Billed as the feature race on the first Saturday of the new British flat racing turf season, the Lincoln Handicap is run over a distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.
In recent years, the race has been dominated by horses aged 4 years-old, winning 11 of the last 22 renewals, while with FOUR wins in the last 17 runnings trainer William Haggas is one of the men to look out for.
Weight-carried has been a big trend in recent years with 20 of the last 22 winners carrying 9-4 or less, while 10 of the last 22 (45%) were officially rated between 95-100.
Despite, being a competitive handicap the favourites in the betting don’t have too bad a record either with 4 of the last 22 (18%) winning, but also note that 15 of the last 22 favourites were also unplaced - including the 2025 jolly Midnight Gun.
The 2026 Lincoln Handicap will be run on Saturday 28th March at 3:35pm.
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Lincoln Handicap Betting Trends
21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
20/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
19/22 – Had won over at least 1m before
18/22 – Had won between 2-4 times before
17/22 – Having their first run of the flat season
15/22 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
15/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/22 – Aged 4 years-old
10/22 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/22 – Placed first or second last time out
9/22 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/22 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
6/22 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 11 runnings)
4/22 – Trained by William Haggas (5 in total)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/22 – Trained by John Quinn
2/22 - Trained by John Gosden
2/22 - Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 4)
2/22 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 5)
1/22 - Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 39 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5
Since 1988 only 2 winners aged 7+
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 14/1
Just two 'back-to-back' winners in the past (Ob, 1906/07 & Babur 1957/58)
We’ve got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the third day (Fri, 16th May 2025) of the York Dante Meeting, with the Group Two Yorkshire Cup the feature contest today.
18/19 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
17/19 – Won by a horse foaled in February or later
16/19 – Had won over 5f before
15/19 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
15/19 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/19 – Won last time out
14/19 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Winners from stall 9
6/19 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 6-11 (inc)
Richard Fahey has trained 2 of the last 13 winners
Karl Burke has trained 2 of the last 3 winners
Jason Watson has ridden 2 of the last 5 winners
Michael Bell has trained 2 of the last 16 winners
9 of the last 10 winners between stalls 2-9 2024 Winner:Betty Clover (12/1)
22/22 – Aged 7 or younger
20/22 – Had run over 1m2f before
18/22 – Didn’t win their last race
16/22 – Won over at least 1m2f before
16/22 – Carried 8-11 or MORE
15/22 – Came from stall 5 or higher
13/22 – Had a previous run that season
13/22 – Won by a 4 year-old (including 10 of the last 16 years)
10/22 – Finished third or better last time out
7/22 – Had run at York before
7/22 – Won by the favourite
3/21 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (2007, 2008, 2009)
3/21 – Won by trainer John Gosden
14 of the last 18 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting 2024 Winner: Botanical (5/2 fav)
3.13 – Sky Bet Fillies´ Stakes (The Michael Seely Memorial Stakes) (Listed) Cl1 1m ITV
18/18 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
17/18 – Won between 1-2 times in the past
16/18 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
14/18 – Had won over at least 7f before
14/18 – Placed 5th or better last time out
11/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/18 – Horses from stall 1 placed
9/18 – Raced at either Newmarket (6) or Newbury (3) last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ridden by William Buick
2/18 – Ridden by James Doyle
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore 2024 Winners:Devoted Queen (3/1 fav)
3.45 – Boodles Yorkshire Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 1m6f ITV
20/20 – Came from stall 7 or lower
19/20 – Didn’t win last time out
19/20 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
18/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
18/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Aged 5 or older
16/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/20 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
11/20 – Had run at York before
9/20 – Horses from stall 7 placed in the top 3
8/20 – Winning favourites
8/20 – Came from stall 4 or 7
7/20 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/20 – Ran at Newbury last time out
Trainer Marco Botti has won the last 2 runnings
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race 2024 Winner:Giavellotto (7/2)
9/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Had won over 5f before
8/10 – Won between 1-2 times
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Drawn between stalls 7-10
5/10 – Had run at York before
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ran at Ripon last time out
2/10 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/10 – Ridden by Clifford Lee (2 of the last 5)
3 of the last 5 winners came from stall 7
The winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1 2024 Winner:Jubilee Walk (4/1 fav)
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We’ve got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the second day (Thurs, 15th May 2025) of the York Dante Meeting - with Dante Stakes, a respected Epsom Derby Trial, the feature contest on the day.
York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
2.10 – Lindum Handicap Cl2 5f ITV
15/16 – Had raced at York before
15/16 – Failed to win last time out
14/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/16 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
13/16 – Came from a single-figure draw
13/16 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Winning distance 3/4 length or shorter
11/16 – Aged 6 or older
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price
8/16 – Returned between 8/1 and 16/1
8/16 – Favourites placed
7/16 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
6/16 – Rated between 86-92
3/16 – Ridden by David Allen (3 of the last 8)
2/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby (2 of last 5 runnings)
1/16 – Winning favourites
Fine Wine won the race in 2022 2024 Winner:Clarendon House (8/1)
19/19 – Rated between 96-105
18/19 – Had won over a mile before
17/19 – Carried 8-7 or more in weight
17/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
14/19 – Favourites placed in the top 4
14/19 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
14/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
13/19 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
13/19 – Came from a single-figure draw
11/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/19 – Placed last time out
8/19 – Aged 4 years-old
3/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
1/19 – Won last time out
10 of the last 11 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
Cruyff Turn won the race in 2022
Northern Express was 2nd in 2024 2024 Winner: Point Lynas (6/1)
20/20– Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
17/20 – Favourites placed
16/20 – Won over 1m2f before
15/20 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Having first run of the season
11/20 – Winning favourites (including 8 of last 15)
10/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/20 – Had raced at York before
6/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/20 – Winners from stall 4
4/20 – Had won at York before
4/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 6)
3/20 – Winners from stall 1
2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/20 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/20 – Irish trained winners
1/20– French trained winners
Trainer Ralph Beckett has won 2 of the last 10 2024 Winner:Bluestocking (5/2)
18/21 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won)
18/22 – Finished third or better last time out
16/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Had a previous race that season
14/22 – Won their previous race
10/21 – Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby
5/22 – Had won over 1m2f before
5/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/21 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
3/22 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (won it 4 times in all)
3/22 – Won by jockey Ryan Moore
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of last 10 runnings)
3/22 – Ridden by William Buick
3/22 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (3 of the last 7)
2/22 – Trained the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie) (2 of last 8)
1/22 – Had run at York before
1/22 – Winners from stall 2
Just 3 winning favourites in the last 17 runnings (1 joint)
Desert Crown (2022) and Golden Horn (2015) were the last Dante winners to go onto win the Epsom Derby
11 Dante Stakes winners in total have gone onto win the Epsom Derby 2024 Winner: Economics (6/1)
13/13 – Had won over 5f or 6f in the past
10/13 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/13 – Ran no more than 6 times
9/13 – Won between 1-2 times before
9/13 – Drawn in stall 1-5
9/13 – Irish bred
8/13 – Rated between 98-103
8/13 – Had run at the track before
7/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/13 – Trained by David O’Meara
6 of the last 10 winners drawn between 2-4 2024 Winner:Big Evs (4/7 fav)
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A busy day for the ITV cameras this Saturday as they head to Ayr to cover their Scottish Grand National card, plus they are also at Newbury to take in three more jumps races.
Here at Geegeez, we are on hand with the key trends and top tips for all the LIVE ITV races.
17/17 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
15/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Rated between 127-139
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/17 – Finished in the top four last time out
11/17 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
11/17 – French bred
11/17 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
9/17 – Had run at Ayr before
4/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 4 years)
2/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
10/10 – Aged 9 or younger
10/10 – No more than 3 chase wins
9/10 – French (3) or Irish (6) bred
8/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
6/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Had run at the track before
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
18/18 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
16/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
15/18 – Aged 7 or younger
14/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/18 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
13/18 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Rated 137 or higher
10/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/18 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
9/18 – Irish bred
6/18 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
Milkwood (3/1 fav) won the race in 2021
4 of the last 8 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1
18/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/18 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Aged 8 or younger
17/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
17/18 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
9/18 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
9/18 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/18 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
6/18 – Raced at Aintree last time out
5/18 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4
3.35 –Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV
18/18 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
16/18 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
16/18 – Aged 8 or older
14/18 – French or Irish bred
14/18 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
13/18 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first three last time out
13/18 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
12/18 – Had won over 3m or further
12/18 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
11/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
7/18 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/18 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/18 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 5 winners)
1/18 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 9 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 20/1
NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
1:35 - Play Pick 6 At BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV
1 previous run
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2021
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Philip Hobbs has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
1 previous run
Trainer Rebecca Curtis won the race in 2021
Trainer David Dennis has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams has a 28% record with her chasers at the track
Trainer Richard Hobson has a 25% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Warren Greatrex has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
8/9 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/9 - Won 1-2 times before
8/9 - Had not run at Newbury before
8/9 - Carried 11-2 or less in weight
7/9 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/9 - Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/9 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/9 - Aged 5 years-old
5/9 - Ran at Doncaster (3) or Exeter (2) last time outs
5/9 - Placed favourites
5/9 - Irish bred winners
4/9 - Won last time out
4/9 - winning favourites
2/9 - Trained by Charlie Longsdon
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
Note: 2013 running was staged at Kempton
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2022-04-01 13:09:352022-03-29 15:38:13Sat TV Trends: 2nd April 2022
The first weekend in a very long time where national hunt racing is the sole serving on ITV and although the flat isn’t completely done with yet (it’s the November Handicap next week which signals the official end of the flat turf season), jumps racing will largely be the focus in the coming months.
Ascot and Wetherby host the majority of Saturday’s live races and it will be interesting to look at potential pace biases at both tracks over the winter. This is Wetherby’s big day, whereas Ascot has other feature days, so I’m going to concentrate on Wetherby this week.
Wetherby Hurdle Pace Bias
Wetherby hosts hurdle races over 2m, 2.5m and 3m at this meeting so I’ll look at each distance individually.
2m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby
Let’s first examine the pace bias over the minimum distance over hurdles here.
This course and distance certainly seems to suit those up with the pace when racing over hurdles. Front runners have both the best win percentage and place percentage in medium sized fields.
Front runners have produced an 18.37% win strike rate and a 38.78% place percentage, with this run style proving profitable when backed blind for both win and each way purposes.
Prominent racers have the clear second best win percentage although they are narrowly third best to mid division when it comes to place percentage.
Those that are held up certainly seem at a disadvantage here with the worst win percentage (6.38%) and comfortably the worst place percentage (23.4%).
2.5m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby
Do we see the same sort of pace bias over a little further here?
The answer is no. This time around front runners have the worst win strike rate and hold up performers have the best win strike rate. This trend isn’t quite echoed with the place percentages, which do hold more weight in a sample of this size, but the win percentages and place percentages are all very closely matched.
The only run style here that is profitable, and profitable for both win and each way bets, is mid division so that may be most favoured but the bottom line over this two and a half mile trip over hurdles at Wetherby is that there doesn’t look to be any real sort of pace bias.
3m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby
So how does the data over a three mile trip look like?
Not the biggest of samples here but we do see a slight swing back to front runners enjoying the run of things over this longer distance with the pacesetters gaining both the best win percentage and best place percentage.
Front runners certainly aren’t as dominant as they were over 2m here though and the data is far more closely matched, just as it was over half a mile shorter.
Front runners are profitable to back blind for both win and each way purposes and prominent racers have the next best place percentage suggesting that being nearer the pace is certainly some sort of advantage. There is only around 5.5% difference though in place percentages between front runners and being held up so the pace bias here, and there does seem to be one, is not a strong one.
Wetherby Chase Pace Bias
The main races over fences at this meeting are run over 2.5m and 3m so these distances will be the focus over the larger obstacles.
2.5m Chase Pace Bias At Wetherby
This distance was pretty even and fair over hurdles and although there isn’t a huge amount in the figures here we do seem to see a bias towards those who race nearer the pace.
The best win percentages and place percentages belong to front runners and prominent racers (front runners edge it as far as the win data is concerned, prominent racers do better for place purposes).
Meanwhile the worst of the data performance belongs to mid division and held up.
There does seem a fairly substantial drop off in place strike rate when you go from prominent to mid division. Prominent racers have a place percentage of 37.95% and that drops all the way down to 25% (the same as hold up performers have) for mid division.
The takeaway here seems to be that when racing over 2.5m over fences at Wetherby it pays to be in the front half of the field early.
3m Chase Pace Bias At Wetherby
It’s difficult to know what to make of this data with front runners having the worst win percentage but the best place percentage.
The overall trend for the win data is also difficult to decipher given how up and down it is so it should definitely pay to concentrate on the place data, which gives us three times as much data as the win sample.
As previously mentioned, the top place percentage belongs to front runners here and it’s also worth noting that the worst place percentage goes to those that are held up. There is over 10% difference in the figures which seems fairly significant.
Prominent and mid division are fairly closely matched and although mid division actually slightly outperforms prominent the overall trajectory of the place percentages seems to suggest closer to the pace the better but the bias towards those nearer the pace doesn’t seem as strong as it is over shorter distances here.
Hopefully this information helps you pick a few more winners, and a few less losers at Wetherby this weekend and this season.
Newmarket Analysis
As far as betting races are concerned this weekend, for me there are a couple of interesting contests over at Newmarket whilst the majority of the jumpers get their seasonal pipe openers out of the way.
The 2.23 at Newmarket is a class 3 mile handicap and judging by the very early betting I’d rather be with the bigger prices than the shorter prices. This is definitely the race I’m most interested in.
I’m still fairly interested in Scottish Summit despite the fact that he’s without a win in 13 months and just seems to be finding one or two too good in almost every race. He was better than the bare form last time at Redcar (had to switch away from the favoured rail to get a run and was racing against a pace bias) and before that he’d been in good form, finding just a lightly raced, promising 3yo too good when travelling best at Doncaster. He should be good for another place again here.
I quite fancied Fairy Cakes last time out at Newbury as she had a couple of interesting pieces of form to her name. She beat the progressive Wink Of An Eye early in the season at Goodwood. Admittedly Fairy Cakes is now 15lbs higher but she beat that rival by 2 lengths and Wink Of An Eye is now rated 25lbs higher and the 3rd also won next time out giving that form a really solid look.
Fairy Cakes is proven off a higher mark too.
She dropped back to this mile trip at Sandown in June and finished 2nd to Hoodwinker, who has won again since. The 3rd won her next two starts, the fifth won next time out and even the 7th won two starts later.
When racing six weeks later off a 1lb higher mark I thought she was a very good thing but she was weak in the betting and finished last, beaten 24 lengths. She’s been off since and that run came 108 days ago so it clearly wasn’t her running but will she be able to resume progression here?
The good news is that trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has had two winners and two runners up from her last six runners, including two at 33/1, so she’s clearly got her string running well. In the past 12 months though her handicap runners have achieved a PRB of 0.51 but her handicap runners who have been off 60+ days have only managed a PRB of 0.4 so Fairy Cakes isn’t guaranteed to be fully wound up unfortunately. Any rain could be against her too. One to watch in the market maybe.
It’s also worth mentioning Redarna, probably not with this race in mind. I wrote ahead of his run at the Ayr Western Meeting that with a bit of cut in the ground he would probably be pretty much unbeatable at that venue in the right sort of company given his record at the track. I was therefore pretty perplexed when he was weak in the market and one of the first beaten. However he returned there just two weeks later and won a better race comfortably, proving my theory about him correct to a certain degree.
He’s since let that form down slightly at York but that’s clearly not his course and it’s worth noting how well his Ayr win has now worked out.
The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all won since whilst the 5th, 6th and 7th have all placed since. Redarna is definitely one to look out for again next season at Ayr, even at the ripe old age of 8 which he'll hit at the turn of the year.
But with this race in mind I’m going to be backing Scottish Summit to place and I’ll be monitoring Fairy Cakes in the market.
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More LIVE ITV action on Saturday 10th October for day two of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn Stakes & the Group One Dewhurst Stakes, where we get to see some of the stars of the future.
As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy.
So as always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.
13/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
12/13 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Won no more than twice before
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Had won over at least 1m before
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
8/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/13 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/13 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
1/13 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won two of the last 3 runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 5
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3
14/15 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
14/15 – Had won over at least 7f before
13/15 – Had raced at least twice before
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Placed favourites
12/15 – Won between 1-2 times before
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Foaled in Feb or March
9/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Godolphin winners
3/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/15 – Ridden by William Buick
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 3-5
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 9
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury
18/18 – Raced at least 3 times that season
16/18 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
16/18 – Placed in their last race
14/18 – Won over 7f previously
13/18 – Favourites placed
13/18 – Won at least 3 times previously
13/18 – Won their last race
13/18 – Won a Group race previously
11/18 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (7) last time out
11/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/18 – Won by an Irish-based stable
9/18 – Favourites that won
7/18 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
6/18 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/18 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/18 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
5/18 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
5/18 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/18 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/18 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 10 of the last 14 runnings
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 5 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
3.35 – Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV
17/18 – Aged 4 or older
15/18 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
15/18 – Had run within the last 2 months
14/18 – Carried 9-2 or less
14/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
12/18 – Aged 5 or older
12/18 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/18 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/18 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
9/18 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/18 – Had run at the track before
9/18 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/18 – Won by a NH trainer
8/18 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/18 – Placed favourites
4/18 – Winning mares
3/18 – Winners from stall 1
3/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2 winners)
2/18 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 22/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993
17/17– Had raced within the last month
16/17 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
14/17 – Foaled in March or later
14/17 – Had 4 or more runs that season
13/17 – Had never raced at York before
12/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
12/17 – Had won over 6f before
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Unplaced last time out
8/17 – Ran at either Redcar (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Winners from stall 2
4/17 – Filly winners
3/17 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/17 – Ridden by David Allen
The horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
2.35 –Coral Beaten By A Length Handicap (96 Plus Race) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV
Just seven previous runnings
7/7 – Rated between 96-103
6/7 - Returned 10/1 or shorter
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Won over at least 1m2f before
5/7 - Aged 3 years-old
5/7 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
4/7 – Unplaced last time out
4/7 – Had run at the track before
4/7 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
4/7 – Irish bred
0/7 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1
3.10 – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
17/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
17/17 – Had won at least 3 races before
16/17 – Had run at York before
16/17 – Had won a race over 6f before
15/17 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
13/17 – Aged 5 or younger
12/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
9/17 – Rated between 92 and 98
9/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of the last 3 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/17 – Filly or mare winners
4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Gulliver (16/1) won the race in 2019
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
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It’s Derby Day at Epsom Racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest.
Yes, normally run in early June, but due to the coronavirus outbreak has been moved to early July – with the Epsom Oaks joining the Derby to be run on the same day.
Did you know that 16 of the last 18 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 12 of the last 18 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?
Supporting the two big Epsom races are five more contests – four of which will also be shown LIVE by the ITV horse racing team.
Here at GeeGeez.co.uk we've got all the ITV LIVE Saturday races covered with the key trends - use these stats to find the best winning profiles of past winners!
18/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first three home
14/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs
14/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/18 – Yet to win over 6f
9/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)
3/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
10 of the last 12 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (7)
10/10 – Had won over 6f+ before
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/10 - Rated between 95-107
8/10 – Never raced at Epsom before
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 3 or higher
7/10 – Won just 1-2 times before
7/10 – Had won over 7f before
7/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Won at the track before
2/10 – Godolphin-owned
2/10 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
3:00 - Investec Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m2f ITV
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/17 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/17 – Came from stall 9 or lower
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Rated between 86-98
11/17 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
7/17 – Had raced at the track before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
3/17 – Trained by Roger Varian
3/17 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
3:40 - Investec Oaks (Group 1) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f ITV
18/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
15/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/18 – Won from stall 5 or higher
11/18 – Favourites that were placed
10/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
5/18 – Returned a double-figure price
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Irish-trained winners
4/18 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/18 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/18 – Had run at the course before
7 of the last 13 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 6 runnings.
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 11.5/1
Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 16 runnings
4:15 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 1m½f ITV
17/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
15/17 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
15/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/17 – Had won between 4-6 times before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/17 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/17 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Silvestre de Sousa (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
17/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Raced no more than 5 times before
16/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/18 – Had won a Group race before
12/18 – Favourites that were placed
12/18 – Won from a single-figure stall
12/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/18 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
9/18 – Irish-trained winners
8/18 – Had won a Group One before
6/18 – Won by the favourite
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 7 in all)
5/18 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/18 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/18 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
2/18 – Won over 1m4f before
0/18 – Run at the course before
0/18 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017 & 2018
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It's always a bit quiet this weekend with the Cheltenham hangovers, but there is still ITV Racing to take in with the cameras heading to Uttoxeter, with the Midlands National the feature, while they are also at Kempton Park.
As always, we are on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races. Use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.
Uttoxeter Horse Racing Trends
2.25 - 1834 Novices' Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV
13/16 – Aged 8 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-9 or more
11/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/16 – Had won over at least 3m (chases) before
10/16 – Placed last time out
10/16 – Never raced at Uttoxeter before
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Returned 7/1 or less
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Aged 7 years-old
5/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
2/16 – Trained by Harry Fry (two of last three runnings)
2/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/16 – Winning favourites
De Rasher Counter (4/1) won the race in 2019
3.00 - Burton Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV
Only 8 Previous Runnings
7/8 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/8 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
3/8 – Winning favourites
3/8 – Aged 8 years-old
Poker Play (16/1) won the race in 2019
3.35 - Marston's 61 Deep Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y ITV
15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
14/16 – Carried 10-12 or less
14/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
12/16 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
12/16 – Unplaced favourites
11/16 – Officially rated 135 or less
10/16 – Carried 10-9 or less
10/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/16 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
8/16 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by David Pipe
3/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 11.6/1
Only 6 previous runnings
Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
No winning favourite yet from the last 6 runnings
5 of last 6 previous winners carried 11-12 or more
Wicked Willy (20/1) won the race in 2019
3.15 – Paddy Power Silver Bowl (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m4f110y ITV
Only 6 previous running
1 winning favourite (co) from the last 6 runnings
5 of the last 6 winners carried 11-2 or more
Trainers Charlie Longsdon, Venetia William, Tom George, Ian Williams, Paul Nicholls, Tom George and Jonjo O’Neill have won the race so far
Forth Bridge (7/1) won the race in 2019
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We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, we’ve got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.
NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)
**NOTE** - Newbury's Saturday card has been called off due to a waterlogged track
2.05 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV4
9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1
3.15– William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV4
15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat
DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)
1.50 – 888Sport Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m96y ITV4
Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 9 or younger
6/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 4th or better last time out
6/7 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
5/7 – Favourites place in the top two
4/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/7 – Ran at Doncaster (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Aged 9 years-old
2/7 – Won last time out
2.25 – 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV4
8 previous runnings
8/8 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
5/8 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/8 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/8 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/8 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3.00 – 888Sport Take ‘Em On Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV4
6 previous runnings
6/6– Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/6 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/6 – Favourites placed in the top 2
5/6 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
3/6 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
3/6 – Irish bred
15/15 – Aged 8 or older
14/15 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
12/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
11/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/15 – Aged 9 or older
10/15 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Rated 131 or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/15 – Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017
KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
2.45 – William Hill Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV4
10/11 – Aged 7 or younger
10/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/11 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
6/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Had raced at Kelso before
5/11 – Irish bred
3/11 – Winning favourite
3/11 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/11 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
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