Tag Archive for: Huntingdon racecourse

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with Mole Court of the most obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.58 Punchestown
  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 7.40 Huntingdon
  • 7.58 Hexham
  • 8.20 Cork
  • 8.40 Huntingdon

So I suppose it makes sense to have a look at Mole Court and Ballintubber Boy from The Shortlist, as they run in one of our 'free' races, the 7.40 Huntingdon, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 3m 1f 10y on good ground...

My initial thoughts here are that we're possibly looking at a three-horse race between (in card order) featured runner Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya, but only Mole Court won last time out and he has actually won five of his last six outings.

None of the other five won last time out either; Planet Legend was a runner-up beaten by just a neck at Ludlow (with Ubetya six lengths and two places further back), but the rest of the field failed to make the frame with both Edison Kent and Petrastar not completing their races. All runners have won at least one of their last seven outings, though.

Only Petrastar ran at this grade last time out with all of his rivals here bar Back On the Lash and Edison Kent (who both drop down from Class 2) stepping up a class today. Unusually, though, we've no yard or handicap debutants, nor any new headgear being worn or any return from wind surgery/gelding and most of the field ran just 25-27 days ago.

Back On The Lash has had almost eight weeks off, but that shouldn't be an issue here, but Edison Kent hasn't raced for almost four months and hasn't completed a race for over five months, whilst Ballintubber Boy's last race was a week shy of six months ago.

Ballintubber Boy is, however, the only runner in this field to have won over course and distance, which he achieved two starts/seven months ago. Midnight Reflection and featured runner Mole Court are the other two runners to have won at a similar trip, whilst only Back On The Lash, Edison Kent and Ubetya are yet to win here at Huntingdon. Mind you, only the 0 from 3 Edison Kent of that trio has actually raced here...

My immediate takeaways from Instant Expert are that Midnight Reflection's better efforts have come over shorter trips than this and that Mole Court's +24lbs from his last win can't be right, so I'll check.

Ah, so his mark today of 116 is technically 24lbs higher than his last hurdles win fifteen months ago, but has since won five of six over fences off marks of up to 120 last time out, so he's actually 4lbs lower than his last win, whereas Petrastar runs off 108 here, the same as his chasing mark and is now 14lbs below his last hurdles win, but that was in August 2020 and his hurdle form since then reads 776P2367 (mainly in 7-runner races, too), so it's unsurprising to see his mark falling.

Planet Legend has the showing on place stats, whilst Ubetya is unexposed under these conditions. Ballintubber Boy's numbers are a little skewed by his successes in the earlier part of the two-year period, whilst Edison Kent would probably want a bit more cut in the ground.

There doesn't appear to be much of a pace bias here at Huntingdon when you get beyond three miles...

...but there has been a slight advantage the further forward you have raced, which probably partially explains why Ballintubber Boy and Mole Court have been successful here in the past, if there recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

From the outset, I thought that featured runner Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya were the best runners in the race and there's not been any evidence shown above to sway me from that thought. There's not a huge pace bias, but those running furthest forward have fared better and my three are expected to race in that same Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya order, so that's how I'll arrange my 1-2-3 today.

The early (4pm Monday) Bet365 market agrees with my 1-2 and has Mole Court and Planet Legend at 9/4 and 3/1 respectively, but they go 10's about Ubetya and that looks like a decent E/W offer to me.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 25/03/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.20 Exeter
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 6.00 Newcastle

...from which I'm going to look at the 3.35 Huntingdon, a Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will effectively be 2m 4.3f after a 97 yard rail adjustment. The track is right-handed, the going is expected to good to soft and here's the card...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Calvic at least finish third, but Stumps or Slips, Hector Jaguen and Cloudy Wednesday all failed to get round.

Top-weight Icaque de L'isle and Family Business both drop down a class here and Calvic is the only runner not wearing any headgear or equipment.

All bar Stumps or Slips have raced in the last 8 weeks, but a 209-day absence for 'Stumps' could be an issue here. although he, like Family Business, does at least have some winning form at this kind of trip, whilst Master Malcolm and Cloudy Wednesday are both former course and distance winners...

Instant Expert looks like a sea of red...

...but Stumps or Slips and Master Malcolm do manage to emerge with some credit, especially the latter off a mark only 2lbs higher than his last win, whilst the place stats from those races...

...firmly bring the likes of Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic into the mix along with Master Malcolm. Of these four, our pace tab suggests that Master Malcolm and Icaque de l'isle are likely to be up with the pace early doors...

...with Stumps or Slips the back marker. We can then use this info when we check our Pace Analyser, which tells us that...

...those horses that race prominently have the best chance of making the frame, but they can't always catch the leaders, who win more often than any other running style.

Summary

Leaders win most often in this type of contest and Master Malcolm looks like being the front runner. He was also the standout in a fairly mediocre-looking Instant Expert and whilst not in the best form of late, I think he has a good chance of at least a place ands at 7/1, I'd be happy to take him as an E/W option here.

I suspect that Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic will also go well, but none are going to be longer to take a punt in my opinion.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/03/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.10 Huntingdon
  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 3.10 Huntingdon
  • 7.45 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

30-day form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

Of all those races above, the Cheltenham is obviously the highest-rated, but only six including an odds-on favourite are set to go to post. We do, however, have a 'free' race containing a TS qualifier, So we're off to the 1.10 Huntingdon, a 14-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will pretty much be three miles on soft ground after an 80 yard rail movement is taken into account...

Whilst 14 runners takes me a little out of my comfort zone, my initial thoughts were that both LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and that with the bookies paying four places we get find a decent E/W pick or two. Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler are the only LTO winners here and the latter comes here seeking a hat-trick.

Call Off The Dogs and top-weight Twenty-Twenty both won two starts ago and the latter was third here over course and distance last time out. Kankin, Ramore Will, Supasunrise and Doyens de Ante have all won at least one of their last seven, but lower down in the weights, Family Pot, Est Illic and Boys of Wexford have failed to win any of their last 7, 15 and 8 races respectively, whilst featured runner Dusautior, Deja Rouge and Bolberry Down are still maidens after 3, 11 and 11 attempts each.

Most of the field raced at this level last time around, but Kankin, Ramore Will and Dusautior are all dropping down from Class 4 and the latter now makes a handicap debut after three modest hurdles efforts (beaten by 24, 33 and 60 lengths) over two miles. Perhaps he's really a 3-mile chaser? He also sports cheekpieces for the first time and has had wind surgery during the 107-day break following his last outing.

Elsewhere Deja Rouge wears a tongue tie for the first time in a bid to get off the mark at the twelfth attempt. That said, i wouldn't be holding my breath about a horse whose last six runs have seen him pulled up four times, finish 5th of 9 46 lengths adrift and was last home of eleven (74 lengths down) on his penultimate start.

Dusautior's 107-day break is the longest here, whilst our oldest (13) runner Ramore Will has been away for three months with the others all having raced in the last 2 weeks to 2 months; our two LTO winners were the most recently active, one of whom, Galway Mahler is one of two course and distance winners along with Doyens de Ante. Kankin and Supasunrise have also both won here in the past, landing 2m4f chases, whilst Twenty Twenty, Ramore Will, Martalmixjac and Family Pot have all won over similar trips to this one, as highlighted by Instant Expert below...

...where despite making a first appearance here at Huntingdon, Ramore Will seems to have the best 2-year record under expected conditions and he has won 3 of his last 7 over fences. From a win perspective, Boys of Wexford has struggled at Class 5 (1 from 8 in the last 2 years and 1 from 13 overall), whilst Family Pot 'boasts' a similarly poor record over this type of trip. Galway Mahler has yet to tackle a soft ground chase, but looks well suited otherwise.

If we're going to be looking at possible E/W opportunities, then we should consider the place stats from those races above and they look like this...

...from which I'm mostly interested in choosing from...

Twenty-two races isn't a huge sample size, but we've that many similar past races to draw upon to help us see what kind of running style might work best here and the stats tell us...

...that those setting the pace are far more successful than those chasing, but that those doing most of the chasing have the best place percentages. We track how horses run and this field's last few efforts look like this (with those I've already discounted greyed out)...

...with the top four of most immediate interest.

Summary

I originally suggested that our LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and both score well on Instant Expert and pace, but Galway Mahler scores best throughout and would be my choice here, hopefully at around 4/1 to 5/1 when the market opens. Martalmixjac should certainly runs his race and be thereorthereabuts, but I wouldn't expect him to be an E/W backable price for my stipulations.

This leaves Supasunrise who has been pretty consistent (4 top-3 finishes inc 1 win from his last 6) this season under today's jockey and Doyens de Ante who needs to bounce back to form after a couple of indifferent efforts. He was in great nick last season around this time of year finishing 2211 in and around this trip and could be dangerous if getting back near those performances. This pair are hopefully to be priced around the 9/1 & 20/1 mark respectively and could be decent E/W options with the 10/1-ish Family Pot one of the more likely alternatives.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/01/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.35 Southwell
  • 3.10 Huntingdon
  • 3.25 Gowran Park
  • 4.45 Newcastle

...the highest rated of which is the 3.10 Huntingdon, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ Mares' Listed Chase over a right-handed 2m4f on good ground...

All nine of these have won at least one of their last seven outings with top weight Pink legend winning four times, but she didn't win last time out. Mayhem Mya, Plenty of Time and Sacre Coeur did though, as did Brides Hill who comes here aiming to complete a hat-trick.

Eight of the field are carrying 11st 2lbs here with the 137-rated Lady Adare best off at the weights, but Pink Legend is rated 8lbs higher than Lady Adare, but carries just 4lbs more, whilst Brides Hill is rated a further 8lbs better than Pink Legend and carries 2lbs less, so she's effectively 10lbs to 34lbs well-in with her rivals here.

Sacre Coeur was a Class 2 winner last time out whilst Mayham Mya, Plenty of Time and Midnight Mary all raced at Class 3, so all four are up in class today. The latter is just one of two previous course winners (but only 3 have raced here in total!), having won a Class 5 3m1½f hurdle here back in March 2021, whilst the other, Pink Legend is a course and distance winner by virtue of winning this race in 2022. Carole's Pass and Mayhem Mya are the only ones yet to win over a similar trip to this one...

There's not a great deal of data in Instant Exert above, but Pink Legend is certainly the eyecatcher with her 5 Class 1 chase successes and whilst her rivals haven't quite been as successful, the place stats show that most of them  have acquitted themselves quite well in this grade...

...with La Renommee doing particularly well over this trip. The fields' most recent outings suggest that the likes of Midnight Mary, Pink Legend and Sacre Coeur will be the ones setting the tempo early doors...

...with hat-trick seeking Brides Hill being held-up, but past similar races here at Huntingdon haven't shown any real pace bias...

...as I'd like to see a bigger dataset for mid-division runners before ruling them out. In a race like this where I've no draw or pace bias to work with and Instant Expert hasn't really narrowed things down, I find that the cream generally rises to the top naturally.

Summary

If we're not getting much from Instant Expert from this race by means of whittling the field down, then we refer back to the card and form. And for me, the best two horses in the race are 2022's winner Pink Legend and Brides Hill. The latter comes here on a hat-trick and is a good 10lbs well in at the weights with the former, so I'm going to agree with the 4.40pm market and suggest that the 6/5 Brides Hill beats the 9/2 Pink Legend.

Sadly these bets don't excite me, so I'm looking for double-digit odds runners as possible E/W bets and my gaze falls on the 11/1 Sacre Coeur and the 12/1 La Renommee. The former has progressed nicely over fences, finishing 1131 in her four efforts last year and could well run on for a place, as indeed could the latter who was a Listed class runner-up last time out and has a great record over similar trips with 3 wins and 3 further places from just 7 attempts at 2m4f/2m4½f.

Racing Insights, Monday 30/10/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.15 Huntingdon
  • 1.25 Leicester
  • 1.45 Galway
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 4.10 Huntingdon
  • 4.20 Leicester

...and the 'best' on paper of the trio of UK races above, looks like being the middle one, the 3.35 Huntingdon, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

General Medrano and In The Air both won last time out and Rose Sea Has and Generous Day were both runners-up, although both have won one of their last five, whilst Sea Prince and Out On The Tear are winless in five and six respectively.

None of these ran at this grade last time out with all bar Sea Prince (who drops down from Class 2) stepping up a class from Class 4. There's no new headgear on show and no horses have moved yards recently. General Medrano and Rose Sea Has both have the benefit of a run three weeks ago, finishing 1st and 2nd nine lengths apart at Uttoxeter. Sea Prince ran two months ago, but the other three have all been off the track for over five months.

Relevant NH & specific chase form is highlighted via Instant Expert...

Despite, there being a fair bit of red on the going column, most of these do have some form on good to soft. Rose Sea Has appears to have struggled at Class 3, but all do have some wins/places at similar trips to this one. If we drill down to just chase form...

...we obviously have less data to work with and Rose Sea Has' Class 3 form is repeated here, but he'll be fine on good to soft ground. Out On The Tear is well suited by the trip, especially from a place perspective.

Monday's free feature is the PACE tab and our pace analyser tool says that horses who lead in small field, short distance Huntingdon chases are the ones to be with...

and by clicking the PACE tab, we can see how these horses have raced in their last four outings...

...it looks like the pace is going to come from Rose Sea Has, Generous Day and Sea Prince.

Summary

The odds on favourite General Medrano looks like being the horse to beat based on the way he comfortably won on his chasing debut three weeks ago, beating Rose Sea Has by nine lengths. The latter is now 9lbs better off with the winner and a similar run from him could get him closer this time.

The only other one with a relatively recent run is Sea Prince and although he drops in class here, he hasn't been in the best of form and I'm wary of backing the other trio who might well need the run.

General Medrano may well be the one to beat, but odds of 10/11 don't float my boat as my pockets aren't deep enough to make a bet worthwhile, so if I was to have a bet here, it'd be a small E/W play on Rose Sea Has, who trades at 15/2 in the very early market.

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/02/22

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.40 Doncaster
  • 4.10 Huntingdon
  • 5.40 Newcastle
  • 6.40 Newcastle

...from which I'm going to look at the 4.10 Huntingdon, an open-looking 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m3½f on good ground...

GALORE DESASSENCES won at this trip on his last hurdles run (2 starts ago) and his record in cheekpieces over hurdles reads 113P1 with the '3' coming in a Kempton Grade 2 almost a year ago. He's 12lbs higher than last win, where he was comfortably clear of the pack by 12 lengths, but he could have won by more and might not be weighted out of this just yet.

WEST CORK won back to back hurdles races here in the 2019/20 season and was a Grade 3 hurdle winner at Cheltenham in November 2021 and had three subsequent decent efforts at that level before a fall 3 out at Haydock last May. he took six months off and has raced over fences since his return in November, but was last home of three three starts ago prior to being pulled up in his last two. Now back over hurdles 5lbs higher than his last Grade 3 win.

HUNTERS CALL won on his 2021 seasonal reappearance at Bangor over today's trip, but that was the highlight of his winter, until finishing a runner-up at Uttoxeter in April. He was then off for over six months, before starting this campaign back at Bangor in November when third of nine off 3lbs higher than today.

SONIGINO had a wind op during his summer break last year and won both starts back in a pair of Class 3, 2m½f contests at Chepstow in October, but found a 2-class & 10lb rise too much next/last time out, when almost 30 lengths adrift as 8th of 13 at Cheltenham two months ago. Some respite here as he's down a class and 2lbs.

GIPSY DE CHOISEL ran and won once in France (soft ground, 2m3f, May 2020), but took five races to get off the mark here in the UK, scoring over 2m (class 3, good) at Warick to end his season in mid-May. He returned in November up in class and weight to finish 5th of 9, beaten by 12 lengths and now makes a 3½f step up in trip.

BOURBALI was excellent last season, starting off over today's trip at Class 5 off a mark of 101 and finished 1432111, culminating in a Class 3 win off 124. More recently he was 3rd of 10 over 2m5f at Cheltenham in November off 126 and then 2nd of 15 at the same trip/weight at Kempton on Boxing Day. Up 2lbs and one class here but down in trip.

TOO FRIENDLY won his first two over hurdles in October/November 2021 as a 3yo, both over 2m½f on good to soft ground, but one at Class 4 and one at Class 2. More recently has been the runner-up in each of his last two, but is up in class, trip and weight here.

HYDROPLANE is 4 from 14 over hurdles, but hasn't 'jumped' since mid-March, when a 16-lengths 10th of 22 in a Sandown Grade 3 hurdle. Has raced three times over 2m on the Flat/AW since finishing 163 and now reverts to hurdles at the same class/mark as his last NH success 13 months ago.

MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE had an eight month break last year returning in late November and has finished 121 in three starts since, all under today's 5lb claimer and although he's clearly in good nick, he's 10lbs and two classes higher here. He won at this track last time out and won over this trip at Taunton in November, but the big jump in weight/class could be an issue.

Instant Expert gives us a clear overview of a field's past record under expected conditions as follows...

...and underfoot conditions shouldn't be too much of an issue here. Galore des Assences is only 1 from 5 on good, but has made the frame in 2 of 4 defeats and has won on both quicker and slower ground than this, whilst Too friendly has a pair of runner-up finishes in his last two on good ground, but wouldn't mind a bit of rain! Most of the field are largely unproven/untested at this level, although several of them have Class 1 experience (West Cork has made the frame in 4 of 6 inc 1 win) and that lack of experience also extends to this course, but those who have run here previously seem to have handled it OK with three of them sharing 3 wins and a place from 5 visits.

As for the trip, again those with experience have handled it well, although you could say that Hunters Call looks like more of a placer than a winner, but at just 1lb above his last winning mark, he's very well treated here, especially in comparison to Galore Des Assences at +12 and Sonigino at +8 etc, but at this point, I wouldn't rule any of these out from making the frame, including top-weight Galore!

We should remember that he's up 12lbs for a facile 12 length win that could have been 20 or 30 lengths had they wanted to. Now, he generally runs in mid-division or a little further back without actually been held up at the back, which is probably where six-time Class 1 runner West Cork is likely to be in a race that will probably be headed by the likes of Sonigino, although Gipsy de Choisel and Bourbali have both led in recent outings...

...and if I was to split the field into the four Geegeez running styles, I'd probably say...

Leader(s) : Sonigino (possibly Bourbali)

Prominent : Bourbali, Gipsy de Choisel, Move It Like Minnie

Mid-Division : Galore Des Assences, Hunters Call, Too Friendly, Hydroplane

Hold-Up : West Cork

We can then look at how this type of race has unfolded here at Huntingdon in the past (I now cross my fingers for some clarity!) via the Geegeez Pace Analyser...

...where leaders/prominent runners are nearly 2.75 times more likely to win and 1.66 times more likely to place than those racing further back, which is better news for the likes of Sonigino, Bourbali, Gipsy de Choisel and Move It Like Minnie.

Summary

The race itself looks fiendishly difficult to call but Move It Like Minnie interests me, because he's in great form and will race prominently enough to stay in touch, but he's massively up in weight and class and whilst he might pull out a career-best here, I don't want to back him as low as 7/2. If I then remain with the pace runners, Sonigino is the likely pace-maker and he's down in class and weight here, but might need more assistance before winning again, I'd normally be interested in him as an E/W bet, but again 6/1 doesn't excite me for that type of punt.

Gipsy de Choisel is priced at 7's, which again is a little short for me as an E/W bet, but he looks a decent type, who'll need to bounce back from a disappointing return to action at Ascot in November, which I suppose leaves us with Bourbali, who we know will be towards the head of the pack. I'm not convinced he wins here up in class and weight, but was in great form this last year and comes here off the back of two good runs making the frame at big prices. He has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 on good ground and 4 wins/2 places from 7 at this trip, so he's be my idea of an E/W option at 9/1, especially if you can get on with a firm paying four places.

There's every possibility that I've overlooked the winner in that quartet or even amongst the other five, but I didn't have a strong view on the contest as a whole and when that's the case, I tend not to pick a winner, but look for an option to make the frame at an acceptable price.