Racing Insights, Friday 15/03/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...

...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

• 1.30 Cheltenham
• 4.25 Fakenham
• 5.00 Newcastle
• 6.30 Wolverhampton
• 7.40 Newcastle

Of the seven races above, the one from the Festival is clearly the highest-rated, but I tend to leave big-race analysis to the Geegeez experts elsewhere on the site. The 'free' list does, however, contain a nice-looking contest over in Norfolk, so let's tackle the 4.25 Fakenham aka the Fakenham Silver Cup, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground, that might be a little softer in places...

Only Coup de Coeur managed to win last time out and he's 2 from 4, as is Magical Maggie (she's also 3 from 6). Ip Up is 2 from 5, whilst both Legionar and Whispering Royal are 2 from 7; Jilaijone and Fransham are winless in ten and thirteen respectively.

Jilajione's chances of breaking his cold spell are boosted by him dropping down two classes and Whispering Royal drops down one level for his handicap debut, but Legionar and Coup de Coeur are both up a class.

At 76 and 79 days off respectively, Magical Maggie and Tapley are the most rested, but that length of layoff should be an issue here and all the field have had pretty much three weeks or more to get over their last run.

Jilajione is the only one yet to score at this kind of trip, his sole win on debut was over 2m2f and only Ip Up has won on this track, as she landed a Class 4, good to soft ground handicap over course and distance by some 18 lengths back in November, five starts ago, as seen on Instant Expert below...

...where the top-rated (although aided by a 5lb claimer), 7 yr old mare Magical Maggie looks the pick of the bunch with an honourable mention to Matchless. Out of form Fransham's stats are very unappealing and Tapley's record at this level is poor and unless their place stats say they've been unlucky, I'll be disregarding them. And here are those place stats...

Fransham and Tapley's stats are better here, but they're still not close to the likes of Magical Maggie and also Matchless. This pair are expected to be up with the early pace, based on the field's most recent efforts...

...with only Jilaijone really considered to be a hold-up horse. This running style would now appear to be the final blow to his chances of breaking his 10-race drought, as this course and distance hasn't been kind to hold-up types in the past...

Summary

Coup de Coeur is our only LTO winner and is one of the 'form' horses here along with Magical Maggie and Ip Up. Magical Maggie was the eyecatcher from the Instant Expert win stats, whilst the place records of Matchless was also decent. The pace analysis only really served to help me rule out Jilaijone and in what looks a competitive race, I think I'll take Coup de Coeur, Magical Maggie and Ip Up as my three against the field.

I'd no odds to call upon at 2.45pm on Thursday, but if pushed for a 1-2-3 I'd probably go with them in the order I've listed them. Coup de Coeur was imperious at Sedgefield last time out and is 2 from 2 under today's jockey. Magical Maggie had a 14-length success at a higher grade two starts ago, but needs to get over a disappointing run last time out, whilst Ip Up was a recent course and distance winner.

Coup de Coeur here for me and E/W bets on all three if they're anything like 15/2 or bigger. Tapley might be the danger horse to my trio.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24