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Boxing Day Trends: Kempton Park

It's always one of the biggest racing days on the horse racing calendar with eight domestic cards, but the festive feature as racing returns after a three day break is always the King George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.

Six races to take in from the Sunbury-On Thames track as punters look to get some of their Xmas expenses paid by finding the winner of the King George VI Chase. So to help you out we've got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle - use these to find the best profiles of past winners  of each race. Enjoy!

 

Kempton Horse Racing Trends - Monday 26th December 2016


12:55 – 32Red Casino Mobile Novices' Hurdle Race 2m

9/9 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/9 – Winning distance 3 lengths or more
8/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/9 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Won just once over hurdles before
6/9 – Winning favourites
6/9 – Had won a NH Flat race before
3/9 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/9 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty


1.30 – 32Red.com Chase (A Novices´ Limited Handicap) Chase Cl3 2m4f110y CH4

12/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
10/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
6/12 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
6/12 – Carried 11-6 or more
6/12 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
6/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/12 – Won by a French bred horse
5/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/12 – Raced at Kempton last time out


2.05 – 32RedKauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m CH4

13/13 – Placed in the top two last time out
13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Won last time out
10/13 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
9/13 – Aged 6 or younger
9/13 – Had won at least 2 times over fences in the UK
9/13 – French (5) or Irish (4) bred
8/13 – Placed favourites
8/13 – Went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners)
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Aged 6 years-old
6/13 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
6/13 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by David Pipe
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
1/13 – French trained
1/13 – Went onto run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (One winner - Coneygree 2015)

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Sandown


2.40 – 32Red.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

12/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Went onto run in the Champion Hurdle (Faughan (2015) only winner)
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Irish trained
7/14 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
7/14 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
7/14 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
7/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – French bred
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/14 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/14 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/14 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Faugheen has won the last 2 runnings
Note: The 2005 running was staged at Sandown
The 2010 renewal was run on 15th Jan 2011


3.10 – 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m CH4

Past King George VI Chase Winners

2015 – Cue Card (9/2)
2014 - Silviniaco Conti (15/8 fav)
2013 – Silviniaco Conti (7/2)
2012 – Long Run (15/8 fav)
2011 – Kauto Star (3/1)
2010 – Long Run (9/2)
2009 – Kauto Star (8/13 fav)
2008 – Kauto Star (10/11 fav)
2007 – Kauto Star (4/6 fav)
2006 – Kauto Star (8/13 fav)
2005 – Kicking King (11/8 fav)
2004 – Kicking King (3/1 fav)
2003 – Edredon Bleu (25/1)
2002 – Best Mate (11/8 fav)
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

King George VI Chase Trends

14/14 – Had won a Grade One chase before
13/14 – French (10) or Irish bred (3)
13/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/14 – Placed favourites
12/14 – Officially rated 169 or higher
12/14 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
10/14 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
9/14 – Winning favourites
9/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
8/14 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
7/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (9 times in all)
5/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Ridden by Noel Fehily
2/14 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 30 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 7/2


15:45 – 32Red On The App Handicap Hurdle Race 2m5f

Your first 30 days for just £1

9/9 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
8/9 – Aged 6 or younger
7/9 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
7/9 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
7/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
7/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/9 – Officially rated 120-128
5/9 – Ran 4 or less weeks ago
5/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
5/9 – Won last time out
5/9 – French bred
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Ballylare - Claimed out of the John Best yard a few weeks ago. Therefore, not had the horse long, but seems well and based on his form should have a decent each-way chance here, but we'll obviously learn a lot more about the horse after this."
Lee Carter

19/12/16 1st 8/1

"Plutocracy - Well drawn in stall 1 and gets in here off the same mark as when a fair third last time out at Kempton over this trip. Not won since 2013, but a very consistent horse that is never far away in his races. 3 recent winners are feared, but we head here with another solid-looking each-way chance."
Gary Moore

18/12/16 1st 8/1

 

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Sat TV Trends: 16th July 2016

As always Andy Newton’s got all the trends for Saturday’s Channel 4 TV races - this week from Newmarket, Market Rasen & Newbury, plus we are also covering the Irish Oaks from the Curragh.

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

3.15 - Racing UK HD Handicap Cl2 1m CH4

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Winning distance exactly 1 length
4/5 – Had won over at least 1m before
4/5 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
4/5 – Rated between 92-97 (inc)
Godolphin won the race in 2011& 2013
No winning favourites
3 of the last 5 winners carried 9-7 or more
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 24% record with his older horses at the track
Adam Kirby has a 26% record riding older horses at the track
Martin Harley has just a 3% strike-rate riding older horses at the track


3.50 - Newsells Park Stud Stakes (Registered as The Aphrodite Stakes) (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f CH4

12/13 – Won over at least 1m2f or further before
11/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/13 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/13 - Winning favourite
4/13 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.30 - Bathwick Tyres EBF Breeders´ Series Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m CH4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/8 – Had won no more than 4 times before
8/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/8 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/8 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
7/8 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
6/8 – Aged 4 years-old
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Winners that came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
6/8 – Won over at least a mile before
5/8 – Had won between 1-2 times before
5/8 – Favourites placed in the top 3
4/8 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/8 – Returned 8/1 in the betting
2/8 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/8 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/8 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/2


3.00 – bet365 Stakes (Registered as The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f CH4

9/12 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
8/12 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
8/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or  more
7/12 – Had run at the track before
7/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Had won a Group race before
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

3.35 – bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f8y CH4

11/12 – Won over 6f before
9/12 – Aged 5 or younger
9/12 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won 4 or more times before
8/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Placed favourites
5/12 – Had won a Group race before
5/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winners from stall 8
2/12 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
1/12 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 9 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

4.10 - Weatherbys Super Sprint (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f34y CH4

11/12 – Had won over 5f before
11/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/12 – Won 1-2 times before
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
6/12 – Irish bred horses
6/12 – Won by a Feb or March foal
6/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Won by a filly
4/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
3/12 – Winners from stall 1
3/12 – Winning favourites
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1


Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.15 - Betfred TV Summer Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f CH4

13/14 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
12/14 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/14 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
8/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/14 – Had run at Market Rasen before
3/14 – Ridden by Denis O’Regan
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Winning favourites
The last 10 winners carried 11-5 or less
7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-0 or less
6 of the last 10 winners retuned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Dr Richard Newland won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

2.45 - Betfred Summer Plate (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f110y CH4

14/14 – Had run within the last 3 months
13/14 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
12/14 – Aged 7 or older
11/14 – Had won 2 or more chases before
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or less
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/14 – Won their previous race
8/14 – Had run at Market Rasen before
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/14 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/14 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
It’s A Gimme won the race in 2014


Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)


5.45 - Darley Irish Oaks (Group 1) 1m4f

11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Won over 1m4f before
6/13 – Winning distance, 3 lengths or more
6/13 – Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out
6/13 – Won by a UK-based trainer
5/13 – Had won a Group One before
5/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Won the Epsom Oaks last time out
4/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 4/1

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Angrywhitepyjamas - He ran very well first time out at Haydock (third - only beaten 2 lengths) but was very green, this is a step up in distance today which will suit him and I'm sure he will improve again from his first run. Hopeful of a good run today and looks a fair e/w price to us."
William Muir

11/07/16 1st 9/1

"Eurystheus - Not won for a while now, but been showing signs of late that a return to winning ways might not be far away. A close second last time out, but the handicapper has raised him 2lbs for that so we are going back up the ratings without winning. On a plus - track and trip are fine and this seems to be his grade now. A race with many chances but he's got his conditions so if running to the level of last time has place claims again."
Mick Appleby

09/07/16 1st 7/1

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 13th June 2016

Saturday's Result :

6.55 Chepstow: Free To Love @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Made most, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace)

A second second in a row on Saturday, as Free To Love ran well but just couldn't cope with Ginzan's relentless finish. A miss is as good as a mile, as they say, so we'll plough on to Monday, and the...

8.20 Windsor:

Who?

Ex Lover at 6/1 BOG

Why?

 

I very nearly nominated a Roger Varian-trained maiden runner at Windsor for last Monday's Stat of the Day, but didn't. It won. So this feels a bit like groundhog day and/or closing the stable door after the horse has bolted...

But still Varian's record at the 'other' royal racecourse is more than enough to justify a second bite at the cherry.

In the last five years, he's saddled 92 Windsor runners, 26 of which have won and another 21 made the frame. That's a 28% strike rate for +19.67

When Andrea Atzeni takes the ride, the numbers improve to 10 wins from 25 runs (40%) and a profit of +29.59.

That combination is in rip-roaring form currently, too, with 14 wins from 42 runners in the last 30 days - 33% - and a profit at SP of +20.63 points.

Ex Lover is a son of Monsun who cost 200,000 guineas as a yearling. Out of a Sadler's Wells mare, he's all about stamina and will have likely needed time to develop. This 1m2f trip will probably be a starting point with longer distances the job he was bred for.

Varian's record with 3yo first time starters is good: 21 wins from 136 runs, and a profit of +37.78 to level stakes.

This is a big field maiden, and there are a few likely sorts on both pedigree and form; but I'm happy to risk a 1pt win bet on Ex Lover at 6/1 BOG with any of the handful of bookies quoting those odds at 9.30pm. For a fuller market overview, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Sat TV Trends: 21st May 2016

Another huge day this Saturday with the C4 cameras heading to Haydock, York & Goodwood, plus it’s also Irish 2,000 Guineas day over at the Curragh – As always Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends & stats angle.

 

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 


Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.15 - Al Basti Equiworld Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m1f192y CH4

11/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/12 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/12 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/12 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/12 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1


2.50 - Intrinsic New For 2016 at Hedgeholme Stud Tapster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4

9/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/9 – Finished 4th or better last time out
7/9 – Had not run at the track before
6/9 – Had won a Group race before
6/9 – Had won between 2-4 times in the past
6/9 – Had won over 1m4f before
6/9 – Aged 4 years-old
6/9 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
5/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/9 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/9 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/9 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/2


3.25 - Al Basti Equiworld Supporting Greatwood Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

3 previous runnings
No winning favourite
All three winners returned 8/1 to 12/1
All three winners carried between 8-0 and 8-4
Mark Johnston, Andrew Balding and Mick Channon are the past winning yards
Mark Johnston has a +£39 level stakes profit with his 3 year-olds here
Mick Channon is just 4 from 83 with his 3 year-olds here
Roger Varian is just 1 from 29 with his 3 year-olds here

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.30 - Three Sisters Handicap Cl2 2m45y CH4

Just 2 previous runnings
Both winners aged between 4-5 years-old
No winning favourite
Both winners carried 8-13 or less
Richard Fahey is just 4 from 121 with his older horses here


3.05 - Betfred Mobile Silver Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

13/13 – Had won between 1-3 times before
12/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/13 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
12/13 – Had raced within the last month
11/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/13 – Placed last time out
10/13 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/13 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
4/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

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3.40 - EBF Stallions Cecil Frail Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies´ & Mares) Cl1 6f CH4

12/12 – Had won over 6f before
11/12 – Aged 5 or younger
11/12 – Never raced at Haydock before
9/12 – Rated between 98-105
9/12 – Drawn in stalls 2-9 (inc)
9/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/12 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or bigger in the betting
8/12 – Won just 1-2 times before
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Favourites unplaced
6/12 – Had won at Listed (or better) class before
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Ed McMahon
2/12 – Ridden by Steve Drowne
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1


4.10 - Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f CH4

13/14 – Trained in the UK
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
11/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Raced within the last 2 months
9/14 – Placed third or better last time out
8/14 – Favourites that were placed
8/14 – Had won a Group race before
7/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/14 – Favourites
3/14 – Won their latest race
2/14 – Owned by Qatar Racing (last 2 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 6 or lower


York Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.40 – weddingmates.co.uk Grand Cup (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f CH4

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged between 4-7
10/11 – Had raced in the last 2 months
9/11 – Officially rated 103 or higher
9/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/11 – Finished fifth or better last time out
7/11 – Drawn in stalls 1-4
7/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won at least 4 times before (flat)
5/11 – Had raced at the track before
5/11 – Had won over at least 1m6f in the past
4/11 – Favourites
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
The average SP in the last 11 runnings is 6/1
Note: The 2014 running was a dead-heat
Note: The 2006 & 2007 running was staged at Musselburgh

3.50 - titanbet.co.uk Spring Sprint (Handicap Stakes) Cl2 5f CH4

Only 2 previous runnings
No winning favourite
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 13 from 266 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 95 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 23 (4%) with this older horses at the track
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 3 from 49 (6%) with this older horses at the track
Trainer David Nicholls is just 3 from 67 (4%) with this older horses at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves is just 1 from 48 when riding older horses at the track

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)


5.05 - Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (Group 2) 6f

10/12 – Aged 4, 5 or 6
10/12 – Retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won at least 5 times before
8/12 – Winners from stall 7 or lower
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
7/12 – Won by a UK-based trainer
7/12 – Had raced in the last 2 weeks
7/12 – Had raced at the Curragh before
7/12 – Had won a Group race before
6/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Raced at York last time out
3/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winners from stall 2
2/12 – Favourites
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 12 runnings is 6/1


5.40 - Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) (3yo) 1m

14/14 – Had run within the last 3 weeks
13/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
12/14 – Had won over either 7f or 8f before
11/14 – Had won between 1-4 times before
11/14 – Favourites that finished in the top two
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Had won a Group 1 race before
8/14 – Had run at the Curragh before
7/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Trained by a UK-based stable
7/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
7/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 4/1 Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008) & Gleneagles (2015) all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 4/1

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 7th March 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.30 Lingfield : Lunar Deity @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Raced keen, tracked leaders, effort 2f out, one pace final furlong)

Monday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Lingfield:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bawden Rocks @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

David Bridgwater's NH runners on heavy ground have been very successful over the last couple of years and since the start of 2014, their record amounts to 14 winners from 58 (24.1% SR) and whilst the level stakes profits of 6.63pts represent a modest ROI of 11.4%, profit is profit and it also provides a good starting point for drilling down into the numbers.

The following ten angles from those 58 runners are all profitable and relevant today, so here goes...

  • males are 13/54 (24.1% SR) for 8.3pts (+15.3% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-10 or more are 14/43 (32.6% SR) for 21.6pts (+50.3% ROI)
  • handicappers are 11/37 (29.7% SR) for 15.9pts (+42.8% ROI)
  • chasers are 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 14.1pts (+42.7% ROI)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 10/1 are 10/31 (32.3% SR) for 25.1pts (+81% ROI)
  • those whose last run was more than 20 days ago (but less than year!) are 9/29 (31% SR) for 20.8pts (+71.8% ROI)
  • those rated (OR) 80 to 110 are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 15.8pts (+83.4% ROI)
  • those ridden by Jake Hodson are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 2.2pts (+11.6% ROI)
  • those wearing cheekpieces are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 3.38pts (+37.5% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds are 4/8 (50% SR) for 11.9pts (+148.8% ROI)

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Bawden Rocks at 11/4 BOG, a price available with over a dozen firms at 9.45pm, so to see your preferred bookie's prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch has Finished

Just a quick line to advise those who visit the site but don't receive our emails...

Double Dutch finished on the 29th February after a run of just over two and a half years. During that time it recorded a profit of 67.13 points.

It was a free service which, in truth, took a lot of time and resource to put together. That time and those resources became unsustainable with the wider demands of a growing subscriber base for Geegeez Gold.

Both Chris and I sincerely hope you enjoyed the Double Dutch service over the years, and we know that some of you have introduced this style of betting to your own habits. That's a great legacy for what was a fun daily bet.

In lieu of the Double Dutch offering, from the start of this month Mal's placepot posts have included a suggested perm. So, for those who like such a bet, do check Mal's Placepot Pointers out here.

Double Dutch, 29th February 2016

Saturday started badly for us as Ballyglasheen fell at the very first hurdle at Chepstow and then when Floreseco made a bad error three from home, the game was already up, I'm afraid.

Grendisar did, however, restore some pride, by landing the Lingfield feature 10 minutes later to maintain his recent fine form, but for DD unters, the damage was done and another 2pt loss was incurred.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Floresco : 4th at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Ballyglasheen : fell at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Grendisar : WON at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Festive Fare : 4th at 7/4 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
815 winning selections from 2942 = 27.70%
251 winning bets in 761 days = 32.98%

Stakes: 1521.00pts
Returns: 1590.13pts
P/L : +69.13pts (+4.55% ROI)

And to Monday's Selections...

2.50 Wolverhampton :

Despite Cee Jay being among the more exposed runners here, the fact that he has made the frame in three of his four maidens sets the standard on form here. Jockey Jim Crowley is on fire at the moment and has a good record at this venue, as does trainer Jeremy Noseda, whose yard seems to be on the verge of sparking into life again. A weak race could well go our way here at 3/1 BOG.

Your first 30 days for just £1

In opposition, I'm going with the debutant Bromley Cross. Probably not named after the suburb of Bolton, but a tenuous local (for me, anyway) link is often mildly amusing/interesting.

He cost £35,000 as a foal and £60,000 as a 2 yr old and whilst sales fees aren't always the best indicator of potential, somebody thinks he has promise. Bromley Cross is by Dandy Man, a good sprinter in his day and he's also the half brother of Lucifers Shadow and his dam was the sister to an Irish Listed class winner, so his breeding looks decent enough for this level and a chance could well be taken at 100/30 BOG.

4.50 Ayr :

Nicky Richards' horses go well here at Ayr and now runs Progress Drive for the second time. This one was third over C&D (heavy) on debut, but was later disqualified after the jockey weighed in 2lbs light. The experience of the run and the excellent record of the yard wih unexposed bumpers suggest he's the one to beat here and you can currently get 15/8 BOG about him, now that the original favourite has been withdrawn.

Grays Choice is also of some interest here, breeding suggests he wants (much) further in time, but has already shown promise at this shorter trip by finishing fourth in two bumpers at Musselburgh. He possibly did too much too soon last time out, having raced prominently before fading away and I'm sure the lessons will be learned from that experience and given a more patient/cautious approach, Grays Choice has every chance here at 11/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Cee Jay / Progress Drive @ 10.50/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : Stan James)
Cee Jay / Grays Choice @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Bromley Cross / Progress Drive @ 11.46/1 (10/3 & 15/8 : Bet365 & Stan James)
Bromley Cross / Grays Choice @ 14.16/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 27th February 2016

As good as Thursday was for/to us, Friday was equally poor, I'm afraid as we continue to struggle for any real consistency.

In the opener at Lingfield, the money came for Englishwoman (13/8 from 2/1) as she sought the first 4-timer whilst our other runner, Equijade, was friendless in the market (10/1 from 11/4!), yet it was the latter that ran best, beaten by 2.5 lengths into third place with the favourite trailing in last of the six a further 3 lengths back.

That was obviously not good for us and it meant that the Warwick race wasn't going to count for much, which is just as well, because As de Fer's 5th place finish (beaten by 25L!) was as good as it got, whilst Hi Vic was pulled up 2 from home after several mistakes and an uncharacteristically poor run.

Friday's results were as follows:

Equijade : 3rd at 10/1 (adv 11/4)
Englishwoman : 6th at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
----------------------------------------------------
As de Fer : 5th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Hi Vic : PU at 8/1 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
814 winning selections from 2938 = 27.68%
251 winning bets in 760 days = 32.94%

Stakes: 1519.00pts
Returns: 1590.13pts
P/L : +71.13pts (+4.68% ROI)

And to Saturday's Selections...

3.10 Chepstow :

Your first 30 days for just £1

Evan Williams' hurdlers were 7/21 here at Chepstow last year and more long term, jockey Paul Moloney is 9/41 on the Williams handicap hurdlers here at this track, which suggests we'll get a decent run from the 4/1 BOG Ballyglasheen. This is a horse who won a Gr 3 (Swinton) at Haydock last year, but has failed to build on that after going up in the weights. He's now, however, 2lbs lower than that last win, giving him every chance here.

The one to beat, though, is Floresco at 5/2 BOG, a horse in really good nick having finished 2221 in his four runs this year. Neither the trip nor the ground conditions should hold any fears here and despite a 6lb penalty for a win at Wincanton last time out, he stands every chance of going in again here.

3.20 Lingfield :

Grendisar was second in this race last year, headed late on in a three quarter length defeat and he'll be keen to make amends this year. He warmed up for this event by landing a C&D Listed race last time out, which took his record over track and trip to 4 wins from 9 . Today's jockey, Adam Kirby, is 3 from 6 on this horse in those C&D contests and Grendisar is priced at 11/4 BOG to take his record when running in February to 4 from 4.

Stiffest opposition is expected to come from Festive Fare, as it did last time out, when he chased Grendisar home, going down by just half a length. In his defence, he never really travelled well that day, looking unsettled for large parts of the contest, so to get so close to the winner was a feat in itself. The cheekpieces are applied today in a bid to calm him down and if successful, a win at 9/4 BOG could well be on the cards for a horse who is 1112 on the A/W.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Floresco / Festive Fare @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : generally)
Floresco / Grendisar @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : generally)
Ballyglasheen / Festive Fare @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : generally)
Ballyglasheen / Grendisar @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : generally)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 26th February 2016

After a frustrating run of late followed by a near miss on Wednesday, Thursday proved to be a much better day for us.

Two handicap chases an hour apart yielded two winners, a runner-up (providing an 11.5/1 exacta) and a third place, meaning we came away from the day with a 13.63/1 double after Oscar Oscar and Vazaro Delafayette had won comfortably by 16 and 11 lengths respectively.

I could do with a few more days like that!

Thursday's results were as follows:

Oscar Oscar : WON at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
Discoverie : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
The Exacta paid £12.50 here to a £1 stake
----------------------------------------------------
Vazaro Delafayette : WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Hollow Blue Sky : 3rd at 1/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
814 winning selections from 2938 = 27.68%
251 winning bets in 760 days = 32.94%

Stakes: 1519.00pts
Returns: 1590.13pts
P/L : +71.13pts (+4.68% ROI)

And to Friday's Selections...

3.00 Lingfield :

Your first 30 days for just £1

The penny has certainly dropped of late for Englishwoman, who now comes here with a double penalty after three consecutive wins over today's 5f (twice) and 6f. That said, she's still available at 2/1 BOG in a 6-runner race, probably due to this being her first run here at Lingfield and also because of the extra weight. Her 5lb climer jockey has replaced with one claiming 7lbs so that helps slightly and the yard has done well here in recent times. On form, Englishwoman is the clear pick...

...but should things not quite to go to plan, handicap debutant Equijade is the one I'd side with. A course and distance winner here at Lingfield on debut 13 days ago despite making an excusable start. that said, she still won by a good four lengths and although the quality of that race probably wasn't too high, she could only beat what she faced and she did that well. Further improvement is expected and as such, Equijade looks a decent backup at 11/4 BOG.

4.15 Warwick :

Anthony Honeyball has really got As de Fer on top of his game right now and depsite a hike in weights, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him land the hat-trick here over 3m on soft ground. He won on this track (3m1.5f, soft) two starts ago, before winnning over shorter on heavy ground at Wincanton three weeks ago. A quick look at his profile suggests class, track, trip, course direction etc are all ideal for him and he's 2/2 under the promisingly talented David Noonan who claims 5lbs. Based on all that, 9/2 BOG looks a tad generous.

He won't have it all his own way, though and I'd expect the 11yr old Hi Vic to pose the biggest challenge today. Lightly raced for his age with just 5 starts under Rules, a form line of 11213 is impressive stuff. Similar to As de Fer, neither the trip nor the going will be his undoing here and he is also 2 from 2 with his jockey and away from the racecourse has won two of 7 PTP contests and made the frame in 2 of his defeats. Stamina should be fine and 9/2 BOG about Hi Vic looks reasonable.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Englishwoman / As de Fer @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Englishwoman / Hi Vic @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : generally)
Equijade / As de Fer @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Equijade / Hi Vic @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : Bet365)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 25th February 2016

On a poor day's racing yesterday, I felt I'd identified two very winnable races at Lingfield, despite a lack of both depth and quality. And I was right in that respect, but the day turned into another of those frustrating encounters that have typified recent times for DD.

I liked Flighty Filia in the 3.20 race for a number of reasons and with the well-backed (5/6 from an already too short 13/8) favourite failing to see the race out successfully, she took full advantage late on getting up by half a length. We were on at 11/2, so we'd a great stake for race 2...

...where the tables were turned and our runner, long-time leader Secret Sinner was herself overhauled in the final furlong on her way to a 1.75 length defeat that denied us a juicy 38/1 payout that would have put a totally different complexion on the numbers below.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Flighty Filia : WON at 5/1 (adv 11/2)
Ruler of the Nile : 4th at 5/6 (adv 13/8)
----------------------------------------------------
Secret Sinner : 2nd at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Faster Company : 6th at 6/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
812 winning selections from 2934 = 27.68%
250 winning bets in 759 days = 32.94%

Stakes: 1517.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +65.82pts (+4.34% ROI)

And to Thursday's Selections...

2.55 Sedgefield :

11 go to post here and I think it's a 3-horse encounter in reality and assuming I don't discard the wrong one, we should be fine! And although Rosquero was a winner last time out three weeks ago, he's the one I'm omitting. Age isn't on his side, he rarely puts two decent runs together, he's up in weight and in all fairness, everytthing went his way last time out. (guaranteed to win now!)

Your first 30 days for just £1

So, that takes us to a pair of more consistent sorts, starting with the 7/2 BOG Oscar Oscar, who made ther frame in four of his last five hurdle races, before a switch to fences for the first time three weeks ago. He was by no means disgraced in going down by 4 lengths in third place over a trip far too short for him (very one paced in the final flourishes). The extra half mile should suit him more today, I'd have thought.

The runner-up that day (2 lengths ahead) was Discoverie (also 7/2 BOG), who also seemed to need further, but still impressed on what was also his own chasing debut. There wasn't too much between the pair I've selected and that Discoverie is a couple of pounds worse off, I can see them being closely matched again today. It should also be added that they were both beaten by a proven reliable chaser last time out and I'd expect both to come on for the run today.

3.55 Huntingdon :

Vazaro Delafayette was an expensive purchase as an ex-Pointer and showed some promise  as chaser when tackling the larger obstacles for the first time last time out. He was running after a break of 441 days when finishing third here a fortnight ago. A drop in trip and the benefit of having had a run should stand this potential improver in good stead and with the Pipe / Scudamore combination having a 31% strike rate in handicaps here, a bet at 9/4 BOG could well pay dividends today.

That's assuming he gets the better of the 5/2 BOG Hollow Blue Sky, who has made the frame in both chase starts at this venue (winning once), relisghes the soft ground and is back at a trip more suitable for him today. Just a pound higher than his last win, but racing 2 grades lower than that success, he really has to be feared/respected here today. he won this race in 2014 and showed signs of a return to form when a decent second at Doncaster LTO four weeks ago. Only 4 of his 11 rivals have reappeared since, but they have three wins and a place from those four starts!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Oscar Oscar / Vazaro Delafayette @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Oscar Oscar / Hollow Blue Sky @ 13.63 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Discoverie / Vazaro Delafayette @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Racebets)
Discoverie / Hollow Blue Sky @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 24th February 2016

Awful, just awful. That's my "expert summary" of yesterday's performance.

When a third place runner, beaten by almost a dozen lengths is the best you can muster, you know you've had a poor day! That was where Decade Player finished at Taunton, in a race where our other runner was backed in to 6/4 at the off and only made it to the second fence, where he made a hash of it and unseated his rider.

Mind you, the game was already up after our Wetherby runners were 4th and 11th of 12 runners. Copt Hill fared "best", by only losing by almost 20 lengths with Zayfire Aramis a further 7 places and 23 lengths on what transpired to be a very poor day at the office for me.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Copt Hill : 4th at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Zayfire Aramis : 11th at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Decade Player : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
The Wealerdealer : UR at 6/4 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
811 winning selections from 2930 = 27.68%
250 winning bets in 758 days = 32.98%

Stakes: 1515.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +67.82pts (+4.48% ROI)

And to Wednesday's Selections...

3.20 Lingfield :

When I was looking for some stat angles from today's cards, I noticed that Jim Crowley was riding Flighty Filia here for Amanda Perret and they've had some success together of late, so I dug a bit further and found that if you backed this combo here at Lingfield since the start of 2008, you'd have had 26 winners from 118 bets (22% SR) and 69.1pts profit (+58.6% ROI). The horse herself looks dangerously well weighted receiving a 6lbs allowance and her best run came over track and trip two starts ago.

She was only beaten by a head that day and had Coorg three parts of a lengths further back. Coorg had gone into that race off the back of a win, but finished third and has since won each of his three starts, taking his recent form to 13111, suggesting Flighty Filia has some potential and could very well be a better prospect than her current 11/2 BOG pricetag might suggest!

Your first 30 days for just £1

The problem she has, though, is that she has always managed to find at least one (or more!) to beat her in each of her 9 starts to date, and the presence of the 13/8 BOG Ruler of the Nile suggests that might well be the case again today. The latter has really stepped up since being sent out on these longer trips and was third at Wolverhampton, beaten by less than a length over 16.5f and then second here over course and distance, a neck behind a runner that has since completed a hat-trick.

Ruler of the Nile was then a winner next/last time out when getting home by a full seven lengtrhs over Kemnpton's 2 miles, despite being eased right down from a fair way out. He's obviously penalised for that effort, but he could well have won by 20/30/40 lengths etc, had he/his team wanted to, so his weight/true ability is difficult to assess and as such, he's the one to beat.

4.25 Lingfield :

In a race that shouldn't take too much winning, Secret Sinner's fourth place finish at Kempton last time out looks to be the best piece of recent form on offer and a repeat performance should probably be enough here. She weakened late on and didn't see the 1m4f out that day, so the drop back in trip should also be a bonus and whilst her yard aren't exactly firing in the winners just yet, their runners do seem to be running well and are usually involved in the business end of races.

In fact, 42% of Jamie Osborne's runners have made the frame over the last two months, which is pretty decent and if we can get Secret Sinner to be the latest, then she will have every chance of taking this at 3/1 BOG.

In opposition, we have Faster Company, who has shown some promise since stepping up in trip this year. He did hang late on last time out and so has been fitted with blinkers today in a bid to keep him more controlled and in Aaron Jones, we have a jockey with 3 wins and 4 other top 3 finishes from just 13 rides over the last month and has made the frame in 5 of his 6 Lingfield rides this year. If you think horse and rider can improve upon recent efforts, there's plenty of 5/2 BOG available for Faster Company.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Ruler of the Nile / Faster Company @ 8.19/1 (13/8 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Ruler of the Nile / Secret Sinner @ 9/1 (6/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Flighty Filia / Faster Company @ 21.75/1 (11/2 & 5/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Flighty Filia / Secret Sinner @ 23/1 (5/1 & 3/1 : Stan James)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 23rd February 2016

Fingal's Cave was too good/strong for his rivals in Wolverhampton's finale yesterday, but it counted for nothing after a really poor show in the Lingfield opener with our runners finishing 4th and 6th of justsix runners.

It has been tough over the last week or so, but little/no point dwelling on it, let's crack on!

Monday's results were as follows:

Colourfilly : 4th at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Tabla : 6th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Fingal's Cave : WON at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
National Service : 4th at 5/1 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
811 winning selections from 2926 = 27.72%
250 winning bets in 757 days = 33.03%

Stakes: 1513.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +69.82pts (+4.61% ROI)

And to Tuesday's Selections...

2.10 Wetherby :

An awful looking contest, where only the top two in the betting have shown any kind of recent form worth writing about! So hopefully they'll lead the way home here.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Zayfire Aramis' run at Uttoxeter 24 days ago was his best to date and more impressively came off the back of a 344-day absence from the track. Assuming there's no bounce factor here, a repeat of that effort would more than likely be enough here. He only really got found out late on in that 2m4f encounter, yet still probably would have won it, but for bumping into a progressive sort who was completing a hat-trick. I say that, because the rest of the field were strung out and well beaten. The drop in trip should help and I'd expect him to be in fighting at 3/1 BOG today.

Copt Hill has proven to be more consistent, though, and his 7/2 BOG pricetag might prove a little generous later this afternoon. He doesn't win often enough, but has shown signs that he might be ready to land one with increasingly improved efforts in each of his last three outings, where has has finished third with decreasing margins of defeat each time. Only beaten by half a length in a better race last time out, he now has the in-form Craig Nichol on his back and as it's Craig's only booked ride, he'll be keen to extend his good record in Wetherby handicaps (currently 7/27) on this one.

4.45 Taunton :

Another weak looking contest, where the field seems to be more about quantity than quality! The obvious starting point has to be the 7/4 BOG The Wealerdealer, who was last seen on a racecourse winning a similar event to this at Exeter some 294 days ago, which came 300 days after his last racecourse outing. But during both long absences, he was running in and winning PTP contests, the latest of which was a win 86 days ago. He's clearly in decent form and although he might have something to prove in testing conditions, should still be the pick of the bunch here.

Next best is likely/hopefully the 4/1 BOG Decade Player, who was recently second between the flags on his debut for his new yard, but the drop right back in trip should really suit him based on past form. All his best Irish form came from around this shorter trip in fields of 8 to 15 runners and in a fairly unappealing contest today, he could well build on the promise shown in that PTP event a month ago.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Zayfire Aramis / The Wealerdealer @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Zayfire Aramis / Decade Player @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Paddy Power)
Copt Hill / The Wealerdealer @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Copt Hill / Decade Player @ 20.67/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Betfair Sports)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 22nd February 2016

The three mile hunter chase on heavy ground at Haydock certainly took its toll on the seniors. One by one, they ulled up, leaving just two finishers from seven and it was our pick, Pearlysteps, that made all and fairly coasted to an 85-lengths victory.

Unfortunately though, the double had already gone, after we'd only managed third and fourth at Lingfield earlier in the day. Come On Dave was unlucky to get beaten by 2.5 lengths, I felt, after clipping heels at just the wrong time, losing momentum and ground.

These incidents are, of course, part and parcel of racing in "the pocket", but we're a little aggrieved that it contributed to us missing a possible 13/1 payout.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Come On Dave : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Taajub : 4th at 6/1 (adv 9/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Pearlysteps : WON at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Richmond : PU at 11/4 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
810 winning selections from 2922 = 27.72%
250 winning bets in 756 days = 33.07%

Stakes: 1511.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +71.82pts (+4.75% ROI)

And to Monday's Selections...

2.20 Lingfield :

Your first 30 days for just £1

Tabla has raced here twice over course and distance in the past, winning one and losing one by just over half a length and although beaten again here last time out, should put up another bold show. In fairness, she didn't see the 1m2f trip out last time and the drop back to a mile should suit. She was lit up and a bit too keen last time, which won't have helped and the visor has been reached for today in a bid to settle her earlier. If it works, then 7/2 BOG could be a nice price.

But she does have a knack of finding one just too good for her and that's likely to be the case again today in the shape of the 2/1 BOG Colourfilly, who despite still being a maiden after 8 races, has shown both promise and progression in her last three runs since a switch to Tom Dascombe's yard. Both yard and jockey have good records here at this track with Jim Crowley riding really well at present, it could well be 9th time lucky for Colourfilly at 2/1 BOG.

5.55 Wolverhampton :

Fingal's Cave paid the price for travelling too strongly at Chelmsford 11 days ago on his return from an 8 month break. He was finally overhauled inside the last furlong of that one mile contest, eventually beaten into fourth place by a length and a half. He should strip fitter for having had the run and if employing the same tactics off the same mark under the same jockey, the drop back in trip to 7f could be the key to a win at 5/2 BOG.

The main threat looks to be National Service, despite him still being rated some 8lbs higher than when winning at Kempton three starts ago. Gordon Elliott's horses are in really good form (8/24 in the last 2 weeks and 5/15 in the past 7 days) and whilst he doesn't send many too Wolverhampton (just 40 in 8 years!), this horse has one win and one runner-up finish from just two runs here, both over course and distance, making him of obvious interest at 100/30 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Colourfilly / Fingal's Cave @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Colourfilly / National Service @ 11.46/1 (15/8 & 10/3 : Betfair, BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Tabla / Fingal's Cave @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : generally)
Tabla / National Service @ 18.50/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : Betfair, BetVictor, Hills & Paddy Power)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Haydock : Cloudy Too @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, hit 13th, ridden after 4 out, no impression from next, left modest 3rd approaching last)

Monday's runner goes in the...

3.05 Carlisle:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alto des Mottes @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2013, jockey Brian Hughes has a 17.2% strike rate here over fences at Carlisle, after winning 10 of his 58 efforts in that period and he fares particularly well when there's some money about for his mounts, as his record on those priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 9 winners from 26 (34.6% SR) for modest level stakes profits (but profit nontheless!) of 2.9pts at an ROI of 11.1%.

Of those 26 runners at 5/1 and shorter, those running on heavy ground are 4/10 (40% SR) for 2.5pts (+25% ROI) and it's one such runner that brings Brian here for his only ride of the day, so all his eggs are in the same basket as ours!

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That said, Alto des Mottes should relish the conditions here and he comes here in good form. He's a promising 6yr old gelding who broke his duck over hurdles last May over 3m on heavy ground at Hexham, before being rested for the best part of six months ahead of launching a winter campaign over fences. He seemed progressive in finishing 435 in his first three runs, before getting off mark at Newcastle just before Christmas, also on heavy ground over 2m7.5f.

He has run once since, when 2nd of 12 at Catterick stepped up in trip to 3m6f on soft ground and he really should have won to come here seeking a hat-trick. He was 8 lengths clear approaching the last fence which he made a hash of. That took all his momentum away and was caught and headed on his way to a half length defeat.

The drop back in trip should allay any stamina fears, and it's worth noting that Barton's Gift, who won over 3m1f on Saturday, was 45 lengths further back that day! He has actually won twice and finished as a runner-up once from three runs at 2m7.5f & 3m, whilst has he two wins and a place on heavy ground.

When sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter, he has 2 wins and 3 top 3 finishes from 7 runs and in fields of 7 runners or less, he has 2 wins and 2 top 3 finishes from 6 attempts.

And at 2m7.5f / 3m on heavy ground Alto des Mottes is 2 from 2.

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Alto des Mottes at 3/1 BOG with either Bet365 or Betvictor, who are best priced at present (6.25pm), whilst there's also 3/1 non-BOG on offer from both Ladbrokes and Stan James (they both go BOG in the morning), so why not...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Carlisle

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Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 20th February 2016

We had to settle for a pair of runner-up finishes on friday and whilst on paper, that looks like a fairly reasonable stab at landing a 21.5/1 double, the reality on sodden turf was that we weren't really all that close.

Blandfords Gunner may have only gone down by just over 2 lengths, but was in 2nd place three out and was held from that point, whilst later, Just So Cool was headed before the penultimate hurdle and found very little in response, going down to a fourteen length defeat.

So a pair of 2's looks fine, until you get close up, I suppose!

Friday's results were as follows:

Blandfords Gunner : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Legal Exit : 6th at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
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Just So Cool : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Major Milborne : 4th at 9/2 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
809 winning selections from 2918 = 27.72%
250 winning bets in 755 days = 33.11%

Stakes: 1509.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +73.82pts (+4.89% ROI)

And to Saturday's Selections...

2.35 Lingfield :

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Taajub looks big to me at 9/2 BOG, considering he's 4 from 7 over course and distance and 4 from 6 whenever running in the month of February. Those figures were enhanced by a track and trip win last time out and although he's up 5lbs for a 2.25 length success (a tad harsh, I feel), this is a track that seems to reward former winners and at the price available, he represents the value option for me.

In opposition, I'd expect Come On Dave to be there or thereabouts on his second debut for John Butler. After John stopped training, this horse moved to Phil McEntee and was 0 from 10, but now back with Mr Butler, he'll look to pick up where he left off, having won on his last run for the yard. He's 4lbs lower than that last winning mark and his record on the A/W for the Butler yard reads 15121, all over this 5f trip and including a course and distance win. If you think another is on the cards, he's available at up to 7/2 BOG.

5.00 Haydock :

Henry Daly's horses are running pretty well at present and he has a decent record here at Haydock. Then add to the mix the facts that his horses tend to go well on heavy ground and that he's represented by last year's winner of this race and you've got yourself a live contender in the shape of Pearlysteps. He's carrying 3lbs less than last year, thanks to his jockey's claim and looked in good nick on his seasonal reappearance at Taunton before unseating three out last month. The run will have done him good and he's the one to beat here at 9/4 BOG.

After Pearlysteps lost his rider that day, Richmond went on to finish second in the same contest on his debut in hunter chases and also for a new yard. He repeated that result three weeks ago at Warwick, so he has clearly taken to this new sphere very well. The third placed horse from the afore-mentioned Taunton race has gone on to win since and if that form holds out, 7/2 BOG here might prove profitable!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Come On Dave / Pearlysteps @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Come On Dave / Richmond @ 18.50/1 (10/3 & 7/2 : Betway)
Taajub / Pearlysteps @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Taajub /Richmond  @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Betway)

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