CHESTER – MAY 10
Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:
2017: £42.70 (7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed)
2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)
2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)
2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)
2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)
Average Placepot divided: £102.48 - 47 favourites - 18 won - 16 placed - 13 unplaced
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 81.2% units went through – 10/11* & 4/1
Race 2: 68.6% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* & 4/1
Race 3: 48.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2** - 9/1 – 8/1 (7/2**)
Race 4: 49.3% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 8/1 – 7/1
Race 5: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 & 6/1 (4/6)
Race 6: 52.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 11/1 – 5/1
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester:
Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (El Astronaute), 1 (Doctor Sardonicus) & 6 (Hyperfocus)
Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Rostropovich), 5 (My Lord And Master) & 1 (Kenya)
Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Tadleel), 8 (Dragon’s Tail) & 1 (Another Batt)
Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Idaho) & 6 (Muntahaa)
Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Arcadian Rocks) & 6 (Ynys Mon)
Leg 6 (4.35): 4 (Christopher Robin), 3 (Ghostwatch) & 1 (Austrian School)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
- We started the Chester meeting off with a successful permutation yesterday – let’s hope for more of the same today!
1.50: EL ASTRONAUTE attempts to follow up last year’s success in the race and with trainer John Quinn having scored with four of his last eight runners, Jason Hart’s mount is the first name on the team sheet. DOCTOR SARDONICUS should not be too far away at the jamstick, particularly if Tom Dascombe’s raider is given anything like an easy lead up front, whilst HYPERFOCUS looks a tad too big at 40/1 in a place this morning, despite his negative stall position.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.
Chester record of seven course winners in the opening race:
2/5—El Astronaute (good & good to soft)
2/4—Sir Maximilian (2 x good)
1/6—Reflektor (good to soft)
2/4—Boundsy (2 x good)
2/5—Confessional (good to soft & soft)
3/13—Powerallied (2 x good & soft)
1/4—Bossipop (good to soft)
Draw factor (Five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):
1-2-6 (9 ran-good)
3-1-6 (14 ran-good)
4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)
4-1-7 (12 ran-good)
3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)
2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)
7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-7-5 (13 ran--good)
4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
7-2-8 (14 ran--good)
6-7-4 (13 ran-good)
2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)
4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)
1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-4-1 (12 ran-good)
6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
2.25 (Dee Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event six times via the last eleven renewals in which the team has been represented and with strong candidates such as ROSTROPOVICH and KENYA this time around, Aidan looks sure to go close to extending his recent tally. That said, MY LORD AND MASTER cannot be left out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 12 recent market leaders have reached the frame. 13 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.
3.00: Ten of the last sixteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with TADLEEL and DRAGON’S TAIL (winner on the corresponding card last year) representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday. TADLEEL hails from the Ed Dunlop stable which has won with three of its five three-year-old handicappers at Chester during the last five years. Although Ed’s last seven runners have been beaten, four of them reached the frame (exact science) at 16/1, 14/1, 13/2 and 5/1, whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is an each way player today, despite an unfortunate draw. Jim is one of the two jockeys which have ridden the Dark Angel colt to victory thus far. If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, ANOTHER BATT could prove to be the joker in the pack and it’s worth noting that money was coming in for Silvestre’s mount as dawn broke over Bristol this morning.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include seven winners.
Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):
5-2-6 (10 ran-good)
7-1-8 (9 ran-good)
4-3 (5 ran-soft)
4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)
1-7-4 (8 ran-good)
1-3 (7 ran-soft)
4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)
3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)
6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)
7-10-2 (9 ran-good)
6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)
2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)
2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)
12-6-5 (15 ran-good)
15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)
5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
4-7-6 (13 ran-good)
Chester record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
1/2—Dragon’s Tail (good)
3.35 ‘Ormonde Stakes’: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals (not represented on one occasion), though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence. No trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute who has saddled the winner six times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992. That said, Michael is also on the missing list which leaves us eyeing up the prospect of another Aidan O’Brien winner in IDAHO who looks overpriced at the 11/8 quote in the trade press overnight. Indeed, favourite backers might be doing well to obtain 5/6 nearer flag fall, with MUNTAHAA seemingly the only horse standing in his way this afternoon. The form of Idaho at the top level last year at his best would surely see the five-year-old home here with something to spare.
Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have rewarded investors during the last twenty years. 17 of the last 19 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less. ‘Only’ seven of the twelve market leaders in as many years have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.
Chester record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:
4.05: Mick Channon has saddled eight of his 21 juvenile runners this season to winning effect and with ARCADIAN ROCKS having landed a trap one position, Mick’s Society Rock colt could improve the ratio still further. YNYS MON is the obvious threat from what we have witnessed to date, especially as any jungle drums beating for newcomers have not reached my ears at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 22 favourites during the last 19 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).
Draw factor (five furlongs):
2-1 (7 ran-good)
9-3-12 (10 ran-good)
6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)
2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)
3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)
4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)
6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)
5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)
2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)
4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
3-5 (7 ran-soft)
5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)
5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
1-7-6 (8 ran-good)
3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
4.35: Eleven different trainers have saddled the winner of this race in recent years, though with the likes of CHRISTOPHER ROBIN, GHOSTWATCH and AUSTRIAN SCHOOL looking to have the race between them, the negative trainer factor is not really an issue.
Favourite factor: Two favourites (3/1 & 5/2) have won during the last eleven years, whilst nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2 during the study period.
Draw factor: (Twelve furlongs): With just eight runners going to post, this event should not be affected by the draw, especially as the horses mentioned in despatches should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.
Record of the five course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:
1/2—Al Destoor (soft)
1/5—Dark Devil (heavy)
1/1—Never Surrender (good)
1/8—Fast Dancer (good to firm)
2/6—Berrahri (good & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.