Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/03/24

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

• 1.10 Huntingdon
• 2.10 Cheltenham
• 3.10 Huntingdon
• 7.45 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

30-day form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

Of all those races above, the Cheltenham is obviously the highest-rated, but only six including an odds-on favourite are set to go to post. We do, however, have a 'free' race containing a TS qualifier, So we're off to the 1.10 Huntingdon, a 14-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will pretty much be three miles on soft ground after an 80 yard rail movement is taken into account...

Whilst 14 runners takes me a little out of my comfort zone, my initial thoughts were that both LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and that with the bookies paying four places we get find a decent E/W pick or two. Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler are the only LTO winners here and the latter comes here seeking a hat-trick.

Call Off The Dogs and top-weight Twenty-Twenty both won two starts ago and the latter was third here over course and distance last time out. Kankin, Ramore Will, Supasunrise and Doyens de Ante have all won at least one of their last seven, but lower down in the weights, Family Pot, Est Illic and Boys of Wexford have failed to win any of their last 7, 15 and 8 races respectively, whilst featured runner Dusautior, Deja Rouge and Bolberry Down are still maidens after 3, 11 and 11 attempts each.

Most of the field raced at this level last time around, but Kankin, Ramore Will and Dusautior are all dropping down from Class 4 and the latter now makes a handicap debut after three modest hurdles efforts (beaten by 24, 33 and 60 lengths) over two miles. Perhaps he's really a 3-mile chaser? He also sports cheekpieces for the first time and has had wind surgery during the 107-day break following his last outing.

Elsewhere Deja Rouge wears a tongue tie for the first time in a bid to get off the mark at the twelfth attempt. That said, i wouldn't be holding my breath about a horse whose last six runs have seen him pulled up four times, finish 5th of 9 46 lengths adrift and was last home of eleven (74 lengths down) on his penultimate start.

Dusautior's 107-day break is the longest here, whilst our oldest (13) runner Ramore Will has been away for three months with the others all having raced in the last 2 weeks to 2 months; our two LTO winners were the most recently active, one of whom, Galway Mahler is one of two course and distance winners along with Doyens de Ante. Kankin and Supasunrise have also both won here in the past, landing 2m4f chases, whilst Twenty Twenty, Ramore Will, Martalmixjac and Family Pot have all won over similar trips to this one, as highlighted by Instant Expert below...

...where despite making a first appearance here at Huntingdon, Ramore Will seems to have the best 2-year record under expected conditions and he has won 3 of his last 7 over fences. From a win perspective, Boys of Wexford has struggled at Class 5 (1 from 8 in the last 2 years and 1 from 13 overall), whilst Family Pot 'boasts' a similarly poor record over this type of trip. Galway Mahler has yet to tackle a soft ground chase, but looks well suited otherwise.

If we're going to be looking at possible E/W opportunities, then we should consider the place stats from those races above and they look like this...

...from which I'm mostly interested in choosing from...

Twenty-two races isn't a huge sample size, but we've that many similar past races to draw upon to help us see what kind of running style might work best here and the stats tell us...

...that those setting the pace are far more successful than those chasing, but that those doing most of the chasing have the best place percentages. We track how horses run and this field's last few efforts look like this (with those I've already discounted greyed out)...

...with the top four of most immediate interest.

Summary

I originally suggested that our LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and both score well on Instant Expert and pace, but Galway Mahler scores best throughout and would be my choice here, hopefully at around 4/1 to 5/1 when the market opens. Martalmixjac should certainly runs his race and be thereorthereabuts, but I wouldn't expect him to be an E/W backable price for my stipulations.

This leaves Supasunrise who has been pretty consistent (4 top-3 finishes inc 1 win from his last 6) this season under today's jockey and Doyens de Ante who needs to bounce back to form after a couple of indifferent efforts. He was in great nick last season around this time of year finishing 2211 in and around this trip and could be dangerous if getting back near those performances. This pair are hopefully to be priced around the 9/1 & 20/1 mark respectively and could be decent E/W options with the 10/1-ish Family Pot one of the more likely alternatives.