Posts

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

1.30 Ayr : Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 7/4 (Close up on inside, pushed along after 4 out, lost place next, soon weakened, tailed off)

Thurssday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Erick Le Rouge @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f on Good To Soft ground worth £15640 to the winner... 

Why?

The full(er) story will appear here later...

 ...but until it does, we're placing... a 1pt win bet on Erick Le Rouge @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.45 Kempton : Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Soon towards rear, headway and switched right over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on, held by winner, beaten by half a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner...  

Why?

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has been rejuvenated by a switch of yard (to Stuart Edmonds) and a switch of code (chasing to hurdles) 2 runs ago, winning both times and therefore sending him here on a fairly quick-fire hat-trick bid.

He won a Class 5 over 3m at Uttoxeter 23 days ago and then stepped up in class and trip to win here over course and distance (C4, 3m1f) 11 days later / 12 days ago. So neither track nor trip should be his undoing here and with today's jockey, Ciaran Gethings having been on board for those last two runs/wins, he'll know how he's going to be ridden!

The horse is now...

  • 3/11 in September/October (2/3 over hurdles)
  • 3/8 at 8-15 days since last run (2 wins, 1 place from 3 over hurdles)
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 6 hee at Huntingdon (1/2 hrds)
  • 2/5 at 3m/3m1f (2/2 hrds)
  • 2/2 for Stuart Edmonds (both over hurdles)
  • 2/2 under Ciaran Gethings (both over hurdles)
  • and 1 from 1 over C&D (from LTO)

Stuart Edmonds only had his first runner on 29th January 2015 (my wife's 44th birthday for those wanting an irrelevant stat) and although it took him 3 months and 20 races to land his first winner, backing all his runners has proved to be a profitable venture. To date he is 57 from 367 (15.5% SR) for 9.33pts (+2.54% ROI) and if we just focus on his NH runners for relevance today, those are 55/336 (16.4% SR) for 17.72pts (+5.27% ROI), including...

  • at 11-45 days since last run : 41/210 (19.5%) for 57pts (+27.1%)
  • on Good ground : 24/138 (17.4%) for 52.2pts (+37.8%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m3f : 13/92 (14.1%) for 27.3pts (+29.7%)
  • 7 yr olds are 11/56 (19.6%) for 55.1pts (+98.3%)
  • LTO winners are 18/51 (35.3%) for 31pts (+60.9%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 6/22 (27.3%) for 5.93pts (+26.9%)

More generally (and essentially less trainer-centric), in UK handicap hurdle races since the start of 2013, horses who won over C&D LTO are 149/653 (22.8% SR) for 100.1pts profit at an ROI of 15.3%, which on its own is a good angel, but possibly throws up too many bets for some of you, so to reduce the number of transactions, we could consider...

  • males at 128/536 (23.9%) for 109.9pts (+20.5%)
  • within 25 of that LTO C&D run/win : 94/382 (24.6%) for 80.3pts (+21%)
  • at the same class as LTO : 82/338 (24.3%) for 80.3pts (+23.8%)
  • on Good ground, its 67/265 (25.3%) for 87.9pts (+33.2%)
  • in October/November : 21/86 (24.4%) for 29.1pts (+33.8%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 3/15 (20%) for 3.06pts (+20.4%)

If you wanted a composite angle for about a quarter of the original dataset, a logical approach could be males running at the same class as an LTO win in the past 25 days, yielding 44 winners from 165 (26.7% SR) and 62.6pts profit at an ROI of 37.9%.

And finally, it's worth (IMO anyway!) noting that in UK Class 4 handicap hurdles over 2m6f to 3m2f, males who won a hcp hrd LTO are 96/436 (22% SR) for 46.7pts (+10.7% ROI) with 7 yr olds winning 21 of 75 (28%) for 34.1pts (+45.4%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by 10Bet, Bet365, Betfair, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening and which was still widely available at 9.00am today.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 10/3 BOG WON at 11/4 (Made all, ran on strongly, clear over 1f out, ran on strongly, unchallenged winning by 2.75 lengths) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground, worth £6498 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is 3 from 5 over fences in the past 6 months, including 3 wins from 4 at this grade. far from disgraced in finishing third last time out 33 days ago in a better (C3) contest than this one, he is now sent on a 500-mile round trip to run here, down in both class and weight (-1lb from LTO). The distance might or might not be relevant, as there's arguably an easier/shorter journey from Somerset to racing at Fontwell tomorrow.

Trainer Jeremy Scott is one worth keeping onside with his handicap chasers, who have been profitable to follow for each of the last five years, clocking up 53 winners from 287 (18.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 107.8pts at a healthy ROI of 37.6%. With today's contest/conditions in mind, let's look at just ten ways Jeremy has found those 53 profitable winners...

  1. Males are 52/272 (19.1%) for 117.1pts (+43.1%)
  2. 5 to 9 yr olds are 39/183 (21.3%) for 123.4pts (+67.4%)
  3. Those last seen 21-75 days earlier are 36/173 (20.8%) for 87.1pts (+50.3%)
  4. Those sent off at odds of 15/8 to 6/1 are 35/124 (28.2%) for 60.4pts (+48.7%)
  5. Those racing at Class 4 are 34/155 (21.9%) for 94.2pts (+60.8%)
  6. Those racing on officially Good ground are 28/144 (19.4%) for 47.9pts (+33.2%)
  7. Those racing in fields of 5 to 7 runners are 26/109 (23.9%) for 95.8pts (+87.8%)
  8. Those ridden by Matt Griffiths are 18/101 (17.8%) for 21.4pts (+21.2%)
  9. Those dropping down a class are 14/43 (32.6%) for 64.1pts (+149.2%)
  10. And those making a round trip of 450 miles or more are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.7pts (+99%) - yard clearly has no qualms about travelling.

All the above are, of course, applicable today, but if you wanted to reduce the number of bets made and also maybe combine some of the more winner-finding angles, you could try...5-9 yr old males sent off at 15/8 to 6/1 some 21 to 75 days after their last run : this simple and easy to follow angle has been worth 16 winners from 55 witht he 29.1% strike rate yielding 26.7pts profit at an ROI of 48.6%...

...and would highlight... a 1pt win bet on Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

3.05 Redcar : Northandsouth @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (Self Cert : Bruised Foot)

I'm a bit late tonight after spending the afternoon with my nan who is 96 today, but our second go at starting the new week is via Tuesday's...

7.40 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Not A Role Model @ 5/2 BOG non-runner at 8.40am! (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4, 2m4f Handicap Chase  (5yo+) on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner... 

Why?

N/A, sadly.

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Not A Role Model @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.35pm on Monday, althought those with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

It never rains but…

If you are on a floodplain you can expect to be flooded. Huntingdon racecourse is on a floodplain, and last weekend it was flooded, depriving the course of its Family Fun day fixture and a crowd likely to be upwards of 4,000 people. I had driven past the track on Tuesday, at which time it was all under water, and Noah could have moored his ark right by the grandstand.

This morning I went to meet Sam Butler Spelzini, Head Groundsman, to find out what he and his team would have to do to have the course ready for the next meeting on 24 April. I was astounded when I arrived to see plenty of green grass, as almost all the water had drained away as quickly as it had appeared. Sam went through the timeline of recent days that led up to the abandonment of Monday's meeting before talking through the remedial work necessary to repair the damage to the course.

The first indication that rain was on its way came in a flood alert for Kings Lynn and the fens at around 1030 on Friday night (30 March). Early the following morning it arrived, and 13 mm over the course of the day was enough so that, in the words of the old Sunday School chorus, "The rains came down and the floods came up." You could almost see the water rolling across the track. Indeed, when there was torrential rain at the conclusion of a previous meeting Sam had to give a real hurry up to the burger vans to move or risk being marooned.

One of the contributory factors to flooding is the network of culverts and streams that surround the course. They are something of a double edged sword, for whilst they help enormously with quick drainage, when there is more water in them than they can cope with, the only way is up. Three of them converge at one point, so it's like three lanes of motorway traffic merging into one, with neither the cars nor the water able to continue at their original speed. Result - blockage followed by overspill.

Huntingdon is regularly described as a flat track, and so it is, though not totally. Most times when there is waterlogging, around half the circuit will be submerged, roughly from the chute at the end of the home straight to the end of the back straight, following the line of a brook running diagonally across the infield. Last weekend you could add to that most of the home straight, the area of picnic tables in front of the stands, and the whole area behind the stands, including the paddock. All of this area was in a good foot of water, and in parts of the course it was more than two feet deep.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Huntingdon stable block

A final area that became flooded was the stable block. This has room for 100 horses, and by Friday evening all units were kitted out with bedding ready for Monday's meeting. The first job on Saturday morning was to lift as much of this bedding as possible; clearly if it became waterlogged it would just have to be thrown way. It was the flood water reaching this far that prompted one of the groundstaff team to remark that he had never seen conditions so bad in his 12 years working there.

There was nothing the team could do until the water receded, which it began to do on Tuesday. The further rain forecast for that day thankfully didn't materialise. This morning almost all the water had drained away they and the team was out on the track to begin the clear up. The first job is hand raking through the turf to collect all the debris that's been left behind. Mostly this is reeds and straw, but amongst the other items to have been deposited are some pieces of plastic running rail and an old railway sleeper.

Once that job is done, the task of getting the turf back into racing condition can begin. There are two activities here. First Sam will verti-drain the course to help further with the drainage, and also to aerate the soil. Think putting your garden fork in the ground and wiggling it back and forth. Thankfully Sam's machine fits on the back of a tractor.

The clean up begins

I wondered what damage the soaking might have done to the fences and hurdles, and was a little surprised to find they should all be fine. Of course the core of the fences is hard wood, and the birch for the hurdles is another natural substance. The most vulnerable part of the obstacles is the kick board on the take off side of the fences.

The flooding has dislodged many of the divots brought up from racing during the season. Replacing these with a mix of topsoil, compost and seed, followed by a levelling of the surface will bring the racetrack up to fitness, but not the public or stable areas.

Rightly, the British Horseracing Authority has rigorous requirements for the welfare of horses, and there's work to be done in the stable block following the flood to ensure those standards are met. In total, 95 of the stable units were under a foot or so of water. Now they are clear of any bedding that couldn't be removed earlier. Next they will all be pressure hosed down and disinfected, before another wash down. Finally, after time to dry out, they can be kitted out with fresh bedding ready for he next equine visitors.

On Tuesday afternoon the BHA offered an extra fixture to Huntingdon, to take place this coming Saturday. After deliberation, the course turned down the opportunity, feeling they would not be quite ready. It's taking place at Fakenham instead. If it were scheduled for Sunday, Sam reckons they might have gone for it, and next Monday they would jump at the chance.

What a busy few days, all the more so when you realise that in the week before a meeting on 30 March last year the course was dry and the team were watering the track. Oh, the vagaries of the British weather.

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.50 Bangor : Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Made most until after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

The final week of the month kicks off with Monday's...

3.05 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 2m4f Novices Limited Handicap Chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £5,198 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 1U1 in his three efforts over fences so far, winning at trips of 2m2f and 2m4.5f, both at this Class 4 grade and he certainly likes some cut in the ground.

His trainer, Lawney Hill, has done well with her handicap chasers of late, winning 11 of 44 (25% SR) since the start of 2016 and these 44 (all male!) have returned level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+40% ROI) to those backing them blindly, including...

  • those last seen in the previous 30 days are 9/26 (34.6%) for 21.2pts (+81.5%)
  • those priced at 5/2 to 17/2 are 9/21 (42.9%) for 35.1pts (+167.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips of 2m0.5f to 2m4.5f : 10/16 (62.5%) for 36.7pts (+229.3%)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.2pts (+265.5%)
  • from February to April inclusive : 5/10 (50%) for 15.22pts (+152.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.1pts (+145.4%)

In addition to the 6 wins from 11 noted above, jockey Aidan Coleman's own record is good here at this venue, winning 29 of 152 (19.1% SR) jumps races since the start of 2011.

And more generally, in UK Class 3/4 handicap chases since the start of 2013, males who won a handicap chase LTO 4 to 20 days earlier and now run over a trip shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word Good in the official description at either the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades from LTO are 198/754 (26.3% SR) for profits of 115.9pts at an ROI of 15.4%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & SkyBet at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.50 Bangor : Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Made most until after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

The final week of the month kicks off with Monday's...

3.05 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 2m4f Novices Limited Handicap Chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £5,198 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 1U1 in his three efforts over fences so far, winning at trips of 2m2f and 2m4.5f, both at this Class 4 grade and he certainly likes some cut in the ground.

His trainer, Lawney Hill, has done well with her handicap chasers of late, winning 11 of 44 (25% SR) since the start of 2016 and these 44 (all male!) have returned level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+40% ROI) to those backing them blindly, including...

  • those last seen in the previous 30 days are 9/26 (34.6%) for 21.2pts (+81.5%)
  • those priced at 5/2 to 17/2 are 9/21 (42.9%) for 35.1pts (+167.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips of 2m0.5f to 2m4.5f : 10/16 (62.5%) for 36.7pts (+229.3%)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.2pts (+265.5%)
  • from February to April inclusive : 5/10 (50%) for 15.22pts (+152.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.1pts (+145.4%)

In addition to the 6 wins from 11 noted above, jockey Aidan Coleman's own record is good here at this venue, winning 29 of 152 (19.1% SR) jumps races since the start of 2011.

And more generally, in UK Class 3/4 handicap chases since the start of 2013, males who won a handicap chase LTO 4 to 20 days earlier and now run over a trip shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word Good in the official description at either the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades from LTO are 198/754 (26.3% SR) for profits of 115.9pts at an ROI of 15.4%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & SkyBet at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2018

Thursday's Result :

1.30 Catterick : Workbench @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 13/2 Towards rear, effort before 3 out, never dangerous....

Next up is Friday's...

2.30 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fly Home Harry @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m7.5f on Soft ground worth £4,614 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is 4 from 12 over fences so far, including...

  • 4 wins and 2 places from 9 in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 3 wins and a place from 5 at 3 miles
  • 3 wins from 4 when rested for at least 2 weeks, but less than 8.
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 since moving to Charlie Longsdon's yard
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 on soft ground
  • 1 from 2 under today's jockey Paul O'Brien

And over the last two years, Charlie Longsdon's handicap chasers are 49 from 335 (14.6% SR) for 70.6pts (+21.1% ROI), from which...

  • males : 45/298 (15.1%) for 63.9pts (+21.5%)
  • 21-75 days since last run : 35/206 (16%) for 114pts (+55.3%)
  • at 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f : 16/97 (16.5%) for 63.6pts (+65.6%)
  • 9 yr olds are 8/43 (18.6%) for 11.2pts (+26%)
  • ridden by Paul O'Brien : 5/17 (29.4%) for 19.9pts (+116.8%)
  • when the jockey claimed 5lbs : 4/17 (23.5%) for 7.81pts (+45.9%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 3/9 (38.3%) for 7.92pts (+88%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fly Home Harry @ 5/1 BOG which was on offer with 10Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2017

Monday's Result :

3.50 Carlisle : Heir of Excitement @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/2 Led, edged right to grab rail after cutaway 2f out, soon baulked, headed narrowly inside final furlong, led again 75 yards out, held on by a neck.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.05 Huntingdon...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Monty3/1 BOG

Why?

Hmmmm, where should I start? As many of our long-standing members will know, SotD (and the Stat Picks spin-off service) is derived from a combination of the Geegeez toolbox, my own bank of saved microsystems and me actually fancying the horse to win. Sometimes there's one really strong stat for me to hang my hat on and sometimes you keep seeing a name crop up that it's hard to ignore. That's the case here.

Midnight Monty appeals for several reasons, so in the interests of brevity, I'll attempt a concise overview of some of those reasons, starting with the horse's recent background, as he has 2 wins from his last 6 outings (127PP1) and that last run/win was by almost 4 lengths 25 days ago here over course and distance under today's jockey, bringing us to our first port call...

...the Geegeez Shortlist... which pointed me in the direction of his form under similar conditions to today ie 2 from 4 over hurdles, 2 from 3 in fields of 8-11 runners (both wins came in 9-runner races like today's) and he's 2 from 2 at Class 4.

...then his recent form... 7PP1 and the fact that Class 3 to 6 handicap hurdlers priced at 2/1 to 10/1 who were winners LTO 11 to 30 days ago, having been unplaced in their three previous runs then won again on 156 of 853 (18.3% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 128.3pts at an ROI of 15% since 2008.

...and as for LTO C&D winners... well, since the start of 2012, handicap hurdlers who won LTO over the same course and distance 11 to 60 days earlier doubled up 129 times from 603 attempts (21.4% SR) for profits of 122.8pts (+20.4% ROI)

...and then the trainer... Tom Lacey is of interest, as his hurdlers are 23/93 (24.7% SR) for 115.3pts (+124% ROI) over the last 18 months, of which...

  • handicap hurdlers are 13/50 (26%) for 45.2pts (+90.4%)
  • LTO winners are 6/20 (30%) for 4.55pts (+22.8%)
  • and LTO handicap winners are 5/16 (31.25%) for 7pts (+43.8%)

...and finally (!) the sire... you've probably guessed from his name that he's from my favourite sire, Midnight Legend. Don't worry, I'm not going to bang on about the myriad of profitable Midnight Legend angles, but I will just point you towards the fact that since 2008, his Class 3/4 handicap hurdlers tackling 2m5f to 3m2f are 55/308 (17.9% SR) for 331pts (+107.5% ROI) profit, from which...

  • those racing on good ground are 21/116 (18.1%) for 119.2pts (+102.8%)
  • whilst here at Huntingdon, they're 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 31.3pts (+447%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Midnight Monty3/1 BOG which was available with both Coral and Ladbrokes at 7.20pm on Monday with plenty of acceptable 11/4 BOG elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 17th April 2017

Saturday's Result

5.25 Kempton : Higher Power @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 Tracked leaders, ridden to challenge over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, kept on well, never reached winner

Easter Monday's pick goes in the...

2.20 Huntingdon

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hint of Grey @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A 4 yr old filly seeking a hat trick of hurdles wins after back to back successes over 2m 0.5f at Fakenham 31 days ago and then over 2m1f at Sedgefield 12 days later, both under today's jockey, Conor Shoemark.

She's trained by Don Cantillon, whose handicappers are 44/212 (20.75% SR) for 84.9pts (+40% ROI) since 2008, of which his hurdlers are 11/38 (29%) for 76.7pts (+201.8%).

And since 2014, Don's handicap hurdlers are 8 from 27 (29.6% SR) for 60.8pts (+225.3%), including...

  • those competing at Classes 4/5 : 7/20 (35%) for 65.17pts (+325.85%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days ago : 7/16 (43.75%) for 63.21pts (+395.1%)
  • and those competing at Classes 4/5 who were last seen 6-20 days ago : 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.87pts (+98.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Hint of Grey at 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Easter Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 17th April 2017

Saturday's Result

5.25 Kempton : Higher Power @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 Tracked leaders, ridden to challenge over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, kept on well, never reached winner

Easter Monday's pick goes in the...

2.20 Huntingdon

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hint of Grey @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A 4 yr old filly seeking a hat trick of hurdles wins after back to back successes over 2m 0.5f at Fakenham 31 days ago and then over 2m1f at Sedgefield 12 days later, both under today's jockey, Conor Shoemark.

She's trained by Don Cantillon, whose handicappers are 44/212 (20.75% SR) for 84.9pts (+40% ROI) since 2008, of which his hurdlers are 11/38 (29%) for 76.7pts (+201.8%).

And since 2014, Don's handicap hurdlers are 8 from 27 (29.6% SR) for 60.8pts (+225.3%), including...

  • those competing at Classes 4/5 : 7/20 (35%) for 65.17pts (+325.85%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days ago : 7/16 (43.75%) for 63.21pts (+395.1%)
  • and those competing at Classes 4/5 who were last seen 6-20 days ago : 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.87pts (+98.4%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hint of Grey at 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Easter Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 8th November 2016

Monday's Result :

1.30 Kempton : Little Pop @ 3/1 BOG - UR at 11/4 (Led 1st, remained prominent, mistake and unseated rider 6th)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.45 Huntingdon

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Copperfacejack @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2008, trainer Paul Webber's Class 2to 5 chasers, aged 5 to 9 yrs old are 58/298 (19.5% SR) for 66.5pts (+22.3% ROI) profit when sent off at odds no greater than 12/1, of which...

  • those priced in the 5/2 to 12/1 region are 44/262 (16.8%) for 74.6pts (+28.5%)
  • those racing on Good, Gd to Soft or Soft ground are 48/228 (21.1%) for 870.6pts (+38.4)
  • those racing in the August to December period are 32/144 (22.2%) for 76.9pts (+53.4%)

AND those fulfilling all three of the above criteria are 20/99 (20.2% SR) for 85pts profit at an ROI of 85.9%.

Copperfacejack, of course, fits the bill perfectly and on top of that, this 6 yr old gelding is a son of Robin des Pres, whose offspring are 29/220 (13.2% SR) for 115.6pts (+52.5% ROI) in NH handicaps since the start of 2015, including...

  • 29/212 (13.7%) for 123.6pts (+58.3%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 25/170 (14.7%) for 144.3pts (+84.9%) over trips of 2m3f to 3m2f
  • 15/108 (13.9%) for 42.9pts (+39.7%) at Classes 3 & 4
  • 13/79 (16.5%) for 53.5pts (+67.7%) from chasers

AND those, like Copperfacejack, who tick all four of the above boxes are 6/33 (18.2% SR) for 56pts (+169.7% ROI)

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Copperfacejack at 7/2 BOG, from my preferred Bet365, although Betfred, Coral, Hills and Totesport were all matching that price at 6.15pm on Monday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2016

Monday's Result :

3.45 Brighton: Brave Archibald @ 10/ E/W BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Short of room start, in touch towards rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway inside final furlong, driven and stayed on to go 2nd final strides). On a tough day stats-wise, I was very pleased to emerge with a small profit of half a point to keep the ball rolling.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.00 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG.

Why?

Over the last two years, this 9 yr old gelding has proved to be remarkably consistent, with 11 top 3 finishes from 13 efforts and was a winner by a length and a quarter in a 3m contest last time out at Perth almost four weeks ago.

He's trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose handicap hurdlers are 21/112 (18.75% SR) for 39pts (+34.8% ROI) profit when turned back out within 30 days of a win last time out. And of more pertinence today, we can filter those 112 runners down as follows...

  • males are 19/94 (20.2% SR) for 43.2pts (+46% ROI)
  • on ground deemed good, good to soft or soft : 18/85 (21.2% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 8/1 : 16/76 (21.1% SR) for 21.9pts (+28.9% ROI)
  • those raised 2 to 7lbs for that LTO win are 14/65 (21.5% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
  • at trips of 2m5f and beyond : 12/57 (21.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+90.8% ROI)
  • racing 26 to 30 days after that LTO win : 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 38.6pts (+275.9% ROI)

I should also touch on the fact that Nigel's son Sam will be in the saddle and Sam's record on his dad's Class 4 male hurdlers currently stands at 63 winners from 350 (18% SR) for decent level stakes profits of some 124.8pts (+35.7% ROI), with those horses running beyond 3m winning 10 of 43 (23.3% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% ROI).

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365 or BetVictor, who were the standout BOG bookies at 6.30pm, whilst Betfred, Ladbrokes and Totesport were all quoting the same odds, but don't/won't offer BOG until the day of the race. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 25th February 2016

On a poor day's racing yesterday, I felt I'd identified two very winnable races at Lingfield, despite a lack of both depth and quality. And I was right in that respect, but the day turned into another of those frustrating encounters that have typified recent times for DD.

I liked Flighty Filia in the 3.20 race for a number of reasons and with the well-backed (5/6 from an already too short 13/8) favourite failing to see the race out successfully, she took full advantage late on getting up by half a length. We were on at 11/2, so we'd a great stake for race 2...

...where the tables were turned and our runner, long-time leader Secret Sinner was herself overhauled in the final furlong on her way to a 1.75 length defeat that denied us a juicy 38/1 payout that would have put a totally different complexion on the numbers below.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Flighty Filia : WON at 5/1 (adv 11/2)
Ruler of the Nile : 4th at 5/6 (adv 13/8)
----------------------------------------------------
Secret Sinner : 2nd at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Faster Company : 6th at 6/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
812 winning selections from 2934 = 27.68%
250 winning bets in 759 days = 32.94%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1517.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +65.82pts (+4.34% ROI)

And to Thursday's Selections...

2.55 Sedgefield :

11 go to post here and I think it's a 3-horse encounter in reality and assuming I don't discard the wrong one, we should be fine! And although Rosquero was a winner last time out three weeks ago, he's the one I'm omitting. Age isn't on his side, he rarely puts two decent runs together, he's up in weight and in all fairness, everytthing went his way last time out. (guaranteed to win now!)

So, that takes us to a pair of more consistent sorts, starting with the 7/2 BOG Oscar Oscar, who made ther frame in four of his last five hurdle races, before a switch to fences for the first time three weeks ago. He was by no means disgraced in going down by 4 lengths in third place over a trip far too short for him (very one paced in the final flourishes). The extra half mile should suit him more today, I'd have thought.

The runner-up that day (2 lengths ahead) was Discoverie (also 7/2 BOG), who also seemed to need further, but still impressed on what was also his own chasing debut. There wasn't too much between the pair I've selected and that Discoverie is a couple of pounds worse off, I can see them being closely matched again today. It should also be added that they were both beaten by a proven reliable chaser last time out and I'd expect both to come on for the run today.

3.55 Huntingdon :

Vazaro Delafayette was an expensive purchase as an ex-Pointer and showed some promise  as chaser when tackling the larger obstacles for the first time last time out. He was running after a break of 441 days when finishing third here a fortnight ago. A drop in trip and the benefit of having had a run should stand this potential improver in good stead and with the Pipe / Scudamore combination having a 31% strike rate in handicaps here, a bet at 9/4 BOG could well pay dividends today.

That's assuming he gets the better of the 5/2 BOG Hollow Blue Sky, who has made the frame in both chase starts at this venue (winning once), relisghes the soft ground and is back at a trip more suitable for him today. Just a pound higher than his last win, but racing 2 grades lower than that success, he really has to be feared/respected here today. he won this race in 2014 and showed signs of a return to form when a decent second at Doncaster LTO four weeks ago. Only 4 of his 11 rivals have reappeared since, but they have three wins and a place from those four starts!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Oscar Oscar / Vazaro Delafayette @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Oscar Oscar / Hollow Blue Sky @ 13.63 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Discoverie / Vazaro Delafayette @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Racebets)
Discoverie / Hollow Blue Sky @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.10 Kempton : Biff Johnson @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a length)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.20 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comragh @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 6yr old mare makes both her yard and handicap debut today, having last been seen 106 days ago winning by 8 lengths at Ayr, where she was the main beneficiary of a fall by the leader at the last hurdle. She has since switched yards and now runs for Jeremy Scott, who from a fairly small sample size, tends to do well here at Huntingdon.

Since the start of 2011, his 22 runners here have produced 7 winners (31.8% SR) and a healthy 7.13pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits. Once has to assume it's the 400+ mile round trip from Somerset that keeps him away, because closer inspection shows that of those 22 runners he has sent here...

  • today's jockey Nick Scholfield has ridden 6 winners from 20 (30% SR) for 6.26pts (+31.3% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 1.65pts (+11.8% ROI), these tend to get backed!
  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 4.91pts (+37.8% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 7.33pts (+104.7% ROI)
  • females are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 6.79pts (+113.1% ROI)
  • and in female only races, they are 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 2.04pts (+68% ROI)

Nick Scholfield / Jeremy Scott/ Female Hurdlers / 5-1 and shorter are 4 from 4 for 8.8pts (+220% ROI) of which 6 yr olds are 3 from 3 for 8.46pts (+282.2% ROI).

Comrah makes her handicap bow today and last year was a good one for Jermey Scott's handicap debutants with 4 winners from 10 for profits of 18.67pts (+186.7% ROI), of which class 4 runners were 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+227.5% ROI), females were 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 19.1pts (+318.1% ROI) and Nick Scholfield rode 2 winners from 3 (66.7% SR) for 6.33pts (+211% ROI)

None of the 10 were priced between 11/2 and 12/1, they fell either side of that gap, but those at 5/1 or shorter won 3 from 3 for 9.47pts (+315.7% ROI)

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Comragh at 9/2 BOG, a price currently (8.255pm) available with more than half a dozen different firms, so to find your preferred bookie, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...