Tag Archive for: Haydock

Candy still sweet on big sprint prizes for evergreen Run To Freedom

Henry Candy will target the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock and the Qipco British Champions Sprint at Ascot with Run To Freedom, after his veteran sprinter proved he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level at Newmarket on Saturday.

Although a dual winner in Listed company, the seven-year-old has run his best races in defeat, most notably filling the runner-up spot as a 150-1 shot on Champions Day in 2022 and in the the July Cup the following summer.

However, having only made it to the track once last season and failed to make a major impact on his first two starts this term, Run To Freedom was 40-1 for his second tilt at July Cup glory – but outran his odds to finish third, beaten two lengths by the surprise winner No Half Measures.

Candy said: “I thought it was a great run. He’s got it in him, he just wants thing to go right.

“He’s done that in the Champions Sprint and he’s done it in the July Cup before. You always hope he’s going to do it again, but then you look at the strength of the field he’s up against and see what price he is and think ‘oh dear, I’ve made a mistake!’.

“But he keeps delivering, hopefully he’ll grab one one day and all being well we’ll go to Haydock and then we’ll go to Ascot. We won’t go to the Prix Maurice de Gheest (at Deauville), I don’t think he’s a horse that wants running too often.

“A little bit softer ground would definitely help him.”

Estrange edges Lancashire Oaks verdict

Red-hot favourite Estrange was made to pull out all the stops to see off Scenic in a thrilling renewal of the bet365 Lancashire Oaks at Haydock.

The David O’Meara-trained Estrange had made a huge impression when landing the Group Three Lester Piggott Stakes over the course and distance in late May, with targets as lofty as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe being mentioned in the aftermath.

Carrying the colours of Cheveley Park Stud, the grey was a 2-7 favourite to follow up at Group Two level and while she managed to get the job done in the hands of Danny Tudhope, her supporters were made to sweat.

O’Meara told Racing TV: “Danny was caught in a position where the leader (Love Talk) went off and it’s a question of when do you go after them.

“Danny said she normally falls asleep in her races, but today she was trying to chase the leader a bit and didn’t quite drop the bit and ended up in front then a long time. It isn’t really how we’d like to play her, but it was a means to an end I guess.

“She’s four from five now and she’s won her Group Two today, so it’s brilliant.”

Just four runners went to post for the Merseyside feature, with rank outsider Love Talk taking the quartet along for much of the mile-and-a-half journey before Estrange was coaxed into the lead approaching the final two furlongs.

However, James Doyle covered the move aboard Ed Walker’s Scenic and following a final furlong tussle, Estrange found just enough to win the argument by a neck.

David O'Meara has Group One ambitions with Estrange
David O’Meara has Group One ambitions with Estrange (Mike Egerton/PA)

While the victory was harder work than many expected, Paddy Power reacted by cutting the winner’s Arc odds to 12-1 from 20-1.

“We were hoping we wouldn’t turn up on good to firm so the drop of rain helped. I don’t think she’s absolutely reliant on heavy ground or anything like that, she just doesn’t want to be running on very quick ground,” O’Meara added.

“The Yorkshire Oaks would be the next target and we’ve got five or six weeks until York.

“She’s very relaxed, she’s unbelievable. Today she wasn’t as relaxed as she normally is because of the way the race developed, but it’s fine.”

Estrange takes next step with Lancashire Oaks challenge

Five weeks on from her scintillating seasonal debut on Merseyside, Estrange returns to Haydock for the bet365 Lancashire Oaks on Saturday.

A brilliant winner on her Goodwood introduction last summer, David O’Meara’s filly failed to fire in a Listed event at Yarmouth next time but bounced back in some style at Doncaster in November.

The Cheveley Park Stud-owned four-year-old was not even favourite for her reappearance in the Group Three Lester Piggott Stakes at the end of May, but breezed clear of her rivals in impressive fashion.

“We were heading to Haydock the last day with quite a bit of hope – we thought she was very good based on her homework,” said O’Meara.

“I thought she would see out a mile and a half and it made for pretty easy watching. She lobbed along and it was apparent in the straight, when a lot of the other fillies were coming under pressure, that when Danny (Tudhope) eased her out she looked like she was just doing a half-speed.

“It was a great sense of relief when she won as so much can go wrong in races and sometimes horses don’t live up to what we think of them, but she certainly lived up to expectations.

“The ease with which she won did take me a bit by surprise, but we did expect her to put up a good show.”

David O’Meara has high hopes for Estrange
David O’Meara has high hopes for Estrange (John Walton/PA)

Connections have made no secret of the regard in which Estrange is held, with targets as lofty as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe being mooted.

O’Meara added: “Amazing Maria was brilliant for us then we also had G Force, while Mondialiste gave me great satisfaction when we took him to Canada and he won the Woodbine Mile.

“Far more of those good horses end up in other yards, so we are very aware that we are very fortunate to have Estrange in the yard and Cheveley Park Stud have always been very supportive to us.”

Scenic impressed in the Bronte Cup at York
Scenic impressed in the Bronte Cup at York (Mike Egerton/PA)

Chief among Estrange’s rivals in Saturday’s Group Two feature is Ed Walker’s Scenic, winner of the Group Three Bronte Cup at York on her most recent outing and subsequently recruited by the powerful Wathnan Racing team.

Walker said: “It’s a small field and fingers crossed it should be a good opportunity for her.

“Her plan since last year has been the Bronte, the Lancashire Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. That was always the plan and we’re still well on track.”

Roving Reports: Data Driven Drizzle

It's a wet and cold Monday morning here in Nottingham, writes David Massey, and the news has just been announced that it's been the warmest January since they started measuring such things, which apparently was in 1919. As a slave to the data then of course - of course! - I believe the science when it tells me as such. It's just that the places I seem to have visited during that most miserable of months have managed to dodge any semblance of sunshine, as demonstrated by the fact I don't recall any tracks I attended having to miss out obstacles because of low sun.

I tell a lie - Doncaster on a Friday. Ah yes, I remember it well now. The warmth on the back of my neck as I wrote my notes about the brave and talented warriors about to contest the 0-100 handicap hurdle. A brief glimpse of potential spring, snatched away not two days later as I tried to make my way around a flooded Herefordshire.

Yes, I did one of my bi-annual excursions to the Welsh borders at the end of last month. After making a day trip to Cheltenham on the Saturday and remarking how much the water had receded around the Evesham area since my last visit, by the time Monday came back around it was starting to rise again, and quickly. I stayed in Worcester, by the cricket ground, on the Sunday night (although I didn't realise this until first light Monday morning, when the first thing I saw on opening the curtains was the Basil d'Oliveira Stand) and no sooner had I arrived there than the words "precautionary inspection" were uttered at Hereford, along with the phrase "cautiously optimistic". As I've said before, any clerk of the course using the word "optimistic" in an update should be fined five grand, and ten if they precede it with "cautiously". The BHA could, however, use that money to pay for trainer interviews, where famous Berkshire handler Willie Runnem-Ornot can tell us his horse has had a setback for the Cheltenham Festival, but he's "cautiously optimistic" he can get him back on track if Kempton will let the lad have a gallop round next Tuesday when there's no press about. That'll be two grand please. Cash in a brown envelope? Yes, that’ll do fine, thanks for coming along.

And so, early Monday, Hereford bites the dust, and I'm left in a hotel room in Worcester with little to do but look at an empty Graeme Hick stand and nowhere much to go. I'm tempted to hoik it up to Monmore Greyhounds for their afternoon meeting, but my next stop is Ross-on-Wye, in readiness for Chepstow on Tuesday, and I'd be heading the wrong way. I decide instead to do the sensible thing, and just do some pre-emptive Cheltenham writing whilst drinking more hotel coffee than is probably good for me.

The rain is still falling as I set off for Ross. A wise man would have gone back to the motorway at this point and stayed on the main roads but I'm a romantic idiot with time on my hands and decided to go the scenic route using the back roads. I'm glad I did, in some ways - stunning vistas as I drive in the shadow of the Malvern Hills and I also trundle past someone's training establishment - I still haven't worked out who it was - through one of the villages.

Then, about four or five miles out of Ross, there's trouble. I'm in a village where the only way through it is via a bridge, and that's flooded, badly. I stop and try to work out the situation. Gamble, drive through and potentially flood the engine, or (according to Google Maps) track back almost eight miles and add another half an hour to my journey time? I didn't need to wait long for an answer. A lorry goes past me and through the flood. It's deep, too deep. This is confirmed by a Range Rover who does the same, and barely gets through it. For once, common sense kicks in and I turn around. The Malverns look as lovely as they did twenty minutes ago from the reverse angle.

You know that feeling you get sometimes when you arrive somewhere and think "I've been here before, but I can't quite remember when?" - I get that as I pull up in Ross at my Premier Inn. I know I've been here, but I can't quite remember when, or why. Then it dawns on me. I came here once with a good friend a long, long time ago on the way back from our one and only trip to Ffos Las. We had dinner in the Beefeater next door and then a night of great sex in the hotel. Well, that's my recollection of things. She says we just had a poorly-cooked steak and the only pudding I got was sticky toffee before we hit the M50 half an hour later. I think she's probably right. I suspect I've let my imagination get the better of me. It was about ten years ago, after all. Anyway, I'm here again, and I ask the receptionist to book me into the (now) Travellers Rest next door for dinner.

"You'll have a job. The place closed months ago. It's derelict and being knocked down." That's the end of that, then. Serves them right for undercooking my steak.

There's a precautionary inspection at Chepstow tomorrow now. This journey could be a fairly expensive busted flush. However, some light emerges at the end of the tunnel, and for once it isn't an oncoming train.

To amuse myself whilst writing I've had an each-way Yankee at Plumpton and after a 25-1 winner (in a four-horse race too, all to win!) along with another winner and place it's looking pretty good. I'm offered a decent cash out. I never cash out. Never. But... the cash out would cover the price of the trip, and if Chepstow bit the dust tomorrow, it wouldn't matter too much. For the second time in a day, I do the sensible thing and cash out. Do I need to tell you what happened to the fourth selection? Of course I don't. It won half the track. The only consolation being I did have a few quid on as a single. Still, a bit gutting, although I remind myself the whole trip is now paid for if it all goes blank tomorrow. And as the rain falls down on a humdrum town, as The Smiths warbled back in 1984, it has to be said that looks a very likely scenario.

Tuesday morning. Miracle of miracles, Chepstow is somehow on. I'm actually going to get some racing.

I'm going with my friend Alex who I haven't seen in years. She awards herself the title of "Assistant Media Bitch" for the day, which not only suits her well, but could catch on elsewhere, I reckon. I know a few that would fit that title perfectly. Anyway, we have a cracking day, the highlight of which - for her - was making Richard Hoiles a cup of tea. "It won't get any better than that today", she excitedly shrieks. I manage to find a couple of losers before Royal Jewel digs me out, and then Lagertha is something of a paddock standout in the Mares Novice. It'll be a winning day, which is always nice. I don't have a penny on Jo Lescribaa but I'm delighted for my friend Andy who has a interest in her, and all in all it's been a really enjoyable trip despite the grim weather. Better still, it has rekindled Alex's love for a day at the races. She hasn't been for some time - "the game isn't the same as it was", she says, but I hope she will go racing, at least in midweek when it's a bit quieter, again in the near future. The drive home is a long one, but a call in at the ever-lovely Gloucester Services breaks it up.

Back to the present day. The app on my phone now tells me "Rain coming in under an hour." Any chance of a look at that weather data again, please? It's Leicester on Thursday and Haydock on Saturday for me this week. The Trackside bobble hat will be on, I can assure you. Say hello if you see me, or if it's as warm as the data says, Stop Me and Buy One. Either way, have a great week.

- DM

Tix Picks, Friday 18/10/24

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Fakenham, Haydock, Newcastle, Redcar & Uttoxeter.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The big money is (quite rightly) up here in the North West where the going is set to be heavy at Haydock for a short six-race meeting that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 1.45, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo Novice Stakes over 1m...

Yabher's win on debut 34 days ago and Minella Boss' runner-up finish four days earlier are the only two real pieces of form here.

Yabher won more comfortably than the winning margin would suggest, his yard have a good record here at Haydock, a good record with LTO winners and also runners making their second appearance...

Minella Boss' runner-up finish might actually flatter him, it was a poor-looking Galway maiden and he was beaten by some 12 lengths, which is almost as far from winning as Cangofar's 14 length defeat on debut. Condotti went down by 20 lengths on debut, but was 'only' beaten by 8 engths second/last time out, so there was some improvement there, I suppose. Drumcondra was almost 30 lengths adrift a fortnight ago and King Al has yet to run.

The manner of the defeats sufered by all bar Yabher means that King Al might not have to be that good to make the frame here. He's by Al Kazeem, he's a half-brother to Kings Merchant who has won over 5f/6f this year, his dam won over 6f and he cost 50,000 as a 2yo, so someone must fancy him.

It's a bit of a back to front approach, but (5) King All seems to have the least negatives of the rivals to (1) Yabher, so I'll take these two.

Leg 2 @ 2.20, a 7-runner, Class 5, 2yo Nursery over 7f...

Karl Carlston won last time out, just holding on to score by a nose at Chelmsford a fortnight ago. Lovely Spirit and Cashlyn Cavalier both finished as runners-up, but the former won her penultimate race (7f) and has made the frame in all five career starts including a soft-ground third on debut in May. She also drops in class here.

Timefall and Ran Amok both won three starts back and the latter is possibly better than her 8th place finish LTO might suggest. She was actually 8th of 20 on a £193,000 Class 2 race at the St Leger meeting, beaten by less than six lengths after having won a Class 2 maiden at Newmarket and having made the frame on handicap debut at the same venue (Class 3), so this represents somewhat of a drop in class for her here and her yard/jockey are on fire right now...

We've only a small set of data, of course, but Lovely Spirit leads the way on Instant Expert and with a low/mid draw favoured here and front-runners generally doing well, the head of the pace averages chart...

...makes it impossible for me not to pick (4) Lovely Spirit from stall 1. I expect (3) Karl Carlston to do his utmost best to try and chase here home, but the main danger might well be top weight (2) Timefall, who probably looks the best of the whole field on paper. I'll take all three here, just in case!

Leg 3 @ 2.55, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo Nursery over 6f...

Nebrook Dream won last time out on handicap debut, finishing a length ad a half clear of the pack on heavy ground. The runner-up has since finished second again, but at Class 4 off a mark just one pound lower than Nebrook Dream is today. Herecomesthebear was third beaten by just over three quarters of a length at Redcar but won three starts ago on heavy ground at Ffos Las. Fortaleza has improved position in each of three races since finishing fifth on debut (5432) and was a neck ahead of Herecomesthebear (who is now 2lbs better off) last time out and Sir Palamedes won two starts ago, also on heavy ground at Ffos Las.

As you'd expect off such an inexperienced field, those results I mentioned above translate into green boxes on Instant Expert...

Two of those mentioned above feature in the top three of the pace chart...

, but when push comes to shove, I want to be on those who have won on heavy ground ie (3) Sir Palamedes, (5) Nebrook Dream and (9) Herecomesthebear. I do worry about the improving Fortaleza upsetting the applecart, but she did only beat Herecomesthebear by a neck last time out and she's 2lbs worse off here, so on paper the palcings should be reversed, all things being equal of course.

Leg 4 @ 3.30, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 5f...

Moonstone Boy was only 9th of 17 at York last time but had two wins and three places from his previous three outings, Never Dark won his penultimate race, Trilby has been the runner-up in each of his last two and has five top-three finishes from his last six runs. Our Absent Friends has two wins and a place from his last four starts and Count Dorsay won two races ago, so quite a few are in decent if not winning form.

Trilby and Moonstone Boy have both won on heavy ground already and the former is two from four here at Haydock. Low drawn late finishers and high drawn front runners seem to be the way forward here, which ticks boxes for Trilby and Secret Mistral...

...and puts both Moonstone Boy and Our Absent Friends into the mix. And with Moonstone Boy, Never Dark, Trilby and Secret Mistral all dropping in class today, I have to put (4) Trilby on my ticket builder as he has ticked every box so far. I'll also take bottom weight (8) Secret Mistral on pace/draw plus a drop in class and in a toss-up between Moonstone Boy and Our Absent Friends on countback, I think that (2) Moonstone Boy just about shades it down in class, in decent form, a former heavy ground winner and scores well on pace/draw.

Leg 5 @ 4.05, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

Drama won at Kempton last time out where he has produced his best form. and is 1251 from his last four, Hour by Hour was only sixth LTO beaten by four lengths, but was seeking a hat-trick that day, whilst Mercurial was only narrowly beaten by a neck at Roscommon four days ago. Heavy ground brings Hyperfocus to the fore with his two wins and he has won four of ten starts here at Haydock over the years, making the frame in two of the six defeats as well.

More recent place form puts Woven, Mercurial and Hour By Hour firmly in the picture...

The pace here is likely to be set by (3) Hyperfocus, (6) Mercurial and (8) Hour By Hour...

...and all three have been mentioned positively above, so I'll side with this trio.

Leg 6 @ 4.40, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

Firebrand and On The River both won last time out in the last seven days and the latter is unpenalised for comfortably landing an 18-runner apprentice handicap on soft ground at York and he's the only runner in the field with two wins from their last six outings. Elsewhere there's not much recent form of note; Autumn Festival was a runner-up in a poor seller and Pearl Eye was beaten by just a head on his last handicap run at Chester a month ago.

Pearl Eye is of further interest here, because he has three wins and a place from six efforts over course and distance, including a win on his only career run on heavy ground. Chuck in two wins and a runner-up finish from six soft ground runs and you've got one not fearful of underfoot conditions. He hasn't the best recent win record at Class 3, but it's no better/worse than the rest of this field, which looks more like a Class 4 contest anyway, but his other two-year win stats are impressive enough...

The pace is likely to be set by Firebrand here...

...and that early dart allied to his good form might well be enough to carry him through for a place.

(8) On The River is clearly the one to beat based on that win at York last time out, but (6) Firebrand is in good nick and might try to make all here, so both go on my Tix builder along with course/distance specialist (4) Pearl Eye.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Yabher & (5) King Al

Leg 2: (2) Timefall, (3) Karl Carlston & (4) Lovely Spirit

Leg 3: (3) Sir Palamedes, (5) Nebrook Dream & (9) Herecomesthebear

Leg 4: (2) Moonstone Boy, (4) Trilby,  & (8) Secret Mistral

Leg 5: (3) Hyperfocus, (6) Mercurial & (8) Hour By Hour

Leg 6: (4) Pearl Eye, (6) Firebrand & (8) On The River

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Roving Reports: Chasing the Easter Money

It’s a busy time for bookmakers, is Easter, with a whole raft of meetings both Flat and Jumps to attend, although the early news on Saturday is not great, writes David Massey. Not only has Musselburgh bitten the dust after an early morning deluge, but for the Midlands bookmakers, the point-to-point at Sandon, near Stafford, has also been called off. That’s usually a really well-attended event, and will be a big miss for them. There will be no chance to see Eddie Redmayne, and his dogs, there this year. 

This matters not to us, as we’re off to Haydock for their family fun day. The weather looks mixed, to say the least, and it’s grey and damp as we set off. By the time we get there, however, the sun is trying to break through and things look brighter, literally. 

Other meetings being off means more bookmakers than there were last year at Haydock; four more, in fact, and this means betting on two lines rather than the one we were in last year. (The line takes 17 bookmakers.) When all the punters are in front of you, business is better; if you’re on the front line, you run the risk of a bookmaker betting behind you, and taking a share of your business. Such is the bookmaking life. 

We know what today will be like - all small money, lots of bets on “named” horses (it cannot be coincidence that one of the best backed horses all day with us is called Holly) and now the sun is fully out, we should have a decent day. 

Quiet to get going, as ever, and putting the forecast up for the four-runner first event is a waste of time. Nobody has a clue what it is, and nobody asks. I’d have been better putting the weather forecast up. It might have been more informative. 

As stated, the aforementioned Holly is an each-way disaster in the second race for us, and with the favourite, Brentford Hope, winning it’s a losing race. Secret Trix is much better in the next, but there’s a dinosaur show on for the kids, and business isn’t as strong. 

There are often dinosaurs in the betting ring - most of them will take your bets with a smile - but these two are bigger than the norm. One is a T-Rex and the other one isn’t. Some of the younger kids find it all a bit much. If you’ve bought “crying children” at 15 at the start of the day, go collect. 

Numitor is actually an okay result but Daly Tiger finishing third knocks a fair bit of the place money out. I go to get the coffees and offer up a loyalty card. Despite buying three drinks, it’s only stamped once. “One stamp per visit”, we are told. I shake my head. Come racing. 

Duke Of Deception is a good result but the enormous gamble on One Big Bang is joined in by a fair proportion of the crowd, and that’s not. Said crowd ebbs away pretty quickly after the sixth, with tired and emotional children in tow, carrying their dinosaur merchandise. Elleon wins the last, a good result, and it’s time to go home, although somehow I manage to join the wrong lane at the Haydock Island roundabout and end up taking a three-mile detour to get myself on the M6. 

Sunday sees me at Southwell, and in truth there’s little to say. Southwell are only allowing 100 public in, on top of owners, trainers and annual members, with the downstairs grandstand still out of operation. There’s only three bookmakers in the ring, and one on the rail, and whilst there’s enough business for the four, there’s only just enough. It’s families again, although with a cold, grey day, most are in the warmth upstairs, bar one family determined to stick it out on a couple of picnic tables. There’s an ice-cream van on the premises, but you wouldn’t want a share in it today. Results are irrelevant with the business - at least for four races - when suddenly a big punter appears, wanting a grand each-way Squeaker. He gets laid, and the business, rather than going back to the machine, is shared around the books. Squeaker looks beat at halfway but rattles home and is beaten under a length. He’s copped the each-way money for him, at least. He doesn’t bet the next but smashes into Brother Dave in the penultimate, and when that cops, it looks bleak. We get a bit back off him in the last but we’ve stood all day for very little. And it’s freezing. 

On to Huntingdon on Monday. This is more like it. My first McDonalds of any description for 41 days (not that I’m counting, you never do when you’re on a diet, do you?) is a Bacon Roll and Hash Brown as we make our way down the A14. God, I’d forgotten how good a bacon roll tastes. Everyone knows calories don’t count on Bank Holidays. Just for once, the Shredded Wheat can be passed over. 

After a rainy start, the sun really does come shining through - I contemplated sun cream at one point, no, honestly - and a good crowd are still piling in as the first goes off. If the money was small at Haydock, it’s positively minute here, with about 50% of the bets either £2 win or £1 e/w. Families having five or six bets, novices placing their first ever bets, mums taking advice from their kids, they’re all here today. Two families, from Cambridge, apparently remember my face from last year and have their knicker each-way bets with me all day. “You were very polite”, they tell me. That’s the game on these days - price is irrelevant, customer service everything. This is proven by the very first bet I take - £10 on Annie Day at 10-1 in the first race, when next door to me is 11s. Smile, be nice, have a joke. It works. 

However, I’ve got a problem. Two, to be precise. Because the firm have no fewer then seven pitches running between Huntingdon and the other half of the crew at Fakenham, it means that bits of kit that wouldn’t normally be used are wheeled out today. The laptop I’m using was the very one that Noah used to count the animals onto the Ark two-by-two with. The light board is old too, and for some reason, the bottom half of it isn’t working, which is far from ideal. The laptop crashes, at various inconvenient points throughout the afternoon, no fewer than eight times, and each time I have to restart everything. At the end of the day, I reckon that’s probably cost me a monkey’s worth of business. The temptation to launch the damned thing into the bin at close of play is great, but it’s not my equipment...

This is doubly frustrating with results as good as they are: not a winning favourite in sight until the last two races, by which time business has notably dropped off anyway, with many families off home after the sixth. We’ve won and won well on the day, and although the urge to double-dip at Maccy D’s on the way home is great, I resist. Just. 

And so finally, to Pontefract. I’m not working, just a day out. It normally takes me an hour and 10 minutes from my house to get to the track, so I leave in good time. Or so I thought. 

I drive into the track as they are going into the stalls for the first. The M1 was bad, the A1 worse, and finally Pontefract town centre itself appeared to be at a standstill. The nearer I got to the track, the further away I got, time wise, according to Google Maps. That’s never a good thing. So as you can imagine, I’ve fallen out with myself before I’m even parked up, and when the only parking space left appears to be in the middle of a lake of a puddle, the appeal of turning the car around and going home is strong. 

But I'm glad I didn’t, as it was quite an enjoyable day overall, bumping into a few old friends, backing a winner, then giving most of it back, and probably seeing a future winner in Vallamorey. However, if anyone wants to pop round and clean my car in readiness for Aintree next week (when it’ll DEFINITELY get dirty again) then don’t let me stop you...

- DM

Roving Reports: “Hey! Student”

If you’re wondering why “Hey! Student” is the title of my latest meanderings, well, two reasons, the first of which is obvious enough, writes David Massey. What follows is about Haydock’s Student Day, which took place at the weekend, and for which I was working in the ring; and secondly, I’ve always wanted to crowbar a The Fall song into the title of one of my pieces. For those that care, which I am aware is very few of you, it was originally called “Hey! Fascist” but rebadged once Mark E Smith realised he disliked students more. 

There’s barely a workman alive that won’t have done a racecourse Student Day at some point. They tend to vary from course to course, with some allowing mingling with the crowd to those - like Haydock’s - where the students are penned in to their own area, presumably as much for the safety of the annual members who, it is safe to say, would have limited knowledge of the dubstep classics that the DJ bangs out between races. 

The key piece of kit today is the card machine. If you haven’t got a working card machine, prepare to have a very quiet afternoon. On a normal, civilian, raceday the split of the take would be around 85% cash, 15% on the debit card on average. On a student day, you can pretty much reverse that. The younger generation do not believe in “cash is king”, instead “tap ‘n’ go” is very much the phrase that pays. 

The weather forecast is playing a part, too. Most are suggesting some rain after 4pm, which will mean the last two races could be a bit of a washout. If it’s no worse than that, then we can just about live with it. If it comes earlier, that could badly affect business.

Which would be a shame, as it’s a card of two halves - the first four races, small fields with some odds-on chances, but bigger fields for the handicaps in the second half which give you a chance of taking better money and getting a result. 

An early-ish start of 8.15 (the nights are starting to get longer, aren’t they?) and the fact I’m now on a diet (lousy high cholesterol) mean that the McD’s breakfast is foregone in favour of two Shredded Wheat and some toast. For snacks later in the day; one apple, one orange, and one Tunnocks chocolate wafer, my treat for the day. Welcome to my new, joyless, world of food. 

It’s all quiet on the Preston front when we get there, with the first of the coaches not due until around 11.30, but that gives us plenty of time to get the first pitch up (we’re running two, I’m single-manning the second one) and make sure the card machine is in working order. It is. We get going and straight away a few lads want a bet. In the meantime I’m putting the second pitch up and once I’m up and running, there’s a steady trickle of lads and lasses having a flutter. 

Unsurprisingly, quite a few need a crash course in how to place a wager, and I’m happy to oblige. A bit of a chit-chat with a few reveal many of them are from the Manchester universities, which is where my kids are. (Neither are here.) When I tell them my daughter is also at Manchester Met, one of them asks what halls she’s in. I honestly haven’t a clue. I think about sending my daughter a text to ask but as any of you out there with a teenage daughter knows, if you send them a text, you’ll get a reply around four days later. If you’re lucky. To be fair to my daughter she replies to my query within five hours, which in her world is almost instantaneous. 

One lad, who appears to have been on the ale already, tells me he has to have a tenner on You Wear It Well as “it’s his cousin’s horse.” Now, I’m not saying his cousin isn’t Sir Chips Keswick, but… well, he isn’t. Later, the same lad will perform a quite incredible acrobatic feat as he careers down the steps in the stand, loses his balance, somehow jumps down three steps in one go, not spill a drop of his beer as he regains his balance and runs off in the direction of the burger van. 

I take 40 bets on the first race for the grand sum of £300. You can work out the average bet size yourself. Stainsby Girl is actually popular with those having their fivers on and gets an enormous roar as she wins. Because they’re all betting on cards but getting paid in cash means you need plenty of money on a day like this, too. 

After the first it busies up and there are queues waiting to get on. Almost every bet I take is either a fiver win or fifty bob each way, and whilst the processing time for each punter is a bit longer than normal, there are no complaints and the banter is good-natured. In fact, perhaps to my surprise, I’m quite enjoying the day, despite some terrible dance music between races. 

And what’s this? “£150 win Salver, please.” Cash, as well. Where’s he come from? “He can’t lose!” he tells me. I’m rather fretting that whether Salver wins or not will determine if the lad can eat properly next week, or if he’ll be living off 20p packs of noodles for the foreseeable. I needn’t have worried, as Salver does indeed win with a bit in hand, and the £50 profit he picks up will buy another round or two. He even offers to buy me one. What a lovely lad. 

Butch is very popular in the next. One young lady comes waving her ticket at me, proclaiming “I’ve won, I’ve won!” When I point out to her that they have another circuit to go, her mates rightly laugh at her, and she sheepishly wanders back to the stands. 

And then, disaster. The weather forecast is wrong. The rain arrives a good hour earlier than predicted, and the waterproofs are reached for. It’s such a shame, as the afternoon was building up quite nicely, with the better races to come. It quickly turns to heavy rain and the umbrella goes up. Only thing is, the firm have packed the wrong umbrella. Instead of the big mush, I’ve got the tiny rails umbrella. I might as well stand on the joint with a colander on my head. I have to cover everything, laptop, printer, card machine, money, as the rain comes in sideways. It kills business stone dead. 

I’m now taking half of what I was, and with each race it gets less and less. Worse, the card machine packs up. This is game over. By the time we get to the seventh, the boss tells me to pack up, as it’s pointless carrying on. Everything is soaked, and that includes my clothes, as the waterproofs are now starting to leak too. I pack the kit away, and go and help out on the main pitch for the last race. Behind us, one bookmaker, also packing away, drops the lightboard on the floor as he tries to pack it away. It’s so wet it slipped out of his hands, and crashes to the floor. That could be a very expensive mishap, as a new board will cost him well over a grand - even the cheap ones - if it’s not working. 

By the time we get in the car, at half five, there’s barely a word being said as we’re all so knackered, tired and wet through. It hasn’t stopped the students partying - after the last the music cranks up another five notches, and I offer the paracetamol around. 

A genuine shame that what was promising to be a good day for everyone has fizzled out. And it isn’t as if I’ve anything nice for tea to look forward to. Broccoli, anyone?

- DM

Roving Reports: Let The Music Play

Still something of a quiet summer on the courses for me, writes David Massey, with York throwing up little to report, although Craig David on the Saturday last was a busy day. Or it least it might have been, had the bookmaker in front of me not broken down (his equipment, not him personally) and been unable to take a bet all afternoon. Sadly, all he did was prove a blocker for me as he tried to get his equipment going but alas all to no avail. Let me demonstrate what a difference it makes - for the first four races whilst he tried without success to get going, I took 40 bets a race. Once he decided there was no way he could work and moved his kit from in front of me, I took 140 bets a race for the last three. Position is everything in the ring.

I see from the latest missives coming from the BHA that attendances are up slightly year on year. No doubt these music events have something to do with that but whether they make a difference to betting turnover is a different matter.

Haydock last Friday saw me working the Silver ring for the Nile Rogers and Chic gig. I've seen them twice in the last few years and they are an excellent outfit. You know more Nile Rogers compilations than you think you do, and you always find yourself singing along to Get Lucky at some point in the evening. Anyway, I digress. We're told there's a crowd of around 12,000, which would be about a thousand more than when Madness played here last year, and business that night was colossal, arguably the best I've known in the past 18 months or so. We simply couldn't get everyone on quick enough. So there are high expectations for the evening and we have three pitches (and six workers) in the ring.

However, through nobody's fault at the track, the place absolutely stinks. A local farmer, clearly no fan of Chic, has manured his ground and with the wind blowing in the wrong direction, Haydock doesn't so much rock, as honk. It's awful and very offputting.

Business is always slow to get going on these music nights, with many not turning up until halfway through the card (but will, of course, count in the official attendance) so we're not too downhearted when the first couple of races are poor. However, even when it does get going, it isn't the beano we expected. It's moderate stuff and everyone is betting early, so the last ten minutes before race time we barely strike a bet.

This is very much a "selfie" crowd. Lots of photos taken for social media to show everyone what a great time you're having, but little of that involves having a bet. One woman has a hat on that reads "RIDE" from where I'm stood; thinking that's a bit of a bold statement, it's not until she turns slightly that I can see it actually says "BRIDE". A relief all round, not least to her soon-to-be husband, I guess!

One bloke asks me for a tenner twist forecast 1 and 4 in the next. I inform him I don't do reverse forecasts. "In that case I'll just have a tenner win on 3". Work that one out, because three days later, I certainly haven't.

Twist forecast. Only at Haydock and Aintree do you get asked for those. Reverse forecast everywhere else. I suppose I should be grateful he's not asking me for a Liverpool Round-The-Clock. (Google it, if you're unsure. You can't call yourself a settler until you've done one of those manually. Fun for all the family.)

I've another punter who has, shall we say, had a Tizer or two. He's talking so fast I can't understand a word. We appear to be communicating in Morse Code. Dot dot fiver eight dot, dash each way. He seems happy enough, mind.

Sadly the final race is a three-runner affair, not what you want for the lucky last, and you know what's coming - everyone will back the outsider of the three. I make an easy £20 for myself backing and laying it pre-race - that's my petrol paid for - and when the jolly wins there's little to pay out. We've won on the night but business has only been fair. The only consolation is a call-in at the cheapest chippy in Britain on the way to the digs; fish and chips twice, and a portion of chips, just over £13. And they say you can't eat value.

Saturday is Ladies Day at Haydock, with an expected crowd of 8,000. The weather forecast is for some showers early but clearing up after 2pm. We can only hope that's right.

Sadly the Eau De Farmeur Gilles is still in the air, worse if anything, giving off a right pong. We get up and betting, slow to start again. However, we hit a problem. For some reason, the master pitch can't see my bets. This is a major problem as they can't get a picture of the whole book. I'm frantically trying to make things work, running up and down the ring (one pitch at one end and mine at the other) but nothing works. I give Tech Support at Newmarket a call but they can barely hear me with the PA, as is usually that case at Haydock, too loud in the background. In the end they have to take over the software from their end, a very useful tool, but they do fix the problem (server issues) within a few minutes. Sadly they're about to jump for the first and I've taken five bets. A waste of a race.

Race 2. I take my first bet and nothing comes out the printer. It was working fine ten minutes ago and now it isn't. Restart everything. That doesn't work. It's now hammering down with rain as well. Now the keyboard has frozen up. This is a disaster. The printer is still having none of it either. Ring Tech Support again. Now it turns out the USB port the printer is in has packed up. I'm soaked to the bone running up and down the ring and right now I want to throw everything in the bin and go home. I'm trying hard to listen to Ian as he explains how I can fix things but all I can think about is being in a warm fluffy pair of pyjamas with my tea in front of me. That's only six hours away, I tell myself. Hello, the printer's working again. I take two bets on Race 2 before it's off a minute later. That's two-sevenths of the afternoon wasted.

And in truth is doesn't get any better. Business is so poor I take 110 bets all afternoon. There's nothing to report of any interest, other than it was so windy by Race 5 my trousers had dried out completely. Attendances may be up, but on days like today, my spirit isn't. I realise not every week can be Royal Ascot but days like today really make me wonder how much of a future some of the smaller rings have.

I'm home for half eight and in comfy PJ's ten minutes later. Let's see what four days of the Ebor Festival bring...

- DM

Monday Musings: An APT Comparison?

Last March, as Rachael Blackmore urged her mount in the Cheltenham Gold Cup to close on stablemate Minella Indo and Jack Kennedy up the hill after the last fence, she would have been excused for saying: “A Plus Tard” or “see you later” in the English version, writes Tony Stafford.

The comment might have been Lostintraslation for some – the much-fancied horse of that name pulled up two from home that day – but after last weekend when both latter horses won major races, the path appears set for a march to greatness for the Henry De Bromhead seven-year-old.

Lostintranslation’s easy win in Ascot’s Chanelle Pharma Chase signalled another pointer to the revival in form of the Tizzard stable – soon by all accounts to have son Joe’s name rather than dad Colin’s above the stable entrance. That effort, though, could not compare with the Irish-trained horse’s performance in running away with the Betfair Chase at Haydock Park.

Most enjoyable for British racegoers as the Irish won this coveted Haydock autumn feature for the first time, was that A Plus Tard carries the colours of Cheveley Park Stud, the principal UK-owned breeder which every year produces top-class animals. With more than 100 mares and in excess of 110 in training every year, Flat racing is the bread and butter. Jumping is the winter release.

Under the careful management of Chris Richardson the stud has fuelled on the enthusiasm for jump racing of Patricia Thompson and her late husband David. The couple won the 1992 Grand National with last-minute buy Party Politics, trained by Nick Gaselee and ridden by Carl Llewellyn, and in recent years built up a select team of high-class jumpers in Ireland.

A class apart though is A Plus Tard and although only a seven-year-old he has just entered his fourth season as a steeplechaser, and still has only 12 races over fences (five wins, five seconds and two thirds) on his record.

Much of the talk before Saturday’s race surrounded the possibility that Bristol De Mai would equal the achievement of Kauto Star who won the Betfair four times in the first decade of the millennium with one unseated preventing an unblemished five-race record.

Bristol De Mai, trained for the last eight seasons by Nigel Twiston-Davies and, like Kauto Star, an early acquisition from France after precocious efforts over hurdles, has won three. Initially he beat in turn Gold Cup winners Cue Card and Native River. He was narrowly beaten in the race in 2019 to Lostintranslation before outstaying multiple Grade 1 winner Clan Des Obeaux last November.

As with those two multiple Betfair victors, A Plus Tard started in France. Whereas Kauto Star had already raced nine times (winning three) before his dramatic step up in form to win a four-year-old Graded hurdle at Auteuil when a 36-1 shot in late May, A Plus Tard never raced at that level. His moment came on his fifth and final start (and second win) when collecting a 40k to the winner 4yo handicap early in April 2018 there.

Like Kauto Star and Bristol De Mai before him A Plus Tard switched quickly to chasing, running as early as November of that year and finishing runner-up in a field of 13 at Gowran Park under Blackmore – the first of the 11 races in which they have combined.

Remarkably, three races on and less than four months after that initial association the now five-year-old ran away with the 20-runner Close Brothers Handicap Chase. The only horse of his age in the race, he did so giving weight and a 16-length thrashing to Grade 1 hurdle winner Tower Bridge with 18 other decent performers trailing far behind.

His next run brought defeat in third over three miles at Punchestown at the end of his busiest season with De Bromhead. He was restricted to only three races the next winter, sandwiching defeats on reappearance and when a close third behind Min in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham with a first Grade 1 triumph at Leopardstown over Christmas.

And last season was another cherry-picked campaign of just three races. Again Leopardstown provided the one win, another at Grade 1 level over Christmas but this time without Rachael who partnered instead Minella Indo, who fell before the race warmed up. Darragh O’Keeffe was the lucky man to step into her shoes. Back on A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup as chronicled at the start of the piece, second place to her stable-companion and other regular partner came as their rally up the hill was a little trop tard.

There is an uncanny symmetry about aspects of the early careers of Kauto Star and A Plus Tard. Both started in France and showed precocity. Certainly in the case of Kauto Star, he burned bright for many seasons. De Bromhead’s deliberate planning for his young improving star’s career offers hope that his will also be long-lasting

The Knockeen, County Waterford, trainer has run him sparingly and, with a horse of such talent, there is no need to go searching away beyond the top prizes. I would be surprised if he turned out more than four times, with Punchestown a possible after Cheltenham, especially if he wins the Gold Cup this time. Next will likely be the normal trip to Leopardstown for a Christmas hat-trick attempt.

Minella Indo, who comes from the parallel universe of Irish jumps talent, the point-to-point field, is the De Bromhead version of Paul Nicholls’ Denman. That great chaser was a contemporary of and in terms of merit almost exact counterpart of Kauto Star and he too came from the Irish pointing field.

Kauto Star was by 29 days the senior and in terms of their careers with Nicholls earned almost twice as much as his colleague and rival, collecting £2.2 million from 19 wins in 31 chases. Denman won 14 of 24 for £1.14 million

When Kauto Star won his first Betfair Chase as a six-year-old he was rated 173. Afterwards he even once touched as high as 190 but mostly was rated in his prime in the 180’s.

Although at seven a year older at the time of his first win in the race, A Plus Tard is rated 1lb lower at 172. It is worth reminding ourselves of the ease of his win, and on faster ground than is normal for the Betfair Chase.

Bristol De Mai and Royale Pagaille kept each other company for more than two-thirds of the race on Saturday before Royale Pagaille got the edge in that private battle, with A Plus Tard always tracking them going easily. He was sent to the front three out and, pulling away all the way home, the finishing margin of 22 lengths over Royal Pagaille could have been much greater had Rachael wished.

Remembering just how impressive Royal Pagaille (rated 163) had been in the Peter Marsh Chase over the same course and distance last January, it was salutary to see a similar disrespectful beating being handed out to him. The winner must be raised for the win although Kauto Star’s rating as he won successively his first Betfair, Tingle Creek (two miles) and the first of his five King Georges brought very little reaction from the handicapper.

There was definitely a hint of Kauto Star in the speed with which A Plus Tard disposed of his 2019 Close Brothers rivals at Cheltenham, and again as he cosied up to Royal Pagaille before asserting. This was an exceptional performance but there is still that stable-companion and last season’s Cheltenham defeat to avenge before we declare him the best of the bunch.

Rachael Blackmore also had to make a painful (at least it looked that way beforehand) choice between A Plus Tard and her 2021 Cheltenham Festival winner Bob Olinger when that horse also made his seasonal return at Gowran Park, again with Darragh O’Keeffe as the beneficiary.

Bob, the deeply-impressive unchallenged winner of last season’s Ballymore Novice Hurdle at the Festival, was appearing for the first time since and enjoyed a nice school round to defeat useful yardstick Bacardys (Willie Mullins). This was the champion trainer’s first try at assessing the likely threat to his own best novice chasers later in the season. It might have dented his optimism a bit, but he usually pulls one out of the hat!

One Saturday winner who will offer some hope of a domestic success at the Festival is the Nicky Henderson-trained but Hughie Morrison nurtured and developed grey, Buzz, who followed his Cesarewitch success with another dominant effort in the Coral (to you and me Ascot) Hurdle.

While there is an intermediate distance race for the top-class chasers (the Ryanair) at the Festival, two and a half mile hurdlers are forced to drop back to the minimum for the Champion Hurdle or stretch to three miles and a bit for the Stayers. Otherwise they can wait for Aintree which does cater for them.

I think the level Aintree circuit would be perfect to utilise Buzz’s Flat-race speed and he would be meeting horses partly used up trying either of the possible Cheltenham options. But then, who can resist the lure of Cheltenham? Certainly not, it seems, James Stafford and his Thurloe Thoroughbreds syndicate.

Buzz races for the partners but, with a portion of the proceeds of their victories going to the Royal Marsden, Buzz will always have a feel-good factor going for him.

Never mind additionally that James did casual shifts for me ages ago at The Daily Telegraph and thereafter always greets me on the country’s racecourses as “Uncle Tone”. I can think of worse forms of address – indeed I’ve received a few in my time!

- TS

Grounds For Concern For Leading Superior Mile Runner

There are plenty of big handicaps on Saturday and we also have Group 1 action so it should be a great day for betting whatever your race type preference. This week I’m going to look at another one mile Group race, having previewed the Celebration Mile last week at Goodwood. This week it's the Group 3 Superior Mile (1.45pm) at Haydock.

I’ll be using Instant Expert once again for this race but it’s worth noting that there are some more lightly raced types in this race compared to last week which means there will be a few more unknowns.

The Going

The ground is going to be a hugely important factor here with underfoot conditions currently described as soft, heavy in places on Friday afternoon. It’s due to be a dry weekend so we’ll probably be look at soft ground all over.

To get as much data into Instant Expert as possible I’m going to include data from ground described anywhere between good to soft and heavy.

Superior Mile Instant Expert

A few things initially stand out here. First of all Dark Vision has failed to place in all four starts on softish ground. He’d have half a chance on his best form but it looks as though a line can be put through this runner when there is cut in the ground.

Khaloosy and Kinross both have both encountered softer ground once and they both won those races.

Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar have both had plenty of experience in these kinds of conditions and both have strong records. Stormy Atlantic has placed in six of his eight runs on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy whilst Qaysar is three from five as far as placing is concerned. The pair both have three wins when the mud is flying.

The well fancied My Oberon and Top Rank are yet to run on softer than good whilst outsider Graignes is also an unknown as far as the ground is concerned.

For those that are yet to run on softer ground we can get an insight into their suitability for testing conditions by using Instant Expert to look at sire data.

Superior Mile Sire Stats

Stormy Atlantic (Stormy Antarctic), Kingman (Kinross) and Dubawi (Khaloosy & My Oberon) all score well here and those sire stats aren’t contradicted by what we have seen from these offspring so far which is great. Comparatively the offspring of Dark Angel perform fairly poorly so Top Rank is far from guaranteed to enjoy these conditions.

Class

My Oberon has run once and placed once in class 1 races. Stormy Antarctic is by far the most experienced of these at this level with fourteen runs and six places. Dark Vision has two places from six attempts in class 1 races so he’s had plenty of tries at this sort of level without much success. Another strike against that runner.

Qaysar and Top Rank both step up in class whilst Khaloosy has failed to place in his only run in a class 1 with Kinross failing to place in two attempts in class 1 races.

Course

Not much course form on offer here but a big tick for Qaysar who has placed in two runs from three here. Both of those places were actually victories.

Distance

Top Rank has been most consistent at a mile to date, placing in all five starts, which we know were all at a lower level than this. At the other end of the scale Kinross and Qaysar have not been as consistent at this trip.

Field Size

Top Rank and Khaloosy have both placed in their sole start in fields of this sort of size. We have much more data for Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar and Dark Vision who are clearly comfortable in these mid sized fields.

A Look At The Form

We have plenty of question marks still as we only have limited data for the more lightly raced contenders.

Doubts Over Top Rank and Kinross Justified?

Top Rank and Kinross are two runners who are on the brink of having a line put through them based on the results from Instant Expert. Top Rank was beaten by a length in a handicap off a mark of 103 last time out. He’s now rated 106 which leaves him with 8lbs to find on the top rated runner here. He is lightly raced so may still improve but he’ll need to do so on ground he’s unproven on so comes with plenty of risk attached for a 6/1 chance.

Kinross has form on this sort of ground but it’s difficult to weight up as it was a wide margin maiden win. He did beat the now 97 rated Raaeb by 8 lengths (in receipt of 6lbs) so it was a smart effort on that occasion. His two runs this season have come in Group 1 company and he hasn’t been totally disgraced, especially as those runs came on faster ground. He’ll need to improve for the return to this ground though and he’s as yet unproven in ground quite this soft so backers are taking plenty of chances.

The Shortlist

There is little form that suggests Graignes is going to win this and the ground looks against Dark Vision so we are currently left with:

Khaloosy
My Oberon
Stormy Antarctic
Qaysar

First let’s look at the more exposed pair of Stormy Antarctic and Qaysar. Stormy Antarctic has had an official rating between 111 and 114 for the past 4 years which means we should know exactly how good he is. Instant Expert has shown that he is a horse with an okay record in better class races that relishes cut in the ground. On heavy ground he has form figures of 112, on soft ground he has form of 114 and that defeat came at the hands of Roaring Lion in a Group 1. Even on good to soft ground at a mile his form figures are 10222 with that blowout coming in the 2000 Guineas.

He clearly loves this ground but how good is he? He’s the horse to beat according to official ratings, although there are several possible improvers in this line up. He’s won two of his three starts at Group 3 level over a mile. His defeat came earlier this year at the hands of Century Dream. He carried a Group 2 penalty that day (which he doesn’t have to shoulder here) and that was his first start in almost 12 months so 4th was a decent enough effort. At Group 2 level at this trip he has finished 2nd and 3rd and the ground wasn’t quite as soft as he’d like on either occasion. He’s clearly good enough to win this sort of race and will be getting close to ideal conditions here.

Unlike Stormy Antarctic, Qaysar is completely unproven at this level. He’s improved each season though and is rated just 3lbs shy of Stormy Antarctic courtesy of winning a handicap over course and distance on testing ground by 4.25 length off a mark of 105. He’s failed to reproduce that form in two runs since but one of those runs was in a small field conditions race on fast ground and the other was in a York handicap off a mark of 111 and he was well enough beaten on his previous York run off a much lower mark. He’s probably not going to prove much better than his current rating but his best career run came here under similar conditions and a reproduction of that might see him reach the places.

Khaloosy and Oberon actually met last time in a Group 3 at Goodwood and My Oberon was 2.5 lengths in front of Khaloosy. My Oberon was also badly hampered by the winner so was value for further. Whilst My Oberon looked at home on the ground that day Khaloosy looked all at sea with the combination of fast ground and unconventional track clearly against him. Khaloosy is much better judged on his previous effort at Royal Ascot where he won the Britannia Handicap easily. That race has worked out well and beating Finest Sound (now rated 94) giving him 7lbs and a comfortable looking 4.5 length beating means he probably ran to a rating even higher than his current mark of 111 that day.

My Oberon has no soft ground form and although he’s bred to handle it, he’s previously been described by his trainer as ‘a fast ground horse’ so there have to be some reservations. Those same reservations don’t hang over Khaloosy whose sole run in testing conditions was by far his best.

Pace

We all know how important pace can be, especially in these smaller field races that can be run at a crawl on occasions. Here is the pace map for this race based on their last four runs:

Superior Mile Pace Map

As you can see, there doesn’t appear to be much pace in this contest so those that are able to sit handily could be advantaged as could be those who have proven themselves to be a bit ‘speedier’. Stormy Antarctic stays further than this so he’d ideally want a strong test and many of Qaysar’s best efforts have come when held up, although he is tactically versatile. My Oberon has a nice race style for this sort of set up but the question mark over the ground remains. Khaloosy was held up at Ascot but those were the right tactics to employ on the day and he’s been ridden much more prominently in his other runs.

Verdict

Assuming Khaloosy isn’t just much better at Ascot, he deserves another chance here and after just 4 career starts he should be able to improve past the extremely solid yard stick that is Stormy Antarctic. Meanwhile Qaysar isn’t a terrible bet for a place and could fill 3rd spot behind the other pair if things go to plan.

Weekend Racing Preview: Scorching Pace Likely In 7f Handicap

It might not be a vintage day of racing on Saturday but there are plenty of competitive handicaps to get stuck into. One of the more interesting races of the day, which unfortunately won’t be on terrestrial television, is the 7f handicap at Haydock being run at 3.50pm.

Haydock is well known for receiving plenty of rainfall so there is fairly limited data available for handicaps of this field size run on the forecast good to firm ground. When there is limited data the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) is particularly useful. There isn’t a whole lot in it but it seems preferable to be drawn low or high rather than in the middle over 7f on fast ground at Haydock. Just 15.63% of placed runners have come from the middle third of the draw.

As far as pace advantage over this course and distance is concerned, on fast ground we are again dealing with slightly limited data but it seems anywhere but prominent is ideal for win purposes. Prominent racers have yielded zero winners from 24 runs in qualifying races. The best place to be positioned could be mid division with a level stakes profit of £3.50 for those runners. It’s worth bearing in mind though that win ratios can be misleading with limited data and when looking at the place data for the same qualifying races it’s actually very even and slightly favours those ridden prominently.

Haydock 7f Good to Firm Pace Stats

One of the best features of Geegeez Gold is the ability to compare both pace and draw simultaneously. The draw pace heat map (using PRB data) for races of these conditions again backs up the assumption that middle draws are less favourable and that a high draw might be more favourable than low unless you are likely to be held up in the rear, in which case low is better than high.

Haydock draw heat map

With no strong data regarding pace advantage it’s best to concentrate on how each individual race is likely to be run and that’s what makes this race more interesting than many on Saturday.

Haydock 7f pace map

With three possible front runners here we are likely to see contested speed and that should swing things in favour of those held up in mid division or the rear. That leaves the entirety of the remaining field with no recognised prominent racers. As previously discussed those drawn in the middle could be seen at a disadvantage which would be bad news for Irreverent, Young Fire, Dutch Decoy and Arbalet, who are drawn 5,6,7 and 8 respectively.

Indian Creak form

Indian Creak's run at Sandown has produced a 0% subsequent win ratio and just a 25% place ratio.

Of those drawn lower, War Glory is drawn lowest of all but has only won once in 30 attempts on turf and probably needs a stiffer test. Indian Creak is drawn in stall 2 but has been well enough beaten in both starts this season and whilst his 7th in a 7f handicap last month at Sandown might look okay form on first inspection, the Geegeez future form display tells us that 11 runners have come out of that race and all been beaten since. Cold Stare completes the low drawn runner list who should be ridden with patience but all his form is on soft ground.

So what about those drawn higher? The remaining runners are Triggered (drawn 9) and Northernpowerhouse (drawn 10). Triggered is likely to be held up in the rear and based on the data we have he would probably have been better off with a low draw assuming the same tactics are used again. He hasn’t been seen to best effect this season and is stepping up to 7f for the first time. He’ll need to improve for the trip to figure but on the way he runs that’s very possible.

Northernpowerhouse seems to have plenty in his favour with a high draw and a fast pace forecast. He is generally held up in mid division rather than right at the rear of the field so has an ideal draw on that basis. He seemed to improve over the winter on the all weather and was clearly not expected to transfer that improvement to turf when sent off a relatively unconsidered 22/1, despite being a last time out winner, at Redcar in June. He proved those odds wrong though with a narrow win. That wasn’t the strongest of contests in hindsight but many of his races have worked out well, particularly his most recent all weather win where he beat five runners who would win on one of their next two starts.

Last time out Northernpowerhouse was beaten 8.5 lengths but he was badly squeezed up on that occasion and whilst he wasn’t going well enough to win that day, he may well have reached the placings. The faster ground here may also be in his favour.