Tag Archive for: Fakenham racecourse

Racing insights, Friday 12/04/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Leicester
  • 2.33 Fakenham
  • 4.05 Aintree
  • 5.00 Leicester
  • 5.40 Dundalk

There's no UK racing better than Class 4 away from Aintree, I'm afraid and I'm loathe to tackle our free offering from Liverpool, as 24-runner handicaps really aren't my bag, so next best for us is the 2.33 Fakenham, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m5f on good ground...

Despite only five set to race, this actually looks a pretty competitive contest for a Class 4 chase away from the main meeting of the day, so let's have a look at the the runners...

SCENE ONE is two from five over fences, having won here over course and distance on chase debut five months ago. He won again at Market Rasen in January, but now looks in the grip of the assessor. He wore blinkers for the first time 3 weeks ago (4th of 8 at Newbury) and they're in place again here.

JACKS TOUCH is proving to be a better chaser (3 wins from 7) than he was over hurdles (0 from 6) and was a course and distance winner here just before Christmas. Ran poorly last time out (3 weeks ago) when pulled up at Ascot, but a bit too soon to write him off yet.

DO NO WRONG has won three of his last six over fences and comes here on a hat-trick after back to back three mile successes at Uttoxeter, albeit in the summer of 2023. Hasn't been seen for seven months, though, but if race ready would possibly be the one to beat today.

JIGGINSTOWN KING came to life around this time last year finishing 211 in April/May, including a course and distance success. He then completed his hat-trick after a 19-week break but struggled in two subsequent outings. He hasn't raced since Boxing Day and has had a wind operation during the lay-off, so he might be one to watch in a race or two's time.

INGENNIO absolutely trotted up to win here over course and distance at the start of the month, pulling 39 lengths clear in a seller that somewhat fell apart around the halfway mark. It's tough to analyse him on that performance alone, as this looks a much stronger race and he's now up 4lbs.

Instant Expert also confirms the competitiveness of this race, with all runners seemingly well suited to the predicted race conditions...

All five have, of course, scored over this trip. Do No Wrong hasn't raced here before but all his rivals have won over course and distance, so they all know how to win this kind of race, which has in the past really suited those runners keen to get on with things...

...which would seem to suit most of the field...

...as only Do No Wrong isn't used to setting the pace or racing prominently.

Summary

To be honest, when I started out on this one, I expected to be all over Do No Wrong, I think he's the best horse in the race, but this isn't the best race for him. He's been off the track a good while, he's carrying quite a bit more weight than last time and wouldn't appear to be suited by the pace profile. I'd love to be wrong here, but I can't see him winning this one although he will win others!

This leaves me with a problem, because I have reservations over all of the runners here, but I suppose I've got least against Jack's Touch. This race isn't as tough as the Ascot one he faced last time out, he has won over course and distance, he likes to get on with things (that Ascot race aside) and should be race ready. He's currently (5.05pm Friday) best priced at 4/1, but the market shows you how tricky this one is with no E/W option...



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Racing Insights, Friday 15/03/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...

...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 4.25 Fakenham
  • 5.00 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton
  • 7.40 Newcastle

Of the seven races above, the one from the Festival is clearly the highest-rated, but I tend to leave big-race analysis to the Geegeez experts elsewhere on the site. The 'free' list does, however, contain a nice-looking contest over in Norfolk, so let's tackle the 4.25 Fakenham aka the Fakenham Silver Cup, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground, that might be a little softer in places...

Only Coup de Coeur managed to win last time out and he's 2 from 4, as is Magical Maggie (she's also 3 from 6). Ip Up is 2 from 5, whilst both Legionar and Whispering Royal are 2 from 7; Jilaijone and Fransham are winless in ten and thirteen respectively.

Jilajione's chances of breaking his cold spell are boosted by him dropping down two classes and Whispering Royal drops down one level for his handicap debut, but Legionar and Coup de Coeur are both up a class.

At 76 and 79 days off respectively, Magical Maggie and Tapley are the most rested, but that length of layoff should be an issue here and all the field have had pretty much three weeks or more to get over their last run.

Jilajione is the only one yet to score at this kind of trip, his sole win on debut was over 2m2f and only Ip Up has won on this track, as she landed a Class 4, good to soft ground handicap over course and distance by some 18 lengths back in November, five starts ago, as seen on Instant Expert below...

...where the top-rated (although aided by a 5lb claimer), 7 yr old mare Magical Maggie looks the pick of the bunch with an honourable mention to Matchless. Out of form Fransham's stats are very unappealing and Tapley's record at this level is poor and unless their place stats say they've been unlucky, I'll be disregarding them. And here are those place stats...

Fransham and Tapley's stats are better here, but they're still not close to the likes of Magical Maggie and also Matchless. This pair are expected to be up with the early pace, based on the field's most recent efforts...

...with only Jilaijone really considered to be a hold-up horse. This running style would now appear to be the final blow to his chances of breaking his 10-race drought, as this course and distance hasn't been kind to hold-up types in the past...

Summary

Coup de Coeur is our only LTO winner and is one of the 'form' horses here along with Magical Maggie and Ip Up. Magical Maggie was the eyecatcher from the Instant Expert win stats, whilst the place records of Matchless was also decent. The pace analysis only really served to help me rule out Jilaijone and in what looks a competitive race, I think I'll take Coup de Coeur, Magical Maggie and Ip Up as my three against the field.

I'd no odds to call upon at 2.45pm on Thursday, but if pushed for a 1-2-3 I'd probably go with them in the order I've listed them. Coup de Coeur was imperious at Sedgefield last time out and is 2 from 2 under today's jockey. Magical Maggie had a 14-length success at a higher grade two starts ago, but needs to get over a disappointing run last time out, whilst Ip Up was a recent course and distance winner.

Coup de Coeur here for me and E/W bets on all three if they're anything like 15/2 or bigger. Tapley might be the danger horse to my trio.

 



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Roving Reports: The Going’s Hard in Places

After a month of sand action, it's been good these past couple of weeks to get out and about, and it does feel as if spring is just around the corner now, writes David Massey.

Having said that, I write this as we've just endured another week of frost and fog; although, thankfully, we've only lost a couple of fixtures to the weather, and it looks like relenting completely in time for Newbury and Warwick this weekend. Warwick will be my stop-off, but for the time being here's the latest update on where I've been.

Cheltenham's nine-race card saw me in attendance to do paddock notes and pick up some pointers for the Festival; and I can tell you that of all those I saw, Edwardstone was the one I thought would come on most for the run. The trainer seemed happy enough afterwards, too, and he's the one to beat in the Champion Chase for me.

After the weekend's action from Dublin, this looks one of the most open Festivals for many a year. Normally, about this sort of time, you're formulating ideas about the likely ones for the Grade 1 contests but, Constitution Hill aside, I do think plenty of the other races are up in the air to varying degrees. That can only be a good thing, right?

Anyway, I digress. February is officially Bookmaker Holiday month and plenty from around here disappear off to foreign climes for a few weeks, coming back refreshed in time for the Festival. It means that I'm stepping into the breach for much of the month to work places I wouldn't normally, and that started off with Fakenham last week.

I've extolled the virtues of Fakenham in many an article over the years and, once again, it didn't disappoint. I worked the rail for S&D and it was steady, if smallish, business all afternoon. That's the beauty of Fakenham, everyone has a bet, even if it's just a couple of quid, as they all have their favourites that run at the track. Whilst the days of Cool Roxy are behind us now, there are still the course specialists around, and you can guarantee there will be money for them.

Speaking of money flying around the ring, a certain trainer could be seen backing his Dev Of Tara before the first and we copped for a monkey's worth of it at 4-1, only to watch the price collapse before our eyes. It duly won pulling a bus, and that rather set the tone for the day. We couldn't get them off Ben Buie in the next - I think literally every member of the partnership that owned him was there - and him winning actually left us short on cash for the rest of the day. Three of the next four favourites winning did not help our cause, but Cloudy Wednesday was barely backed (it was a Thursday, after all) and ensured the day wasn't a total write-off. I went to buy some lemon drizzle and a couple of sausage rolls from the home-made cake stall at the end of the day to make things complete. Fakenham's that sort of a place. You really should go. [Hear hear, Ed.]

Saturday saw an early start (up at half six, lovely) to get to Sandown to work for MT Racing. Normally you don't have to go so early but on Saturdays the pick time - when you decide where you'll stand and bet for the day - is earlier than it is in the week, and at Sandown it's 90 minutes before the first race. That means an 11.05 kick-off. Needless to say it is quiet early on, and an odds-on jolly in the first doesn't help us. I take a £100 forecast on the jolly to beat the second-in at 7-4, which seems a very fair price to me. Other than that, business is very slow, but we assume it'll improve as the day goes on.

We are wrong, very wrong. The rugby on at Twickenham later in the afternoon has killed it stone dead. I have never seen Sandown so quiet on a Saturday. That winning £100 bet on the forecast is the biggest bet I'll take all day. Actually that's not true - he had the whole £275 back on Twinjets in the next, and that gets beat, but that's it. A Saturday at the biggest meeting, on the front row, and we don't take 300 bets all day. The results are irrelevant as we aren't taking enough. At the end of the day we've just about covered the expenses. A 14-hour day, if you include travel time, for nowt. Surely things will be better at Hereford tomorrow?

A later start means I'm not up at the crack of dawn, but it's a good job we always leave plenty of time as around ten miles outside of Hereford, we encounter what appears to be some sort of protest. Tractors are blocking the road, about 20 of them, on a go slow. We're crawling along at 9mph and do so for about three miles. Thankfully, from our point of view, they turn off and we can continue our journey without further delay.

When we get to Hereford, the sun is out and it looks a bit busier than Sandown did. It's very much a family day. Boys with footballs, girls doing cartwheels. That sort of a day. It means we'll take money but it won't be big money. Still, if you take enough you can work with it, so we are hopeful. Again.

For the second day, it's misplaced hope. It turns out many are just here for the sunshine and a day out. A few back the first winner, Amidnightstar, trained by James Evans, at 40-1 with us. James was the first person I bumped into on arrival at the track. He could have let me know. Anyway, that's a winning race to start with, but it'll just about be the only one, with the next four winners all well backed.

I've got an Irish lad, here with his family, betting with me, having about £80 a race on. He asks for some 15-2 Lily Glitters despite it being 13-2 on my board but as he's been betting with me all afternoon, his loyalty is rewarded and I lay him £60 ew. He's delighted when it wins and as a thank you he gives me a score for a drink when he picks up. I like this guy. I split the twenty with Martin, who is working with me today, as that's the fair thing to do.

We bet without the odds-on jolly in the last but what money we take is for the winner Out Of Focus, so that's no good either. For the second day this weekend, we've just about covered the expenses at the end of the day. A total of 550 miles, ten hours on the road, for a grand profit of around a bullseye. Let's see if Warwick on Saturday and Southwell on Sunday prove any better...

- DM



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