Tag Archive for: Dobbing

Introduction to Dobbing: Part 3

/in /by

This is the third in a short series of articles connected with betting on horse races in running, writes Dave Renham. In the first piece, I discussed the idea of DOBBING which essentially means ‘double or bust’. You either double your money or lose your stake. Just to recap, here is a worked example:

Imagine you back a horse at 20.0 for £5; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay the horse at half the odds for double the stake – so you set a lay at 10.0 for £10. If the horse hits 10.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £5 (less commission). If the horse loses but doesn’t hit 10.0 or lower then you lose your £5 stake.

In the second piece I looked at some in-play horse racing data on the flat and this time my attention switches to National Hunt racing. One could argue that National Hunt racing is easier to trade as the races are longer which generally allows the trader more time to make informed decisions. But does the data support that contention?

As before I am going to look at 20 months’ worth of recent UK data which is a very decent sample in terms of size. In fact, I started my research by splitting the data into two and looked at the overall NH DOBBING percentages for each group. One came out at 44.4%, the other at 44.3%. Hence, I feel we can be very confident that this data set will provide us with extremely accurate figures.

Dobbing Percentages by NH Race Type

My first port of call is to split the data into three race tyoe brackets: steeplechases, hurdle races and National Hunt Flat races (bumpers). Here are the findings:

 

 

There is not much difference between the three, but NH Flat races have offered the best chance of DOBBING, followed by chases and finally hurdle races. Most National Hunt Flat races are around two miles so it should be no surprise to see the DOB percentage at 45.9%. If you remember from the previous article the flat results for races of 17f+ saw the DOBBING percentage standing at 45.2%. Hence the NH Flat figure correlates positively with that.

Dobbing Percentages by Handicaps / Non-handicaps

Onto handicaps versus non-handicaps next and, for this data, I am excluding the NH Flat results (which are all non-handicaps) as we have that figure already. In the graph below I have shown the overall handicap versus non-handicaps splits, as well as then splitting this by chase races and hurdle races:

 

 

As can be seen in the chart above, horses are more likely to DOB in handicap races as opposed to non-handicaps. Meanwhile, handicap chases are the most successful DOBBING-wise although handicap hurdlers DOB only 1% below this figure. The lowest figure goes to non-handicap hurdle races where just 41.3% of horses successfully DOB.

 

Dobbing Percentages by Distance

When we looked at the distance splits on the flat in the second part of this series we saw that, as the distance increased, so did the DOBBING percentages. Here now is the National Hunt racing breakdown:

 

 

As we can see, the same pattern occurs here with the longer the race, the better the chance of a horse DOBBING. In the first article I had alluded to the fact that this might be the case. Races of two miles or less give us the lowest overall percentage (41.9%), whereas the longest distances of beyond three miles have seen horses DOB 46.9% of the time. There is a very strong linearity of improved DOB percentage as race distance increases.

It is interesting to note that races beyond three miles have seen a slightly higher percentage of DOBBERS in non-handicaps compared to handicaps, which is a surprise given the handicap/non-handicap stats I shared earlier. However, for the record, non-handicap chases at further than three miles have seen 48% of runners DOB. This is the highest figure based on distance parameters I have found to date.

Dobbing Percentages by Market Odds

Let's now look at the data in terms of Betfair Starting Price (BSP). For the flat data I used market rank rather than price and the flat DOB% stats were quite even although favourites (that were not odds on) had comfortably the highest figure in those findings. I felt it was worth changing it up a bit and using actual market prices, which is arguably a more accurate measure:

 

 

As with the market data from the flat there is no discernible pattern here. It does, however, look best to avoid the essential ‘no hopers’ priced over 500/1. However, it is surprising, to me at least, to see both the 50.01 to 100 price bracket and the 100.01 to 500 price bracket both hitting over 47%. I can’t explain that one, I’m afraid!

Dobbing Percentages by Courses

A look at courses now. Here are the DOB%s for each course, ordered highest to lowest:

 

 

There is quite a difference between the highest figure, at Newbury, 50.6%, and the lowest, Fakenham, 41.2%. What immediately strikes me is the difference in the configuration of these two tracks. Newbury is one of the biggest in terms of circumference being 1m 7f; Fakenham is at the other end of the scale at just one mile all the way round. Cartmel (one mile circumference) and Plumpton (1m 1f circumference) are other tight/sharp tracks that appear down the bottom of the DOBBING percentage list. Meanwhile near the top you have Ascot and Lingfield whose tracks measure 1m5f round, Cheltenham at 1m4f and Donny at 2m. Kelso which is in 4th spot does buck the trend though being just 1m1f in circumference.

Digging a little bit deeper, there could be something in this theory as I decided to find the average circumference of the top ten DOBBING% courses and compare that with the average circumference of the bottom ten. The top ten courses averaged out at 12.6 furlongs, while the bottom ten averaged out at over two furlongs shorter at 10.4 furlongs. Of course, a theory is simply a theory, but the numbers I have uncovered at least seem offer some support.

I need to add a proviso here that these stats come from only 20 months' worth of data. It is still a decent chunk of data for each course but, ideally, I would like four or five years’ worth.

 

National Hunt Horses with good past DOB%s

To finish this piece, I have tried to find a handful of horses that have, in the past, had a high DOB%. My hope is therefore that this will be replicated over the coming season. So here goes – there are nine in total and I have listed them in alphabetical order:

Ahoy Senor – Ahoy Senor is one of the top 3 mile chasers in the country. He has DOBBED in 11 of his 15 races, but with one of those races seeing him start odds on, this improves to 11 out of 14 (78.6%). In those remaining 14 races he has won five of them, but in six of the other nine he has still halved in price or better in running. I am guessing one of the key reasons for this DOBBING success is that he is habitual front runner. 14 of his 15 starts have seen him take the early lead.

Ashtown Lad – Ashtown Lad, trained by Dan Skelton, is a versatile runner who last season switched between hurdling and chasing. He has DOBBED 76.5% of the time (13 races out of 17). He has DOBBED in six of his seven chases, while in hurdle races it stands at seven out of ten. He has shown a mix of running styles with equal DOBBING success.

Before Midnight – Before Midnight is a 10-year-old gelding trained by Sam Thomas. His career DOB% stands at 75% with 18 DOBs from the 24 races when he has priced 2.02 or bigger. The slight concern is that his DOB percentage has been nearer the 50% mark when looking at the last 18 months or so, which is mainly down to a drop in form. However, he could now be well handicapped so it will be interesting to see what the 2023-24 season brings.

Brewinupastorm – Trained by Olly Murphy, Brewinupastorm has achieved 14 DOBs from 25 races, but this becomes 14 from 22 (63.6%) when you ignore his odds on runs (remember, odds on runners cannot dob because they cannot halve in price on Betfair). He has raced mainly over hurdles and his DOBBING percentage in hurdle races stands at a very impressive 75% (12 of 16 qualifying runs). He has raced nine times in the last two NH seasons DOBBING six times (66.7%).

French Dynamite – French Dynamite is an 8yo Irish chaser. He has achieved 13 DOBs from his 20 runs (65%), including ten in his last 12 (83.3%). He races up with the pace (led seven times, raced prominently 11 times, and held up twice) which may be a factor. Six wins helps, but overall, this horse seems to have very solid potential for keeping up a good DOB percentage this season.

Gatsby Grey – Gatsby Grey is a 7yo trained in Ireland by Oliver Kiernan with just 14 NH races under his belt. Of those 14 he has DOBBED in nine (64.3%). It is interesting to note, too, that he has never started shorter than 5.0 BSP. He has three wins to his name and his recent DOBBING record (since Nov 2022) stands at five from his last seven (71.4%).

Guy – Guy is an 8-year-old gelding trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. He has raced in chases but was switched back to hurdles at the end of the last National Hunt season. He has raced 21 times in his career and has DOBBED an impressive 15 times, equating to 71.4% of races. He has only won twice in these 21 starts, which was what initially caught my eye, as that would account for only two of the 15 DOBs. Digging deeper he has finished second nine times of which he DOBBED on eight of those occasions.

Hatcher – Hatcher is another trained by Dan Skelton. His DOBBING percentage for his career stands at 65%. He has won six races when odds on, so that 65% is based on his other 40 NH runs where he has DOBBED 26 times. Of those 40 he has won eight. What makes his overall record more impressive is that most of his racing has come at around two miles. As we know from the distance data shared earlier, this trip produces the lowest average of all the NH distance DOB%s. However, there is one caveat: as with Before Midnight his more recent DOB% record stands around the 50% mark so this does need to be taken into account.

Le Tueur – Le Tueur is an 8-year-old gelding who has been racing over fences since November 2021. He has DOBBED 14 times in 23 races (60.8%), but again is not a serial winner with just three wins. It is interesting to see that in two of the three races where he was pulled up, he still DOBBED!

So it’s time to wind up this third piece on DOBBING. I am in the process of starting to crunch some run style data for NH races, but it takes a long time - several weeks in fact. Once done, I will report back on that I’m sure in the future.

- DR



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Introduction to Dobbing: Part 2

/in /by

This is the second in a short series of articles connected with betting on horse races in running, writes Dave Renham. In the first piece, which you can read here, I discussed the idea of DOBBING, which essentially means ‘double or bust’: you either double your money or lose your stake. Just to recap, here is a worked example:

Imagine you back a horse at 6.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay the horse at half the odds for double the stake – so you set a lay at 3.0 (half of 6.0) for £20 (double £10). If the horse hits 3.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission). If required, there is a little more detail in the first article.

This second article will dig into the numbers in an attempt to see whether we can improve our chances of finding DOBBERS. I will look at 20 months’ worth of recent UK flat data, which equates to over 12,000 races, covering over 100,000 runners. So let’s get cracking!

Dobbing Percentages by Distance

My first port of call is the distance of the race. In terms of dobbing percentage there is a clear pattern when it comes to distance:

 

 

As we can see, the longer the race, the better the chance a horse has of DOBBING. In the first article I had alluded to the fact that this might be the case, and it is always good to see the numbers support the theory. The minimum distance of 5 furlongs gives us the lowest overall percentage (38.8%), whereas the longer distances of 13 to 16 furlongs have seen horses DOB over 44% of the time, while 17f+ races hit 45.2%.

I can think of three logical reasons why there is such a discrepancy when we compare 5f races to races of 17f or more.

Firstly, 5f sprints only take around a minute; races of 17f or more take three or four times as long. These longer races give more time for traders to spot horses that are making eye-catching progress / travelling well.

Secondly, we know that 5f events really disadvantage horses that take up a position near, or at, the rear of the field early. Hence a good proportion of slow starters / held up runners in sprints are not going to get close enough to the action at the front in time. So the chances of these horses DOBBING is relatively low. In contrast, horses that start slowly or are held up in 17f+ races have plenty of time to recover and get into a more competitive position.

And thirdly, keeping on the run style theme, front runners win around 2.5 times as often over 5f as they do over 17f+. It is easy to imagine that, in races where horses that make most or all the running over 5f, very few other runners get in a dangerous enough position to shorten markedly in price and hence DOB.

In fact, having checked that last theory, and although I only looked at 30 5f races where the winner led from start to finish, only 25% of runners dobbed in these races. That’s well below the 38.8% overall percentage for 5f races. I would not expect that 25% DOBBING figure to change too much even if I back-checked 300 races rather than 30. Unfortunately it is not something I can research quickly, therefore the modest sample.

Dobbing Percentages by Market Rank

Moving on to the position the horse holds in the betting market, and as a reminder, odds on runners have been ignored in the figures as they cannot DOB (see first article for full explanation).

 

 

Favourites DOB the most; close to 45% of the time – this is probably because a good proportion of market leaders win and, of those who don’t, most run well. I am slightly surprised to see the other market ranks relatively uniform and not sliding downwards left to right. I thought that would be the case, but there is no clear cut pattern.

Dobbing Percentages by Course

In the first article I mused on whether course configurations can make a difference to DOB percentages. Camera angles are different at certain tracks, for example, and as we know courses in this country vary massively in terms of layout. If we look at Chester’s tight bullring track…

 

 

…we can see the course is roughly a mile in circumference with short straights. Compare this now to York’s expansive gallopers’ paradise:

 

 

The circumference of the track at York is roughly double that of Chester and the finishing straight is nearly five furlongs in length.

Every track in the UK is unique – some are undulating, some have downhill stretches, uphill stretches, long or short straights, sharp bends, etc. Therefore, I would expect to see some variance across the different courses in terms of DOB%. To begin with, let’s look at the DOBBING percentages for each course.

 

 

There is a 7% differential in terms of percentages of runners successfully dobbing between Sandown at the top (46.3%) and Newcastle at the bottom (39.2%). It is interesting to note that three of the four lowest DOBBING courses are all-weather ones (Chelmsford, Wolves and Newcastle). Indeed, the other three all-weather courses also reside in the bottom half of the table. Is this down to the level of competition on the all-weather being slightly below that of the turf? Possibly.

Now we know from earlier findings that the distance of races makes a difference DOBBING wise, so maybe courses that have a lower percentage of sprint races enjoy better DOBBING percentages. Likewise do courses with a higher percentage of sprint races have poorer DOBBING percentages?

To try and test out this theory, I ordered all courses in the previous table from 1 to 37 starting with Newcastle who had the lowest DOB%. Hence I put Newcastle in position 1, Wolves in position 2 and so on up to Sandown in position 37. I wanted to use these ‘positions’ to help make the comparison.

I then calculated the percentage of sprint races (6f or shorter) held at each course during the same time frame, ordering the courses from 1 to 37, thus:

 

 

Bath top the list with over 50% of all their races being sprints, while Epsom has the lowest figure with just 15.3% of their races being at trips no further than 6f.

Having given the tracks a rank in terms of percentage of races at the course that were sprints, I could compare this with their DOB% rank. For the course DOB% to be strongly affected by race distance then the course ranks for the two variables should be similar.

In some cases they were – Thirsk for example was in position 3 in both: the North Yorkshire track had the third lowest DOB% matching perfectly with the third highest percentage of races that were sprints. In other cases, though, they didn’t match. Wolverhampton, for instance, was in position 2 for DOB%, but position 25 for percentage of sprint races. To try and show the comparison for all the courses I have created line graphs comparing their ranks. I have split it into two so that it fits on the screen:

 

 

For perfect correlation we would need to see the blue and orange lines almost follow the same path. That has not happened here taking all the courses as a whole, so we need to look to see how many courses have their orange and blue dots close to each other. 15 of the 37 courses have their two ranks varying by five or less. Meanwhile, nine of the 37 courses have their two ranks varying by 15 or more.

Thus the jury is still out in terms of saying that the course DOB percentages are affected by distance considerations. My guess is that it is a factor at some courses, but there are other factors also making a difference.

Dobbing Percentages by Run Style

To conclude this second article I want to look at possibly my most favoured area of analysis: run style. It should be noted for the run style research for this piece, I have not been able to use such a big data set, due to the time-consuming nature of this type of research. However, I have been able to analyse 4000 runners looking at how run style impacts the chances of DOBBING.

I mentioned in the first article that horses that lead for the majority of the race, or are leading at the furlong pole while looking like a potential winner, are occasions when the leader’s price is likely to shorten considerably. Obviously, if the price drops enough then the horse will DOB. Hence it would logically follow that front runners should have the highest DOB percentage. This is indeed the case as the chart below clearly illustrates. I have used the run style categories on geegeez.co.uk, and the following stats are pulled from all flat race distances from 5f to 2m 6f:

 

 

Clearly run style is important from a DOBBING perspective. Front runners DOB over 60% of the time across the test sample, and the chart clearly shows the downward trend from front of the field early to back of the field early. 4000 runners across all distances should be a big enough sample for these figures to be accurate. If I was able to look at 100,000 runners, I would be surprised if the percentages for each group changed by more than two or three percentage points. Moreover, I personally researched run style DOBBING percentages back around 2011/2012 and the percentage splits then correlate well with this newer sample.

It should be noted, however, that the distance of the race will cause slight changes to the run style DOB figures. 5-6f races will see the DOB% for ‘Led’ increase slightly to around the 64-65% mark; conversely the DOB% for ‘Held Up’ drops to under the 30% mark. In longer races of 1m4f or more the reverse happens, with the DOB% for ‘Led’ dropping to 55-56% while the ‘Held Up’ DOB% increases to 38-39%. This makes perfect sense as front runners win such a high percentage of sprint races compared to longer races and, as we know, winners will DOB except for that very small proportion that are priced under 2.02.

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That’s the end of this review of flat race DOBBING. The Run Style figures should give readers who may be thinking about employing a DOBBING strategy a possible way in. Next time, I’ll perform a similar analysis of National Hunt racing. Until then…

  • DR


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An Introduction to ‘Dobbing’

/in /by

DOBBING is a word I came across around ten years ago in connection with in play/in running betting, writes Dave Renham. DOBBING is usually shortened to ‘DOB’ which means ‘double or bust’. Essentially it is an in play trading strategy. If the trade/DOB is successful, we double our original stake, if the trade/DOB is unsuccessful we ‘bust’ or lose our stake.

What is DOBBING?

For people who have not heard of DOBBING before I will give you a worked example which hopefully will help:

Let us imagine you back a horse at 10.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay the horse at half the odds for double the stake – so you set a lay at 5.0 for £20. If the horse hits 5.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission).

Here are the basic mathematics behind the two potential winning outcomes:

- If the horse goes onto win the race, you get £90 returned from the ‘back’ part of the bet while you lose £80 on the ‘lay’ part of the bet. This gives you a £10 profit.

- If the horse does not go onto win but reaches 5.0 or lower in running, then you lose your £10 stake from the ‘back’ bet, but gain £20 from the lay part of wager – again giving a £10 profit.

- If the lay part of the bet is not matched with a horse that does not win the race, you lose your original £10 stake.

 

The table below is another way to look at it, showing the three possible outcomes:

 

For dobbing to be profitable long term, we are probably looking to have a success rate of around 54% or more. This figure has to be a bit higher than a 50.1% baseline as we need to take commission into account.

As Russell Clarke mentioned in the first of his excellent in running articles (which you can read here), only about 20% of all money traded on a horse race occurs in running. Hence, there are far fewer people that trade in running compared with those that don’t. I am sure there are plenty of you out there who have thought about betting in running, but have decided against as it is not for you. There will be some of you who trade and are very successful. Personally, I do dabble in running from time to time, but despite using the market leading trading software, I know I am up against seasoned trading pros. I might be able to produce pre-race plans that are as good as most, but my decision making / speed under pressure is definitely not at the expert level.

An advantage of using this dobbing idea for some punters/traders is that you can place both parts of the bet/trade before the race starts. Therefore there is no need for trading software and you do not have to make quick decisions in running because you have made them already. Hence if you are like me, this is potentially a big plus. However, as the saying goes ‘for every positive there is a negative’. I find I say this phrase regularly in my life away from racing.

I tutor maths and chess online, and my chess students regularly hear this positive/negative quote pertaining to certain moves they make. It is the same here: let us imagine you set your ‘DOB’ pre-race and leave it to run its course. What happens if say you back it at 10.0 and set the lay at 5.0, but by the time the race starts the horse has drifted 15.5? OK the horse might still hit 5.0 in running, but this is going to happen far less often than it would if the starting price was 10.0. Of course the horse could shorten before the off as well, but as a general rule more horses drift than shorten. I know this because I have written about this before, and I have double checked recent data too. As an example, if we look at opening show prices compared to SP in 2023 (UK flat racing), we get the following figures:

 

 

Some pretty strong evidence to back up the general rule I mentioned above.

Of course there are ways round this potential issue by placing your back bet as late as possible; literally as the last horse loads in the stalls. The later you place it, the closer the price will be to its eventual Betfair Starting Price. That will mean however, that you will have to calculate and place the lay part of the bet immediately afterwards, and if you have literally placed your bet at the last second, you will be setting your lay after the race has got underway. Having said that, you should be able to put the lay price and stake in the Betfair machine before the horses have reached the end of the first furlong. This manual approach, though, clearly requires you to be around at the start of every race.

An alternative to avoid either the price fluctuating or needing to be tied to your trading screen at the start of each race, is to use some trading software. It is not too complicated to automate the software to back a horse at Betfair SP and once the Betfair SP is established, a lay at half those odds will be automatically placed. The lay will be calculated immediately the Betfair SP has been established (a few seconds after the off) to create the potential ‘DOB’.

DOB Examples

It is time to look at some races to see what can happen to Betfair prices in running. How many horses tend to DOB in a race, how many do not? Initially let me look at four races run on the same day (August 29th 2023). They are all 10 runner events – I chose those races simply to make the ‘dobbing calculation’ easy to understand.

Race 1 – 2.15 Ripon 1m2f handicap (4yo+)

The result is shown below with the Betfair SPs (BSP) and the lowest price matched in running (IP LOW). The penultimate column (BSP/IPL) is the result of dividing the BSP by the IP LOW. For a successful DOB the BSP needs to have at least halved in price; hence showing a figure of 2 or more. Successful DOBBERS are highlighted in green:

 

 

In this example, despite nine of the ten horses shortening in price, only two (Bollin Margaret and Cedar Rapids) DOBBED. There was one near miss (Tele Red 1.90). If you watch the race back, or even just look at the in running comments, you will probably understand why there were so few DOBBERS. The early leader, King Titan, led for less than two furlongs and hence was never going to shorten in price enough leading for less than a fifth of the race, especially when the lead was a narrow one.

Cedar Rapids took up the running after 2f leading for the next six furlongs and, considering his starting price of 83.06 and that he was still leading 2f from home, it is fairly easy to appreciate why he shortened to 22 and hence DOBBED. Bollin Margaret then took over the lead having just passed the 2f pole and led to the finish. Hence, as a winner at a BSP of 13.36, Bollin Margaret was always going to DOB.

In addition, once Bollin Margaret took over, the nearest challengers never really looked like getting to her. We could have found that out by watching the race replay or by looking at the in running comments. The comments for Bollin Margaret were ‘took keen hold, prominent, switched right over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, kept on well final 110yds, always doing enough’. Hence with none of her closest pursuers really looking like winning this helps explains why they did not DOB.

Obviously each race is different and the number of horses that DOB will not be the same proportion of runners in each race (as we will see).

IMPORTANT NOTE: Before moving onto the second race, it should be noted that race winners do not always DOB, because the BSP has to be at least 2.02 for a horse to halve in decimal price (to 1.01, the lowest value on Betfair). Hence odds on winners cannot DOB.

Race 2 – 4.00 Ripon 6f handicap (3yo+)

Onto a sprint handicap a bit later on the same card:

 

This time, three of the ten runners DOBBED, one more than the first race. In this race three horses led at various points: the winner Twelfth Knight, as well as Abate and Russco. Twelfth Knight and Russco both DOBBED, while Abate was a very near miss with a BSP to IP LOW ratio of 1.98. Horses that lead at some point in the race are usually going to shorten in price, sometimes considerably so. That is the type of pattern I would generally expect to see, and the first two races have conformed to that pattern.

Race 3 – 4.15 Newbury 1m 4f handicap (3yo only)

Over to Newbury now for a handicap over 12 furlongs:

 

This time we see over half the field (six of the ten runners) DOBBING, despite only two horses leading during the race. The high number of DOBBERS is almost certainly due to the fact that the winner Graham, who had been clear 4f out, started to experience that lead steadily eroding. Hence, many in play traders observing the pack close on the leader would have thought / hoped / expected that one or more of those challengers would potentially win. This almost certainly explains why two horses traded so low; Medieval Gold (2nd) traded at 1.5, and Gordon Grey (4th) traded at 2.06.

Race 4 – 6.30 Musselburgh 5f handicap (3yo+)

Here are the facts and figures for this Musselburgh sprint:

 

An even split here with five horses DOBBING and five not. Three different horses led, of which two DOBBED (Sixcor, the winner, and the runner up, The Grey Lass). Two of the other three that DOBBED come as no real surprise if you watch the race back. Beneficiary made good headway mid race and as he was a big price, he would have caught the eye of enough traders to see his price contract sufficiently to DOB. Favourite Aconcagua Mountain travelled strongly and a furlong out looked the most likely winner. He faded in the final furlong but not before trading as low as 1.56.

What these four races tell us is that every race is going to be different from a DOBBING perspective. Just like every race is different if you are simply backing a horse or indeed laying one.

DOB Anomalies

Readers should note, that there are occasions when only the winner DOBS. An example was the two-mile Goodwood Cup this year run on 1st August. In this race, Quickthorn was well clear of the field after four furlongs, and a mile later with just half a mile to go he was still 20 lengths clear. The opposition assumed that Tom Marquand, the jockey of Quickthorn, had gone out too quick but they were sadly mistaken, and no other horse really stood a chance. Knowing how the race panned out explains why it was no surprise that no horse was really that close to halving in price in running.

Here is the result with the accompanying in running data:

 

This scenario of a single DOBBER in a race will occur from time to time especially in very one-sided events. However, it is extremely unusual for every horse in a race to DOB. In previous research from 2018 I had a dim recollection that there was a race at Nottingham where all the runners DOBBED. After doing some digging I found the race in question. It was the 7.25 on 7th August 2018. It was a 10f handicap with six runners. Here is the result:

 

 

Not only did all six DOB, but they all DOBBED fairly comfortably. One reason for this may be that four of the six led the race at some point, while the two who didn’t, were close to the lead making headway at different points.

DOB Success Rates

Going back to the four 10-runner races I shared earlier, of the 40 runners, 16 DOBBED. This equates to 40% of the runners. Previous flat racing DOBBING research I have done, over different time frames, showed the overall DOBBING percentage average out at around this 40% mark. Considering we need a success rate of roughly 14% higher than this, there is clearly a job on to make DOBBING profitable. So, how can we improve upon this base figure of 40%? Here are some thoughts / questions, which I will aim to expand upon in subsequent articles:

  1. How does run style affect DOB success? I have already discussed the fact that horses that take the lead at some point in a race are likely to shorten in price. Horses that lead for the majority of the race, or are leading at the furlong pole while looking like a potential winner, are both occasions when the leader’s price is likely to shorten considerably. Obviously if the price drops enough then the horse will DOB. Front runners, especially in sprints, are horses that are likely to have real potential to DOB; and, of course, the longer they lead the more chance of this happening. Hold up horses are not screaming out DOBBERS, unless they get into a much more forward position at the business end of the race.
  2. You often hear commentators say that a horse is ‘travelling well’. Horses that are ‘on the bridle’ tend to shorten in price as they are not under any pressure, or so it seems. This is a potentially time consuming idea to test, but I want to put it out there.
  3. Does race distance make a difference? Longer races mean greater elapsed time, and logic dictates that there will be more price fluctuation as a result of this. Hence, the chance of DOBBING may increase.
  4. Do courses make a difference? Certain courses, Bath for example, have difficult camera angles in the final couple of furlongs. I remember trying to trade in running in a Bath sprint around ten years ago; never again! It was so difficult to monitor all the horses from a front on angle. Other course considerations I guess that may have a positive bearing on DOBBING percentages, such as those with uphill finishes, or with long home straights.
  5. What effect does the price of a horse have? One sensible argument would be that shorter priced runners may DOB more often than longer prices, simply because the market suggests they will be more competitive: they are more likely to be mounting a serious challenge at some point in the race. An alternative argument would be that horses starting a long odds do not have to go ‘low’ in running to DOB. An 80.0 BSP shot only needs to reach 40.0 to DOB. Whereas a 4.0 (3/1) shot needs to hit 2.0 (even money).

My questions and thoughts don’t stop there, but it is time to wind up this introduction to DOBBING. As you can see we have a fair bit of digging and number crunching to do – or at least I do! And, at this stage I have only really discussed flat racing; I have not even mentioned National Hunt racing as yet...

- DR



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