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Haydock Pace Bias Over Marathon Trips On Good Ground

Seven of the last nine renewals of the Betfair Chase have been run on ground that was at least soft and three of the last five years it has been heavy ground but a very dry spell this year means that we are likely to be racing on good ground on Saturday. This gives us a good opportunity to have a look at potential pace biases on better ground at Haydock.

Staying trips are the main focus at this meeting with three chases over 3m+ and also the Grade 3 Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle so these distances are where I will concentrate my efforts.

3m+ Chase Pace Bias At Haydock On Good Or Good To Soft Ground

Unfortunately we have a pretty small sample size here courtesy of the fact that Haydock rarely gets extended dry spells but the data we do have suggests that this is a relatively fair course.

Races tend to be more even from a pace perspective over longer distances and that seems to be the case here with front running, racing in mid division and being held up all resulting in pretty similar place percentages. Front runners actually perform poorest of all in terms of placing with a place strike rate of 25% but being near the pace isn’t a complete disadvantage as prominent racers have comfortably the best win and place strike rates. The win percentage when racing prominently is an impressive 17.05% and the place percentage is 38.64%, well clear of the next best 27.66% for mid division.

Despite the small sample there does seem enough of a difference in the data to suggest that racing just off the pace is advantageous over longer trips around the Haydock chase course.

Given how close the data is for the three other run styles it doesn’t seem worth doing anything with this pace data other than simply marking up those that are likely to race prominently. 

The individual pace setup in each race will of course have an influence on this so we definitely shouldn’t blindly assume that prominent racers will be advantaged in every single race but more often than not they are likely to be seen to best effect here.

3m+ Hurdle Pace Bias At Haydock On Good Or Good To Soft Ground

To be able to get more data into the sample I have included races run over 2m6f as well, a move that is unlikely to dilute the quality of the sample given the similarity in distance.

Again, still not a massive sample but we are seeing a fairly strong advantage towards those nearer the pace here.

Front runners have a place percentage of 29.03% and prominent racers have a place strike rate of 30.77%. There is little between the two but both compare very favourably with mid division and held up with those place percentages reading 22.08% and 20.20% respectively.

So both front runners and prominent racers have a similar record of reaching the frame, as do those racing in mid division and the rear, but there is a pretty big difference between the two pairs of running styles.

So once again, take into account the pace setup in each staying hurdle race at Haydock on decent ground but in most cases mark up those likely to race in front rank.

Stayers’ Handicap Chase Analysis

My preferred race to get involved in on this card would be the chase run at 12.40 over a distance of just over 3.5m. Even on good ground stamina will be at a premium.

Firstly, here is the pace map for this race:

It seems almost certain that Furius De Ciergues will go forward and if similar tactics to recent runs are used on the rest of the field he’s going to get a pretty easy time of it at the head of affairs. He’s an extremely consistent sort having finished in the first 4 on each of his last 13 starts over hurdles and fences and his latest 3rd has been pretty well advertised since with winner Strictlyadancer going in again comfortably next time out. He’s unbeaten in two runs beyond 3m2f and should be able to fill the places once again as a minimum, even if he is 2lbs out of the handicap.

There are four contenders likely to track the early pace and this quartet should be in the best place according to the previous pace data here. 

Speak Of The Devil is a consistent horse on good ground and he’s very much in form having gone close last time out. He could be suited by this step up in trip but he’s generally been running in weaker looking races than this. He does look a fair price though all things considered.

Captain Drake ran poorly last time out but that was off the back of a break and after a wind op so he did have excuses. He has good ground hurdle form but he seems best suited by softer conditions and he’s not the easiest to fancy here. Jersey Bean is another who didn’t run well last time out. On the best of his form he has more than a fair chance but he’s not the easiest to predict.

Defuture Is Bright looks a bit short in the betting based on this season’s form. He’s already had two runs and did improve from first run to second run but he was still 13 lengths behind Furius De Ciergues last time out and he needs to rediscover last season’s form.

Amateur is all about stamina and he’s been a better horse on his more recent starts after a wind op. If he’s fully fit for this he’s a major contender. Silva Eclipse has won here and finished 2nd a further four times but the majority of his best form is on heavy or soft so conditions could be livelier than ideal for him.

This perhaps isn’t the strongest race with several of these having questions to answer so I think I’d prefer to play Furius De Ciergues each way given he is proven over the distance and in the ground and he comes into this extremely likely to run his race which is more than can be said about most of these.

Solid Contender At Lingfield

One runner I have been monitoring for some time is Uther Pendragon who runs in the 11.35am at Lingfield. He’s certainly not the classiest, nor is he the easiest to win with (just 3 wins from 67 starts compared) but he does have a much better record of filling the frame (23 top 3 finishes from 67 starts) and he’s now looking very well handicapped.

He’s put in numerous decent efforts in relatively good races.

On the 22nd December he was a narrowly beaten 3rd over course and distance off an 8lb higher mark. The winner won 2 of his next 5 starts and the 4th won next time out too.

On 12th January he was 3rd again over this course and distance, beaten 1.5 lengths, in a race where the 2nd, 4th and 6th all won shortly after. Uther Pendragon was rated 9lbs higher in that race than he is now.

On 5th February he was a neck 2nd, again over course and distance, and the winner won next time out whilst the 3rd and 4th would both finish runner up shortly after. That run also came off a 9lb higher mark than his current rating.

Then on 18th April at Newbury over this 10f off the same mark again as previous runs, he was ‘only’ 7th, beaten 5 lengths, but the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th all won within a couple of outings after. That was an extremely strong race and arguably the best example of Hot Form all season.

Uther Pendragon seemed to lose his form after that but enjoyed the return to Lingfield last time out, trying to make all but ending up in 3rd. That’s not his typical run style so he should benefit from being slightly more patiently ridden from a good draw in stall 2. If he tracks the pace and is in the same form as last time he should be able to at least place again so it will be interesting to see how the bookies price him up.

Racing Insights, 17th July 2021

Saturday’s free feature of the day is the Trainer Jockey Combo report and is available in its entirety to all free registered users of Geegeez. This is one of the most popular reports on Geegeez with very good reason. Users are able to compare trainer and jockey combinations over 14 days, 30 days or 1 year and can also examine their records at the racecourses hosting meetings that day, over both the past year and past five years.

If you want to find out which trainer and jockey combo have 5 wins from 7 runners in the past year at Newbury, producing a Win PL of 7.82, head on over to the Trainer Jockey Combo Report. They have two runners at Newbury on Saturday.

The free races for registered users on Saturday are as follows:

1.50 Newbury
3.40 Newbury
4.15 Cartmel
4.35 Curragh
5.20 Newbury
7.20 Haydock

It's the last of those races I’m going to concentrate on. I think Haydock is certainly one of the more straight forward courses to back at and I tend to find that I probably have more success there than at any other course.

This is a class 5f sprint handicap open to 3yo+ and 10 runners are set to go to post.

Pace is always a key factor so let’s check out the pace map to see if any of these runners may be advantaged or inconvenienced by the run of the race.

Three possible front runners in this one so there is every chance they are taken along at a pretty good pace. Any runner that relies on getting an easy lead might not get the run of things and those that like to be held up should get some decent pace to aim at.

Let’s now look through the runners for this to build up a shortlist of those most likely to run well and those that could outrun their odds.

Mountain Peak

Relatively exposed 6yo now but he’s consistent and should get close to ideal conditions. His last win came off a mark of 95 and having run well off higher marks since he’s still managed to drop back down to 96 here. He won twice last season at this venue and also has a previous course and distance win too meaning he’s 3 from 3 here.

He's maybe been slightly disappointing this season but he was only beaten 0.75 lengths when 4th on his penultimate start and the 1st and 2nd have both won since. He seems to have developed a habit of being outpaced mid race but perhaps a strong pace here could help with that, as could the return to a course that obviously suits well.

Lord Riddiford

A possible pace angle. He couldn’t quite go the early pace in the Epsom Dash after a short break but was prominent last time and his best form has come when very close to the pace. It’s been almost three years since he won on turf and although he’s back on that last winning mark he hasn’t done enough to suggest he’s about to win again and sharper courses suit ideally. The trainer and jockey are in top form though.

Get It

One of three 3yos in the race. Came 4th in last season’s Windsor Castle and has had one run this year since a wind op which was a victory in a Wolverhampton novice stakes. He beat a 66 rated rival by just a length that day, giving him 5lbs, when he was rated 27lbs superior, so needs to massively step up on that form and is surprisingly short in the early betting.

Isle Of Lismore

Another 3yo. Successful on two of his last three runs but those victories came on heavy and good to soft whereas he was beaten last time out on good to firm, albeit only beaten 1.5 lengths. The ground probably won’t be that quick but it will be quicker than his recent wins and his tendency to hang right is a concern.

Indian Sounds

Has bumped into Mountain Peak on his last two runs, finishing a neck ahead the first time and 1.25 lengths behind most recently when getting shuffled back by a weakening rival. He’s not quite as consistent as Mountain Peak but seems to have a similar chance based on their recent meetings.

Ishvara

Another that lacks consistency, he either finishes in the first two or is well beaten – the latter eventuality has been the story in three out of four runs this season. He did run well against the improving Arecibo on his ‘good’ run this season but all his best form has come on soft ground and drying conditions will be against him.

Tweet Tweet

The third and final 3yo in the line up. Sent off favourite for a warm 3yo handicap at the Dante meeting last time out but failed to give his running. She had previously beaten the winner of that contest by 2.5 lengths so although she ran poorly last time out, she actually looked a very good bet in hindsight. An absence since mid May and that poor run clearly won’t have been the plan so it very much depends on what sort of form she returns in. If she’s back to the form of her seasonal debut she’d have a massive chance even if 10lbs higher here. One to monitor in the betting.

Phoenix Star

Part of the photo finish controversy on Eclipse day at Sandown, eventually called the dead heat winner of that race. He did look fairly handicapped heading into that race but he’s been nudged up 5lbs by the handicapper to a career high mark of 82. The horse he dead heated with at Sandown was beaten just a short head in a hot Ascot handicap last weekend so he's probably capable of defying this mark. He’s arguably best over a very stiff 5f or an easy 6f though so it’s possible this could be slightly too sharp, even with a strong early gallop.

Son And Sannie

Still quite lightly raced for a 5yo but his best form for his current yard has come in two runs on the all weather. Hasn’t matched that form on turf since and is likely to have competition for the early lead here which could compromise his chance further.

Saras Hope

Relatively lightly raced 4yo who hit form in the second half of last season on testing ground at this trip with two wins. He reappeared earlier this month over course and distance on good ground and despite finishing 4th, was only beaten a length. That run suggested he was as good as ever but he looked in need of softer ground there and is unlikely to get it here.

Summary

Tweet Tweet could bounce back but she’s a risky bet and is probably only worth considering if there is a positive market move.

Isle Of Lismore and especially Get It look too short in the early betting, Phoenix Star could be a more reliable prospect than that pair but he’s slightly vulnerable over this sharper test, even with a decent pace likely.

The two who make most appeal for me are Mountain Peak and Indian Sounds. At any other venue I’d probably take Indian Sounds at the bigger price but Mountain Peak seems to get on really well with this course and distance and with a strong pace likely to suit him perfectly, he's preferred. Given they are closely linked on two bits of recent form a reverse forecast would appeal too. Both will appreciate the ground drying as much as possible.

Headgear Return Gives Outsider Major Chance In Haydock Handicap

An interesting selection of live races this week and several appeal as betting races, none more so than the 1.55 at Haydock. This is a 7f handicap likely to be run in very testing conditions at Haydock. With rain forecast for most of the day on Friday we are almost certainly looking at heavy ground all round for this contest.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

Here’s the draw data for this sort of field size in testing conditions at Haydock over 7f.

Not a massive sample size but it seems a low draw is likely to be favoured here. A massive fifteen of the nineteen wins in this sample have come from either low or middle draws. The place data echoes this with low draws having a place percentage of 31.88%, middle draws having a place percentage of 27.40% and high draws having a 21.74% place strike rate.

Given we’ve got a smallish sample size here the PRB data could be most telling. Low draws have a pretty impressive 0.56 PRB, compared to 0.47 and 0.46 for middle and high draws respectively. This metric suggests there isn’t as much between middle and high draws as the win or place data indicated.

With some sharp swings in draw data between low, middle and high, hopefully we’ll get a clearer picture of where good draws become bad using the individual stall data.

Now the first thing we have to do here is look at the sample sizes. Stall 14 has provided just one runner and stall 13 has provided just two runners. It’s pretty remarkable that those three runs have produced two wins which is in direct contrast to the general low v middle v high draw data but given the small sample size with have to take it with a huge pinch of salt.

That’s especially the case given the next four best stalls according to the individual PRB data are 4, 1, 3 and 2 (in that order) and the worst three stalls are 11, 10 and 12. The larger data samples indicate low is good and high is bad, for all it’s clearly possible to win from very high stalls.

There will have to be some debate about the highest stalls but there certainly seems no debate that the lowest four stalls are advantageous in these conditions, despite the tendency for the runners to swing into the middle or nearside of the course in the straight on testing ground.

Pace

It can sometimes be hard work making up ground when conditions are testing, is that the case for a venue that seems to have more than it’s fair share of testing conditions?

In medium sized fields here the winningmost position is held up but given much more runners have been held up compared to other run styles, this is actually statistically the least advantageous position with a place percentage of just 19.66%. So you clearly can win from a waiting ride, it’s just a bit of a disadvantage to be ridden this way in most cases. In fairness this is a general trend in all horse racing and Haydock is amongst the fairer courses.

The highest place percentage of 41.07% belongs to those ridden in mid division, whilst there is very little between front runners and prominent racers with place percentages of 31.25% and 32.29% respectively.

Front runners actually have a far superior win percentage, admittedly from a fairly small sample. The value probably lies with those ridden in mid division though, this run style has been profitable to back blind both win only and each way, as have front runners to a lesser extent.

It’s difficult to make a case for front running and mid division to be an advantage but prominent not being an advantage so the main takeaway should be that whilst plenty of runners that are held up win, they offer the poorest value and win least often relative to the number of runners that are ridden that way.

Pace Map

The pace map for this race will give further clues about what kind of run style might be an advantage in this particular race.

We shouldn’t have to worry about a steady gallop here with Ffion leading early in all his three races to date plus Lincoln Park and Sunset Breeze also being happy to make the running if need be. It seems unlikely they’ll set a searching gallop on this ground given the latter two are both comfortable taking a lead but they probably won’t make it easy for each other either.

Moll’s Memory and Cold Stare seem most likely to be the back markers in this contest with Gabrial The Devil, Redarna and Tom Collins also likely to be given plenty to do.

Draw and Pace Combination

This heat map is great for figuring out the best run styles for each draw, hopefully it will give us some extra insight here.

This particular heat map is made up from a relatively small sample, although by using PRB data we at least get a data reading from every runner in every race. For leaders a low draw seems to be a disadvantage whilst early leaders drawn in the middle perform well above average.

Any other run style than front running is a positive for low drawn runners whilst middle drawn runners from mid division perform well, much better so than those held up from the same draw. Mid division is seemingly the best place for those drawn higher to be placed.

Given the small sample sizes above I also want to take a look at the data including non handicaps.

Now we see fewer fluctuations in the data with a bigger sample. Wider drawn front runners perform well again, prominent racers have good PRB figures, especially those drawn low, whilst if you are drawn in mid division the lower your draw the better and being held up from anything but a low draw also looks a disadvantage.

The Runners

Here is the full list of runners, in early odds order.

Ffion

A sound starting point for this race given he finished 2nd over course and distance on heavy ground just two weeks ago. He looked fairly handicapped off 79 going into that race having beaten a reliable 69 rated yardstick on his previous run, giving that runner up 5lbs and an almost two length beating. That rating of 79 also marries up well with his debut performance too.

He was beaten last time out, and by 4.5 lengths, but the winner came out and won an 18 runner handicap at York under a 5lb penalty by a similar distance the following week so he clearly bumped into one on that occasion.

He’s drawn in stall 4 here, statistically the best draw of all, and his front running style is certainly no disadvantage on this ground. The one negative is perhaps the other pace angles could make him go faster than he wants early but other than that he looks tough to beat.

Sunset Breeze

Having looked well handicapped on his last two runs of last season he was perhaps a shade disappointing from a good draw at Ascot, not beaten far (3.75 lengths) but never looking likely to play a part in the finish. It could be argued he’ll come on for the run but Sir Mark Prescott’s horses have generally been running okay fresh. A simpler explanation was the ground was too soft at Ascot.

Now this horse does have a win to his name on soft ground, but that was off a 15lb lower mark with a winning margin of just a length against a now 17 race maiden. In two soft ground starts since he has finished 6th and 10th , whereas his two subsequent good ground runs have both resulted in 2nd place finishes.

I’d be keen to back this horse on good ground but I’m happy to oppose again on this ground.

Moll’s Memory

Certainly no ground worries for this two-time heavy ground winner, the more rain the better in fact. She also has wins on good to soft to her name and they came over 6f so she's not a slow horse either.

She’s looked in the grip of the handicapper in three runs this season so far but two of those came on good ground and the other was on the all weather (met trouble in running and did third best of the hold up performers that day). Those runs have seen her drop 3lbs in the handicap back to her last winning mark of 84. This is stronger than the race she last won though and stall 11 seems a slight negative for a hold up performer. With the ground now turning heavy she'll be popular in the betting having won both her heavy ground starts (off this mark and higher) but her draw and run style combination is a bit of a negative.

Tom Collins

A very hit and miss performer last year who was either beaten 7+ lengths (four times) or he either won (once) or got beat a head (once). The form of his win, in October, is very strong with the runner up rating 12lbs higher soon after and the 3rd winning twice since (admittedly on a different surface at Southwell).

A gelding operation and a switch to William Haggas’ stable seem two positive moves for the horse and in my Thirsk Hunt Cup preview, in which he made his seasonal debut, I stated that the ground would probably be too fast but he’d be interesting on softer ground, probably dropped in trip. Well here he is in softer ground down a furlong.

He's only 5lbs higher than his last win and although he finished 12th last time out, that was on fast ground, held up against a pace bias and he was beaten less than 6 lengths in a hot race, certainly running as if in form. His best form has come when held up and that’s potentially a problem here given his very wide draw in stall 13.

There is also a headgear question mark as he’ll be running in first time cheekpieces. The good news here is that William Haggas seems pretty adept at using cheekpieces his overall PRB in handicaps with and without headgear in the past five years is exactly the same (0.60). He’s a really interesting runner who will be wanting them to go hard up front to help him overcome his draw and pace combination bias, which is the most off-putting factor with this runner.

Cold Stare

Exposed mudlark who at the time of writing is entered at Goodwood on Friday but he’ll likely get softer ground here so for the purpose of this preview it will be assumed that he isn’t running on Friday.

David O’Meara’s runner has been in decent form this season, starting off his campaign with an eye-catching 5th on ground that was far too fast at Redcar. In three previous runs on fast ground he had faced fifty-three runners and beaten just two of them! He was beaten the best part of 7 lengths in soft ground in the Victoria Cup at Ascot on his penultimate start but he was drawn very low that day and ended up finishing 2nd in his group. He followed that up with a 2nd at Thirsk, dropped back to 6f on soft ground. The winner got the run of the race that day and the 3rd has come out and gone one place better since so that was a good effort.

The horse has a solid record at Haydock over 6f/7f on ground with the word soft in the description, producing form figures of 18912. He’s below his last three winning marks and if being held up is no disadvantage in this contest he comes here with a decent chance.

Lincoln Park

Pace angle that will love the ground. His effort last time at Chester, when beaten 13 lengths can be disregarded as he went very hard early to try to lead from stall 11. He’s a course and distance winner in heavy ground and his career form figures at this venue read 13752. Based on that 3rd, which came last summer, he’s handicapped to finish a couple of lengths behind Cold Stare in this.

His last win at 7f came two years ago and he’s arguably been getting quicker as time goes on (was placed over 5f last season). If he can repeat much of last season’s 7f form off a slightly lower mark here he is entitled to run well though but he seems likely to find a few too good though.

Raatea

A lightly raced 4yo who did best of those that were held up last time out (and he was given an extreme hold up ride so can be marked up further) at Newcastle, ahead of Moll’s Memory. He’s entitled to come on for that and looks interestingly handicapped. All his turf runs have come on much faster ground to date and this much softer going has to be a concern.

All of the dams winners came on the all weather or fast ground whilst the sire’s two best place percentages in turf handicaps came on good to firm and firm ground according to the Profiler tool. The sire’s runners also perform very well on artificial surfaces so it’s no surprise he ran so well at Newcastle last time. He’d be of most interest if running on the all weather next time but would also take plenty of beating in the right company on fast ground.

Silver Samurai

Well beaten last time out from a poor draw at Chester but in good form before that in two runs at a mile at Kempton. He’s still lightly raced and has won on soft ground before – that was a wide margin maiden win against none other than the now higher rated Sunset Breeze. He also ran well here on good to soft ground over a mile last season but ran poorly on soft ground at Newmarket in August. He was below par on his next and final start last season on good ground so it might have been more than the soft ground that caused the poor performance at Newmarket but given he won his only start on good to firm well it does seem that faster ground probably suits better. He shapes like the drop back to 7f might suit but his best form is at a mile so that’s another question mark, as is stall 12.

Stone Soldier

Archie Watson’s runner was progressive at Southwell over the winter, winning three times, but he’s one from thirteen on turf and hasn’t threatened in two turf runs this season. His sole turf win did come in soft ground but that was at Chester, a course where his best two turf runs have come. Away from Chester on turf he’s never got within less than 5 lengths of the winner, even off lower marks.

Arafi

Relatively lightly raced 4yo who landed a hat trick of handicap wins in earlier this year. The softest turf she has faced is good to soft and she was successful on it but she was rated 67 that day and is running off 90 here. She’s probably fairly treated off her new mark and this is definitely her trip but she was a bit below par last time out without an excuses and does have to prove herself on this ground. Nice draw though.

Lord Oberon

Was just ahead of Raatea and Moll’s Memory on his penultimate start (better placed than that pair) but he has a much better strike rate on artificial surfaces and wasn’t in the same form on turf last time out. His sole turf win came on soft ground at Doncaster when beating Cold Stare into 2nd and he’s weighted to confirm that form with his shorter priced rival, for all that run came the best part of three years ago.

Apart from that Doncaster win, his best turf form has come at Haydock producing form figures here of 228234. You could argue that he’s better at 6f as his last five turf starts at 7f have all been underwhelming but he finished 1st and 3rd on his last two runs at this distance on the all weather and he’s run well in two 7f handicaps on turf earlier in his career.

His latest turf effort was underwhelming but the ground wasn’t soft enough (only good to soft) and he raced away from the rest of the runners. If you can forgive that, returning to his favourite turf venue he looks overpriced.

Redarna

Campaigned over a variety of trips in the past twelve months ranging from this 7f to 10.5f. He ran well for much of last season, winning twice, but hasn’t yet hit those heights this season. It’s worth noting that his form first time out between 2017 and 2020 was 5980 and his second time out form during the same period was 1171. The season he finished 7th on his second start he won both his 3rd and 4th start. It’s therefore a little disappointing he didn’t improve on an okay 5th on seasonal reappearance this season as he was last 6 here on his second start after a break but that run came on good to firm ground and he’s generally enjoyed a bit of cut in the ground, for all he has a couple of wins on faster ground.

Lack of headgear may also be to blame for the poorer runs this season. For the past two seasons he’s won the first time he’s worn them that season and they are back on here. In two years he’s gone from being rated 68 to 92 thanks to that headgear so it seems significant it is back on here.

What’s really interesting about this runner is his record at this 7f in cheekpieces. He’s finished 1st on three runs and runner up in the other. Admittedly the first two efforts came off much lower marks and the two more recent runs came at his beloved Ayr (form figures of 1111241 there).Whilst possibly not as good at other venues the ground would have been fast enough for all those 7f runs and he is two from two on soft ground at all venues. He’d be pretty much unbeatable off this sort of mark on softer ground at Ayr’s 7f but he can outrun his odds massively here too from the lowest stall.

Gabrial The Devil

Not the most consistent but he’s versatile with regards to underfoot conditions (won on good to firm and heavy) and he’s also won at this course. All his wins have come at 6f and whilst he has run okay at 7f it’s generally been a sharp 7f and this will be a proper test at 7f so he’s opposable based on stamina as well as recent form.

The Verdict

Certainly not the easiest contest to call. Of those nearer the head of the market Sunset Breeze still has to fully prove himself on this ground and seems relatively easy to oppose. Raatea should be in your trackers for all weather races and perhaps fast ground races but he too is opposed on this ground as are Silver Samurai and Arafi who both have other question marks. The trip, in combination with this ground should also catch Gabrial The Devil out, and he too is opposable on other grounds too.

Lincoln Park has it in him to run well but he’ll have to be at his best to get close to winning this so although he’s not completely ruled out for a place, he doesn’t make the shortlist. Stone Soldier’s only appeal as a turf runner comes at Chester.

That means the winner is most likely to come from Ffion, Moll’s Memory, Tom Collins, Cold Stare, Lord Oberon and Redarna.

Tom Collins is really interesting and is the sort who could overcome all the negatives here if things click in the first time cheekpieces. He’s inconsistent, probably poorly draw and likely to be poorly placed given his run style. He also has to prove himself at 7f and in the cheekpieces so there are just too many negatives to get involved. He was also reported to have been unsuited by heavy ground the only time he encountered it, for all that was in his 2yo days.

Lord Oberon and Cold Stare are old rivals and are closely matched on a couple of older bits of form. They are also very familiar with Haydock's heavy ground too. Cold Stare has held his form better over the years and most of this season’s form gives him an excellent chance. Both horses like it here but Lord Oberon seems slightly more in the handicapper’s grip currently so at similar prices Cold Stare is more preferred from the pair but both could run very well.

Ffion is the completely unexposed one here and he’s open to more improvement. He’s completely proven in conditions and surely has to run well. He didn’t beat a whole lot in behind last time though and if he was a stone or more well in he would have made more of a race if it with the easy winner. At the prices we can let him win.

Moll’s Memory is really interesting on heavy ground and has a good record at Haydock so seemingly has every chance of making it three from three on heavy ground. Her price has been contracting on Friday though and her draw and run style combination might leave her slightly disadvantaged. She also doesn't have that much in hand of Redarna on their meeting at Musselburgh earlier this season and Redarna potentially has more scope for improvement from that with cheekpieces refitted.

Given the odds it’s the far more exposed REDARNA who looks the more interesting bet here at around 20/1. He’s run poorly in two runs here but both of those came without cheekpieces on and on faster ground. This trip on this ground could be absolutely perfect for this runner and he’s well drawn and tactically versatile. Paul Mulrennan is three from five on the horse (only beaten on good or faster ground) and the kicker here is the stable form. In the past twelve months Dianne Sayer has a PRB in handicaps of 0.55 and in the past 30 days that has risen to 0.67. Redarna has won both times he’s worn cheekpieces having not worn them in the previous race, including off this mark in soft ground. If he does let us down we'll recoup losses when she next turns up at Ayr.