Racing Insights, Thursday 09/02/22 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

1.40 Doncaster
4.10 Huntingdon
5.40 Newcastle
6.40 Newcastle

...from which I'm going to look at the 4.10 Huntingdon, an open-looking 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m3½f on good ground...

GALORE DESASSENCES won at this trip on his last hurdles run (2 starts ago) and his record in cheekpieces over hurdles reads 113P1 with the '3' coming in a Kempton Grade 2 almost a year ago. He's 12lbs higher than last win, where he was comfortably clear of the pack by 12 lengths, but he could have won by more and might not be weighted out of this just yet.

WEST CORK won back to back hurdles races here in the 2019/20 season and was a Grade 3 hurdle winner at Cheltenham in November 2021 and had three subsequent decent efforts at that level before a fall 3 out at Haydock last May. he took six months off and has raced over fences since his return in November, but was last home of three three starts ago prior to being pulled up in his last two. Now back over hurdles 5lbs higher than his last Grade 3 win.

HUNTERS CALL won on his 2021 seasonal reappearance at Bangor over today's trip, but that was the highlight of his winter, until finishing a runner-up at Uttoxeter in April. He was then off for over six months, before starting this campaign back at Bangor in November when third of nine off 3lbs higher than today.

SONIGINO had a wind op during his summer break last year and won both starts back in a pair of Class 3, 2m½f contests at Chepstow in October, but found a 2-class & 10lb rise too much next/last time out, when almost 30 lengths adrift as 8th of 13 at Cheltenham two months ago. Some respite here as he's down a class and 2lbs.

GIPSY DE CHOISEL ran and won once in France (soft ground, 2m3f, May 2020), but took five races to get off the mark here in the UK, scoring over 2m (class 3, good) at Warick to end his season in mid-May. He returned in November up in class and weight to finish 5th of 9, beaten by 12 lengths and now makes a 3½f step up in trip.

BOURBALI was excellent last season, starting off over today's trip at Class 5 off a mark of 101 and finished 1432111, culminating in a Class 3 win off 124. More recently he was 3rd of 10 over 2m5f at Cheltenham in November off 126 and then 2nd of 15 at the same trip/weight at Kempton on Boxing Day. Up 2lbs and one class here but down in trip.

TOO FRIENDLY won his first two over hurdles in October/November 2021 as a 3yo, both over 2m½f on good to soft ground, but one at Class 4 and one at Class 2. More recently has been the runner-up in each of his last two, but is up in class, trip and weight here.

HYDROPLANE is 4 from 14 over hurdles, but hasn't 'jumped' since mid-March, when a 16-lengths 10th of 22 in a Sandown Grade 3 hurdle. Has raced three times over 2m on the Flat/AW since finishing 163 and now reverts to hurdles at the same class/mark as his last NH success 13 months ago.

MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE had an eight month break last year returning in late November and has finished 121 in three starts since, all under today's 5lb claimer and although he's clearly in good nick, he's 10lbs and two classes higher here. He won at this track last time out and won over this trip at Taunton in November, but the big jump in weight/class could be an issue.

Instant Expert gives us a clear overview of a field's past record under expected conditions as follows...

...and underfoot conditions shouldn't be too much of an issue here. Galore des Assences is only 1 from 5 on good, but has made the frame in 2 of 4 defeats and has won on both quicker and slower ground than this, whilst Too friendly has a pair of runner-up finishes in his last two on good ground, but wouldn't mind a bit of rain! Most of the field are largely unproven/untested at this level, although several of them have Class 1 experience (West Cork has made the frame in 4 of 6 inc 1 win) and that lack of experience also extends to this course, but those who have run here previously seem to have handled it OK with three of them sharing 3 wins and a place from 5 visits.

As for the trip, again those with experience have handled it well, although you could say that Hunters Call looks like more of a placer than a winner, but at just 1lb above his last winning mark, he's very well treated here, especially in comparison to Galore Des Assences at +12 and Sonigino at +8 etc, but at this point, I wouldn't rule any of these out from making the frame, including top-weight Galore!

We should remember that he's up 12lbs for a facile 12 length win that could have been 20 or 30 lengths had they wanted to. Now, he generally runs in mid-division or a little further back without actually been held up at the back, which is probably where six-time Class 1 runner West Cork is likely to be in a race that will probably be headed by the likes of Sonigino, although Gipsy de Choisel and Bourbali have both led in recent outings...

...and if I was to split the field into the four Geegeez running styles, I'd probably say...

Leader(s) : Sonigino (possibly Bourbali)

Prominent : Bourbali, Gipsy de Choisel, Move It Like Minnie

Mid-Division : Galore Des Assences, Hunters Call, Too Friendly, Hydroplane

Hold-Up : West Cork

We can then look at how this type of race has unfolded here at Huntingdon in the past (I now cross my fingers for some clarity!) via the Geegeez Pace Analyser...

...where leaders/prominent runners are nearly 2.75 times more likely to win and 1.66 times more likely to place than those racing further back, which is better news for the likes of Sonigino, Bourbali, Gipsy de Choisel and Move It Like Minnie.

Summary

The race itself looks fiendishly difficult to call but Move It Like Minnie interests me, because he's in great form and will race prominently enough to stay in touch, but he's massively up in weight and class and whilst he might pull out a career-best here, I don't want to back him as low as 7/2. If I then remain with the pace runners, Sonigino is the likely pace-maker and he's down in class and weight here, but might need more assistance before winning again, I'd normally be interested in him as an E/W bet, but again 6/1 doesn't excite me for that type of punt.

Gipsy de Choisel is priced at 7's, which again is a little short for me as an E/W bet, but he looks a decent type, who'll need to bounce back from a disappointing return to action at Ascot in November, which I suppose leaves us with Bourbali, who we know will be towards the head of the pack. I'm not convinced he wins here up in class and weight, but was in great form this last year and comes here off the back of two good runs making the frame at big prices. He has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 on good ground and 4 wins/2 places from 7 at this trip, so he's be my idea of an E/W option at 9/1, especially if you can get on with a firm paying four places.

There's every possibility that I've overlooked the winner in that quartet or even amongst the other five, but I didn't have a strong view on the contest as a whole and when that's the case, I tend not to pick a winner, but look for an option to make the frame at an acceptable price.

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