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Stat of the Day, 7th February 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

1.30 Ayr : Magic of Milan @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 7/4 (Close up on inside, pushed along after 4 out, lost place next, soon weakened, tailed off)

Thurssday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Erick Le Rouge @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f on Good To Soft ground worth £15640 to the winner... 

Why?

The full(er) story will appear here later...

 ...but until it does, we're placing... a 1pt win bet on Erick Le Rouge @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.45 Kempton : Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Soon towards rear, headway and switched right over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on, held by winner, beaten by half a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner...  

Why?

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has been rejuvenated by a switch of yard (to Stuart Edmonds) and a switch of code (chasing to hurdles) 2 runs ago, winning both times and therefore sending him here on a fairly quick-fire hat-trick bid.

He won a Class 5 over 3m at Uttoxeter 23 days ago and then stepped up in class and trip to win here over course and distance (C4, 3m1f) 11 days later / 12 days ago. So neither track nor trip should be his undoing here and with today's jockey, Ciaran Gethings having been on board for those last two runs/wins, he'll know how he's going to be ridden!

The horse is now...

  • 3/11 in September/October (2/3 over hurdles)
  • 3/8 at 8-15 days since last run (2 wins, 1 place from 3 over hurdles)
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 6 hee at Huntingdon (1/2 hrds)
  • 2/5 at 3m/3m1f (2/2 hrds)
  • 2/2 for Stuart Edmonds (both over hurdles)
  • 2/2 under Ciaran Gethings (both over hurdles)
  • and 1 from 1 over C&D (from LTO)

Stuart Edmonds only had his first runner on 29th January 2015 (my wife's 44th birthday for those wanting an irrelevant stat) and although it took him 3 months and 20 races to land his first winner, backing all his runners has proved to be a profitable venture. To date he is 57 from 367 (15.5% SR) for 9.33pts (+2.54% ROI) and if we just focus on his NH runners for relevance today, those are 55/336 (16.4% SR) for 17.72pts (+5.27% ROI), including...

  • at 11-45 days since last run : 41/210 (19.5%) for 57pts (+27.1%)
  • on Good ground : 24/138 (17.4%) for 52.2pts (+37.8%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m3f : 13/92 (14.1%) for 27.3pts (+29.7%)
  • 7 yr olds are 11/56 (19.6%) for 55.1pts (+98.3%)
  • LTO winners are 18/51 (35.3%) for 31pts (+60.9%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 6/22 (27.3%) for 5.93pts (+26.9%)

More generally (and essentially less trainer-centric), in UK handicap hurdle races since the start of 2013, horses who won over C&D LTO are 149/653 (22.8% SR) for 100.1pts profit at an ROI of 15.3%, which on its own is a good angel, but possibly throws up too many bets for some of you, so to reduce the number of transactions, we could consider...

  • males at 128/536 (23.9%) for 109.9pts (+20.5%)
  • within 25 of that LTO C&D run/win : 94/382 (24.6%) for 80.3pts (+21%)
  • at the same class as LTO : 82/338 (24.3%) for 80.3pts (+23.8%)
  • on Good ground, its 67/265 (25.3%) for 87.9pts (+33.2%)
  • in October/November : 21/86 (24.4%) for 29.1pts (+33.8%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 3/15 (20%) for 3.06pts (+20.4%)

If you wanted a composite angle for about a quarter of the original dataset, a logical approach could be males running at the same class as an LTO win in the past 25 days, yielding 44 winners from 165 (26.7% SR) and 62.6pts profit at an ROI of 37.9%.

And finally, it's worth (IMO anyway!) noting that in UK Class 4 handicap hurdles over 2m6f to 3m2f, males who won a hcp hrd LTO are 96/436 (22% SR) for 46.7pts (+10.7% ROI) with 7 yr olds winning 21 of 75 (28%) for 34.1pts (+45.4%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by 10Bet, Bet365, Betfair, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening and which was still widely available at 9.00am today.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 10/3 BOG WON at 11/4 (Made all, ran on strongly, clear over 1f out, ran on strongly, unchallenged winning by 2.75 lengths) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground, worth £6498 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is 3 from 5 over fences in the past 6 months, including 3 wins from 4 at this grade. far from disgraced in finishing third last time out 33 days ago in a better (C3) contest than this one, he is now sent on a 500-mile round trip to run here, down in both class and weight (-1lb from LTO). The distance might or might not be relevant, as there's arguably an easier/shorter journey from Somerset to racing at Fontwell tomorrow.

Trainer Jeremy Scott is one worth keeping onside with his handicap chasers, who have been profitable to follow for each of the last five years, clocking up 53 winners from 287 (18.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 107.8pts at a healthy ROI of 37.6%. With today's contest/conditions in mind, let's look at just ten ways Jeremy has found those 53 profitable winners...

  1. Males are 52/272 (19.1%) for 117.1pts (+43.1%)
  2. 5 to 9 yr olds are 39/183 (21.3%) for 123.4pts (+67.4%)
  3. Those last seen 21-75 days earlier are 36/173 (20.8%) for 87.1pts (+50.3%)
  4. Those sent off at odds of 15/8 to 6/1 are 35/124 (28.2%) for 60.4pts (+48.7%)
  5. Those racing at Class 4 are 34/155 (21.9%) for 94.2pts (+60.8%)
  6. Those racing on officially Good ground are 28/144 (19.4%) for 47.9pts (+33.2%)
  7. Those racing in fields of 5 to 7 runners are 26/109 (23.9%) for 95.8pts (+87.8%)
  8. Those ridden by Matt Griffiths are 18/101 (17.8%) for 21.4pts (+21.2%)
  9. Those dropping down a class are 14/43 (32.6%) for 64.1pts (+149.2%)
  10. And those making a round trip of 450 miles or more are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.7pts (+99%) - yard clearly has no qualms about travelling.

All the above are, of course, applicable today, but if you wanted to reduce the number of bets made and also maybe combine some of the more winner-finding angles, you could try...5-9 yr old males sent off at 15/8 to 6/1 some 21 to 75 days after their last run : this simple and easy to follow angle has been worth 16 winners from 55 witht he 29.1% strike rate yielding 26.7pts profit at an ROI of 48.6%...

...and would highlight... a 1pt win bet on Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th May

LEICESTER – MAY 28

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £21.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 41.6% units went through – 15/8* - 20/1 – 14/1

Race 2: 78.3% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 5/2

Race 3: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 10/3*

Race 4: 87.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 9/2 – 4/6*

Race 5: 62.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 9/4*

Race 6: 30.8% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 6 (Strongarm Chaser), 8 (Racehorse) & 5 (Full Suit)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 2 (2.20): 4 (Miss Mumtaz), 2 (Katie Lee) & 6 (Downtown Mombasa)

Leg 3 (2.55): 3 (Barton Mills), 1 (Etefaaq) & 6 (Prince Ahwanee)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Raa Atoll) & 1 (Photographer)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Burgonet) & 3 (Sailing Home)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Jumira Bridge), 1 (Aclimatise) & 7 (Najashee)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2, which rules out the top four horses in the handicap, leaving the likes of STRONGARM CHASER, RACEHORSE and FULL SUIT to assess.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference before we get some clues from the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last ten renewals during which time, eight winners scored at a top price of 7/2.  Eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

2.20: Ian Williams can do little wrong just now and the popular handler has declared MISS MUMTAZ with definite claims in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Talented rivals are only conspicuous by their absence in the main, possible excluding the likes of KATIE LEE and DOWNTOWN MOMBASA.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for fillies – always encouraged) on the Leicester card

 

2.55: Twelve winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminate Airshow at the bottom of the handicap.  BARTON MILLS and ETEFAAQ both sport headgear for the first time and I anticipate the aids to have the desired effect, particularly from a Placepot perspective in a half decent contest.  PRINCE AHWANEE completes my trio against the remaining six entries.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders snared Placepot positions.  Nine of the twelve winners during the study period scored at a top price of 9/1.

 

3.30: RAA ATOLL and PHOTOGRAPHER jumped off the page in a flash (apologies offered!) with John Gosden’s pair fully expected to claim Placepot positions.  Readers looking for an alternative option could do worse than consider the merits of Rashdan.

Favourite factor: This is another new (novice) contest on the Leicester programme.

 

4.05: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Ed Dunlop’s runners.  When I include his representatives in the mix they disappoint and vice versa.  Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the country as I am passing up the chance of Ed’s recent Chepstow winner Qaswarah.  I prefer BURGONET and SAILING HOME, from a value for money perspective if little else.

Favourite factor: This is becoming a little repetitive being the third new race at the meeting.

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won both renewals thus far and whilst that fact does not pass as a trend just yet, I’ll opt for the scenario to be extended by vintage representatives, JUMIRA BRIDGE, ACLIMATISE and NAJASHEE.

Favourite factor: Only one of the two favourites thus far secured a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Jay Kay (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 22nd May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £672.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 6.9% units went through – 10/1 & 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 41.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 14/1 3/1*

Race 3: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 6/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 5: 34.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 9/4 – 9/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Darrik) & 1 (Barend Boy)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Ibraz), 6 (Infastructure) & 1 (Hasanoanda)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Viceroy Mac), 9 (Tebay) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (3.25): 4 (Fabulous Red), 3 (Caiya) & 1 (Verandah)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Affina), 3 (Sea Youmzain) & 7 (Storm Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Airton) & 2 (Really Super)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BAREND BOY probably deserves to get his head in front after two likeable efforts thus far though in DAARIK, Hugo Palmer’s raider once again finds a tough cookie to beat, in all probability.  The exchanges (at the time of writing) suggests that the latter named John Gosden raider might have to give way to experience on this occasion but that said, jungle drums have been beating for Jim Crowley’s mount for some time.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader (Panphobia – the fear of everything) finished out with the washing.

 

2.20: History Writer was weak on the exchanges in the dead of night, whereby preference is offer to IBRAZ and INFASTRUCTURE before the market takes any real shape.  I’m not quite sure what to make of HASANOANDA as an individual but one thing I for certain, his trainer (John Gosden) knows the time of day at every level of the sport whereby it could prove churlish in the extreme to leave the Lingfield (A/W) winner out of the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

2.55: “Dragons Voice jumps off the page to a fashion here” is how I started my analysis of this race twelve months ago before Fran Berry’s mount scored at 8/1. Seeking to follow up in similar fashion, I’m offering a chance to VICEROY MAC who has been the subject of overnight support at around the same price.  David Loughane’s Sepoy gelding was highly tried at Ascot on his seasonal debut recently and stepping down to this level could bring about a much improved effort.  Others for the Placepot mix include TEBAY and MASHAHEER.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.25: As readers can testify to their cost (via a big priced selection the other week at Chester), I find it difficult to know when Ed Dunlop is about to strike with his horses but that said, FABULOUS RED demands to be in the mix here from my viewpoint.  If I am going to hold a post-race self-imposed enquiry on my hands, it will probably mean that I have under estimated the chances of CAIYA and VERANDAH. John Gosden’s latter named raider might not be out of the mix from a win perspective despite top weight, whilst CAIYA is unbeaten thus far via three assignments, whereby it’s difficult to put a line through Eve Johnson Houghton’s fast improving Casamento filly.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Nottingham programme.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Daddies Girl (good to soft)

 

4.00: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at just 7/1.  AFFINA is attracting support at the time of writing and if Simon Chrisford has his Kodiac filly anywhere near cherry ripe for her seasonal debut, James Doyle’s mount should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  That comment would normally mean that I would just add one more horse in my mix, but as this is potentially a ‘dead eight’ event, I’m looking for two additions in fear of a non runner rearing its ugly head.  The pin has fallen on the pair of SEA YOUMZAIN and STORM JAZZ.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far without having been represented in two of the missing years.  AIRTON is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and is the first name on the team sheet accordingly.  James Bethell’s Champ Elesees gelding represents a yard which has celebrated two (12/1 & 7/1) winners of late and it’s worth noting that Jim Crowley’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight.  That same comment also applies to REALLY SUPER who was overpriced in double figures from my viewpoint, albeit I respect my own ‘favourite figures’ below which suggests that a short priced entry should win the contest.  The problem is that I don’t fancy any of the said declarations!

Favourite factor: The nine favourites to date have secured five gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

5/18—Hallstatt (3 x good & 2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

3.05 Redcar : Northandsouth @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (Self Cert : Bruised Foot)

I'm a bit late tonight after spending the afternoon with my nan who is 96 today, but our second go at starting the new week is via Tuesday's...

7.40 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Not A Role Model @ 5/2 BOG non-runner at 8.40am! (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4, 2m4f Handicap Chase  (5yo+) on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner... 

Why?

N/A, sadly.

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Not A Role Model @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.35pm on Monday, althought those with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 10th May

CHESTER – MAY 10 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:

2017: £42.70 (7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed)

2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £102.48 - 47 favourites - 18 won - 16 placed - 13 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 81.2% units went through – 10/11* & 4/1

Race 2: 68.6% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* & 4/1

Race 3: 48.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2** - 9/1 – 8/1 (7/2**)

Race 4: 49.3% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 8/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 & 6/1 (4/6)

Race 6: 52.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 11/1 – 5/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (El Astronaute), 1 (Doctor Sardonicus) & 6 (Hyperfocus)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Rostropovich), 5 (My Lord And Master) & 1 (Kenya)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Tadleel), 8 (Dragon’s Tail) & 1 (Another Batt)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Idaho) & 6 (Muntahaa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Arcadian Rocks) & 6 (Ynys Mon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 4 (Christopher Robin), 3 (Ghostwatch) & 1 (Austrian School)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We started the Chester meeting off with a successful permutation yesterday – let’s hope for more of the same today!

 

1.50:  EL ASTRONAUTE attempts to follow up last year’s success in the race and with trainer John Quinn having scored with four of his last eight runners, Jason Hart’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  DOCTOR SARDONICUS should not be too far away at the jamstick, particularly if Tom Dascombe’s raider is given anything like an easy lead up front, whilst HYPERFOCUS looks a tad too big at 40/1 in a place this morning, despite his negative stall position.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of seven course winners in the opening race:

2/5—El Astronaute (good & good to soft)

2/4—Sir Maximilian (2 x good)

1/6—Reflektor (good to soft)

2/4—Boundsy (2 x good)

2/5—Confessional (good to soft & soft)

3/13—Powerallied (2 x good & soft)

1/4—Bossipop (good to soft)

Draw factor (Five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Dee Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event six times via the last eleven renewals in which the team has been represented and with strong candidates such as ROSTROPOVICH and KENYA this time around, Aidan looks sure to go close to extending his recent tally.  That said, MY LORD AND MASTER cannot be left out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 12 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  13 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

3.00: Ten of the last sixteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with TADLEEL and DRAGON’S TAIL (winner on the corresponding card last year) representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  TADLEEL hails from the Ed Dunlop stable which has won with three of its five three-year-old handicappers at Chester during the last five years.  Although Ed’s last seven runners have been beaten, four of them reached the frame (exact science) at 16/1, 14/1, 13/2 and 5/1, whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is an each way player today, despite an unfortunate draw.  Jim is one of the two jockeys which have ridden the Dark Angel colt to victory thus far.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, ANOTHER BATT could prove to be the joker in the pack and it’s worth noting that money was coming in for Silvestre’s mount as dawn broke over Bristol this morning.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include seven winners.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (9 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Dragon’s Tail (good)

 

3.35 ‘Ormonde Stakes’: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals (not represented on one occasion), though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence.  No trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute who has saddled the winner six times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992. That said, Michael is also on the missing list which leaves us eyeing up the prospect of another Aidan O’Brien winner in IDAHO who looks overpriced at the 11/8 quote in the trade press overnight. Indeed, favourite backers might be doing well to obtain 5/6 nearer flag fall, with MUNTAHAA seemingly the only horse standing in his way this afternoon.  The form of Idaho at the top level last year at his best would surely see the five-year-old home here with something to spare.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have rewarded investors during the last twenty years.  17 of the last 19 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  ‘Only’ seven of the twelve market leaders in as many years have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.

Chester record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Duretto (heavy)

1/1—Muntahaa (good)

 

4.05: Mick Channon has saddled eight of his 21 juvenile runners this season to winning effect and with ARCADIAN ROCKS having landed a trap one position, Mick’s Society Rock colt could improve the ratio still further.  YNYS MON is the obvious threat from what we have witnessed to date, especially as any jungle drums beating for newcomers have not reached my ears at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 22 favourites during the last 19 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

2-1 (7 ran-good)

9-3-12 (10 ran-good)

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

4.35: Eleven different trainers have saddled the winner of this race in recent years, though with the likes of CHRISTOPHER ROBIN, GHOSTWATCH and AUSTRIAN SCHOOL looking to have the race between them, the negative trainer factor is not really an issue.

Favourite factor: Two favourites (3/1 & 5/2) have won during the last eleven years, whilst nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2 during the study period.

Draw factor: (Twelve furlongs): With just eight runners going to post, this event should not be affected by the draw, especially as the horses mentioned in despatches should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

 

Record of the five course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Al Destoor (soft)

1/5—Dark Devil (heavy)

1/1—Never Surrender (good)

1/8—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

2/6—Berrahri (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 24th April

BRIGHTON – APRIL 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £56.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 32.5% units went through – 3/1 & 9/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 67.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 9/4* - 10/3

Race 3: 47.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* & 9/2

Race 4: 43.7% of the remaining units went through –8/1 – 13/2 – 3/1 (5/2)

Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 6/1 – 13/8*

Race 6: 34.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* & 20/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (4.15): 4 (Baltic Prince) & 3 (Tigerwolf)

Leg 2 (4.50): 3 (It’s the Only Way), 6 (Al Manhalah) & 7 (Knockabout Queen)

Leg 3 (5.25): 7 (Andalusite), 3 (Art Echo) & 5 (Madrinho)

Leg 4 (5.55): 6 (Prince Jai), 3 (Violet’s Lads) & 10 (Joyful Dream)

Leg 5 (6.30): 7 (Becca Campbell), 8 (Let’s Be Happy) & 6 (Poetic Force)

Leg 6 (7.05): 10 (The Secret’s Out) & 2 (Hint Of Grey)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

4.15: BALTIC PRINCE is the each way call in the contest from my viewpoint, even though TIGERWOLF has a favourite’s chance in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Trainer Tony Carroll (BALTIC PRINCE) is on a great run just now, boasting a 40% strike rate via six recent winners, gold medallists which have produce 34 points of level stake profits during the period.

Favourite factor: Three of the last five market leaders secured Placepot positions (one winner) via three renewals.

Record of the four course winners in the opening event:

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1/1—Ocean Temptress (good to soft)

1/8—Swiss Cross (good to firm)

1/3—Baltic Prince (good)

4/25—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft)

 

4.50: KNOCKABOUT QUEEN was as green as grass at the first time of asking and can only do better for in form Mick Channon, albeit I was expecting the Sixties Icon filly to be targeted at a more conventional track than Brighton where the gradients can catch seasoned thoroughbreds out on occasions.  That taken into account, I will hold back from a win perspective, whilst adding IT’S THE ONLY WAY and AL MANHALAH into my Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions via four renewals to date, statistics which include two winners.

 

5.25: Not the easiest ‘short field’ event to assess, with course and distance winners ART ECHO and ANDALUSITE being the first to horses short listed. John Gallagher saddles the latter named raider with the trainer boasting 24 winners at the track in eighteen year of having held a license.  John’s next best haul is ten (Goodwood) whereby you can detect that this must be his favourite venue.  ART ECHO won on soft ground when successful here, which probably means that I will add MADRINHO into the Placepot mix. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year when the 7/2 market leader snared a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.

Record of the four course winners in the third contest on the card.

1/1—Sayesse (good to firm)

4/16—Black Caesar (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/2—Art Echo (soft)

3/7—Andalusite (2 x good to firm & good)

 

5.55: Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 10-6 in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions (21 up for grabs) gained via seven renewals, the two vintages having (equally) shared six of the seven contests to date.  I’m taking a trio of vintage representatives to get us through to the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, namely PRINCE JAI, VIOLETS LADS and JOYFUL DREAM.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/1, 7/2 & 11/4) winners.

Record of the six course winners in the field:

1/5—Corporal Maddox (good to soft)

1/4—Hidden Stash (good)

2/7—Indus Valley (good & good to firm)

3/13—Live Dangrously (2 x good to soft & good)

3/26—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – firm)

1/9—Ettie Hart (good to form)

 

6.30I’m struggling to put lines though the names of the two course winners here, despite both runners on offer at double figure prices at the time of writing.  BECCA CAMPBELL (Eve Johnson Houghton) and LET’S BE HAPPY (Ali Stronge) look sure to give supporters a decent run for their collective monies, nominating   POETIC FORCE as the potential joker in the pack as far as our outsiders are concerned.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

3/7—Becca Campbell (3 x good)

1/3—Let’s Be Happy (good to firm)

 

7.05: I have only left myself two options for the competitive looking Placepot finale but that said, the likes of THE SECRET’S OUT (should revert to consistent form now that he has had his pipe opener for the campaign) and HINT OF GREY (strong local contender for Gary Moore) can do the Placepot business for us in the lucky last.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Brighton card.

Record of the three course winners in the line up:

1/2—Hint Of Grey (good)

2/15—Solveig’s Song (good to form & good to soft)

2/10—With Approval (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It never rains but…

If you are on a floodplain you can expect to be flooded. Huntingdon racecourse is on a floodplain, and last weekend it was flooded, depriving the course of its Family Fun day fixture and a crowd likely to be upwards of 4,000 people. I had driven past the track on Tuesday, at which time it was all under water, and Noah could have moored his ark right by the grandstand.

This morning I went to meet Sam Butler Spelzini, Head Groundsman, to find out what he and his team would have to do to have the course ready for the next meeting on 24 April. I was astounded when I arrived to see plenty of green grass, as almost all the water had drained away as quickly as it had appeared. Sam went through the timeline of recent days that led up to the abandonment of Monday's meeting before talking through the remedial work necessary to repair the damage to the course.

The first indication that rain was on its way came in a flood alert for Kings Lynn and the fens at around 1030 on Friday night (30 March). Early the following morning it arrived, and 13 mm over the course of the day was enough so that, in the words of the old Sunday School chorus, "The rains came down and the floods came up." You could almost see the water rolling across the track. Indeed, when there was torrential rain at the conclusion of a previous meeting Sam had to give a real hurry up to the burger vans to move or risk being marooned.

One of the contributory factors to flooding is the network of culverts and streams that surround the course. They are something of a double edged sword, for whilst they help enormously with quick drainage, when there is more water in them than they can cope with, the only way is up. Three of them converge at one point, so it's like three lanes of motorway traffic merging into one, with neither the cars nor the water able to continue at their original speed. Result - blockage followed by overspill.

Huntingdon is regularly described as a flat track, and so it is, though not totally. Most times when there is waterlogging, around half the circuit will be submerged, roughly from the chute at the end of the home straight to the end of the back straight, following the line of a brook running diagonally across the infield. Last weekend you could add to that most of the home straight, the area of picnic tables in front of the stands, and the whole area behind the stands, including the paddock. All of this area was in a good foot of water, and in parts of the course it was more than two feet deep.

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Huntingdon stable block

A final area that became flooded was the stable block. This has room for 100 horses, and by Friday evening all units were kitted out with bedding ready for Monday's meeting. The first job on Saturday morning was to lift as much of this bedding as possible; clearly if it became waterlogged it would just have to be thrown way. It was the flood water reaching this far that prompted one of the groundstaff team to remark that he had never seen conditions so bad in his 12 years working there.

There was nothing the team could do until the water receded, which it began to do on Tuesday. The further rain forecast for that day thankfully didn't materialise. This morning almost all the water had drained away they and the team was out on the track to begin the clear up. The first job is hand raking through the turf to collect all the debris that's been left behind. Mostly this is reeds and straw, but amongst the other items to have been deposited are some pieces of plastic running rail and an old railway sleeper.

Once that job is done, the task of getting the turf back into racing condition can begin. There are two activities here. First Sam will verti-drain the course to help further with the drainage, and also to aerate the soil. Think putting your garden fork in the ground and wiggling it back and forth. Thankfully Sam's machine fits on the back of a tractor.

The clean up begins

I wondered what damage the soaking might have done to the fences and hurdles, and was a little surprised to find they should all be fine. Of course the core of the fences is hard wood, and the birch for the hurdles is another natural substance. The most vulnerable part of the obstacles is the kick board on the take off side of the fences.

The flooding has dislodged many of the divots brought up from racing during the season. Replacing these with a mix of topsoil, compost and seed, followed by a levelling of the surface will bring the racetrack up to fitness, but not the public or stable areas.

Rightly, the British Horseracing Authority has rigorous requirements for the welfare of horses, and there's work to be done in the stable block following the flood to ensure those standards are met. In total, 95 of the stable units were under a foot or so of water. Now they are clear of any bedding that couldn't be removed earlier. Next they will all be pressure hosed down and disinfected, before another wash down. Finally, after time to dry out, they can be kitted out with fresh bedding ready for he next equine visitors.

On Tuesday afternoon the BHA offered an extra fixture to Huntingdon, to take place this coming Saturday. After deliberation, the course turned down the opportunity, feeling they would not be quite ready. It's taking place at Fakenham instead. If it were scheduled for Sunday, Sam reckons they might have gone for it, and next Monday they would jump at the chance.

What a busy few days, all the more so when you realise that in the week before a meeting on 30 March last year the course was dry and the team were watering the track. Oh, the vagaries of the British weather.

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.50 Bangor : Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Made most until after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

The final week of the month kicks off with Monday's...

3.05 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 2m4f Novices Limited Handicap Chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £5,198 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 1U1 in his three efforts over fences so far, winning at trips of 2m2f and 2m4.5f, both at this Class 4 grade and he certainly likes some cut in the ground.

His trainer, Lawney Hill, has done well with her handicap chasers of late, winning 11 of 44 (25% SR) since the start of 2016 and these 44 (all male!) have returned level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+40% ROI) to those backing them blindly, including...

  • those last seen in the previous 30 days are 9/26 (34.6%) for 21.2pts (+81.5%)
  • those priced at 5/2 to 17/2 are 9/21 (42.9%) for 35.1pts (+167.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips of 2m0.5f to 2m4.5f : 10/16 (62.5%) for 36.7pts (+229.3%)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.2pts (+265.5%)
  • from February to April inclusive : 5/10 (50%) for 15.22pts (+152.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.1pts (+145.4%)

In addition to the 6 wins from 11 noted above, jockey Aidan Coleman's own record is good here at this venue, winning 29 of 152 (19.1% SR) jumps races since the start of 2011.

And more generally, in UK Class 3/4 handicap chases since the start of 2013, males who won a handicap chase LTO 4 to 20 days earlier and now run over a trip shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word Good in the official description at either the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades from LTO are 198/754 (26.3% SR) for profits of 115.9pts at an ROI of 15.4%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & SkyBet at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.50 Bangor : Comber Mill @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Made most until after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

The final week of the month kicks off with Monday's...

3.05 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 2m4f Novices Limited Handicap Chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £5,198 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 1U1 in his three efforts over fences so far, winning at trips of 2m2f and 2m4.5f, both at this Class 4 grade and he certainly likes some cut in the ground.

His trainer, Lawney Hill, has done well with her handicap chasers of late, winning 11 of 44 (25% SR) since the start of 2016 and these 44 (all male!) have returned level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+40% ROI) to those backing them blindly, including...

  • those last seen in the previous 30 days are 9/26 (34.6%) for 21.2pts (+81.5%)
  • those priced at 5/2 to 17/2 are 9/21 (42.9%) for 35.1pts (+167.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips of 2m0.5f to 2m4.5f : 10/16 (62.5%) for 36.7pts (+229.3%)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.2pts (+265.5%)
  • from February to April inclusive : 5/10 (50%) for 15.22pts (+152.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.1pts (+145.4%)

In addition to the 6 wins from 11 noted above, jockey Aidan Coleman's own record is good here at this venue, winning 29 of 152 (19.1% SR) jumps races since the start of 2011.

And more generally, in UK Class 3/4 handicap chases since the start of 2013, males who won a handicap chase LTO 4 to 20 days earlier and now run over a trip shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word Good in the official description at either the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades from LTO are 198/754 (26.3% SR) for profits of 115.9pts at an ROI of 15.4%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Clondaw Westie @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & SkyBet at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 14th March

CHELTENHAM – MARCH 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £3,255.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 56.8% units went through – 14/1, 2/1* & 8/1

Race 2: 55.7% of the remaining units when through – 7/2*, 9/2 & 5/1

Race 3: 7.1% of the remaining units went through – 16/1, 12/1, 33/1 & 66/1 (7/2)

Race 4: 5.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/1, 7/1 & 33/1 (2/9)

Race 5: 56.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 9/4*

Race 6: 30.8% of the units secured the dividend – 33/1, 9/2*, 12/1 & 14/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 12 (Samcro) & 11 (Next Destination)

Leg 2 (2.10): 9 (Monalee), 6 (Dounikos) & 4 (Black Corton)

Leg 3 (2.40): 15 (Springtown Lake), 12 (Fixe Le Kap) & 5 (River Frost)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Min) & 2 (Altior)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Cause Of Causes), 9 (Josies Orders) & 13 (Urgent De Gregaine)

Leg 6 (4.40): 21 (Grand Sancy), 22 (Eragon De Chaney, 1 (Casa Tall) & 2 (Mitchouka)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

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1.30: Willie Mullins has won four of the last ten renewals (Willie saddled the 16/1 runner up six years ago for good measure) whilst six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 11-5 during the last 16 years, statistics which brings NEXT DESTINATION straight into the mix, though Ruby’s mount might have some trouble getting past SAMCRO who looks set to become Gordon Elliott’s first Festival winner this year.  Gordon will have been delighted with his third placed horse in the Champion Hurdle yesterday ay 25/1 (his first runner in the race), a position which two of his other six runners on the opening day occupied.  Cheltenham is a place which brings you down to earth very quickly however, with Gordon’s other four representatives all failing to complete the course in their respective events.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—7 winners—9 placed—7 unplaced. First three in the betting: 70 runners--13 winners--21 placed--36 unplaced.

 

2.10: Seven-year-olds have run riot in this RSA event in recent times, having won nine of the last eleven renewals, whilst also securing 19 of the last 27 renewals.  Three representatives look to stand out from the crowd in terms of win and each way perspectives, with MONALEE looking likely to win from my viewpoint, closely followed home by DOUNIKOS and (possibly) BLACK CORTON at half decent odds.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 24 market leaders—7 winners—7 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 70 runners--11 winners--22 placed--37 unplaced.

 

2.50: 11 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 11-0 or less, whilst horses in the lower sector of the handicap have secured 16 of the total of 24 renewals of the Coral Cup thus far.  Six-year-olds have won six of the last 17 renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a ‘short list’ of SPRINGTOWN LAKE, FIXE LE KAP, RIVER FROST and TOPOFTHEGAME.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 24 market leaders—1 winner—5 placed—18 unplaced. First three in the betting: 78 runners--5 winners--19 placed--54 unplaced.

 

3.30: 14 of the last 18 winners of the Champion Chase have emerged from the front three in the betting, the other gold medallists having started at 16/1, 11/1 and 10/1 (twice).  Until the weekend, this event looked fairly cut and Dried with ALTIOR expected to win readily with DOUVAN probably heading for the ‘Ryanair’ event on Thursday.  All that has changed now with the scare relating to Altior at the weekend, which might have influenced the Mullins camp to change direction with Douvan.  Either way, the horse which has been unaffected by all this is MIN who could emerge as the value for money call given the circumstances.  There is rarely ‘smoke without fire’ which suggests that even money (thereabouts) no longer represents value in Altior who would otherwise have been my call.

Favourite factor:  Fate of the favourites: 24 market leaders—7 winners—5 placed—12 unplaced. First three in the betting: 68 runners: 16 winners--22 placed--30 unplaced.

 

4.10: The unique cross country event was the first race to be added to the fixture in order to create a fourth day of the meeting back in 2005. The race has been won by an Irish trainer in 11 of the 13 years to date, dominated by Enda Bolger who has saddled five winners and nine placed horses.  The pick of Enda’s horses this time around will hopefully prove to be JOSIES ORDERS under Nina Carberry, though CAUSE OF CAUSES is the call to repeat last year’s success.  CAUSE OF CAUSES has won at the Festival in each of the last three years which not many horses achieve, albeit in different events. Speculative each way investors could do worse than consider the merits of URGENT DE GREGAINE at around the 16/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the 13 contests to date (eight of the other ten market leaders finished out of the frame), whilst ten gold medallists emerged from the front three in the betting.

 

4.50: A fiendishly difficult Placepot finale in all honesty and if you don’t believe yours truly, take a look at the favourite stats below! I’m not going to bury you in waffle (other than the fact that eight of the last nine winners have carried 11-2 or less); suffice to suggest that I am banking on GRAND SANCY, ERAGON DE CHANEY, CASA TALL and MITCHOUKA to see if we can secure the toteplacepot dividend, hoping we are live going into the sixth and final leg of our favourite wager.  I have included some speculative types, hoping to land a big dividend!

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame since the last favourite prevailed back in 2010.  Five of the last six gold medallists were returned at 40/1--33/1—33/1—25/1—25/1!

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Cheltenham card on Wednesday:

18 runners—Willie Mullins

10—Gordon Elliott

6—Tom George

6—Nicky Henderson

5—Paul Nicholls

5—Colin Tizzard

4—Henry De Bromhead

4—Fergal O’Brien

4—Ben Pauling

3—Enda Bolger

3—Gary Moore

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies

+ 50 different trainers who each saddle one or two runners on the card

121 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell: £19.70 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

Huntingdon: £297.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £84.60 – 6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 22nd February

HUNTINGDON – FEBRUARY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: Meeting abandoned

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Sergio), 13 (Pheonix Rock) & 1 (Now Listen Here)

Leg 2 (2.20): 10 (World Premier) & 1 (Brecon Hill)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Shining Romeo), 2 (Sir Egbert) & 8 (Marmont)

Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Garde Forestier) & 3 (Doitforthevillage)

Leg 5 (4.05): 3 (Renes Girl), 2 (Desert Queen) & 1 (Antartica De Thaix)

Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Must Havea Flutter) & 4 (Kincora Fort)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Yet another Placepot dividend was landed yesterday whereby we go into today’s encounter full of confidence.  Six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and in offering a trio of vintage representatives we should be well on our way to landing another ‘Pot’, namely SERGIO, PHEONIX ROCK and NOW LISTEN HERE.  For the record, SERGIO would be the call if forced into a single nomination.  The alternative each way option is Taken By Force at a big price.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed this far at 11/4, 9/4 & 13/8, though only one of the other four market leaders additional claimed a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/5—Phare Isle (good to soft)

 

2.20: Only a photo finish defeat stopped BRECON HILL from landing hat trick of wins last year via just three assignments whereby some overnight support is entirely justified from what we have witnessed thus far.  That said, it’s going to take a plethora of cash to usurp WORLD PREMIER as favourite for this event, whilst the declaration of AARDWOLF adds icing onto the cake.  The weight concession to AARDWOLF should bring Richard Johnson’s mount into the equation, though I still marginally prefer the penalised horses on this occasion.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/11 favourite found one too good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

2.55: Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1, whilst six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick. The vintage nomination is offered to SHINING ROMEO following overnight support on the exchanges, whilst SIR EGBERT and MARMONT (despite carrying sixteen ounces short of the ‘superior’ handicap mark) complete my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date via an exact science, statistics which include three (11/4 & 9/4 twice) winners.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

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1/4—Shining Romeo (good)

1/2—Marmont (soft)

 

3.30: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Wincanton winner GARDE FORESTIER is the lone six-year-old in the field, with connections probably having most to fear from DOITFORTHEVILLAGE.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date via an exact science, statistics which include three (11/4 & 9/4 twice) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

4/11—Occasionally Yours (4 x good)

1/1—hear The Chimes (soft)

 

4.05: Arguably the most difficult race on the Placepot card with marginal votes going to RENES GIRL, DESERT QUEEN and ANTARTICA DE THAIX, though I would not be interested in the race from a win perspective, even if you offered my money to bet with!

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/2 market leader had to give best to the 5/2 second favourite from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Antartica De Thaix (soft)

1/2—Mariah’s Legend (good to soft)

 

4.40: The Placepot finale looks (hopefully) cut and dried with MUST HAVEA FLUTTER and KINCORA FORT having been declared to run.  The first named Dan Skelton raider looks to have a decent enough Placepot opportunity despite the seven pound rise for his Market Rasen victory on Sunday. KINCORA FORT represents a real threat however, and there may not be much daylight between the pair at the jamstick.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—King Spirit (soft)

 

Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured Placepot positions, stat which include three winners at 11/4, 13/8 & 4/7.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Dan Skelton (2/21 – loss of 11 points) – 18/113 – loss of 52

3—Ben Pauling (2/12 – loss of 7) – 10/46 +81

3—Evan Williams (First runners at Huntingdon this season) – 4/19 – loss of 1

2—David Bridgwater (0/4) – 3/21 +14

2—Jo David (2/5 +6) – 2/18 – loss of 6

2—Nigel Hawke (First runners at Huntingdon this season) – 0/3)

2—Nicky Henderson (7/16 – slight profit) – 30/91 – loss of 11

2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 2/19 +5

2—Tom Lacey (0/1) – 2/7 +18

2—Graeme McPherson (0/7) – 2/38 – loss of 22

2—Gary Moore (2/19 – loss of 4) – 16/99 +6

2—Neil Mulholland (0/9) – 7/40 – loss of 15

2—Jonjo O’Neill (5/25 +3) – 29/155 +18

2—Denis Quinn (0/8) – 3/24 +8

2—Richard Rowe (First runners at Huntingdon this season) – 0/4

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/7) – 5/46 – loss of 16

2—Noel Williams (0/2) – 2/18 – loss of 5

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £132.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £37.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 8th February

HUNTINGDON – FEBRUARY 8 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £10.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners + 2 placed)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 6 (Marmont), 7 (Kaddys Dream) & 3 (Now Listen Here)

Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Abbreviate), 3 (Nobuttaboy) & 5 (Free Range)

Leg 3 (2.15): 5 (Vinndication) & 4 (Theclockisticking)

Leg 4 (2.50): 5 (Wild Blue Yonder) & 6 (Zipple Back)

Leg 5 (3.20): 7 (Minella For Me), 2 (Bally GIlbert) & 3 (Glenforde)

Leg 6 (3.55): 1 (Hoke Colburn), 4 (Braw Angus) & 6 (Boss Mans Ladder)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: At 7/2 and 8/1 in a place or two at the time of writing, MARMONT and NOW LISTEN HERE are a couple of potential movers (respectively) in the markets this morning, though not enough to get involved with aside from our favourite wager.  There is also quite a bit of realistic money in the positive queue on the exchanges for KADDYS DREAM from Robin Dickin’s in form yard, the trainer having saddled six of his last eleven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Huntingdon with which to open proceedings

 

1.45: Seven-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals of this contest, with ABBREVIATE and NOBUTTABOY in place to extend the advantage still further between them if they are up to the task.  FREE RANGE appears to be the potential joker in the pack to deny the relevant vintage representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twelve years.  Four favourites won at 7/2-5/2-9/4- 13/8 via nine renewals during the period.

 

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2.15: Five and six-year-olds have shared ten of the last eleven contests (six-year-olds lead 6-4), though I have only left the stat in for those of you that keep records, as all six contenders represent the two vintages this time around.  This is an interesting puzzle to solve despite the lack of numbers, with VINNDICATION and THECLOCKISTICKING marginally preferred to their four rivals. Even the outsider (Dell Oro) is being backed on the exchanges at the time of writing which adds mystery to the potential drama in the making.

Favourite factor: Although favourites have won four renewals during the last twelve years, only three of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the ‘Sidney Banks’:

1/1—Equus Secretus (good)

1/1—Theclockisticking (good)

 

2.50: Eight of the last nine winners in total carried a minimum burden of 10-12 which eliminates seven of the nine strong field, if you take jockey claims into account.  RED INDIAN and DELL A’RCA are left but even then, Ben Pauling’s first named raider has (seemingly) a preferred option at Towcester this afternoon.  It all makes a messy affair and no mistake, whereby a chance is taken that WILD BLUE YONDER can make up for lost time having has just two races in the thick end of four years.  If the ‘bounce factor’ has not kicked in since an encouraging effort at Newbury in December, Alan King’s raider can at least gain a Placepot position en route to better things in the spring.  With Red Indian and probably Brillaire Momento being re-routed to Towcester, we’re left with ZIPPLE BACK and (arguably) DELL’ ARCA to consider as the main dangers.

Favourite factor: Three (11/10, 15/8 & 2/1) favourites have won during the study period, though five of the last eight market leaders have failed to secure toteplacepot positions.

 

3.20: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last seven contests (and four of the last ten), with MINELLA FOR ME being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Tom George is another trainer who has his team in decent order whereby the eight-year-old is the first name on the team sheet, followed by BALLY GILBERT and GLENFORDE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven market leaders finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

1/3—Ratify (soft)

 

3.55: Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5 and the trio that catch the eye are HOKE COLBURN, BRAW ANGUS and BOSS MANS LADDER, the three horses being listed in order of preference. The overnight reserve nomination is offered to Amberjam who would have been included in the Placepot mix but for the claimer in the saddle which has enabled Lucy Wadham’s raider to slip into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Six of the last thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders, two of which were returned as joint favourites.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Braw Angus (soft)

1/1—Amberjam (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) followed by the last five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Kim Bailey (2/8 – loss of 3 points) – 19/83 +40 points

5—Ben Pauling (2/8 – loss of 3) – 10/42 +85

3—Warren Greatrex (0/4) – 6/38 loss of 19

3—Alan King (1/15 – loss of 12) – 22/107 – loss of 28

3—Gary Moore (2/17 – loss of 2) – 16/97 +8

2—Robin Dickin (0/4) – 1/12 +7

2—Stuart Edmunds (2/6 +4) – 4/16 +2

2—John Groucott (First runners this season at the track) – 0/1

2—Harry Fry (0/2) – 4/16 – loss of 2 points

2—Donald McCain (0/4) – 2/28 – loss of 15

2—Dan Skelton (2/19 – loss of 9

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £58.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £49.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: £20.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 26th January

DONCASTER – JANUARY 26

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £32.30 (7 favourites: 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 2 (Doktor Glaz), 1 (Spiritual Man) & 5 (Glimpse Of Gold)

Leg 2 (1.25): 9 (Perfect Harmony) & 3 (Cracking Destiny)

Leg 3 (1.55): 1 (Mount Mews) & 2 (Wotzizname)

Leg 4 (2.30): 8 (Nube Negra) & 1 (Bambys Boy)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Bako De La Saulaie), 8 (Amber Gambler) & 9 (Baileys Concerto)

Leg 6 (3.40): 12 (Does It In Style), 7 (Peppay Le Pugh) & 10 (Fit For Fifty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50:  Every horse in training is allowed an off day once in a while whereby I am offering DOKTOR GLAZ another chance following a slightly disappointing effort here at Town Moor the last day.  The fact that money is emerging for Rose Dobbin’s raider is a positive sign too, particularly from a Placepot perspective.  Others to consider include SPIRITUAL MAN (the first of no less than eight runners on the card for Jonjo O’Neill) and GLIMPSE OF GOLD.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had claimed toteplacepot positions (one (7/2** winner) before the 2016 renewal which witnessed the complete demise of the 7/2 market leader.  Things returned to type twelve months ago however when the 2/1 market leader snared a Placeepot position without winning the relevant contest.

 

1.25: Alan King has enjoyed plenty of success on the corresponding weekend in recent years and his beaten favourite PERFECT HARMONY is given another chance in this grade/company.  Alan’s Definite Article gelding ran halfway down the field in last year’s Championship Bumper event at the Cheltenham Festival in March and even though a 33/1 chance on the day, contesting that event (finished halfway down the pack) bodes well for his chance here.  CRACKING DESTINY is the obvious danger from the form lines we have witnessed to date, especially with Nicky Henderson sending just the one runner up the M1 today despite plenty of entries earlier in the week.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Doncaster card.

 

1.55:  A race which inevitably attracts, Harry Fry is looking to maintain his 100% record in the contest with WOTZIZNAME who appears to have MOUNT MEWS to beat.  Malcolm Jefferson has some really nice horses at home this season and his progressive seven-year-old Presenting gelding looks sure to take the beating this afternoon.  Philip Hobbs continues to enter his horses sparingly (only four runners during the last week) during a rare patch of indifferent form, whereby the jury is very much ‘out’ regarding the chance of Robbib’hannon.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite missed out on a toteplacepot position behind horses which filled the frame at 6/4 & 25/1.  It was a similar case the following year as the 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing behind horses that did the business from a Placepot perspective at 9/2 & 4/1.  The next 7/4 favourite won before last year’s 10/11 market leader finished last of four in a ‘win only’ contest.

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Course winner in the third event on the card:

2/2—Mount Mews (good & soft)

 

2.30: Richard Johnson has won on his only ride for Micky Hammond this season whereby connections will be hoping that BAMBYS BOY can at least get NUBE NEGRA off the bridal at the business end of proceedings.  Although eleven runners are set to face the starter, it would be churlish in the extreme to oppose this pair.  NUBE NEGRA ran Apple’s Shakira to less than four lengths at Cheltenham the last day and a repeat of that effort (without any further improvement) would be good enough to record a facile victory, for all Dickie’s urgings aboard Bambys Boy up the home straight.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame to date, stats which include one (4/9) winner.

 

3.05:  There are overnight signs that the potential ‘rag’ in the field BAILEYS CONCERTO will outrun his 25/1 trade press quote, a price which is not too conspiuous in the dead of night when writing this column.  Dianne Sayer’s twelve-year-old is offered up as the speculative each way play accordingly, albeit more logical winners in the field include BAKO DE LA SAULAIE and AMBLER GAMBLER.
Favourite factor: A couple of (2/1 & 9/4) favourites missed out on Placepot positions before the next market leader scored at 4/1.  This was followed by last year’s 11/4 joint favourites which filled the forecast positions.

Course winners in the fifth race:

1/3—Steel Summit (good)

1/3—Grandads Horse (soft)

 

3.40: DOES IT IN STYLE and PEPPAY LE PUGH look the safest Placepot options in the last leg of our favourite wager, whilst adding FIT FOR FIFTY into the equation, with Donald McCain’s runner going so well just now.  Donald has sent out nine of his last seventeen runners to winning effect, though a Placepot position will simply be appreciated here if we have live units running onto the finale.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via two gold medals and one of the silver variety.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

8 runners—Jonjo O’Neill (4/19 +18) – 12/90 – loss of 16 points

7—Nicky Richards (1/4 – slight loss) – 4/18 +11

5—Tim Vaughan (0/1) – 0/27

5—Ian Williams (2/10 – loss of 2) – 8/65 – loss of 9

3—Richard Phillips (0/1) – 2/28 – loss of 8

3—Dan Skelton (3/9 +1) – 5/62 – loss of 46

2—Jennie Candlish (0/1) – 3/22 – loss of 5

2—Ben Case (1/4 +3) – 4/26 – loss of 4

2—David Dennis (1/5 – loss of 2 points) – 3/31 – loss of 22

2—Rose Dobbin (2/6 +7) – 4/18 +11

2—Oliver Greenall (No runners at Doncaster during the last five years)

2—Alan King (0/8) – 22/92 +35

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/13 – loss of 5) – 7/74 – loss of 27

2—Michael Mullineaux (First runners at Doncaster this season) – 1/6 +45

2—Dianne Sayer (0/2) – 2/11 +7

2—Michael Scudamore (0/2) – 1/9 – loss of 4 points

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield: £52.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced