmarket that, ultimately, looked trickier than it was.
This was highlighted when the fav (Mr Wagyu) beat the 2nd fav in the race I had marked for a shock; and insult was added to injury with Rip Orff sneaking into the frame in the 5th leg and our second string failing to make the frame in the last.
In spite of all that, it was only a small loss in the end.
Stakes: £288 Returns: £207
Nothing on SUNDAY 22nd JULY, but a couple of decent rollovers slowly gathering pace, which might tease a prayer mat play on Monday…
Monday ended up being a write off as well, with my health - which rarely fails me - deciding to go 'all in' for a few days. In fairness, that's a daft comment given what some folks are nursing but I'm not in great shape and should have probably left it alone today, too. Today being...
TUESDAY 24th JULY 2018
Three afternoon strikes as follows...
Newcastle Place Pick 6: Big fields and a couple of what I felt might be pace collapses, especially in the last where I'd backed on hold up performer and 2-from-2 course placer, Top Offer. The jockey change probably didn't help and, long and short, we'd have turned a reasonable profit on the bet if he'd hit the board. He didn't. Losing bet. Staked £180 Returned £0
Ffos Las Place Pick 6: Small fields and trappy looking stuff; but, as so often recently on this rattling fast ground, surprises were few and far between. Even with five placed favourites we only recorded a negligible loss. Staked £240 Returned £228
Ffos Las Win Pick 4: I fancied this, with a seemingly bombproof pair atop the market in leg 1. I went narrow early, taking the top two in the betting in leg 1, and the favourite as a banker in leg 2, and then covering almost every permutation thereafter. So what happens? There was a 20/1 shock in the opener and the other three jollies all won. We did get a consolation which was a surprisingly generous half our stakes back. Staked £162 Returned £81.80
The evening was a tale of woe. Sometimes you go left when you should have gone right, and you go right when you should have gone left. Let's break it down:
Nottingham Place Pick 6: We were going well enough here, until the three horse race. I was comfortable taking two of the three, as I pretty much always do. Eliminating one cuts the cost by 50%, but of course it runs the risk of deep frustration. The source of frustration was habitual front-runner and odds-on favourite, who gifted a soft lead to the absentee from our ticket. The absentee accepted the invitation was gusto, relish and no little aplomb and prevailed by a predictably diminishing margin. It was a fine ride in a race where there was only one such. Sigh. Staked £216 Returns £0
Chelmsford Place Pick 6: This was rubbish, too. In truth, I'd be perfectly happy with both the Notts and Chelmo plays if it was solely my ticket, and so I supposed I have to be happy with them as syndicate tickets as well. Having got through a tricky-looking opener (8/1 8/1 12/1 the prices of the placed horses), and banked on the easy winner of leg 2, we were in good shape. I took my view in leg 3, and it was that Cenotaph was a serial disappointment and a shortie to very much oppose. While that may have been true during his tenure at Aidan O'Brien's, he seems rejuvenated since moving to Jeremy Noseda, for whom he is now two from two after what can only be described as a romp, five lengths the winning margin.
The three bullets I fired against him ran no better than third which, in a seven horse race, is not very good and not good enough. I also failed to find a placer from three darts in the next race; and the fact that after that tricky first leg the next five races all saw the favourite place kind of sums things up just now. Stakes £162 Returns £0
A bad day, and less fun that it has been. The average stake of syndicate members seems to be about £7 according to a little rough maths I did today. I'll be looking to hit a decent pot soon but, for that to happen, these jollies need to foxtrot oscar somewhat...!
Catching up on Wednesday and Thursday, and it was a mixed bag all right...
WEDNESDAY 25th JULY 2018
Lingfield Place Pick 6: Just one bet on Wednesday, mainly due to pressures of work. And it was a ballsy one, banking on the first two favourites before spreading out later on. As it turned out, the jolly in race two encountered all sorts of trouble in running, eventually staying on into fifth, beaten two necks and a head for second. Game over.
Stakes £160 Returns £0
THURSDAY 26th JULY 2018
Sandown Place Pick 6: A broad perm for smaller unit stakes and, after a result if leg 2, I was hopeful. But the dreaded curse of the placed favourite struck in the next three legs to generate a loss on stakes. Again. Sigh.
Stakes £288 Returns £91.10
Worcester Place Pick 6: This looked difficult in the first half and straightforward in the second, and that's the way I played it. Sadly, it turned out to be easy in both halves, with five favourites placed. The one unplaced jolly race saw the horse with comfortably the most tickets apart from the fav get up for second. More of the same for investors.
Stakes £126 Returns £77.80
Yarmouth Place Pick 6: At last, a bit of a result. And it was an unlikely one, though not a surprise, if you see what I mean. The first five favourites again made the frame, including to heavily odds on - wtf? - but I started my look at this 'pot in the last race, where I smelt a pace burn up involving the top of the market. That's how 16/1 outsider Grandfather Tom made our slip; and he was never there until the last strides. It made a handsome difference.
Stakes £259.20 Returns £1126.80
DAILY STAKE: £673.20 RETURN: £1295.70
OVERALL SYNDICATE STAKES £4393.10
OVERALL SYNDICATE RETURNS £4502.46
To tread water in such a chalky (favourite-biased) period is actually not bad. I've no plans to track things ongoing - not really got the time - but I will continue to check in on the forum with good beats and bad beats, and the occasional stinker to add balance (!)
In the meantime, do keep playing yourselves. I caught a £500 return from a £30 bet yesterday on the Win Pick 4, a lovely little bet if you have a view on at least two of the races in the quartet.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY 27/28 JULY
Identically staked Place 6 syndicates at York. Both copped, both paid significantly less than placepot, both topped up to placepot dividend.
That effectively means that we had the following:
Friday afternoon Stakes £568 (2 pools) Returns £524.50
Friday York Stakes £345.60 Returns £2846.40
Saturday York Stakes £345.60 Returns £2070.72
Profit to date: £4291.78
ROI to date: 75.93%
Unsustainable results, but very good to break out of the treading water zone. It can go the other way as well!!
p.s. If you want to build more sophisticated tickets of your own, this is the geegeez ticket builder. Read the instructions first!!
p.p.s. Details of how to get involved, if you'd like to, are below.
- You need a Colossus account. If you haven't got one, you can sign up here and Colossus will fund your account with the same amount you bet in your first 72 hours, up to a maximum of £100. YOU MUST USE THE REFER A FRIEND CODE TO GET THE BONUS (SEE BELOW).
- You can be a friend to geegeez by using the 'Refer A Friend' code, geegeez - Colossus will then send a small rebate to us from their takeout when you bet. They welcome winners and you absolutely do not need to lose for us to get our small commission. In fact, they give us a tiny bit more when you win, which is why I'm keen to promote them. So please, take down some of the big pots, would you?! 🙂
- Here's the signup link again (and thank you).
Joining one of my syndicates is easy. Click this link, choose which one you want to play and for how much, and that's it.
If the page says 'No syndicates available', that means it's filled up already. You can 'follow' me on there, and I'll also tweet out when I've created a syndicate ticket on the @geegeez_uk handle.
At this stage, I'm not committing to a particular time of day nor even that I will necessarily put syndicate tickets up (I also bet privately into some of these pools, and suggest/recommend any placepotters reading this do likewise).
But it is very likely there will be tickets to join if you'd like every day this week, and probably for every meeting - or at least as many as I have time to cover. [I do have some quite handy time-saving info-packed tools to call on... 😉 ]
It's going to be a fun few weeks, and will also be really interesting to see how tote fights back and how the TftT/Britbet story unfolds. Do join the party if it sounds like your kind of thing!