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Double Dutch, 29th February 2016

Saturday started badly for us as Ballyglasheen fell at the very first hurdle at Chepstow and then when Floreseco made a bad error three from home, the game was already up, I'm afraid.

Grendisar did, however, restore some pride, by landing the Lingfield feature 10 minutes later to maintain his recent fine form, but for DD unters, the damage was done and another 2pt loss was incurred.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Floresco : 4th at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Ballyglasheen : fell at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Grendisar : WON at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Festive Fare : 4th at 7/4 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
815 winning selections from 2942 = 27.70%
251 winning bets in 761 days = 32.98%

Stakes: 1521.00pts
Returns: 1590.13pts
P/L : +69.13pts (+4.55% ROI)

And to Monday's Selections...

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.50 Wolverhampton :

Despite Cee Jay being among the more exposed runners here, the fact that he has made the frame in three of his four maidens sets the standard on form here. Jockey Jim Crowley is on fire at the moment and has a good record at this venue, as does trainer Jeremy Noseda, whose yard seems to be on the verge of sparking into life again. A weak race could well go our way here at 3/1 BOG.

In opposition, I'm going with the debutant Bromley Cross. Probably not named after the suburb of Bolton, but a tenuous local (for me, anyway) link is often mildly amusing/interesting.

He cost £35,000 as a foal and £60,000 as a 2 yr old and whilst sales fees aren't always the best indicator of potential, somebody thinks he has promise. Bromley Cross is by Dandy Man, a good sprinter in his day and he's also the half brother of Lucifers Shadow and his dam was the sister to an Irish Listed class winner, so his breeding looks decent enough for this level and a chance could well be taken at 100/30 BOG.

4.50 Ayr :

Nicky Richards' horses go well here at Ayr and now runs Progress Drive for the second time. This one was third over C&D (heavy) on debut, but was later disqualified after the jockey weighed in 2lbs light. The experience of the run and the excellent record of the yard wih unexposed bumpers suggest he's the one to beat here and you can currently get 15/8 BOG about him, now that the original favourite has been withdrawn.

Grays Choice is also of some interest here, breeding suggests he wants (much) further in time, but has already shown promise at this shorter trip by finishing fourth in two bumpers at Musselburgh. He possibly did too much too soon last time out, having raced prominently before fading away and I'm sure the lessons will be learned from that experience and given a more patient/cautious approach, Grays Choice has every chance here at 11/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Cee Jay / Progress Drive @ 10.50/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : Stan James)
Cee Jay / Grays Choice @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Bromley Cross / Progress Drive @ 11.46/1 (10/3 & 15/8 : Bet365 & Stan James)
Bromley Cross / Grays Choice @ 14.16/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 27th February 2016

As good as Thursday was for/to us, Friday was equally poor, I'm afraid as we continue to struggle for any real consistency.

In the opener at Lingfield, the money came for Englishwoman (13/8 from 2/1) as she sought the first 4-timer whilst our other runner, Equijade, was friendless in the market (10/1 from 11/4!), yet it was the latter that ran best, beaten by 2.5 lengths into third place with the favourite trailing in last of the six a further 3 lengths back.

That was obviously not good for us and it meant that the Warwick race wasn't going to count for much, which is just as well, because As de Fer's 5th place finish (beaten by 25L!) was as good as it got, whilst Hi Vic was pulled up 2 from home after several mistakes and an uncharacteristically poor run.

Friday's results were as follows:

Equijade : 3rd at 10/1 (adv 11/4)
Englishwoman : 6th at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
----------------------------------------------------
As de Fer : 5th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Hi Vic : PU at 8/1 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
814 winning selections from 2938 = 27.68%
251 winning bets in 760 days = 32.94%

Stakes: 1519.00pts
Returns: 1590.13pts
P/L : +71.13pts (+4.68% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

And to Saturday's Selections...

3.10 Chepstow :

Evan Williams' hurdlers were 7/21 here at Chepstow last year and more long term, jockey Paul Moloney is 9/41 on the Williams handicap hurdlers here at this track, which suggests we'll get a decent run from the 4/1 BOG Ballyglasheen. This is a horse who won a Gr 3 (Swinton) at Haydock last year, but has failed to build on that after going up in the weights. He's now, however, 2lbs lower than that last win, giving him every chance here.

The one to beat, though, is Floresco at 5/2 BOG, a horse in really good nick having finished 2221 in his four runs this year. Neither the trip nor the ground conditions should hold any fears here and despite a 6lb penalty for a win at Wincanton last time out, he stands every chance of going in again here.

3.20 Lingfield :

Grendisar was second in this race last year, headed late on in a three quarter length defeat and he'll be keen to make amends this year. He warmed up for this event by landing a C&D Listed race last time out, which took his record over track and trip to 4 wins from 9 . Today's jockey, Adam Kirby, is 3 from 6 on this horse in those C&D contests and Grendisar is priced at 11/4 BOG to take his record when running in February to 4 from 4.

Stiffest opposition is expected to come from Festive Fare, as it did last time out, when he chased Grendisar home, going down by just half a length. In his defence, he never really travelled well that day, looking unsettled for large parts of the contest, so to get so close to the winner was a feat in itself. The cheekpieces are applied today in a bid to calm him down and if successful, a win at 9/4 BOG could well be on the cards for a horse who is 1112 on the A/W.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Floresco / Festive Fare @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : generally)
Floresco / Grendisar @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : generally)
Ballyglasheen / Festive Fare @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : generally)
Ballyglasheen / Grendisar @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : generally)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 26th February 2016

After a frustrating run of late followed by a near miss on Wednesday, Thursday proved to be a much better day for us.

Two handicap chases an hour apart yielded two winners, a runner-up (providing an 11.5/1 exacta) and a third place, meaning we came away from the day with a 13.63/1 double after Oscar Oscar and Vazaro Delafayette had won comfortably by 16 and 11 lengths respectively.

I could do with a few more days like that!

Thursday's results were as follows:

Oscar Oscar : WON at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
Discoverie : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
The Exacta paid £12.50 here to a £1 stake
----------------------------------------------------
Vazaro Delafayette : WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Hollow Blue Sky : 3rd at 1/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
814 winning selections from 2938 = 27.68%
251 winning bets in 760 days = 32.94%

Stakes: 1519.00pts
Returns: 1590.13pts
P/L : +71.13pts (+4.68% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

And to Friday's Selections...

3.00 Lingfield :

The penny has certainly dropped of late for Englishwoman, who now comes here with a double penalty after three consecutive wins over today's 5f (twice) and 6f. That said, she's still available at 2/1 BOG in a 6-runner race, probably due to this being her first run here at Lingfield and also because of the extra weight. Her 5lb climer jockey has replaced with one claiming 7lbs so that helps slightly and the yard has done well here in recent times. On form, Englishwoman is the clear pick...

...but should things not quite to go to plan, handicap debutant Equijade is the one I'd side with. A course and distance winner here at Lingfield on debut 13 days ago despite making an excusable start. that said, she still won by a good four lengths and although the quality of that race probably wasn't too high, she could only beat what she faced and she did that well. Further improvement is expected and as such, Equijade looks a decent backup at 11/4 BOG.

4.15 Warwick :

Anthony Honeyball has really got As de Fer on top of his game right now and depsite a hike in weights, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him land the hat-trick here over 3m on soft ground. He won on this track (3m1.5f, soft) two starts ago, before winnning over shorter on heavy ground at Wincanton three weeks ago. A quick look at his profile suggests class, track, trip, course direction etc are all ideal for him and he's 2/2 under the promisingly talented David Noonan who claims 5lbs. Based on all that, 9/2 BOG looks a tad generous.

He won't have it all his own way, though and I'd expect the 11yr old Hi Vic to pose the biggest challenge today. Lightly raced for his age with just 5 starts under Rules, a form line of 11213 is impressive stuff. Similar to As de Fer, neither the trip nor the going will be his undoing here and he is also 2 from 2 with his jockey and away from the racecourse has won two of 7 PTP contests and made the frame in 2 of his defeats. Stamina should be fine and 9/2 BOG about Hi Vic looks reasonable.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Englishwoman / As de Fer @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Englishwoman / Hi Vic @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : generally)
Equijade / As de Fer @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Equijade / Hi Vic @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : Bet365)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 25th February 2016

On a poor day's racing yesterday, I felt I'd identified two very winnable races at Lingfield, despite a lack of both depth and quality. And I was right in that respect, but the day turned into another of those frustrating encounters that have typified recent times for DD.

I liked Flighty Filia in the 3.20 race for a number of reasons and with the well-backed (5/6 from an already too short 13/8) favourite failing to see the race out successfully, she took full advantage late on getting up by half a length. We were on at 11/2, so we'd a great stake for race 2...

...where the tables were turned and our runner, long-time leader Secret Sinner was herself overhauled in the final furlong on her way to a 1.75 length defeat that denied us a juicy 38/1 payout that would have put a totally different complexion on the numbers below.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Flighty Filia : WON at 5/1 (adv 11/2)
Ruler of the Nile : 4th at 5/6 (adv 13/8)
----------------------------------------------------
Secret Sinner : 2nd at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Faster Company : 6th at 6/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
812 winning selections from 2934 = 27.68%
250 winning bets in 759 days = 32.94%

Stakes: 1517.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +65.82pts (+4.34% ROI)

And to Thursday's Selections...

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.55 Sedgefield :

11 go to post here and I think it's a 3-horse encounter in reality and assuming I don't discard the wrong one, we should be fine! And although Rosquero was a winner last time out three weeks ago, he's the one I'm omitting. Age isn't on his side, he rarely puts two decent runs together, he's up in weight and in all fairness, everytthing went his way last time out. (guaranteed to win now!)

So, that takes us to a pair of more consistent sorts, starting with the 7/2 BOG Oscar Oscar, who made ther frame in four of his last five hurdle races, before a switch to fences for the first time three weeks ago. He was by no means disgraced in going down by 4 lengths in third place over a trip far too short for him (very one paced in the final flourishes). The extra half mile should suit him more today, I'd have thought.

The runner-up that day (2 lengths ahead) was Discoverie (also 7/2 BOG), who also seemed to need further, but still impressed on what was also his own chasing debut. There wasn't too much between the pair I've selected and that Discoverie is a couple of pounds worse off, I can see them being closely matched again today. It should also be added that they were both beaten by a proven reliable chaser last time out and I'd expect both to come on for the run today.

3.55 Huntingdon :

Vazaro Delafayette was an expensive purchase as an ex-Pointer and showed some promise  as chaser when tackling the larger obstacles for the first time last time out. He was running after a break of 441 days when finishing third here a fortnight ago. A drop in trip and the benefit of having had a run should stand this potential improver in good stead and with the Pipe / Scudamore combination having a 31% strike rate in handicaps here, a bet at 9/4 BOG could well pay dividends today.

That's assuming he gets the better of the 5/2 BOG Hollow Blue Sky, who has made the frame in both chase starts at this venue (winning once), relisghes the soft ground and is back at a trip more suitable for him today. Just a pound higher than his last win, but racing 2 grades lower than that success, he really has to be feared/respected here today. he won this race in 2014 and showed signs of a return to form when a decent second at Doncaster LTO four weeks ago. Only 4 of his 11 rivals have reappeared since, but they have three wins and a place from those four starts!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Oscar Oscar / Vazaro Delafayette @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Oscar Oscar / Hollow Blue Sky @ 13.63 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Discoverie / Vazaro Delafayette @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Racebets)
Discoverie / Hollow Blue Sky @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 24th February 2016

Awful, just awful. That's my "expert summary" of yesterday's performance.

When a third place runner, beaten by almost a dozen lengths is the best you can muster, you know you've had a poor day! That was where Decade Player finished at Taunton, in a race where our other runner was backed in to 6/4 at the off and only made it to the second fence, where he made a hash of it and unseated his rider.

Mind you, the game was already up after our Wetherby runners were 4th and 11th of 12 runners. Copt Hill fared "best", by only losing by almost 20 lengths with Zayfire Aramis a further 7 places and 23 lengths on what transpired to be a very poor day at the office for me.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Copt Hill : 4th at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Zayfire Aramis : 11th at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Decade Player : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
The Wealerdealer : UR at 6/4 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
811 winning selections from 2930 = 27.68%
250 winning bets in 758 days = 32.98%

Stakes: 1515.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +67.82pts (+4.48% ROI)

And to Wednesday's Selections...

3.20 Lingfield :

Your first 30 days for just £1

When I was looking for some stat angles from today's cards, I noticed that Jim Crowley was riding Flighty Filia here for Amanda Perret and they've had some success together of late, so I dug a bit further and found that if you backed this combo here at Lingfield since the start of 2008, you'd have had 26 winners from 118 bets (22% SR) and 69.1pts profit (+58.6% ROI). The horse herself looks dangerously well weighted receiving a 6lbs allowance and her best run came over track and trip two starts ago.

She was only beaten by a head that day and had Coorg three parts of a lengths further back. Coorg had gone into that race off the back of a win, but finished third and has since won each of his three starts, taking his recent form to 13111, suggesting Flighty Filia has some potential and could very well be a better prospect than her current 11/2 BOG pricetag might suggest!

The problem she has, though, is that she has always managed to find at least one (or more!) to beat her in each of her 9 starts to date, and the presence of the 13/8 BOG Ruler of the Nile suggests that might well be the case again today. The latter has really stepped up since being sent out on these longer trips and was third at Wolverhampton, beaten by less than a length over 16.5f and then second here over course and distance, a neck behind a runner that has since completed a hat-trick.

Ruler of the Nile was then a winner next/last time out when getting home by a full seven lengtrhs over Kemnpton's 2 miles, despite being eased right down from a fair way out. He's obviously penalised for that effort, but he could well have won by 20/30/40 lengths etc, had he/his team wanted to, so his weight/true ability is difficult to assess and as such, he's the one to beat.

4.25 Lingfield :

In a race that shouldn't take too much winning, Secret Sinner's fourth place finish at Kempton last time out looks to be the best piece of recent form on offer and a repeat performance should probably be enough here. She weakened late on and didn't see the 1m4f out that day, so the drop back in trip should also be a bonus and whilst her yard aren't exactly firing in the winners just yet, their runners do seem to be running well and are usually involved in the business end of races.

In fact, 42% of Jamie Osborne's runners have made the frame over the last two months, which is pretty decent and if we can get Secret Sinner to be the latest, then she will have every chance of taking this at 3/1 BOG.

In opposition, we have Faster Company, who has shown some promise since stepping up in trip this year. He did hang late on last time out and so has been fitted with blinkers today in a bid to keep him more controlled and in Aaron Jones, we have a jockey with 3 wins and 4 other top 3 finishes from just 13 rides over the last month and has made the frame in 5 of his 6 Lingfield rides this year. If you think horse and rider can improve upon recent efforts, there's plenty of 5/2 BOG available for Faster Company.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Ruler of the Nile / Faster Company @ 8.19/1 (13/8 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Ruler of the Nile / Secret Sinner @ 9/1 (6/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Flighty Filia / Faster Company @ 21.75/1 (11/2 & 5/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Flighty Filia / Secret Sinner @ 23/1 (5/1 & 3/1 : Stan James)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 23rd February 2016

Fingal's Cave was too good/strong for his rivals in Wolverhampton's finale yesterday, but it counted for nothing after a really poor show in the Lingfield opener with our runners finishing 4th and 6th of justsix runners.

It has been tough over the last week or so, but little/no point dwelling on it, let's crack on!

Monday's results were as follows:

Colourfilly : 4th at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Tabla : 6th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Fingal's Cave : WON at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
National Service : 4th at 5/1 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
811 winning selections from 2926 = 27.72%
250 winning bets in 757 days = 33.03%

Stakes: 1513.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +69.82pts (+4.61% ROI)

And to Tuesday's Selections...

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.10 Wetherby :

An awful looking contest, where only the top two in the betting have shown any kind of recent form worth writing about! So hopefully they'll lead the way home here.

Zayfire Aramis' run at Uttoxeter 24 days ago was his best to date and more impressively came off the back of a 344-day absence from the track. Assuming there's no bounce factor here, a repeat of that effort would more than likely be enough here. He only really got found out late on in that 2m4f encounter, yet still probably would have won it, but for bumping into a progressive sort who was completing a hat-trick. I say that, because the rest of the field were strung out and well beaten. The drop in trip should help and I'd expect him to be in fighting at 3/1 BOG today.

Copt Hill has proven to be more consistent, though, and his 7/2 BOG pricetag might prove a little generous later this afternoon. He doesn't win often enough, but has shown signs that he might be ready to land one with increasingly improved efforts in each of his last three outings, where has has finished third with decreasing margins of defeat each time. Only beaten by half a length in a better race last time out, he now has the in-form Craig Nichol on his back and as it's Craig's only booked ride, he'll be keen to extend his good record in Wetherby handicaps (currently 7/27) on this one.

4.45 Taunton :

Another weak looking contest, where the field seems to be more about quantity than quality! The obvious starting point has to be the 7/4 BOG The Wealerdealer, who was last seen on a racecourse winning a similar event to this at Exeter some 294 days ago, which came 300 days after his last racecourse outing. But during both long absences, he was running in and winning PTP contests, the latest of which was a win 86 days ago. He's clearly in decent form and although he might have something to prove in testing conditions, should still be the pick of the bunch here.

Next best is likely/hopefully the 4/1 BOG Decade Player, who was recently second between the flags on his debut for his new yard, but the drop right back in trip should really suit him based on past form. All his best Irish form came from around this shorter trip in fields of 8 to 15 runners and in a fairly unappealing contest today, he could well build on the promise shown in that PTP event a month ago.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Zayfire Aramis / The Wealerdealer @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Zayfire Aramis / Decade Player @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Paddy Power)
Copt Hill / The Wealerdealer @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Copt Hill / Decade Player @ 20.67/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Betfair Sports)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 22nd February 2016

The three mile hunter chase on heavy ground at Haydock certainly took its toll on the seniors. One by one, they ulled up, leaving just two finishers from seven and it was our pick, Pearlysteps, that made all and fairly coasted to an 85-lengths victory.

Unfortunately though, the double had already gone, after we'd only managed third and fourth at Lingfield earlier in the day. Come On Dave was unlucky to get beaten by 2.5 lengths, I felt, after clipping heels at just the wrong time, losing momentum and ground.

These incidents are, of course, part and parcel of racing in "the pocket", but we're a little aggrieved that it contributed to us missing a possible 13/1 payout.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Come On Dave : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Taajub : 4th at 6/1 (adv 9/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Pearlysteps : WON at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Richmond : PU at 11/4 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
810 winning selections from 2922 = 27.72%
250 winning bets in 756 days = 33.07%

Stakes: 1511.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +71.82pts (+4.75% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

And to Monday's Selections...

2.20 Lingfield :

Tabla has raced here twice over course and distance in the past, winning one and losing one by just over half a length and although beaten again here last time out, should put up another bold show. In fairness, she didn't see the 1m2f trip out last time and the drop back to a mile should suit. She was lit up and a bit too keen last time, which won't have helped and the visor has been reached for today in a bid to settle her earlier. If it works, then 7/2 BOG could be a nice price.

But she does have a knack of finding one just too good for her and that's likely to be the case again today in the shape of the 2/1 BOG Colourfilly, who despite still being a maiden after 8 races, has shown both promise and progression in her last three runs since a switch to Tom Dascombe's yard. Both yard and jockey have good records here at this track with Jim Crowley riding really well at present, it could well be 9th time lucky for Colourfilly at 2/1 BOG.

5.55 Wolverhampton :

Fingal's Cave paid the price for travelling too strongly at Chelmsford 11 days ago on his return from an 8 month break. He was finally overhauled inside the last furlong of that one mile contest, eventually beaten into fourth place by a length and a half. He should strip fitter for having had the run and if employing the same tactics off the same mark under the same jockey, the drop back in trip to 7f could be the key to a win at 5/2 BOG.

The main threat looks to be National Service, despite him still being rated some 8lbs higher than when winning at Kempton three starts ago. Gordon Elliott's horses are in really good form (8/24 in the last 2 weeks and 5/15 in the past 7 days) and whilst he doesn't send many too Wolverhampton (just 40 in 8 years!), this horse has one win and one runner-up finish from just two runs here, both over course and distance, making him of obvious interest at 100/30 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Colourfilly / Fingal's Cave @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Colourfilly / National Service @ 11.46/1 (15/8 & 10/3 : Betfair, BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Tabla / Fingal's Cave @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : generally)
Tabla / National Service @ 18.50/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : Betfair, BetVictor, Hills & Paddy Power)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 20th February 2016

We had to settle for a pair of runner-up finishes on friday and whilst on paper, that looks like a fairly reasonable stab at landing a 21.5/1 double, the reality on sodden turf was that we weren't really all that close.

Blandfords Gunner may have only gone down by just over 2 lengths, but was in 2nd place three out and was held from that point, whilst later, Just So Cool was headed before the penultimate hurdle and found very little in response, going down to a fourteen length defeat.

So a pair of 2's looks fine, until you get close up, I suppose!

Friday's results were as follows:

Blandfords Gunner : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Legal Exit : 6th at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Just So Cool : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Major Milborne : 4th at 9/2 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
809 winning selections from 2918 = 27.72%
250 winning bets in 755 days = 33.11%

Stakes: 1509.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +73.82pts (+4.89% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

And to Saturday's Selections...

2.35 Lingfield :

Taajub looks big to me at 9/2 BOG, considering he's 4 from 7 over course and distance and 4 from 6 whenever running in the month of February. Those figures were enhanced by a track and trip win last time out and although he's up 5lbs for a 2.25 length success (a tad harsh, I feel), this is a track that seems to reward former winners and at the price available, he represents the value option for me.

In opposition, I'd expect Come On Dave to be there or thereabouts on his second debut for John Butler. After John stopped training, this horse moved to Phil McEntee and was 0 from 10, but now back with Mr Butler, he'll look to pick up where he left off, having won on his last run for the yard. He's 4lbs lower than that last winning mark and his record on the A/W for the Butler yard reads 15121, all over this 5f trip and including a course and distance win. If you think another is on the cards, he's available at up to 7/2 BOG.

5.00 Haydock :

Henry Daly's horses are running pretty well at present and he has a decent record here at Haydock. Then add to the mix the facts that his horses tend to go well on heavy ground and that he's represented by last year's winner of this race and you've got yourself a live contender in the shape of Pearlysteps. He's carrying 3lbs less than last year, thanks to his jockey's claim and looked in good nick on his seasonal reappearance at Taunton before unseating three out last month. The run will have done him good and he's the one to beat here at 9/4 BOG.

After Pearlysteps lost his rider that day, Richmond went on to finish second in the same contest on his debut in hunter chases and also for a new yard. He repeated that result three weeks ago at Warwick, so he has clearly taken to this new sphere very well. The third placed horse from the afore-mentioned Taunton race has gone on to win since and if that form holds out, 7/2 BOG here might prove profitable!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Come On Dave / Pearlysteps @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Come On Dave / Richmond @ 18.50/1 (10/3 & 7/2 : Betway)
Taajub / Pearlysteps @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Taajub /Richmond  @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Betway)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 19th February 2016

We got off to a cracking start yesterday as Altiepix won by 20 lengths at Clonmel and I was very confident of landing the spoils later at Chelmsford, but we had to settle for the 2nd and 3rd places, after Bold Prediction was picked off late on to get beaten by a neck. Supersta got going too late and was flying at the close to get withing anotrher neck of our runner-up, but the narrow margin of defeat was enough to deny us a 15.88/1 payout.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Altiepix : WON at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Mr Eko : PU at 8/1 (adv 8/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Bold Prediction : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Supersta : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
809 winning selections from 2914 = 27.76%
250 winning bets in 754 days = 33.16%

Stakes: 1507.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +75.82pts (+5.03% ROI)

And to Friday's Selections...

2.10 Sandown :

Your first 30 days for just £1

Richard Johnson is in great form and has a really good record at this venue and has also ridden 4 winners from just 8 career rides for in-form trainer Tom Lacey. All of which has to give Legal Exit more than a fighting chance here at 11/4 BOG. He was decent over hurdles in Ireland, running off 137 at Grade 1 level and is still relatively untried over fences, after just one UK effort to date. He clearly needed last month's run after a year off the track and now handicapping off 125, could be well treated.

As, of course, could LTO winner Blandfords Gunner, who was successful at Leicester in a 2m chase when last seen 11 weeks ago. He beat Moscow Me by a length and a quarter that day and the latter went on to score by over 3 lengths over the same track and trip next time out. He's still unexposed over fences after two starts and is 2lbs well in at the weights here today and I expect him to go well again at 7/2 BOG.

3.40 Fakenham :

Just So Cool was third over 2m5f staying on in treacherous conditions at Ludlow last month, before being beaten by just a head on his handicap debut last time out over a shorter trip. He does seem to be progressing nicely with each run and after just five starts under Rules, should still have more to come. I think the step up in trip could well be the key here, as he was only beaten by three parts of a length in his only effort in a 3m PTP and whilst he's probably a chaser in the making, he's every chance here at around 5/2 BOG.

I do, however, have a slight preference for Major Milborne at 4/1 BOG. Beaten by just 2 lengths having been headed late on when tiring over 3m1f on heavy ground at Plumpton a month ago, better conditions and a slightly shorter trip should both be in his favour, as should the fact that the winner that day won again 6 days ago at Warwick.

Jockey Page Fuller retains the ride and whilst she's not the most well-known around, she's one of this new breed of promising female jockeys who rides her 7lb claim very well. Her last three rides for Jamie Snowden have seen her ride two winners either side of Major Milbourne's LTO runner-up finish, so she's clearly in good toucvh.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Legal Exit / Just So Cool @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Stan James)
Legal Exit / Major Milborne @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : Bet365, Betfred & Totesport)
Blandfords Gunner / Just So Cool @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Stan James)
Blandfords Gunner / Major Milborne @ 21.50/1 (7/2 & 4/1: BetVictor, Hills & Ladbrokes)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 18th February 2016

We were denied a third win of the week yesterday, as both of our selections at Towcester ended up well beaten in the end, with the best we could manage being the 4th place finish from a drifting (10/3 to 13/2!) Bebinn, but he was a good 32 lengths away from the winner, meaning the double was well gone!

Some personal pride was salvaged later at Lingfield in the shape of Arch Villain, who I'd backed elsewhere as a sinlge at 2/1 and he was well backed into 5/4 at the off, but only just got up on the line to win by a head with our other pick a further 2 places back in third.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Bebinn : 4th at 13/2 (adv 10/3)
Badger Wood : PU at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Arch Villain : WON at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Notarised : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
808 winning selections from 2910 = 27.77%
250 winning bets in 753 days = 33.20%

Stakes: 1505.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +77.82pts (+5.17% ROI)

And to Thursday's Selections...

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.45 Clonmel :

Altiepix has made the frame four times from his six runs over the last year, winning twice. He has made a good transition to the bigger obstacles and although a winner over 3m two starts ago (all 3 chase runs have been at 3m or longer), he's interestingly dropped back a half mile today. Mind you, he has won at both 2m and 2m 6.5f in the past and over today's trip, he has solid (233) form over hurdles.

Off a mark of 117, he's still 5lbs lower than his hurdling mark and with yard and jockey in good nick and both having good records here at Clonmel, a win for Altiepix at 11/4 BOG wouldn't exactly be too much of a surprise, assuming that he sees off the likely challenge from easy LTO heavy ground winner Mr Eko, who now steps back up in trip by 2f after coasting home by 12 lengths at Thurles three weeks ago.

He was eased down as his bandages came loose, so could and should probably have won by much further and as a result, a 7lb penalty might actually look lenient for a horse who gets this trip readily (a former course and distance winner here over fences) and absolutely loves heavy ground. At the age of 11, time is probably not on Mr Eko's side, but I think there could be at least one more win in him and if it's today at 7/2 BOG or better, that would be just ideal for us!

7.10 Chelmsford :

Over the last four months, the 5/2 BOG Supersta has raced 8 times on the A/W, winning five times and going down by just a head in another. He's three from five over course and distance, he runs well in the hood, field size looks ideal and he's 2/4 in this grade. Regular jockey Andrew Mullen has an able replacement in Jim Crowley and the only negative I have about this one is the double penalty being carried...

...which might just open the door to the 3/1 BOG fellow hat-trick seeker Bold Prediction, who carries 4lbs less than the main pick here. He's also had the benefit of a 5 week rest since landing back to back wins firstly at Lingfield and then here over course and distance last time out. He's only up 3lbs for that last win and that might not be enough to stop him here today. Either way I expect a closely run affair.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Altiepix / Supersta @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Altiepix / Bold Prediction @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Mr Eko / Supersta @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Betfair Sports)
Mr Eko / Bold Prediction @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Betfair Sports)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 17th February 2016

I said yesterday that we were hoping for our 250th winning double at a rate of almost 1-in-3 and it duly arrived on a day where almost everything went our way.

Both our longer priced picks won, one even very obligingly drifted by half a point and with us also having the runner-up in race 2, we got the added bonus of a small 3.73/1 forecast, only Hab Reeh's third place finish denied us a rare DD full house.

Nevertheless, a 19.63/1 win on the back of Monday's success puts the week in a good position and now I hope to kick on from here...

Tuesday's results were as follows:

First Excel : WON at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Hab Reeh : 3rd at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Al Reesha : WON at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Undisputed : 2nd at 4/6 (adv 2/1)
The forecast paid £4.73 here

Results to date:
807 winning selections from 2906 = 27.77%
250 winning bets in 752 days = 33.24%

Stakes: 1503.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +79.82pts (+5.31% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

And to Wednesday's Selections...

3.00 Towcester :

Bebinn is raised 9lbs for winning at Plumpton last time out, but in fairness, she did canter home by some 29 lengths and if ridden out would probably have won by double that distance or more, leaving a 98 rated rival trailing in her wake. With that performance in mind, 9lbs might actually be lenient. The trip is no issue, she clearly stays further than this and she gets ground this soft and worse witrhout any issues and despite the rise in weight, she could very well complete a 30-day hat-trick here at 10/3 BOG.

The one most likely to give her a run for her money is the LTO winner Badger Wood, who scored at Taunton on his chase debut 25 days ago, so there could very well be more to come from this one. He stayed on well to win over 2m7f on heavy ground that day and although the assessor hasn't been too easy on him with an 8lb rise, I'd expect an even better show today. He does have an extra 330yds to run, but the ground is slightly better here and if showing any form of natural/expected progression, could be a real danger at 4/1 BOG.

3.45 Lingfield :

Jim Crowley and Amanda Perrett do well together here and when Jim rode Arch Villain for the horse's last four runs of a Class 2 campaign in 2013/14, they finished 1412 together. The horse was then off the track for 637 days, before returning here to Lingfield to win again under Jim Crowley just over a month ago. Having had the run and showing a liking for both track and trip, you'd not be getting rich from backing this one, but at 2/1 BOG looks ideal if we've survived race 1!

But, just in case, we'll take a second option in the shape of the 3/1 BOG Notarised, who is a better prospect than his 15th of 19 showing on his only previous run beyond 1m6f. Closer inspection shows that run was in the highly competitive Northumberland Plate 8 months ago, but the placing doesn't tell the whole story. He was far from disgraced and led until the approaches to the final furlong, before eventually going down by just over 9 lengths. This is a slightly shorter trip and he's unexposed on the A/W (just 1 previous effort here last April) and could be an ideal back-up bet.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Bebinn / Arch Villain @ 12/1 (10/3 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Coral)
Bebinn / Notarised @ 15.25/1 (10/3 & 11/4 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Badger Wood / Arch Villain @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Badger Wood / Notarised @ 18.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Ladbrokes)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 16th February 2016

Winners at 8/11 and 5/6 that combine for doubles at 2.17/1 aren't going to make us rich or even keep our heads above water, but taking the early priced with a hope/view to them drifting is a different story, as Matt took 6/5 and 5/4 at BOG odds for a 3.95/1 win that added more profit to the bottom line.

Unfortunately there was no drift, but we still made 24% on the day from a pretty safe bet on a terrible day's racing. The beauty of BOG is that we knew we'd make profit with two winners and the returns could only have got bigger with market changes. Both our other runners were placed fourth and after yesterday's win, we now seek a 250th winning double in just our 752nd attempt.

Monday's results were as follows:

Yes I Did : WON at 8/11 (adv 6/5)
Miss Gotaway : 4th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Beauly : WON at 5/6 (adv 5/4)
Asafoetida : 4th at 7/2 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
805 winning selections from 2902 = 27.74%
249 winning bets in 751 days = 33.16%

Stakes: 1501.00pts
Returns: 1572.51pts
P/L : +71.51pts (+4.76% ROI)

And to Tuesday's Selections...

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.00 Southwell :

I liked the look of Your Lucky Day for this one, but his defection might have have left the door open for Hab Reeh to take advantage and after some decent efforts this year without succedding, it might just well be his day in what looks a poor encounter. It's almost two years since he last won and that was off a mark of 50 and with his rating now dropped to 52 despite a decent effort in third last time out (only beaten by 2.25 lengths), this could be the best chance he's had in a long time. Not one to hang your hat on, but a definite possible at 5/2 BOG.

The 9/2 BOG First Excel, on the other hand, is far from exposed and makes only his second handicap start after being beaten by 6 lengths last time out. Roy Bowring's charge has been eased 5lbs for that defeat and with Aaron Jones taking another 5lbs off him, he could be quite leniently treated at the weights today. He showe some promise in maidens and although this is a first crack at Fibresand, his dam, Exceedingly Good, was a winner here in the past and made the frame in four of eight starts on this track.

5.10 Ayr :

Undisputed looks the most likely here at around 2/1 BOG, having shown some promise in defeat on her debut at Navan back in November. She may have been well beaten in the end that day, but there's a gulf in class from that Listed event and this lowly Class 6 mares contest. Stuart Crawford does well with his winter raiders to the UK, has a great record with his unexposed bumper runners and when he has Steven Crawford in the saddle at this venue, you always get a run for your money.

This is also a weaker race than the one in which Al Reesha was beaten by just less than 7 lengths last time out. The extra distance should help this daughter of Kayf Tara here too. Team Skelton are in good nick and it's interesting to see them send this one on a such a long trip when opportunites closer to home will surely pop up in the coming days. If they think this one is there for the taking, you can be sure they'll be going for it at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Hab Reeh  / Undisputed @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Hab Reeh / Al Reesha @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : generally)
First Excel / Undisputed @ 15.50/1 (9/2 & 2/1 : Bet365, Betfair, Betway)
First Excel / Al Reesha @ 18.25/1 (9/2 & 5/2 : Paddy Power)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 15th February 2016

I suspected the one that led would have a great chance to win in that tactical Lingfield race on Saturday, and so it proved. Sadly for us it wasn't the horse I thought would go on. Instead, the 14/1 outsider of the field, Royal Marskell, laughed at his rival jockeys' lack of enterprise. Smashing won easily in leg two, for the record.

Friday's results were as follows:

Alshan Fajer : 5th at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Gaelic Silver: 3rd at 6/1 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Smashing : WON at 9/10 (adv 6/4)
Ballycasey : 3rd at 15/8 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
803 winning selections from 2898 = 27.71%
248 winning bets in 750 days = 33.07%

Stakes: 1499.00pts
Returns: 1570.03pts
P/L : +71.03pts (+4.74% ROI)

And Monday's Selections...

2.10 Catterick :

Your first 30 days for just £1

Soft, good to soft in places, but I reckon it could be quite sticky at Catterick today. Favourite Yes I Did has a perfect two from two record on soft and her trainer, Dan Skelton, is in good form currently. She will have to lug the double penalty for her two wins - two more than her oppo - which could make things trickier, but there's little doubt she's the best mare in the field.

If the weight undoes her, it could be close between Kila's Girl and Miss Gotaway. The former hasn't run for a year and is very weak in the market, while the latter ran a fine race last time and is notably strong in the market. I'll side with David Pipe's mare on that basis. After just two runs under Rules, most recently that third in heavy ground, she has scope to improve and comes here match fit.

2.50 Wolverhampton :

A three year old fillies' maiden with an unraced lass favoured. Beauly is that one, and judging by market support, she's plenty forward enough for this debut spin in what looks a very ordinary contest. Having cost more than £120,000, connections would be disappointed not to collect here.

The one that might give her most to do is the once raced Asafoetida,  who ran an eye-catching race at Chelmsford on debut. Green there, she ran on when it was all over and, if a bit more professional this time, should go close to closing out our double on what is a deeply unexciting day's racing.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Yes I Did / Beauly @ 3.95/1 (6/5 & 5/4 : racebets)
Yes I Did / Asafoetida @ 9.5/1 (11/10 & 4/1 : BetVictor, Coral)
Miss Gotaway / Beauly @ 10.55/1 (9/2 & 11/10 : Skybet)
Miss Gotaway/ Asafoetida @ 24/1 (4/1 & 4/1 : Coral)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 13th February 2016

We had a nice price bump on Part A of our two-parter on Friday as Josses Hill drifted out 37.5%. Sadly it was to no avail, after the very well backed Fairy Foxglove completely fluffed the start before meeting trouble in running, eventually staying on into third. No good. We'll try again on what will be our 750th Double Dutch.

Friday's results were as follows:

Josses Hill : WON at 11/8 (adv Evs)
Aso : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Fairy Foxglove : 3rd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Fuel Injection : 9th at 8/1 (adv 12/1)

Results to date:
802 winning selections from 2894 = 27.71%
248 winning bets in 749 days = 33.11%

Stakes: 1497.00pts
Returns: 1570.03pts
P/L : +73.03pts (+4.88% ROI)

And Saturday's Selections...

1.25 Lingfield :

A trappy little race with no pace, but there's a lot to like about the chance of Alshan Fajer. Ignoring a run at Kempton two starts back, this fellow is 1121 here on the balance of his last five runs. Up just three pounds for a gutsy win in higher class last time, he may adopt the hare role here, and he's proven pretty hard to pass once getting to the front in the recent past.

Your first 30 days for just £1

If one does go by him, it might be Gaelic Silver. He's a bit of a standing dish at Lingers, winning four of his 13 races on the sand here. Those victories, and indeed all 13 races, were at shorter trips - a mile or ten furlongs - but he might just get away with the additional quarter mile if it proves to be the tactical affair it looks on paper. He's dropped a couple of pounds to within hailing distance of his last winning mark and it won't be too long before he's prevailing once more, if not today.

Kings Bayonet has been quite well backed but finds it hard to win and might prefer a faster run contest.

2.15 Gowran Park :

A four horse race that is essentially a three way go given the presence of a 150/1 shot. Smashing is the favourite and rightly so in my book. Trained by the excellent Henry de Bromhead, he's on an upward curve and comes here in winning form. Indeed, he's on a mission for the hat-trick having snapped up a brace of lower grade chases, the latter a Listed affair.

Four from six on heavy, two from three at the track and four from four in small fields, he'll probably aim to lead all the way.

If he falters, it's between Ballycasey and Morning Assembly, both of whom were good horses in their time but both come here with something to prove. The latter was coming back after almost two years off the track when a close second to Bridgets Pet a fortnight ago, and the proximity of this race to that smacks of 'bounce' - when a horse under-performs second time after a long layoff having run well on reappearance.

Even if I'm wrong about that, Ballycasey should have a slight class edge. He actually ran better than a finishing position of 9th implies in the Thyestes Chase last time, being right in the mix until stamina gave way. That's no surprise considering he was tackling five furlongs further than this, his optimal trip (3 from 4 at 2m4f, and five of his six career wins have come within a quarter mile of this range).

That was his first run of the season and Ruby, who could have gone to Britain for some choice rides, stays home for this lad and Sempre Medici later.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Alshan Fajer / Smashing @ 9/1 (3/1 & 6/4 : bet365)
Alshan Fajer / Ballycasey @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : bet365)
Gaelic Silver / Smashing @ 10.25/1 (7/2 & 6/4 : bet365)
Gaelic Silver/ Ballycasey @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : betway (14/1 with four firms, 13.63/1 bet365)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 12th February 2016

No joy yesterday, where a 2-3 was as good as it got. We'll try again on Friday with this pair of pairs.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Still Together : 4th at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
Market Option : 7th at 7/1 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Chase End Charlie : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Newsworthy : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
801 winning selections from 2890 = 27.72%
248 winning bets in 748 days = 33.16%

Stakes: 1495.00pts
Returns: 1570.03pts
P/L : +75.03pts (+5.02% ROI)

And Friday's Selections...

3.15 Kempton :

Your first 30 days for just £1

The first of a pair of negative opinions which make the races playable. This four horse race features 2015 Arkle Chase second, Gods Own, up against 2014 Supreme Novices' Hurdle second, Josses Hill.

Though Josses Hill's jumping often gets him into trouble, there's little doubt he's a classy horse. He also acts on soft ground so, if leaping with any fluency, ought to justify quotes of evens or thereabouts.

But, if he doesn't, I think Gods Own will find the ground too deep to offer a winning challenge (especially when his main eye is on Cheltenham next month), so Aso, less talented but better suited by conditions, is the back up. And at 5/1 to boot.

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Fairy Foxglove looks a really decent bet here. She's got her act together in good style lately and turns up in search of a Wolver-hat-trick, still off a lowly mark of 58 in this Class 6. She's well drawn in four for her prominent running style and, with all of the other fancied and pacey runners drawn wide, she's worth a couple of lengths head start on them: lengths she might not need anyway.

It's possible that one of those wide drawn horses will spoil the party, of course, but they're the wrong price so to do in my opinion. Therefore, I'll take a chance with the supporting role on a 12/1 poke. Fuel Injection was unlucky in running last time and is better than the bare form. He's one of the quicker horses in the field on old form, and has a chance to get involved due to those wide horses being out of the way. He's worth the chance at a very big price.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Josses Hill / Fairy Foxglove @ 5/1 (Evs & 2/1 : Betfair Sports)
Josses Hill / Fuel Injection @ 25/1 (Evs & 12/1 : Coral)
Aso / Fairy Foxglove @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : Skybet)
Aso / Fuel Injection @ 77/1 (5/1 & 12/1 : bet365)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS