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Stat of the Day, 28th February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Emenem @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 Led briefly, chased leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, led final 110 yards, headed and no extra final 50 yards and beaten by 0.75 lengths...

Next up is Wednesday's...

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tommy G @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 5f handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £4,011 to the winner...

Why?

Trainer Jim Goldie appears to have got his string of horses finely tuned of late and in in A/W handicaps over the last 60 days, 14 of his 26 runners (53.9%) have made the frame with 8 of them (30.8% SR) going on to win, rewarding followers with 15pts profit at a healthy ROI of some 57.9%, yet over the last 4 weeks those figures are even better, with 5 placers from 11 (45.5%) including 4 winners (36.4% SR) that have been worth 8.77pts (+79.7% ROI) profit to a 1pt level stake.

More specifically, he's had a very good winter on the Tapeta here at Newcastle, a feat not many of his rivals can claim! In the past 15 weeks in handicaps here at Gosforth Park, his charges are 14 from 42 (33.33% SR) for profits of 46pts at a very attractive ROI of 109.5% and these include (of relevance today, of course)...

  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter 14/34 (41.2%) for 54pts (+158.8%)
  • males are 10/27 (37%) for 27.8pts (+102.9%)
  • ridden by Phil Dennis : 8/25 (32%) for 26.7pts (+106.8%)
  • over 5f : 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.8pts (+73.5%)
  • at class 5 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.9pts (+107.8%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 32.36pts (+323.6%)

A look at the pace and draw data on the Geegeez racecard for this race, suggests a prominent racing style suits runners over this course and distance, whilst in fields the size of today's contest, a higher draw is beneficial. According to that data, we've got stall 8 of 8 and based on past running styles of all the competitors in this contest, we're expecting him to sit in around 3rd or 4th position, so we're high and prominent!

If I had the skills of Steve, who does an excellent job illustrating his Race of the Day feature (which has already had a 12/1 winner this week!), I'd show you the graphics, but trust me they're there!

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Tommy G @ 11/4 BOG which was available in half a dozen places at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thumbs Up for Challenger Series

The BHA have announced a second season of the Challenger Series; an event that culminates in a Series Final at Haydock on Easter Saturday.

The hope is, that this exciting addition to the Jumps programme will prove a huge incentive and financial boost to the smaller yards, especially attractive and supportive of those trainers from the North.

A total of 35 racecourses will host series qualifiers during the winter, in six separate race categories. Horses rated up to 135 will attempt to qualify through a total of 85 races. Over fences we have the 2m 3f and 3m Handicap Chase, along with the 3m Mares’ Chase Series. The hurdlers have the 2m 3f Mares’ Handicap, along with two-mile and 3m Handicap Hurdle Series. There’s an attractive looking £50,000 in prize money for each of the six finals at Haydock in 2017.

Though numerous northern trainers made the inaugural finals, none found themselves in the winners’ enclosure. Despite the lack of a winner, Brian Ellison had a great day, with a pair of seconds and a third place finish for his Norton yard. Lucinda Russell arrived mob-handed for the meeting, and the likes of Donald McCain, Sue Smith and Jim Goldie were all well represented.

With fewer than 20 horses in training, Buckinghamshire’s Stuart Edmunds had a day to remember, when Petethepear took the Stayers’ Hurdle Series Final, collecting the £31,000 first-place prize. He said of the event: “It’s a great series to aim for with horses that fall just below the top handicaps, with excellent prize money. There’s a really good variety of races across the series and the spread of racecourses makes it easy to find a suitable qualifier. Haydock Park put on an excellent show for Finals Day and hopefully we’ll be lucky again this season and find another winner.”

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John Baker, Regional Director of the Jockey Club Racecourses North West, said: “We were delighted to have hosted a successful first year Challenger Series Final at Haydock Park. While the Series is a great nationwide initiative, it has certainly been a major boost to jump racing in the north and quite rightly supporting an important level of our sport by giving more meaningful targets for the middle-tier jumps population. We look forward to making it even more of a success in 2017.”

The first race of the new series takes place at Worcester today, with a qualifier for the 3m Mares’ Chase. Carlisle have a 3m Handicap Chase series qualifier on their card this Thursday. And so the road to Haydock begins.

Richard Wayman, Chief Operating Officer for the BHA, added his backing, emphasising the aims of the event: “We were very encouraged with how the Challenger Series performed in its opening year. It created a genuine, valuable target for jumps horses who fall just short of the standard required to compete at the sport’s flagship festivals and is just the sort of initiative that will support the retention of racehorse owners.”

And he expanded on his hopes for the future, when saying: “In time we hope that the Finals Day itself becomes a notable event in the jumping calendar. It is an agreed focus of the BHA and the industry as a whole that we need to do more to bolster jump racing at the grassroots and middle tiers. The Challenger Series provides a great incentive to keep jump horses in training at this level, in particular the mares who now have two series dedicated to them.”

The series looks sure to thrive, with further publicity likely to focus the mind of both owners and trainers. The festivals of Cheltenham and Aintree remain the dream for those involved in Jump racing, but over time an Easter trip to Haydock may well be pencilled in as a season ending target for many.

And the final word on the series is left to Claire Sheppard, the Racing Director for the Racecourse Association (RCA), she said: “The Challenger Series is a fantastic initiative that the RCA are delighted to support. We are excited to be providing ongoing support for the series through a dedicated web page and social media presence for this season, giving trainers, owners and racegoers a chance to follow the series and keep track of which horses have qualified.”

For more information, the Series webpage can be found at https://challengerseries.org/, with twitter followers heading to https://twitter.com/ChallengerJumps

Old Favourites Head For Ascot

Ascot will again be the focus of attention this weekend with the feature event the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

With a rich history and a stunning roll of honour, the race is one of the highlights of the Flat racing season. The likes of Nijinsky, Shergar, Dancing Brave and Montjeu are just a few of the giants to have claimed the prestigious prize. It’s an event that will be covered in depth by Geegeez and others during the week, but for now I wish to focus on one of the supporting cast; a race that is sure to attract plenty of familiar names.

Saturday’s International Stakes over seven furlongs is the latest in the Heritage Handicap series. From the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster in April, through to the Cesarewitch at Newmarket in October, these races throw together recognised equine stalwarts in ultra-competitive handicaps for the benefit of racefans and punters alike.

The prizes are valuable and much sought after by trainers and connections alike, with many contenders having become hugely popular with those that follow this great sport. Saturday’s race is no different, with a sprinkling of the ‘usual suspects’ that will have punters launching into a weekend enhancing each-way flutter.

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Glen Moss is one such contender, who remains as competitive as ever. The seven-year-old is now trained by Michael Dods (trainer of Mecca’s Angel) in County Durham, having spent time with a number of handlers over the years. Dods appears to have rejuvenated the talented handicapper, who has had two third place finishes and a victory from his last three starts. He’s fast approaching 40 career outings, and was a close fourth in this very race back in 2013. He clearly has a liking for Ascot, having finished runner-up in the Victoria Cup in 2014.

Heaven’s Guest is another ever-present in these competitive events. Richard Fahey may well run him on Saturday, and should he take his chance there’ll be plenty of interest in the six-year-old who has won nine of his 41 career starts. He won this race last year, and came oh so close to winning his second Bunbury Cup at Newmarket a couple of weeks back. This popular gelding by Dark Angel has almost earned half a million in prize money, and is running as well as ever.

With 51 starts to his name, Balty Boys has been on the go since 2011. Trained by Brian Ellison since late 2013, the seven-year-old has been slightly disappointing so far this season, though his handicap has now dropped to a rather attractive mark. He came within a head of Heaven’s Guest in this race 12 months ago, off an 6lb higher mark. He was also a terrific fourth in last year’s Royal Hunt Cup, climbing to a handicap of 112 by the end of a successful campaign. At his best, this classy fella is a Group 3 winner, and there ought to more valuable prizes to be won in the coming months and years.

If Balty Boys can be called a classy sort, then the same can certainly be said of Jack Dexter, who may well run over seven furlongs for only the third time in his career. Good enough to finish a neck second in the Group 2 Temple Stakes last year, Jim Goldie’s seven-year-old is both an extremely talented and popular racehorse. With 43 starts to his name, he has been tried at the highest level in recent years, though stepped back into handicap company for his last two outings. He ran better than his finishing position suggested at Ascot in the Wokingham, having struggled to find racing room at a crucial stage.

Personally, I have a great fondness for these prestigious handicaps, though as a punter you can often end up cursing your misfortune as your selection runs into traffic problems, or is drawn on the ‘wrong side’. Such issues are part and parcel, and merely add to the conundrum of finding a likely winner. I fully expect ‘old friends’ to play a major role in the finish, and for now it’s simply a case of choosing the right one. If only it were that simple!

Northern Trainers target prestigious Ayr Gold Cup

A thrilling finish at Ayr

A thrilling finish at Ayr

‘O Flower of Scotland when will we see’ a Scottish winner of the Ayr Gold Cup?

The William Hill Ayr Gold Cup run over six furlongs with £180,000 in prize-money is the most famous flat race in the country. You have to go back to 1975 for the last winner trained north of the border, when Ayr based Nigel Angus sent out Roman Warrior to win Scotland’s prestigious sprint. Ridden by Johnny Seagrave, he carried 10 stone to win narrowly in testing conditions.

Jim Goldie and Keith Dalgleish take up the challenge this time round and the signs are positive with both sending out a double on day one of the meeting.

Goldie saddles his stable star Jack Dexter. Third in the renewal of 2013 then back in eighth last year, the six-year-old is known to enjoy testing conditions which are unlikely on Saturday. He’s run consistently well all year, but could only manage eighth in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time. All eight career victories have come with soft mentioned in the ground description.

Dalgleish is having his best year since starting out in 2011. With half a million in prize money and almost 60 winners for the season, hopes must be high that a big win is just around the corner. His Sound Advice has only been out of the frame once in his last seven starts. He’ll be stepping back in distance having won a valuable handicap at Chester last time. He’s shown plenty of ‘zip’ in his races and was brave at Chester when bursting between horses to win. The shorter trip is not expected to be an issue if good enough.

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If the home team draw a blank, expect Yorkshire based trainers to be heavily involved in the outcome. David O’Meara took the race last year and is in the midst of another sensational campaign that has seen him win a host of group events. Highland Acclaim looks his best hope and ran with great promise last week at Doncaster, when a fast finishing fifth behind Steps in the Ladbrokes Portland.

Richard Fahey won the Ayr Gold Cup in 2006, and is always in the shake-up. He saddled Heaven’s Guest to fourth place finishes in the last two renewals, and the same horse ought to go close again. Progressive throughout the summer, he was fourth in a listed race at York last time and won a valuable handicap at Ascot in July.

Fahey also runs Rene Mathis and the undefeated Don’t Touch. The former has won two valuable handicaps during the summer and the latter swept to victory in the Great St Wilfrid Stakes at Ripon last month. This is clearly a tougher ask, but the three-year-old is on a steep upward curve. He has come in for heavy support over the last few days and looks sure to be sent off favourite.

Kevin Ryan is another Northern trainer with a great record in the race. Three wins from the last eight renewals, he also saddled Blaine to finish third last September. The horse has failed to spark so far this season, but is now off a 6lb lower mark than when chasing home Louis The Pious a year ago.

Lexington Abbey sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap, and ran well in the Silver Cup at last year’s meeting. Pat Smullen was on board on that occasion and has again been snapped-up for the ride tomorrow. He won the race for Kevin Ryan in 2012 when riding Captain Ramius.

At a huge price it would be unwise to discount Ryan’s Group 2 winner Glory Awaits. Highly tried since his second place finish in the 2,000 Guineas two years ago, he may have needed his last run at York when fading in the final furlong. He likes to blaze a trail and could be an interesting each-way proposition.

Expect a huge crowd to be treated to a thrilling renewal on Scotland’s most prestigious race day of the summer.

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2014

They do say that "you can't win 'em all" and Mad Endeavour never really looked like winning at Nottingham yesterday. It was a disappointing run on the back of Thursday's excellent performance, but that sums up the sport of racing, I suppose.

As it was, our runner finished 6th of 8 runners at the same 9/2 odds we'd earlier advised, but beaten by the best part of 10 lengths in a race I'd rather forget quickly and move on to Saturday's event, the...

4.40 Perth:

And a 7/2 BOG bet on Jim Goldie's hurdler Los Nadis. Jim has a good record here at Perth in handicap hurdles races with a record of 19 wins from 120 runners for a 15.8% strike rate, which in turn has generated 53.pts profit at an ROI of 43.6% to date. Jim has seven runners set to compete today, but six of them are going to Doncaster, leaving Los Nadis as his sole representative here.

Not that Los Nadis will mind at all, he loves coming to Perth, having already won here four times, twice over today's course and distance, so he shouldn't be found wanting for stamina today. Mind you, he's by Hernando whose progeny are 31/208 over this 3m/3m1f trip.

That's a pretty decent 14.9% strike rate, yielding level stakes profits of 50.3pts (+24.2% ROI) and if you only backed those sent off in the 2/1 to 8/1 odds range, the record improves to 18 winners from 80 (22.5% SR) for 45.7pts (+57.2% ROI) profit. From which 2/6 for 5pts here at Perth.

Los Nadis was last seen winning over course and distance here just 18 days ago and this gives rise to another couple of stats to support our selection.

Firstly, over the last 6 seasons, former Perth course and distance winners who also won last time out, have a record of 14 /51 (27.5% SR) for 26.7pts profit (+52.3% ROI) when racing in that 2/1 to 8/1 price range mentioned earlier.

Secondly, I talked a while ago about horses winning after a string of unplaced efforts and then being sent out again fairly quickly to capitalise on that return to form.

Los Nadis is one of those horses with a recent form line of 5P7641. Basically I'm looking for horses fulfilling the following criteria: UK NH handicaps and a horse that won its last race within the last 30 days and was unplaced in at least three consecutive outings prior to that win.

Horses fitting that description and priced between 6/4 and 10/1 have won 156 of 691 races over the last three years with that 22.6% strike rate generating 149.6pts profit at an ROI of 21.6%.

Los Nadis will quite possibly attempt to make all and I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't allowed to steal an early easy lead. He handles the testing conditions well and if allowed to dictate, could prove rather difficult to peg back in what might become a real test of stamina for some of his rivals.

We've got an underpriced (in my opinion, anyway!) favourite in this race, which means we get a little more juice in the price than we might have expected, which is always gratefully accepted.

So, I'm backing Los Nadis here and I'm taking 7/2 BOG with Bet365. That same price is on offer in at least a couple of other places, so you should be able to get the same odds as I've taken for this one, but if you want to check the market for yourself, simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.40 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

York Trainer Stats

M Johnston

Johnston is Just 11-from-208 at York!

With the three-day York Dante Meeting this midweek Andy Newton highlights some yards to look out for, plus some high-profile stables that don’t have the best of records on the Knavesmire. Read more

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2012

Stat of the Day 22/6/12

Stat of the Day 22/6/12

Stat of the Day: 22nd June 2012

No action for SotD yesterday as our 14/1 selection Dimashq was backed into 10/1, before being withdrawn just after lunch yesterday. So, still looking to build upon Wednesday's good result: it's "horses for courses" again as we head to Scotland's West Coast for a one-mile Class 5 Handicap for 4yr olds and over. The official going is good to firm, but with some more rain expected, it might just soften a touch from that reading. As I type this, we're expecting 10 runners to line up for the...

8.15 Ayr

Today's selection is becoming somewhat of a course / timing specialist, as its best form tends to be reserved for both the Ayr track and the June/July time in general. Trainer Jim Goldie's charge Daring Dream just seems to come to life at this time of year of his record at Ayr is very good. Since turning 4yrs old, he has run at Ayr on no less than 14 times, resulting in 3 wins and 6 places. Now he's likely to be too short priced for many of you to consider an E/W bet, but his chances of at least a place must be very good indeed.

I now want to focus on today's race in particular, aside from his overall form at Ayr. Daring Dream has actually won the last two renewals of this contest and followed last year's victory up with a good win at Newcastle off a mark 5lbs higher than today's. His last outing was also at Newcastle a couple of weeks ago and he looked like he was coming into a bit of form, finishing 4th that day, but the ground was much heavier and possibly didn't suit him.

I think Daring Dream stands an excellent chance of aiming it a hat-trick of wins in this event and I'm going to take the 11/2 BOG on offer from bet365 for the win only. Place backer amongst you can take around 6/5 (after commission on betfair) and I think that this is a very good proposition too. As always, however, you can bide your time, then come back and...

Click here for the latest odds on the 8.15 Ayr.

Sat TV Trends: 12th May 2012

Lingfield Switch To The AW On Sat

More trends and stats as Andy Newton looks at the LIVE C4 races this Saturday. Read more

Alexander ready for Cheltenham challenge

There’s a world of difference between Musselburgh and Kelso and Cheltenham. I don’t mean the 300 or so miles down the M6 and M5, but also the strength and quality of the racing. That’s why Red Tanber, winner of five of his last six races at the Scottish tracks is 100/1 for the Jewson Chase. Read more

Stat of the Day: 20th Dec 2011

Stat of the Day: 20th December 2011

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Another plunged on horse yesterday, but not a winner. Today, we head North to Musselburgh for a trainer with a fine record...

12.50 Musselburgh

Jim Goldie is a man to follow at Musselburgh, both on the flat and over jumps, and especially so outside of handicap company.

With his more mature runners - aged six to eight years - he has a 25% strike rate in the last four years, and shows a profit of 29 points.

Today, Merchant of Dubai ticks all the boxes, and looks to have a robust form chance as well.

Although he won't be much of a price, he looks to have just one horse to beat in Ingleby Spirit. Again, the racing is desperately moderate in these days running up to Christmas, so caution is advised.

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.50 Musselburgh.

TV Trends – Sat 15th October

Crystal Capella

Can Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Capella win the Champions Fillies & Mares’ Stakes for a third time this Saturday? – Andy Newton gives you all the big race trends & stats from Saturday’s LIVE TV races. Read more

TV Trends – Sat 3rd Sept

Sprint Cup - 8/10 were aged 5 or younger

Did you know that 8 of the last 10 Betfred Sprint Cup winners were drawn 7 or HIGHER? Plenty more nuggets like this as Andy Newton looks at all of Saturday’s C4 races from a trends angle....... Read more

Saturday TV Trends

Ascot Racecourse

Ascot Racecourse

Okay, Shergar Cup Day at Ascot is not everyone’s cup of tea, but there are plenty of trends to get stuck into, while we’ve also got live C4 action at Newmarket and Haydock - Racing pundit Andy Newton takes you through the LIVE races....... Read more

Trainer Watch 7th July…

Roger CharltonOver the last seven days we saw a deluge of winners from last week’s featured trainers, with the highlights being four more from Roger Varian and a monster 16/1 winner for Noel Wilson – Andy Newton takes you through this week’s batch as we head into Newmarket’s July Meeting..... Read more

Durcan Booked for Hawkeyethenoo Ride

Trainer Jim Goldie has booked jockey Ted Durcan to be aboard his charge, Hawkeyethenoo in Saturday's William Hill Ayr Gold Cup.

Ted Durcan

Ted Durcan

It's been 35 years since a Scottish trained starter triumphed in the feature sprint handicap, with the jockey hoping to be the one that successfully guides his Scottish mount across the line to claim the honours.

Durcan had his only previous outing on the four year old as the runner up over five furlongs at Epsom back in June, and has been booked by Goldie due to Kieren Fallon being switched by Luca Cumani to Newbury.

"This horse has been in excellent form. He won his last race well up in York and I know Mr Goldie has been really happy with the horse," said Durcan.

"In a race like this you need luck in running, but he's a lovely ride to have and I was delighted to ride him at Epsom where he was second.

"That was over five and it all happened in a bit of a hurry. I think the six furlongs up at Ayr should suit him and I'm really looking forward to riding him.

"Mr Goldie is a dab-hand at having his horses ready so he'll have his horse spot on. Let's hope we can have some luck in running, you need some in a race like that.

"It's been a long time since a Scottish horse won it so let's hope we can rectify that on Saturday."