Racing insights, Friday 12/04/24
Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...
...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...
Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...
- 1.30 Leicester
- 2.33 Fakenham
- 4.05 Aintree
- 5.00 Leicester
- 5.40 Dundalk
There's no UK racing better than Class 4 away from Aintree, I'm afraid and I'm loathe to tackle our free offering from Liverpool, as 24-runner handicaps really aren't my bag, so next best for us is the 2.33 Fakenham, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m5f on good ground...
Despite only five set to race, this actually looks a pretty competitive contest for a Class 4 chase away from the main meeting of the day, so let's have a look at the the runners...
SCENE ONE is two from five over fences, having won here over course and distance on chase debut five months ago. He won again at Market Rasen in January, but now looks in the grip of the assessor. He wore blinkers for the first time 3 weeks ago (4th of 8 at Newbury) and they're in place again here.
JACKS TOUCH is proving to be a better chaser (3 wins from 7) than he was over hurdles (0 from 6) and was a course and distance winner here just before Christmas. Ran poorly last time out (3 weeks ago) when pulled up at Ascot, but a bit too soon to write him off yet.
DO NO WRONG has won three of his last six over fences and comes here on a hat-trick after back to back three mile successes at Uttoxeter, albeit in the summer of 2023. Hasn't been seen for seven months, though, but if race ready would possibly be the one to beat today.
JIGGINSTOWN KING came to life around this time last year finishing 211 in April/May, including a course and distance success. He then completed his hat-trick after a 19-week break but struggled in two subsequent outings. He hasn't raced since Boxing Day and has had a wind operation during the lay-off, so he might be one to watch in a race or two's time.
INGENNIO absolutely trotted up to win here over course and distance at the start of the month, pulling 39 lengths clear in a seller that somewhat fell apart around the halfway mark. It's tough to analyse him on that performance alone, as this looks a much stronger race and he's now up 4lbs.
Instant Expert also confirms the competitiveness of this race, with all runners seemingly well suited to the predicted race conditions...
All five have, of course, scored over this trip. Do No Wrong hasn't raced here before but all his rivals have won over course and distance, so they all know how to win this kind of race, which has in the past really suited those runners keen to get on with things...
...which would seem to suit most of the field...
...as only Do No Wrong isn't used to setting the pace or racing prominently.
Summary
To be honest, when I started out on this one, I expected to be all over Do No Wrong, I think he's the best horse in the race, but this isn't the best race for him. He's been off the track a good while, he's carrying quite a bit more weight than last time and wouldn't appear to be suited by the pace profile. I'd love to be wrong here, but I can't see him winning this one although he will win others!
This leaves me with a problem, because I have reservations over all of the runners here, but I suppose I've got least against Jack's Touch. This race isn't as tough as the Ascot one he faced last time out, he has won over course and distance, he likes to get on with things (that Ascot race aside) and should be race ready. He's currently (5.05pm Friday) best priced at 4/1, but the market shows you how tricky this one is with no E/W option...